Griffin! Everyone else! It's the 2009 NBA Draft!

What a glorious day it is. The annual draft is a big festival in my house and in some corners of the sports world. This year, though, it's a little unpredictable. And weak. I shouldn't be as excited because teams are selling picks and none of these guys are likely going to be stars, save for a few. But I am excited, as always, because this means a new crop of young ballers coming in and it's fascinating to see where people go.

I actually think this year's draft is useful for people who realize that it sucks. If that doesn't make sense, well, maybe I should say that it works if you go in with lowered expectations. Normally, you might expect to find a starter or a major contributor up until the midway point. Not this year. If you need a little bench help, however, and a lot of teams do, it's an effective place to find people. Especially point guards. Teams that were hoping to get the big prize (Blake Griffin) are just going to have to face the fact that they're not getting an impact player. They need to look at weak spots and depth issues, as opposed to major holes.

I usually go with my own mock of what will happen and my opinion on what should happen. I have no idea, so I'm just giving out advice this year. Yeah, I didn't follow college ball as closely as I have, but the elite group is small and I'm pretty sure I've seen them in action.

Here goes:

1. Clips - They will take Griffin and they should, although, if the Not Sonics wanted to offer Durant, I think that works out for both teams, pending on what the details are. If he's not going to stay, it makes sense for the Okies to get a local kid who will. And it solves what positions people play. But the easier thing to do for the Clippers is just to take Griffin and do anything they can to get Zach Randolph out of town. Or just pull a Steve Francis and cut him.

2. Grizzlebees - They are depressed because Griffin could have been the last piece to a nice young lineup and there are no big men who even come close after him. Oh well - they don't deserve it. Not after giving up on a rare franchise big guy for nothing when he was still young. They need to realize that no one here can save them, so they should just trade down and improve their bench. If they go down with Minnesota, they can pick up Jordan Hill, who will be a nice energy guy to use with Gasol and Arthur. They can also pick up backups on the wing and point with later selections. Haseem Thabeet would be a nice tandem with Gasol, but he doesn't add any offense and they still have a hole at PF. They should just go for depth now and hope that next year, they can get a decent big man.

3. Not Sonics - They could go in many directions, and none of them are bad. They could take Rubio if they aren't sure Westbrook is a real point guard. They can take Curry and maybe split it up. They can take Harden, which is easy enough. Or they could take Thabeet if he's available. I like Thabeet here because they don't have a true center or shot blocker; they have a lot of forwards. Harden would be just fine, but they might be able to find a decent shooter in free agency. I have a feeling that Rubio will be gone, or at least should be... if not, they could trade down with Minnesota too and get some more picks and still get a decent guard.

4. Kings - Rough times for Sacto. The Kings really need a point guard and someone who can revive interest and they're just on the outside of getting Rubio. They don't really have anything to trade up for, but they can hope he falls. I don't think he will. The Wolves are desperate now and have more assets to move ahead. That leaves them with the next few guys: Flynn, Evans, Curry. I don't know if Evans or Curry will be real point guards; I think they'll be good players but this team needs a true point. I like Flynn but this may be a little high. They are in a rough spot. I'd say Flynn with a gulp.

5 & 6. Wolves - It was a little weird for them to pick up two consecutive picks in a crummy draft, but they're not done. They can probably convince Memphis or OKC to trade so they can get Rubio. Originally, I thought they would target Thabeet to platoon with Love and to let him come off the bench, but they are now desperate for guards. Really desperate. If they can keep # 6 and get Rubio at 2 or 3, they'll be in good shape. The actual 5th pick then depends on the trading partner: OKC would take Harden or Curry, while Memphis would likely spring for Hill. That would leave the Wolves to pick up a two guard at # 6. The good news is that one of Curry, Harden, or Evans has to be available in this scenario. I like Harden the best out of those guys, then Curry, then Evans.

Here is my advised top 6: Griffin, Rubio (to MIN), Thabeet, Flynn, Hill (to MEM), Harden.

7. Warriors - It seemed like they were taking a point, and that's smart. Even though it looks like they are trading Crawford for Law and Claxton now, those guys haven't done much. They will likely choose amongst whomever is left between Flynn, Evans, Curry, and Jennings. I like Flynn, although he could be gone. I think this is a decent place for Evans - he's not really a point, but neither is Monta Ellis, so maybe it will work. Curry might be too much like Ellis. Jennings is a strong possibility and I would see that. I don't think they'll go for a big guy unless he's an outside shooter type, and there aren't any here.

8. Knicks - I have a feeling that some way, they're going to steal Curry and piss everyone off. In my advised projections, he's still here. This is a great fit for him - he doesn't have to worry about defense, they can play him at the two and work him in, and D'Antoni will make sure he gets shots. I just think it happens. If he's gone, they may look at Flynn, Jennings, Holiday, or Teague. I don't know if they will be as happy with any of those guys besides Flynn. Some are saying they like Hill, but is he that different than David Lee?

9. Raptors - They needed wings before they traded Kapono, and they really need them now. I actually think they'll try to get Marion to come back at a reduced rate if no one offers him much and can do it, but even then, they need more depth. Evans would be nice if he was here, but I doubt it. They will likely choose between DeRozan and Clark, maybe Henderson. DeRozan has some skills and maybe the most potential. He's a decent choice here. They don't have any two guards, so he can get time right away.

10. Bucks - I know Simmons laid out the awful history of the Clippers and their penchant for drafting too many forwards. Well, I'd like to present a much smaller history of the Bucks, with special attention paid to point guards. Consider how few teams have been managed as poorly over the past decade:

2003: Having just traded Ray Allen for Gary Payton, the Bucks decide to let Payton walk, giving them... not much. They also decide to let Sam Cassell go for not much, and he helps Minnesota have its best season ever. After giving up on two all-star point guards, they have to draft T.J. Ford.

2004: Ford turns out to be decent, leading the Bucks to a surprise playoff appearance.

2005: Ford also turns out to be injury prone, as he misses most of the season. The Bucks miss the playoffs, but they win the lottery. Despite his injury woes, the Bucks remain committed to Ford as their leader and pass on Chris Paul and Deron Williams with their pick.

2006: Even though Ford comes back and they make the playoffs again, they suspend their commitment to him JUST A YEAR AFTER PASSING UP CHRIS PAUL TO KEEP FORD when they trade him to Toronto for Charlie Villanueva. They like how backup Mo Williams handles himself, even though he's more of a scorer.

2007: The Bucks miss the playoffs by a wide margin. Despite this turn, they decide to re-sign Mo Williams to a sizable contract, even though Miami really wants him to complement Wade. They also re-sign Charlie Bell when Miami tries to get him, even though he doesn't start. Then the Bucks draft Yi Jianlian, and for all the things you've heard about him and/or can make fun of him for, I just want to focus on this: he plays the same style and position as Villanueva. They need a small forward, but they pass on Julian Wright, Al Thornton, Thad Young, and others to get Yi.

2008: The Bucks still suck, but they finally seem to realize that Yi doesn't fit, several months after I (and many people) have been complaining about it. They make a decent trade to get Richard Jefferson from New Jersey for Yi and Bobby Simmons' horrible contract. I did mention his horrible contract, right? No? How about Dan Gadzuric? No? Silly me. I got so caught up in the point guard revolving door, I must've forgot.

So, despite picking up Jefferson, the Bucks still draft a small forward in Joe Alexander. They could have used a bruising big guy to take pressure off of soft bigs Villanueva and Bogut, but whatever. It's not the worst move they've made.

Finally, several months after signing him to a big contract and apparently committing to him as their point guard of the future, the Bucks dump Mo Williams for basically nothing. Actually, nothing would be the ideal. They take back Luke Ridnour's salary, even though the trade is supposed to free up time for late steal Ramon Sessions.

2009: The Bucks start the season by giving Ridnour time ahead of Sessions. Strange. They still lose.

The Bucks finish the season by trading Jefferson for salary dumps. They claim that they need the money to keep Villanueva and/or Sessions. So yes, they used up that 2007 # 6 pick for NOTHING, essentially. And they hurt their chances for keeping Sessions by taking on Ridnour and playing him, even though they didn't need him in that Mo trade, and didn't pick up anything in that trade, despite them having the only important player in that trade. WHY DIDN'T THEY PICK UP AN EXPIRING CONTRACT OR A YOUNG PLAYER OR JUST NEVER FREAKING RESIGN MO WILLIAMS IN THE FIRST PLACE???

This team has been going in a strange cycle of suck and it hasn't stopped. Do they even have any fans left? If so, why???

I'm guessing they will take another point guard this year. They have to, just to keep this comedy of errors going. Even if they think that they can bring Sessions back now (which was the decent move all along), they'd like to be safe. They can never settle. I would advise them to stop existing altogether, but I suppose the answer here is taking Flynn, Jennings, Holiday, or Teague, in that order. They like Teague, I hear. Of course they do.

11. Nets - They really need a wing. They had a laughable trio of washups at the 3 last year, presumably because they are holding it open for LeBron. Well, it might help to get someone anyway, and they can always trade or move Vince. I like Earl Clark, but Gerald Henderson is fine here too. If DeRozan slips this far, he'd be a solid pick.

12. Bobcats - They need a two guard, preferably one who can shoot. Henderson seems like an easy choice. DeRozan again, if he slips, is good. I hear they like Terrence Williams, but he's a little unpredictable.

13. Pacers - They need a power forward who can play and score inside, and there aren't many this year. James Johnson is more of a tweener, and this is too high for Hansbrough (and please, Larry Legend, they have enough white guys). DeJuan Blair would be an easy pick if they weren't scared about injury problems, but honestly, who else can they go with? He's what they need. I hear they like point guards, but they already have a bunch.

14. Suns - They just traded Shaq and have been linked to a lot of guys at this spot. They haven't had a real backup for Nash these past few years and it's hurting him. He might be gone soon, too. This is the draft to get young points, so why won't they? They have wings and a few bigs, and they could play small. It depends on who is still around. I think Flynn will be gone. Jennings could be a bust but has talent. Holiday is raw but has potential. Maynor is solid all around but unspectacular. Teague is nice but maybe not a real point. Lawson is solid but probably more of a backup. I'd say Jennings if he's there, then Holiday, then Maynor.

That concludes a weird lottery....

15. Pistons - They haven't had a true 7 footer since... well, Darko, but an effective true center? Years ago. They are rebuilding, and even though I think they will do the most in free agency and try to win soon, they should think about B.J. Mullens. They have undersized forwards and they can pick up more of those, but he could develop if they use him right.

16. Bulls - They could use a big man who can score, although that's rare in this draft. I like James Johnson here - he's a tweener, but he would only need to come off the bench and he can shoot. If Blair slips this far, they ought to snatch him up.

17. Sixers - First of all, I would like to say thank you to the hometowners for bringing back the old logo and the red, white, and blue color scheme. I always thought of it as the real logo. A team in Philly representing something patriotic really should stick with our national colors, right? The unis ever since they got rid of Barkley have been a mess.

I'm guessing that the Kapono trade means that they are not going for shooters. They could use a point, especially if Andre Miller leaves, and for the future. I like Maynor and Lawson and would be happy with either. Jennings if he slips, and Teague are possibilities.

18. Wolves - I'm expecting this pick to be traded. Memphis might go for Budinger or another wing here. OKC would go for whatever they didn't get earlier - a big guy or a shooter.

19. Hawks - Even though they picked up Crawford, they may want a guard. I don't know if they bring Bibby back, plus there aren't any big guys left here who can help them. Teague is a nice pick because he can shoot and they need that. Lawson and Maynor would be fine.

20. Jazz - Please, please don't pick Hansbrough. You have enough white stiffs in your history. Even if Boozer leaves, they can use Millsap and Kirilenko at the four with better results. I'm thinking a three would help better - Kirilenko and Korver do well off the bench or at other positions, Harpring is getting old, and that's the spot they need. A good shooter like Budinger or Daye would work. Daye could be like a young Rashard Lewis for them.

21. Hornets - They need big man depth, but that's about gone at this point. Instead, they might as well just get a backup point because there won't be much else left. They did well when CP had another point guard who could shoot with him. Teague and Lawson would be decent picks here.

22. Blazers - They traded up for two spots. Why? I don't know. They like to move. I think this is where Hansbrough should go, and it fits him well. He can board and bring energy off the bench to relieve Aldridge. They don't want more projects, and he's ready to play.

23. Kings - They will certainly use their first pick on a point, so here is a chance to get some big man depth. Too bad it's almost gone. They can take a crack at Hansbrough if he's available, but I doubt it. They might have to swing for Taj Gibson or Jeff Pendergraph.

24. Mavericks - They would like a big guy, too, but there won't be much to be had here. No, they can go to free agency for that. I think they should consider a point to serve under Kidd, because Barea and Terry are more shooters. If Terrence Williams slips this far, it would be great. He could learn under Kidd and not have so much pressure. Same for Holiday. Maynor or Lawson would be fine, but I think all of these guys could be gone. That might leave them with Nick Calathes, who is going to Greece but could be a nice prospect down the road. Otherwise, they could take another wing for depth. Sam Young, Derrick Brown, Ellington could fit.

25. Not Sonics - see 18. They could get Ellington here and that might solve some shooting issues. Or they could take another foreign guy to add to their stable.

26. Bulls - With their second pick, the Bulls can do more for their depth. I'm interested to see what they do over the summer, and they might have to prepare for that now. If they try to keep Gordon, they they probably have to move Hinrich. A backup point would be nice here then. If they don't keep Gordon, a backup wing like Ellington would fit. I didn't expect them to keep Gordon at the beginning of the season and they can really just give his minutes to Hinrich and Salmons. But then what about Deng? Is he okay? A lot of questions here. They should take a guard to be safe.

27. Grizz - Again, they need depth. Any wings or points left over would be a nice break for them. Young, Brown, Summers are all decent here. If the major points are gone, maybe they consider Darren Collison or Patrick Mills.

28. Wolves - This pick might be traded or not. The Wolves would probably go for a wing if they keep it. Young is good. DaJuan Summers is a poss, as is Omri Cassipi, or Ellington for some depth.

29. Lakers - It sounds like they're trading this. I would personally take a shot at Toney Douglas. He's not a point guard but they don't need him to be, and he was a good scorer/shooter.

30. Cavs - They made the splash with Shaq but the Orlando series proved they have many holes. They could use a big man who can shoot from outside, or maybe another small forward who can do that and defend to play next to LeBron. There isn't anyone special left here, but they might take a look at some of these wings.

Well, that's it. I have no idea if they will think like me or not. Probably not, I am always horrendously confused... and that's what makes this day so great.

A new direction

The Sixers' trade of Reggie Evans for Jason Kapono looks pretty simple, straight up: they traded a guy who can't shoot for a guy who can shoot threes. They dumped a big guy for a wing because they needed shooting and they have big guys with Elton Brand and Jason Smith coming back.

I had to notice, however, that this is the first move since they hired Eddie Jordan. It might not seem like a big coaching change, but it gives me hope. I wasn't initially with all their coaching moves this year. I thought they gave up on Maurice Cheeks too early and that their early season slump wasn't really his fault; they just couldn't build an offense around Brand (who was still hurt). His firing coincided with them playing small and fast, and they won more in the second half. Jordan, however, was also probably fired too quickly. Washington sucked, but they were destroyed by injuries. Jordan took a team of offensive (well, selfish) minded players with a few defenders (with no offense) and made them into a regular playoff team. He knew how to run an offense with limited guys. In the end, these were two coaches who deserved better, so maybe it all works out.

I do know that Jordan might have good ideas for the offense. He's talked about moving Brand around, doing more with him and Iguodala, and trying to get more of a rhythm going. This trade allows them to (hopefully) move people back to good spots. The Sixers did well by going small and running the past two years, but that will only get them so far. As I've said before, it's nice but it has limits, and that's why they needed Brand. Now, they could potentially start Kapono or Thad at the 3, move Iggy to the 2, move Green to the bench (please), and then go smaller on the SECOND unit, instead of the first. They have the hustle and speed that's good for the bench, but they've been using it too much. The starting unit has to be bigger and better offensively. It seems like they are moving that way.

I'm hopeful then that Jordan can figure out some things. Next up is the draft. It's not deep, but there are a lot of point guards available, and the Sixers can grab someone nice to eventually replace Andre Miller... or now, if he leaves. If they get a guy who can shoot (I like Ty Lawson), that adds to the new direction. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.

WOW... a defense of the big SB

Oh wow. This is too good. A man got a link on Simmons by trying to argue with him that Shawn Bradley was good. As the writer of a blog named after SB, you knew I couldn't resist.

In short, all I can say is .... SHAWN BRADLEY WAS TERRIBLE! I WATCHED HIM FOR YEARS! Yes, he had moments, and he blocked a few shots, but he was a huge bust. There is a legitimate reason we like to make fun of him.

Here's the post:

http://mormonhusbands.blogspot.com/2009/06/defending-shawn-bradley-swatting-bill.html

Here's my response, in case he took it down (it's clean, and civil, but I did go on for a while):

"Don't get me wrong, sir: Shawn Bradley was a cool guy, and always fun, so much so that I named my own hoops blog after him. But he was an awful, awful player. You can crunch numbers all you want, but if you ever watched him play for the Sixers, he was dreadful.

I like that someone has the chutzpah for defending him, and I'll admit that his numbers don't look so bad compared to other guys. Blocked shots on their own, however, are a pretty meaningless statistic. Lots of tall guys have them but it's not as important as good post defense, which requires some strength and quickness, which he didn't have. Marcus Camby might not have any offense and gets a lot of empty blocks, but he also rebounds well and is about a million times quicker. SB got muscled around and scored on far more often than he blocked shots. I saw it. It was not pretty.

Example: When the Pistons won the title, Ben Wallace got a lot of credit for blocking shots, but it was Rasheed's man defense that allowed him to do that. That's the kind of defense you want, not just blocks. Yes, SB never played with another good defensive big guy, who might have helped him block shots, so that's rough for him, but it doesn't take away the fact that he was NOT a good defender.

His rebound numbers surprised me, but that's a bit of a misnomer as well. Other guys like Smits and Illgauskas were primarily jump shooters who played away from the basket. Divac and Sabonis did that as well, plus they played on loaded teams where their passing ability was key. SB never had a good midrange jumper or any passing ability. He just hung around the post, or tried to, as people pushed him around. Any big guy who plays a lot of minutes can average a decent amount of rebounds. Even Kwame averaged about that many boards a game when the Wizards were trying to develop him and gave him time. To borrow a common line from Simmons, Jermaine O'Neal averaged about that this year and he's pretty much dead. I'd be more interested to see his rebounds-per-minute average.

Look, the guy had a raw deal, for sure. Those Sixers teams were beyond terrible and the front office had no idea what it was doing. I think he eased up a little after he got out of town, and didn't have all the pressure. I also think Dallas figured out the right way to use him, as a role player who wasn't needed for much besides blocking shots. If you want to say that he was good early on his career, however, I'm sorry. I watched those teams. As bad as they were, he wasn't the solution. He was one of the nicest guys to ever play here, and I always root for him, but there's a reason he's the butt of those jokes."

The end.


This is an example of how numbers can really skew things. Statistically, he appears to be a decent center. And for a while, there weren't a ton of great centers and people continued to try to go big even when they didn't have talented big guys. But please, please, please do not try to put him in a class with Marcus Camby or Rik Smits or Zydrunas Illgauskas. Camby is skinny but he doesn't get pushed around, plus he's very quick. He rebounds extremely well. Smits and Illgauskas had offensive skills. SB had NOTHING offensively. NOTHING.

I don't get how people can look at this and say he was a decent defender. He blocked some shots. So did every 7'4" or over guy. It doesn't count for his atrocious man defense, because he got pushed around and had no lateral quickness. You have to be strong in the post. He might block Shaq 3 times in a game, but then Shaq would easily dunk on him 12 times. I saw a game at the ol' Spectrum against Orlando in the Shaq-Penny days. Shaq tossed him around like a rag doll. He did that to a lot of people back then, but that was a routine for SB. If he had another good post defender, he might have found a niche blocking shots (like he did later in his career). Sadly, he had undersized Clarence Weatherspoon, a score-first guy and bad defender, next to him.

(Also, no one outside of Philly remembers this, but Sharone Wright, the guy they drafted the year after Bradley, was even worse. He did nothing and was out of the league in 4 years. He looked like he might be a physical post presence, but no dice.)

well this is unplanned

Orlando.

Seriously.

That was one of the more intriguing playoff series in a while. I did not see it coming. The Magic took down the Cavs right away and didn't let go. They are dependant on shooting (a usual killer at some point) but they haven't been cold yet. They struggled with the Sixers in the first round and yet managed to embarrass Cleveland. HOW DOES THAT WORK??

I'm confused. Looking at their series vs. how the Lakers struggled against Houston and Denver, it seems that Orlando is in a good spot. I said before the season that Andrew Bynum was the key, but the Lakers have done a lot without him. He might be useful in this series, if he can push Howard a bit, but he hasn't shown much lately. It seems the Lakers wouldn't be so unfazed by Orlando's small lineup, because they can just use Odom, but the Cavs mysteriously failed to do the same thing with LeBron.

Jameer Nelson's pending return might be key. The Lakers struggle with quick scoring point guards. They have for years. If he's even decent, that could be a problem. Even Rafer Alston could take advantage of these guys.

Where to go? I think the Lakers have more of a sense of urgency. I also think that Phil Jackson is smart enough to make sure that they don't double team too much and leave shooters open like other teams did against Orlando. I know Kobe is angry over what happened last year and knows that, even though his team is fairly young, he may not have more chances. But I also know that a team that got beat up down low last year is going to struggle with Howard. Pietrus can give Kobe trouble, and Nelson could terrorize them.

I guess I'm going with the Lakers in a high-scoring series. I want to pick against them, but I just don't see Orlando pulling more tricks out. Lakers in 7.




And on a side note...

I feel good for the Clippers, even though most people have given up on them. I just hope there's a way they can get new management. Would it be terrible if someone overtook them like a South American country? Guerilla style? Eventually, Donald Sterling has to do something that lands him in jail, right? This is a talented team. It really is. I have a feeling that the commissioner will realize that, in this time of economic woe, he has the potential for two successful franchises in LA and some cash to be made. If he doesn't, he's missing out. I am crossing my fingers that someone will realize that it needs to end now.

I also hope that the Kings capitalize on Memphis' stupidity and move up to take Ricky Rubio. They really need him. They're in awful shape and he's the only guy outside of Griffin who can revive interest in this draft.