NBA preview 2007, part one

So it's come to this...



as I said last week, it doesn't really feel like the season is starting because it feels like it never ended. This summer has been pretty busy and I feel so rushed into making predictions. I'm still not sure about anything. Several things that needed to be resolved (Kobe, Jermaine, Varejao & Pavlovic) still aren't. I suppose Marion and Kirkilenko are sticking for now. I don't know how Dallas, New York, Houston, Miami, and some others will clean up their huge rosters, but they have to, don't they? Good people may be out of a job.... perhaps we don't need to cut two teams. All my preparations are worthless (or not, since it's about filling that hole in your starting lineup).



Speaking of holes, there are a lot this year and I have one going on in my first ever roto league. Yes, I've never actually done fantasy before, mainly because I like to play with people I know and I can't put together 3 people who care about hoops, even for free. So I joined a public league and will hope that it means something to beat up on teenagers and fellow unemployeds I don't know. At least they care about basketball. We are a dying breed.



I feel good about four of the five spots on my starting lineup. The bench has flexibility and potential, which is good. Production must come.



Starters: Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Tim Duncan, Jermaine O'Neal, Richard Jefferson (or Andrea Bargnani)



Bench: Bargnani, Andre Miller, Walter Hermann, Jason Maxiell, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Mike Conley, Bobby Simmons, Kendrick Perkins



See, if this was a real team, I could bring Bargnani, Miller, and Hermann off the bench (with Perkins and Maxiell occasionally for muscle) and pwn. For fantasy, I have to hope Wade stays healthy and that all these young guys deliver. But now I have to fill 10 spots? That's no good.



I won't bore anyone with details, but I will link somewhere.


....... onto the real preview....

I'm breaking this up from its usual giant entry to several entries. I was going to do 30 posts for each team, but I want to start out generally, for now, and get more specific as the season starts.

I just found this link for the over/under predictions of wins from Vegas.... I'll post them here....

Dallas Mavericks 57.5
Phoenix Suns 56.5
San Antonio Spurs 56.5
Detroit Pistons 50.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 49.5
Chicago Bulls 48.5
Houston Rockets 48.5
Miami Heat 48.5
Utah Jazz 47.5
Denver Nuggets 46.5
Boston Celtics 45.5
New Jersey Nets 44.5
Toronto Raptors 43.5
Golden State Warriors 42.5
Los Angeles Lakers 42.5
Orlando Magic 41.5
New Orleans Hornets 40.5
Washington Wizards 40.5
Indiana Pacers 37.5
Sacramento Kings 36.5
Charlotte Bobcats 35.5
Milwaukee Bucks 35.5
New York Knicks 35.5
Los Angeles Clippers 34.5
Philadelphia 76ers 34.5
Atlanta Hawks 29.5
Memphis Grizzlies 28.5
Portland Trail Blazers 28.5
Seattle SuperSonics 28.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 27.5

Interesting. I always get nervous when I look at the Vegas odds and wonder what they're thinking.... usually, they know something I don't. That's why they're rich motherf**kers.

I think the Grizzlies are way too low (a lot of people have commented on this), and I would be scared to mess with the totals for Indiana, Clippers, Lakers, and Sacramento - realistically, with their talent, they all seem to be in the right place, but I can see all of them imploding and/or trading everyone away at some point. I think the Celts, Rockets, and Bulls are all slightly low, but they factored in the usual injury gamut. Hmmmm.

This one is from The Greek - it makes a little more sense in places...

Dallas 56.5
Phoenix 56
San Antonio 56
Houston 54
Denver 50
Detroit 50
Chicago 48.5
Boston 48
Utah 48
Cleveland 47.5
Orlando 46
Miami 44.5
New Jersey 43.5
Toronto 42.5
Golden State 42
Lakers 42
Washington 40
New Orleans 38.5
Atlanta 38
Milwaukee 36
New York 36
Sacramento 35.5
Charlotte 34.5
Memphis 34
Clippers 32.5
Indiana 32
Philadelphia 32
Portland 31.5
Seattle 28.5
Minnesota 20

What do they hate about Memphis that I don't see?


Anyway, here are my predictions of win totals. The way I see it, a lot of teams are grouped together, which I will differentiate in specifics later. But for now, the basics:


as of 10/22/ 07 - J LEO

WESTERN CONFERENCE (approx. wins)

1. Dallas 62
2. Phoenix 59
3. San Antonio 57
4. Houston 54
5. Utah 50
6. Denver 48
7. Golden State 44
8. Memphis 42
9. New Orleans 38
10. Lakers 34 (as of now)
11. Sacramento 32
12. Seattle 31
13. Portland 27
14. Clippers 22
15. Minnesota 20

EASTERN CONFRENCE

1. Chicago 54
2. Boston 52
3. Cleveland 51
4. Detroit 50
5. Miami 46
6. Toronto 45
7. Washington 44
8. New Jersey 44
9. Orlando 42
10. Milwaukee 38
11. Atlanta 36
12. New York 35
13. Charlotte 32
14. Indiana 30
15. Philadelphia 26

I feel good about that. It's been dated. I will date any revisions based on trades, injuries, and other developments.

But what about the playoffs? That will have to come later. I'm still struggling.... I think it will come down to matchups. Any one of those five teams in the East could make it to the finals, pending on who plays who, who's hot, who's hurt, and such. It sucks that three of the best teams play in the same division, which means that one or two of them are getting screwed in playoff time (just like last year when Cleveland had it easy and Chicago rough).

In the West, the golden triangle of Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio should still hold the conference (and league) winner. But who beats who head-to-head? I really liked Phoenix to come back hard after that raucous Spurs series, but their frugality is making me a little nervous. Dallas followed up a great season with a terrible playoffs, but was that just ill fortune? They are one of the few teams that has been able to hang with the Spurs. People are backing off the Spurs because they've never repeated, and they're older and less motivated, but they could still be the best team and they won't lose much.

And then there's the next tier of teams - Houston, Denver, and Utah. Some think Houston could go all the way to the top. Denver and Utah are feisty and could pull some upsets. Or, with injuries, they could all falter.

I won't get into the postseason until last, with more research. But for now, that's how I lay down the regular season.

AWARDS

MVP - Tim Duncan narrowly over LeBron James (also in the mix: Garnett, Nash, Nowitzki, maybe Kobe)

I think that there will be a host of people like Nash, Dirk, and LeBron, who do great work, but don't inspire voters. They've ignored Duncan the past few years and may reconsider if no one really steps up in a big way.

Dark horses: Voters love it if guys take new teams far, so KG (and Kobe if he moves and goes far) has a chance to impress. He has to split votes with Pierce though, which hurts him, and other faves like McGrady and Yao, plus all on Chicago and Detroit with their balanced attacks. I've heard Gilbert and Baron tossed out there if their teams impress, but that's a longshot. Dwyane Wade, if he stays healthy and gets Miami back near the top, is a great guy to watch here.

I would even go for Bosh if Toronto continues to prove me wrong, and Dwight if Orlando is in the race. I need better candidates. LeBron is the tentative favorite, and he can do it, but he has to keep Cleveland ahead of a better conference. I'll say Duncan for a lack of imagination.

ROY - Kevin Durant (is it even close?)

Durant seems to be the only rook anyone can think of, and why not? He's on a bad but not terrible team, he's ready to play, and he'll get tons of shots. I think he's the only rookie with a good chance to average more than 16 points. Some people are trying to come up with other candidates, but I see this as a Gasol/Paul-esque race without any major competition.

Some guys who could step up? Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, Al Thornton, Marco Bellinelli, Jason Smith, Mike Conley, Acie Law, Joakim Noah, Glen Davis

COACH - Marc Iavaroni, Memphis

It's usually a guy who takes a team supposed to be awful, and makes the playoffs, like Sam Mitchell last year. I guess the only surprise, according to Vegas, would be Memphis. I can see the head coaches of all of these teams getting it if they improve on wins: Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Sacramento. If Chicago wins more than 55 games and looks good, I think Scott Skiles would get a lot of support. But most likely, it's someone you aren't really thinkiing of right now.

DEF - Shawn Marion

Lost out by a little to Marcus Camby last year. Both of these guys are standout defenders on teams that run and gun, but if Camby was still noticed, why not Mr. Matrix? He deserves some more cred.

Other guys who could step up: Josh Smith, Dwight Howard, Samuel Dalembert (I like him and Reggie Evans to booster the hometown's D), KG (could be revitalized in the East)

6th man - Andres Noicioni

He's always been the prototypical sixth man, but he got lost the past few years because he was basically a starter for them. Now that they have some real forwards, he'll be strictly a sixth man, and they'll be better off. Leandro Barbosa is still going to be great, but is he still going to be recognized as a sixth man when he gets more minutes than several of Phoenix's starters?

Other guys who could step up: Anderson Varejao (if he decides to come back)
James Posey (only reliable guy on Boston bench?)
David Lee (if he doesn't start)
Jorge Garbajosa (same)
Jerry Stackhouse
Devin Harris or Jason Terry (if one sits)
Jameer Nelson or Carlos Arroyo (whomever sits)

Most Improved - LaMarcus Alrdidge

This is an easy choice. Aldridge came on strong when he finally got minutes, and will get plenty of time and shots this year with Zach Randolph gone (and Oden not ready). His numbers should go way up.

Some other guys came on late last year and could continue that, like Walter Hermann and Daniel Gibson. I also like Ronnie Brewer, Ty Thomas, Rajon Rondo, Andray Blatche, Gerald Green, Kendrick Perkins, Andrea Bargnani, Randy Foye, Mouhamed Sene, and even Andrew Bynum as possible sleepers.

ALL STAR TEAMS

WEST: STARTERS: Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady

WEST: BENCH: Carlos Boozer, Steve Nash, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Baron Davis, Pau Gasol, Shawn Marion

hon. mention / injury reserve: Amare Stoudemire, Josh Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul

EAST: STARTERS: Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade

EAST:BENCH: Chris Bosh, Chauncey Billups, Loul Deng, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, Jason Kidd

hon. mention / injury reserve: Vince Carter, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Ben Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Jermaine O'Neal (?)

ALL NBA

FIRST: Duncan, LeBron, Yao, Nash, Kobe

SECOND: Garnett, Nowitzki, Howard, Wade, McGrady

THIRD: Bosh, Carmelo, Boozer, Arenas, Billups


ALL ROOKIE

FIRST: Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Joakim Noah

SECOND: Acie Law, Jason Smith, Al Thornton, Corey Brewer, Marco Bellinelli

WATCH FOR (NOT READY?): Yi Jianlin, Thaddeous Young, Spencer Hawes, Brandan Wright, Morris Almond

WATCH FOR (NEED TIME): Mike Conley, Juan Carlos Navarro, Kyrrylo Fesenko, Julian Wright, Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Jared Dudley

ALL DEFENSE

FIRST: Shawn Marion, Josh Smith, Marcus Camby, Kevin Garnett, Bruce Bowen

SECOND: Tim Duncan, Rasheed Wallace, Dwight Howard, Kirk Hinrich, Trevor Ariza

POSS: Sam Dalembert, Ty Thomas, Ben Wallace, Tyson Chandler, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Des Mason, Jeff Foster, Andre Iguodala, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Devin Brown

and you knew it.....

THE ALL-UGLY TEAM

Captain: Sam Cassell ........... (honorary: Tyrone Hill)

Promising Rookie: Oleksiy Pecherov (has been compared to Stewie Griffin)

Starters: Cassell, Reggie Evans, Mehmet Okur, Charlie "The Hills Have Eyes" Villanueva, Hedo Turkoglu

Bench: Ben Wallace, Chris Kamen, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry, Darrell Armstrong, Bo Outlaw, Walter Hermann (not really ugly but bizarre looking)


Yup. More specific team previews coming up.