Extended Season Preview: the Lower

In the first part of my in-depth preview, I look at the lottery teams. The sidewalk is their pillow this year. I will go in mostly worst-to-best order, not exact, but the mediocre teams come last.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

Remember when they almost won the title? That was only seven years ago, right? It seems like 50. Actually, it seems like this is the late 1980's for them all over again. This is the worst roster in the league by far. The only good thing I might be able to say is that they used to be stuck in mediocrity hell, being at the top of lottery teams and getting just okay draft picks, but now they're clearly just bad and will get high picks. Their talent level is low and they haven't drafted any guys recently to change that.

Tyreke Evans was supposed to help, but fits into that problem. I know, I know, after the Rubio disaster, they might look smart for not taking him and going with Evans. But Evans is not a point guard. People like him but they compare him to Jerry Stackhouse, which is not exactly what this team needs. Spencer Hawes is a nice young center, but I don't think he's a franchise player. Jason Thompson is in the same boat, and there's no big man depth behind them. Poor Kevin Martin is going to score 30 points a night because no one else can. He's going to be exhausted.

This team needs a major overhaul and might be leaving Sacto soon. In the meantime, things aren't looking any better. I will watch to see if Donte Green or Omri Casspi show anything, but I see a team without any great hope.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Few teams have had such a busy offseason, but most of the others have something to show for it. This franchise made news by getting a lot of nothing. Let's go back a few years to see how this all went wrong: they got less than they could on deals for KG and Sam Cassell. That sent them downhill and eventually cost Kevin McHale his job. Then, this summer, they traded Rnady Foye, who they were once really high on, for a pick in a less-than-stellar draft. Then, they used that pick (and their own) on two point guards, one of whom was iffy to stay in the draft. I don't know if there was something different they could have done to keep the infamous Ricky Rubio, but drafting another similar player next was not a good start. Now they are really thin in the back court, have no stars next to Jefferson, and are going to keep being bad for a while.

On the plus side, Kevin Love turned out to be fit for the NBA after all, and Jonny Flynn, while no Rubio, is a nice point who has room to grow. They really need wings, and they gave most of theirs away, but they still hope Corey Brewer will make something happen. That's four guys to build on.. but not much more. If they can land a star wing in the next draft or two, they might have the makings of something. For now, another long winter beckons.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Back around my senior year of high school, I worked at a store that sold sports memorabilia. It was really the perfect job for me because I could use sports knowledge to helpless moms and girlfriends looking for gift ideas. They had cards and figurines, and random things with logos like lamps and trash cans. There was a Vancouver Grizzlies trash can that always sat in the corner. I don't know why they had it, but it was clear they were never going to sell it. I took pity on it and told them it would make a nice Christmas gift. I still have it in my room.

I started watching this team because they struggled and they were in a beautiful city with nice people, according to everything I've ever heard. They drafted likable guys like Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Mike Bibby, but they kept losing. They eventually moved to Memphis, and had to deal everyone, but they turned things around. They brought in Jerry West, they drafted well, and they even made the playoffs. They had a nice roster, but at some point, the jackass owner decided that winning 50 games was not worth the money and they'd rather lose again. Of course! Who wants to be good when you can be bad for less money? What a great f---ing business plan! So they traded away their franchise player, and they lost.

I've never turned so hard. I went from rooting for them to openly demanding their non-existence. This franchise should not be around until they get someone else in charge. It's awful. I enjoyed seeing this team win, but then the owner brought down the hatchet and brought in a guy (Chris Wallace) to ensure they would lose and cut costs. He's made my brain bleed with his moves, which are so bad sometimes that it's amazing he can even function and has some talent on this roster.

For example, I noticed something about the Gasol trade that might make it even worse than we originally thought. Midway through the season, Memphis dealt Javaris Crittenton, the only good young player they got in that trade, to the Wizards for a first round pick. Not a bad investment, right? Well, it turns out that they were just getting back a pick that Washington had gotten from them two years ago in the Juan Carlos Navarro deal.

This got me thinking... two summers ago, the Wizards were looking to deal Navarro (they held his rights, but he didn't want to go there) to a number of teams after he had been a standout in Spain. He chose Memphis, mainly because they had his friend and fellow national team member Pau Gasol. Thus, when the Grizz dealt Gasol a few months later, they pretty much ensured that Navarro would not be coming back there. He indeed left after a decent rookie year.

So let's do the math here: they made a horrible trade, which itself created another problem around a guy he had just given up a future top pick for, and then traded one of the few decent assets of that horrible trade just to make up for that other problem that was created by that same horrible trade. I think this is like some circular reference, only it comes out in the negative. Needless to say, I haven't seen anyone compound themselves quite like Chris Wallace.

And now, he brings in Zach Randolph. He scores but does nothing else and screws up chemistry. You can't build a team around him. Pau Gasol took them to the playoffs three times. They could build around him. But to save money, they dumped him, and some other veterans who could win. Now they have an interesting young core, but they're going to ruin it with Z-Bo (and AI) demanding the ball. And, most amazingly, he makes about the same amount of money as Gasol. If they had just kept PG, they'd have a great foundation. Beautiful work, Chris.

Anyway, after reading my post about Iverson, I'm certain now that this is not going to work. He had the chances to do good last year and didn't. He might be getting desperate, and he claims he will try to fit in, but this is not a setting that evokes success. I would contract this team and send these young guys elsewhere if I could. Alas, they will be around this year. Sometimes, I don't like the NBA.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Remember that long rant I had before the draft about this franchise? They kept trading guys or not trading guys because of who they had, only to then trade those guys who were supposedly valuable to them? Well, it has reached an all-time low. They dumped Richard Jefferson (who cost them a former high pick) for money to save, so they could (I thought) keep Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions. Nope. Both gone. They've been bad recently and have nothing to show for several of those lottery picks. That is enough to ruin a franchise that spends, let alone one that doesn't.

This might be the most depressing situation in the league, if it wasn't for some comically abysmal other ones. I don't know if this team will ever be sold or not, but they have really just given up. The only young guys they have to build around are all suspect and unproven. The one guy that probably should get traded - veteran shooter (and expensive) Michael Redd - is still here. They got a nice bargain in Hakim Warrick, but if not for him, they wouldn't even have a real frontcourt. Throw in flashy but raw rookie Brandon Jennings at the point and we have a long, long season. I imagine they will start to field offers for Redd. Unless Andrew Bogut becomes a real offensive force, this team is dead.

NEW YORK KNICKS
NEW JERSEY NETS

I group these teams together because they play near each other and they've had the same goal for the past two years: get rid of guys with big contracts, develop young stars, and save cap space for this summer to get LeBron or other big free agents. Everyone points to the Knicks as the favorite to get the big stars, but the Nets have actually put together a much better roster. The Nets have a young star point guard in Devin Harris, a decent true center with post up moves (a rarity these days) in Brook Lopez, a nice guard who can shoot threes and defend in Courtney Lee, rebounders Josh Boone and Sean Williams, interesting wings Terrence Williams and Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Yi, who might be a bust, but is a big guy who can shoot, which is nice to have (and he'd help out with Chinese market expansion.... he's more of an off-court asset than on, amazingly). The Knicks have some nice pieces.... David Lee and Jordan Hill can board, but they aren't centers, wing Wilson Chandler is good, forward Danilo Gallinari is promising but I don't know where he plays, and Nate Robinson can score but is not a point and maybe shoots too much. And that's it. On top of that, they don't have their first round pick next year because of the Marbury trade (AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HAHA HAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAA IT'S STILL HAUNTING THEM) , and that hurts. Jersey will have their high pick, plus Dallas' pick.

So tell me why LeBron doesn't take a look at the Nets?

I said this a while ago, but the experts said that it wouldn't matter without them moving to Brooklyn. Now, with a fancy Russian billionaire involved, who knows? As for this year, both of them will struggle to win 30 games. I think the Knicks will because they're desperate, and have no reason to fold without that draft pick. They will try to trade Jared Jeffries and Eddy Curry, but who wants them? I'm watching, as is everyone. This will be a boring, yet very interesting year in the big apple.

NOT THE SUPERSONICS

I still can't name this team, especially when they are looking like a future powerhouse. Really rubs it in to Seattle, and they don't deserve that. They've drafted well and have a great core group of young stars. I like Harden a lot, and he doesn't even have to do much to succeed. They don't really have any big men for now, but they have some interesting guys coming up, like Ibaka and Mullens, who was once considered a top prospect. Durant will probably lead the league in scoring this year... and many more years after that. I think they'll be fun to watch, but they still need some actual depth and inside work to get to the postseason.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

You have to love the dubs, even if they hate themselves. This is a fascinating team that can score 150 points in a game, or give it up. There's no way to predict what will happen... except that, it was like this last year, and they didn't win 30 games. I imagine more of the same, but who knows? Anthony Randolph could be great. He could also flame out, freak out, and have to go somewhere else to thrive. Stephen Curry could be rookie of the year, or he could be buried because they have enough shooters. Stephen Jackson could pout, or.... actually, I don't think he'll stick around that long. That's one of the few safe bets here.

Despite the surprise loss of Baron Davis, Nellie has managed to keep this team loaded with interesting pieces. I don't know if they fit together - well, I know they don't in a traditional sense, but he doesn't care - but they can be good. I am intrigued to see what happens.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

This roster frustrates me. There isn't a single franchise player on it. No one is a lock to average 20 points a game. No one is ranked at the top 5 at their position. They have two point guards who look nice, but not great, fighting for minutes. They have a bunch of bad centers and not enough wings. No one will come close to making the all-star team, no one will be someone casual fans think of, no one is really exciting. Despite all this, they came within sniffing distance of the playoffs last year.

How???

Larry Brown has put together a roster that fits but doesn't amaze. He got rid of his one consistent outside threat, Jason Richardson, to get two decent but unspectacular starters in Boris Diaw and Raja Bell. He let Gerald Wallace handle things and most of the scoring, even though he's more of a slasher. He traded Emeka Okafor, not really a center or a forward or a franchise player, to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler, which brings defense but even less offense. I don't know who is going to score for this team, but I didn't last year and they did ok. Not good. But okay. They might have been a threat to slip in a weak playoff bracket, but the conference has improved enough so that I doubt that will happen.

Let's hope.

DETROIT PISTONS

As I said in my Iverson piece, I really thought they would be inspired last year and wouldn't lose a step, but they lost a flight of stairs and then some. They barely made the playoffs in a conference not as strong as it was when they dominated just a few years ago. No one really said much, because they were clearly setting up cap space to make a big run this summer. They did just that, grabbing Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

But why? They had a decent team. Was Joe Dumars bored? Was he unhappy that they had made a bunch of conference finals and was a consistent contender? He thought they'd never pass the up-and-coming teams, and maybe they wouldn't with the same roster, but a few moves here and there would have strengthened this team. He had already done well by drafting Rodney Stuckey, a nice combo guard to come off the bench, and young bigs in Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson. Detroit's problem in the years after that unlikely title was not the starting lineup, but depth; they won that title with more depth than people think, and a few post options. They were quietly putting together a young bench to help themselves, but Dumars got impatient. Now he has two people who don't really fix anything. Gordon gives them some of the same problems as Iverson did with fitting people in, and Villanueva is like Sheed... without the D.

Letting Ben Wallace go was the right idea, but they never got around to adding a real post player after that. Sheed didn't want to do that, and so they suffered. I thought they would rectify this and get a real center, especially after they gained so many forwards, but they spent money on two more outside guys. Now their center spot will be manned by a combination of a very washed up Ben, Chris Wilcox, and (gasp) Kwame Brown. Yikes. That's not getting you to the playoffs.

So they're back to where they were last year, and not much better, so I don't have them in the postseason. If they could make a trade (Hamilton for Boozer?) to get a real big man, they could be good. Right now, I don't understand what Dumars is doing.

INDIANA PACERS

Here's my preview for the Pacers last year:

"This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up."

Nothing changes. They added nice, quiet role players like Tyler Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones, just to replace people. No big shake ups. No trying anything outside the box. They are officially in mediocrity hell - not bad enough to land someone to make a difference, but not good enough to go anywhere. 36 wins again.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Much like Bill Simmons, I started following this team when I moved out here because, well, every other area pro team is pretty hatable. They're good at getting people who are sick of the Lakers and that bandwagon mess. I knew the experience would be depressing, but it's a whole different kind of depressing right now, because they actually have talent. The old Clippers teams were horrible because they drafted horrible people and didn't spend money on free agents. They had no one. In the past few years, however, they have made some nice moves and have even opened the checkbook a little. Yet they still lose.

The main problem, as the Sports Guy has banged out many times, is that Dunleavy the coach is much worse than Dunleavy the G.M., but he can't fire himself. And the owner never cares. I once thought maybe there was a chance that Stern would dump Sterling, but it's obvious now that he lets him off the hook, especially since it was revealed that the Clippers make money (which just makes me think the world is a bad place sometimes). In this rough time of economic problems, when small market franchises are struggling, I was hoping that Stern would realize that he had the chance to have two good teams in a big market, if he let someone else take over. The Clips could and should be better, making more of a rivalry with their much famous city-mates, but he's content to let them be bad. Oh well. I'd say they would bring in more money, but if they already do, nothing happens. And considering what's gone on in Golden State, Atlanta, Charlotte.... he's not even number one on the s-list anymore. All we can pray for is his death. Seriously. (On the bright side, he seems like a guy who would have a lot of vendettas against him.)

Anyway, this should be a playoff team, but it won't be. The starting five is balanced, and they picked up my boy Rasual Butler as a much needed wing off the bench. Blake Griffin should be rookie of the year, because there's really no one else, but if he's hurt.... well... maybe that makes sense. They even have a decent bench now, with Butler, Craig Smith, Sebastian Telfair, and several centers who will have to share time. None of this matters, because they don't like Dunleavy. Baron Davis regretted his signing almost immediately and has barely tried in his time here. A real owner would tell Dunleavy to bring in a coach, but this is how it goes.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Speaking of franchises with no luck.... these guys tried to create a solid team based around star players, and it was working great, until their bones broke like Sam Jackson in "Unbreakable." Last year, they finally had gotten the right mixture of role players around two big stars - T Mac and Yao - and a third almost star (Artest). They had followed the San Antonio plan to a t. They had settled on point guard and power forward rotations, their most troubled spots the past few years. If they had been all healthy (and for T Mac, honest), they would have been a major contender.

Instead, they go into this season with all supporters and no leads. I don't blame them, and with McGrady's contract expiring, they have a shot to come out of this ok. As for now, though, the regular season will be tough. I don't know who is going to score for them. They like Trevor Ariza, but he can't be the lead guy here. They are totally set up for the stars who are gone, so offense is a mystery. Still, can't you see them staying near .500 and driving people crazy? I envision the scrappy Orlando team that got Doc Rivers his Coach of the Year award. I just have a feeling they'll scrap and be better than they should be. Ultimately, the conference is probably too good for them to make the playoffs. If the Suns were good last year and didn't make it in with 46 wins.... they're in trouble. They will fight hard, they will surprise people, but they have a tough slate.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

The last lottery team on my slate is the hometown guys. First things first - let me congratulate them again on going back to the old logo and red-white-and-blue uniforms, as they always should have been.

Unfortunately, though, I have them in this section because I don't think they will make the playoffs. I think they will get close, and will probably flirt with .500, because they have done so the last 2 seasons with a similar cast. I just don't think they have enough, and the conference is better. Still, I'm not that angry. They've made some changes and there will be more to come. I accept this as a year of transition, because they have a lot to work on before they get anywhere. I also know that they've been building for after this season, when the entire East could change dramatically. Some teams are old (Boston) and some could change next year (Cleveland, Miami, well, almost everyone else). When the dust is settled after this summer, who knows what the East will look like, but the Sixers will have quietly put together a good team - if they do it right.

As I've said before, I didn't like them giving up on Mo Cheeks so early, especially right after he had inspired them at their lowest point (the Iverson trade, which left the team nearly dead). But he's not coming back now and I like Eddie Jordan enough to give him some time. He wants to revamp the offense, and that's good.

Basically, this year is about answering questions. Is Andre capable of playing guard and hitting outside shots? I know he's a great slasher and defender, and he will score, but he could be a regular all-star if he improves from outside. Is Lou Williams a point? Is Jrue Holiday ready soon? Is Thad a wing or a guy who excels in small lineups? Is there any way to make Dalambert worth the money? I always liked him. I don't want to give up on him yet. Does anyone else see the irony of souring on Korver and then dumping him, only to pick up Kapono a little bit later to do the same exact thing? (Actually, I know the answer to this - Korver was gone to get cap space. Still, it's funny.) Is Elton ever going to look like he did? Can I get excited about Speights?

These are the questions I want answered before the end of the season. There are many concerns, but I think Jordan will be looking at all of them. If he can figure this out, then in a year or two, they will be in a good position.