mock draft 2008

With just one day left, I present my mock draft. The NBA draft is always intriguing because one guy can make a huge difference. Franchises can change their direction in one night. Execs can look like geniuses and prolong their careers with one really smart pick. It doesn't get as much attention as the NFL draft, which is longer, but it has more impact. One guy cannot save or doom a football team (unless maybe he's a quarterback). Yet we forget that.....

I always do many mocks, but here I will post it and give thoughts on what I would do. I will give what teams should do (S) along with what I predict they will actually do (P). Let's roll.

# 1 CHICAGO
S: Well, I initially said that's it easy to just go Beas-y. But I'm not so sure now. I like that deal with Miami I drew up, where Wade and Beasley end up in Chicago, while Ty Thomas and Ben Gordon join Rose in south beach. But that's a lot to work out.

I think Rose is the safe pick, and there's no doubt he will sell tickets and get excitement going. For a guy on the hot seat like Paxson, that looks awfully good. I just hate to wrap my mind around the other moves they'd have to make with Rose. If they really could deal Hinrich for another big man, I wouldn't fault them. I still think the best thing to do is take Beasley, but I can see why they're scared.

As I've just learned, though, they can't get in on Jermaine O'Neal. That was one of the very few ways they could have dumped guards and got big men. That's not helping. If it was any other team with the same players, I'd say Beasley. Maybe.

P: They'll take Rose. They need a positive story.

# 2 MIAMI
S: That trade with Chicago is good, but maybe not as much for them, and I wouldn't want to give up on Wade yet. So I might not be that crazy. I do like the idea of joining Wade and Mayo, which seems like the real possibility here.

But I've been thinking recently.... doesn't it make more sense to just take Beasley and then trade/let go Marion? Marion needs a true point and a running team to succeed; Wade doesn't play that way. Beasley could play the three along Wade and Haslem in a half court offense; he could post up wings and then they wouldn't have to worry about his size or finding a real big man. And while Mayo would be a perfect compliment to Wade, it shouldn't be hard for them to find another combo guard who can shoot. They almost did last summer. So if Chicago does take Rose, I might just like Beasley, unless someone offers something really good for him.... but that would have to be Minnesota, because he won't slip past 3.

And if Rose is there, I'd trade down for Mayo. Other teams would offer a lot for Rose, so they can get more if he drops. I just don't like him and Wade together.

P: They take Beasley, then trade down. They'll see what they can get from Minnesota to get Mayo. Unless Riley really is working the most complex misdirection ever.

# 3 MINNESOTA
S: I'd do anything to get Beasley.They can play him at either forward, and let him find his way. He's better than anyone they can get at 3, and he's worth giving up things. They have two early second round picks and Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man for Miami. If that's not enough, they have Miami's first round pick next year. I don't think they can re-acquire Mark Blount, but maybe they can try or make a promise to later. Or McHale can tell Riley, "Riles... come on.... I took Antoine Walker off your hands, and gave you the expiring contract from Ricky Davis. I believe you owe me." If Miami wants to move down, they need to make this happen.

If Beasley is unavailable, I'd trade down. I like Mayo, and much more than any of their guards, but they need a forward or center. In that case, see what the Knicks or Clippers will offer and then take Gallinari or Love.

If Miami has Rose and wants to trade down, they can take Mayo and then make the Heat include them in a deal.

P: Mayo to trade up. They find a way to get Beasley if Miami doesn't want him. McHale needs some positive news as much as anyone else.

# 4 SEATTLE
S: They like Bayless and Westbrook, and I do too. Of course, I'd trade anyone not named Durant to get Rose if he becomes available, but that doesn't leave a lot. Most likely, it comes down to the combo guards. I might actually like Eric Gordon the best out of them because I know he can play the two if he doesn't work as a point; the others are going to struggle if they can't adjust. Bayless looks good, but he doesn't have much room for failure. Westbrook would at least bring defensive guarantees. It's tough. I'd consider swapping with the Knicks to get Westbrook and see what they can add in.

Late news is them leaning towards Brook Lopez. Not a terrible idea, because their last few centers haven't worked out. But then, what if he does too? That's a lot of wasted projects when there are still good guards available. I don't know if they take that risk at number 4.

P: I thought they might swap with the Knicks, but it appears that Westbrook is high on a lot of lists. So I think they just stay here and take him.

# 5 MEMPHIS
S: Good Lord, where to start? They seem to be high on Kevin Love, who is not a franchise guy. They need a star big man, not a complimentary pick. Also, since Juan Carlos Navarro left, and they might deal Mike Miller, they could use a wing. This team is in such disarray, who knows anymore. I would roll the dice with Anthony Randolph, or even take Brook Lopez, who is slow...but so is Love.... and Lopez has a real post game and a few inches on him. Randolph would at least have the potential to be an athletic four, with younger Gasol and Darko slumming around.

P: They apparently love Love. But who knows. They might trade this pick and Brian Cardinal for a used Ford Tempo the way things are going.

# 6 NEW YORK
S: If there's any way they can get Derrick Rose, do that. No matter what. Same with Mayo. I like all those guys for D'Antoni.

However, I expect all of them to be gone by now, with the Knicks picking between either Bayless or Westbrook, and also D.J. Augustin, or maybe addressing forward with Randolph, Gallinari, or Joe Alexander. They need a point guard, and I like Augustin the best. Westbrook will be much better defensively, but I don't think D'Antoni is even going to try playing any D with this team, and Westbrook doesn't fit the offense. Augustin has been compared to Steve Nash and I'd even say that he has the best point guard skills of anyone offensively in this draft besides Rose (and he's a better shooter). His only problem is his size, but I really think that will only hurt him defensively. Chris Paul is an inspiration.

I know Augustin isn't rated this high, so maybe they look at trading down, but I would go with him.

P: Tough call. They've been rumored with a number of people. Bayless is slipping, but I can't imagine D'Antoni passing up on a quick guard who can score. Even if he's not a real point, he brings size and offense.

# 7 LA CLIPPERS
S: If they can't move up to get Bayless or Mayo, they will look between Gordon and Westbrook, if available. Westbrook brings a local audience and great D, but Gordon would be fine. As long as they have guard depth, they're heading the right way. The bigger concern is signing Elton Brand (or not) and getting Shaun Livingston healthy.

P: Eric Gordon. No one else is left here.

# 8 MILWAUKEE
S: If Golden State offers Brandan Wright and the 14th pick for Yi, I do that in a second. Then I take Gallinari. If they want to just add one guy, it's a tough call. They might look at Westbrook if they are going to trade Redd or Mo Williams. They should go with Joe Alexander. Originally, his only problem was that no one knew much about him and this seemed too high to take him. But now he's moving up fast, so they won't feel as bad. He gives them a nice mix of shooting and athleticism at the three.

P: Alexander, unless they've got some major trades in mind.

# 9 CHARLOTTE
S: They need a center, but that center should have some shooting ability. Love, if he drops, is a nice fit. Brook Lopez has been getting dissed, but at this pick, he's a steal. They've been heard to like Westbrook, but even though they need a backup point, they need another big guy much more. Also, they will apparently have the # 20 pick now. That ought to find them guard help.

P: Brook Lopez.

# 10 NEW JERSEY
S: They have a plan in place. First off, I'd try anything to make that deal with Denver to get Carmelo. If they have him and no one else in three years, they'll be in good shape to entice LeBron. I'd give Denver everything, even Devin Harris.

As the roster looks now, I would go for Randolph if he drops. Same with Love. Without those two, I would probably move onto DeAndre Jordan, Darell Arthur, and Marreese Speights. I like Speights the most there, although Arthur would fit in with the current team.

But it seems now like they're very intent on trading Richard Jefferson, since I hear his names in about 5 different trade rumors a day. So maybe they can fit Gallinari, as widely speculated.

P: Everyone seems to think this is where Gallinari goes, so I'll bite.

# 11 INDIANA
S: Everything I had ready went down the drain when the big trade was announced. Personally, I think they can do better. I'd rather have Ty Thomas and Kirk Hinrich. They were tired of JO being injured all the time, but Ford has had several big injury scares as well. He's a real point, but he can't shoot it that well.

So now, instead of targeting a point, they may want to gamble on another big man. Ike Digou showed some promise when they first got him, but he didn't do much last year. This is a nice time to take a swing on a project. If Randolph slips, they might have a steal in a few years.

P: Anthony Randolph is still there, and I think they gladly take the chance.

# 12 SACRAMENTO
S: They need a point or a four. Again, they'll be happy if Westbrook or Augustin is available. I doubt both slip.

If both are gone, they may look at Arthur, Jordan, or Speights. They've been rumored to like Roy Hibbert, and I think he'll actually have some value, but this seems too high. I'd go with Arthur then, unless Randolph is still around.

P: Augustin is here in my prediction. They'll be stoked. They may want to send a thank you note to Toronto for solving Indiana's point problem.

# 13 PORTLAND
S: They'll probably trade this pick, and that's smart. The only guy I could kinda like for them here is Alexander, but I doubt he'll be available. They have two early second rounders, a late first, and a big expiring contract in Raef LaFrentz. That should get something, with this.

I'd offer Memphis both first round picks, LaFrentz, Channing Frye, and Martell Webster in exchange for Mike Miller and Cardinal's death trap. That would make this team scary.

P: I had a strong feeling this is where DeAndre Jordan would go, but it wouldn't be Portland who did it. But he's been dropping hard. Maybe Phoenix trades up to make sure they get Rush.

In any case, this pick will be moved, so it's tough to tell. I can't know who will go here until the trade happens. But I think the pick with the most value here is Brandon Rush. Someone will grab him here.

# 14 GOLDEN STATE
S: I wouldn't make the Yi deal I said earlier because I like Wright as a real inside presence in their offense. I do think they can target Yi, though. If they can give up this pick, a future one, and agree to take on Gadzuric, then I would try that. If they can give up Wright and other people, but keep this pick, I would also do that and take Arthur or JaVale McGee.

If they keep the pick, they have interesting choices. Speights is a good scorer down low, but he might not have the conditioning they like. Jordan is another risky prospect, which hasn't worked out. Arthur is too much like Wright; they shouldn't have both. Kostas Koufos might be a good fit because he's a big who can run and shoot it fairly well. If they don't make any deals, I think he's the guy.

P: I think they will try to get Yi again, but as my predictions are going, I will pencil in Koufos here.

# 15 PHOENIX
S: I'd hope that Brandon Rush drops. In this case, he doesn't. If he's gone, I might trade this pick and Barbosa for a better wing.

If Augustin somehow slipped this far, and Rush was gone, however much I doubt it, I'd take him to ease Nash. He could even replace him in a few years. The problem here is that Rush might go at spot 13, depending who picks there.

I'd make this offer to Portland if they do pick Rush or someone else wants him at 13: Barbosa and # 15 for # 13 and Jarret Jack. That way, they could get Rush and also bring in a backup point whom the Blazers are iffy on. The Blazers would then have a quick guard to pair with Roy.

P: They trade up to get Rush. He just makes too much sense for them not to get him. I don't know who ends up with this pick in the long run, but I do think this is where people start taking gambles... so let's say DeAndre Jordan.

# 16 PHILLY
S: First off, I'd make a big offer to Elton Brand and hope the Clips give up. I hate to work this way, but they have a history of cheapness. As for this pick, they will likely look at Jordan, Arthur and Speights. If all are there, I like Speights. Arthur is more athletic and that would seem to fit them, but I think they want to find a big guy with some actual offense. Jordan just looks lost.

I wondered during the season if maybe they would think about taking Hibbert and pairing him up with Dalembert to give them tons of size. Hibbert is slow, but maybe that helps him if he's not the only big guy. Or maybe this would be terrible. I'm not sure. I've been reading a lot about Speights since most experts have targeted him for the Sixers, and I'm getting worried. David Thorpe has seen a lot of him and thinks he's a bust.

Of course, if he's the sorry note they use to take Brand, I feel much better.

P: Speights. I will cross my fingers that he's trying.

# 17 TORONTO *****
S: This pick is now supposedly going to Indiana as part of the big deal. I thought Toronto would be content to take Robin Lopez for depth here, but I give them credit. They traded an expensive backup they weren't going to use that much for a former all-star. Even if JO is washed up, they didn't really lose much, and he'll be a free agent again soon.

So for the Pacers, if they took a big man last time, they will go for a guard here. They seemed to have solved their point guard spot, but they need depth. Tinsley and Ford have injury history, and neither is a great shooter. Chalmers can shoot and play both guard spots. It's something.

P: Mario Chalmers.

# 18 WASHINGTON
S: They always seem to need big guys. Andray Blatche and Oleksiy Perechov are still up in the air. They will likely have a chance with McGee and Hibbert, maybe even Jordan and Speights. Hibbert is a hometown guy, which may help or hurt. They've certainly seen a lot of him. I like McGee because he has more upside, but Hibbert would be able to come off the bench and score down low.

P: Hibbert has been looking better lately, and he'd generate more fan interest than anyone you can get at this point. He can score down low, and they don't have that.

# 19 CLEVELAND
S: They should get a big guy who can score, because Varejao and Big Ben can't. Koufos is local and knows LeBron, but he may be gone. They'll likely pick from the same guys Washington did. I like Hibbert if he's here. He can play the half court. Arthur is more athletic but less refined. McGee might be too much of a question mark. Speights would be terrific but I think he won't be there.

One guy who I first thought might be too much of a reach but now isn't? Jason Thompson. He's big and can score. He played at a small school, but you can't overlook a 6-10 guy with skills. Plus, he's ready to play. They can't wait for prospects. Pending on who is available, I go Koufos, Speights, Hibbert, Thompson, Arthur, McGee.

P: In this case, it's Thompson.

# 20 DENVER ***** CHAR
S: To counteract New Jersey, I would certainly NOT trade Melo. He's worth too much. They have a good team; I see a few tweaks rather than a complete overhaul. They might want a tall point to play next to Iverson, and a big who can shoot.

Well, it looks now like they will not even try to grab anyone here. That's okay, no one stood out as a definite answer to them. This pick is heading to Charlotte, and they want a point guard bad. If Chalmers is still on the board, they made a good pick. If not.... I'm not sure where they head. They'll probably grab another big guy and hope free agency nets them something.

P: Without Chalmers, they take a crack at French big man Alexis Ajinca. He's the anti-Lopez, unproven but athletic. Maybe it will all even out for them.

# 21 NEW JERSEY
S: Again, who knows if they pick here. This could easily be traded. If they stay, it depends on what they did with the tenth pick. If they didn't get a big there, they will now. If they did, they will go for depth on the perimeter. Most likely, they will choose amongst the big guys I've been talking about for the last few picks.

P: Well, I had them taking Gallinari earlier, so I guess they will go for Arthur here. They'd actually be really excited to get both. They'd even consider Arthur at 10.

# 22 ORLANDO
S: Depends on if they want to keep the small lineup or go big again. I think Van Gundy likes small ball if he can get better guards. They will look at Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas Roberts. They supposedly like Lee the best, and I have to agree. He's solid.

P: Courtney Lee

# 23 UTAH
S: Everyone says they need another big guy. Don't they already have Millsap off the bench, plus Jarron Collins, plus Fesenko - another huge prospect? But I guess they can't get any more wings after they did the last few years. I'd go with Chalmers if he's available. They don't have a true backup to Williams.

If he's gone, I suppose I take a look at big men. I guess it wouldn't hurt to add a defender. Now that Toronto's out, they could grab the other Lopez. He can come in and hurt people in the way Boozer and Okur won't.

P: Robin Lopez.

# 24 SEATTLE
S: If they keep this, they will probably go for an international post prospect, or a local project. I'd do the same.

If McGee or Jordan are available, it wouldn't hurt to take a look. They've already tried 4 big man projects in the past few years... fifth time's the charm? I think they need a true off guard who can shoot, not just throwing Durant there, but they have time for that later.

P: JaVale McGee

# 25 HOUSTON
S: They always seem to need power forwards, but that might be a reach here. Besides, they finally have some in Scola and Landry, while Steve Novak and Chuck Hayes are nice specialists. I hear they like Thompson or Ryan Anderson, but are they any better than those guys?

I think they should go for a wing, because there are none after McGrady and Battier. Donte Greene has slipped this far in my predictions because no one needed him before. They'd be delighted to get him.

P: Greene, which could be a steal.

# 26 SAN ANTONIO
S: They need to get younger on the wings. Usually, they'd go for an international big, but they have enough of those. They will look at who is available amongst Lee, Douglas-Roberts, Greene, Chalmers, and Nicolas Batum. If Batum is still there, he would fit in perfectly with what they do. He was talked about as a lottery pick in the past few years, so he might be a steal.

I hear they want Ryan Anderson, but is he any better than Matt Bonner? Or someone they could find for cheap in free agency?

P: Batum. Doesn't this sound exactly like the kind of thing that always happens to them?

# 27 PORTLAND
S: The Hornets gave up because they didn't think they could get a good player here. I thought they could probably land Douglas-Roberts or Lee, but they might not. I did say that if both of those guys were gone, I would trade out of the first round.

Portland is up to something. I don't know what, but they are. They can always go international.

P: Ante Tomic, another project they can stash or trade.

# 28 MEMPHIS
S: If they still have this pick, they should add some depth on the wing, if they took a big guy earlier. Any wing left would help, especially a two guard. Most mocks have them looking at J. J. Hickson, a raw four. Well, it can't hurt to stockpile big prospects.

It's hard to make a prediction without knowing if they will trade Miller. Why not look at college star CDR? He's not Derrick Rose, but he's familiar with fans.

P: Hickson. Everyone likes him here.

# 29 DETROIT
S: I'd look at the trade offers. I would probably do the Billups/Prince for Melo deal. I might trade 'Sheed if I had to.

What do they actually need in the draft? A true center who can score down low, but that's hard to find here. They were probably hoping earlier that people would sour on Hibbert, but that may not happen anymore. McGee, if he drops, is a Detroit native and a risky pick, but not so much at this stage.

If CDR slips this far, he's also a Detroit native who can play right away. As much as they need a big guy, he's local and the best guy on the board by far. He'd give them depth and might ease the burden of any trade.

P: Chris Douglas Roberts

# 30 BOSTON
S: They can always use another big guy, since P.J. will probably hang it up. Not right now, but eventually. That means international. They will likely take the best big guy left, which I think means whomever the other teams in the 20's don't take.

If Lee or Douglas-Roberts fell to them, they might sweep them up. They were scared about Tony Allen because of his poor shooting and handling. If any spot is a concern, it might be two guard.

Also, they could look at Ryan Anderson, who seems projected to go around here. He's a big man shooter in the vein of Steve Novak or Matt Bonner. He could fit.

P: Anderson. He's supposedly guaranteed to go in the first round, so he can't be any lower on the list. Let's hope he's worth more than Scalabrine.

...
...
And that does it for the first round. In the second round, I look for some sleepers who can do different things, like specialists. Anderson will be a target if he doesn't go in the first. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can D it up, even if he can't score. Kyle Weaver can shoot and play both guard spots. Bill Walker was once a top prospect, but got hurt. He could slip into the first if he looks better. Davon Jefferson came out too early, but he was rated high once. Joey Dorsey brings rebounding and energy, if nothing else. Trent Plaisted has decent offense for a big guy. All of these guys could be bench players if they work. I also look at internationals who will take a few years to develop.

The first five picks in the second round are: Minnesota, Seattle, Portland, Minnesota, LA Clippers, and Portland. This leads me to believe that Minnesota and Portland will be busy trading up. Or out.

But I guess we'll really find out tomorrow night.

finals thoughts, and the incredible shrinking beasley

After a day joyously listening to the LA fans display anger and embarrassment, I had to think about just what happened. Not just in that game 6 blowout, but the whole series. I jumped on board the Lakers-can't-lose bandwagon, and I'm glad I was wrong, but I'm surprised to see people getting upset so quickly. This wasn't supposed to be a strong year for the Lakers; they spent all summer trying to satisfy Kobe and were never at full strength for the latter half of the season. They won one of the toughest conferences in recent memory despite new people and a large hole at center. They beat the Spurs and the Jazz without a huge front line. Now the fans want an overhaul?

Chill out, LA: you may look bad now, but if Bynum comes back, there's really not much to worry about. Gasol and Odom had to play bigger then they should in the finals, and Boston was the only team to really expose it. But if they have Bynum, Gasol only now has to worry about the 4, and Odom can go back out to the wing. That's a huge front line, as I've said before, and athletic. They can absolutely dominate with that big front line and Kobe in the back. Their main problems in the finals were rebounding and interior defense; Bynum helps to solve that. Adding him in makes them huge again and completely changes the opposition's defensive plans. I really think it's that simple for them.

Of course, people want an overhaul, and believe that they can get it for nothing (well, they did last year). There's no way the Lakers can or should do that. Odom, however, is going to be a free agent next year, so his contract might be attractive to other teams. I predicted that he would be out, because of that contract, when the Lakers were looking for trades to help Kobe. Maybe now the Lakers will take a quick look at what's available. I'd keep him for next year, unless something great comes up. He faded in this series, but if he gets to play more on the perimeter, and he's not the main focus, he does better. He had to play down low all the time and he was expected to take a lot of shots, and that's not his style. Bynum teamed with Gasol would allow him to take advantage of smaller wings and contribute on the boards as a slashing wing, not a true post player. Trust me, he's much more effective that way.

Bynum's health should be the key issue of the summer for them. Even if he comes back strong, though, they might want to look at a legitimate backup center who can board and mix it up inside (Desanga Diop? someone like that?). Other than that, I don't think they have to go crazy. I would trade Radmanovic or Walton, but I doubt other teams are that interested.

Anyway, it was nice to see Boston's guys get it, even if I can't have much sympathy for the franchise or the city right now. They're a likable bunch. Considering everything that's happened, I guess it's the best outcome. I feel for the Phoenix guys, but I can't think of any team besides the Sixers that I could really root for like the group Boston had.


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Onto draft matters.... June is such a great month for hoops. Imagine if the NFL held their draft a week after the Super Bowl happened.

I'm getting worried by all the Beasley stories. I thought Chicago should just take him and forget about everything else. It was too simple. But now, in light of his height revelation, I am starting to back off a little. It's not that I think he'll be a bust, but if he's not a legitimate four, his value goes way down. Bigger guys are harder to replace, and if his real position is the three, he's just not as attractive, even though I'm fairly convinced he can score 20 a night from day one. It would kinda kill what Chicago needs, and Miami already has Marion and Haslem. They can't go that small with all three. So if he's projected as a small forward - which he was by scouts at the beginning of the season - I don't really know if he should be the first pick. The Bulls know Rose will be a solid true point. If they don't know if Beasley will be a solid true PF, maybe that makes it easier for them.

Of course, he'll have plenty of suitors. Miami could deal the pick to Memphis, to get some players and the fifth pick to get Mayo, but then the Wolves could deal the next pick to other teams who also want Mayo. I'm thinking that if Miami wants Mayo more than Beasley, but knows that Mayo won't slip past three or four, then they'll probably just have to accept Minnesota's offer. The Wolves could give Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man, and they have two early second round picks. It's something. Miami gets the guy they want and some extra pieces for depth. Minnesota has a tough tandem with Jefferson and Beasley, and they have the time to figure out which positions those guys should play.

I don't know why Memphis likes Kevin Love at # 5. They could trade down, package that with all their extra pieces for an established star, or go for someone with more promise like Anthony Randolph. Love and Darko together? That's not going anywhere.

This is going to be a great week. There's so many potential moves. Right now, if I had to do a mock (and I love doing these), here's my idea:

1. Bulls - Derrick Rose
2. Wolves (trade) - Michael Beasley
3. Heat (trade) - O.J. Mayo
4. Sonics - Jarryd Bayless
5. Grizzlies - Anthony Randolph (just think about it, please, or fold the team)
6. Knicks - Russell Westbrook
7. Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Bucks - Joe Alexander
9. Bobcats - Brook Lopez
10. Nets - Kevin Love
11. Pacers - D.J. Augustin
12. Kings - Danilo Gallinari (surprised he drops, but he doesn't fit in NJ and they can play him next to Artest for now)
13. Blazers - DeAndre Jordan (they'll trade this to someone)
14. Warriors - Donte Greene
15. Suns - Brandon Rush (if he's gone, they may make some trades)
16. Sixers - Marreese Speights
17. Raptors - Robin Lopez
18. Wizards - Roy Hibbert
19. Cavs - Kostas Koufos
20. Nuggets - JaVale McGee
21. Nets - Darell Arthur
22. Magic - Courtney Lee
23. Jazz - Nicolas Batum
24. Sonics - Serge Ibaka
25. Rockets - Jason Thompson
26. Spurs - Mario Chalmers
27. Hornets - Chris Douglas-Roberts
28. Grizzlies - J.J. Hickson
29. Pistons - Alex Anjia
30. Celtics - Nathan Jawal

well, thanks for stopping by

Good job, LA.

not so fast, comrades

After 3 games, the finals present some interesting subplots. The Celtics are beating up on the Lakers inside, and Kobe looks pissed. I don't think he wanted to be selfish and take 50 shots a game, but now he might have to. Gasol and Odom are disappearing, and only spurts by Vujacic and Radmanovic shooting have helped them at all. Despite everyone in the entire basketball-watching world knowing that the Lakers would come out fired up for game 3, and get more calls going their way, they really didn't play great until the late going. Boston hung in there despite their big guns having off nights. Now I can see them winning a game in LA, which I highly doubted before the series started. Add that to the first two games, and I'm really wondering about the Lakers' chances.

The Lakers did make some nice moves by attacking more and having Kobe guard Rondo, who doesn't shoot a lot outside, but the Celts can counter this by playing House more (which, um, they should have been doing anyway). Pierce is still mysteriously guarded about his injury, so who knows. But even though the Lakers won last night, I'm very impressed by the Celtics. Of course, maybe the Lakers will put it together. And if Odom and Radman aren't doing anything, they should think about Ariza more. He can play D.


Some league-wide thoughts...

The Donaghy scandal took a sharp turn yesterday. I don't know if he's honest, but I always thought the Kings got a raw deal. Of course, so do lots of people. But still, he's waited to make these allegations 6 years after it happened and several months after he was arrested. To do it now shows he's more interested in saying F you to Stern than he is about being honest. He really wanted to stick the knife in his back.... if he had said this when he was first arrested, I might have believed him more. He needs proof before anything can really happen. But Stern looked extra pissed in his comments. I hope there's nothing going on.

I've been thinking about the draft and the different options Chicago (and thus Miami) have. Chicago doesn't need to start over, just move a few guys. Miami does. So when I heard about the trade rumors, I started thinking. I said the Bulls needed to take Beasley because it's hard to find a good big man, and they built their team up around a post player that they just don't have. Also, it's easy for them to move Gooden and Ty Thomas - really easy - to make room for Beasley, but it's nearly impossible to move Hinrich and Hughes to make room for Rose. So if Miami is really willing to deal Wade to move up, they can both benefit from this.

Here's how it could work - along with the right to switch picks, Miami gives up Wade and Udonis Haslem, who is solid but won't help them rebuild. Chicago sends them Gooden (cap filler), Thomas, and Ben Gordon (signed to a deal first). Now look at the potential lineups - Chciago has Noah, Beasley, Deng, Hinrich, and Wade, with Nocioni, Haslem, and Hughes coming off the bench. Miami has Gooden, Thomas, Marion, Rose, and Gordon, without a real center, but that's a fun team to watch. Plus, they can evaluate and will probably have a high pick next year.

I just keep thinking about styles and how people will mesh. Wade dominates the ball, which is why I'm so curious about the Heat initially wanting Rose. I don't know if they fit together. You need a shooter alongside Wade, which might be why the Heat are looking at O. J. Mayo now. He fits with Wade. This trade would create some nice backcourts: Wade would relieve Hinrich of ball handling pressure, and Hinrich could focus more on D and hitting jumpers, which is more his thing. Rose would have the ball in his hand and be flanked by up-tempo players who could fit a good running scheme (Marion, Thomas, Gordon raining outside jumpers). With Beasley inside, and Wade outside, Deng and Hinrich only have to be supporting players, and I think Chicago would be fantastic. That's a devastating offense if they work together. Miami would give up a lot, but then they'd have an exciting team to watch and only one more guy to find. I like this. I like it a lot. Even if the Heat aren't planning on keeping Marion, maybe they can get the Bulls to throw in Deng or Nocioni.

I was really pushing this upon the news of Doug Collins coming back to the Bulls, as he plays slow, half-cort sets. But that's not happening now. I still like it.

If Chicago still takes Rose anyway, that could set off some other stuff. I don't think they can trade Hinrich easily, but I did suggest in my trade deadline column that they might consider sending him and some big guys to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal. Who knows if JO will be healthy again, but it would solve their problems of lacking a dominant big man and finding a taker for Hinrich. If Indiana can get Eric Gordon in the draft, and pair him with Hinrich, that might work. They can get Thomas to be the new PF, and they also might want to give Ike Diogu more minutes. This is a possibility.

Miami would then go after Mayo, since they're not high on Beasley and O.J. fits well with Wade. They could trade down, and I think Memphis would be smart to offer some pieces. Miami would take Mike Miller and/ or Kyle Lowry any day, if that works, and then hope to get Mayo at number five. Maybe they could send something to Minnesota in hopes that the Wolves do not take Mayo.... maybe they take back Antoine Walker's contract? That might help, if that's possible. I can't calculate it right now, but they might work out some sort of agreement. This would help each team.

I guess we'll just have to see in a few weeks.

Lakers vs. Celtics and the NBA Playoffs

Ahhhh, yes. I remember the first real basketball game I got for Genesis, Electronic Arts' first foyer into sports gaming (I think). They named it after the two classic franchises who had battled so much, even though the year it came out, the finals actually featured Detroit beating Portand. In their defense, that would've sounded so much lamer. Also, the Lakers and Celtics were seen as the great rivals, even though they only met 3 times in the 80's, although they did account for 8 titles and one of them was in the finals every year. In any case, EA wanted to make their debut by paying homage, and it's a nice touch for a maker whose games have really been a part of my life.

That's just one of the 50 million nostalgic stories that are circulating this week. It's my personal favorite aspect of that nostalgia, but I must admit that I'm kinda disappointed. I know I should be happy for the league and excited that ratings will be high and I won't be so mocked for loving basketball. I see everyone jumping on board and that's cool.... but I'm also a little dismayed by how things came to be.

I always hate to see LA and New York get all the attention and have things handed to them at times. Maybe now I should throw Boston in there as well. Yes, I'm still fuming a little over the Gasol trade. I don't hate the Lakers, and I don't hate Kobe (my MVP vote, even if it means nothing, was all for him), but I don't feel like they really deserved that. They should have suffered for the Shaq deal and the subsequent Kwame deal, but then it all magically turned better for them. Being out here, I here from fans that it was just a right of life; that they expected it, and that it was just another good thing to happen to them. Everyone else was furious. Remember this.

As for the Celtics, their trades weren't nearly as one-sided, and they gave up some young guys, but they're still a strange team. They're thrown together oddly, like the '97 Florida Marlins, as a mixture of vets looking for a title with a few key draftees who step up. I like all their guys, actually, but I don't feel like this is a real Celtics team. It could have been any team that had the right pieces and used them, but of course it was the team with the most titles in history. I'd feel better if it was some place tortured, like Cleveland or Indiana.... umm, maybe Philly... just saying.... but no, it's Boston. Again.

So I don't really have any rooting interest. I guess I would root for the Celtics because I like their individual guys, but they're getting awfully spoiled in Boston. I know the Celtics have been terrible for a while, unlike the Pats and Sawx, but they're still the most successful franchise in league history. I don't feel anything for the Lakers for that trade, and also for the fact that I know they're going to be good the next few years - even better, in fact, with Andrew Bynum coming back. I didn't think they could make it this far without him and they did, so what will they do next year?

Who do I like? I think I hate everyone. I'm from Philly, so that's okay.

What is my actual prediction? Let's break this down:

BOS DEF: The Celtics played defense when it counted. They can shut down big guys and point guards, but they struggle with wings. This might be why they didn't dominate early in the playoffs - Atlanta was all young wings, Cleveland survived only on LeBron. They just didn't match up well. Detroit needed a big series from Sheed and didn't get it, and Garnett helped that. Billups was hurt, but Rondo is also doing good. The only guy that really killed Boston was Rip Hamilton, but that was enough.

Well, the Lakers have the best wing in the league, and they don't offer much at point guard, so that doesn't really help the Celts at all. I'm interested to see how Boston matches up down low - Perkins and KG have been great on D, but if the Lakers keep their smaller lineups, one of them is going to have to face Odom or Radmanovic. I think Garnett is versatile enough to do that, but it pulls him away from the basket. Gasol can do that too with his midrange game, so maybe LA will stay out of the paint.

Interestingly, when these teams met this season, the Celts basically let Kobe open a lot outside and dared him to shoot every time. It worked, as he shot a lot, but didn't get others involved, they won both games. But the Spurs just tried to do the same thing, and it didn't work for them. If Ray Allen isn't making shots, I think they have to use Posey. Even if he is, they probably want to make Kobe work a little bit.

The Celts' D is good, but they're in for a tough battle because....

LA O: They're rolling. They can all shoot, and Kobe is dying to prove himself. I think Gasol is a little too outside for Perkins, and Odom can be all over the place. He's my choice as the biggest X factor in this series. He can take advantage of Pierce if he wants to. The Celts will try to be physical, but the Lakers have rolled over the Spurs and Jazz, who have bigger frontlines and usually knock people around.

BOS O / LA DEF: The Celts are good, but if Ray isn't hitting shots, they're in trouble. Garnett needs to step up big here, but it's not his tendency. Pierce can probably go off on anyone, but he'll be matched by Kobe. The Lakers are weak on both ends at the point, so Rondo could have some big games, but he's not a scorer. The Celts should watch when the subs are in. Jordan Farmar is struggling and they could get Eddie House some open looks.

The Lakers will try to minimize the size advantage by playing small and fast and just outscoring the Celtics. Kobe, determined more than ever, might have some good looks on Pierce, but probably he'll stick Allen and just watch his shots. The Celts might try to abuse them down low with depth, by bringing in P. J. Brown, Leon Powe and Big Baby, while the Lakers only have Turiaf on their bench. If Odom, Gasol, or Turiaf gets in foul trouble, that could help the Celts big time.

Bottom line, the Lakers have more weapons and match up well. This is a nice matchup in that one team relying strongly on offense will go against one relying on D. I just don't think Boston's strengths match with the Lakers' weaknesses. The Lakers scored a ton against the Spurs, who have been great defensively for a long time. The Celtics can't match that firepower if the games are high-scoring. If Ray catches fire and Garnett plays like he should, the Celtics could pull it out. I just don't see it.

Lakers in 6.