Leo's Big NBA Preview 08-09, Full Edition

Last time I gave win totals, finals, and major awards. Here's more in depth capsules of each team.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.


1. Los Angeles Lakers

As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.

As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.

2. Utah Jazz

Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.

3. New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.

4. Houston Rockets

Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.

5. San Antonio Spurs

For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.

6. Phoenix Suns

I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.

7. Dallas Mavericks

I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.

8. Portland Trail Blazers

I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.

9. Denver Nuggets

After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.

10. Los Angeles Clippers

After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.

11. Golden State Warriors

I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.

12. Sacramento Kings

The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves

Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.

14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces

Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.

15. Memphis Grizzlies

After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.


EASTERN CONFERENCE

In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.

1. Boston Celtics

The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....

2. Detroit Pistons

I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.

4. Orlando Magic

They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.

5. Philadelphia 76ers

With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.

6. Toronto Raptors

From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.

7. Atlanta Hawks

It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.

8. Washington Wizards

Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.

9. Chicago Bulls

Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.

10. Indiana Pacers

This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.

11. Charlotte Bobcats

Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.

12. Miami Heat

I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.

13. Milwaukee Bucks

I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.

14. New York Knicks

The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.

15. New Jersey Nets

They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.


PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN

LAL over HOU
NO over UT

LAL over NO

BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL

BOS over ORL
DET over CLE

DET over BOS

FINALS: LAL over DET in 7

Wait, I already said that. Oh well.

Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:

ALL NBA

LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe

SECOND

Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade

THIRD

Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson

ALL ROOKIE

Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden

SECOND

Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts

ALL DEF

Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul

ALL STAR TEAMS

WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant

EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton

6th Man: Andre Kirilenko

Most Improved: Ramon Sessions


EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.

As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?

As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.