I always love doing mock drafts, and I haven't paid this much attention to one since... any? It seems like I knew the top 10 since January, now that we've got college people staying and all. I had a whole list planned out for month, before the lottery went crazy ways, into the great Northwest.
Now, I'm just stumped. It's impossible to do a mock draft, despite knowing most fo the players and all the team needs. Why? Trades. There are just way too many possibilites before tonight. Who does what? Which teams pull it off? Boston, Chicago, Memphis, and Phoenix could all go different ways. So could Minnesota or Philly. Or even Charlotte. Anyone could be making deals and this it's impossible to make a complete first round. The teams picking could all switch around so easily.
Here's my morning-of take, which will undoubtedly be thrown askew by all the moves, or just from me being horribly wrong.
I'm watching you, Blazers and Sixers. Please do the right thing for once (And if that's taking Al Thornton and relaxing, I won't argue. For now.)
1 PORTLAND
Greg Oden7-0 C, Ohio State
2 SEATTLE
Kevin Durant6-10 SF, Texas
3 ATLANTA
Al Horford6-10 PF, Florida
4 MEMPHIS
Joakim Noah7-0 PF, Florida
5 BOSTON (will trade this one away)
Mike Conley6-1 PG, Ohio State
6 MILWAUKEE
Jeff Green6-10 SF, Georgetown
7 MINNESOTA (possibly traded)
Brandan Wright6-10 PF, North Carolina
8 CHARLOTTE
Corey Brewer6-8 SG, Florida
9 CHICAGO (possibly traded)
Yi Jianlian7-0 PF, China
10 SACRAMENTO
Spencer Hawes7-1 C, Washington
11 ATLANTA
Acie Law6-4 PG, Texas A&M
12 PHILADELPHIA (if they can't move up)
Al Thornton6-7 SF, Florida State
13 NEW ORLEANS
Nick Young6-7 SG, USC
14 LA CLIPPERS
Julian Wright6-9 SF, Kansas
15 DETROIT
Rodney Stuckey6-5 SG, Eastern Wash.
16 WASHINGTON
Jason Smith7-0 PF, Colorado State
17 NEW JERSEY
Josh McRoberts6-10 PF, Duke
18 GOLDEN STATE (likely traded)
Thaddeus Young6-8 SF, Georgia Tech
19 LA LAKERS
Gabe Pruitt6-4 PG, USC
20 MIAMI
Javaris Crittenton6-5 PG, Georgia Tech
21 PHILADELPHIA
Sean Williams6-10 C, Boston College
22 CHARLOTTE
Tiago Splitter7-0 PF, Brazil
23 NEW YORK
Daequan Cook6-6 SG, Ohio State
24 PHOENIX (possibly traded)
Marco Belinelli6-6 SG, Italy
25 UTAH
Arron Afflalo6-5 SG, UCLA
26 HOUSTON
Glen Davis6-9 PF, LSU
27 DETROIT
Derrick Byars6-7 SF, Vanderbilt
28 SAN ANTONIO
Rudy Fernandez6-6 SG, Spain
29 PHOENIX (possibly traded)
Petteri Koponen6-4 PG, Finland
30 PHILADELPHIA
Marc Gasol7-0 C, Spain
HONORABLE MENTION: Don't feel bad, Marcus Williams, Morris Almond, and Alando Tucker. Those last few teams need big men and all the wings in this draft are being pushed down. You'll be steals in the second round.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
trade talk heats up
Big four-teamer rumored. Can this happen? Let's see....
Boston Celtics
Incoming Players
Jermaine O'Neal Salary: $18,084,000 Years Remaining
Outgoing Players: Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Ryan Gomes, Wally Szczerbiak
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Troy Hudson Salary: $5,603,000 Years Remaining: 4, Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3
Outgoing Players: Andrew Bynum, Brian Cook, Kwame Brown, Lamar Odom
Indiana Pacers get BOSTON'S # 5 pick
Incoming Players
Gerald Green Salary: $1,347,000 Years Remaining: 2, Kwame Brown Salary: $8,287,500 Years Remaining: 2, Theo Ratliff Salary: $11,666,666 Years Remaining: 2, Ryan Gomes Salary: $664,209 Years Remaining: 2,
Outgoing Players: Jermaine O'Neal
Minnesota Timberwolves get LA's # 19 PICK
Incoming Players
Andrew Bynum Salary: $2,030,280 Years Remaining: 2, Brian Cook Salary: $1,817,141 Years Remaining: 3, Lamar Odom Salary: $12,348,596 Years Remaining: 3, Wally Szczerbiak Salary: $11,775,000 Years Remaining: 3,
Outgoing Players: Troy Hudson, Kevin Garnett
Well, that’s not entirely fair to the Pacers or Wolves. One of them is getting screwed either way in this deal. And now, according to all sources, talks are over for the mega-deal.
But if the Lakers and Minnesota are still talking, it’s not as impossible as you think. Let’s see here…
Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players
Sasha Vujacic Salary: $973,920 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.3 REB: 1.5 AST: 0.9 PER: 11.67
Bernard Robinson Salary: $1,000,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.0 REB: 1.5 AST: 0.6 PER: 7.59
Hassan Adams Salary: $412,718 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.9 REB: 1.3 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.77
Andrew Bynum Salary: $2,030,280 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 7.8 REB: 5.9 AST: 1.1 PER: 15.44
Mile Ilic Salary: $800,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 0.0 REB: 0.2 AST: 0.0 PER: -48.72
Vladimir Radmanovic Salary: $5,215,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 6.6 REB: 3.3 AST: 1.2 PER: 11.02
Josh Boone Salary: $1,053,960 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.2 REB: 2.9 AST: 0.2 PER: 14.62
Richard Jefferson Salary: $11,200,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 16.3 REB: 4.4 AST: 2.7 PER: 13.88
Clifford Robinson Salary: $1,600,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.1 REB: 2.4 AST: 1.0 PER: 5.96
Kwame Brown Salary: $8,287,500 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 8.4 REB: 6.0 AST: 1.8 PER: 13.79
Maurice Evans Salary: $1,620,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 8.4 REB: 2.9 AST: 1.0 PER: 12.14
Outgoing Players: Marko Jaric, Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, Troy Hudson, Kevin Garnett
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Brian Cook Salary: $1,817,141 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 6.9 REB: 3.3 AST: 1.0 PER: 14.83
Lamar Odom Salary: $12,348,596 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 15.9 REB: 9.8 AST: 4.8 PER: 16.20
Trenton Hassell Salary: $4,350,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 6.7 REB: 3.2 AST: 2.7 PER: 9.71
Outgoing Players: Bernard Robinson, Hassan Adams, Mile Ilic, Josh Boone, Richard Jefferson, Clifford Robinson
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Marko Jaric Salary: $5,525,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 5.3 REB: 2.6 AST: 2.1 PER: 9.57
Mark Blount Salary: $7,288,165 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 12.3 REB: 6.2 AST: 0.8 PER: 12.73
Troy Hudson Salary: $5,603,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 5.9 REB: 1.4 AST: 2.1 PER: 10.74
Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 22.4 REB: 12.8 AST: 4.1 PER: 24.20
Outgoing Players: Sasha Vujacic, Brian Cook, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Vladimir Radmanovic, Kwame Brown, Maurice Evans
Everyone has been saying that this package has no value for Minnesota. And yeah, Odom and Kwame don’t. But they have value outside of themselves. See, Kwame’s contract is up soon. In this weird NBA landscape of salary cap and space concerns and luxury taxes and whatnot, that makes him a valuable asset. They can dump some of their bad contracts on LA in exchange for a good one. This is an addition-by-subtraction trade, if you will. And seeing as to how many bad people they have, they’d better start getting rid of them.
And as far as Odom goes, it’s true that Minnesota doesn’t want him. He wants no part of them either. But I can guarantee other teams (Eastern teams) would be willing to take a crack at him. He can play the four in the East and not be such a liability. Teams like the Sixers, Knicks, and Nets, who have gaping holes at forward, would definitely take a long look at him. The Wolves won’t get back a star, very likely, but they’ll be able to get good contracts, draft picks, or young guys. And thus, Odom has a little value.
Really, it’s not so much that the Lakers have to convince Minnesota that Odom would be good for them. They both know that’s not true. They need to convince Minnesota that other teams would want him. Maybe they do get a third team involved from the East. Or maybe Minnesota just picks him up and then deals him later. They’ve got options. Then they have Foye and Bynum to build around, with their high pick this year, maybe a mid pick they get in that trade, and the Lakers’ pick. It’s not great, but it’s a start. And they use this trade to dump all their horrible, awful, overpriced guys. They need to start over, and they know KG is going to leave next year for nothing. So why not start now and get something in return?
I keep bringing up the Nets in both the KG and Marion deals as a potential partner because they’ve been looking for a four man ever since Kenyon Martin left. Odom is a New Yorker and would fit in their uptempo system. Since they didn’t trade Kidd or Carter, they’re obviously still interesting in competing and spending cash. They’d take a flier on Odom. His best year was in Miami, playing the East and running in an uptempo system. Philly has picks, and Jersey would love to try it.
Hell, they might even give up Richard Jefferson. It’s easier to pick up wings, especially in this draft, where there are a TON (but not so many big guys). The Nets getting a Nick Young or Thaddeus Young or Derrick Byars or Rodney Stuckey at 16 to help replace Jefferson seems a lot more palatable to me than trying to pick up a decent four man at that spot. They have to roll the dice, because Kidd is almost done and they can’t really compete with their current roster. Just a few more tweaks, though, and they’re back in it. Did I mention the East (particularly their division) sucks? Rod Thorn, paging Mr. Thorn.
By the way, the way this trade is laid out, for cap reasons, the Lakers trade both Cook and Radmanovic, which I haven’t projected before, but the Wolves don’t really need or want the Radman, so they’ll figure out a follow up trade (you can do this after a couple months, or also by waiving people) to get him back and give the Wolves more relief. Maybe they draft a guy in the second round on behalf of the Wolves, sign him, and then trade him. In any case, Minnesota picks up a lot of guys (and will probably waive half of them) whose contracts are up soon,
UPDATE: Yeah, umm, so an hour after I posted this, word got out that the Lakers-Wolves talks had broken down. Now, apparently, it’s back to Phoenix again, with the Celtics throwing themselves in the ring…. Of course, Marion isn’t playing there either. Once again, I think they could convince the Nets or Sixers to get involved in this. Marion might like them better than Boston, and he’s more reliable than Lamar Odom, who has the key problem Minnesota had with the deal. But then, who does Boston get?
Phoenix gets KG. Minnesota gets Boston’s # 5 pick, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair (ironic with his Marbury connections), Atlanta’s pick next year from Phoenix, and all those soon-to-be expiring guys from Jersey. Jersey gets Marion. Boston gets… Richard Jefferson? Maybe they could convince the Nets to give up Nenad Kristic instead. That would be a decent move, because he’s shown more than a project like Brandan Wright or Yi. But would they? And if not, is Jefferson worth giving up the fifth pick? When they could get Corey Brewer there or even later?
If the Sixers or Knicks are involved, it’s still tough. The Sixers can only give up draft picks, really, and they aren’t as high. The Knicks could give you a bunch of overpriced and only decent guys, unless the C’s really think Channing Frye is worth it. I doubt it.
So this trade is looking rough, too, because the Celtics must find a new destination for Marion, and the teams most interested can’t offer much.
And now those old Indiana-Lakers talks are back up. Once again, I could see these teams (Knicks, Sixers, Nets) getting involved because they’d take Odom. And that kills the chances of Marion going to any of those places (these teams have more to offer the Pacers than the Celtics).
Let’s look at who might be interested in Marion, since the Celtics appear to be the only people having problems with this deal. The problem is that the Celtics need to find someone that 1. is interested, 2. has the right people, and 3. can convince Marion to play there. That’s a lot to demand. Who has the best shot?
ATLANTA – Marvin Williams, # 11 pick. Not terrible, but would he play there?
CLEVELAND – Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, whatever. Meh. Cavs would certainly enjoy this, especially if they could convince C’s to throw in Delonte West, or work out some sort of sign and trade with Anderson Varejao. But this is not so good for Boston.
CHICAGO – Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Selfosha, # 9. Not bad, but do the Bulls want to do it?
DALLAS – Josh Howard, Devin Harris, Maurice Ager. Meh. Need a big guy or decent pick.
GOLDEN STATE – Jason Richardson, Al Harrington, Patrick O’Bryant, # 18. Not bad, but the Warriors are more interested in the fifth pick. Still, this might be worth looking into. It’s more quantity than quality, but it’s something.
NEW YORK – Channing Frye or David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Quentin Richardson, # 21. Even if they could get Lee and Balkman, Isiah’s only claims to fame, that’s not much. These two old rivals both just get really mediocre… they’ll make the playoffs, probably, but have no chance of doing anything.
NEW JERSEY – Nenad Kristic (maybe) OR Richard Jefferson, # 16, expiring contracts. Kristic and others would help. Jefferson, probably not. He’s a decent addition to Pierce, but the other teams can all do better. If the C’s throw in Gerald Green and Ryan Gomes, they’d probably be able to wing Kristic. Maybe…. the Nets would need to be able to resign Mikki Moore to feel better.
PORTLAND – Zach Randolph, spare parts. Interesting… don’t you think Portland kind of owes Boston after fleecing them for Brandon Roy last year? If the Blazers take Oden, wouldn’t this be a decent follow up move? Marion may or may not like this… he’d be the best player for now, but he’s got to share the limelight with two likable young guys. In Portland. Hmmm…
SACRAMENTO – Ron Artest, # 9 (maybe), etc. I already discussed Marion for Artest earlier, but that was just between the Suns and Kings. Boston may or may not consider this based on the obvious Artest worries. And does either guy like the new digs?
SEATTLE – Rashard Lewis (sign and trade), Chris Wilcox. The Sonics would be fun to watch, but Marion and Lewis have to be sold on new teams. I’m not convinced. And isn’t Lewis just a slightly better version of Wally, or someone they could get at number 5?
That’s about it. I think he has to go to one of those teams. Others don’t have enough or won’t be able to please him. Utah, Charlotte, Memphis, and Milwaukee have some pieces, but I don’t think he wants any part of those teams. San Antonio, Miami, Orlando, Houston, and the Clippers would be nice, but they have nothing to offer.
SECOND UPDATE: Okay, now the Suns ARE apparently willing to give up Stoudemire for Garnett. But they're not doing it straight up, they're making another team get involved. I guess they feel bad sending Amare to the lakes, so they'd like to rerout him somehwere nice.
And now that place is....
ATLANTA????
Wow, the Hawks, for all their utter failures, could have this fall in their lap. Apparently, Minnesota will let them take Stoudemire in the deal for the 3 and 11 picks. Isn't he worth more than that? Whatever, they have loads of cap space, so Minnesota can take Horford, another good player at 11, and get rid of some bad contracts, conceivably. That's fair. That's the best deal they've had yet for KG. And I think it happens if the Suns give in, because, if Minnesota likes it, I'm sure Atlanta is estatic. Billy Knight is crying somewhere on his knees, like Tim Robbins in Shawshank.
One interesting quirk here: I'm sure the Suns might include their pick they have from Atlanta next year in the deal. It's one of their best chips. But if Atlanta is now involved in the deal, and they get Amare, they'll be much better. Playoff material, very possibly. So that pick wouldn't be as nice... thus, they're making a deal in which the deal itself devalues one of its own assets... strange.
Maybe they hope McHale doesn't notice the irony there.
Let's see how the Hawks and their big cap space can help the Suns and Wolves get this done. I think they might even trade one of their top youngsters, they're so happy Amare is here... that might convince the Wolves to not take the 11 pick, so they can still get a point guard liek Acie Law:
Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players
Speedy Claxton Salary: $6,854,546 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 5.3 REB: 1.9 AST: 4.4 PER: 7.37
Lorenzen Wright Salary: $3,250,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.6 REB: 3.2 AST: 0.6 PER: 6.65
Marvin Williams Salary: $4,174,800 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 13.1 REB: 5.3 AST: 1.9 PER: 12.26
Solomon Jones Salary: $675,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 3.3 REB: 2.3 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.22
Tyronn Lue Salary: $3,500,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 11.4 REB: 1.9 AST: 3.6 PER: 14.16
Josh Childress Salary: $2,863,920 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 13.0 REB: 6.2 AST: 2.3 PER: 16.24
Shelden Williams Salary: $2,952,840 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 5.5 REB: 5.4 AST: 0.5 PER: 12.39
Kurt Thomas Salary: $7,821,482 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.6 REB: 5.7 AST: 0.4 PER: 11.37
Outgoing Players: Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, Kevin Garnett
Phoenix Suns
Incoming Players
Salim Stoudamire Salary: $729,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 7.7 REB: 1.2 AST: 1.0 PER: 11.40
Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 22.4 REB: 12.8 AST: 4.1 PER: 24.20
Outgoing Players: Marcus Banks, Amare Stoudemire, Kurt Thomas
Atlanta Hawks
Incoming Players
Marcus Banks Salary: $3,600,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 4.9 REB: 0.8 AST: 1.3 PER: 11.41
Amare Stoudemire Salary: $12,455,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 20.4 REB: 9.6 AST: 1.0 PER: 23.15
Mark Blount Salary: $7,288,165 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 12.3 REB: 6.2 AST: 0.8 PER: 12.73
Trenton Hassell Salary: $4,350,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 6.7 REB: 3.2 AST: 2.7 PER: 9.71
PICKS: Minnesota gets # 3, 22, and Atlanta's first next year
Outgoing Players: Salim Stoudamire, Speedy Claxton, Lorenzen Wright, Marvin Williams, Solomon Jones, Tyronn Lue, Josh Childress, Shelden Williams
There. That could work. Minnesota at least gets rid of Blount and Hassell, gets soem nice young guys, and guys that will be up in 2 years. Claxton is overpriced, but they could use a veteran backup to Foye. If they could find takers for Troy Hudson and Marko Jaric, they'd be in good shape.
But does any of this happen? Do the Suns really give up Amare? Do the Wolves allow a trade to happen where Stoudemire for Garnett is the main part and yet they don't get either? Are the Hawks stupid enough to turn even this down?
I guess we'll find out Thursday.
Boston Celtics
Incoming Players
Jermaine O'Neal Salary: $18,084,000 Years Remaining
Outgoing Players: Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Ryan Gomes, Wally Szczerbiak
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Troy Hudson Salary: $5,603,000 Years Remaining: 4, Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3
Outgoing Players: Andrew Bynum, Brian Cook, Kwame Brown, Lamar Odom
Indiana Pacers get BOSTON'S # 5 pick
Incoming Players
Gerald Green Salary: $1,347,000 Years Remaining: 2, Kwame Brown Salary: $8,287,500 Years Remaining: 2, Theo Ratliff Salary: $11,666,666 Years Remaining: 2, Ryan Gomes Salary: $664,209 Years Remaining: 2,
Outgoing Players: Jermaine O'Neal
Minnesota Timberwolves get LA's # 19 PICK
Incoming Players
Andrew Bynum Salary: $2,030,280 Years Remaining: 2, Brian Cook Salary: $1,817,141 Years Remaining: 3, Lamar Odom Salary: $12,348,596 Years Remaining: 3, Wally Szczerbiak Salary: $11,775,000 Years Remaining: 3,
Outgoing Players: Troy Hudson, Kevin Garnett
Well, that’s not entirely fair to the Pacers or Wolves. One of them is getting screwed either way in this deal. And now, according to all sources, talks are over for the mega-deal.
But if the Lakers and Minnesota are still talking, it’s not as impossible as you think. Let’s see here…
Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players
Sasha Vujacic Salary: $973,920 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.3 REB: 1.5 AST: 0.9 PER: 11.67
Bernard Robinson Salary: $1,000,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.0 REB: 1.5 AST: 0.6 PER: 7.59
Hassan Adams Salary: $412,718 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.9 REB: 1.3 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.77
Andrew Bynum Salary: $2,030,280 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 7.8 REB: 5.9 AST: 1.1 PER: 15.44
Mile Ilic Salary: $800,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 0.0 REB: 0.2 AST: 0.0 PER: -48.72
Vladimir Radmanovic Salary: $5,215,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 6.6 REB: 3.3 AST: 1.2 PER: 11.02
Josh Boone Salary: $1,053,960 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.2 REB: 2.9 AST: 0.2 PER: 14.62
Richard Jefferson Salary: $11,200,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 16.3 REB: 4.4 AST: 2.7 PER: 13.88
Clifford Robinson Salary: $1,600,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.1 REB: 2.4 AST: 1.0 PER: 5.96
Kwame Brown Salary: $8,287,500 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 8.4 REB: 6.0 AST: 1.8 PER: 13.79
Maurice Evans Salary: $1,620,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 8.4 REB: 2.9 AST: 1.0 PER: 12.14
Outgoing Players: Marko Jaric, Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, Troy Hudson, Kevin Garnett
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Brian Cook Salary: $1,817,141 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 6.9 REB: 3.3 AST: 1.0 PER: 14.83
Lamar Odom Salary: $12,348,596 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 15.9 REB: 9.8 AST: 4.8 PER: 16.20
Trenton Hassell Salary: $4,350,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 6.7 REB: 3.2 AST: 2.7 PER: 9.71
Outgoing Players: Bernard Robinson, Hassan Adams, Mile Ilic, Josh Boone, Richard Jefferson, Clifford Robinson
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Marko Jaric Salary: $5,525,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 5.3 REB: 2.6 AST: 2.1 PER: 9.57
Mark Blount Salary: $7,288,165 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 12.3 REB: 6.2 AST: 0.8 PER: 12.73
Troy Hudson Salary: $5,603,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 5.9 REB: 1.4 AST: 2.1 PER: 10.74
Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 22.4 REB: 12.8 AST: 4.1 PER: 24.20
Outgoing Players: Sasha Vujacic, Brian Cook, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Vladimir Radmanovic, Kwame Brown, Maurice Evans
Everyone has been saying that this package has no value for Minnesota. And yeah, Odom and Kwame don’t. But they have value outside of themselves. See, Kwame’s contract is up soon. In this weird NBA landscape of salary cap and space concerns and luxury taxes and whatnot, that makes him a valuable asset. They can dump some of their bad contracts on LA in exchange for a good one. This is an addition-by-subtraction trade, if you will. And seeing as to how many bad people they have, they’d better start getting rid of them.
And as far as Odom goes, it’s true that Minnesota doesn’t want him. He wants no part of them either. But I can guarantee other teams (Eastern teams) would be willing to take a crack at him. He can play the four in the East and not be such a liability. Teams like the Sixers, Knicks, and Nets, who have gaping holes at forward, would definitely take a long look at him. The Wolves won’t get back a star, very likely, but they’ll be able to get good contracts, draft picks, or young guys. And thus, Odom has a little value.
Really, it’s not so much that the Lakers have to convince Minnesota that Odom would be good for them. They both know that’s not true. They need to convince Minnesota that other teams would want him. Maybe they do get a third team involved from the East. Or maybe Minnesota just picks him up and then deals him later. They’ve got options. Then they have Foye and Bynum to build around, with their high pick this year, maybe a mid pick they get in that trade, and the Lakers’ pick. It’s not great, but it’s a start. And they use this trade to dump all their horrible, awful, overpriced guys. They need to start over, and they know KG is going to leave next year for nothing. So why not start now and get something in return?
I keep bringing up the Nets in both the KG and Marion deals as a potential partner because they’ve been looking for a four man ever since Kenyon Martin left. Odom is a New Yorker and would fit in their uptempo system. Since they didn’t trade Kidd or Carter, they’re obviously still interesting in competing and spending cash. They’d take a flier on Odom. His best year was in Miami, playing the East and running in an uptempo system. Philly has picks, and Jersey would love to try it.
Hell, they might even give up Richard Jefferson. It’s easier to pick up wings, especially in this draft, where there are a TON (but not so many big guys). The Nets getting a Nick Young or Thaddeus Young or Derrick Byars or Rodney Stuckey at 16 to help replace Jefferson seems a lot more palatable to me than trying to pick up a decent four man at that spot. They have to roll the dice, because Kidd is almost done and they can’t really compete with their current roster. Just a few more tweaks, though, and they’re back in it. Did I mention the East (particularly their division) sucks? Rod Thorn, paging Mr. Thorn.
By the way, the way this trade is laid out, for cap reasons, the Lakers trade both Cook and Radmanovic, which I haven’t projected before, but the Wolves don’t really need or want the Radman, so they’ll figure out a follow up trade (you can do this after a couple months, or also by waiving people) to get him back and give the Wolves more relief. Maybe they draft a guy in the second round on behalf of the Wolves, sign him, and then trade him. In any case, Minnesota picks up a lot of guys (and will probably waive half of them) whose contracts are up soon,
UPDATE: Yeah, umm, so an hour after I posted this, word got out that the Lakers-Wolves talks had broken down. Now, apparently, it’s back to Phoenix again, with the Celtics throwing themselves in the ring…. Of course, Marion isn’t playing there either. Once again, I think they could convince the Nets or Sixers to get involved in this. Marion might like them better than Boston, and he’s more reliable than Lamar Odom, who has the key problem Minnesota had with the deal. But then, who does Boston get?
Phoenix gets KG. Minnesota gets Boston’s # 5 pick, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair (ironic with his Marbury connections), Atlanta’s pick next year from Phoenix, and all those soon-to-be expiring guys from Jersey. Jersey gets Marion. Boston gets… Richard Jefferson? Maybe they could convince the Nets to give up Nenad Kristic instead. That would be a decent move, because he’s shown more than a project like Brandan Wright or Yi. But would they? And if not, is Jefferson worth giving up the fifth pick? When they could get Corey Brewer there or even later?
If the Sixers or Knicks are involved, it’s still tough. The Sixers can only give up draft picks, really, and they aren’t as high. The Knicks could give you a bunch of overpriced and only decent guys, unless the C’s really think Channing Frye is worth it. I doubt it.
So this trade is looking rough, too, because the Celtics must find a new destination for Marion, and the teams most interested can’t offer much.
And now those old Indiana-Lakers talks are back up. Once again, I could see these teams (Knicks, Sixers, Nets) getting involved because they’d take Odom. And that kills the chances of Marion going to any of those places (these teams have more to offer the Pacers than the Celtics).
Let’s look at who might be interested in Marion, since the Celtics appear to be the only people having problems with this deal. The problem is that the Celtics need to find someone that 1. is interested, 2. has the right people, and 3. can convince Marion to play there. That’s a lot to demand. Who has the best shot?
ATLANTA – Marvin Williams, # 11 pick. Not terrible, but would he play there?
CLEVELAND – Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, whatever. Meh. Cavs would certainly enjoy this, especially if they could convince C’s to throw in Delonte West, or work out some sort of sign and trade with Anderson Varejao. But this is not so good for Boston.
CHICAGO – Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Selfosha, # 9. Not bad, but do the Bulls want to do it?
DALLAS – Josh Howard, Devin Harris, Maurice Ager. Meh. Need a big guy or decent pick.
GOLDEN STATE – Jason Richardson, Al Harrington, Patrick O’Bryant, # 18. Not bad, but the Warriors are more interested in the fifth pick. Still, this might be worth looking into. It’s more quantity than quality, but it’s something.
NEW YORK – Channing Frye or David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Quentin Richardson, # 21. Even if they could get Lee and Balkman, Isiah’s only claims to fame, that’s not much. These two old rivals both just get really mediocre… they’ll make the playoffs, probably, but have no chance of doing anything.
NEW JERSEY – Nenad Kristic (maybe) OR Richard Jefferson, # 16, expiring contracts. Kristic and others would help. Jefferson, probably not. He’s a decent addition to Pierce, but the other teams can all do better. If the C’s throw in Gerald Green and Ryan Gomes, they’d probably be able to wing Kristic. Maybe…. the Nets would need to be able to resign Mikki Moore to feel better.
PORTLAND – Zach Randolph, spare parts. Interesting… don’t you think Portland kind of owes Boston after fleecing them for Brandon Roy last year? If the Blazers take Oden, wouldn’t this be a decent follow up move? Marion may or may not like this… he’d be the best player for now, but he’s got to share the limelight with two likable young guys. In Portland. Hmmm…
SACRAMENTO – Ron Artest, # 9 (maybe), etc. I already discussed Marion for Artest earlier, but that was just between the Suns and Kings. Boston may or may not consider this based on the obvious Artest worries. And does either guy like the new digs?
SEATTLE – Rashard Lewis (sign and trade), Chris Wilcox. The Sonics would be fun to watch, but Marion and Lewis have to be sold on new teams. I’m not convinced. And isn’t Lewis just a slightly better version of Wally, or someone they could get at number 5?
That’s about it. I think he has to go to one of those teams. Others don’t have enough or won’t be able to please him. Utah, Charlotte, Memphis, and Milwaukee have some pieces, but I don’t think he wants any part of those teams. San Antonio, Miami, Orlando, Houston, and the Clippers would be nice, but they have nothing to offer.
SECOND UPDATE: Okay, now the Suns ARE apparently willing to give up Stoudemire for Garnett. But they're not doing it straight up, they're making another team get involved. I guess they feel bad sending Amare to the lakes, so they'd like to rerout him somehwere nice.
And now that place is....
ATLANTA????
Wow, the Hawks, for all their utter failures, could have this fall in their lap. Apparently, Minnesota will let them take Stoudemire in the deal for the 3 and 11 picks. Isn't he worth more than that? Whatever, they have loads of cap space, so Minnesota can take Horford, another good player at 11, and get rid of some bad contracts, conceivably. That's fair. That's the best deal they've had yet for KG. And I think it happens if the Suns give in, because, if Minnesota likes it, I'm sure Atlanta is estatic. Billy Knight is crying somewhere on his knees, like Tim Robbins in Shawshank.
One interesting quirk here: I'm sure the Suns might include their pick they have from Atlanta next year in the deal. It's one of their best chips. But if Atlanta is now involved in the deal, and they get Amare, they'll be much better. Playoff material, very possibly. So that pick wouldn't be as nice... thus, they're making a deal in which the deal itself devalues one of its own assets... strange.
Maybe they hope McHale doesn't notice the irony there.
Let's see how the Hawks and their big cap space can help the Suns and Wolves get this done. I think they might even trade one of their top youngsters, they're so happy Amare is here... that might convince the Wolves to not take the 11 pick, so they can still get a point guard liek Acie Law:
Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players
Speedy Claxton Salary: $6,854,546 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 5.3 REB: 1.9 AST: 4.4 PER: 7.37
Lorenzen Wright Salary: $3,250,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.6 REB: 3.2 AST: 0.6 PER: 6.65
Marvin Williams Salary: $4,174,800 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 13.1 REB: 5.3 AST: 1.9 PER: 12.26
Solomon Jones Salary: $675,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 3.3 REB: 2.3 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.22
Tyronn Lue Salary: $3,500,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 11.4 REB: 1.9 AST: 3.6 PER: 14.16
Josh Childress Salary: $2,863,920 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 13.0 REB: 6.2 AST: 2.3 PER: 16.24
Shelden Williams Salary: $2,952,840 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 5.5 REB: 5.4 AST: 0.5 PER: 12.39
Kurt Thomas Salary: $7,821,482 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.6 REB: 5.7 AST: 0.4 PER: 11.37
Outgoing Players: Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, Kevin Garnett
Phoenix Suns
Incoming Players
Salim Stoudamire Salary: $729,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 7.7 REB: 1.2 AST: 1.0 PER: 11.40
Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 22.4 REB: 12.8 AST: 4.1 PER: 24.20
Outgoing Players: Marcus Banks, Amare Stoudemire, Kurt Thomas
Atlanta Hawks
Incoming Players
Marcus Banks Salary: $3,600,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 4.9 REB: 0.8 AST: 1.3 PER: 11.41
Amare Stoudemire Salary: $12,455,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 20.4 REB: 9.6 AST: 1.0 PER: 23.15
Mark Blount Salary: $7,288,165 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 12.3 REB: 6.2 AST: 0.8 PER: 12.73
Trenton Hassell Salary: $4,350,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 6.7 REB: 3.2 AST: 2.7 PER: 9.71
PICKS: Minnesota gets # 3, 22, and Atlanta's first next year
Outgoing Players: Salim Stoudamire, Speedy Claxton, Lorenzen Wright, Marvin Williams, Solomon Jones, Tyronn Lue, Josh Childress, Shelden Williams
There. That could work. Minnesota at least gets rid of Blount and Hassell, gets soem nice young guys, and guys that will be up in 2 years. Claxton is overpriced, but they could use a veteran backup to Foye. If they could find takers for Troy Hudson and Marko Jaric, they'd be in good shape.
But does any of this happen? Do the Suns really give up Amare? Do the Wolves allow a trade to happen where Stoudemire for Garnett is the main part and yet they don't get either? Are the Hawks stupid enough to turn even this down?
I guess we'll find out Thursday.
Monday, June 25, 2007
I've been thinking over the Oden vs. Durant debate and I just keep thinking one thing:
Why couldn't the top two picks be reversed?
See, Portland went into this draft on an upswing. They were merely hoping to land a decent pick so they could get a small forward to complete their lineup, be it Jeff Green or Julian Wright. When they beat the odds and got the top pick, everything changed. They had to rethink the whole process.
Seattle was just begging for a decent pick anywhere. They needed excitement and a fresh start. Landing in the top two would help their situation immensely. They got it, and cheered... but for how long?
Here's what I hate: Portland would have been just fine with Durant. They would have been ELATED for number two. They might have been just fine with one of those other guys. Seattle, though, wanted Oden badly. They already have a great perimeter set up; the only thing that's kept them from the playoffs is the interior. They've drafted lots of projects in the past few years, but so far, none have panned out. If they landed Oden, it might be enough to keep them in Seattle. They could then probably convince Rashard Lewis to stay, and they'd be set. But Durant, as much excitement as he brings, is not as much of a savior. They'll let Lewis go and plug him in at the three, and it won't change anything for now. I think he's got more potential than Lewis, but he doesn't solve all their problems. Oden might.
Before the lottery, Simmons said that Seattle had the most karma out of all the lottery. I can agree with that. Seattle has always been a great basketball city with great, underrated fans. What happened to them in the past few years is terrible. They've had a bad ownership team, a bad front office, overwhelmed coaches, and a bad stadium lease. These people don't deserve that. For 30 years, they were passionate about the Sonics. Let them keep that.
I mean, how long has it been since Seattle had a decent center? Have they ever? They made it to the finals and won a lot of games in the 90's with scraps and Shawn Kemp owning at the four spot. Did they even have an all star before then? Jack Sikma? I don't know. Oden would be the first in a long, long time.
Even Simmons admitted that he'd rather have Durant if he was picking for Portland. He sugested they trade down with the Sonics and pick up Lewis for their troubles. That would be a sweet lineup, but it's too many people to please. I think if they simply take Durant and pick up future picks (and either Robert Swift or Mohammed Sene) from Seattle, it simplifies things.
Think about it:
Portland has been trying to dump Zach Randolph, admittedly a bad influence, and pick up a good three. But if they get a draft pick or someone like Antawn Jamison for him, does it make them better? They like LaMarcus Aldridge, but they don't know yet if he can be that low post scorer, or what position he fits at. Why not wait a year before deciding on Randolph to see how it all works? Why make these big decisions now?
If they dump him for a non-scorer at small forward, then find out that Oden and Aldridge don't have any offense yet, they're screwed. Whereas, if they take Durant, and pick up some of those young centers from Seattle, they'll be covered. They'll have three great players at the 2-3-4 spots, lots of young talent down low, and safer bets. Simmons' plan makes them too small and you can bet they'd complain about shots. But this plan gives them a balanced, exciting lineup. They can see if Swift, Alrdridge, or Sene works at the center spot, AND they still have Joel Pryzbilla, who can at least block shots and rebound, if these guys aren't ready. I think that's a much better looking lineup than, say, Oden, Aldridge, Jeff Green, Roy, and whatever PG they have.
Seattle just gives Oden the keys right away. Imagine how happy Lewis and Ray Allen will be with an actual force down low. And they give up guys who they're not entirely sure of.
Everyone has been saying that Oden is the safe pick, and that Portland is too scared not to take him. Ironically, I think, considering their roster, he's actually more of a gamble. If they do this deal, they're certain to have three great players, plus more guys that could be. If they just take Oden, then they have to make more trades and hope everything pans out. Durant is a natural fit for them in between their already decent combo.
And Oden might keep basketball in Seattle and take the Sonics to the playoffs... and soon.
So, I'm begging you, Portland, PLEASE, do the right thing. You won't ever be accused of pulling a Sam Bowie again. You'll make things easier for yourself. If you liked seeing him in person so much, just let Durant be the guy. But trade down so you can pick up more help. Hell, they might even take Darius Miles. Maybe. They're being awfully cheap, but I think they'd change their minds over Oden. They value him a lot more than Durant, and a lot more than you do. Use that.
As I wrote this, I realized the dark reasons that Portland could be thinking of for why they should NEVER do thsi trade: if it saves basketball in Seattle, they're helping their rivals. If they let Seattle struggle, they'll be the only team in the Northwest. They might benefit financially. They could eliminate their local competition.
That's why I wish the top two picks were switched.
I'm gonna watch this draft and hope that Portland deicdes Durant is too sexy to give up. I'm going to pray that the news Sonics management realizes that they can keep the team there and thrive if they do this right. I'm going to hope that some sort of cosmic justice can align itself here and let both these teams do what's best.
And since the Sixers didn't get in the top three, this is all I have left.
Why couldn't the top two picks be reversed?
See, Portland went into this draft on an upswing. They were merely hoping to land a decent pick so they could get a small forward to complete their lineup, be it Jeff Green or Julian Wright. When they beat the odds and got the top pick, everything changed. They had to rethink the whole process.
Seattle was just begging for a decent pick anywhere. They needed excitement and a fresh start. Landing in the top two would help their situation immensely. They got it, and cheered... but for how long?
Here's what I hate: Portland would have been just fine with Durant. They would have been ELATED for number two. They might have been just fine with one of those other guys. Seattle, though, wanted Oden badly. They already have a great perimeter set up; the only thing that's kept them from the playoffs is the interior. They've drafted lots of projects in the past few years, but so far, none have panned out. If they landed Oden, it might be enough to keep them in Seattle. They could then probably convince Rashard Lewis to stay, and they'd be set. But Durant, as much excitement as he brings, is not as much of a savior. They'll let Lewis go and plug him in at the three, and it won't change anything for now. I think he's got more potential than Lewis, but he doesn't solve all their problems. Oden might.
Before the lottery, Simmons said that Seattle had the most karma out of all the lottery. I can agree with that. Seattle has always been a great basketball city with great, underrated fans. What happened to them in the past few years is terrible. They've had a bad ownership team, a bad front office, overwhelmed coaches, and a bad stadium lease. These people don't deserve that. For 30 years, they were passionate about the Sonics. Let them keep that.
I mean, how long has it been since Seattle had a decent center? Have they ever? They made it to the finals and won a lot of games in the 90's with scraps and Shawn Kemp owning at the four spot. Did they even have an all star before then? Jack Sikma? I don't know. Oden would be the first in a long, long time.
Even Simmons admitted that he'd rather have Durant if he was picking for Portland. He sugested they trade down with the Sonics and pick up Lewis for their troubles. That would be a sweet lineup, but it's too many people to please. I think if they simply take Durant and pick up future picks (and either Robert Swift or Mohammed Sene) from Seattle, it simplifies things.
Think about it:
Portland has been trying to dump Zach Randolph, admittedly a bad influence, and pick up a good three. But if they get a draft pick or someone like Antawn Jamison for him, does it make them better? They like LaMarcus Aldridge, but they don't know yet if he can be that low post scorer, or what position he fits at. Why not wait a year before deciding on Randolph to see how it all works? Why make these big decisions now?
If they dump him for a non-scorer at small forward, then find out that Oden and Aldridge don't have any offense yet, they're screwed. Whereas, if they take Durant, and pick up some of those young centers from Seattle, they'll be covered. They'll have three great players at the 2-3-4 spots, lots of young talent down low, and safer bets. Simmons' plan makes them too small and you can bet they'd complain about shots. But this plan gives them a balanced, exciting lineup. They can see if Swift, Alrdridge, or Sene works at the center spot, AND they still have Joel Pryzbilla, who can at least block shots and rebound, if these guys aren't ready. I think that's a much better looking lineup than, say, Oden, Aldridge, Jeff Green, Roy, and whatever PG they have.
Seattle just gives Oden the keys right away. Imagine how happy Lewis and Ray Allen will be with an actual force down low. And they give up guys who they're not entirely sure of.
Everyone has been saying that Oden is the safe pick, and that Portland is too scared not to take him. Ironically, I think, considering their roster, he's actually more of a gamble. If they do this deal, they're certain to have three great players, plus more guys that could be. If they just take Oden, then they have to make more trades and hope everything pans out. Durant is a natural fit for them in between their already decent combo.
And Oden might keep basketball in Seattle and take the Sonics to the playoffs... and soon.
So, I'm begging you, Portland, PLEASE, do the right thing. You won't ever be accused of pulling a Sam Bowie again. You'll make things easier for yourself. If you liked seeing him in person so much, just let Durant be the guy. But trade down so you can pick up more help. Hell, they might even take Darius Miles. Maybe. They're being awfully cheap, but I think they'd change their minds over Oden. They value him a lot more than Durant, and a lot more than you do. Use that.
As I wrote this, I realized the dark reasons that Portland could be thinking of for why they should NEVER do thsi trade: if it saves basketball in Seattle, they're helping their rivals. If they let Seattle struggle, they'll be the only team in the Northwest. They might benefit financially. They could eliminate their local competition.
That's why I wish the top two picks were switched.
I'm gonna watch this draft and hope that Portland deicdes Durant is too sexy to give up. I'm going to pray that the news Sonics management realizes that they can keep the team there and thrive if they do this right. I'm going to hope that some sort of cosmic justice can align itself here and let both these teams do what's best.
And since the Sixers didn't get in the top three, this is all I have left.
Friday, June 22, 2007
another work in progress
Trade updates part deux:
If the NBA was really interesting in biasing things toward the East, they'd make it possible for Chicago to acquire Kobe and KG. But it's not possible under salary cap rules... unless they gave up Ben Wallace, which would leave 1. them with no help for those two, and 2. he's the last guy any other team wants to have. If they could swing it so they had KG, Ben, Nocioni, Duhon, and Kobe... I mean, that's almost enough to win the East, right? They'd have no bench and not much scoring besides the big duo ... but if LeBron can carry a team where no on else is going for more than 15 a night to the finals, they'd have to do it, right? The MJ-Pippen Bulls had basically two superstars, one good rebounder, one decent third scorer, and a bunch of misfits.... this is almost like that. And they'd have two big guys who can defend, which would destory the East. Duhon has worked to be a decent shooter, and Nocioni can defend and hit threes, so that wouldn't be a terrible lineup. No bench, but they might have a few exceptions and trade rules left.
But every scenario I've tried to come up with doesn't work. Even if they use the sign-and-trade leverage for P. J. Brown, they can't afford three colossal contracts when two of them are incoming. They might, MIGHT be able to do it if they get big sign-and-trades for Brown and Nocioni, but then they really gut their roster and they have to hope other people are interested in paying big bucks for those guys. In the end, it's nearly impossible to get both.
It's a shame, because this would totally re-energize the East, give the league a marquee team in Chicago again with marquee names, and give the Lakers and Wolves some great young talent. I don't think the Bulls are really so interesting in gutting their team to get KG or Kobe, when they could make a simpler move (like Pau Gasol) and have a young team that could compete for years. But then again, they made that big deal for Ben Wallace, indicating that they'd like to win now.
Well, we know this:
KG will not play for Boston.
Shawn Marion will not play for Boston or Minnesota.
Kobe will only play for Dallas, Phoenix, or Chicago, if he's really done with the Lakers.
Phoenix and LA are weary of dealing with each other because of their rivalry.
Does that create anything? Not yet.
ANOTHER NEWS NOTE:
As Henry Abbott noted today, Danny Ferry and the Cavs haven't made all great moves, but they have at least opened up the vault to sign people. They'll pay the tax and invest. That's better than being cheap for everything. They've been able to take bad contracts off other teams (I do appreciate them taking Eric Snow, if they could only take every other move Billy King made...) and help those teams out. Now that Steve Kerr is in Phoenix and Sam Presti is in San Antonio, both guys Ferry knows from San Antonio, the Cavs could offer help to thos teams with their contract problems, because both of them are being cheap and both are also happy to deal to an Eastern team. As Abott said, this means that the Cavs could be the destination for Rashard Lewis or Shawn Marion.
That makes sense, but of course, both of those guys have options (Lewis is on one now), so they'll have to be convinced to go there. Marion might not like it, but Lewis is a great fit. I said they should resume talks with Seattle about Ray Allen.... but they could just go after him instead and not have to give up as much. I didn't see what their deal space was like, but if they're willing to take on bad contracts, they become a little more attractive trade partner. Lewis could solve a lot of problems for them....
Here's one to think about:
NEW JERSEY trades
Richard Jefferson, Bernard Robinson, Josh Boone, Bostjan Nachbar, Hassan Adams, Cliff Robinson, Antoine Wright (all expire in a year), # 16 pick to MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA trades
Kevin Garnett to PHOENIX, Trenton Hassell to NEW JERSEY
PHOENIX trades
Shawn Marion, James Jones to JERSEY, Eric Piatkowski, # 22 pick, future pick (from Atlanta) to MINNESOTA
Minnesota gets to drump Hassell, pickup Jefferson, draft picks, and a lot of guys whos contracts are up soon. Jersey exchanges Jefferson for Marion and Jones, which I think is an upgrade (he needs to play with either Nash or Kidd and no one else). Phoenix gets KG without giving up Amare, as they wish. Phoenix also sends Marion eastbound, and makes it harder for the Lakers to make deals, since, as I already proposed, Jersey is one of the few teams that might not mind picking up Lamar Odom. You could say that Minnesota isn't getting much worth back for KG, but they need to start getting rid of salaries, and Jefferson and a bunch of draft picks isn't a terrible start. Three first rounders this year gives them depth; then next year, they hope that Atlanta's pick is good. It's something.
If the NBA was really interesting in biasing things toward the East, they'd make it possible for Chicago to acquire Kobe and KG. But it's not possible under salary cap rules... unless they gave up Ben Wallace, which would leave 1. them with no help for those two, and 2. he's the last guy any other team wants to have. If they could swing it so they had KG, Ben, Nocioni, Duhon, and Kobe... I mean, that's almost enough to win the East, right? They'd have no bench and not much scoring besides the big duo ... but if LeBron can carry a team where no on else is going for more than 15 a night to the finals, they'd have to do it, right? The MJ-Pippen Bulls had basically two superstars, one good rebounder, one decent third scorer, and a bunch of misfits.... this is almost like that. And they'd have two big guys who can defend, which would destory the East. Duhon has worked to be a decent shooter, and Nocioni can defend and hit threes, so that wouldn't be a terrible lineup. No bench, but they might have a few exceptions and trade rules left.
But every scenario I've tried to come up with doesn't work. Even if they use the sign-and-trade leverage for P. J. Brown, they can't afford three colossal contracts when two of them are incoming. They might, MIGHT be able to do it if they get big sign-and-trades for Brown and Nocioni, but then they really gut their roster and they have to hope other people are interested in paying big bucks for those guys. In the end, it's nearly impossible to get both.
It's a shame, because this would totally re-energize the East, give the league a marquee team in Chicago again with marquee names, and give the Lakers and Wolves some great young talent. I don't think the Bulls are really so interesting in gutting their team to get KG or Kobe, when they could make a simpler move (like Pau Gasol) and have a young team that could compete for years. But then again, they made that big deal for Ben Wallace, indicating that they'd like to win now.
Well, we know this:
KG will not play for Boston.
Shawn Marion will not play for Boston or Minnesota.
Kobe will only play for Dallas, Phoenix, or Chicago, if he's really done with the Lakers.
Phoenix and LA are weary of dealing with each other because of their rivalry.
Does that create anything? Not yet.
ANOTHER NEWS NOTE:
As Henry Abbott noted today, Danny Ferry and the Cavs haven't made all great moves, but they have at least opened up the vault to sign people. They'll pay the tax and invest. That's better than being cheap for everything. They've been able to take bad contracts off other teams (I do appreciate them taking Eric Snow, if they could only take every other move Billy King made...) and help those teams out. Now that Steve Kerr is in Phoenix and Sam Presti is in San Antonio, both guys Ferry knows from San Antonio, the Cavs could offer help to thos teams with their contract problems, because both of them are being cheap and both are also happy to deal to an Eastern team. As Abott said, this means that the Cavs could be the destination for Rashard Lewis or Shawn Marion.
That makes sense, but of course, both of those guys have options (Lewis is on one now), so they'll have to be convinced to go there. Marion might not like it, but Lewis is a great fit. I said they should resume talks with Seattle about Ray Allen.... but they could just go after him instead and not have to give up as much. I didn't see what their deal space was like, but if they're willing to take on bad contracts, they become a little more attractive trade partner. Lewis could solve a lot of problems for them....
Here's one to think about:
NEW JERSEY trades
Richard Jefferson, Bernard Robinson, Josh Boone, Bostjan Nachbar, Hassan Adams, Cliff Robinson, Antoine Wright (all expire in a year), # 16 pick to MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA trades
Kevin Garnett to PHOENIX, Trenton Hassell to NEW JERSEY
PHOENIX trades
Shawn Marion, James Jones to JERSEY, Eric Piatkowski, # 22 pick, future pick (from Atlanta) to MINNESOTA
Minnesota gets to drump Hassell, pickup Jefferson, draft picks, and a lot of guys whos contracts are up soon. Jersey exchanges Jefferson for Marion and Jones, which I think is an upgrade (he needs to play with either Nash or Kidd and no one else). Phoenix gets KG without giving up Amare, as they wish. Phoenix also sends Marion eastbound, and makes it harder for the Lakers to make deals, since, as I already proposed, Jersey is one of the few teams that might not mind picking up Lamar Odom. You could say that Minnesota isn't getting much worth back for KG, but they need to start getting rid of salaries, and Jefferson and a bunch of draft picks isn't a terrible start. Three first rounders this year gives them depth; then next year, they hope that Atlanta's pick is good. It's something.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
how the east was won, or at least saved
With all the draft/trade rumors, the Oden vs. Durant question, and Kobe bringing the whining level back up to annoying status, there's a lot going on. Simmons stated recently that the offeseason of the NBA is attracting more attention than the actual season. That's bad. And it's true. For NBA junkies like us, the draft and trade season are always exciting, but when normal fans care about them more than the playoffs, well, that's no good. Diehards love the NFL draft, but not as much as the season, and normal fans don't pay too much attention.
Most people blame the lackluster finals and the imbalance of conferences. Everyone is throwing around ideas for realignments and other proposals. As we all know, the West is much better and it's staying that way, thanks to the lottery, and horrible front offices in the east. There isn't much on the immediate horizon for the East right now.... so...
Do any of these supposed plans work? Here are some ideas:
1. Reseed the playoffs 1-16, regardless of conference.
2. Simmons' extravagant solution: give the top six teams in each conference a spot and a first round bye. Seed those 12 teams like this: conference leader 1, other conference leader 2, then just by records. Have a double-elimination tournament with the remaining 9 teams in each conference. Winners get the last two seeds. Crazy NCAA type brackets ensue.
3. Create two coast-to-coast conferences, like the NFL and MLB have. Then you don't have to rely on weaker teams, east or west... though, just like those leagues, one could still be better than the other. You could divide them up betwen cities, and maybe classic teams. Here's one example I had:
AMERICAN CONFERENCE
New York, Boston, Washington, Atlanta, Miami
Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Dallas, New Orleans
LA Clippers, Golden State, Seattle, Denver, Phoenix
NATIONAL CONFERENCE
New Jersey, Philadelphia, Orlando, Charlotte, Toronto
Chicago, Minnesota, Houston, Indiana, Memphis
LA Lakers, Portland, Sacramento, Utah, San Antonio
... and so forth. It's a basic plan that could be changed. But the idea is that, like baseball, the divisions are made into leagues, with teams from all over.
4. My not so radical idea: consolidate 2 or 4 teams, have two large conferences or maybe 4 medium divisions.
5. Conspiracy theorsits like this idea: that David Stern fixes it so Kobe, KG, and others go eastbound, helping the imbalance himself.
So here's the chances of any of these five scenarios happening: ZERO. Look, Stern knows that the East sucks, but he's not going to realign anything. The first plan isn't fair, because the East records are unfairly meaured against the stronger west. Besides, if that or the other first three plans happen, guess what the finals are? Phoenix - San Antonio. Maybe Dallas, if they never had to face Golden State, could be in there. But that's it. If the NBA changes its system, they could end up with a finale involving two smaller Western markets. Will that help ratings?
Now, ironically, that Phoenix - San Antonio series was great. It would have made an exciting finals. It was, in all honesty, the de facto finals this year; we all knew whoever won that would get the title easily. And they did. But suppose that was the series that ABC had to promote in June... do they want to have Phoenix and San Antonio as the last two teams remaining? Does this really help the ratings that much? Does anyone on the East coast care?
Stern knows that keeping the system as it is guarantees that one of the major Eastern media markets is likely to make it to the end. He'd love to have it be Knicks-Lakers, but since that's not happening, I think he'd rather have Heat-Mavs again than Suns-Spurs. It would be nice if people expected the Eastern representative to actually do something. Ironically, as much better as the West has been for the entire decade, two teams (Detroit and Miami) managed to catch fire in the playoffs and win it all. That helped. But now, no one expects it anymore.
Interesting that baseball had a similar problem when they made the new World Series schedule. Many people have complained that, in the East, the games come on way too late. They don't end until midnight. Baseball, many have figured, is banking on the loyalty of the diehard East coast fans to stay up and watch, while making things easier for those on the West coast, who are less passionate. They think, allegedly, that this system will get the most viewers on both sides. But many are tuning it out anyway.
Now...
If the World Series, one of the oldest traditions in sports we have, is starting to worry about viewership, you can better believe that Stern is fretting over his post-MJ product. He's not going to take those East coast crazies for granted like baseball is. He's going to make sure one Eastern team is included. The NBA finals aren't as big or traditional as the Series, and certainly not the Super Bowl. They can't afford to say, "Well, we don't care who plays in the big game, people will watch. It's the championship." Nope. They know better. That is why Stern will reject any major realignment plan.
As for my idea... I'm hoping Stern considers slicing teams. He probably doesn't want the disgrace of being the first commissioner in many years to actually get rid of teams (Selig probably almost did it and maybe should have, but refused to, for similar reasons). But I think that would help. Who knows. If Atlanta, Charlotte, and Memphis can turn a profit (and Seattle and New Orleans are satisfied where they are), I guess I can't say anything.
Most people blame the lackluster finals and the imbalance of conferences. Everyone is throwing around ideas for realignments and other proposals. As we all know, the West is much better and it's staying that way, thanks to the lottery, and horrible front offices in the east. There isn't much on the immediate horizon for the East right now.... so...
Do any of these supposed plans work? Here are some ideas:
1. Reseed the playoffs 1-16, regardless of conference.
2. Simmons' extravagant solution: give the top six teams in each conference a spot and a first round bye. Seed those 12 teams like this: conference leader 1, other conference leader 2, then just by records. Have a double-elimination tournament with the remaining 9 teams in each conference. Winners get the last two seeds. Crazy NCAA type brackets ensue.
3. Create two coast-to-coast conferences, like the NFL and MLB have. Then you don't have to rely on weaker teams, east or west... though, just like those leagues, one could still be better than the other. You could divide them up betwen cities, and maybe classic teams. Here's one example I had:
AMERICAN CONFERENCE
New York, Boston, Washington, Atlanta, Miami
Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Dallas, New Orleans
LA Clippers, Golden State, Seattle, Denver, Phoenix
NATIONAL CONFERENCE
New Jersey, Philadelphia, Orlando, Charlotte, Toronto
Chicago, Minnesota, Houston, Indiana, Memphis
LA Lakers, Portland, Sacramento, Utah, San Antonio
... and so forth. It's a basic plan that could be changed. But the idea is that, like baseball, the divisions are made into leagues, with teams from all over.
4. My not so radical idea: consolidate 2 or 4 teams, have two large conferences or maybe 4 medium divisions.
5. Conspiracy theorsits like this idea: that David Stern fixes it so Kobe, KG, and others go eastbound, helping the imbalance himself.
So here's the chances of any of these five scenarios happening: ZERO. Look, Stern knows that the East sucks, but he's not going to realign anything. The first plan isn't fair, because the East records are unfairly meaured against the stronger west. Besides, if that or the other first three plans happen, guess what the finals are? Phoenix - San Antonio. Maybe Dallas, if they never had to face Golden State, could be in there. But that's it. If the NBA changes its system, they could end up with a finale involving two smaller Western markets. Will that help ratings?
Now, ironically, that Phoenix - San Antonio series was great. It would have made an exciting finals. It was, in all honesty, the de facto finals this year; we all knew whoever won that would get the title easily. And they did. But suppose that was the series that ABC had to promote in June... do they want to have Phoenix and San Antonio as the last two teams remaining? Does this really help the ratings that much? Does anyone on the East coast care?
Stern knows that keeping the system as it is guarantees that one of the major Eastern media markets is likely to make it to the end. He'd love to have it be Knicks-Lakers, but since that's not happening, I think he'd rather have Heat-Mavs again than Suns-Spurs. It would be nice if people expected the Eastern representative to actually do something. Ironically, as much better as the West has been for the entire decade, two teams (Detroit and Miami) managed to catch fire in the playoffs and win it all. That helped. But now, no one expects it anymore.
Interesting that baseball had a similar problem when they made the new World Series schedule. Many people have complained that, in the East, the games come on way too late. They don't end until midnight. Baseball, many have figured, is banking on the loyalty of the diehard East coast fans to stay up and watch, while making things easier for those on the West coast, who are less passionate. They think, allegedly, that this system will get the most viewers on both sides. But many are tuning it out anyway.
Now...
If the World Series, one of the oldest traditions in sports we have, is starting to worry about viewership, you can better believe that Stern is fretting over his post-MJ product. He's not going to take those East coast crazies for granted like baseball is. He's going to make sure one Eastern team is included. The NBA finals aren't as big or traditional as the Series, and certainly not the Super Bowl. They can't afford to say, "Well, we don't care who plays in the big game, people will watch. It's the championship." Nope. They know better. That is why Stern will reject any major realignment plan.
As for my idea... I'm hoping Stern considers slicing teams. He probably doesn't want the disgrace of being the first commissioner in many years to actually get rid of teams (Selig probably almost did it and maybe should have, but refused to, for similar reasons). But I think that would help. Who knows. If Atlanta, Charlotte, and Memphis can turn a profit (and Seattle and New Orleans are satisfied where they are), I guess I can't say anything.
Saturday, June 16, 2007
spurious finals recap
Thanks, Cleveland. Way to make a series out of it. I thought you could steal one or two games at home. Maybe LeBron would have a big game, get some class, use the home advantage. No. You only proved how huge the gap is between conferences.
Some things to learn from this series:
ON THE CAVS
- Cleveland needed a guard who could hit open threes and defend. That's it. I thought drafting Daniel Gibson was a steal, because all the things he lost value for in school were offset. He isn't a true passer, but he doesn't have to be here. He stepped up, even if the Spurs exposed him as not yet ready, and he should be the guy next year. But why did it take them so long to give him minutes? Anyway, his playoff performance eases things for them
- They need another shooter, since LeBron is a better passer than scorer and can't handle all of it. I still can't believe that Ray Allen and Michael Redd turned them down so forcefully - is it worth all that money to be on a bad team in a smaller market (as Seattle will soon be gone)? Stupid. Maybe they can swing a deal with Seattle now... if only they had anyone to offer.
- They've been happy for the past few years that big Z has been healthy. It's been amazing that he kept getting hurt year after year, it looked hopeless, and then suddenly he had 4 or 5 years in a row of being fine. Bizarre. BUT NOW, they probably want to start fazing him out. He's too slow, and they had their best success when they went smaller and used Varejao. They can easily pick up a backup big man who can hit jumpers if they want that.
- Going along with that, Varejao is a restricted free agent. He's a nice backup, with great energy, but do they shell out cash? Well, Z and Donyell Marshall are getting old....
- Essentially, unless the conference suddenly gets much better, they're in good shape. They should see what deals are possible, but they're still the class of the east... if there is any class.
ON THE SPURS
- What do you compain about? They got it done. They're one of the best and most underappreciated teams ever. This is how the greats are - maybe they don't win three in a row, but over the course of a decade, they get a couple. Magic's Lakers only repeated once. Bird's Celtics never did. We think of them as great, but not these guys. The Bulls-Rockets-Bulls-Lakers teams get more press because they did it consecutively, and repeating is the hardest thing to do, but still... don't front on the Spurs.
- They have some changes to make. Horry is getting old. Finley is and he might leave. Udrih isn't their plan at backup anymore. Matt Bonner did nothing. Okay, okay... so these are all supporting guys, and their core is fine, I know. I'm guessing they'll figure something out. They've got the best front office in the league. Plus, they drafted some foreign guys whom they haven't even brought in yet, and given their track record, you have to think they'll be ok.
- Still, I wonder if they will do something dramatic. They know they dodged two major bullets with those questionable Suns ejections ( I think they still would have won that series, but it helped), and not facing Dallas at all. I picked them before the season, and again before teh playoffs, because I thought they had that drive to all get one more title before they got too old. So now what? They're geting more respect now, they won everything, and they've never repeated. Is that enough? With the Mavs, Suns, Jazz, and Rockets looking good (not to mention young teams like the Warriors, Nuggets, and potentially the Lakers if they make a deal?) They have to know this current group is going to fade soon.... but then, they don't panic.
- Glad they never traded Tony Parker. They need him and his unique style. He's not a true point but he proved how valuable he was to this team. With Ginobli and Duncan, they don't need him to be a pure passer. That's why trade scenarios are probably better left to minor adjustments. And I'm sure he's popular there. He might not work other places.
West is Best. Again. Can that change soon? Next time, we'll go more in depth.
Some things to learn from this series:
ON THE CAVS
- Cleveland needed a guard who could hit open threes and defend. That's it. I thought drafting Daniel Gibson was a steal, because all the things he lost value for in school were offset. He isn't a true passer, but he doesn't have to be here. He stepped up, even if the Spurs exposed him as not yet ready, and he should be the guy next year. But why did it take them so long to give him minutes? Anyway, his playoff performance eases things for them
- They need another shooter, since LeBron is a better passer than scorer and can't handle all of it. I still can't believe that Ray Allen and Michael Redd turned them down so forcefully - is it worth all that money to be on a bad team in a smaller market (as Seattle will soon be gone)? Stupid. Maybe they can swing a deal with Seattle now... if only they had anyone to offer.
- They've been happy for the past few years that big Z has been healthy. It's been amazing that he kept getting hurt year after year, it looked hopeless, and then suddenly he had 4 or 5 years in a row of being fine. Bizarre. BUT NOW, they probably want to start fazing him out. He's too slow, and they had their best success when they went smaller and used Varejao. They can easily pick up a backup big man who can hit jumpers if they want that.
- Going along with that, Varejao is a restricted free agent. He's a nice backup, with great energy, but do they shell out cash? Well, Z and Donyell Marshall are getting old....
- Essentially, unless the conference suddenly gets much better, they're in good shape. They should see what deals are possible, but they're still the class of the east... if there is any class.
ON THE SPURS
- What do you compain about? They got it done. They're one of the best and most underappreciated teams ever. This is how the greats are - maybe they don't win three in a row, but over the course of a decade, they get a couple. Magic's Lakers only repeated once. Bird's Celtics never did. We think of them as great, but not these guys. The Bulls-Rockets-Bulls-Lakers teams get more press because they did it consecutively, and repeating is the hardest thing to do, but still... don't front on the Spurs.
- They have some changes to make. Horry is getting old. Finley is and he might leave. Udrih isn't their plan at backup anymore. Matt Bonner did nothing. Okay, okay... so these are all supporting guys, and their core is fine, I know. I'm guessing they'll figure something out. They've got the best front office in the league. Plus, they drafted some foreign guys whom they haven't even brought in yet, and given their track record, you have to think they'll be ok.
- Still, I wonder if they will do something dramatic. They know they dodged two major bullets with those questionable Suns ejections ( I think they still would have won that series, but it helped), and not facing Dallas at all. I picked them before the season, and again before teh playoffs, because I thought they had that drive to all get one more title before they got too old. So now what? They're geting more respect now, they won everything, and they've never repeated. Is that enough? With the Mavs, Suns, Jazz, and Rockets looking good (not to mention young teams like the Warriors, Nuggets, and potentially the Lakers if they make a deal?) They have to know this current group is going to fade soon.... but then, they don't panic.
- Glad they never traded Tony Parker. They need him and his unique style. He's not a true point but he proved how valuable he was to this team. With Ginobli and Duncan, they don't need him to be a pure passer. That's why trade scenarios are probably better left to minor adjustments. And I'm sure he's popular there. He might not work other places.
West is Best. Again. Can that change soon? Next time, we'll go more in depth.
Monday, June 11, 2007
work in progress
This is a gradual experiment I'm working on. This space is going to be reserved for trade ideas. I've got a million ideas on how teams could potentially improve themselves... but then, who knows if anyone will listen to sense. Also, I thought of these based on needs, when star power, salaries, and luxury cap ramifications factor in more than that. Sometimes.
So I'm gonna propose them, check up with them on the ESPN trade machine, and see if they work and maybe adjust them. In the meantime, you can see how they fared. Simmons apparently spends hours each day on this thing, but since this is not my day job, I can't. But I will check in from time to time.
TRADE 1: GASOL GOODIES
Chicago and Memphis have been talking for months, and maybe the Bulls should have done it earlier, but then, they might have given up Gordon or Deng. I think they can pull it off without. This version gives Memphis three young guys who can help, Chicago everything they need, and gets Memphis' cap space down... way down.
CHICAGO trades
Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Selfosha, #9 pick this year, Mike Sweetney
MEMPHIS trades
Pau Gasol, Brian Cardinal, Dahntay Jones
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
Dammit....
TRADE 2: PLEASE BILLY PLEASE
I don't know if this works under the salary cap, but f**k it, if the Sixers can swing it any posible way, I don't think the Blazers can get much better deals.
PHILADELPHIA trades
picks this year (11, 21, 30), Kyle Korver, Kevin Ollie
PORTLAND trades
Zach Randolph
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
Awww f&$#$&#$&#..... Billy, you're the worst. How are they way over the cap? I hope Joe Smith is found in an alley, covered in blood and urine. Unless his cap space is really done this year.
TRADE 1 and 1/2: CONNECTING THESE
This will make the Sixers' deal a little sweeter. It ensures the Blazers will probably get Julian Wright or Jeff Green, which will complete their young, expolsive lineup. Memphis knows they can trade down to get Acie Law, plus another first rounder, and get rid of even more space with Swift, who fills a decent bench role in Portland.
MEMPHIS trades
pick #9 (see trade 1), Stromile Swift
PORTLAND trades
pick #11, pick # 21 ( see trade 2)
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
OK, maybe the trade machine isn't the end-all. I can't seem to pull off any deals involving Memphis, Philly, Portland, or Chicago. I know this is wrong because you can't account for all the deals that will be made in the future, or draft picks, or sign-and-trades. Which Chicago has a lot of. I could not get any of these trades to work unless Chicago gave up one of their young assets (Deng, Gordon, Duhon) or Philly did too (Iggy, Miller, Dalembert). That's not happening when they have lottery picks instead. If the machine could factor in what the Bulls do with Sweetney and P. J. Brown, I think this could all work. Maybe.
I will check on this later.
TRADE 3: THE BIG KAHUNA
These teams have been rumored to make trades for a while. They should get together and realize that they can help each other. The Lakers desperately want to get an all-star big man, but Lamar Odom is skeptical about going to certain places (Indiana) and the Pacers probably don't want to deal with him anyway. This allows them to get their man while keeping Bynum, which should please the Busses. And Kobe. Jersey, meanwhile, needs a four man, and would probably be willing to give up one of its wings... of course, this is all pending what Vince wants to do. But if they give him cash, and make this trade, that sends a good message, right?
LAKERS trade
Kwame Brown, # 19 pick to INDIANA, Lamar Odom, Vlad Radmanovic to JERSEY
PACERS trade
Jermaine O'Neal, Mike Dunleavy to LAKERS, Rawle Marshall to JERSEY
NEW JERSEY trades
Richard Jefferson to INDIANA, Mikki Moore to LAKERS
TRADE MACHINE: no, but almost....
Okay, here's the new deal:
LAKERS GET: O'Neal, Dunleavy, Antoine Wright (NJ)
NETS GET: Odom, Radmanovic, Maurice Evans (LA)
PACERS GET: Brown, Jefferson, Josh Boone (NJ), Cliff Robinson (NJ) (he'll be waved or traded shortly), Hassan Adams (NJ)
AHA! All the key components stay the same and a few young pups and washed up vets are moved around. Get on the phone, Kupchak. You don't want to pass this one up... rid of Kwame and the Rad Man whilst getting Jermaine and a good passer/shooter in Dunleavy. Of course, once again, Vince Carter can sabotage this whole thing. But it works.
TRADE 4: THE OTHER KAHUNA
Isiah is an idiot, but he also likes trading for big contracts and he might be able to pull this off. This would make the Knicks better and more consolidated, which they need, and it would also make Seattle younger and more interesting for the hometown fans.... of course, if they move, these guys lose some appeal. Whatever. Ray needs to go somewhere where he can be appreciated.... and the Lakers complete their overhaul to satisfy Kobe's whims.
Note: I can't process this deal on the trade machine until the first one is made... and it doesn't let you keep new rosters after trades have been made..... I think. The first one works. This might too. But for now, who knows...
NEW YORK trades
Jared Jeffries, Channing Frye, Nate Robinson, Jamal Crawford to SEATTLE, Steve Francis, Mardy Collins to LAKERS
SEATTLE trades
Ray Allen, Earl Watson, Nick Collison to NEW YORK
LAKERS trade
Mikki Moore, Sasha Vujacic to NEW YORK, future picks to SEATTLE
It seems like the Lakers don't give up much here, but then, they did in the last trade. Francis is almost an unwanted son at this point - New York wants to get rid of him for any price. Seattle gets back two OK guards for an all star, which seems like a bad move, but they get younger and deeper. They're building around Durant, and these two guys are Seattle natives. Maybe they get people excited? The Knicks get a great outside player they've missed in a long time, and rid of some crazy contracts.
(just as far as seattle-knicks go: WOW! The Knicks can give up Robinson, Jeffries, Crawford, and Frye for almost EXACTLY Allen and Watson. Hmm... maybe the Lakers getting Stevie Franchise is another deal entirely....)
(BUT, if the Lakers want Francis, they probably can't swing Dunleavy in any way. I might have to figure that deal out again if they want to have the cap space to add him. He's making 15 mil a year... not easy. Perhaps the Lakers can convince Isiah to pay some of his salary.)
SO, yes, the Lakers wouldn't be able to afford O'Neal, Francis, and Dunleavy together. They could give up every guy besides Kobe and it still wouldn't fit. So their best bet is probably to re-sign Luke Walton (who fits their system anyway) and go after a shooter. Indiana would liek to give up Dunleavy, but they're probably stuck with him now.
Let's redo these last two:
SEATTLE - NEW YORK # 4 stays the same
(Jamal Crawford, Nate Robinson, Channing Frye, possible picks, and Jared Jeffries
for
Ray Allen, Earl Watson... yes, it's almost an exactly even cap number)
NEW # 3 (including Francis)
LAKERS trade
Lamar Odom, Vlad Radmanovic, Maurice Evans to JERSEY, Kwame Brown to INDIANA, Sahsa Vujacic, # 19 pick to NEW YORK
INDIANA trades
Jermaine O'Neal to LAKERS, Shawne Williams to JERSEY
NEW JERSEY trades
Richard Jefferson, Cliff Robinson, Bernard Robinson, # 16 pick to INDIANA, Hassan Adams, Josh Boone to NEW YORK, Antoine Wright to LAKERS
NEW YORK trades
Mardy Collins, Steve Francis to LAKERS
That works. Kobe, make it happen.
UPDATE: I've been thinking about this one.... several things about it bother me. Like I said, I think the Pacers would much rather get rid of Dunleavy that Shawne Williams, who is younger and much less expensive. But Dunleavy's huge contract (nice job, Warriors... real freaking nice) is too much for New Jersey or the Lakers to absorb with all the players they get. I tried to mess around with these teams and figure out a way to make it happen. No luck.
Thing is, I think the Nets and Lakers would both take him.... they could both use a shooter at the three. But the Nets wouldn't give up any of their young assets, and they basically have to trade everyone on their bench right now just to fit Odom and Radman. I think they'd like to have another wing besides Dunleavy to pair with Vince. They'd take him and Maurice Evans, but they can't afford it. The Lakers would love to have Dunleavy back up Walton, because he can shoot better and is still a decent passer. But then they can't get anyone else. Maybe another deal is in order....
I tried to see if the Lakers could trade Brian Cook instead of Radman, allowing New Jersey to pick up Cook, Odom, Dunleavy, and Evans, which would be a great deal for them. And they can, but then the Lakers can't get Francis and JoNeal. Unless they part with Farmar and the maybe-untouchable Bynum, and they won't do that after dumping Kwame and Odom. So they're stuck.
Once again, I don't see why they felt a need to sign Radman when Cook is basically the same player. For cheaper. This is why Kobe is pissed right now.
TRADE 5: MISFITS AND MYSTICS AND MEN
Here, a few teams can get rid of some people they don't want. Wally goes back to Minnesota, and a change of scenery could help these other guys.
BOSTON trades
Wally Sczerbiak, Sebastian Telfair to MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA trades
Rashad McCants, Mike James to CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND trades
Shannon Brown, Eric Snow to BOSTON
James could help out Cleveland with his shooting, even if they are happy with Daniel Gibson. He's a better backup than Damon Jones or Snow, who will mostly serve as a mentor to Boston's young points. That group will not include Telfair, who gets another chance to prove he can do something. McCants hasn't done anything, but Cleveland will take any shooter they can get. Brown gives Boston another two to try out next to Pierce. I think KG accepts Wally back after seeing how miserable he's been without a decent outside shooter. These teams all want to be rid of these guys, so why not exchange them?
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
Almost, though. Minnesota needs to give up more to get Wally's colosal salary (which they made, by the way) to fit. Yikes... how are they over the cap with this roster? Anyway, they can throw in Marko Jaric's terrible contract to Boston in exchange for taking Brian Scalabrine off the Celtics' hands. Boston cringes, but at least they get rid of two bad contracts for one. Justin Reed, thrown into the last Boston-Minnesota trade, is thrown back again. The Celtics liked him, so maybe they'll use him.
redesigned:
BOSTON trades
Brian Scalabrine, Sebastian Telfair, Wally Sczerbiak to MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA trades
Mike James, Rashad McCants to CLEVELAND, Justin Reed, Marko Jaric to BOSTON
CLEVELAND trades
Shannon Brown, Eric Snow to BOSTON
Good? Simmons will probably shoot himself if the C's spend a large amount of money for two point guards they won't use. But hey, they got rid of Scalabrine, Wally, and Shoot-em-up Telfair, and Ratliff will be gone soon. That's something.
UPDATE 6/15:
SO... I guess this is not going down with the Wolves trading Mike James to the Rockets. That wasn't a bad deal, because they could use anyone besides KG who could score down low, even if Juwon Howard is almost dead. Cleveland is porbably better off giving more minutes to Daniel Gibson anyway. He proved during these playoffs that he could be that guy who hits shots and defends. He's just what they needed, so if he keeps improving, they should be OK.
I still think Boston should think of a way to unload Wally, especially if they can get the Wolves interested again. Why not?
TRADE 6: ONE ON ONE
With Shawn Marion wanting big bucks and the keys to a franchise, and the Suns' ownership stalling, he needs to go. He finds a similarly disgruntled match in Ronnie Artest. Both teams are delighted to get an all star for their disappointed forwards. Sacramento builds around Marion in a more exciting offense, giving him, Bibby, Kevin Martin, and younger guys free reign to gun it. They might draft another wing after this and go small. Artest can play the four spot in Phoenix's gun-it offense, or next to Boris Diaw. He improves them defensively while not giving up too much offensively for Marion. In a rare star-for-star trade, I think both teams benefit.
SACRAMENTO trades Ron Artest to PHOENIX for Shawn Marion
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
Whoops. Marion is making significantly more. No wonder Phoenix wants him out. Okay, the Suns might like another rebounder to add depth, and they can throw in a late draft pick if the Kings want. Let's try this again....
SACRAMENTO trades
Ron Artest, Shareef Abdur-Rahim to PHOENIX for
Shawn Marion
OK. Reef's salary works, though I think the Suns would not want to pay him for the next 4 years. Maybe they deal him or Kurt Thomas after this. Sacramento, for the record, doesn't miss him.
So I'm gonna propose them, check up with them on the ESPN trade machine, and see if they work and maybe adjust them. In the meantime, you can see how they fared. Simmons apparently spends hours each day on this thing, but since this is not my day job, I can't. But I will check in from time to time.
TRADE 1: GASOL GOODIES
Chicago and Memphis have been talking for months, and maybe the Bulls should have done it earlier, but then, they might have given up Gordon or Deng. I think they can pull it off without. This version gives Memphis three young guys who can help, Chicago everything they need, and gets Memphis' cap space down... way down.
CHICAGO trades
Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Selfosha, #9 pick this year, Mike Sweetney
MEMPHIS trades
Pau Gasol, Brian Cardinal, Dahntay Jones
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
Dammit....
TRADE 2: PLEASE BILLY PLEASE
I don't know if this works under the salary cap, but f**k it, if the Sixers can swing it any posible way, I don't think the Blazers can get much better deals.
PHILADELPHIA trades
picks this year (11, 21, 30), Kyle Korver, Kevin Ollie
PORTLAND trades
Zach Randolph
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
Awww f&$#$&#$&#..... Billy, you're the worst. How are they way over the cap? I hope Joe Smith is found in an alley, covered in blood and urine. Unless his cap space is really done this year.
TRADE 1 and 1/2: CONNECTING THESE
This will make the Sixers' deal a little sweeter. It ensures the Blazers will probably get Julian Wright or Jeff Green, which will complete their young, expolsive lineup. Memphis knows they can trade down to get Acie Law, plus another first rounder, and get rid of even more space with Swift, who fills a decent bench role in Portland.
MEMPHIS trades
pick #9 (see trade 1), Stromile Swift
PORTLAND trades
pick #11, pick # 21 ( see trade 2)
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
OK, maybe the trade machine isn't the end-all. I can't seem to pull off any deals involving Memphis, Philly, Portland, or Chicago. I know this is wrong because you can't account for all the deals that will be made in the future, or draft picks, or sign-and-trades. Which Chicago has a lot of. I could not get any of these trades to work unless Chicago gave up one of their young assets (Deng, Gordon, Duhon) or Philly did too (Iggy, Miller, Dalembert). That's not happening when they have lottery picks instead. If the machine could factor in what the Bulls do with Sweetney and P. J. Brown, I think this could all work. Maybe.
I will check on this later.
TRADE 3: THE BIG KAHUNA
These teams have been rumored to make trades for a while. They should get together and realize that they can help each other. The Lakers desperately want to get an all-star big man, but Lamar Odom is skeptical about going to certain places (Indiana) and the Pacers probably don't want to deal with him anyway. This allows them to get their man while keeping Bynum, which should please the Busses. And Kobe. Jersey, meanwhile, needs a four man, and would probably be willing to give up one of its wings... of course, this is all pending what Vince wants to do. But if they give him cash, and make this trade, that sends a good message, right?
LAKERS trade
Kwame Brown, # 19 pick to INDIANA, Lamar Odom, Vlad Radmanovic to JERSEY
PACERS trade
Jermaine O'Neal, Mike Dunleavy to LAKERS, Rawle Marshall to JERSEY
NEW JERSEY trades
Richard Jefferson to INDIANA, Mikki Moore to LAKERS
TRADE MACHINE: no, but almost....
Okay, here's the new deal:
LAKERS GET: O'Neal, Dunleavy, Antoine Wright (NJ)
NETS GET: Odom, Radmanovic, Maurice Evans (LA)
PACERS GET: Brown, Jefferson, Josh Boone (NJ), Cliff Robinson (NJ) (he'll be waved or traded shortly), Hassan Adams (NJ)
AHA! All the key components stay the same and a few young pups and washed up vets are moved around. Get on the phone, Kupchak. You don't want to pass this one up... rid of Kwame and the Rad Man whilst getting Jermaine and a good passer/shooter in Dunleavy. Of course, once again, Vince Carter can sabotage this whole thing. But it works.
TRADE 4: THE OTHER KAHUNA
Isiah is an idiot, but he also likes trading for big contracts and he might be able to pull this off. This would make the Knicks better and more consolidated, which they need, and it would also make Seattle younger and more interesting for the hometown fans.... of course, if they move, these guys lose some appeal. Whatever. Ray needs to go somewhere where he can be appreciated.... and the Lakers complete their overhaul to satisfy Kobe's whims.
Note: I can't process this deal on the trade machine until the first one is made... and it doesn't let you keep new rosters after trades have been made..... I think. The first one works. This might too. But for now, who knows...
NEW YORK trades
Jared Jeffries, Channing Frye, Nate Robinson, Jamal Crawford to SEATTLE, Steve Francis, Mardy Collins to LAKERS
SEATTLE trades
Ray Allen, Earl Watson, Nick Collison to NEW YORK
LAKERS trade
Mikki Moore, Sasha Vujacic to NEW YORK, future picks to SEATTLE
It seems like the Lakers don't give up much here, but then, they did in the last trade. Francis is almost an unwanted son at this point - New York wants to get rid of him for any price. Seattle gets back two OK guards for an all star, which seems like a bad move, but they get younger and deeper. They're building around Durant, and these two guys are Seattle natives. Maybe they get people excited? The Knicks get a great outside player they've missed in a long time, and rid of some crazy contracts.
(just as far as seattle-knicks go: WOW! The Knicks can give up Robinson, Jeffries, Crawford, and Frye for almost EXACTLY Allen and Watson. Hmm... maybe the Lakers getting Stevie Franchise is another deal entirely....)
(BUT, if the Lakers want Francis, they probably can't swing Dunleavy in any way. I might have to figure that deal out again if they want to have the cap space to add him. He's making 15 mil a year... not easy. Perhaps the Lakers can convince Isiah to pay some of his salary.)
SO, yes, the Lakers wouldn't be able to afford O'Neal, Francis, and Dunleavy together. They could give up every guy besides Kobe and it still wouldn't fit. So their best bet is probably to re-sign Luke Walton (who fits their system anyway) and go after a shooter. Indiana would liek to give up Dunleavy, but they're probably stuck with him now.
Let's redo these last two:
SEATTLE - NEW YORK # 4 stays the same
(Jamal Crawford, Nate Robinson, Channing Frye, possible picks, and Jared Jeffries
for
Ray Allen, Earl Watson... yes, it's almost an exactly even cap number)
NEW # 3 (including Francis)
LAKERS trade
Lamar Odom, Vlad Radmanovic, Maurice Evans to JERSEY, Kwame Brown to INDIANA, Sahsa Vujacic, # 19 pick to NEW YORK
INDIANA trades
Jermaine O'Neal to LAKERS, Shawne Williams to JERSEY
NEW JERSEY trades
Richard Jefferson, Cliff Robinson, Bernard Robinson, # 16 pick to INDIANA, Hassan Adams, Josh Boone to NEW YORK, Antoine Wright to LAKERS
NEW YORK trades
Mardy Collins, Steve Francis to LAKERS
That works. Kobe, make it happen.
UPDATE: I've been thinking about this one.... several things about it bother me. Like I said, I think the Pacers would much rather get rid of Dunleavy that Shawne Williams, who is younger and much less expensive. But Dunleavy's huge contract (nice job, Warriors... real freaking nice) is too much for New Jersey or the Lakers to absorb with all the players they get. I tried to mess around with these teams and figure out a way to make it happen. No luck.
Thing is, I think the Nets and Lakers would both take him.... they could both use a shooter at the three. But the Nets wouldn't give up any of their young assets, and they basically have to trade everyone on their bench right now just to fit Odom and Radman. I think they'd like to have another wing besides Dunleavy to pair with Vince. They'd take him and Maurice Evans, but they can't afford it. The Lakers would love to have Dunleavy back up Walton, because he can shoot better and is still a decent passer. But then they can't get anyone else. Maybe another deal is in order....
I tried to see if the Lakers could trade Brian Cook instead of Radman, allowing New Jersey to pick up Cook, Odom, Dunleavy, and Evans, which would be a great deal for them. And they can, but then the Lakers can't get Francis and JoNeal. Unless they part with Farmar and the maybe-untouchable Bynum, and they won't do that after dumping Kwame and Odom. So they're stuck.
Once again, I don't see why they felt a need to sign Radman when Cook is basically the same player. For cheaper. This is why Kobe is pissed right now.
TRADE 5: MISFITS AND MYSTICS AND MEN
Here, a few teams can get rid of some people they don't want. Wally goes back to Minnesota, and a change of scenery could help these other guys.
BOSTON trades
Wally Sczerbiak, Sebastian Telfair to MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA trades
Rashad McCants, Mike James to CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND trades
Shannon Brown, Eric Snow to BOSTON
James could help out Cleveland with his shooting, even if they are happy with Daniel Gibson. He's a better backup than Damon Jones or Snow, who will mostly serve as a mentor to Boston's young points. That group will not include Telfair, who gets another chance to prove he can do something. McCants hasn't done anything, but Cleveland will take any shooter they can get. Brown gives Boston another two to try out next to Pierce. I think KG accepts Wally back after seeing how miserable he's been without a decent outside shooter. These teams all want to be rid of these guys, so why not exchange them?
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
Almost, though. Minnesota needs to give up more to get Wally's colosal salary (which they made, by the way) to fit. Yikes... how are they over the cap with this roster? Anyway, they can throw in Marko Jaric's terrible contract to Boston in exchange for taking Brian Scalabrine off the Celtics' hands. Boston cringes, but at least they get rid of two bad contracts for one. Justin Reed, thrown into the last Boston-Minnesota trade, is thrown back again. The Celtics liked him, so maybe they'll use him.
redesigned:
BOSTON trades
Brian Scalabrine, Sebastian Telfair, Wally Sczerbiak to MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA trades
Mike James, Rashad McCants to CLEVELAND, Justin Reed, Marko Jaric to BOSTON
CLEVELAND trades
Shannon Brown, Eric Snow to BOSTON
Good? Simmons will probably shoot himself if the C's spend a large amount of money for two point guards they won't use. But hey, they got rid of Scalabrine, Wally, and Shoot-em-up Telfair, and Ratliff will be gone soon. That's something.
UPDATE 6/15:
SO... I guess this is not going down with the Wolves trading Mike James to the Rockets. That wasn't a bad deal, because they could use anyone besides KG who could score down low, even if Juwon Howard is almost dead. Cleveland is porbably better off giving more minutes to Daniel Gibson anyway. He proved during these playoffs that he could be that guy who hits shots and defends. He's just what they needed, so if he keeps improving, they should be OK.
I still think Boston should think of a way to unload Wally, especially if they can get the Wolves interested again. Why not?
TRADE 6: ONE ON ONE
With Shawn Marion wanting big bucks and the keys to a franchise, and the Suns' ownership stalling, he needs to go. He finds a similarly disgruntled match in Ronnie Artest. Both teams are delighted to get an all star for their disappointed forwards. Sacramento builds around Marion in a more exciting offense, giving him, Bibby, Kevin Martin, and younger guys free reign to gun it. They might draft another wing after this and go small. Artest can play the four spot in Phoenix's gun-it offense, or next to Boris Diaw. He improves them defensively while not giving up too much offensively for Marion. In a rare star-for-star trade, I think both teams benefit.
SACRAMENTO trades Ron Artest to PHOENIX for Shawn Marion
TRADE MACHINE: NO!
Whoops. Marion is making significantly more. No wonder Phoenix wants him out. Okay, the Suns might like another rebounder to add depth, and they can throw in a late draft pick if the Kings want. Let's try this again....
SACRAMENTO trades
Ron Artest, Shareef Abdur-Rahim to PHOENIX for
Shawn Marion
OK. Reef's salary works, though I think the Suns would not want to pay him for the next 4 years. Maybe they deal him or Kurt Thomas after this. Sacramento, for the record, doesn't miss him.
Thursday, June 7, 2007
finals preview
I can't say much more than anyone already has. There's really not much debate going on in this series. It seems that everyone is picking San Antonio in 5 games or so, hoping that LeBron can come up with some huge games, but not really believing it. I'm in the same boat.
Spurs in 6.
Why six? They could conceivably sweep the Cavs. But even the Bulls let their series go to six games. You get to celebrate at home. I think, like some have suggested, that there will be a game or two where LeBron gets hot, and gets favorably foul calls, and the Cavs pull it off. But they won't have a realistic shot of winning the series, unless a TON of crazy things happen (injuries, meltdowns, Mike Brown learning to coach offense). I'd like to see it. But I think thsi is going to be like Sixers-Lakers... promising but they just aren't on the same level. Oh well. At least Cleveland is doing something again.
Spurs in 6.
Why six? They could conceivably sweep the Cavs. But even the Bulls let their series go to six games. You get to celebrate at home. I think, like some have suggested, that there will be a game or two where LeBron gets hot, and gets favorably foul calls, and the Cavs pull it off. But they won't have a realistic shot of winning the series, unless a TON of crazy things happen (injuries, meltdowns, Mike Brown learning to coach offense). I'd like to see it. But I think thsi is going to be like Sixers-Lakers... promising but they just aren't on the same level. Oh well. At least Cleveland is doing something again.
Friday, June 1, 2007
thank you, lebron
Now THAT's what we were hoping to see!
( I want to comment on Simmons' ridiculous Kobe trade ideas, but I'll have to wait).
( I want to comment on Simmons' ridiculous Kobe trade ideas, but I'll have to wait).
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