Yipes. What is going on here? Basketball in Atlanta is suddenly alive again, if it ever was. The Lakers had little trouble adjusting to the mountains. The Hornets, whom (like many) I didn't expect much out of, would not let the Mavs get close.
And then there are the two series I really didn't see coming - Spurs v Suns and Sixers v Pistons. Much like last year, I was ready to bet that the winner of a Spurs-Suns series would take it all. After an epic game 1, it looked like this would come down to seven intense battles. But even though the Suns were close, they never really got over that, and suddenly, they're done.
The Sixers, meanwhile, stole the first game with no real explanation, then got the third one at home to go up. Improbably, they were up big in game 4 and looking to get Detroit in the death zone when the Pistons finally woke up. Now, Detroit seems to be attentive and in control, after a big win tonight. But still, the hometowners are making a statement, and they are closer to being good again than we imagined.
So now what? Half of my finals prediction is trash, and I'm not feeling so certain about anything else. The Hornets, Magic and the Lakers have impressed me so much, while the Jazz and Pistons are struggling. And the Celtics? Tsk, tsk.
Well, here's my new call for the next rounds:
BOS over CLE in 7
DET over ORL in 7
SAN over NO in 6
LAL over UT in 7
SAN over LAL in 6
BOS over DET in 6
BOS over SAN in 7
Yeah... I don't like it, and I think the possibility of a retro Celtics-Lakers finals is rising everyday, but I am sticking to my belief that no Andrew Bynum is going to kill them at some point. It would kill them against Utah if the Jazz had anyone who could remotely stay with Kobe. That series will be good, but I can't see the Jazz taking any road games.
I've been moving towards the Celtics for a while, and naturally, they look angry and confused now. I think they will pull out of it.... and I think Detroit is way too unfocused for such a veteran team. I don't think the Spurs will have enough to repeat after that brutal road. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to the Lakers or maybe even Hornets.
This could all change shortly.......
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Friday, April 25, 2008
the 2007-08 NBA awards
As promised, my awards for a stunning and fantastic regular season. All of these were tough and I was delighted with the great play this year.
MOST IMPROVED - Hedo Turkoglu, Magic
2. Jose Calderon, Raptors
3. Louis Williams, Sixers
4. Linus Kleiza, Nuggets
5. Sasha Vujacic, Lakers
Turkoglu is an easy choice as someone who really stepped it up this season. He started out with promise in Sacramento, but never was more than a decent sub. When Orlando signed Rashard Lewis, it seemed like he would come off the bench or be a distant third option. But he was huge for them, and it was his play from outside that really helped Dwight Howard make that team decent.
Calderon did a lot after T. J. Ford went down, showing maybe he should be the guy in charge. Williams came on as a terror on a surprisingly good second unit for the Sixers. Kleiza found a nieche in Denver, so much that they wouldn't include him in any deals for Ron Artest. Vujacic redeemed himself after a few years of pretty much nothing for the Lakers, and filled in nicely with Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza out.
6TH MAN - Manu Ginobli, Spurs
2. Jason Terry, Mavs
3. Leandro Barbosa, Suns
4. James Posey, Celtics
5. Jason Maxiell, Pistons
This is another easy choice as Ginobli is an all-star but likes to come off the bench for San Antonio. He carried this team at points and is good enough to be on a high all-league team. Terry does well in small lineups in Dallas, with Kidd now handing off to him. Barbosa, last year's winner, slipped a little bit in numbers but is still crucial for them. Posey was a bargain save for the Celtics after their big three left them no money for a bench. He pretty much kept that second unit together until they brought in more people. Maxiell is the only real low-post presence for the Pistons, and he's key to their success.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Kevin Garnett, Celtics
2. Marcus Camby, Nuggets
3. Shane Battier, Rockets
3. Bruce Bowen, Spurs
5. Rajon Rondo, Celtics
Everyone is going for Garnett now because of his impact on the Celtics, and also because they want to recognize him in a year that would get MVP many seasons, but not now. He's never won it, either, so he's got sentiment. Normally I wouldn't, but I have to admit that he has transformed this team. Their defense has been the strength of their turnaround, and it's mostly due to his intensity. Also, no one else has risen up.
Camby, last year's winner, loses points because his team can't guard anyone (even though people were trying to say that they did because they play so fast.... well, the Lakers are exposing them). Battier and Bowen are great wing defenders, and Rondo is another factor for Boston because of his long arms and quickness.
ALL DEFENSE FIRST TEAM
Garnett, Camby, Battier, Rondo, Bowen
ALL DEFENSE SECOND TEAM
Ron Artest, Kings
Josh Smith, Hawks
Dwight Howard, Magic
Chris Paul, Hornets
Quintin Ross, Clippers
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Kevin Durant, Sonics
2. Al Horford, Hawks
3. Al Thornton, Clippers
I'm only putting three because there's no one else. In fact, it's mostly a two man race. Horford has put up a double-double and been the only big man for the Hawks, who are in the playoffs, so he has a lot going for him. But Durant is better. People are turning on him because he takes a lot of bad shots and his team is horrible. But for all the drama going on in the great city of Seattle, and the terrible team he's been dealt, I think he's handled it pretty well. Sure, he gets a lot of shots, but why not? Who else is going to score for this team? Any rookie that can average 20 a game has to be a major candidate, no matter what. Few guys can get to that level anymore. He's the first option already and he's scored because he has to. Look at how few rookies have gotten to that mark over the past decade. I give him the edge, but I do appreciate Horford's play.
ALL ROOKIE FIRST TEAM
Durant, Horford, Thornton
Luis Scola, Rockets
Juan Carlos Navarro, Grizzlies
ALL ROOKIE SECOND TEAM
Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Jeff Green, Sonics
Carl Landry, Rockets
Thaddeous Young, Sixers
Jamario Moon, Raptors
COACH OF THE YEAR - Byron Scott, Hornets
2. Stan Van Gundy, Magic
3. Maurice Cheeks, Sixers
4. Doc Rivers, Celtics
5. Rick Adelman, Rockets
Remember when I said that the Hornets and Grizzlies would be in the hunt for the last few playoff spots, and I thought the Grizzlies had a slight edge? Yup. I feel stupid. It's not a huge surprise that the Hornets broke through to the playoffs, but to flirt with the best record in the conference? When the conference is as tough as ever? No one saw that. Even at the all-star break, most figured they would slow down. They didn't. Chris Paul obviously gets a lot of credit, but I think Scott did a great job with a roster that has some holes. They surprised everyone the most and he should win this easily.
Van Gundy made the most of a second chance and created just the right offense for their talents. Cheeks, whom I thought was brought in to be loyal to the organization as they went through rough times, managed to get a lot out of this unknown squad. I couldn't be prouder of him, no matter how they do this round. Rivers won't get much credit for the Cletics' turnaround, but he hasn't ruined anything yet. Adelman managed to win more games than Jeff Van Gundy did, even with the usual injuries still haunting Houston, and a dramatic change of style.
MVP - Kobe Bryant, Lakers
2. Chris Paul, Hornets
3. LeBron James, Cavaliers
4. Kevin Garnett, Celtics
I can't believe I'm writing this, because I'm tired of all the Kobe-fawning the media have displayed over the past few years out here, but I like him. It may have been a terrible thing, but his tirades lit a fire under this team and he wisely came back and bought into them. Yes, this roster has improved a lot over the past year, but then he also carried this team with Bynum missing a lot of time, and Gasol out in some spots too. I think about this: before the Gasol trade, Bynum was giving them some offense and a lot of D. Then he got hurt. They still played fairly well. Then they traded for Gasol, who gave them good offense but not a ton of D. They never had both of these guys on the court at the same time to complement each other. They went through changes and had more injuries than people realize. They made a lot of lineup changes. Through it all, though, Kobe stayed vicious and they won 57 games in a ridiculously tough conference. I think that counts as something.
In any other year, Paul might have gotten it. Actually, so would have LeBron, and he's gonna be third despite an unfathomable stat line. Paul is just a hair under Kobe for keeping a team no one expected to be great. As Bill Simmons, John Hollinger, and others have said, he might be having the best season of any point guard ever. He controls everything there and sets everyone up. David West and Tyson Chandler owe their surges to him. That roster doesn't look impressive, but he carried them to more wins than they've ever had, in a tough year. The only thing holding him back? I don't know how far he can go in the playoffs, whereas I expect the Lakers to do something (and dominate the next few years as well). If he proves himself now, (he's off to a good start), he might change my mind.
LeBron's unbelievable season loses a lot for his team not being that great in the weaker half, but he could still go off in the playoffs and scare everyone. Garnett, for as much as he has done, just can't compete with these great seasons. He's not even the person to fear most for opponents offensively on his own team. He's already got an MVP, so I think he'll be okay, especially if he gets the ring.
Think about it this way: if the Lakers had traded Kobe for, say, Ben Wallace, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, and Ben Gordon, how terrible would they be? Terrible. Beyond terrible. They would be the first-half Bulls without Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng... and look how the Bulls turned out. If the Hornets didn't have Paul, they would probably be awful, but pending on what point guard they had. The Cavs would obviously suck without LeBron because they built the whole team around him, but they only won 45 games with him. The Celtics, meanwhile, would probably still be decent if they hadn't made the KG trade - not great, but a playoff team with Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes helping the guys they have now. Does this make any sense? I don't know. But I think the scenarios of people not being there favors Kobe.
It's not sentiment or a lifetime achievement award; I just think he's broken through. I hope that's enough. If not, well, there are three other guys I can accept. This is a great year and they all deserve recognition.
One note for my all league team: I couldn't decide between Duncan and Howard as my starting center. Both were so good, and Duncan is usually listed as a forward, but I put him in at center all the time. I decided to go with both. It's a good year. We can have 6 people on the first team. This also means that we don't have 3 east guys and 2 west guys, which seemed a little unfair.
ALL NBA FIRST TEAM
Kobe, Paul, LeBron, Garnett
Dwight Howard, Magic
Tim Duncan, Spurs
ALL NBA SECOND TEAM
Carlos Boozer, Jazz
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs
Amare Stoudemire, Suns
Steve Nash, Suns
Chuancey Billups, Pistons
ALL NBA THIRD TEAM
Paul Pierce, Celtics
Tracy McGrady, Rockets
Chris Bosh, Raptors
Allen Iverson, Nuggets
Manu Ginobli, Spurs
HONORABLE MENTION
Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
Antawn Jamison, Wizards
That's all. More playoff notes coming soon.
MOST IMPROVED - Hedo Turkoglu, Magic
2. Jose Calderon, Raptors
3. Louis Williams, Sixers
4. Linus Kleiza, Nuggets
5. Sasha Vujacic, Lakers
Turkoglu is an easy choice as someone who really stepped it up this season. He started out with promise in Sacramento, but never was more than a decent sub. When Orlando signed Rashard Lewis, it seemed like he would come off the bench or be a distant third option. But he was huge for them, and it was his play from outside that really helped Dwight Howard make that team decent.
Calderon did a lot after T. J. Ford went down, showing maybe he should be the guy in charge. Williams came on as a terror on a surprisingly good second unit for the Sixers. Kleiza found a nieche in Denver, so much that they wouldn't include him in any deals for Ron Artest. Vujacic redeemed himself after a few years of pretty much nothing for the Lakers, and filled in nicely with Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza out.
6TH MAN - Manu Ginobli, Spurs
2. Jason Terry, Mavs
3. Leandro Barbosa, Suns
4. James Posey, Celtics
5. Jason Maxiell, Pistons
This is another easy choice as Ginobli is an all-star but likes to come off the bench for San Antonio. He carried this team at points and is good enough to be on a high all-league team. Terry does well in small lineups in Dallas, with Kidd now handing off to him. Barbosa, last year's winner, slipped a little bit in numbers but is still crucial for them. Posey was a bargain save for the Celtics after their big three left them no money for a bench. He pretty much kept that second unit together until they brought in more people. Maxiell is the only real low-post presence for the Pistons, and he's key to their success.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Kevin Garnett, Celtics
2. Marcus Camby, Nuggets
3. Shane Battier, Rockets
3. Bruce Bowen, Spurs
5. Rajon Rondo, Celtics
Everyone is going for Garnett now because of his impact on the Celtics, and also because they want to recognize him in a year that would get MVP many seasons, but not now. He's never won it, either, so he's got sentiment. Normally I wouldn't, but I have to admit that he has transformed this team. Their defense has been the strength of their turnaround, and it's mostly due to his intensity. Also, no one else has risen up.
Camby, last year's winner, loses points because his team can't guard anyone (even though people were trying to say that they did because they play so fast.... well, the Lakers are exposing them). Battier and Bowen are great wing defenders, and Rondo is another factor for Boston because of his long arms and quickness.
ALL DEFENSE FIRST TEAM
Garnett, Camby, Battier, Rondo, Bowen
ALL DEFENSE SECOND TEAM
Ron Artest, Kings
Josh Smith, Hawks
Dwight Howard, Magic
Chris Paul, Hornets
Quintin Ross, Clippers
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Kevin Durant, Sonics
2. Al Horford, Hawks
3. Al Thornton, Clippers
I'm only putting three because there's no one else. In fact, it's mostly a two man race. Horford has put up a double-double and been the only big man for the Hawks, who are in the playoffs, so he has a lot going for him. But Durant is better. People are turning on him because he takes a lot of bad shots and his team is horrible. But for all the drama going on in the great city of Seattle, and the terrible team he's been dealt, I think he's handled it pretty well. Sure, he gets a lot of shots, but why not? Who else is going to score for this team? Any rookie that can average 20 a game has to be a major candidate, no matter what. Few guys can get to that level anymore. He's the first option already and he's scored because he has to. Look at how few rookies have gotten to that mark over the past decade. I give him the edge, but I do appreciate Horford's play.
ALL ROOKIE FIRST TEAM
Durant, Horford, Thornton
Luis Scola, Rockets
Juan Carlos Navarro, Grizzlies
ALL ROOKIE SECOND TEAM
Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Jeff Green, Sonics
Carl Landry, Rockets
Thaddeous Young, Sixers
Jamario Moon, Raptors
COACH OF THE YEAR - Byron Scott, Hornets
2. Stan Van Gundy, Magic
3. Maurice Cheeks, Sixers
4. Doc Rivers, Celtics
5. Rick Adelman, Rockets
Remember when I said that the Hornets and Grizzlies would be in the hunt for the last few playoff spots, and I thought the Grizzlies had a slight edge? Yup. I feel stupid. It's not a huge surprise that the Hornets broke through to the playoffs, but to flirt with the best record in the conference? When the conference is as tough as ever? No one saw that. Even at the all-star break, most figured they would slow down. They didn't. Chris Paul obviously gets a lot of credit, but I think Scott did a great job with a roster that has some holes. They surprised everyone the most and he should win this easily.
Van Gundy made the most of a second chance and created just the right offense for their talents. Cheeks, whom I thought was brought in to be loyal to the organization as they went through rough times, managed to get a lot out of this unknown squad. I couldn't be prouder of him, no matter how they do this round. Rivers won't get much credit for the Cletics' turnaround, but he hasn't ruined anything yet. Adelman managed to win more games than Jeff Van Gundy did, even with the usual injuries still haunting Houston, and a dramatic change of style.
MVP - Kobe Bryant, Lakers
2. Chris Paul, Hornets
3. LeBron James, Cavaliers
4. Kevin Garnett, Celtics
I can't believe I'm writing this, because I'm tired of all the Kobe-fawning the media have displayed over the past few years out here, but I like him. It may have been a terrible thing, but his tirades lit a fire under this team and he wisely came back and bought into them. Yes, this roster has improved a lot over the past year, but then he also carried this team with Bynum missing a lot of time, and Gasol out in some spots too. I think about this: before the Gasol trade, Bynum was giving them some offense and a lot of D. Then he got hurt. They still played fairly well. Then they traded for Gasol, who gave them good offense but not a ton of D. They never had both of these guys on the court at the same time to complement each other. They went through changes and had more injuries than people realize. They made a lot of lineup changes. Through it all, though, Kobe stayed vicious and they won 57 games in a ridiculously tough conference. I think that counts as something.
In any other year, Paul might have gotten it. Actually, so would have LeBron, and he's gonna be third despite an unfathomable stat line. Paul is just a hair under Kobe for keeping a team no one expected to be great. As Bill Simmons, John Hollinger, and others have said, he might be having the best season of any point guard ever. He controls everything there and sets everyone up. David West and Tyson Chandler owe their surges to him. That roster doesn't look impressive, but he carried them to more wins than they've ever had, in a tough year. The only thing holding him back? I don't know how far he can go in the playoffs, whereas I expect the Lakers to do something (and dominate the next few years as well). If he proves himself now, (he's off to a good start), he might change my mind.
LeBron's unbelievable season loses a lot for his team not being that great in the weaker half, but he could still go off in the playoffs and scare everyone. Garnett, for as much as he has done, just can't compete with these great seasons. He's not even the person to fear most for opponents offensively on his own team. He's already got an MVP, so I think he'll be okay, especially if he gets the ring.
Think about it this way: if the Lakers had traded Kobe for, say, Ben Wallace, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, and Ben Gordon, how terrible would they be? Terrible. Beyond terrible. They would be the first-half Bulls without Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng... and look how the Bulls turned out. If the Hornets didn't have Paul, they would probably be awful, but pending on what point guard they had. The Cavs would obviously suck without LeBron because they built the whole team around him, but they only won 45 games with him. The Celtics, meanwhile, would probably still be decent if they hadn't made the KG trade - not great, but a playoff team with Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes helping the guys they have now. Does this make any sense? I don't know. But I think the scenarios of people not being there favors Kobe.
It's not sentiment or a lifetime achievement award; I just think he's broken through. I hope that's enough. If not, well, there are three other guys I can accept. This is a great year and they all deserve recognition.
One note for my all league team: I couldn't decide between Duncan and Howard as my starting center. Both were so good, and Duncan is usually listed as a forward, but I put him in at center all the time. I decided to go with both. It's a good year. We can have 6 people on the first team. This also means that we don't have 3 east guys and 2 west guys, which seemed a little unfair.
ALL NBA FIRST TEAM
Kobe, Paul, LeBron, Garnett
Dwight Howard, Magic
Tim Duncan, Spurs
ALL NBA SECOND TEAM
Carlos Boozer, Jazz
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs
Amare Stoudemire, Suns
Steve Nash, Suns
Chuancey Billups, Pistons
ALL NBA THIRD TEAM
Paul Pierce, Celtics
Tracy McGrady, Rockets
Chris Bosh, Raptors
Allen Iverson, Nuggets
Manu Ginobli, Spurs
HONORABLE MENTION
Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
Antawn Jamison, Wizards
That's all. More playoff notes coming soon.
Friday, April 18, 2008
this is the end
The end of the season came, and it didn't get any less crazy. I hate to see Phoenix and San Antonio battle it out in the first round, with the top half of the West bracket looking kinda weak. BUt that's how it is. So here are my picks (awards coming later).....
FIRST ROUND WEST
Lakers over Denver in 6
Jazz over Rockets in 7
Suns over Spurs in 7
Hornets over Mavs in 7
EAST
Celtics over Hawks in 4
Cavs over Wizards in 7
Magic over Raptors in 7
Pistons over Sixers in 5
SECOND ROUND WEST
Lakers over Jazz in 7
Suns over Hornets in 6
EAST
Celtics over Cavs in 6
Pistons over Magic in 6
CONF FINALS
Suns over Lakers in 6
Pistons over Celtics in 7
FINALS
Suns over Pistons in 6
Yeah. I picked it before the season, and I'm sticking with it. I think the Celtics will probably win it all now, but I'm not gonna change it. Besides, who reads this?
FIRST ROUND WEST
Lakers over Denver in 6
Jazz over Rockets in 7
Suns over Spurs in 7
Hornets over Mavs in 7
EAST
Celtics over Hawks in 4
Cavs over Wizards in 7
Magic over Raptors in 7
Pistons over Sixers in 5
SECOND ROUND WEST
Lakers over Jazz in 7
Suns over Hornets in 6
EAST
Celtics over Cavs in 6
Pistons over Magic in 6
CONF FINALS
Suns over Lakers in 6
Pistons over Celtics in 7
FINALS
Suns over Pistons in 6
Yeah. I picked it before the season, and I'm sticking with it. I think the Celtics will probably win it all now, but I'm not gonna change it. Besides, who reads this?
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
of course
Of course this is the year that all # 1 seeds make it.
Of course.
Forget everything I said. Again.
I'm not even sure if UNC - UCLA is happening now. Memphis looks damn good.
Quick note for the pros circuit: I explained why lowly East teams didn't have much to play for, except for Atlanta, but I never thought about the good news for West teams. Portland would have liked to make the playoffs, but they'll take the 13th pick and use it (Stephen Curry? think about it...).
As I pointed out, the East teams in the lottery will almost certainly all be picking in the top 11. The difference between 8th and 9th seed is three spots. But look out west, where three teams are struggling to get in. The difference between the 8th and 9th seed? A whopping seven spots. The last team out in the west will pick 14th, but the last team in will probably be picking at 21 or 22. I know none of these three teams wants to miss the playoffs, but that's a nice consolation prize.
Now, Golden State and Denver have a lot of young talent and might be psychologically hurt by not making it, especially when they know they could wreak havoc as low seeds. For Dallas, it would be a disaster after the whole Kidd trade.... but wouldn't it be appropriate? This team needs a kick in the ass, and maybe this would be it. Dallas misses the playoffs and Avery might realize he needs to adjust some things. It would put pressure on them, but they need it. They can always blame Dirk's injury if that makes you feel better, Dallasites (Dallasans? Dallasers?).
They made a sly move in having their draft pick lottery-protected this year in case of emergency. They keep it now if they miss the playoffs. Would you rather have a first round loss and a summer of infighting, or a decent pick (that could be traded or used on a shooter) in the late lottery? Nothing short of a finals appearance will stop the turmoil, and it ain't gonna happen. I know Dallas would never think this way, but they might take a mulligan here.
I'm rooting hard for them to be the odd one out... I don't need to see Kidd hoisting ugly shots and glaring at Avery while they get blown out by San Antonio, when I could have G State or Denver bringing much more excitement. I'm sorry, Cuban, but someone had to go and it's you.
Of course.
Forget everything I said. Again.
I'm not even sure if UNC - UCLA is happening now. Memphis looks damn good.
Quick note for the pros circuit: I explained why lowly East teams didn't have much to play for, except for Atlanta, but I never thought about the good news for West teams. Portland would have liked to make the playoffs, but they'll take the 13th pick and use it (Stephen Curry? think about it...).
As I pointed out, the East teams in the lottery will almost certainly all be picking in the top 11. The difference between 8th and 9th seed is three spots. But look out west, where three teams are struggling to get in. The difference between the 8th and 9th seed? A whopping seven spots. The last team out in the west will pick 14th, but the last team in will probably be picking at 21 or 22. I know none of these three teams wants to miss the playoffs, but that's a nice consolation prize.
Now, Golden State and Denver have a lot of young talent and might be psychologically hurt by not making it, especially when they know they could wreak havoc as low seeds. For Dallas, it would be a disaster after the whole Kidd trade.... but wouldn't it be appropriate? This team needs a kick in the ass, and maybe this would be it. Dallas misses the playoffs and Avery might realize he needs to adjust some things. It would put pressure on them, but they need it. They can always blame Dirk's injury if that makes you feel better, Dallasites (Dallasans? Dallasers?).
They made a sly move in having their draft pick lottery-protected this year in case of emergency. They keep it now if they miss the playoffs. Would you rather have a first round loss and a summer of infighting, or a decent pick (that could be traded or used on a shooter) in the late lottery? Nothing short of a finals appearance will stop the turmoil, and it ain't gonna happen. I know Dallas would never think this way, but they might take a mulligan here.
I'm rooting hard for them to be the odd one out... I don't need to see Kidd hoisting ugly shots and glaring at Avery while they get blown out by San Antonio, when I could have G State or Denver bringing much more excitement. I'm sorry, Cuban, but someone had to go and it's you.
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