Sunday, February 24, 2008

the big break, reconsidered

Okay, now after the trades have been made and we can see where people are going, I can make some predictions and give grades out to all...

ATLANTA - great trade for Bibby. Their bench is a little thin now, but they can easily grab a playoff spot without any injuries. I see them winning 40 games and losing in the first round... but it's a step.

BOSTON - just want to see if Sam Cassell does get cut and if they move. They're going to win 60 easy, but will they get past Detroit and/or Cleveland?

CHARLOTTE - no moves. They need another big guy in the draft to get anywhere. No playoffs.

CHICAGO - some have killed them for this trade, but at least they didn't give up any of their young stars. They can see who plays well for the rest of the season and then make moves. Yes, they're likely stuck with Larry Hughes, but they didn't commit to Ben Gordon anyway. This isn't over for them; we'll see how the summer goes. As for the playoffs now, I kinda doubt it, but they could sneak in there.

CLEVELAND - the busiest team completely changed itself... for the better? Ben Wallace brings more D but less O than Drew Gooden. Wally can shoot, but can't guard anyone. I guess they want to give Pavlovic more minutes. I do love Delonte West on this team to fill in for Gibson, but this is a weird trade: they go down in pure talent but get pieces who fit better. At least they can say that they'll still have lots of expiring contracts next year if it doesn't work (Damon Jones, Snow, Wally, Joe Smith). They could try again, and they qualmed LB for now.

Do they make the finals again? I like Boston and Detroit better, but I give them more of a shot than I did.

DALLAS - I like the Kidd trade. I do. I just think that he and Jason Terry in the backcourt is better than what they had. Losing Diop was bad, but they could pick someone up off waivers soon, and they wanted to give Brandon Bass more time. Depending on matchups, they could lose in the first round or make it all the way. I think it will be in the middle.

DENVER - so glad they didn't make the Artest trade. They need to see if they can salvage JR Smith or Nene or K Mart first. And they should play Kleiza at the four. They're going to struggle with the playoffs, but they could make it in.

DETROIT - shrewd moves have pushed them right back near the top. They now have the depth they haven't lately, and they'll be more focused than they were the past two years. Cleveland and Boston will push them, but I'd say they are the slight faves in the East.

GOLDEN STATE - no moves other than getting Webber, who seems a little redundant. They will once again be a dangerous low seed, but nothing more. They could miss the postseason if they can't beat out Denver and Houston.

HOUSTON - some small moves that helped, but not much in changes. They just want to get healthy. I think they make it, but this may not be the year they finally get out of the first round, unless they get a good matchup.

INDIANA - surprised that they did not trade JO. He has been hurt, but they need to retool. They're stuck in the bad place between playoffs and really starting over. They could sneak in, but would that change anything? This summer, they will have to do something.

LA CLIPPERS - no moves, still waiting for word on Brand and Livingston. They have to make some decisions soon. A nice pick will help.

LA LAKERS - the best run team this year. Who could see Mitch Kupchak as the exec of the year? Gasol will help them stay afloat, but I don't think they make the finals this year. They're still growing, and the other west powers have loaded teams. But next year, and for the next few years, they might be the faves.

MEMPHIS - just end this franchise already. They don't care.

MIAMI - nice rebuilding kick-start with the Shaq trade. With a top draft pick, they can fill out some spaces quickly. They can take a look at Earl Barron, Alex Johnson, and Marcus Banks, in the meantime.

MILWAUKEE - they want to win now, so they will push for the playoffs, but they just don't have enough. Too many perimeter guys, no defense, no toughness. They might be better off trading some people, but they'll wait.

MINNESOTA - slolwy building and seeing who works. Gerald Green wasn't, so getting rid of him was okay. They'll get some contracts off the books, and another high pick, and they can start to put something together ... eventually.

NEW JERSEY - they needed to make the Kidd trade, and they have a good nuclues now. They can draft a scoring big man and maybe trade Vince in the summer, and they'll be okay. THey should shut everyone down for now.

NEW ORLEANS - a few nice moves to tweak the roster, and they've been great. I still can't see them making the finals or even the conference finals, and I suspect they will cool down, but it has been a great year no matter what.

NEW YORK - typical Isiah: this team is ready to kill each other, he has a lot of options, and he does nothing. I want an implosion. At least they'll finally be keeping their lottery pick.

ORLANDO - surprised that they did not add a real two guard or power forward, but they like their system for now. I guess. They can probably make it out of the first round, but no more. They need to address some spots this summer.

PHILLY - my boys did nothing, even though I was leaning towards trading Andre Miller and saving space/draft picks and losing. Now, they have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. Is it worth it? I don't know. I think they need another good big man, and they're not getting it this way.

PHOENIX - we'll have to see in the playoffs if the Shaq trade works, but I'm more worried about them giving up all the draft picks. they could use them now -they're lacking depth. I think it's a toos up between them and the Spurs again, with the Lakers and Mavs hunting.

PORTLAND - they've cooled down, but will be a force in the next few years. A dynamic force.

SACRAMENTO - the Bibby trade had to be kind of disappointing, considering they got one decent chip (Shelden) and didn't give up contracts. Atlanta might have taken more people, but they didn't have anyone to give. Also, they kept Artest, which is still an unknown. A late lottery pick won't help; they need to make more deals.

SAN ANTONIO - they made an excellent deal in picking up Kurt Thomas. They might miss Barry's shooting, but they could still bring him back or grab someone else. They should be the faves.... but how do they deal with all these tough teams?

SEATTLE - they're creating space and getting draft picks to build around Durant. That's smart. Too bad their owners are crooks. Seattle, a great city, will not get to see these kids mature.

TORONTO - a small move, but they have a solid team. They could use a real wing soon, but they get by for now. They could make it to the second round, but that's it.

UTAH - the Korver move was great for all. That's all they really needed. This team could go far if not for everyone else. I don't know if they can take down SAN or PHX or even DAL, but they might be able to get pretty far.

WASHINGTON - no moves, as they will wait to see if they sign Jamison and Arenas. They'll make the playoffs but not go anywhere.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

...think about these too....

So many possibilities! I worked out so much stuff to be done in the next two days.

Some important issues.....


INDIANA and CHICAGO

After I made that trade work today, I realized that Chicago has another possibility, like Dallas did with Van Horn, in a sign-and-trade with P.J. Brown, who hasn't played this season. But it seems like they've had the chance to use that a couple times, and either he's said no or it didn't work. So I don't know if they can do that now. I do know that the Pacers would love it if the Bulls would take on Jamaal Tinsley's contract, and the Bulls would need someone to back up Chris Duhon after that trade. Maybe they could work it out.

RONNIE RON

Lots of specualtion about Artest lingers, and Denver seems like an interested candidate. Here's the trade many have heard:

SACTO deals Artest to DENVER for Eduardo Najera and Linus Kleiza

I don't think the Nugs need that; they need to just hope that Kenyon Martin and Nene get healthy and not take on any more big contracts. UNLESS....

ARTEST POSS 1

Kings deal Artest and Kenny Thomas to DENVER for J.R. Smith, Nene, and Eduardo Najera

If the Nuggs can convince the Kings to take Nene instead of Kleiza, then I think the Kings may want some help. First, they get rid of Thomas' contract, which helps. Then, they get cap relief with Najera and a chance to maybe give Smith something. Who knows if he can pan out, but he's still young and a good shooter.

Of course, Nene and Artest can be traded straight-up, but do the Kings take that risk? If they accept Nene's big contract with his injury history, they'll probably want more.

----------------

But I think that the Nuggs should make another move (more on that later) and that the Kings should do what I've been saying for a while: send Ron home. It might be the only way to ensure his sanity, and he can help the Knicks immensely, since he plays D and he will allow David Lee to play more.

ARTEST POSS 2

SAC deals Artest and Thomas to NEW YORK for Zach Randolph and Fred Jones

This is much better. I know, it's an exchange of two head cases, and peopel are leery about getting either one of them. But Randolph is pissed with Eddy Curry (yes, Isiah, we told you it wouldn't work) and wants out..... he could be the guy in Sacto. Artest gives New York swagger, and much improved D, since trading Randolph will free up more time for Lee and Renaldo Balkman. I've been pushing for this to happen all season, and I know the Kings now want to take a look at Shelden Williams, but Zach is a proven scorer and it would give them a real post threat for once. And they get rid of Thomas and some cap space. New York will always take on big contracts to get what they want. Sacto can take advantage of that.

DENVER

So if Denver doesn't take Artest, then what? I think they just need to give Kleiza some time at the four if everyone is hurt. But I do think there's an easy trade for them:

DENVER trades Najera and Von Wafer to MINNESOTA for Marko Jaric

This isn't much but it makes a lot of sense. Minnesota has been dying to get rid of Jaric, ever since they made that God-awful trade. The Nuggs need someone who can handle a little bit, ot let Iverson play off the ball, who is a shooter. Jaric hasn't been a great starter, but I think he'll fit well next to Iverson as a tall point in some lineups.

Now... this next one almost went through, but it's just a littlllllllllllllle bit too much for Denver. Don't they have more people to trade? All they need is to bring back someone they cut and include them. This one gives Denver more rebounding and Minnesota even more cap relief:

DENVER trades Najera, Wafer, and Yakhouba Diawara (plus a little extra) to MINN for Jaric and Mark Madsen

Man, that would be a great easy trade for both these teams. The Wolves would get so much relief this summer with Jaric and Madsen gone, plus the Infamous Horrible Theo Ratliff contract finally over. I hope Denver is listening.

SAM I AM

Sadly, the Celtics cannot get Sam Cassell through any kind of logical trade. All the guys they can afford to trade are too cheap, and L.A. isn't going to take a multi-year deal for an expiring one, even if it's not that much. I was wondering if they could negotiate some sort of under-the-table deal where the Celts send Gabe Pruitt and a first round pick to the Clips for a couple second rounders in the far future.... with the understanding that the Clippers will release Cassell at some point. I think the Commish would find that too obvious. Alas.

LEBRON IS ANGRY

Is he? Everyone assumes so, after his team failed to land Bibby, then saw the not-too-impressive deal that actually worked. He did campaign for Kidd or someone big to help.

Since everything he does is being monitored closely, it's hard to believe that he likes this team. The pressure on Danny Ferry to get him a supporting cast is mounting with every scowl. Yet, I think Ferry might be able to convince him that now is not the time. Cleveland doesn't have much to trade with right now unless they give up key players, and I think that was why they didn't get Bibby (Sacramento needed at least one potential big man, and they wanted to keep Gooden, and I don't blame them).

After the season, however, Cleveland suddenly has some pull. Eric Snow, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones will all be in the last year of their deals NEXT year, so they will be attractive come summertime and into next season. Cleveland will have almost 16 million in expiring contracts next year, which can get them some big time help from teams looking for cap relief. Right now, they have Ira Newble for 3 mil and Shannon Brown for 1. That's not gonna be enough unless they part with Gooden or Varejao, and those guys are too important.

And no one will take on the contracts of Hughes or Illgauskas. Sorry.

So maybe he can get LeBron to calm down a little and promise him a very big splash in the summer or at the beginning of next year. BUT THEN..... hasn't LeBron been killing himself this year???? He looks great, he's trying hard, and he's more dedicated than ever. Telling him to wait is tough. He's playing better than just about everyone.

So if Ferry feels the heat to do something now, here are two ideas of how to help:

CAVS POSS 1: SAVE J.J.!!!

ORLANDO trades J. J. Redick, James Augustine, and Keith Bogans to CLEVELAND for Sasha Pavlovic and Cedric Simmons, plus a future first rounder

Orlando keeps saying that they will not trade Redick. But then they don't play him, even though they need shooting. I think they need an upgrade at two guard over the redundant Bogans-Mo Evans combo. I also think they won't play Redick because he can't be a full two guard, but they have three point guards and he's not that either. He is like a Steve Kerr, a small guard who can shoot but needs to be in a system where he's not the main passer.

Cleveland is that place. They wanted Bibby because he's not a pure point - he's a good shooter who plays off other passers. Cleveland has two guys who can handle; they want someone who can shoot. That's how Dan Gibson made it. With him and Redick in the fold, they'd have two guys who could fill that position and shoot and not have to worry about handling. Bogans is insurance and will give them a little cap relief this year.

Meanwhile, Orlando gets Pavlovic, a good shooter with more size who isn't getting time in Cleveland. They might also take a look at Simmons, since they need a forward next to Dwight who can board. And they'll get a draft pick. I like this, especially if Orlando is not serious about their claim to keep Redick.

Now....

If LeBron really is adamant about getting someone now, and he wants that someone to be a true point like Jason Kidd, he can call up my old friends in Philly.

CAVS POSS 2: RETURN OF ANDRE

CAVS trade Ced Simmons, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown, draft pick, and Damon Jones to PHILLY for Andre Miller

The Sixers have been waffling on the decision to keep Miller or trade him. They are in a youth movement, and they want to give Louis Williams more time, but Miller has been good this year. They have a shot at the playoffs, somehow, but that's mostly because the conference sucks. Will they make a deal?

I would take this one. They get some cap relief now, and then more later (as some old terrible ones expire). They get two guys they might want to look at in Simmons and Brown, former first rounders, and then another draft pick. It's something. If they're just going to let Miller go after next year anyway, they might as well get something for him.... this is the last remnant of the trade that ended Iverson's time here, you know.

They didn't give up last year, but maybe now they'll see that they need a star player to really get ahead. I'd rather see them get a top three pick than win 36 games and get swept in the first round. That's not getting them anywhere.... they need a big impact guy soon. Give the kids time and let them rough it out. Atlanta and Chicago need to make the playoffs much more than we do.

For the Cavs, I guess it works. If LeBron likes it, I have to think it helps Cleveland. I'd use Miller and Pavlovic together, then bring in Hughes and Gibson. They'd have depth, for sure, but I don't know if it fits that system. Maybe LB is tired of doing everything and wants to play off the ball more. This could do that.

That's all I have for now, although I have a feeling there could be some post-deadline cuts and moves that will help teams.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

think about it.....

Indiana trades Jermaine O'Neal to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas, plus cap filler (Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin). Who says no to this deal? John Paxson gets the big man he should have gotten earlier, and Hinrich's value would probably rise in Indiana.... or Utah.... for, ummmm, no reason......

Indiana has a nice young line up, and they position themselves for the inevitable Eric Gordon pick in June. Chicago promises O'Neal tthey will keep Deng and Gordon. With new optimism, everyone wins.

It's much better than Vince Carter.

Friday, February 15, 2008

quick look at the break

Season projections, based on current standings:

EAST

1. Boston, 67 wins
2. Detroit, 61
3. Orlando, 50
4. Cleveland, 46
5. Toronto, 45
6. Washington, 39
7. New Jersey, 36
8. PHILLY ???!?!, 36

9. Atlanta, 35

(Chicago and Indiana are a few behind)

WEST

1. New Orleans, 58
2. Phoenix, 57
3. LA Lakers, 55
4. Utah, 52 (for divison leader)
5. San Antonio, 54
6. Dallas, 54
7,8,9. three way tie:
Golden State
Houston
Denver, all 50

10. Portland, 44


........................

Crazy, huh?

I don't expect all this to last, and I don't want to make any more predictions before the trade deadline next week (still waiting about the nutty Jersey-Dallas situation), but has it really gotten so bad that 50 wins is needed just to make the playoffs in the West, while the Sixers can sneak in? Can I even be proud of them if they make it with like 35 wins?

What a strange break. I need some time to think about what's going on.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

rats off to ya...?

I was waiting for the break but a flurry of activity forced me to respond.

Rats off to ya, people. Congrats and jeers around:

ALL STAR PICKS: The Eastern Conference picked everyone I did, so I guess I can't argue with them. That's got to be a first.

Out west, I was surprised only by David West making it. I know the Hornets are doing great, better than expected, and the game is in New Orleans, where they are trying desperately to promote everything basketball.... but still, I didn't even have him on my short list. To see him and Brandon Roy make it over Baron Davis, who has reinvented himself and kept Golden State going this season, is awful. Not that those two don't deserve it; they're doing good. But BD has been great and he might not get many more chances.

That's my only real gripe this year... but if someone goes out, as likely, he should be the first one in.

GASOL TO THE LAKERS

This is causing a frenzy out here. I'm still not sure how this happened. Memphis was talking to Chicago and Boston last year about moving Gasol for some decent players... and now they get a point guard they don't need and draft picks... and nothing else???

I've had it with Memphis's ownership. They had a 50 win team and did nothing. They gave Gasol good money for what he did and then complained he was too expensive.

That team needs to go. If they don't want to compete, send everyone home and fold the franchise. Don't move them to another city; we're running out of places. Chuck them and go back to the old system of 4 divisions.

As for the Lakers, I was a little surprised that they would make a deal for a big man after Andrew Bynum came through.... but then again, how could they say no? They would have had to surrender Bynum to get Kidd, or KG, or even Jermaine O'Neal, and now they get a pretty good big man without giving him up - or Lamar Odom. Amazing. Again, was this really the best Memphis could do? Or just the cheapest?

I thought maybe this would hold Bynum back a little, but then again, he's still learning on offense. Gasol can handle that and help rebounding. Gasol is also, I hear, more comfortable not having to bang as much, and he's a good apsser, so I think he'll fit into the triangle. It will be interesting to see if he and Odom can handle not being the first or second options all the time. If they can all mesh, that might be the scariest front line in the league, and soon.

Rats off to ya, Mitch. You made me look stupid this year.

SHAQ TO THE SUNS

[ahem]

Dear Robert Sarver,

you could have just kept Kurt Thomas.

Yours,

J. "Shawn Bradley will never die" L.


Miami has to be thrilled to get someone decent for Shaq. Marion will have an easier time in the East and can wreck people. They can go small with him and Haslem down low until they find a new center.

I don't necessarily hate this move for Phoenix, because they've always wanted a real big man who can help. But is that Shaq? Now? They need defense and shot blocking.... he can knock people over..... umm......

They knew they were going to dump Marion shortly, but they've pretty much closed the window on any long term plans. Nash, Shaq, and Raja all have 3 years and then they're probably gone. Amare and Barbosa have one more after that to see if Phoenix can regroup. So, this probably did add a sense of urgency, but will it work? Can these styles mesh?

Last month, I predicted that the Mvas might have won a title if they kept Nash and traded Dirk for Shaq. That, however, was Shaq three years ago. I think he could be a nice help, especially since he's not the first option. He could also ruin their offensive chemistry. We'll see.

Rats off to you, Riles. And Steve Kerr, for having some guts (though, again, I'd rather have Marion, Banks, and Kurt Thomas, despite the extra cash). I expect Miami to see if Banks and Earl Barron can do anything. They've got time.

Now for Jason Kidd.......