As the holidays continue, I discovered that I had not wrote anything in a while, despite some juicy trades and the disappointing start of the Sixers. I don't like to really get into the season until January, or at least, in with my usual super intensity, but several things have already been determined:
1. The Celtics and Lakers will be awesome again.
2. The Cavs are excellent. But LeBron is making everyone in Cleveland nervous... or is he?
3. Much like last year, there are 9 good teams in the West and one of them will be left out. Then there are 6 who are young and building.... and have no shot.
4. Knick fans are more alive than they've been in years.
Let's go through the big changes. I'm disappointed in the Sixers, obviously, but I really hated to see Coach Mo go. He's classy and he got them to play a lot harder, and much better than expected, the last two years. I really thought they could give him more time. They look out of sync, but they're still in it, and I didn't think they would be super great this year. They need time to jell and to figure out where young guys fit in. They need another shooter on the outside, too. This was a quick pulling of the plug on a guy who got some votes for top coach last year.
As sad as I am to see of the great Sixers go, I'm pulling for another Leo, or at least a DiLeo. He might have some luck by changing things. The big problem is offense. I figured Brand and Iggy would both be able to get 20 a game, as they had been before, but no one is above 16 right now. Last year, I thought they really needed a post scorer / big man shooter to anchor that run-heavy offense, and Brand seemed to fit perfectly, but now it doesn't always look that way. I suppose they were best at being scrappy and going with a small offense with Thad at PF.... but then, where would that leave them in the long run? They were better than I thought they'd be last year, but I didn't see a terrific future without that big man. Now it's hard to tell where exactly they should be going.
Thankfully, they're not out of it, and there are only really 4 teams to be sure playoff faves in the East, although I do like Atlanta (feeling a little vindicated after everyone else said the Hawks would slip). But still, there's tons of room for them to get in without anyone looking great in the last few spots. I'm keeping my hopes up. Thad came out strong, which was good. Speights has shown some offense in a limited amount of time. They really, really need outside shooting. I don't wish the Korver trade reversed, but they do need to find a wing or guard who can shoot like that.
As for trades, the Knicks' revamping shouldn't have been surprising, but after they started well, it was a little odd to see them give up on that so quick. But they saw a way to get better for the future, and in the short term, Al Harrington fits their system nicely. They're really hoping for good draft picks and free agents in the coming years. Which might happen now....
On the other side of the country, the Clips haven't shown much life. Fortunately, unlike the bad Clippers of yesterday, they do have some talent. Their starters look great on paper, but this team has no chemistry or depth. I continue to hope that they trade Kaman for some help and then dump Dunleavy or at least get him to play a more freewheeling style. Zandolph was surprisingly good in D'Antoni's fast system, and everyone else seems to be suited for a quick pace. This can still work, even if Baron Davis is pulling a GOB Bluth and telling everyone he made a horrible mistake.
And up north, Golden State continues to mystify with how many wings Nellie can acquire and then throw out on the floor. Or not. Anthony Morrow exploded and then vanished just as quick, Bellinelli finally showed up in a real game, and then Jamal Crawford arrived as another two guard who will shoot at any time. Meanwhile, there are no inside scorers or true points. Nice. Even if they can fit Crawford and Monta Ellis together when he comes back, how do they balance minutes? Maybe they'll realize it wasn't worth it to get Magette when they had all wings anyway, and they've since added more. Weird team.
The other puzzling trade was the Suns taking advantage of the Bobcats. Jason Richardson gives Phoenix a wing who can shoot and pick up some outside scoring, while the Bobcats, who seem to always need scorers, traded their best one for two role players... not to mention Jared Dudley, who always got minutes. I guess Charlotte wants to use more two-point-guard sets (though that may also be a way to showcase Felton while they shop him) and really wanted a post creator. But Diaw has to match his one great season to even come close to giving this trade value. Mr. Jordan, you can start paying attention any day now.
Meanwhile, Phoenix can play Richardson at the 2 or 3 and give the Suns' perimeter a rest. They also realized that instead of finding a normal backup for Nash, they should just make sure Grant Hill is on the court when he's off as the de facto ball handler. When they don't have Shaq, they might considering going small again with Amare and Matt Barnes up front.
I feel bad because Phoenix and Dallas started off with problems but look much better now, and I think they could be contenders, but they're going to have to fight just to get in. Then again, no one besides the Lakers has really stepped up in the west. San Antonio quietly integrated new players and survived a rough stretch of injuries, so maybe I shouldn't have counted them out. Still trying to get a read on Utah and Houston as they deal with typical injuries. New Orleans and Portland are still learning, but doing well enough to be in the top teams.
I still hold a spot in my heart for Iverson, so it's rough to see Denver thrive without him, especially since they haven't really replaced Camby.... while Al's scoring drops big in Detroit and they're not the favorites I thought they'd still be. Alas. I hope he hasn't totally killed his future plans.
More trades are coming for sure. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland stays pat or tries to get another shooter. They might want another big guy who can shoot, since they only have three post guys they really use, and two of them can't score. I think every team but the Celtics can think of a trade that might help them, so this could be a crazy time.
I like my picks so far, except for the Pistons. They could still pull it together, but Boston and Cleveland are the real deal in the east. LeBron is the easy MVP, although Dwyane Wade has come back so strong. O.J. Mayo is the only rookie averaging 20, and that's a rare number for rookies these days, so I can feel good. Derrick Rose has probably impressed me more, though, and if he gets the Bulls in the playoffs, he has to win it (because that team is chaotic). I am disappointed in the Wizards, who managed to weather injuries before. At least they're picking up young guys. I think my COY would be Lawrence Frank, because he's the one guy in charge of a team that's really ahead of where I thought they'd be, but Mike Brown, Stan Van Gundy, and Gregg Poppovich have been taking good teams and doing more with less, i.e. talent and injury problems. D'Antoni and Skiles can jump in if their teams make the playoffs.
ALL NBA so far: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Dwight Howard, Garnett
2ND: C Paul, B Roy, Nowitzki, Duncan, Bosh
ALL ROOK: Mayo, D Rose, Beasley, R Westbrook, Rudy Fernandez
2ND: M Gasol, DJ Augustin, Mario Chalmers, Brook Lopez, Oden
DEF: Dwight Howard
MIP: Devin Harris
6TH: Jason Terry
I will look over all stars and post my choices before the big day.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Leo's Big NBA Preview 08-09, Full Edition
Last time I gave win totals, finals, and major awards. Here's more in depth capsules of each team.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.
As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.
2. Utah Jazz
Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.
3. New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.
4. Houston Rockets
Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.
5. San Antonio Spurs
For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.
6. Phoenix Suns
I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.
7. Dallas Mavericks
I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.
9. Denver Nuggets
After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.
10. Los Angeles Clippers
After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.
11. Golden State Warriors
I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.
12. Sacramento Kings
The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.
14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces
Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.
1. Boston Celtics
The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....
2. Detroit Pistons
I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.
4. Orlando Magic
They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.
6. Toronto Raptors
From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.
7. Atlanta Hawks
It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.
8. Washington Wizards
Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.
9. Chicago Bulls
Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.
10. Indiana Pacers
This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.
11. Charlotte Bobcats
Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.
12. Miami Heat
I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.
13. Milwaukee Bucks
I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.
14. New York Knicks
The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.
15. New Jersey Nets
They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN
LAL over HOU
NO over UT
LAL over NO
BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL
BOS over ORL
DET over CLE
DET over BOS
FINALS: LAL over DET in 7
Wait, I already said that. Oh well.
Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:
ALL NBA
LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe
SECOND
Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade
THIRD
Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson
ALL ROOKIE
Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden
SECOND
Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts
ALL DEF
Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant
EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton
6th Man: Andre Kirilenko
Most Improved: Ramon Sessions
EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.
As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?
As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.
As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.
2. Utah Jazz
Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.
3. New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.
4. Houston Rockets
Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.
5. San Antonio Spurs
For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.
6. Phoenix Suns
I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.
7. Dallas Mavericks
I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.
9. Denver Nuggets
After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.
10. Los Angeles Clippers
After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.
11. Golden State Warriors
I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.
12. Sacramento Kings
The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.
14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces
Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.
1. Boston Celtics
The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....
2. Detroit Pistons
I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.
4. Orlando Magic
They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.
6. Toronto Raptors
From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.
7. Atlanta Hawks
It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.
8. Washington Wizards
Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.
9. Chicago Bulls
Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.
10. Indiana Pacers
This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.
11. Charlotte Bobcats
Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.
12. Miami Heat
I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.
13. Milwaukee Bucks
I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.
14. New York Knicks
The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.
15. New Jersey Nets
They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN
LAL over HOU
NO over UT
LAL over NO
BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL
BOS over ORL
DET over CLE
DET over BOS
FINALS: LAL over DET in 7
Wait, I already said that. Oh well.
Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:
ALL NBA
LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe
SECOND
Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade
THIRD
Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson
ALL ROOKIE
Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden
SECOND
Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts
ALL DEF
Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant
EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton
6th Man: Andre Kirilenko
Most Improved: Ramon Sessions
EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.
As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?
As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.
Monday, October 27, 2008
NBA Preview 08-09, quick edition
Just a few for the record:
Predicted Wins, Approx.
WEST
1. Lakers 56
2. Jazz 54
3. Hornets 53
4. Rockets 52
5. Spurs 51
6. Suns 50
7. Mavericks 48
8. Blazers 44
9. Nuggets 40
10. Clippers 38
11. Warriors 36
12. Kings 32
13. T Wolves 30
14. Not the Sonics 22
15. Grizzlies 18
EAST
1. Celtics 58
2. Pistons 55
3. Cavs 51
4. Magic 50
5. Sixers 48
6. Raptors 45
7. Wizards 42
8. Hawks 40
9. Bulls 37
10. Pacers 36
11. Bobcats 35
12. Heat 32
13. Bucks 30
14. Knicks 28
15. Nets 20
CONF FINALS: Lakers vs. Hornets, Celtics vs. Pistons
FINALS: Lakers def. Pistons in 7
MVP: LeBron James
DEF: Kevin Garnett
ROOKIE: O. J. Mayo
COACH: Jerry Sloan (Or most likely, someone who surprises people and makes me look stupid)
Predicted Wins, Approx.
WEST
1. Lakers 56
2. Jazz 54
3. Hornets 53
4. Rockets 52
5. Spurs 51
6. Suns 50
7. Mavericks 48
8. Blazers 44
9. Nuggets 40
10. Clippers 38
11. Warriors 36
12. Kings 32
13. T Wolves 30
14. Not the Sonics 22
15. Grizzlies 18
EAST
1. Celtics 58
2. Pistons 55
3. Cavs 51
4. Magic 50
5. Sixers 48
6. Raptors 45
7. Wizards 42
8. Hawks 40
9. Bulls 37
10. Pacers 36
11. Bobcats 35
12. Heat 32
13. Bucks 30
14. Knicks 28
15. Nets 20
CONF FINALS: Lakers vs. Hornets, Celtics vs. Pistons
FINALS: Lakers def. Pistons in 7
MVP: LeBron James
DEF: Kevin Garnett
ROOKIE: O. J. Mayo
COACH: Jerry Sloan (Or most likely, someone who surprises people and makes me look stupid)
Thursday, July 10, 2008
a Brand new day in philly
What is going on?????
This is one of the greatest days in Sixers history, especially recently. And who saw it coming? I asked for it, but never expected it to happen.... and not like this.
I'm shocked and elated. However, I can also feel the pain of a franchise that has had all too much of it.
See, as a Sixers fan living in LA, who also follows the Clippers a little, I'm torn. Since I moved out here, I've grown attached to the Clippers and they're really the only west coast team I can follow... in anything... pro or college. I have rooted for them especially in light of the Lakers, whom I cannot stand. I've been pushing the Sixers to go after Elton Brand for a long time, but now, I'm wondering if it should feel so good. After the Baron Davis news came out, I was sad that the Sixers would probably not get Brand, but it was nice to hear the Clippers finally get some recognition. Now they're stuck halfway, and I hate to see that. I am elated - again, DELIGHTED - to get Brand; he's not perfect but he's just what the Sixers need (as opposed to Josh Smith, who's too much like their other guys).... but I don't like doing it this way. And I do think the Clippers actually have a better supporting cast, at least offensively, but the imbalance of conferences had to factor in heavily in this decision.
As for my hometown team.... what can I say? They actually did the thing I wanted them to for the first time ever. They got the guy who fits them perfectly. They made up for the Iverson trade, because they used that deal to get cap space and they actually used it. And Andre Miller turned out to be still valuable. Two years ago, I was sure this franchise was dead and I was openly rooting for them to tank TWICE so they could get prospects in each of the past two drafts. But here they are, on a major upswing. They made the playoffs, surprisingly, with a feisty young squad, but they needed a real big man force to be taken seriously.... and they just got him. And I don't have to worry about them throwing cash at Smith! Truly, it is a glorious day. This stuff just doesn't happen in Philadelphia that often.
I don't think they will instantly be a favorite. They need some shooting off the bench, and some more experience for the young guys. But after next year, Boston and Detroit will be in a tough spot, LeBron will be making a big decision, and the Sixers could be in a great spot. Toronto, Orlando, Washington, Atlanta, and maybe some others will be better. But I like the future of the Sixers. I love what they're doing now. Just a few months ago, I was still furious with them. Again, I am sorry for how this went down. The Clippers deserve better than this. They've suffered too long. I hope the Clips can get Okafor and they both can make the playoffs. That would be a good way to end this all.
But I'm also happy. Happy for the first time in a while with the ol' team.
[As I hear more on the radio right now, it appears that Brand's agent was hell-bent on making this difficult for the Clips. I hear shades of Drew Rosenhaus and Scott Boras, and I don't like it. We're still hurting from the rug pulled out on TO and Rosenhaus; I do not like having David Falk's ego being the thing that potentially saved the Sixers.]
This is one of the greatest days in Sixers history, especially recently. And who saw it coming? I asked for it, but never expected it to happen.... and not like this.
I'm shocked and elated. However, I can also feel the pain of a franchise that has had all too much of it.
See, as a Sixers fan living in LA, who also follows the Clippers a little, I'm torn. Since I moved out here, I've grown attached to the Clippers and they're really the only west coast team I can follow... in anything... pro or college. I have rooted for them especially in light of the Lakers, whom I cannot stand. I've been pushing the Sixers to go after Elton Brand for a long time, but now, I'm wondering if it should feel so good. After the Baron Davis news came out, I was sad that the Sixers would probably not get Brand, but it was nice to hear the Clippers finally get some recognition. Now they're stuck halfway, and I hate to see that. I am elated - again, DELIGHTED - to get Brand; he's not perfect but he's just what the Sixers need (as opposed to Josh Smith, who's too much like their other guys).... but I don't like doing it this way. And I do think the Clippers actually have a better supporting cast, at least offensively, but the imbalance of conferences had to factor in heavily in this decision.
As for my hometown team.... what can I say? They actually did the thing I wanted them to for the first time ever. They got the guy who fits them perfectly. They made up for the Iverson trade, because they used that deal to get cap space and they actually used it. And Andre Miller turned out to be still valuable. Two years ago, I was sure this franchise was dead and I was openly rooting for them to tank TWICE so they could get prospects in each of the past two drafts. But here they are, on a major upswing. They made the playoffs, surprisingly, with a feisty young squad, but they needed a real big man force to be taken seriously.... and they just got him. And I don't have to worry about them throwing cash at Smith! Truly, it is a glorious day. This stuff just doesn't happen in Philadelphia that often.
I don't think they will instantly be a favorite. They need some shooting off the bench, and some more experience for the young guys. But after next year, Boston and Detroit will be in a tough spot, LeBron will be making a big decision, and the Sixers could be in a great spot. Toronto, Orlando, Washington, Atlanta, and maybe some others will be better. But I like the future of the Sixers. I love what they're doing now. Just a few months ago, I was still furious with them. Again, I am sorry for how this went down. The Clippers deserve better than this. They've suffered too long. I hope the Clips can get Okafor and they both can make the playoffs. That would be a good way to end this all.
But I'm also happy. Happy for the first time in a while with the ol' team.
[As I hear more on the radio right now, it appears that Brand's agent was hell-bent on making this difficult for the Clips. I hear shades of Drew Rosenhaus and Scott Boras, and I don't like it. We're still hurting from the rug pulled out on TO and Rosenhaus; I do not like having David Falk's ego being the thing that potentially saved the Sixers.]
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
draft reactions
I was waiting a few days after the draft to give out my reaction, because I wasn't sure who was going where. Already, though, the free agency period is heating up. Baron Davis opted out of his contract, which surprised everyone, and hinted at the Clippers as a possibility. Now he might even have a deal in place? Argggh. I hate you, Warriors. You're ruining my summer.
See, my hope this summer was that the Clips would go cheap (just like the old days!), try to rebuild around theri young guys, let Magette and Brand go, and then Brand wouldn't have any choice but to look at the Sixers. Brand has been saying that he wants to stay, but he did opt out, so he might have been persuaded if they started dumping people. But now, if Davis comes, he'll almost certainly stay, and the Sixers will have to look elsewhere.
(It should be noted that they are getting together in inspiration of something like the Celtics, but they are doing it in the west. That's going to be tougher. It's also another reason I thought Brand would consider Philly. I mean, the Clippers have been spending more recently, but I didn't think they would try to jump back in the race with such a tough conference. I thought they would say f--- it, let their stars go, and slowly rebuild again. After wishing good vibes for the Clips fo so long, I should be elated that Dunleavy has finally convinced Sterling to spend some cash, but why now?)
This has already created new movement. Sources now report that the Sixers are looking at Josh Smith. Meh.... while I like him, and I think he's going to be a force, he's just way too much like the other guys they have. They can run with him, Thad, and Iggy, but that's about it. They need shooting, preferrably from a big man spot. That's why I was so keen on Brand, and I'm sure that's why they drafted Speights. Smith is a great player, but he's redundant in Philly. He's better off in Atlanta, where fans like him, he has a home base, and he's part of a rising group. Yes, they have a lot of other people to sign eventually, but he should be a priority. They can always let Childress and Marvin Williams go, but they need to keep him.
Now Golden State has a ton of space, though who knows if they'll use it. I don't entirely blame them for taking a conservative approach, when they just spent a lot and still missed the playoffs. Davis has a history of injury problems, and even though he was a catalyst for them, he's aging and they have some young guys coming up. Besides, the west just went from strong to ridiculous. Most importantly, they can say, they never gave up that much in the first place to get him. They had a good run, and while everyone in the bay is prboably very disappointed, at least they ended the playoff drought with a bang. Still.... this is not the way to entice maybe the most passionate fans in the league.
And you still ruined my plans. Damn you, Chris Mullin.
Anyway, onto draft thoughts...
ATLANTA - no picks. Like I said, I would re-sign Smith in a second. He, Horford, and Johnson deserve the big bucks. Everyone else is movable.
BOSTON - feeling great about their chemistry, they took some wild chances at wings J. R. Giddens and Bill Walker. I forgot about Giddens, who once showed much promise at Kansas. He's had problems but the talent is there. Walker had a weird route to college, but health issues are his only concern now. Risky, but maybe a great plan.
CHARLOTTE - while I like Augustin, I thought they could have used their first pick on a big man and their second on a point. Chalmers would still have been available. Instead, they may have to trade Felton, and while Ajinca is interesting, he's not going to help any time soon. For a team close to contending for a playoff spot, they could have done more.
CHICAGO - they bit for Rose. I'm sold if Del Negro is really thinking about going up tempo like his bosses in Pheonix. Now they have to see how to move people. Good luck.
CLEVELAND - for a team that needs help now, J.J. Hickson was a weird pick. He showed promise but will take a few years. I thought they were targeting Koufos, and he was available. This is not the way to make LeBron feel better. They did find a keeper late in Darnell Jackson, who can probably step in earlier.
DALLAS - they need to worry about free agents and trades. A change of philosophy is nice, so they'll start with that.
DENVER - they traded the pick away, thinking no one could have helped them. That's smart. They need a few trades, but probably nothing big.
DETROIT - they didn't like anyone at 29, so they traded for some second round chances. They have a good history with late picks, and I can see one or two of these guys contributing.
GOLDEN STATE - many have questioned taking Anthony Randolph with Brandan Wright there. I'm sure many will be even more angry now that Davis is likely gone. But they have a nice foundation. They seem to have a number of big guys now developing.
HOUSTON - I picked them to pick Greene, and they did, in a roundabout way. Why? Well, they picked up Joey Dorsey in the process. He might be too much like Chuck Hayes, but they can always use more big guys. I really like Greene for them. He can shoot, and they don't have depth on the wings. Great night.
INDIANA - did a lot of dealing, and came out with a completely new team. I guess I liek the direction they have now, although I didn't get the second deal. They gave up the higher pick but got back less, throwing Diogu away when I thought he was going to have more of an impact with JO gone. Also, I like Hibbert, but he has more value on a contending team that needed inside depth. I don't know if he fits in a rebuilding process. They could have gone for more potential there.
Of course, they're going to be in the lottery again next year. So maybe this is just a start.
LA CLIPPERS - had a solid night, picking up Gordon for guard depth and then landing DeAndre Jordan in the second round. He's a nothing-to-lose pick now, so that's big if he actually does something.
LA LAKERS - didn't do much, and don't need to.
MEMPHIS - is still puzzling. I think Love is solid, but they need more than that. Mayo can be their best two guard easily, and is a better pick. So I liked it from that end. They saved themselves by getting Arthur late; that could be a steal. But I chuckled at the fact that while they finally got rid of Brian Cardinal and his horrible contract, they picked up worse ones. At least they can try trading these guys.
They potentially got two starters, so that has to be considered a decent night... but are they going to ever keep any of these guys?
MIAMI - won big, even if Riley doesn't know it. Beasley was the best choice, and they stole Chalmers in the second round. Great picks.
MILWAUKEE - made it appparent that they are trying, and picked up some nice pieces. Jefferson is a good value for Yi, who never fit. I don't like them adding another scorer to a lineup full of them, but he can play some D as well. I don't know why they still drafted Alexander after the trade, but no one else was left. They should look for a defensive, bruising power forward to start and add balance. There may be more deals.
MINNESOTA - on the flip side of Memphis, I like their deals. Love and Miller give them two components, and they won't be hesitant to play there. They may be small, but Love fits with Jefferson and they needed a three who can score. It's a much better step for them.
NEW JERSEY - made it pretty clear that they're going all in for LeBron. There's no question. They added two offensive big guys to mix in with their defensive ones. Ryan Anderson thus makes less sense, but picking up CDR late was a huge steal. I like it, but of course it's all pending on the big prize in two years.
NEW ORLEANS - decided not to take anyone, despite CDR being on the board. Oh well. They'll try the open market.
NEW YORK - is taking it kinda slowly with Gallinari. I pushed for Bayless and Augustin, but I'll trust D'Antoni. He probably didn't want a rookie at the point. Gallinari may actually contribute sooner, and they can use him at several spots.
I have to give them credit. Isiah got hismelf into trouble by always going for the quick fix and the best guy at the moment. He always tried to spend and acquire people as soon as he could, without regards to long term effects. I think Walsh is going to be more patient. He knows he has some huge contracts expiring next year, and he will sit and wait until next year's trading deadline to get the deal he wants. That's a smarter way to work.
ORLANDO - Courtney Lee is solid and will get minutes at the two guard spot for a long time. They'll look at free agents up front.
PHILLY - Dear Mr. Speights,
I know that living in Philly presents a lot of temptations. Trust me, we've all been on board for that late night run to Pat's or Geno's or the Pretzel Factory or the South Street Diner and such. It's tough. But you have to get through it. You have a chance to start and contribute right away on a playoff team. How many middle round picks can say that? Do it for all of us who never could say no to a cheesesteak or a giant slice of pizza. You have a chance to be a big part of the future here.
Please?
PHOENIX - needed a backup point and a wing, and got neither. Robin Lopez is a nice role player, but they need to get more help and I don't know how much cap space they have.... or if they will spend much.
PORTLAND - did a million things and came out on top. I love Bayless next to Roy; he won't have to handle as much and can be a good scorer. They also picked up Diogu, who has some post moves and will add depth. Batum is likely bait for more trades. And they're adding two guys they drafted last year? Yowza.
SACRAMENTO - everyone is ripping them, but I don't think Thompson was a horrible pick. He can score and he doesn't have to be a savior; he just needs to form a decent tandem with Shelden Williams. None of the point guards they wanted were available, so they had to go big. They can probably re-sign Udrih and look at guards next year.
SAN ANTONIO - I have no idea who Geroge Hill is, but I guess they think he's a decent backup. They need wing help, but that may come in free agency.
SEATTLE - refuse to call them Oklahoma City until they're gone. I liked them picking up Westbrook, and they added some future and immediate help in the post. They're a two guard away from making a real turn. Too bad it will come in a weird place.
TORONTO - after the trade, they're looking nice. They need a backup point now, but that's not so hard to get. They did pick up Jawai, who might be a player in a few years.
UTAH - took another big guy. And one who doesn't really have D. I think they could have gone for a point (Chalmers) or someone else.
WASHINGTON - they were disappointed Hibbert was gone, because they could use some immediate help. With him and Lopez off the board, they decided to take another big guy project. It's the best they could do. Signing people is more important, and I'm sure they'll keep it together.
More once more news breaks.
BTW, I feel awful for you, Seattle. What a terrible move. Just an awful debacle, though one we should have seen coming (like Charlotte?)
See, my hope this summer was that the Clips would go cheap (just like the old days!), try to rebuild around theri young guys, let Magette and Brand go, and then Brand wouldn't have any choice but to look at the Sixers. Brand has been saying that he wants to stay, but he did opt out, so he might have been persuaded if they started dumping people. But now, if Davis comes, he'll almost certainly stay, and the Sixers will have to look elsewhere.
(It should be noted that they are getting together in inspiration of something like the Celtics, but they are doing it in the west. That's going to be tougher. It's also another reason I thought Brand would consider Philly. I mean, the Clippers have been spending more recently, but I didn't think they would try to jump back in the race with such a tough conference. I thought they would say f--- it, let their stars go, and slowly rebuild again. After wishing good vibes for the Clips fo so long, I should be elated that Dunleavy has finally convinced Sterling to spend some cash, but why now?)
This has already created new movement. Sources now report that the Sixers are looking at Josh Smith. Meh.... while I like him, and I think he's going to be a force, he's just way too much like the other guys they have. They can run with him, Thad, and Iggy, but that's about it. They need shooting, preferrably from a big man spot. That's why I was so keen on Brand, and I'm sure that's why they drafted Speights. Smith is a great player, but he's redundant in Philly. He's better off in Atlanta, where fans like him, he has a home base, and he's part of a rising group. Yes, they have a lot of other people to sign eventually, but he should be a priority. They can always let Childress and Marvin Williams go, but they need to keep him.
Now Golden State has a ton of space, though who knows if they'll use it. I don't entirely blame them for taking a conservative approach, when they just spent a lot and still missed the playoffs. Davis has a history of injury problems, and even though he was a catalyst for them, he's aging and they have some young guys coming up. Besides, the west just went from strong to ridiculous. Most importantly, they can say, they never gave up that much in the first place to get him. They had a good run, and while everyone in the bay is prboably very disappointed, at least they ended the playoff drought with a bang. Still.... this is not the way to entice maybe the most passionate fans in the league.
And you still ruined my plans. Damn you, Chris Mullin.
Anyway, onto draft thoughts...
ATLANTA - no picks. Like I said, I would re-sign Smith in a second. He, Horford, and Johnson deserve the big bucks. Everyone else is movable.
BOSTON - feeling great about their chemistry, they took some wild chances at wings J. R. Giddens and Bill Walker. I forgot about Giddens, who once showed much promise at Kansas. He's had problems but the talent is there. Walker had a weird route to college, but health issues are his only concern now. Risky, but maybe a great plan.
CHARLOTTE - while I like Augustin, I thought they could have used their first pick on a big man and their second on a point. Chalmers would still have been available. Instead, they may have to trade Felton, and while Ajinca is interesting, he's not going to help any time soon. For a team close to contending for a playoff spot, they could have done more.
CHICAGO - they bit for Rose. I'm sold if Del Negro is really thinking about going up tempo like his bosses in Pheonix. Now they have to see how to move people. Good luck.
CLEVELAND - for a team that needs help now, J.J. Hickson was a weird pick. He showed promise but will take a few years. I thought they were targeting Koufos, and he was available. This is not the way to make LeBron feel better. They did find a keeper late in Darnell Jackson, who can probably step in earlier.
DALLAS - they need to worry about free agents and trades. A change of philosophy is nice, so they'll start with that.
DENVER - they traded the pick away, thinking no one could have helped them. That's smart. They need a few trades, but probably nothing big.
DETROIT - they didn't like anyone at 29, so they traded for some second round chances. They have a good history with late picks, and I can see one or two of these guys contributing.
GOLDEN STATE - many have questioned taking Anthony Randolph with Brandan Wright there. I'm sure many will be even more angry now that Davis is likely gone. But they have a nice foundation. They seem to have a number of big guys now developing.
HOUSTON - I picked them to pick Greene, and they did, in a roundabout way. Why? Well, they picked up Joey Dorsey in the process. He might be too much like Chuck Hayes, but they can always use more big guys. I really like Greene for them. He can shoot, and they don't have depth on the wings. Great night.
INDIANA - did a lot of dealing, and came out with a completely new team. I guess I liek the direction they have now, although I didn't get the second deal. They gave up the higher pick but got back less, throwing Diogu away when I thought he was going to have more of an impact with JO gone. Also, I like Hibbert, but he has more value on a contending team that needed inside depth. I don't know if he fits in a rebuilding process. They could have gone for more potential there.
Of course, they're going to be in the lottery again next year. So maybe this is just a start.
LA CLIPPERS - had a solid night, picking up Gordon for guard depth and then landing DeAndre Jordan in the second round. He's a nothing-to-lose pick now, so that's big if he actually does something.
LA LAKERS - didn't do much, and don't need to.
MEMPHIS - is still puzzling. I think Love is solid, but they need more than that. Mayo can be their best two guard easily, and is a better pick. So I liked it from that end. They saved themselves by getting Arthur late; that could be a steal. But I chuckled at the fact that while they finally got rid of Brian Cardinal and his horrible contract, they picked up worse ones. At least they can try trading these guys.
They potentially got two starters, so that has to be considered a decent night... but are they going to ever keep any of these guys?
MIAMI - won big, even if Riley doesn't know it. Beasley was the best choice, and they stole Chalmers in the second round. Great picks.
MILWAUKEE - made it appparent that they are trying, and picked up some nice pieces. Jefferson is a good value for Yi, who never fit. I don't like them adding another scorer to a lineup full of them, but he can play some D as well. I don't know why they still drafted Alexander after the trade, but no one else was left. They should look for a defensive, bruising power forward to start and add balance. There may be more deals.
MINNESOTA - on the flip side of Memphis, I like their deals. Love and Miller give them two components, and they won't be hesitant to play there. They may be small, but Love fits with Jefferson and they needed a three who can score. It's a much better step for them.
NEW JERSEY - made it pretty clear that they're going all in for LeBron. There's no question. They added two offensive big guys to mix in with their defensive ones. Ryan Anderson thus makes less sense, but picking up CDR late was a huge steal. I like it, but of course it's all pending on the big prize in two years.
NEW ORLEANS - decided not to take anyone, despite CDR being on the board. Oh well. They'll try the open market.
NEW YORK - is taking it kinda slowly with Gallinari. I pushed for Bayless and Augustin, but I'll trust D'Antoni. He probably didn't want a rookie at the point. Gallinari may actually contribute sooner, and they can use him at several spots.
I have to give them credit. Isiah got hismelf into trouble by always going for the quick fix and the best guy at the moment. He always tried to spend and acquire people as soon as he could, without regards to long term effects. I think Walsh is going to be more patient. He knows he has some huge contracts expiring next year, and he will sit and wait until next year's trading deadline to get the deal he wants. That's a smarter way to work.
ORLANDO - Courtney Lee is solid and will get minutes at the two guard spot for a long time. They'll look at free agents up front.
PHILLY - Dear Mr. Speights,
I know that living in Philly presents a lot of temptations. Trust me, we've all been on board for that late night run to Pat's or Geno's or the Pretzel Factory or the South Street Diner and such. It's tough. But you have to get through it. You have a chance to start and contribute right away on a playoff team. How many middle round picks can say that? Do it for all of us who never could say no to a cheesesteak or a giant slice of pizza. You have a chance to be a big part of the future here.
Please?
PHOENIX - needed a backup point and a wing, and got neither. Robin Lopez is a nice role player, but they need to get more help and I don't know how much cap space they have.... or if they will spend much.
PORTLAND - did a million things and came out on top. I love Bayless next to Roy; he won't have to handle as much and can be a good scorer. They also picked up Diogu, who has some post moves and will add depth. Batum is likely bait for more trades. And they're adding two guys they drafted last year? Yowza.
SACRAMENTO - everyone is ripping them, but I don't think Thompson was a horrible pick. He can score and he doesn't have to be a savior; he just needs to form a decent tandem with Shelden Williams. None of the point guards they wanted were available, so they had to go big. They can probably re-sign Udrih and look at guards next year.
SAN ANTONIO - I have no idea who Geroge Hill is, but I guess they think he's a decent backup. They need wing help, but that may come in free agency.
SEATTLE - refuse to call them Oklahoma City until they're gone. I liked them picking up Westbrook, and they added some future and immediate help in the post. They're a two guard away from making a real turn. Too bad it will come in a weird place.
TORONTO - after the trade, they're looking nice. They need a backup point now, but that's not so hard to get. They did pick up Jawai, who might be a player in a few years.
UTAH - took another big guy. And one who doesn't really have D. I think they could have gone for a point (Chalmers) or someone else.
WASHINGTON - they were disappointed Hibbert was gone, because they could use some immediate help. With him and Lopez off the board, they decided to take another big guy project. It's the best they could do. Signing people is more important, and I'm sure they'll keep it together.
More once more news breaks.
BTW, I feel awful for you, Seattle. What a terrible move. Just an awful debacle, though one we should have seen coming (like Charlotte?)
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
mock draft 2008
With just one day left, I present my mock draft. The NBA draft is always intriguing because one guy can make a huge difference. Franchises can change their direction in one night. Execs can look like geniuses and prolong their careers with one really smart pick. It doesn't get as much attention as the NFL draft, which is longer, but it has more impact. One guy cannot save or doom a football team (unless maybe he's a quarterback). Yet we forget that.....
I always do many mocks, but here I will post it and give thoughts on what I would do. I will give what teams should do (S) along with what I predict they will actually do (P). Let's roll.
# 1 CHICAGO
S: Well, I initially said that's it easy to just go Beas-y. But I'm not so sure now. I like that deal with Miami I drew up, where Wade and Beasley end up in Chicago, while Ty Thomas and Ben Gordon join Rose in south beach. But that's a lot to work out.
I think Rose is the safe pick, and there's no doubt he will sell tickets and get excitement going. For a guy on the hot seat like Paxson, that looks awfully good. I just hate to wrap my mind around the other moves they'd have to make with Rose. If they really could deal Hinrich for another big man, I wouldn't fault them. I still think the best thing to do is take Beasley, but I can see why they're scared.
As I've just learned, though, they can't get in on Jermaine O'Neal. That was one of the very few ways they could have dumped guards and got big men. That's not helping. If it was any other team with the same players, I'd say Beasley. Maybe.
P: They'll take Rose. They need a positive story.
# 2 MIAMI
S: That trade with Chicago is good, but maybe not as much for them, and I wouldn't want to give up on Wade yet. So I might not be that crazy. I do like the idea of joining Wade and Mayo, which seems like the real possibility here.
But I've been thinking recently.... doesn't it make more sense to just take Beasley and then trade/let go Marion? Marion needs a true point and a running team to succeed; Wade doesn't play that way. Beasley could play the three along Wade and Haslem in a half court offense; he could post up wings and then they wouldn't have to worry about his size or finding a real big man. And while Mayo would be a perfect compliment to Wade, it shouldn't be hard for them to find another combo guard who can shoot. They almost did last summer. So if Chicago does take Rose, I might just like Beasley, unless someone offers something really good for him.... but that would have to be Minnesota, because he won't slip past 3.
And if Rose is there, I'd trade down for Mayo. Other teams would offer a lot for Rose, so they can get more if he drops. I just don't like him and Wade together.
P: They take Beasley, then trade down. They'll see what they can get from Minnesota to get Mayo. Unless Riley really is working the most complex misdirection ever.
# 3 MINNESOTA
S: I'd do anything to get Beasley.They can play him at either forward, and let him find his way. He's better than anyone they can get at 3, and he's worth giving up things. They have two early second round picks and Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man for Miami. If that's not enough, they have Miami's first round pick next year. I don't think they can re-acquire Mark Blount, but maybe they can try or make a promise to later. Or McHale can tell Riley, "Riles... come on.... I took Antoine Walker off your hands, and gave you the expiring contract from Ricky Davis. I believe you owe me." If Miami wants to move down, they need to make this happen.
If Beasley is unavailable, I'd trade down. I like Mayo, and much more than any of their guards, but they need a forward or center. In that case, see what the Knicks or Clippers will offer and then take Gallinari or Love.
If Miami has Rose and wants to trade down, they can take Mayo and then make the Heat include them in a deal.
P: Mayo to trade up. They find a way to get Beasley if Miami doesn't want him. McHale needs some positive news as much as anyone else.
# 4 SEATTLE
S: They like Bayless and Westbrook, and I do too. Of course, I'd trade anyone not named Durant to get Rose if he becomes available, but that doesn't leave a lot. Most likely, it comes down to the combo guards. I might actually like Eric Gordon the best out of them because I know he can play the two if he doesn't work as a point; the others are going to struggle if they can't adjust. Bayless looks good, but he doesn't have much room for failure. Westbrook would at least bring defensive guarantees. It's tough. I'd consider swapping with the Knicks to get Westbrook and see what they can add in.
Late news is them leaning towards Brook Lopez. Not a terrible idea, because their last few centers haven't worked out. But then, what if he does too? That's a lot of wasted projects when there are still good guards available. I don't know if they take that risk at number 4.
P: I thought they might swap with the Knicks, but it appears that Westbrook is high on a lot of lists. So I think they just stay here and take him.
# 5 MEMPHIS
S: Good Lord, where to start? They seem to be high on Kevin Love, who is not a franchise guy. They need a star big man, not a complimentary pick. Also, since Juan Carlos Navarro left, and they might deal Mike Miller, they could use a wing. This team is in such disarray, who knows anymore. I would roll the dice with Anthony Randolph, or even take Brook Lopez, who is slow...but so is Love.... and Lopez has a real post game and a few inches on him. Randolph would at least have the potential to be an athletic four, with younger Gasol and Darko slumming around.
P: They apparently love Love. But who knows. They might trade this pick and Brian Cardinal for a used Ford Tempo the way things are going.
# 6 NEW YORK
S: If there's any way they can get Derrick Rose, do that. No matter what. Same with Mayo. I like all those guys for D'Antoni.
However, I expect all of them to be gone by now, with the Knicks picking between either Bayless or Westbrook, and also D.J. Augustin, or maybe addressing forward with Randolph, Gallinari, or Joe Alexander. They need a point guard, and I like Augustin the best. Westbrook will be much better defensively, but I don't think D'Antoni is even going to try playing any D with this team, and Westbrook doesn't fit the offense. Augustin has been compared to Steve Nash and I'd even say that he has the best point guard skills of anyone offensively in this draft besides Rose (and he's a better shooter). His only problem is his size, but I really think that will only hurt him defensively. Chris Paul is an inspiration.
I know Augustin isn't rated this high, so maybe they look at trading down, but I would go with him.
P: Tough call. They've been rumored with a number of people. Bayless is slipping, but I can't imagine D'Antoni passing up on a quick guard who can score. Even if he's not a real point, he brings size and offense.
# 7 LA CLIPPERS
S: If they can't move up to get Bayless or Mayo, they will look between Gordon and Westbrook, if available. Westbrook brings a local audience and great D, but Gordon would be fine. As long as they have guard depth, they're heading the right way. The bigger concern is signing Elton Brand (or not) and getting Shaun Livingston healthy.
P: Eric Gordon. No one else is left here.
# 8 MILWAUKEE
S: If Golden State offers Brandan Wright and the 14th pick for Yi, I do that in a second. Then I take Gallinari. If they want to just add one guy, it's a tough call. They might look at Westbrook if they are going to trade Redd or Mo Williams. They should go with Joe Alexander. Originally, his only problem was that no one knew much about him and this seemed too high to take him. But now he's moving up fast, so they won't feel as bad. He gives them a nice mix of shooting and athleticism at the three.
P: Alexander, unless they've got some major trades in mind.
# 9 CHARLOTTE
S: They need a center, but that center should have some shooting ability. Love, if he drops, is a nice fit. Brook Lopez has been getting dissed, but at this pick, he's a steal. They've been heard to like Westbrook, but even though they need a backup point, they need another big guy much more. Also, they will apparently have the # 20 pick now. That ought to find them guard help.
P: Brook Lopez.
# 10 NEW JERSEY
S: They have a plan in place. First off, I'd try anything to make that deal with Denver to get Carmelo. If they have him and no one else in three years, they'll be in good shape to entice LeBron. I'd give Denver everything, even Devin Harris.
As the roster looks now, I would go for Randolph if he drops. Same with Love. Without those two, I would probably move onto DeAndre Jordan, Darell Arthur, and Marreese Speights. I like Speights the most there, although Arthur would fit in with the current team.
But it seems now like they're very intent on trading Richard Jefferson, since I hear his names in about 5 different trade rumors a day. So maybe they can fit Gallinari, as widely speculated.
P: Everyone seems to think this is where Gallinari goes, so I'll bite.
# 11 INDIANA
S: Everything I had ready went down the drain when the big trade was announced. Personally, I think they can do better. I'd rather have Ty Thomas and Kirk Hinrich. They were tired of JO being injured all the time, but Ford has had several big injury scares as well. He's a real point, but he can't shoot it that well.
So now, instead of targeting a point, they may want to gamble on another big man. Ike Digou showed some promise when they first got him, but he didn't do much last year. This is a nice time to take a swing on a project. If Randolph slips, they might have a steal in a few years.
P: Anthony Randolph is still there, and I think they gladly take the chance.
# 12 SACRAMENTO
S: They need a point or a four. Again, they'll be happy if Westbrook or Augustin is available. I doubt both slip.
If both are gone, they may look at Arthur, Jordan, or Speights. They've been rumored to like Roy Hibbert, and I think he'll actually have some value, but this seems too high. I'd go with Arthur then, unless Randolph is still around.
P: Augustin is here in my prediction. They'll be stoked. They may want to send a thank you note to Toronto for solving Indiana's point problem.
# 13 PORTLAND
S: They'll probably trade this pick, and that's smart. The only guy I could kinda like for them here is Alexander, but I doubt he'll be available. They have two early second rounders, a late first, and a big expiring contract in Raef LaFrentz. That should get something, with this.
I'd offer Memphis both first round picks, LaFrentz, Channing Frye, and Martell Webster in exchange for Mike Miller and Cardinal's death trap. That would make this team scary.
P: I had a strong feeling this is where DeAndre Jordan would go, but it wouldn't be Portland who did it. But he's been dropping hard. Maybe Phoenix trades up to make sure they get Rush.
In any case, this pick will be moved, so it's tough to tell. I can't know who will go here until the trade happens. But I think the pick with the most value here is Brandon Rush. Someone will grab him here.
# 14 GOLDEN STATE
S: I wouldn't make the Yi deal I said earlier because I like Wright as a real inside presence in their offense. I do think they can target Yi, though. If they can give up this pick, a future one, and agree to take on Gadzuric, then I would try that. If they can give up Wright and other people, but keep this pick, I would also do that and take Arthur or JaVale McGee.
If they keep the pick, they have interesting choices. Speights is a good scorer down low, but he might not have the conditioning they like. Jordan is another risky prospect, which hasn't worked out. Arthur is too much like Wright; they shouldn't have both. Kostas Koufos might be a good fit because he's a big who can run and shoot it fairly well. If they don't make any deals, I think he's the guy.
P: I think they will try to get Yi again, but as my predictions are going, I will pencil in Koufos here.
# 15 PHOENIX
S: I'd hope that Brandon Rush drops. In this case, he doesn't. If he's gone, I might trade this pick and Barbosa for a better wing.
If Augustin somehow slipped this far, and Rush was gone, however much I doubt it, I'd take him to ease Nash. He could even replace him in a few years. The problem here is that Rush might go at spot 13, depending who picks there.
I'd make this offer to Portland if they do pick Rush or someone else wants him at 13: Barbosa and # 15 for # 13 and Jarret Jack. That way, they could get Rush and also bring in a backup point whom the Blazers are iffy on. The Blazers would then have a quick guard to pair with Roy.
P: They trade up to get Rush. He just makes too much sense for them not to get him. I don't know who ends up with this pick in the long run, but I do think this is where people start taking gambles... so let's say DeAndre Jordan.
# 16 PHILLY
S: First off, I'd make a big offer to Elton Brand and hope the Clips give up. I hate to work this way, but they have a history of cheapness. As for this pick, they will likely look at Jordan, Arthur and Speights. If all are there, I like Speights. Arthur is more athletic and that would seem to fit them, but I think they want to find a big guy with some actual offense. Jordan just looks lost.
I wondered during the season if maybe they would think about taking Hibbert and pairing him up with Dalembert to give them tons of size. Hibbert is slow, but maybe that helps him if he's not the only big guy. Or maybe this would be terrible. I'm not sure. I've been reading a lot about Speights since most experts have targeted him for the Sixers, and I'm getting worried. David Thorpe has seen a lot of him and thinks he's a bust.
Of course, if he's the sorry note they use to take Brand, I feel much better.
P: Speights. I will cross my fingers that he's trying.
# 17 TORONTO *****
S: This pick is now supposedly going to Indiana as part of the big deal. I thought Toronto would be content to take Robin Lopez for depth here, but I give them credit. They traded an expensive backup they weren't going to use that much for a former all-star. Even if JO is washed up, they didn't really lose much, and he'll be a free agent again soon.
So for the Pacers, if they took a big man last time, they will go for a guard here. They seemed to have solved their point guard spot, but they need depth. Tinsley and Ford have injury history, and neither is a great shooter. Chalmers can shoot and play both guard spots. It's something.
P: Mario Chalmers.
# 18 WASHINGTON
S: They always seem to need big guys. Andray Blatche and Oleksiy Perechov are still up in the air. They will likely have a chance with McGee and Hibbert, maybe even Jordan and Speights. Hibbert is a hometown guy, which may help or hurt. They've certainly seen a lot of him. I like McGee because he has more upside, but Hibbert would be able to come off the bench and score down low.
P: Hibbert has been looking better lately, and he'd generate more fan interest than anyone you can get at this point. He can score down low, and they don't have that.
# 19 CLEVELAND
S: They should get a big guy who can score, because Varejao and Big Ben can't. Koufos is local and knows LeBron, but he may be gone. They'll likely pick from the same guys Washington did. I like Hibbert if he's here. He can play the half court. Arthur is more athletic but less refined. McGee might be too much of a question mark. Speights would be terrific but I think he won't be there.
One guy who I first thought might be too much of a reach but now isn't? Jason Thompson. He's big and can score. He played at a small school, but you can't overlook a 6-10 guy with skills. Plus, he's ready to play. They can't wait for prospects. Pending on who is available, I go Koufos, Speights, Hibbert, Thompson, Arthur, McGee.
P: In this case, it's Thompson.
# 20 DENVER ***** CHAR
S: To counteract New Jersey, I would certainly NOT trade Melo. He's worth too much. They have a good team; I see a few tweaks rather than a complete overhaul. They might want a tall point to play next to Iverson, and a big who can shoot.
Well, it looks now like they will not even try to grab anyone here. That's okay, no one stood out as a definite answer to them. This pick is heading to Charlotte, and they want a point guard bad. If Chalmers is still on the board, they made a good pick. If not.... I'm not sure where they head. They'll probably grab another big guy and hope free agency nets them something.
P: Without Chalmers, they take a crack at French big man Alexis Ajinca. He's the anti-Lopez, unproven but athletic. Maybe it will all even out for them.
# 21 NEW JERSEY
S: Again, who knows if they pick here. This could easily be traded. If they stay, it depends on what they did with the tenth pick. If they didn't get a big there, they will now. If they did, they will go for depth on the perimeter. Most likely, they will choose amongst the big guys I've been talking about for the last few picks.
P: Well, I had them taking Gallinari earlier, so I guess they will go for Arthur here. They'd actually be really excited to get both. They'd even consider Arthur at 10.
# 22 ORLANDO
S: Depends on if they want to keep the small lineup or go big again. I think Van Gundy likes small ball if he can get better guards. They will look at Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas Roberts. They supposedly like Lee the best, and I have to agree. He's solid.
P: Courtney Lee
# 23 UTAH
S: Everyone says they need another big guy. Don't they already have Millsap off the bench, plus Jarron Collins, plus Fesenko - another huge prospect? But I guess they can't get any more wings after they did the last few years. I'd go with Chalmers if he's available. They don't have a true backup to Williams.
If he's gone, I suppose I take a look at big men. I guess it wouldn't hurt to add a defender. Now that Toronto's out, they could grab the other Lopez. He can come in and hurt people in the way Boozer and Okur won't.
P: Robin Lopez.
# 24 SEATTLE
S: If they keep this, they will probably go for an international post prospect, or a local project. I'd do the same.
If McGee or Jordan are available, it wouldn't hurt to take a look. They've already tried 4 big man projects in the past few years... fifth time's the charm? I think they need a true off guard who can shoot, not just throwing Durant there, but they have time for that later.
P: JaVale McGee
# 25 HOUSTON
S: They always seem to need power forwards, but that might be a reach here. Besides, they finally have some in Scola and Landry, while Steve Novak and Chuck Hayes are nice specialists. I hear they like Thompson or Ryan Anderson, but are they any better than those guys?
I think they should go for a wing, because there are none after McGrady and Battier. Donte Greene has slipped this far in my predictions because no one needed him before. They'd be delighted to get him.
P: Greene, which could be a steal.
# 26 SAN ANTONIO
S: They need to get younger on the wings. Usually, they'd go for an international big, but they have enough of those. They will look at who is available amongst Lee, Douglas-Roberts, Greene, Chalmers, and Nicolas Batum. If Batum is still there, he would fit in perfectly with what they do. He was talked about as a lottery pick in the past few years, so he might be a steal.
I hear they want Ryan Anderson, but is he any better than Matt Bonner? Or someone they could find for cheap in free agency?
P: Batum. Doesn't this sound exactly like the kind of thing that always happens to them?
# 27 PORTLAND
S: The Hornets gave up because they didn't think they could get a good player here. I thought they could probably land Douglas-Roberts or Lee, but they might not. I did say that if both of those guys were gone, I would trade out of the first round.
Portland is up to something. I don't know what, but they are. They can always go international.
P: Ante Tomic, another project they can stash or trade.
# 28 MEMPHIS
S: If they still have this pick, they should add some depth on the wing, if they took a big guy earlier. Any wing left would help, especially a two guard. Most mocks have them looking at J. J. Hickson, a raw four. Well, it can't hurt to stockpile big prospects.
It's hard to make a prediction without knowing if they will trade Miller. Why not look at college star CDR? He's not Derrick Rose, but he's familiar with fans.
P: Hickson. Everyone likes him here.
# 29 DETROIT
S: I'd look at the trade offers. I would probably do the Billups/Prince for Melo deal. I might trade 'Sheed if I had to.
What do they actually need in the draft? A true center who can score down low, but that's hard to find here. They were probably hoping earlier that people would sour on Hibbert, but that may not happen anymore. McGee, if he drops, is a Detroit native and a risky pick, but not so much at this stage.
If CDR slips this far, he's also a Detroit native who can play right away. As much as they need a big guy, he's local and the best guy on the board by far. He'd give them depth and might ease the burden of any trade.
P: Chris Douglas Roberts
# 30 BOSTON
S: They can always use another big guy, since P.J. will probably hang it up. Not right now, but eventually. That means international. They will likely take the best big guy left, which I think means whomever the other teams in the 20's don't take.
If Lee or Douglas-Roberts fell to them, they might sweep them up. They were scared about Tony Allen because of his poor shooting and handling. If any spot is a concern, it might be two guard.
Also, they could look at Ryan Anderson, who seems projected to go around here. He's a big man shooter in the vein of Steve Novak or Matt Bonner. He could fit.
P: Anderson. He's supposedly guaranteed to go in the first round, so he can't be any lower on the list. Let's hope he's worth more than Scalabrine.
...
...
And that does it for the first round. In the second round, I look for some sleepers who can do different things, like specialists. Anderson will be a target if he doesn't go in the first. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can D it up, even if he can't score. Kyle Weaver can shoot and play both guard spots. Bill Walker was once a top prospect, but got hurt. He could slip into the first if he looks better. Davon Jefferson came out too early, but he was rated high once. Joey Dorsey brings rebounding and energy, if nothing else. Trent Plaisted has decent offense for a big guy. All of these guys could be bench players if they work. I also look at internationals who will take a few years to develop.
The first five picks in the second round are: Minnesota, Seattle, Portland, Minnesota, LA Clippers, and Portland. This leads me to believe that Minnesota and Portland will be busy trading up. Or out.
But I guess we'll really find out tomorrow night.
I always do many mocks, but here I will post it and give thoughts on what I would do. I will give what teams should do (S) along with what I predict they will actually do (P). Let's roll.
# 1 CHICAGO
S: Well, I initially said that's it easy to just go Beas-y. But I'm not so sure now. I like that deal with Miami I drew up, where Wade and Beasley end up in Chicago, while Ty Thomas and Ben Gordon join Rose in south beach. But that's a lot to work out.
I think Rose is the safe pick, and there's no doubt he will sell tickets and get excitement going. For a guy on the hot seat like Paxson, that looks awfully good. I just hate to wrap my mind around the other moves they'd have to make with Rose. If they really could deal Hinrich for another big man, I wouldn't fault them. I still think the best thing to do is take Beasley, but I can see why they're scared.
As I've just learned, though, they can't get in on Jermaine O'Neal. That was one of the very few ways they could have dumped guards and got big men. That's not helping. If it was any other team with the same players, I'd say Beasley. Maybe.
P: They'll take Rose. They need a positive story.
# 2 MIAMI
S: That trade with Chicago is good, but maybe not as much for them, and I wouldn't want to give up on Wade yet. So I might not be that crazy. I do like the idea of joining Wade and Mayo, which seems like the real possibility here.
But I've been thinking recently.... doesn't it make more sense to just take Beasley and then trade/let go Marion? Marion needs a true point and a running team to succeed; Wade doesn't play that way. Beasley could play the three along Wade and Haslem in a half court offense; he could post up wings and then they wouldn't have to worry about his size or finding a real big man. And while Mayo would be a perfect compliment to Wade, it shouldn't be hard for them to find another combo guard who can shoot. They almost did last summer. So if Chicago does take Rose, I might just like Beasley, unless someone offers something really good for him.... but that would have to be Minnesota, because he won't slip past 3.
And if Rose is there, I'd trade down for Mayo. Other teams would offer a lot for Rose, so they can get more if he drops. I just don't like him and Wade together.
P: They take Beasley, then trade down. They'll see what they can get from Minnesota to get Mayo. Unless Riley really is working the most complex misdirection ever.
# 3 MINNESOTA
S: I'd do anything to get Beasley.They can play him at either forward, and let him find his way. He's better than anyone they can get at 3, and he's worth giving up things. They have two early second round picks and Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man for Miami. If that's not enough, they have Miami's first round pick next year. I don't think they can re-acquire Mark Blount, but maybe they can try or make a promise to later. Or McHale can tell Riley, "Riles... come on.... I took Antoine Walker off your hands, and gave you the expiring contract from Ricky Davis. I believe you owe me." If Miami wants to move down, they need to make this happen.
If Beasley is unavailable, I'd trade down. I like Mayo, and much more than any of their guards, but they need a forward or center. In that case, see what the Knicks or Clippers will offer and then take Gallinari or Love.
If Miami has Rose and wants to trade down, they can take Mayo and then make the Heat include them in a deal.
P: Mayo to trade up. They find a way to get Beasley if Miami doesn't want him. McHale needs some positive news as much as anyone else.
# 4 SEATTLE
S: They like Bayless and Westbrook, and I do too. Of course, I'd trade anyone not named Durant to get Rose if he becomes available, but that doesn't leave a lot. Most likely, it comes down to the combo guards. I might actually like Eric Gordon the best out of them because I know he can play the two if he doesn't work as a point; the others are going to struggle if they can't adjust. Bayless looks good, but he doesn't have much room for failure. Westbrook would at least bring defensive guarantees. It's tough. I'd consider swapping with the Knicks to get Westbrook and see what they can add in.
Late news is them leaning towards Brook Lopez. Not a terrible idea, because their last few centers haven't worked out. But then, what if he does too? That's a lot of wasted projects when there are still good guards available. I don't know if they take that risk at number 4.
P: I thought they might swap with the Knicks, but it appears that Westbrook is high on a lot of lists. So I think they just stay here and take him.
# 5 MEMPHIS
S: Good Lord, where to start? They seem to be high on Kevin Love, who is not a franchise guy. They need a star big man, not a complimentary pick. Also, since Juan Carlos Navarro left, and they might deal Mike Miller, they could use a wing. This team is in such disarray, who knows anymore. I would roll the dice with Anthony Randolph, or even take Brook Lopez, who is slow...but so is Love.... and Lopez has a real post game and a few inches on him. Randolph would at least have the potential to be an athletic four, with younger Gasol and Darko slumming around.
P: They apparently love Love. But who knows. They might trade this pick and Brian Cardinal for a used Ford Tempo the way things are going.
# 6 NEW YORK
S: If there's any way they can get Derrick Rose, do that. No matter what. Same with Mayo. I like all those guys for D'Antoni.
However, I expect all of them to be gone by now, with the Knicks picking between either Bayless or Westbrook, and also D.J. Augustin, or maybe addressing forward with Randolph, Gallinari, or Joe Alexander. They need a point guard, and I like Augustin the best. Westbrook will be much better defensively, but I don't think D'Antoni is even going to try playing any D with this team, and Westbrook doesn't fit the offense. Augustin has been compared to Steve Nash and I'd even say that he has the best point guard skills of anyone offensively in this draft besides Rose (and he's a better shooter). His only problem is his size, but I really think that will only hurt him defensively. Chris Paul is an inspiration.
I know Augustin isn't rated this high, so maybe they look at trading down, but I would go with him.
P: Tough call. They've been rumored with a number of people. Bayless is slipping, but I can't imagine D'Antoni passing up on a quick guard who can score. Even if he's not a real point, he brings size and offense.
# 7 LA CLIPPERS
S: If they can't move up to get Bayless or Mayo, they will look between Gordon and Westbrook, if available. Westbrook brings a local audience and great D, but Gordon would be fine. As long as they have guard depth, they're heading the right way. The bigger concern is signing Elton Brand (or not) and getting Shaun Livingston healthy.
P: Eric Gordon. No one else is left here.
# 8 MILWAUKEE
S: If Golden State offers Brandan Wright and the 14th pick for Yi, I do that in a second. Then I take Gallinari. If they want to just add one guy, it's a tough call. They might look at Westbrook if they are going to trade Redd or Mo Williams. They should go with Joe Alexander. Originally, his only problem was that no one knew much about him and this seemed too high to take him. But now he's moving up fast, so they won't feel as bad. He gives them a nice mix of shooting and athleticism at the three.
P: Alexander, unless they've got some major trades in mind.
# 9 CHARLOTTE
S: They need a center, but that center should have some shooting ability. Love, if he drops, is a nice fit. Brook Lopez has been getting dissed, but at this pick, he's a steal. They've been heard to like Westbrook, but even though they need a backup point, they need another big guy much more. Also, they will apparently have the # 20 pick now. That ought to find them guard help.
P: Brook Lopez.
# 10 NEW JERSEY
S: They have a plan in place. First off, I'd try anything to make that deal with Denver to get Carmelo. If they have him and no one else in three years, they'll be in good shape to entice LeBron. I'd give Denver everything, even Devin Harris.
As the roster looks now, I would go for Randolph if he drops. Same with Love. Without those two, I would probably move onto DeAndre Jordan, Darell Arthur, and Marreese Speights. I like Speights the most there, although Arthur would fit in with the current team.
But it seems now like they're very intent on trading Richard Jefferson, since I hear his names in about 5 different trade rumors a day. So maybe they can fit Gallinari, as widely speculated.
P: Everyone seems to think this is where Gallinari goes, so I'll bite.
# 11 INDIANA
S: Everything I had ready went down the drain when the big trade was announced. Personally, I think they can do better. I'd rather have Ty Thomas and Kirk Hinrich. They were tired of JO being injured all the time, but Ford has had several big injury scares as well. He's a real point, but he can't shoot it that well.
So now, instead of targeting a point, they may want to gamble on another big man. Ike Digou showed some promise when they first got him, but he didn't do much last year. This is a nice time to take a swing on a project. If Randolph slips, they might have a steal in a few years.
P: Anthony Randolph is still there, and I think they gladly take the chance.
# 12 SACRAMENTO
S: They need a point or a four. Again, they'll be happy if Westbrook or Augustin is available. I doubt both slip.
If both are gone, they may look at Arthur, Jordan, or Speights. They've been rumored to like Roy Hibbert, and I think he'll actually have some value, but this seems too high. I'd go with Arthur then, unless Randolph is still around.
P: Augustin is here in my prediction. They'll be stoked. They may want to send a thank you note to Toronto for solving Indiana's point problem.
# 13 PORTLAND
S: They'll probably trade this pick, and that's smart. The only guy I could kinda like for them here is Alexander, but I doubt he'll be available. They have two early second rounders, a late first, and a big expiring contract in Raef LaFrentz. That should get something, with this.
I'd offer Memphis both first round picks, LaFrentz, Channing Frye, and Martell Webster in exchange for Mike Miller and Cardinal's death trap. That would make this team scary.
P: I had a strong feeling this is where DeAndre Jordan would go, but it wouldn't be Portland who did it. But he's been dropping hard. Maybe Phoenix trades up to make sure they get Rush.
In any case, this pick will be moved, so it's tough to tell. I can't know who will go here until the trade happens. But I think the pick with the most value here is Brandon Rush. Someone will grab him here.
# 14 GOLDEN STATE
S: I wouldn't make the Yi deal I said earlier because I like Wright as a real inside presence in their offense. I do think they can target Yi, though. If they can give up this pick, a future one, and agree to take on Gadzuric, then I would try that. If they can give up Wright and other people, but keep this pick, I would also do that and take Arthur or JaVale McGee.
If they keep the pick, they have interesting choices. Speights is a good scorer down low, but he might not have the conditioning they like. Jordan is another risky prospect, which hasn't worked out. Arthur is too much like Wright; they shouldn't have both. Kostas Koufos might be a good fit because he's a big who can run and shoot it fairly well. If they don't make any deals, I think he's the guy.
P: I think they will try to get Yi again, but as my predictions are going, I will pencil in Koufos here.
# 15 PHOENIX
S: I'd hope that Brandon Rush drops. In this case, he doesn't. If he's gone, I might trade this pick and Barbosa for a better wing.
If Augustin somehow slipped this far, and Rush was gone, however much I doubt it, I'd take him to ease Nash. He could even replace him in a few years. The problem here is that Rush might go at spot 13, depending who picks there.
I'd make this offer to Portland if they do pick Rush or someone else wants him at 13: Barbosa and # 15 for # 13 and Jarret Jack. That way, they could get Rush and also bring in a backup point whom the Blazers are iffy on. The Blazers would then have a quick guard to pair with Roy.
P: They trade up to get Rush. He just makes too much sense for them not to get him. I don't know who ends up with this pick in the long run, but I do think this is where people start taking gambles... so let's say DeAndre Jordan.
# 16 PHILLY
S: First off, I'd make a big offer to Elton Brand and hope the Clips give up. I hate to work this way, but they have a history of cheapness. As for this pick, they will likely look at Jordan, Arthur and Speights. If all are there, I like Speights. Arthur is more athletic and that would seem to fit them, but I think they want to find a big guy with some actual offense. Jordan just looks lost.
I wondered during the season if maybe they would think about taking Hibbert and pairing him up with Dalembert to give them tons of size. Hibbert is slow, but maybe that helps him if he's not the only big guy. Or maybe this would be terrible. I'm not sure. I've been reading a lot about Speights since most experts have targeted him for the Sixers, and I'm getting worried. David Thorpe has seen a lot of him and thinks he's a bust.
Of course, if he's the sorry note they use to take Brand, I feel much better.
P: Speights. I will cross my fingers that he's trying.
# 17 TORONTO *****
S: This pick is now supposedly going to Indiana as part of the big deal. I thought Toronto would be content to take Robin Lopez for depth here, but I give them credit. They traded an expensive backup they weren't going to use that much for a former all-star. Even if JO is washed up, they didn't really lose much, and he'll be a free agent again soon.
So for the Pacers, if they took a big man last time, they will go for a guard here. They seemed to have solved their point guard spot, but they need depth. Tinsley and Ford have injury history, and neither is a great shooter. Chalmers can shoot and play both guard spots. It's something.
P: Mario Chalmers.
# 18 WASHINGTON
S: They always seem to need big guys. Andray Blatche and Oleksiy Perechov are still up in the air. They will likely have a chance with McGee and Hibbert, maybe even Jordan and Speights. Hibbert is a hometown guy, which may help or hurt. They've certainly seen a lot of him. I like McGee because he has more upside, but Hibbert would be able to come off the bench and score down low.
P: Hibbert has been looking better lately, and he'd generate more fan interest than anyone you can get at this point. He can score down low, and they don't have that.
# 19 CLEVELAND
S: They should get a big guy who can score, because Varejao and Big Ben can't. Koufos is local and knows LeBron, but he may be gone. They'll likely pick from the same guys Washington did. I like Hibbert if he's here. He can play the half court. Arthur is more athletic but less refined. McGee might be too much of a question mark. Speights would be terrific but I think he won't be there.
One guy who I first thought might be too much of a reach but now isn't? Jason Thompson. He's big and can score. He played at a small school, but you can't overlook a 6-10 guy with skills. Plus, he's ready to play. They can't wait for prospects. Pending on who is available, I go Koufos, Speights, Hibbert, Thompson, Arthur, McGee.
P: In this case, it's Thompson.
# 20 DENVER ***** CHAR
S: To counteract New Jersey, I would certainly NOT trade Melo. He's worth too much. They have a good team; I see a few tweaks rather than a complete overhaul. They might want a tall point to play next to Iverson, and a big who can shoot.
Well, it looks now like they will not even try to grab anyone here. That's okay, no one stood out as a definite answer to them. This pick is heading to Charlotte, and they want a point guard bad. If Chalmers is still on the board, they made a good pick. If not.... I'm not sure where they head. They'll probably grab another big guy and hope free agency nets them something.
P: Without Chalmers, they take a crack at French big man Alexis Ajinca. He's the anti-Lopez, unproven but athletic. Maybe it will all even out for them.
# 21 NEW JERSEY
S: Again, who knows if they pick here. This could easily be traded. If they stay, it depends on what they did with the tenth pick. If they didn't get a big there, they will now. If they did, they will go for depth on the perimeter. Most likely, they will choose amongst the big guys I've been talking about for the last few picks.
P: Well, I had them taking Gallinari earlier, so I guess they will go for Arthur here. They'd actually be really excited to get both. They'd even consider Arthur at 10.
# 22 ORLANDO
S: Depends on if they want to keep the small lineup or go big again. I think Van Gundy likes small ball if he can get better guards. They will look at Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas Roberts. They supposedly like Lee the best, and I have to agree. He's solid.
P: Courtney Lee
# 23 UTAH
S: Everyone says they need another big guy. Don't they already have Millsap off the bench, plus Jarron Collins, plus Fesenko - another huge prospect? But I guess they can't get any more wings after they did the last few years. I'd go with Chalmers if he's available. They don't have a true backup to Williams.
If he's gone, I suppose I take a look at big men. I guess it wouldn't hurt to add a defender. Now that Toronto's out, they could grab the other Lopez. He can come in and hurt people in the way Boozer and Okur won't.
P: Robin Lopez.
# 24 SEATTLE
S: If they keep this, they will probably go for an international post prospect, or a local project. I'd do the same.
If McGee or Jordan are available, it wouldn't hurt to take a look. They've already tried 4 big man projects in the past few years... fifth time's the charm? I think they need a true off guard who can shoot, not just throwing Durant there, but they have time for that later.
P: JaVale McGee
# 25 HOUSTON
S: They always seem to need power forwards, but that might be a reach here. Besides, they finally have some in Scola and Landry, while Steve Novak and Chuck Hayes are nice specialists. I hear they like Thompson or Ryan Anderson, but are they any better than those guys?
I think they should go for a wing, because there are none after McGrady and Battier. Donte Greene has slipped this far in my predictions because no one needed him before. They'd be delighted to get him.
P: Greene, which could be a steal.
# 26 SAN ANTONIO
S: They need to get younger on the wings. Usually, they'd go for an international big, but they have enough of those. They will look at who is available amongst Lee, Douglas-Roberts, Greene, Chalmers, and Nicolas Batum. If Batum is still there, he would fit in perfectly with what they do. He was talked about as a lottery pick in the past few years, so he might be a steal.
I hear they want Ryan Anderson, but is he any better than Matt Bonner? Or someone they could find for cheap in free agency?
P: Batum. Doesn't this sound exactly like the kind of thing that always happens to them?
# 27 PORTLAND
S: The Hornets gave up because they didn't think they could get a good player here. I thought they could probably land Douglas-Roberts or Lee, but they might not. I did say that if both of those guys were gone, I would trade out of the first round.
Portland is up to something. I don't know what, but they are. They can always go international.
P: Ante Tomic, another project they can stash or trade.
# 28 MEMPHIS
S: If they still have this pick, they should add some depth on the wing, if they took a big guy earlier. Any wing left would help, especially a two guard. Most mocks have them looking at J. J. Hickson, a raw four. Well, it can't hurt to stockpile big prospects.
It's hard to make a prediction without knowing if they will trade Miller. Why not look at college star CDR? He's not Derrick Rose, but he's familiar with fans.
P: Hickson. Everyone likes him here.
# 29 DETROIT
S: I'd look at the trade offers. I would probably do the Billups/Prince for Melo deal. I might trade 'Sheed if I had to.
What do they actually need in the draft? A true center who can score down low, but that's hard to find here. They were probably hoping earlier that people would sour on Hibbert, but that may not happen anymore. McGee, if he drops, is a Detroit native and a risky pick, but not so much at this stage.
If CDR slips this far, he's also a Detroit native who can play right away. As much as they need a big guy, he's local and the best guy on the board by far. He'd give them depth and might ease the burden of any trade.
P: Chris Douglas Roberts
# 30 BOSTON
S: They can always use another big guy, since P.J. will probably hang it up. Not right now, but eventually. That means international. They will likely take the best big guy left, which I think means whomever the other teams in the 20's don't take.
If Lee or Douglas-Roberts fell to them, they might sweep them up. They were scared about Tony Allen because of his poor shooting and handling. If any spot is a concern, it might be two guard.
Also, they could look at Ryan Anderson, who seems projected to go around here. He's a big man shooter in the vein of Steve Novak or Matt Bonner. He could fit.
P: Anderson. He's supposedly guaranteed to go in the first round, so he can't be any lower on the list. Let's hope he's worth more than Scalabrine.
...
...
And that does it for the first round. In the second round, I look for some sleepers who can do different things, like specialists. Anderson will be a target if he doesn't go in the first. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can D it up, even if he can't score. Kyle Weaver can shoot and play both guard spots. Bill Walker was once a top prospect, but got hurt. He could slip into the first if he looks better. Davon Jefferson came out too early, but he was rated high once. Joey Dorsey brings rebounding and energy, if nothing else. Trent Plaisted has decent offense for a big guy. All of these guys could be bench players if they work. I also look at internationals who will take a few years to develop.
The first five picks in the second round are: Minnesota, Seattle, Portland, Minnesota, LA Clippers, and Portland. This leads me to believe that Minnesota and Portland will be busy trading up. Or out.
But I guess we'll really find out tomorrow night.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
finals thoughts, and the incredible shrinking beasley
After a day joyously listening to the LA fans display anger and embarrassment, I had to think about just what happened. Not just in that game 6 blowout, but the whole series. I jumped on board the Lakers-can't-lose bandwagon, and I'm glad I was wrong, but I'm surprised to see people getting upset so quickly. This wasn't supposed to be a strong year for the Lakers; they spent all summer trying to satisfy Kobe and were never at full strength for the latter half of the season. They won one of the toughest conferences in recent memory despite new people and a large hole at center. They beat the Spurs and the Jazz without a huge front line. Now the fans want an overhaul?
Chill out, LA: you may look bad now, but if Bynum comes back, there's really not much to worry about. Gasol and Odom had to play bigger then they should in the finals, and Boston was the only team to really expose it. But if they have Bynum, Gasol only now has to worry about the 4, and Odom can go back out to the wing. That's a huge front line, as I've said before, and athletic. They can absolutely dominate with that big front line and Kobe in the back. Their main problems in the finals were rebounding and interior defense; Bynum helps to solve that. Adding him in makes them huge again and completely changes the opposition's defensive plans. I really think it's that simple for them.
Of course, people want an overhaul, and believe that they can get it for nothing (well, they did last year). There's no way the Lakers can or should do that. Odom, however, is going to be a free agent next year, so his contract might be attractive to other teams. I predicted that he would be out, because of that contract, when the Lakers were looking for trades to help Kobe. Maybe now the Lakers will take a quick look at what's available. I'd keep him for next year, unless something great comes up. He faded in this series, but if he gets to play more on the perimeter, and he's not the main focus, he does better. He had to play down low all the time and he was expected to take a lot of shots, and that's not his style. Bynum teamed with Gasol would allow him to take advantage of smaller wings and contribute on the boards as a slashing wing, not a true post player. Trust me, he's much more effective that way.
Bynum's health should be the key issue of the summer for them. Even if he comes back strong, though, they might want to look at a legitimate backup center who can board and mix it up inside (Desanga Diop? someone like that?). Other than that, I don't think they have to go crazy. I would trade Radmanovic or Walton, but I doubt other teams are that interested.
Anyway, it was nice to see Boston's guys get it, even if I can't have much sympathy for the franchise or the city right now. They're a likable bunch. Considering everything that's happened, I guess it's the best outcome. I feel for the Phoenix guys, but I can't think of any team besides the Sixers that I could really root for like the group Boston had.
------------------------------
Onto draft matters.... June is such a great month for hoops. Imagine if the NFL held their draft a week after the Super Bowl happened.
I'm getting worried by all the Beasley stories. I thought Chicago should just take him and forget about everything else. It was too simple. But now, in light of his height revelation, I am starting to back off a little. It's not that I think he'll be a bust, but if he's not a legitimate four, his value goes way down. Bigger guys are harder to replace, and if his real position is the three, he's just not as attractive, even though I'm fairly convinced he can score 20 a night from day one. It would kinda kill what Chicago needs, and Miami already has Marion and Haslem. They can't go that small with all three. So if he's projected as a small forward - which he was by scouts at the beginning of the season - I don't really know if he should be the first pick. The Bulls know Rose will be a solid true point. If they don't know if Beasley will be a solid true PF, maybe that makes it easier for them.
Of course, he'll have plenty of suitors. Miami could deal the pick to Memphis, to get some players and the fifth pick to get Mayo, but then the Wolves could deal the next pick to other teams who also want Mayo. I'm thinking that if Miami wants Mayo more than Beasley, but knows that Mayo won't slip past three or four, then they'll probably just have to accept Minnesota's offer. The Wolves could give Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man, and they have two early second round picks. It's something. Miami gets the guy they want and some extra pieces for depth. Minnesota has a tough tandem with Jefferson and Beasley, and they have the time to figure out which positions those guys should play.
I don't know why Memphis likes Kevin Love at # 5. They could trade down, package that with all their extra pieces for an established star, or go for someone with more promise like Anthony Randolph. Love and Darko together? That's not going anywhere.
This is going to be a great week. There's so many potential moves. Right now, if I had to do a mock (and I love doing these), here's my idea:
1. Bulls - Derrick Rose
2. Wolves (trade) - Michael Beasley
3. Heat (trade) - O.J. Mayo
4. Sonics - Jarryd Bayless
5. Grizzlies - Anthony Randolph (just think about it, please, or fold the team)
6. Knicks - Russell Westbrook
7. Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Bucks - Joe Alexander
9. Bobcats - Brook Lopez
10. Nets - Kevin Love
11. Pacers - D.J. Augustin
12. Kings - Danilo Gallinari (surprised he drops, but he doesn't fit in NJ and they can play him next to Artest for now)
13. Blazers - DeAndre Jordan (they'll trade this to someone)
14. Warriors - Donte Greene
15. Suns - Brandon Rush (if he's gone, they may make some trades)
16. Sixers - Marreese Speights
17. Raptors - Robin Lopez
18. Wizards - Roy Hibbert
19. Cavs - Kostas Koufos
20. Nuggets - JaVale McGee
21. Nets - Darell Arthur
22. Magic - Courtney Lee
23. Jazz - Nicolas Batum
24. Sonics - Serge Ibaka
25. Rockets - Jason Thompson
26. Spurs - Mario Chalmers
27. Hornets - Chris Douglas-Roberts
28. Grizzlies - J.J. Hickson
29. Pistons - Alex Anjia
30. Celtics - Nathan Jawal
Chill out, LA: you may look bad now, but if Bynum comes back, there's really not much to worry about. Gasol and Odom had to play bigger then they should in the finals, and Boston was the only team to really expose it. But if they have Bynum, Gasol only now has to worry about the 4, and Odom can go back out to the wing. That's a huge front line, as I've said before, and athletic. They can absolutely dominate with that big front line and Kobe in the back. Their main problems in the finals were rebounding and interior defense; Bynum helps to solve that. Adding him in makes them huge again and completely changes the opposition's defensive plans. I really think it's that simple for them.
Of course, people want an overhaul, and believe that they can get it for nothing (well, they did last year). There's no way the Lakers can or should do that. Odom, however, is going to be a free agent next year, so his contract might be attractive to other teams. I predicted that he would be out, because of that contract, when the Lakers were looking for trades to help Kobe. Maybe now the Lakers will take a quick look at what's available. I'd keep him for next year, unless something great comes up. He faded in this series, but if he gets to play more on the perimeter, and he's not the main focus, he does better. He had to play down low all the time and he was expected to take a lot of shots, and that's not his style. Bynum teamed with Gasol would allow him to take advantage of smaller wings and contribute on the boards as a slashing wing, not a true post player. Trust me, he's much more effective that way.
Bynum's health should be the key issue of the summer for them. Even if he comes back strong, though, they might want to look at a legitimate backup center who can board and mix it up inside (Desanga Diop? someone like that?). Other than that, I don't think they have to go crazy. I would trade Radmanovic or Walton, but I doubt other teams are that interested.
Anyway, it was nice to see Boston's guys get it, even if I can't have much sympathy for the franchise or the city right now. They're a likable bunch. Considering everything that's happened, I guess it's the best outcome. I feel for the Phoenix guys, but I can't think of any team besides the Sixers that I could really root for like the group Boston had.
------------------------------
Onto draft matters.... June is such a great month for hoops. Imagine if the NFL held their draft a week after the Super Bowl happened.
I'm getting worried by all the Beasley stories. I thought Chicago should just take him and forget about everything else. It was too simple. But now, in light of his height revelation, I am starting to back off a little. It's not that I think he'll be a bust, but if he's not a legitimate four, his value goes way down. Bigger guys are harder to replace, and if his real position is the three, he's just not as attractive, even though I'm fairly convinced he can score 20 a night from day one. It would kinda kill what Chicago needs, and Miami already has Marion and Haslem. They can't go that small with all three. So if he's projected as a small forward - which he was by scouts at the beginning of the season - I don't really know if he should be the first pick. The Bulls know Rose will be a solid true point. If they don't know if Beasley will be a solid true PF, maybe that makes it easier for them.
Of course, he'll have plenty of suitors. Miami could deal the pick to Memphis, to get some players and the fifth pick to get Mayo, but then the Wolves could deal the next pick to other teams who also want Mayo. I'm thinking that if Miami wants Mayo more than Beasley, but knows that Mayo won't slip past three or four, then they'll probably just have to accept Minnesota's offer. The Wolves could give Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man, and they have two early second round picks. It's something. Miami gets the guy they want and some extra pieces for depth. Minnesota has a tough tandem with Jefferson and Beasley, and they have the time to figure out which positions those guys should play.
I don't know why Memphis likes Kevin Love at # 5. They could trade down, package that with all their extra pieces for an established star, or go for someone with more promise like Anthony Randolph. Love and Darko together? That's not going anywhere.
This is going to be a great week. There's so many potential moves. Right now, if I had to do a mock (and I love doing these), here's my idea:
1. Bulls - Derrick Rose
2. Wolves (trade) - Michael Beasley
3. Heat (trade) - O.J. Mayo
4. Sonics - Jarryd Bayless
5. Grizzlies - Anthony Randolph (just think about it, please, or fold the team)
6. Knicks - Russell Westbrook
7. Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Bucks - Joe Alexander
9. Bobcats - Brook Lopez
10. Nets - Kevin Love
11. Pacers - D.J. Augustin
12. Kings - Danilo Gallinari (surprised he drops, but he doesn't fit in NJ and they can play him next to Artest for now)
13. Blazers - DeAndre Jordan (they'll trade this to someone)
14. Warriors - Donte Greene
15. Suns - Brandon Rush (if he's gone, they may make some trades)
16. Sixers - Marreese Speights
17. Raptors - Robin Lopez
18. Wizards - Roy Hibbert
19. Cavs - Kostas Koufos
20. Nuggets - JaVale McGee
21. Nets - Darell Arthur
22. Magic - Courtney Lee
23. Jazz - Nicolas Batum
24. Sonics - Serge Ibaka
25. Rockets - Jason Thompson
26. Spurs - Mario Chalmers
27. Hornets - Chris Douglas-Roberts
28. Grizzlies - J.J. Hickson
29. Pistons - Alex Anjia
30. Celtics - Nathan Jawal
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Thursday, June 12, 2008
not so fast, comrades
After 3 games, the finals present some interesting subplots. The Celtics are beating up on the Lakers inside, and Kobe looks pissed. I don't think he wanted to be selfish and take 50 shots a game, but now he might have to. Gasol and Odom are disappearing, and only spurts by Vujacic and Radmanovic shooting have helped them at all. Despite everyone in the entire basketball-watching world knowing that the Lakers would come out fired up for game 3, and get more calls going their way, they really didn't play great until the late going. Boston hung in there despite their big guns having off nights. Now I can see them winning a game in LA, which I highly doubted before the series started. Add that to the first two games, and I'm really wondering about the Lakers' chances.
The Lakers did make some nice moves by attacking more and having Kobe guard Rondo, who doesn't shoot a lot outside, but the Celts can counter this by playing House more (which, um, they should have been doing anyway). Pierce is still mysteriously guarded about his injury, so who knows. But even though the Lakers won last night, I'm very impressed by the Celtics. Of course, maybe the Lakers will put it together. And if Odom and Radman aren't doing anything, they should think about Ariza more. He can play D.
Some league-wide thoughts...
The Donaghy scandal took a sharp turn yesterday. I don't know if he's honest, but I always thought the Kings got a raw deal. Of course, so do lots of people. But still, he's waited to make these allegations 6 years after it happened and several months after he was arrested. To do it now shows he's more interested in saying F you to Stern than he is about being honest. He really wanted to stick the knife in his back.... if he had said this when he was first arrested, I might have believed him more. He needs proof before anything can really happen. But Stern looked extra pissed in his comments. I hope there's nothing going on.
I've been thinking about the draft and the different options Chicago (and thus Miami) have. Chicago doesn't need to start over, just move a few guys. Miami does. So when I heard about the trade rumors, I started thinking. I said the Bulls needed to take Beasley because it's hard to find a good big man, and they built their team up around a post player that they just don't have. Also, it's easy for them to move Gooden and Ty Thomas - really easy - to make room for Beasley, but it's nearly impossible to move Hinrich and Hughes to make room for Rose. So if Miami is really willing to deal Wade to move up, they can both benefit from this.
Here's how it could work - along with the right to switch picks, Miami gives up Wade and Udonis Haslem, who is solid but won't help them rebuild. Chicago sends them Gooden (cap filler), Thomas, and Ben Gordon (signed to a deal first). Now look at the potential lineups - Chciago has Noah, Beasley, Deng, Hinrich, and Wade, with Nocioni, Haslem, and Hughes coming off the bench. Miami has Gooden, Thomas, Marion, Rose, and Gordon, without a real center, but that's a fun team to watch. Plus, they can evaluate and will probably have a high pick next year.
I just keep thinking about styles and how people will mesh. Wade dominates the ball, which is why I'm so curious about the Heat initially wanting Rose. I don't know if they fit together. You need a shooter alongside Wade, which might be why the Heat are looking at O. J. Mayo now. He fits with Wade. This trade would create some nice backcourts: Wade would relieve Hinrich of ball handling pressure, and Hinrich could focus more on D and hitting jumpers, which is more his thing. Rose would have the ball in his hand and be flanked by up-tempo players who could fit a good running scheme (Marion, Thomas, Gordon raining outside jumpers). With Beasley inside, and Wade outside, Deng and Hinrich only have to be supporting players, and I think Chicago would be fantastic. That's a devastating offense if they work together. Miami would give up a lot, but then they'd have an exciting team to watch and only one more guy to find. I like this. I like it a lot. Even if the Heat aren't planning on keeping Marion, maybe they can get the Bulls to throw in Deng or Nocioni.
I was really pushing this upon the news of Doug Collins coming back to the Bulls, as he plays slow, half-cort sets. But that's not happening now. I still like it.
If Chicago still takes Rose anyway, that could set off some other stuff. I don't think they can trade Hinrich easily, but I did suggest in my trade deadline column that they might consider sending him and some big guys to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal. Who knows if JO will be healthy again, but it would solve their problems of lacking a dominant big man and finding a taker for Hinrich. If Indiana can get Eric Gordon in the draft, and pair him with Hinrich, that might work. They can get Thomas to be the new PF, and they also might want to give Ike Diogu more minutes. This is a possibility.
Miami would then go after Mayo, since they're not high on Beasley and O.J. fits well with Wade. They could trade down, and I think Memphis would be smart to offer some pieces. Miami would take Mike Miller and/ or Kyle Lowry any day, if that works, and then hope to get Mayo at number five. Maybe they could send something to Minnesota in hopes that the Wolves do not take Mayo.... maybe they take back Antoine Walker's contract? That might help, if that's possible. I can't calculate it right now, but they might work out some sort of agreement. This would help each team.
I guess we'll just have to see in a few weeks.
The Lakers did make some nice moves by attacking more and having Kobe guard Rondo, who doesn't shoot a lot outside, but the Celts can counter this by playing House more (which, um, they should have been doing anyway). Pierce is still mysteriously guarded about his injury, so who knows. But even though the Lakers won last night, I'm very impressed by the Celtics. Of course, maybe the Lakers will put it together. And if Odom and Radman aren't doing anything, they should think about Ariza more. He can play D.
Some league-wide thoughts...
The Donaghy scandal took a sharp turn yesterday. I don't know if he's honest, but I always thought the Kings got a raw deal. Of course, so do lots of people. But still, he's waited to make these allegations 6 years after it happened and several months after he was arrested. To do it now shows he's more interested in saying F you to Stern than he is about being honest. He really wanted to stick the knife in his back.... if he had said this when he was first arrested, I might have believed him more. He needs proof before anything can really happen. But Stern looked extra pissed in his comments. I hope there's nothing going on.
I've been thinking about the draft and the different options Chicago (and thus Miami) have. Chicago doesn't need to start over, just move a few guys. Miami does. So when I heard about the trade rumors, I started thinking. I said the Bulls needed to take Beasley because it's hard to find a good big man, and they built their team up around a post player that they just don't have. Also, it's easy for them to move Gooden and Ty Thomas - really easy - to make room for Beasley, but it's nearly impossible to move Hinrich and Hughes to make room for Rose. So if Miami is really willing to deal Wade to move up, they can both benefit from this.
Here's how it could work - along with the right to switch picks, Miami gives up Wade and Udonis Haslem, who is solid but won't help them rebuild. Chicago sends them Gooden (cap filler), Thomas, and Ben Gordon (signed to a deal first). Now look at the potential lineups - Chciago has Noah, Beasley, Deng, Hinrich, and Wade, with Nocioni, Haslem, and Hughes coming off the bench. Miami has Gooden, Thomas, Marion, Rose, and Gordon, without a real center, but that's a fun team to watch. Plus, they can evaluate and will probably have a high pick next year.
I just keep thinking about styles and how people will mesh. Wade dominates the ball, which is why I'm so curious about the Heat initially wanting Rose. I don't know if they fit together. You need a shooter alongside Wade, which might be why the Heat are looking at O. J. Mayo now. He fits with Wade. This trade would create some nice backcourts: Wade would relieve Hinrich of ball handling pressure, and Hinrich could focus more on D and hitting jumpers, which is more his thing. Rose would have the ball in his hand and be flanked by up-tempo players who could fit a good running scheme (Marion, Thomas, Gordon raining outside jumpers). With Beasley inside, and Wade outside, Deng and Hinrich only have to be supporting players, and I think Chicago would be fantastic. That's a devastating offense if they work together. Miami would give up a lot, but then they'd have an exciting team to watch and only one more guy to find. I like this. I like it a lot. Even if the Heat aren't planning on keeping Marion, maybe they can get the Bulls to throw in Deng or Nocioni.
I was really pushing this upon the news of Doug Collins coming back to the Bulls, as he plays slow, half-cort sets. But that's not happening now. I still like it.
If Chicago still takes Rose anyway, that could set off some other stuff. I don't think they can trade Hinrich easily, but I did suggest in my trade deadline column that they might consider sending him and some big guys to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal. Who knows if JO will be healthy again, but it would solve their problems of lacking a dominant big man and finding a taker for Hinrich. If Indiana can get Eric Gordon in the draft, and pair him with Hinrich, that might work. They can get Thomas to be the new PF, and they also might want to give Ike Diogu more minutes. This is a possibility.
Miami would then go after Mayo, since they're not high on Beasley and O.J. fits well with Wade. They could trade down, and I think Memphis would be smart to offer some pieces. Miami would take Mike Miller and/ or Kyle Lowry any day, if that works, and then hope to get Mayo at number five. Maybe they could send something to Minnesota in hopes that the Wolves do not take Mayo.... maybe they take back Antoine Walker's contract? That might help, if that's possible. I can't calculate it right now, but they might work out some sort of agreement. This would help each team.
I guess we'll just have to see in a few weeks.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Lakers vs. Celtics and the NBA Playoffs
Ahhhh, yes. I remember the first real basketball game I got for Genesis, Electronic Arts' first foyer into sports gaming (I think). They named it after the two classic franchises who had battled so much, even though the year it came out, the finals actually featured Detroit beating Portand. In their defense, that would've sounded so much lamer. Also, the Lakers and Celtics were seen as the great rivals, even though they only met 3 times in the 80's, although they did account for 8 titles and one of them was in the finals every year. In any case, EA wanted to make their debut by paying homage, and it's a nice touch for a maker whose games have really been a part of my life.
That's just one of the 50 million nostalgic stories that are circulating this week. It's my personal favorite aspect of that nostalgia, but I must admit that I'm kinda disappointed. I know I should be happy for the league and excited that ratings will be high and I won't be so mocked for loving basketball. I see everyone jumping on board and that's cool.... but I'm also a little dismayed by how things came to be.
I always hate to see LA and New York get all the attention and have things handed to them at times. Maybe now I should throw Boston in there as well. Yes, I'm still fuming a little over the Gasol trade. I don't hate the Lakers, and I don't hate Kobe (my MVP vote, even if it means nothing, was all for him), but I don't feel like they really deserved that. They should have suffered for the Shaq deal and the subsequent Kwame deal, but then it all magically turned better for them. Being out here, I here from fans that it was just a right of life; that they expected it, and that it was just another good thing to happen to them. Everyone else was furious. Remember this.
As for the Celtics, their trades weren't nearly as one-sided, and they gave up some young guys, but they're still a strange team. They're thrown together oddly, like the '97 Florida Marlins, as a mixture of vets looking for a title with a few key draftees who step up. I like all their guys, actually, but I don't feel like this is a real Celtics team. It could have been any team that had the right pieces and used them, but of course it was the team with the most titles in history. I'd feel better if it was some place tortured, like Cleveland or Indiana.... umm, maybe Philly... just saying.... but no, it's Boston. Again.
So I don't really have any rooting interest. I guess I would root for the Celtics because I like their individual guys, but they're getting awfully spoiled in Boston. I know the Celtics have been terrible for a while, unlike the Pats and Sawx, but they're still the most successful franchise in league history. I don't feel anything for the Lakers for that trade, and also for the fact that I know they're going to be good the next few years - even better, in fact, with Andrew Bynum coming back. I didn't think they could make it this far without him and they did, so what will they do next year?
Who do I like? I think I hate everyone. I'm from Philly, so that's okay.
What is my actual prediction? Let's break this down:
BOS DEF: The Celtics played defense when it counted. They can shut down big guys and point guards, but they struggle with wings. This might be why they didn't dominate early in the playoffs - Atlanta was all young wings, Cleveland survived only on LeBron. They just didn't match up well. Detroit needed a big series from Sheed and didn't get it, and Garnett helped that. Billups was hurt, but Rondo is also doing good. The only guy that really killed Boston was Rip Hamilton, but that was enough.
Well, the Lakers have the best wing in the league, and they don't offer much at point guard, so that doesn't really help the Celts at all. I'm interested to see how Boston matches up down low - Perkins and KG have been great on D, but if the Lakers keep their smaller lineups, one of them is going to have to face Odom or Radmanovic. I think Garnett is versatile enough to do that, but it pulls him away from the basket. Gasol can do that too with his midrange game, so maybe LA will stay out of the paint.
Interestingly, when these teams met this season, the Celts basically let Kobe open a lot outside and dared him to shoot every time. It worked, as he shot a lot, but didn't get others involved, they won both games. But the Spurs just tried to do the same thing, and it didn't work for them. If Ray Allen isn't making shots, I think they have to use Posey. Even if he is, they probably want to make Kobe work a little bit.
The Celts' D is good, but they're in for a tough battle because....
LA O: They're rolling. They can all shoot, and Kobe is dying to prove himself. I think Gasol is a little too outside for Perkins, and Odom can be all over the place. He's my choice as the biggest X factor in this series. He can take advantage of Pierce if he wants to. The Celts will try to be physical, but the Lakers have rolled over the Spurs and Jazz, who have bigger frontlines and usually knock people around.
BOS O / LA DEF: The Celts are good, but if Ray isn't hitting shots, they're in trouble. Garnett needs to step up big here, but it's not his tendency. Pierce can probably go off on anyone, but he'll be matched by Kobe. The Lakers are weak on both ends at the point, so Rondo could have some big games, but he's not a scorer. The Celts should watch when the subs are in. Jordan Farmar is struggling and they could get Eddie House some open looks.
The Lakers will try to minimize the size advantage by playing small and fast and just outscoring the Celtics. Kobe, determined more than ever, might have some good looks on Pierce, but probably he'll stick Allen and just watch his shots. The Celts might try to abuse them down low with depth, by bringing in P. J. Brown, Leon Powe and Big Baby, while the Lakers only have Turiaf on their bench. If Odom, Gasol, or Turiaf gets in foul trouble, that could help the Celts big time.
Bottom line, the Lakers have more weapons and match up well. This is a nice matchup in that one team relying strongly on offense will go against one relying on D. I just don't think Boston's strengths match with the Lakers' weaknesses. The Lakers scored a ton against the Spurs, who have been great defensively for a long time. The Celtics can't match that firepower if the games are high-scoring. If Ray catches fire and Garnett plays like he should, the Celtics could pull it out. I just don't see it.
Lakers in 6.
That's just one of the 50 million nostalgic stories that are circulating this week. It's my personal favorite aspect of that nostalgia, but I must admit that I'm kinda disappointed. I know I should be happy for the league and excited that ratings will be high and I won't be so mocked for loving basketball. I see everyone jumping on board and that's cool.... but I'm also a little dismayed by how things came to be.
I always hate to see LA and New York get all the attention and have things handed to them at times. Maybe now I should throw Boston in there as well. Yes, I'm still fuming a little over the Gasol trade. I don't hate the Lakers, and I don't hate Kobe (my MVP vote, even if it means nothing, was all for him), but I don't feel like they really deserved that. They should have suffered for the Shaq deal and the subsequent Kwame deal, but then it all magically turned better for them. Being out here, I here from fans that it was just a right of life; that they expected it, and that it was just another good thing to happen to them. Everyone else was furious. Remember this.
As for the Celtics, their trades weren't nearly as one-sided, and they gave up some young guys, but they're still a strange team. They're thrown together oddly, like the '97 Florida Marlins, as a mixture of vets looking for a title with a few key draftees who step up. I like all their guys, actually, but I don't feel like this is a real Celtics team. It could have been any team that had the right pieces and used them, but of course it was the team with the most titles in history. I'd feel better if it was some place tortured, like Cleveland or Indiana.... umm, maybe Philly... just saying.... but no, it's Boston. Again.
So I don't really have any rooting interest. I guess I would root for the Celtics because I like their individual guys, but they're getting awfully spoiled in Boston. I know the Celtics have been terrible for a while, unlike the Pats and Sawx, but they're still the most successful franchise in league history. I don't feel anything for the Lakers for that trade, and also for the fact that I know they're going to be good the next few years - even better, in fact, with Andrew Bynum coming back. I didn't think they could make it this far without him and they did, so what will they do next year?
Who do I like? I think I hate everyone. I'm from Philly, so that's okay.
What is my actual prediction? Let's break this down:
BOS DEF: The Celtics played defense when it counted. They can shut down big guys and point guards, but they struggle with wings. This might be why they didn't dominate early in the playoffs - Atlanta was all young wings, Cleveland survived only on LeBron. They just didn't match up well. Detroit needed a big series from Sheed and didn't get it, and Garnett helped that. Billups was hurt, but Rondo is also doing good. The only guy that really killed Boston was Rip Hamilton, but that was enough.
Well, the Lakers have the best wing in the league, and they don't offer much at point guard, so that doesn't really help the Celts at all. I'm interested to see how Boston matches up down low - Perkins and KG have been great on D, but if the Lakers keep their smaller lineups, one of them is going to have to face Odom or Radmanovic. I think Garnett is versatile enough to do that, but it pulls him away from the basket. Gasol can do that too with his midrange game, so maybe LA will stay out of the paint.
Interestingly, when these teams met this season, the Celts basically let Kobe open a lot outside and dared him to shoot every time. It worked, as he shot a lot, but didn't get others involved, they won both games. But the Spurs just tried to do the same thing, and it didn't work for them. If Ray Allen isn't making shots, I think they have to use Posey. Even if he is, they probably want to make Kobe work a little bit.
The Celts' D is good, but they're in for a tough battle because....
LA O: They're rolling. They can all shoot, and Kobe is dying to prove himself. I think Gasol is a little too outside for Perkins, and Odom can be all over the place. He's my choice as the biggest X factor in this series. He can take advantage of Pierce if he wants to. The Celts will try to be physical, but the Lakers have rolled over the Spurs and Jazz, who have bigger frontlines and usually knock people around.
BOS O / LA DEF: The Celts are good, but if Ray isn't hitting shots, they're in trouble. Garnett needs to step up big here, but it's not his tendency. Pierce can probably go off on anyone, but he'll be matched by Kobe. The Lakers are weak on both ends at the point, so Rondo could have some big games, but he's not a scorer. The Celts should watch when the subs are in. Jordan Farmar is struggling and they could get Eddie House some open looks.
The Lakers will try to minimize the size advantage by playing small and fast and just outscoring the Celtics. Kobe, determined more than ever, might have some good looks on Pierce, but probably he'll stick Allen and just watch his shots. The Celts might try to abuse them down low with depth, by bringing in P. J. Brown, Leon Powe and Big Baby, while the Lakers only have Turiaf on their bench. If Odom, Gasol, or Turiaf gets in foul trouble, that could help the Celts big time.
Bottom line, the Lakers have more weapons and match up well. This is a nice matchup in that one team relying strongly on offense will go against one relying on D. I just don't think Boston's strengths match with the Lakers' weaknesses. The Lakers scored a ton against the Spurs, who have been great defensively for a long time. The Celtics can't match that firepower if the games are high-scoring. If Ray catches fire and Garnett plays like he should, the Celtics could pull it out. I just don't see it.
Lakers in 6.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
and then there were four (and a complete lottery)
Some thoughts on the conference finals:
New Orleans has nothing to really fret about. They made it a lot further than I expected, and they scared the crap out of the Spurs. Who saw that coming before the season? I thought they were only an off guard away, but the way Jannero Pargo played in these playoffs shocked everyone. Their crunch time line up is pretty close to owning.
I'd say the same thing about the Lakers, even though they won. I think they can beat the Spurs, but again, without Bynum, they're in trouble defensively. Then again, if the Spurs struggled with the Hornets, how will they handle the Lakers? This is tough to gauge.
Spurs in 6, but I don't have much faith in that.
The Cavs-Celtics series intrigued me on a couple levels. I remember thinking Ray Allen was stupid years ago for coming back to Seattle for lots of cash instead of going to Cleveland to form a tandem with LeBron. Now, I don't know. He's slowing down and he might be more of a problem soon. Not that Larry Hughes was a good choice, at all, but they might not want Allen now.... or maybe they would, because then Boston would never have made themselves into a contender. Weird how fate brought them back together.
Also, they almost had Delonte West kill them, which would have been painful.
I'm wondering now how Cleveland moves forward. The look they had at the end of the year was reminiscent of the Iverson 76ers: one guy scores 40, you hope other people chip in enough to get 90, and play good defense. That doesn't sound good when LeBron is constantly questioned about his future. But they also have enough expiring contracts next year to maybe make a move.
Also, if rumors are true about the Nuggets shopping Melo to the Nets, they have to act soon. LeBron going to the Nets is already played out, but if they could somehow get him and Melo on the same team.... well, that's not even fair, is it?
As for this series, it seems like Detroit is the easy pick, but never doubt how the good name teams get... ummm... certain advantages. Plus, I want to see Boston make it with the worst possible record, making them the reverse Patriots.
Celtics in 7, and I don't have much faith in this either.
In other news, the lottery was today. Actually just watched it. Conspiracists may or may not point to the Bulls and their not-that-bad record, or that the top two teams were in the East, but hey, at least the Knicks didn't move up. In the race of Michael Beasley vs. Derrick Rose for top pick, I think this means that Beasley is now the top choice, despite Rose being from Chicago. They'd have to move Kirk Hinrich to take Rose, and they still need someone inside who can actually score. If they make Beasley the new center of the offense, and now Loul Deng and Ben Gordon can be supporting players, doesn't that make them what they wanted to be? They could turn it around fast with a new coach and some moves (don't know if they can dump Larry Hughes, but Drew Gooden and Gordon can be had).
Miami will gladly take Rose. That's a nice backcourt to rebuild around. The Wolves will be okay with probably O.J. Mayo, the Grizzlies (eternally disappointed) will make do with Brook Lopez, and the Sonics, Knicks, and Clippers will fight over guards. Eric Gordon, Jarryd Bayless, and Russell Westbrook are all combo guards who haven't quite proven themselves at the point, but those teams all need it, especially the Knicks.
After that? I don't know yet. But the top seven are pretty important.
New Orleans has nothing to really fret about. They made it a lot further than I expected, and they scared the crap out of the Spurs. Who saw that coming before the season? I thought they were only an off guard away, but the way Jannero Pargo played in these playoffs shocked everyone. Their crunch time line up is pretty close to owning.
I'd say the same thing about the Lakers, even though they won. I think they can beat the Spurs, but again, without Bynum, they're in trouble defensively. Then again, if the Spurs struggled with the Hornets, how will they handle the Lakers? This is tough to gauge.
Spurs in 6, but I don't have much faith in that.
The Cavs-Celtics series intrigued me on a couple levels. I remember thinking Ray Allen was stupid years ago for coming back to Seattle for lots of cash instead of going to Cleveland to form a tandem with LeBron. Now, I don't know. He's slowing down and he might be more of a problem soon. Not that Larry Hughes was a good choice, at all, but they might not want Allen now.... or maybe they would, because then Boston would never have made themselves into a contender. Weird how fate brought them back together.
Also, they almost had Delonte West kill them, which would have been painful.
I'm wondering now how Cleveland moves forward. The look they had at the end of the year was reminiscent of the Iverson 76ers: one guy scores 40, you hope other people chip in enough to get 90, and play good defense. That doesn't sound good when LeBron is constantly questioned about his future. But they also have enough expiring contracts next year to maybe make a move.
Also, if rumors are true about the Nuggets shopping Melo to the Nets, they have to act soon. LeBron going to the Nets is already played out, but if they could somehow get him and Melo on the same team.... well, that's not even fair, is it?
As for this series, it seems like Detroit is the easy pick, but never doubt how the good name teams get... ummm... certain advantages. Plus, I want to see Boston make it with the worst possible record, making them the reverse Patriots.
Celtics in 7, and I don't have much faith in this either.
In other news, the lottery was today. Actually just watched it. Conspiracists may or may not point to the Bulls and their not-that-bad record, or that the top two teams were in the East, but hey, at least the Knicks didn't move up. In the race of Michael Beasley vs. Derrick Rose for top pick, I think this means that Beasley is now the top choice, despite Rose being from Chicago. They'd have to move Kirk Hinrich to take Rose, and they still need someone inside who can actually score. If they make Beasley the new center of the offense, and now Loul Deng and Ben Gordon can be supporting players, doesn't that make them what they wanted to be? They could turn it around fast with a new coach and some moves (don't know if they can dump Larry Hughes, but Drew Gooden and Gordon can be had).
Miami will gladly take Rose. That's a nice backcourt to rebuild around. The Wolves will be okay with probably O.J. Mayo, the Grizzlies (eternally disappointed) will make do with Brook Lopez, and the Sonics, Knicks, and Clippers will fight over guards. Eric Gordon, Jarryd Bayless, and Russell Westbrook are all combo guards who haven't quite proven themselves at the point, but those teams all need it, especially the Knicks.
After that? I don't know yet. But the top seven are pretty important.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
revised playoff picks
Yipes. What is going on here? Basketball in Atlanta is suddenly alive again, if it ever was. The Lakers had little trouble adjusting to the mountains. The Hornets, whom (like many) I didn't expect much out of, would not let the Mavs get close.
And then there are the two series I really didn't see coming - Spurs v Suns and Sixers v Pistons. Much like last year, I was ready to bet that the winner of a Spurs-Suns series would take it all. After an epic game 1, it looked like this would come down to seven intense battles. But even though the Suns were close, they never really got over that, and suddenly, they're done.
The Sixers, meanwhile, stole the first game with no real explanation, then got the third one at home to go up. Improbably, they were up big in game 4 and looking to get Detroit in the death zone when the Pistons finally woke up. Now, Detroit seems to be attentive and in control, after a big win tonight. But still, the hometowners are making a statement, and they are closer to being good again than we imagined.
So now what? Half of my finals prediction is trash, and I'm not feeling so certain about anything else. The Hornets, Magic and the Lakers have impressed me so much, while the Jazz and Pistons are struggling. And the Celtics? Tsk, tsk.
Well, here's my new call for the next rounds:
BOS over CLE in 7
DET over ORL in 7
SAN over NO in 6
LAL over UT in 7
SAN over LAL in 6
BOS over DET in 6
BOS over SAN in 7
Yeah... I don't like it, and I think the possibility of a retro Celtics-Lakers finals is rising everyday, but I am sticking to my belief that no Andrew Bynum is going to kill them at some point. It would kill them against Utah if the Jazz had anyone who could remotely stay with Kobe. That series will be good, but I can't see the Jazz taking any road games.
I've been moving towards the Celtics for a while, and naturally, they look angry and confused now. I think they will pull out of it.... and I think Detroit is way too unfocused for such a veteran team. I don't think the Spurs will have enough to repeat after that brutal road. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to the Lakers or maybe even Hornets.
This could all change shortly.......
And then there are the two series I really didn't see coming - Spurs v Suns and Sixers v Pistons. Much like last year, I was ready to bet that the winner of a Spurs-Suns series would take it all. After an epic game 1, it looked like this would come down to seven intense battles. But even though the Suns were close, they never really got over that, and suddenly, they're done.
The Sixers, meanwhile, stole the first game with no real explanation, then got the third one at home to go up. Improbably, they were up big in game 4 and looking to get Detroit in the death zone when the Pistons finally woke up. Now, Detroit seems to be attentive and in control, after a big win tonight. But still, the hometowners are making a statement, and they are closer to being good again than we imagined.
So now what? Half of my finals prediction is trash, and I'm not feeling so certain about anything else. The Hornets, Magic and the Lakers have impressed me so much, while the Jazz and Pistons are struggling. And the Celtics? Tsk, tsk.
Well, here's my new call for the next rounds:
BOS over CLE in 7
DET over ORL in 7
SAN over NO in 6
LAL over UT in 7
SAN over LAL in 6
BOS over DET in 6
BOS over SAN in 7
Yeah... I don't like it, and I think the possibility of a retro Celtics-Lakers finals is rising everyday, but I am sticking to my belief that no Andrew Bynum is going to kill them at some point. It would kill them against Utah if the Jazz had anyone who could remotely stay with Kobe. That series will be good, but I can't see the Jazz taking any road games.
I've been moving towards the Celtics for a while, and naturally, they look angry and confused now. I think they will pull out of it.... and I think Detroit is way too unfocused for such a veteran team. I don't think the Spurs will have enough to repeat after that brutal road. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to the Lakers or maybe even Hornets.
This could all change shortly.......
Friday, April 25, 2008
the 2007-08 NBA awards
As promised, my awards for a stunning and fantastic regular season. All of these were tough and I was delighted with the great play this year.
MOST IMPROVED - Hedo Turkoglu, Magic
2. Jose Calderon, Raptors
3. Louis Williams, Sixers
4. Linus Kleiza, Nuggets
5. Sasha Vujacic, Lakers
Turkoglu is an easy choice as someone who really stepped it up this season. He started out with promise in Sacramento, but never was more than a decent sub. When Orlando signed Rashard Lewis, it seemed like he would come off the bench or be a distant third option. But he was huge for them, and it was his play from outside that really helped Dwight Howard make that team decent.
Calderon did a lot after T. J. Ford went down, showing maybe he should be the guy in charge. Williams came on as a terror on a surprisingly good second unit for the Sixers. Kleiza found a nieche in Denver, so much that they wouldn't include him in any deals for Ron Artest. Vujacic redeemed himself after a few years of pretty much nothing for the Lakers, and filled in nicely with Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza out.
6TH MAN - Manu Ginobli, Spurs
2. Jason Terry, Mavs
3. Leandro Barbosa, Suns
4. James Posey, Celtics
5. Jason Maxiell, Pistons
This is another easy choice as Ginobli is an all-star but likes to come off the bench for San Antonio. He carried this team at points and is good enough to be on a high all-league team. Terry does well in small lineups in Dallas, with Kidd now handing off to him. Barbosa, last year's winner, slipped a little bit in numbers but is still crucial for them. Posey was a bargain save for the Celtics after their big three left them no money for a bench. He pretty much kept that second unit together until they brought in more people. Maxiell is the only real low-post presence for the Pistons, and he's key to their success.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Kevin Garnett, Celtics
2. Marcus Camby, Nuggets
3. Shane Battier, Rockets
3. Bruce Bowen, Spurs
5. Rajon Rondo, Celtics
Everyone is going for Garnett now because of his impact on the Celtics, and also because they want to recognize him in a year that would get MVP many seasons, but not now. He's never won it, either, so he's got sentiment. Normally I wouldn't, but I have to admit that he has transformed this team. Their defense has been the strength of their turnaround, and it's mostly due to his intensity. Also, no one else has risen up.
Camby, last year's winner, loses points because his team can't guard anyone (even though people were trying to say that they did because they play so fast.... well, the Lakers are exposing them). Battier and Bowen are great wing defenders, and Rondo is another factor for Boston because of his long arms and quickness.
ALL DEFENSE FIRST TEAM
Garnett, Camby, Battier, Rondo, Bowen
ALL DEFENSE SECOND TEAM
Ron Artest, Kings
Josh Smith, Hawks
Dwight Howard, Magic
Chris Paul, Hornets
Quintin Ross, Clippers
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Kevin Durant, Sonics
2. Al Horford, Hawks
3. Al Thornton, Clippers
I'm only putting three because there's no one else. In fact, it's mostly a two man race. Horford has put up a double-double and been the only big man for the Hawks, who are in the playoffs, so he has a lot going for him. But Durant is better. People are turning on him because he takes a lot of bad shots and his team is horrible. But for all the drama going on in the great city of Seattle, and the terrible team he's been dealt, I think he's handled it pretty well. Sure, he gets a lot of shots, but why not? Who else is going to score for this team? Any rookie that can average 20 a game has to be a major candidate, no matter what. Few guys can get to that level anymore. He's the first option already and he's scored because he has to. Look at how few rookies have gotten to that mark over the past decade. I give him the edge, but I do appreciate Horford's play.
ALL ROOKIE FIRST TEAM
Durant, Horford, Thornton
Luis Scola, Rockets
Juan Carlos Navarro, Grizzlies
ALL ROOKIE SECOND TEAM
Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Jeff Green, Sonics
Carl Landry, Rockets
Thaddeous Young, Sixers
Jamario Moon, Raptors
COACH OF THE YEAR - Byron Scott, Hornets
2. Stan Van Gundy, Magic
3. Maurice Cheeks, Sixers
4. Doc Rivers, Celtics
5. Rick Adelman, Rockets
Remember when I said that the Hornets and Grizzlies would be in the hunt for the last few playoff spots, and I thought the Grizzlies had a slight edge? Yup. I feel stupid. It's not a huge surprise that the Hornets broke through to the playoffs, but to flirt with the best record in the conference? When the conference is as tough as ever? No one saw that. Even at the all-star break, most figured they would slow down. They didn't. Chris Paul obviously gets a lot of credit, but I think Scott did a great job with a roster that has some holes. They surprised everyone the most and he should win this easily.
Van Gundy made the most of a second chance and created just the right offense for their talents. Cheeks, whom I thought was brought in to be loyal to the organization as they went through rough times, managed to get a lot out of this unknown squad. I couldn't be prouder of him, no matter how they do this round. Rivers won't get much credit for the Cletics' turnaround, but he hasn't ruined anything yet. Adelman managed to win more games than Jeff Van Gundy did, even with the usual injuries still haunting Houston, and a dramatic change of style.
MVP - Kobe Bryant, Lakers
2. Chris Paul, Hornets
3. LeBron James, Cavaliers
4. Kevin Garnett, Celtics
I can't believe I'm writing this, because I'm tired of all the Kobe-fawning the media have displayed over the past few years out here, but I like him. It may have been a terrible thing, but his tirades lit a fire under this team and he wisely came back and bought into them. Yes, this roster has improved a lot over the past year, but then he also carried this team with Bynum missing a lot of time, and Gasol out in some spots too. I think about this: before the Gasol trade, Bynum was giving them some offense and a lot of D. Then he got hurt. They still played fairly well. Then they traded for Gasol, who gave them good offense but not a ton of D. They never had both of these guys on the court at the same time to complement each other. They went through changes and had more injuries than people realize. They made a lot of lineup changes. Through it all, though, Kobe stayed vicious and they won 57 games in a ridiculously tough conference. I think that counts as something.
In any other year, Paul might have gotten it. Actually, so would have LeBron, and he's gonna be third despite an unfathomable stat line. Paul is just a hair under Kobe for keeping a team no one expected to be great. As Bill Simmons, John Hollinger, and others have said, he might be having the best season of any point guard ever. He controls everything there and sets everyone up. David West and Tyson Chandler owe their surges to him. That roster doesn't look impressive, but he carried them to more wins than they've ever had, in a tough year. The only thing holding him back? I don't know how far he can go in the playoffs, whereas I expect the Lakers to do something (and dominate the next few years as well). If he proves himself now, (he's off to a good start), he might change my mind.
LeBron's unbelievable season loses a lot for his team not being that great in the weaker half, but he could still go off in the playoffs and scare everyone. Garnett, for as much as he has done, just can't compete with these great seasons. He's not even the person to fear most for opponents offensively on his own team. He's already got an MVP, so I think he'll be okay, especially if he gets the ring.
Think about it this way: if the Lakers had traded Kobe for, say, Ben Wallace, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, and Ben Gordon, how terrible would they be? Terrible. Beyond terrible. They would be the first-half Bulls without Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng... and look how the Bulls turned out. If the Hornets didn't have Paul, they would probably be awful, but pending on what point guard they had. The Cavs would obviously suck without LeBron because they built the whole team around him, but they only won 45 games with him. The Celtics, meanwhile, would probably still be decent if they hadn't made the KG trade - not great, but a playoff team with Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes helping the guys they have now. Does this make any sense? I don't know. But I think the scenarios of people not being there favors Kobe.
It's not sentiment or a lifetime achievement award; I just think he's broken through. I hope that's enough. If not, well, there are three other guys I can accept. This is a great year and they all deserve recognition.
One note for my all league team: I couldn't decide between Duncan and Howard as my starting center. Both were so good, and Duncan is usually listed as a forward, but I put him in at center all the time. I decided to go with both. It's a good year. We can have 6 people on the first team. This also means that we don't have 3 east guys and 2 west guys, which seemed a little unfair.
ALL NBA FIRST TEAM
Kobe, Paul, LeBron, Garnett
Dwight Howard, Magic
Tim Duncan, Spurs
ALL NBA SECOND TEAM
Carlos Boozer, Jazz
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs
Amare Stoudemire, Suns
Steve Nash, Suns
Chuancey Billups, Pistons
ALL NBA THIRD TEAM
Paul Pierce, Celtics
Tracy McGrady, Rockets
Chris Bosh, Raptors
Allen Iverson, Nuggets
Manu Ginobli, Spurs
HONORABLE MENTION
Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
Antawn Jamison, Wizards
That's all. More playoff notes coming soon.
MOST IMPROVED - Hedo Turkoglu, Magic
2. Jose Calderon, Raptors
3. Louis Williams, Sixers
4. Linus Kleiza, Nuggets
5. Sasha Vujacic, Lakers
Turkoglu is an easy choice as someone who really stepped it up this season. He started out with promise in Sacramento, but never was more than a decent sub. When Orlando signed Rashard Lewis, it seemed like he would come off the bench or be a distant third option. But he was huge for them, and it was his play from outside that really helped Dwight Howard make that team decent.
Calderon did a lot after T. J. Ford went down, showing maybe he should be the guy in charge. Williams came on as a terror on a surprisingly good second unit for the Sixers. Kleiza found a nieche in Denver, so much that they wouldn't include him in any deals for Ron Artest. Vujacic redeemed himself after a few years of pretty much nothing for the Lakers, and filled in nicely with Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza out.
6TH MAN - Manu Ginobli, Spurs
2. Jason Terry, Mavs
3. Leandro Barbosa, Suns
4. James Posey, Celtics
5. Jason Maxiell, Pistons
This is another easy choice as Ginobli is an all-star but likes to come off the bench for San Antonio. He carried this team at points and is good enough to be on a high all-league team. Terry does well in small lineups in Dallas, with Kidd now handing off to him. Barbosa, last year's winner, slipped a little bit in numbers but is still crucial for them. Posey was a bargain save for the Celtics after their big three left them no money for a bench. He pretty much kept that second unit together until they brought in more people. Maxiell is the only real low-post presence for the Pistons, and he's key to their success.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Kevin Garnett, Celtics
2. Marcus Camby, Nuggets
3. Shane Battier, Rockets
3. Bruce Bowen, Spurs
5. Rajon Rondo, Celtics
Everyone is going for Garnett now because of his impact on the Celtics, and also because they want to recognize him in a year that would get MVP many seasons, but not now. He's never won it, either, so he's got sentiment. Normally I wouldn't, but I have to admit that he has transformed this team. Their defense has been the strength of their turnaround, and it's mostly due to his intensity. Also, no one else has risen up.
Camby, last year's winner, loses points because his team can't guard anyone (even though people were trying to say that they did because they play so fast.... well, the Lakers are exposing them). Battier and Bowen are great wing defenders, and Rondo is another factor for Boston because of his long arms and quickness.
ALL DEFENSE FIRST TEAM
Garnett, Camby, Battier, Rondo, Bowen
ALL DEFENSE SECOND TEAM
Ron Artest, Kings
Josh Smith, Hawks
Dwight Howard, Magic
Chris Paul, Hornets
Quintin Ross, Clippers
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Kevin Durant, Sonics
2. Al Horford, Hawks
3. Al Thornton, Clippers
I'm only putting three because there's no one else. In fact, it's mostly a two man race. Horford has put up a double-double and been the only big man for the Hawks, who are in the playoffs, so he has a lot going for him. But Durant is better. People are turning on him because he takes a lot of bad shots and his team is horrible. But for all the drama going on in the great city of Seattle, and the terrible team he's been dealt, I think he's handled it pretty well. Sure, he gets a lot of shots, but why not? Who else is going to score for this team? Any rookie that can average 20 a game has to be a major candidate, no matter what. Few guys can get to that level anymore. He's the first option already and he's scored because he has to. Look at how few rookies have gotten to that mark over the past decade. I give him the edge, but I do appreciate Horford's play.
ALL ROOKIE FIRST TEAM
Durant, Horford, Thornton
Luis Scola, Rockets
Juan Carlos Navarro, Grizzlies
ALL ROOKIE SECOND TEAM
Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Jeff Green, Sonics
Carl Landry, Rockets
Thaddeous Young, Sixers
Jamario Moon, Raptors
COACH OF THE YEAR - Byron Scott, Hornets
2. Stan Van Gundy, Magic
3. Maurice Cheeks, Sixers
4. Doc Rivers, Celtics
5. Rick Adelman, Rockets
Remember when I said that the Hornets and Grizzlies would be in the hunt for the last few playoff spots, and I thought the Grizzlies had a slight edge? Yup. I feel stupid. It's not a huge surprise that the Hornets broke through to the playoffs, but to flirt with the best record in the conference? When the conference is as tough as ever? No one saw that. Even at the all-star break, most figured they would slow down. They didn't. Chris Paul obviously gets a lot of credit, but I think Scott did a great job with a roster that has some holes. They surprised everyone the most and he should win this easily.
Van Gundy made the most of a second chance and created just the right offense for their talents. Cheeks, whom I thought was brought in to be loyal to the organization as they went through rough times, managed to get a lot out of this unknown squad. I couldn't be prouder of him, no matter how they do this round. Rivers won't get much credit for the Cletics' turnaround, but he hasn't ruined anything yet. Adelman managed to win more games than Jeff Van Gundy did, even with the usual injuries still haunting Houston, and a dramatic change of style.
MVP - Kobe Bryant, Lakers
2. Chris Paul, Hornets
3. LeBron James, Cavaliers
4. Kevin Garnett, Celtics
I can't believe I'm writing this, because I'm tired of all the Kobe-fawning the media have displayed over the past few years out here, but I like him. It may have been a terrible thing, but his tirades lit a fire under this team and he wisely came back and bought into them. Yes, this roster has improved a lot over the past year, but then he also carried this team with Bynum missing a lot of time, and Gasol out in some spots too. I think about this: before the Gasol trade, Bynum was giving them some offense and a lot of D. Then he got hurt. They still played fairly well. Then they traded for Gasol, who gave them good offense but not a ton of D. They never had both of these guys on the court at the same time to complement each other. They went through changes and had more injuries than people realize. They made a lot of lineup changes. Through it all, though, Kobe stayed vicious and they won 57 games in a ridiculously tough conference. I think that counts as something.
In any other year, Paul might have gotten it. Actually, so would have LeBron, and he's gonna be third despite an unfathomable stat line. Paul is just a hair under Kobe for keeping a team no one expected to be great. As Bill Simmons, John Hollinger, and others have said, he might be having the best season of any point guard ever. He controls everything there and sets everyone up. David West and Tyson Chandler owe their surges to him. That roster doesn't look impressive, but he carried them to more wins than they've ever had, in a tough year. The only thing holding him back? I don't know how far he can go in the playoffs, whereas I expect the Lakers to do something (and dominate the next few years as well). If he proves himself now, (he's off to a good start), he might change my mind.
LeBron's unbelievable season loses a lot for his team not being that great in the weaker half, but he could still go off in the playoffs and scare everyone. Garnett, for as much as he has done, just can't compete with these great seasons. He's not even the person to fear most for opponents offensively on his own team. He's already got an MVP, so I think he'll be okay, especially if he gets the ring.
Think about it this way: if the Lakers had traded Kobe for, say, Ben Wallace, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, and Ben Gordon, how terrible would they be? Terrible. Beyond terrible. They would be the first-half Bulls without Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng... and look how the Bulls turned out. If the Hornets didn't have Paul, they would probably be awful, but pending on what point guard they had. The Cavs would obviously suck without LeBron because they built the whole team around him, but they only won 45 games with him. The Celtics, meanwhile, would probably still be decent if they hadn't made the KG trade - not great, but a playoff team with Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes helping the guys they have now. Does this make any sense? I don't know. But I think the scenarios of people not being there favors Kobe.
It's not sentiment or a lifetime achievement award; I just think he's broken through. I hope that's enough. If not, well, there are three other guys I can accept. This is a great year and they all deserve recognition.
One note for my all league team: I couldn't decide between Duncan and Howard as my starting center. Both were so good, and Duncan is usually listed as a forward, but I put him in at center all the time. I decided to go with both. It's a good year. We can have 6 people on the first team. This also means that we don't have 3 east guys and 2 west guys, which seemed a little unfair.
ALL NBA FIRST TEAM
Kobe, Paul, LeBron, Garnett
Dwight Howard, Magic
Tim Duncan, Spurs
ALL NBA SECOND TEAM
Carlos Boozer, Jazz
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs
Amare Stoudemire, Suns
Steve Nash, Suns
Chuancey Billups, Pistons
ALL NBA THIRD TEAM
Paul Pierce, Celtics
Tracy McGrady, Rockets
Chris Bosh, Raptors
Allen Iverson, Nuggets
Manu Ginobli, Spurs
HONORABLE MENTION
Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
Antawn Jamison, Wizards
That's all. More playoff notes coming soon.
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