Friday, December 11, 2009

West preview, the upper

PHOENIX SUNS











For all the talk of the Shaq experiment failing, it wasn't really him. They never should have tried to stop pushing it and didn't have the defenders to try. They did fine with him in D'Antoni's offense. Terry Porter's worst crime was making Nash a secondary player. Why waste him like that?











So yes, now that it's over, I expect a much less stressful year for them. They shouldn't have any problem getting back in the playoffs this year. I don't have them as contenders, however, because of some key injury concerns. Nash and Stoudemire are always risks to go down, and they don't have key backups. I thought the Suns were going to draft a point guard, since there were so many this year, but they continue to leave Nash without a real sub. If he goes down, they're done. Amare is irreplaceable in the lineup, even if Robin Lopez progresses, because his scoring is unmatchable. Amare also has all the trade rumors and free agency issues to deal with, but he should still be fine if healthy. I don't think their rotation is that bad without Shaq - Channing Frye and Earl Clark may fit them nicely, and they're gonna go small a lot anyway. As I've said a million times, they should have kept some of those draft picks. They didn't, and now they have to hold their fingers.











Again, the conference is so that they shouldn't have any problems getting in the postseason, but I don't know if they go anywhere.











UTAH JAZZ











This team was considered so hot and so dangerous two or three years ago when they snuck into the conference finals. They had all these young big guys, Deron Williams, and a host of options. But they haven't really made a jump.











The problem here is that the pieces don't all fit. Boozer and Okur are great offensive big men but terrible defenders. They thought maybe Kirilenko would make up for that, but he doesn't really fit next to them. He doesn't really have a position they can use him for. They need shooters on the wing, but Korver (as I saw in Philly) should be a three man and a becnh player only. Giving him extended minutes at guard is going to kill them defensively. Ronnie Brewer is slowing coming along, but still needs to shoot better.











I expected them to make trades with Boozer and maybe Kirilenko to bring in a shooting forward, but it hasn't happened yet. Matt Harpring is still around, but who knows how much he has left. I like that they got a backup point in Maynor, but they have a weird roster. Why have they loaded up on young post players? They know Boozer will be gone soon, but what about everyone else?











I can't predict their season because it seems like they have a few moves up their sleeve. They need a scoring wing to really contend. They're still ultimately in good shape for the future, with Williams and thsoe young big guys.... and, again, they have the Knicks' pick next year (hold on AAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAH oh, Isiah HAHAHA) so they're fine. This season looks like it will be hard to predict, but I'm guessing they have a low playoff seed and try to fix the roster.











NEW ORLEANS HORNETS











After such a promising season in '08, last year ended in near disaster in the playoffs. Now, I'm not sure what to think. The Hornets seemed to be in financial hot water when they started trading away guys. Giving up my boy Rasual was tough. Almost giving up Tyson Chandler for cap relief would've been terrible. Trading him later for Emeka Okafor was puzzling in that it didn't seem to help either team, or give them financial relief. Finally, they brought on payroll to get Darius Songalia, which was an okay but not great move. I don't know. I really don't.











One of Okafor's problems in Charlotte was deciding if he was a 4 or 5. In the West, he may be a bit small for center. That could hurt, but it's not a big change. Losing Rasual Butler is going to kill them if Stojakovic is still hurting. His injury, and Chandler's, are what really killed them last season.











Despite the injury woes, the Hornets still won about 50 games and were playoff bound. They should be still, but some of these moves have confused me about the direction of this franchise. They need a lot more to contend, and who knows if money will be spent to do that.











PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS











After they finally broke through last year, the Team With Infinite Upside seems like a candidate to take the next step to contender. After all, they won 54 games and tied for the second-best record in the whole conference even though they had holes at point guard and lots of injuries. Now, they have Andre Miller and another year of experience. They should be awesome, right?









Something doesn't feel right to me here. Because they broke the 50 game mark easy, I won't doubt them to do it again. But their no-show in the playoffs suggests that they need more time. After acquiring so many interesting young guys, they may want to figure out which ones they want. Eventually, people are going to get pissed about playing time. Miller is a nice point, and he saved the Sixers many times over the past few years, but people are questioning his ability to play with Brandon Roy. I thought the plan was to have Roy be the main ball carrier and have Jerryd Bayless play off of him as a scorer. They barely used Bayless, who was once considered a top pick. They ought to trade him before other teams think something is up.









They also have a logjam at the three, although I'm guessing they will use Outlaw more as a backup big guy (see next point). They could just give time to Rudy, and have Batum as defensive specialist. They will need Outlaw at the 4 because there's no experienced backup there. I think they should be just a little worried that the only true big guys are Oden, Pryzbilla, and Aldridge. If they get any injuries, they'll be in trouble, and their centers haven't had a great history of health. They have Juwon Howard, but he's been around a long time. It would be smart of them to go small with all their guards, but Nate McMillan hasn't done that too much.









It wouldn't surprise me to see them win 55 or even 60 games, but I'm still not sold on them as a real threat to the Lakers until I see more.











DALLAS MAVERICKS











This is one of my favorite stories of the offseason - the Mavs reverting to their star-loading days of old. You may remember the early part of the decade, when they tried to load up with big name guys around Nowitzki, Finley, and Nash. They brought in Juwon Howard, Raef LaFrentz, Antoine Walker, Nick Van Exel, Antawn Jamison, and tried to create lineups with all stars and no role players or real centers. It didn't work well. Eventually, the Mavs did better and made the Finals with a bunch of supporting people around Nowitzki, including two true centers who cared about defense.









Now, they seem to be moving in the same old direction. After two years of slowing down, they brought in Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas, while not adding any post guys. They also lost key glue PF Brandon Bass. They can now throw out an interesting but small lineup of Nowitzki, Marion, Josh Howard, Terry, and Kidd. It's not so much different than those early lineups, although Kidd will not be a scorer, and that's good for him. They need to mix in role players like Quinton Ross and whatever big men they have left. Marcin Gortat would have been a nice help, but Orlando's trickiness got them.









Still, I think they can manage this a little better than they did last time. I like Kidd and Terry in the same backcourt, and I like Marion playing inside more to help Nowitzki. The only problem I can see is if Marion and Howard are too similar, but that's about it. I still think they need another big man, but if they can give minutes to defensive minded guys like Ross and Dampier with those scorers, maybe they will have enough shots to go around. I don't think they can compete with the Lakers without adding another big man, but they can be the second best team and hope for a lucky break if everything works right.







DENVER NUGGETS







No team made me look worse last year than the Nuggets. Coming off a season in which they only got the 8th seed in the playoffs, they basically dumped Marcus Camby for nothing, just to save money, and to make it seem like they needed overpaid and often injured post guys. It did not seem like a great idea (at least, on the court) for a team without much defense or post depth and lots of shooters to trade away its only quality big man / defender / rebounder. I thought it would kill them.







Miraculously, Kenyon Martin and Nene finally had some healthy seasons. K Mart found some of the old defense and rebounding that made him the first pick, while Nene finally showed the offensive skills that made him a high pick too. The Nuggs gambled on these guys because they knew they could never trade either of them, and they had to play them with all the money they were owed, and somehow it worked. They also got a big boost from Chris "Birdman" Andersen, completing the rotation.







Their other risky move was trading Iverson for Billups, which was a pretty easy deal in hindsight. Even though Iverson and Melo had both put up big numbers with each other, they never really gelled, and having a real outside shooter next to Melo (constantly getting double teamed) is ideal. It was hard for the Nuggets to put Melo, Iverson, and JR Smith on the court at the same time, and now they could load up on the perimeter. Add in some inspired play from Anthony Carter and Dahntay Jones, and Denver had a surprise run to the conference finals.







Denver's season was hailed as a matter or risks paying off, and everything coming together. Rightfully so. But now, it seems like everyone is writing them off. If everything that could go right did last year, what's the chance of it happening again? They won't get that luck or that teamwork again, many say. Many are also pointing out George Karl's history, how a lot of his successful teams have fallen apart. Indeed, he's a guy who always seems to wear on his guys eventually.







I don't doubt any of this, and I would never put money or anything of value on this team. I, too, can see it all falling apart. But since so many people are suspecting that they will fall back this year, I'll offer some ideas on why they might just stick around:







1. Melo made some big steps last year. He has so many ways to score right now, so he's not going to stop.







2. They figured out how to use Smith properly, even if it means benching him when he gets too wild.







3. Nene's health problems were weird and not something that suggests long term problems. K Mart is always a threat to go down, and his knees are shaky, but Nene looked fine. His improvement on offense is not something to overlook. He's got a nice post game, which makes him super valuable now.







4. They still haven't found a use for Linus Kleiza. He has a chance to contribute. I like him as a forward in a small lineup to space things out with more shooters. If K Mart does go down at some point, they could play him next to Melo and Birdman down low.







Sure, they could all get hurt, or mutiny, but I think they have just enough depth, including Ty Lawson, to keep things from really getting bad. I have them as one of the top 4 or 5 teams, and really, the only thing that keeps them down in the west order is how other teams have improved.



They can't knock off the Lakers without more big guys and depth, but it doesn't seem like they can add much now with their finances. Still, they're in the discussion of the next teams out west.







SAN ANTONIO SPURS







After a rare early exit, people were talking about the Spurs being too old. Were they? Or was it just that Ginobli was hurt? They did need another big guy, and maybe some depth. They responded with much more vigor than anyone expected, getting Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. Then they picked up a draft steal in DeJuan Blair and appear to be loaded again.







They are the number one threat to take down the Lakers.



LOS ANGELES LAKERS



The reigning champs were kind of a downer for me to watch people (suddenly) care in this town (and then just as suddenly disappear). It just didn't feel like they were properly tested. No one in the West could stick with them. After Yao went down, the Rockets, who were probably the most frisky team

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Extended Season Preview: the Lower

In the first part of my in-depth preview, I look at the lottery teams. The sidewalk is their pillow this year. I will go in mostly worst-to-best order, not exact, but the mediocre teams come last.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

Remember when they almost won the title? That was only seven years ago, right? It seems like 50. Actually, it seems like this is the late 1980's for them all over again. This is the worst roster in the league by far. The only good thing I might be able to say is that they used to be stuck in mediocrity hell, being at the top of lottery teams and getting just okay draft picks, but now they're clearly just bad and will get high picks. Their talent level is low and they haven't drafted any guys recently to change that.

Tyreke Evans was supposed to help, but fits into that problem. I know, I know, after the Rubio disaster, they might look smart for not taking him and going with Evans. But Evans is not a point guard. People like him but they compare him to Jerry Stackhouse, which is not exactly what this team needs. Spencer Hawes is a nice young center, but I don't think he's a franchise player. Jason Thompson is in the same boat, and there's no big man depth behind them. Poor Kevin Martin is going to score 30 points a night because no one else can. He's going to be exhausted.

This team needs a major overhaul and might be leaving Sacto soon. In the meantime, things aren't looking any better. I will watch to see if Donte Green or Omri Casspi show anything, but I see a team without any great hope.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Few teams have had such a busy offseason, but most of the others have something to show for it. This franchise made news by getting a lot of nothing. Let's go back a few years to see how this all went wrong: they got less than they could on deals for KG and Sam Cassell. That sent them downhill and eventually cost Kevin McHale his job. Then, this summer, they traded Rnady Foye, who they were once really high on, for a pick in a less-than-stellar draft. Then, they used that pick (and their own) on two point guards, one of whom was iffy to stay in the draft. I don't know if there was something different they could have done to keep the infamous Ricky Rubio, but drafting another similar player next was not a good start. Now they are really thin in the back court, have no stars next to Jefferson, and are going to keep being bad for a while.

On the plus side, Kevin Love turned out to be fit for the NBA after all, and Jonny Flynn, while no Rubio, is a nice point who has room to grow. They really need wings, and they gave most of theirs away, but they still hope Corey Brewer will make something happen. That's four guys to build on.. but not much more. If they can land a star wing in the next draft or two, they might have the makings of something. For now, another long winter beckons.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Back around my senior year of high school, I worked at a store that sold sports memorabilia. It was really the perfect job for me because I could use sports knowledge to helpless moms and girlfriends looking for gift ideas. They had cards and figurines, and random things with logos like lamps and trash cans. There was a Vancouver Grizzlies trash can that always sat in the corner. I don't know why they had it, but it was clear they were never going to sell it. I took pity on it and told them it would make a nice Christmas gift. I still have it in my room.

I started watching this team because they struggled and they were in a beautiful city with nice people, according to everything I've ever heard. They drafted likable guys like Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Mike Bibby, but they kept losing. They eventually moved to Memphis, and had to deal everyone, but they turned things around. They brought in Jerry West, they drafted well, and they even made the playoffs. They had a nice roster, but at some point, the jackass owner decided that winning 50 games was not worth the money and they'd rather lose again. Of course! Who wants to be good when you can be bad for less money? What a great f---ing business plan! So they traded away their franchise player, and they lost.

I've never turned so hard. I went from rooting for them to openly demanding their non-existence. This franchise should not be around until they get someone else in charge. It's awful. I enjoyed seeing this team win, but then the owner brought down the hatchet and brought in a guy (Chris Wallace) to ensure they would lose and cut costs. He's made my brain bleed with his moves, which are so bad sometimes that it's amazing he can even function and has some talent on this roster.

For example, I noticed something about the Gasol trade that might make it even worse than we originally thought. Midway through the season, Memphis dealt Javaris Crittenton, the only good young player they got in that trade, to the Wizards for a first round pick. Not a bad investment, right? Well, it turns out that they were just getting back a pick that Washington had gotten from them two years ago in the Juan Carlos Navarro deal.

This got me thinking... two summers ago, the Wizards were looking to deal Navarro (they held his rights, but he didn't want to go there) to a number of teams after he had been a standout in Spain. He chose Memphis, mainly because they had his friend and fellow national team member Pau Gasol. Thus, when the Grizz dealt Gasol a few months later, they pretty much ensured that Navarro would not be coming back there. He indeed left after a decent rookie year.

So let's do the math here: they made a horrible trade, which itself created another problem around a guy he had just given up a future top pick for, and then traded one of the few decent assets of that horrible trade just to make up for that other problem that was created by that same horrible trade. I think this is like some circular reference, only it comes out in the negative. Needless to say, I haven't seen anyone compound themselves quite like Chris Wallace.

And now, he brings in Zach Randolph. He scores but does nothing else and screws up chemistry. You can't build a team around him. Pau Gasol took them to the playoffs three times. They could build around him. But to save money, they dumped him, and some other veterans who could win. Now they have an interesting young core, but they're going to ruin it with Z-Bo (and AI) demanding the ball. And, most amazingly, he makes about the same amount of money as Gasol. If they had just kept PG, they'd have a great foundation. Beautiful work, Chris.

Anyway, after reading my post about Iverson, I'm certain now that this is not going to work. He had the chances to do good last year and didn't. He might be getting desperate, and he claims he will try to fit in, but this is not a setting that evokes success. I would contract this team and send these young guys elsewhere if I could. Alas, they will be around this year. Sometimes, I don't like the NBA.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Remember that long rant I had before the draft about this franchise? They kept trading guys or not trading guys because of who they had, only to then trade those guys who were supposedly valuable to them? Well, it has reached an all-time low. They dumped Richard Jefferson (who cost them a former high pick) for money to save, so they could (I thought) keep Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions. Nope. Both gone. They've been bad recently and have nothing to show for several of those lottery picks. That is enough to ruin a franchise that spends, let alone one that doesn't.

This might be the most depressing situation in the league, if it wasn't for some comically abysmal other ones. I don't know if this team will ever be sold or not, but they have really just given up. The only young guys they have to build around are all suspect and unproven. The one guy that probably should get traded - veteran shooter (and expensive) Michael Redd - is still here. They got a nice bargain in Hakim Warrick, but if not for him, they wouldn't even have a real frontcourt. Throw in flashy but raw rookie Brandon Jennings at the point and we have a long, long season. I imagine they will start to field offers for Redd. Unless Andrew Bogut becomes a real offensive force, this team is dead.

NEW YORK KNICKS
NEW JERSEY NETS

I group these teams together because they play near each other and they've had the same goal for the past two years: get rid of guys with big contracts, develop young stars, and save cap space for this summer to get LeBron or other big free agents. Everyone points to the Knicks as the favorite to get the big stars, but the Nets have actually put together a much better roster. The Nets have a young star point guard in Devin Harris, a decent true center with post up moves (a rarity these days) in Brook Lopez, a nice guard who can shoot threes and defend in Courtney Lee, rebounders Josh Boone and Sean Williams, interesting wings Terrence Williams and Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Yi, who might be a bust, but is a big guy who can shoot, which is nice to have (and he'd help out with Chinese market expansion.... he's more of an off-court asset than on, amazingly). The Knicks have some nice pieces.... David Lee and Jordan Hill can board, but they aren't centers, wing Wilson Chandler is good, forward Danilo Gallinari is promising but I don't know where he plays, and Nate Robinson can score but is not a point and maybe shoots too much. And that's it. On top of that, they don't have their first round pick next year because of the Marbury trade (AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HAHA HAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAA IT'S STILL HAUNTING THEM) , and that hurts. Jersey will have their high pick, plus Dallas' pick.

So tell me why LeBron doesn't take a look at the Nets?

I said this a while ago, but the experts said that it wouldn't matter without them moving to Brooklyn. Now, with a fancy Russian billionaire involved, who knows? As for this year, both of them will struggle to win 30 games. I think the Knicks will because they're desperate, and have no reason to fold without that draft pick. They will try to trade Jared Jeffries and Eddy Curry, but who wants them? I'm watching, as is everyone. This will be a boring, yet very interesting year in the big apple.

NOT THE SUPERSONICS

I still can't name this team, especially when they are looking like a future powerhouse. Really rubs it in to Seattle, and they don't deserve that. They've drafted well and have a great core group of young stars. I like Harden a lot, and he doesn't even have to do much to succeed. They don't really have any big men for now, but they have some interesting guys coming up, like Ibaka and Mullens, who was once considered a top prospect. Durant will probably lead the league in scoring this year... and many more years after that. I think they'll be fun to watch, but they still need some actual depth and inside work to get to the postseason.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

You have to love the dubs, even if they hate themselves. This is a fascinating team that can score 150 points in a game, or give it up. There's no way to predict what will happen... except that, it was like this last year, and they didn't win 30 games. I imagine more of the same, but who knows? Anthony Randolph could be great. He could also flame out, freak out, and have to go somewhere else to thrive. Stephen Curry could be rookie of the year, or he could be buried because they have enough shooters. Stephen Jackson could pout, or.... actually, I don't think he'll stick around that long. That's one of the few safe bets here.

Despite the surprise loss of Baron Davis, Nellie has managed to keep this team loaded with interesting pieces. I don't know if they fit together - well, I know they don't in a traditional sense, but he doesn't care - but they can be good. I am intrigued to see what happens.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

This roster frustrates me. There isn't a single franchise player on it. No one is a lock to average 20 points a game. No one is ranked at the top 5 at their position. They have two point guards who look nice, but not great, fighting for minutes. They have a bunch of bad centers and not enough wings. No one will come close to making the all-star team, no one will be someone casual fans think of, no one is really exciting. Despite all this, they came within sniffing distance of the playoffs last year.

How???

Larry Brown has put together a roster that fits but doesn't amaze. He got rid of his one consistent outside threat, Jason Richardson, to get two decent but unspectacular starters in Boris Diaw and Raja Bell. He let Gerald Wallace handle things and most of the scoring, even though he's more of a slasher. He traded Emeka Okafor, not really a center or a forward or a franchise player, to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler, which brings defense but even less offense. I don't know who is going to score for this team, but I didn't last year and they did ok. Not good. But okay. They might have been a threat to slip in a weak playoff bracket, but the conference has improved enough so that I doubt that will happen.

Let's hope.

DETROIT PISTONS

As I said in my Iverson piece, I really thought they would be inspired last year and wouldn't lose a step, but they lost a flight of stairs and then some. They barely made the playoffs in a conference not as strong as it was when they dominated just a few years ago. No one really said much, because they were clearly setting up cap space to make a big run this summer. They did just that, grabbing Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

But why? They had a decent team. Was Joe Dumars bored? Was he unhappy that they had made a bunch of conference finals and was a consistent contender? He thought they'd never pass the up-and-coming teams, and maybe they wouldn't with the same roster, but a few moves here and there would have strengthened this team. He had already done well by drafting Rodney Stuckey, a nice combo guard to come off the bench, and young bigs in Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson. Detroit's problem in the years after that unlikely title was not the starting lineup, but depth; they won that title with more depth than people think, and a few post options. They were quietly putting together a young bench to help themselves, but Dumars got impatient. Now he has two people who don't really fix anything. Gordon gives them some of the same problems as Iverson did with fitting people in, and Villanueva is like Sheed... without the D.

Letting Ben Wallace go was the right idea, but they never got around to adding a real post player after that. Sheed didn't want to do that, and so they suffered. I thought they would rectify this and get a real center, especially after they gained so many forwards, but they spent money on two more outside guys. Now their center spot will be manned by a combination of a very washed up Ben, Chris Wilcox, and (gasp) Kwame Brown. Yikes. That's not getting you to the playoffs.

So they're back to where they were last year, and not much better, so I don't have them in the postseason. If they could make a trade (Hamilton for Boozer?) to get a real big man, they could be good. Right now, I don't understand what Dumars is doing.

INDIANA PACERS

Here's my preview for the Pacers last year:

"This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up."

Nothing changes. They added nice, quiet role players like Tyler Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones, just to replace people. No big shake ups. No trying anything outside the box. They are officially in mediocrity hell - not bad enough to land someone to make a difference, but not good enough to go anywhere. 36 wins again.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Much like Bill Simmons, I started following this team when I moved out here because, well, every other area pro team is pretty hatable. They're good at getting people who are sick of the Lakers and that bandwagon mess. I knew the experience would be depressing, but it's a whole different kind of depressing right now, because they actually have talent. The old Clippers teams were horrible because they drafted horrible people and didn't spend money on free agents. They had no one. In the past few years, however, they have made some nice moves and have even opened the checkbook a little. Yet they still lose.

The main problem, as the Sports Guy has banged out many times, is that Dunleavy the coach is much worse than Dunleavy the G.M., but he can't fire himself. And the owner never cares. I once thought maybe there was a chance that Stern would dump Sterling, but it's obvious now that he lets him off the hook, especially since it was revealed that the Clippers make money (which just makes me think the world is a bad place sometimes). In this rough time of economic problems, when small market franchises are struggling, I was hoping that Stern would realize that he had the chance to have two good teams in a big market, if he let someone else take over. The Clips could and should be better, making more of a rivalry with their much famous city-mates, but he's content to let them be bad. Oh well. I'd say they would bring in more money, but if they already do, nothing happens. And considering what's gone on in Golden State, Atlanta, Charlotte.... he's not even number one on the s-list anymore. All we can pray for is his death. Seriously. (On the bright side, he seems like a guy who would have a lot of vendettas against him.)

Anyway, this should be a playoff team, but it won't be. The starting five is balanced, and they picked up my boy Rasual Butler as a much needed wing off the bench. Blake Griffin should be rookie of the year, because there's really no one else, but if he's hurt.... well... maybe that makes sense. They even have a decent bench now, with Butler, Craig Smith, Sebastian Telfair, and several centers who will have to share time. None of this matters, because they don't like Dunleavy. Baron Davis regretted his signing almost immediately and has barely tried in his time here. A real owner would tell Dunleavy to bring in a coach, but this is how it goes.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Speaking of franchises with no luck.... these guys tried to create a solid team based around star players, and it was working great, until their bones broke like Sam Jackson in "Unbreakable." Last year, they finally had gotten the right mixture of role players around two big stars - T Mac and Yao - and a third almost star (Artest). They had followed the San Antonio plan to a t. They had settled on point guard and power forward rotations, their most troubled spots the past few years. If they had been all healthy (and for T Mac, honest), they would have been a major contender.

Instead, they go into this season with all supporters and no leads. I don't blame them, and with McGrady's contract expiring, they have a shot to come out of this ok. As for now, though, the regular season will be tough. I don't know who is going to score for them. They like Trevor Ariza, but he can't be the lead guy here. They are totally set up for the stars who are gone, so offense is a mystery. Still, can't you see them staying near .500 and driving people crazy? I envision the scrappy Orlando team that got Doc Rivers his Coach of the Year award. I just have a feeling they'll scrap and be better than they should be. Ultimately, the conference is probably too good for them to make the playoffs. If the Suns were good last year and didn't make it in with 46 wins.... they're in trouble. They will fight hard, they will surprise people, but they have a tough slate.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

The last lottery team on my slate is the hometown guys. First things first - let me congratulate them again on going back to the old logo and red-white-and-blue uniforms, as they always should have been.

Unfortunately, though, I have them in this section because I don't think they will make the playoffs. I think they will get close, and will probably flirt with .500, because they have done so the last 2 seasons with a similar cast. I just don't think they have enough, and the conference is better. Still, I'm not that angry. They've made some changes and there will be more to come. I accept this as a year of transition, because they have a lot to work on before they get anywhere. I also know that they've been building for after this season, when the entire East could change dramatically. Some teams are old (Boston) and some could change next year (Cleveland, Miami, well, almost everyone else). When the dust is settled after this summer, who knows what the East will look like, but the Sixers will have quietly put together a good team - if they do it right.

As I've said before, I didn't like them giving up on Mo Cheeks so early, especially right after he had inspired them at their lowest point (the Iverson trade, which left the team nearly dead). But he's not coming back now and I like Eddie Jordan enough to give him some time. He wants to revamp the offense, and that's good.

Basically, this year is about answering questions. Is Andre capable of playing guard and hitting outside shots? I know he's a great slasher and defender, and he will score, but he could be a regular all-star if he improves from outside. Is Lou Williams a point? Is Jrue Holiday ready soon? Is Thad a wing or a guy who excels in small lineups? Is there any way to make Dalambert worth the money? I always liked him. I don't want to give up on him yet. Does anyone else see the irony of souring on Korver and then dumping him, only to pick up Kapono a little bit later to do the same exact thing? (Actually, I know the answer to this - Korver was gone to get cap space. Still, it's funny.) Is Elton ever going to look like he did? Can I get excited about Speights?

These are the questions I want answered before the end of the season. There are many concerns, but I think Jordan will be looking at all of them. If he can figure this out, then in a year or two, they will be in a good position.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Leo's 2009-2010 NBA Season Preview, Abridged

I will go more into depth later, but here are some quick predictions for the upcoming NBA season:

RECORDS, APPROX.

WEST
1. Lakers 60
2. Spurs 58
3. Blazers 55
4. Mavericks 54
5. Nuggets 51
6. Hornets 50
7. Jazz 49
8. Suns 47

9. Rockets 40
10. Clippers 36
11. Not Sonics 34
12. Warriors 32
13. TWolves 22
14. Grizzlies 21
15. Kings 18

EAST

1. Cavs 62
2. Celtics 60
3. Magic 58
4. Hawks 48
5. Bulls 44
6. Raptors 43
7. Wizards 42
8. Heat 40

9. Sixers 38
10. Pacers 36
11. Pistons 35
12. Bobcats 33
13. Knicks 32
14. Nets 26
15. Bucks 20

PLAYOFFS - FIRST ROUND

Lakers over Suns
Spurs over Jazz
Mavs over Nuggets
Blazers over Hornets

Cavs over Heat
Celtics over Wizards
Magic over Raptors
Bulls over Hawks

SECOND ROUND
Lakers over Nuggets
Spurs over Blazers

Cavs over Bulls
Celtics over Magic

CONF FINALS
Lakers over Spurs
Cavs over Celtics

THE 2010 NBA FINALS

Cavs over Lakers in 7

MVP: LeBron

DEF: Dwight Howard

COACH: Rick Adelman (or someone who surprises me)

ROOKIE: Blake Griffin (even if he is hurt)

6TH MAN: Manu

MIP: Marco Bellinelli

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

The Irony of Iverson

Allen Iverson is on the Memphis Grizzlies.

What do I say about this? This was the guy who revived interest in the Sixers for me - and a lot of other kids - at a point where they were dead. After a bunch of awful draft picks, they took Iverson first, and while he didn't win right away, we could see he was talented and passionate. He eventually got them in the playoffs consistently and to one Finals appearance. Now he's on the most disrespected team this side of the Clippers, and one that has been mostly terrible in its existence, and then traded away its only all-star ever to save money just when it had a decent team.

What happened?

The Pistons shut down Allen Iverson for the rest of the season just a few weeks before it was over. In danger of missing the playoffs, they had to cut him out for injuries, but also for nearly wrecking team spirit. He hadn't been happy coming off the bench or just being in Detroit in general. They thought they might just be better without him for the next few weeks. How could this happen to a guy who was always one of the better scorers in the league, right up until the time he arrived there?

There's a lot of irony in how badly the Iverson experiment failed in Detroit... irony for the people involved and irony for me. Every Philly fan remembers how close they were to trading Iverson to Detroit 9 years ago, right before his MVP / Finals season. That didn't happen because of trade kickers and contract minutia, but everyone can think about what could have been. If I remember right, the Sixers would have gotten back Glen Rice and Eddie Jones, two good shooters... but without much time left. Rice was finished shortly after he won the first of the Shaq-Kobe titles, and Jones never regained his late 90's all-star form. Iverson came back and the Sixers made the finals, while the Pistons looked lost. GM Joe Dumars would have to work magic to get that team in shape. It seemed Philly had dodged a major bullet.

But did they? The next year, the Pistons looked a lot better, and the Sixers began to slip. In 2003, they met in the second round of the playoffs. Despite having the lead in most games, the Sixers had some rough late moments and lost in 6 games. Larry Brown then left - for Detroit - and the Sixers fell even further into a hole that resulted in them eventually trading Iverson away. Detroit won a title under Brown and came close to repeating.

When Detroit and Denver made that big deal, it was like things had come full circle. Chauncey Billups, signed as a forgotten free agent after the botched Iverson deal, had made himself into one of the top guards in the league. But he was always in Iverson's shadow for popularity, and the Pistons figured they could try something different after a few years of very good regular seasons but no Finals. It didn't work.

The personal irony for me is that I still thought Detroit would be a contender after the trade and I liked the combination of him and their players, especially Rasheed Wallace. I updated my season preview to say that I thought this was a good roster for him. Specifically, I liked him with 'Sheed. In my old columns, back in the mid part of the decade, I always rooted for the Sixers to acquire Rasheed Wallace. I thought he was the perfect complement to Iverson. He could shoot and had offensive moves, but didn't mind being a second option. He was great on defense. I figured the best complement to Iverson would be a big guy that could shoot, so they could run the pick and roll. The Sixers actually did try to do this with Derrick Coleman and Keith Van Horn, but those guys were awful on D. Just awful. 'Sheed played D hard and made open shots, and again, he was much happier than other guys deferring. He ran into trouble in Portland once he became the go-to guy there. He didn't want to carry a franchise. He was better in Detroit because the guards carried the offense. To top it off, 'Sheed is a Philly native.

So, as much as I don't care for the Pistons, I was a little happy to see that Iverson and 'Sheed would come together. I also liked their roster to fit Iverson's game. The Sixers did well to match Iverson with a taller point in Eric Snow, who could defend the big guards, and the Pistons had Stuckey as a big point guard who could also shoot threes. Tayshuan Prince was a shooter and defender. They had McDyess as another big man to make shots, and Amir Johnson for rebounding and D. It seemed like the best roster for his talents. I knew it would be tough to mix him and Richard Hamilton, who also likes to come off screens, but that was the only problem I foresaw.

Well, you know how it went. His scoring plummeted, he didn't fit into the system at all, and they basically dumped him. They were happy to get rid of him and get the cap space. It wasn't just Hamilton that clashed with him; no one seemed to like him being there. I really misread that. Looking back, I'm not sure anything I predicted about him was accurate. I don't know if anyone really could have succeeded with him. Melo scored with him around, and their numbers were both good, but they never really meshed. My reflection of his career is entirely different. I thought he was a certain hall-of-famer and franchise player. Now he's scrubbing for a lottery team that I have grown to hate.

I guess I don't know what to think of Iverson anymore.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

NBA tales of trouble

I've been quiet so far, even though I have much to say about the offseason. I'm holding my breath until everything is done, because there have been some bizarre things going on and I've changed my mind many times already. I will wait until I make final judgement.

In the meantime, I'd like to share a lighter excerpt to make these rough times better. One of my friends asked me about some of the biggest scandals to happen to NBA players, and I had to share some of my favorites.

The good doctor writes: What are the most famous examples of NBA guys getting in trouble? Something along the lines of Kobe Bryant accused of rape, or Magic Johnson getting HIV... what are the most famous incidents of notoriety?

Another friend replies: Those are the two most famous. There's also Michael Jordan getting secretly suspended from the NBA for gambling. There's the Kermit Washington punch. The Ron Artest melee. And I know Shawn Kemp had a lot of kids out of wedlock. Oh, I forget the exact details, but something happened with the NY Knicks and the stipclub called the "Gold Club", where basically wholesale prostitution was going on. I think Patrick Ewing was involved. Oh, and the Isaiah Thomas thing, but he was done his playing days when that happened.

Me: Well said. I had to give them my long list of faves....

HAHA, well sir, the Jordan thing has never been confirmed, but a lot of people (I'm guessing you got that from reading Simmons) think that's why he disappeared. You covered a lot of the big ones. There are a lot of rumors and old stories out there, but they aren't as famous. A lot of crazy shite went down in the late 70s and early 80s, when a lot of guys were on coke. The hidden story behind Magic getting AIDS is that he and a lot of other guys had some crazy sex parties and f----d a lot of girls. A LOT. Then there's stories like how Michael Ray Richardson threw away a great career cause of drugs. But those stories are kinda obscure.

There's a lot of stories behind our old pal Mr. Iverson. In high school, he was put in jail for a long time because he was at this fight in a bowling alley where some people got killed. Eventually, the governor of Virginia thought it was a harsh sentence and pardoned him, but some people believe that the reason they gave him a big sentence in the first place is because they were sure he killed a guy but they didn't have any proof. It was a big deal when he got a scholarship to Georgetown. He had a lot of smaller incidents in Philly, and this kid I know who used to work as a valet in Old City claimed that the reason he got shot at one time is because he never paid for anything when he went out to fancy restaurants and expected everyone to just give him stuff because he was the big star. I don't know if that's true or not.

My personal favorite is Isiah Rider (also known as J.R.), who was like a living version of the Chappelle Show's "When Keeping it Real Goes Bad" skit. Even after he got a huge contract, he kept getting in trouble for mischief on the mean streets of Oakland. One time he was arrested for a dice game that got violent. There were incidents all thorughout his career and he nearly ruined the Hawks franchise. But my favorite story of any NBA player is when he got arrested for smoking weed out of a soda can on a street corner. Dude was making ten million dollars a year - he could've gotten some fancy hydroponic waterbong system or something and done it in his house without anyone bothering him, but no, he's on the corner doing something that broke college freshmen MIGHT do if they're desperate. That's keeping it real.

His team in Portland was riveted with bad guys, hence the nickname Jail Blazers. One of them allegedly had another player call up his baby mama and give death threats. Ruben Patterson was arrested for sexual assault on his kid's nanny and had to register in every NBA city as a sex offender. That was fun. Qyntel Woods pulled a Michael Vick before Vick did, but his dog ring wasn't as extensive and he was a no name, so it didn't get nearly as much press.

The Knicks have had misery off the court to match the losses. Stephon Marbury was in trouble a few years ago for some kind of sexual thing known as the Truck Party, which included him either raping or assaulting some girl in a SUV. I don't know the details of that, but he's pretty much been declared insane now, so it's hard to take anything he says seriously. There was almost a juicy story involving Eddy Curry in that a man claimed to be his secret gay lover, and wanted to sue for sexual harassment, but there was no evidence and it died. That would have been huge, but nothing came of it.

I guess, though, the biggest story of the past 10 years, besides the Artest fight, is the Jayson Williams case. He had some good years with the Nets, got hurt, and then was a big studio host. One day he was showing off some antique guns he owned and accidentally shot a guy in the face. The guy died and allegedly he tried to cover it up. I don't know if this case has even been concluded yet, but he's been in and out of court for the past decade.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Griffin! Everyone else! It's the 2009 NBA Draft!

What a glorious day it is. The annual draft is a big festival in my house and in some corners of the sports world. This year, though, it's a little unpredictable. And weak. I shouldn't be as excited because teams are selling picks and none of these guys are likely going to be stars, save for a few. But I am excited, as always, because this means a new crop of young ballers coming in and it's fascinating to see where people go.

I actually think this year's draft is useful for people who realize that it sucks. If that doesn't make sense, well, maybe I should say that it works if you go in with lowered expectations. Normally, you might expect to find a starter or a major contributor up until the midway point. Not this year. If you need a little bench help, however, and a lot of teams do, it's an effective place to find people. Especially point guards. Teams that were hoping to get the big prize (Blake Griffin) are just going to have to face the fact that they're not getting an impact player. They need to look at weak spots and depth issues, as opposed to major holes.

I usually go with my own mock of what will happen and my opinion on what should happen. I have no idea, so I'm just giving out advice this year. Yeah, I didn't follow college ball as closely as I have, but the elite group is small and I'm pretty sure I've seen them in action.

Here goes:

1. Clips - They will take Griffin and they should, although, if the Not Sonics wanted to offer Durant, I think that works out for both teams, pending on what the details are. If he's not going to stay, it makes sense for the Okies to get a local kid who will. And it solves what positions people play. But the easier thing to do for the Clippers is just to take Griffin and do anything they can to get Zach Randolph out of town. Or just pull a Steve Francis and cut him.

2. Grizzlebees - They are depressed because Griffin could have been the last piece to a nice young lineup and there are no big men who even come close after him. Oh well - they don't deserve it. Not after giving up on a rare franchise big guy for nothing when he was still young. They need to realize that no one here can save them, so they should just trade down and improve their bench. If they go down with Minnesota, they can pick up Jordan Hill, who will be a nice energy guy to use with Gasol and Arthur. They can also pick up backups on the wing and point with later selections. Haseem Thabeet would be a nice tandem with Gasol, but he doesn't add any offense and they still have a hole at PF. They should just go for depth now and hope that next year, they can get a decent big man.

3. Not Sonics - They could go in many directions, and none of them are bad. They could take Rubio if they aren't sure Westbrook is a real point guard. They can take Curry and maybe split it up. They can take Harden, which is easy enough. Or they could take Thabeet if he's available. I like Thabeet here because they don't have a true center or shot blocker; they have a lot of forwards. Harden would be just fine, but they might be able to find a decent shooter in free agency. I have a feeling that Rubio will be gone, or at least should be... if not, they could trade down with Minnesota too and get some more picks and still get a decent guard.

4. Kings - Rough times for Sacto. The Kings really need a point guard and someone who can revive interest and they're just on the outside of getting Rubio. They don't really have anything to trade up for, but they can hope he falls. I don't think he will. The Wolves are desperate now and have more assets to move ahead. That leaves them with the next few guys: Flynn, Evans, Curry. I don't know if Evans or Curry will be real point guards; I think they'll be good players but this team needs a true point. I like Flynn but this may be a little high. They are in a rough spot. I'd say Flynn with a gulp.

5 & 6. Wolves - It was a little weird for them to pick up two consecutive picks in a crummy draft, but they're not done. They can probably convince Memphis or OKC to trade so they can get Rubio. Originally, I thought they would target Thabeet to platoon with Love and to let him come off the bench, but they are now desperate for guards. Really desperate. If they can keep # 6 and get Rubio at 2 or 3, they'll be in good shape. The actual 5th pick then depends on the trading partner: OKC would take Harden or Curry, while Memphis would likely spring for Hill. That would leave the Wolves to pick up a two guard at # 6. The good news is that one of Curry, Harden, or Evans has to be available in this scenario. I like Harden the best out of those guys, then Curry, then Evans.

Here is my advised top 6: Griffin, Rubio (to MIN), Thabeet, Flynn, Hill (to MEM), Harden.

7. Warriors - It seemed like they were taking a point, and that's smart. Even though it looks like they are trading Crawford for Law and Claxton now, those guys haven't done much. They will likely choose amongst whomever is left between Flynn, Evans, Curry, and Jennings. I like Flynn, although he could be gone. I think this is a decent place for Evans - he's not really a point, but neither is Monta Ellis, so maybe it will work. Curry might be too much like Ellis. Jennings is a strong possibility and I would see that. I don't think they'll go for a big guy unless he's an outside shooter type, and there aren't any here.

8. Knicks - I have a feeling that some way, they're going to steal Curry and piss everyone off. In my advised projections, he's still here. This is a great fit for him - he doesn't have to worry about defense, they can play him at the two and work him in, and D'Antoni will make sure he gets shots. I just think it happens. If he's gone, they may look at Flynn, Jennings, Holiday, or Teague. I don't know if they will be as happy with any of those guys besides Flynn. Some are saying they like Hill, but is he that different than David Lee?

9. Raptors - They needed wings before they traded Kapono, and they really need them now. I actually think they'll try to get Marion to come back at a reduced rate if no one offers him much and can do it, but even then, they need more depth. Evans would be nice if he was here, but I doubt it. They will likely choose between DeRozan and Clark, maybe Henderson. DeRozan has some skills and maybe the most potential. He's a decent choice here. They don't have any two guards, so he can get time right away.

10. Bucks - I know Simmons laid out the awful history of the Clippers and their penchant for drafting too many forwards. Well, I'd like to present a much smaller history of the Bucks, with special attention paid to point guards. Consider how few teams have been managed as poorly over the past decade:

2003: Having just traded Ray Allen for Gary Payton, the Bucks decide to let Payton walk, giving them... not much. They also decide to let Sam Cassell go for not much, and he helps Minnesota have its best season ever. After giving up on two all-star point guards, they have to draft T.J. Ford.

2004: Ford turns out to be decent, leading the Bucks to a surprise playoff appearance.

2005: Ford also turns out to be injury prone, as he misses most of the season. The Bucks miss the playoffs, but they win the lottery. Despite his injury woes, the Bucks remain committed to Ford as their leader and pass on Chris Paul and Deron Williams with their pick.

2006: Even though Ford comes back and they make the playoffs again, they suspend their commitment to him JUST A YEAR AFTER PASSING UP CHRIS PAUL TO KEEP FORD when they trade him to Toronto for Charlie Villanueva. They like how backup Mo Williams handles himself, even though he's more of a scorer.

2007: The Bucks miss the playoffs by a wide margin. Despite this turn, they decide to re-sign Mo Williams to a sizable contract, even though Miami really wants him to complement Wade. They also re-sign Charlie Bell when Miami tries to get him, even though he doesn't start. Then the Bucks draft Yi Jianlian, and for all the things you've heard about him and/or can make fun of him for, I just want to focus on this: he plays the same style and position as Villanueva. They need a small forward, but they pass on Julian Wright, Al Thornton, Thad Young, and others to get Yi.

2008: The Bucks still suck, but they finally seem to realize that Yi doesn't fit, several months after I (and many people) have been complaining about it. They make a decent trade to get Richard Jefferson from New Jersey for Yi and Bobby Simmons' horrible contract. I did mention his horrible contract, right? No? How about Dan Gadzuric? No? Silly me. I got so caught up in the point guard revolving door, I must've forgot.

So, despite picking up Jefferson, the Bucks still draft a small forward in Joe Alexander. They could have used a bruising big guy to take pressure off of soft bigs Villanueva and Bogut, but whatever. It's not the worst move they've made.

Finally, several months after signing him to a big contract and apparently committing to him as their point guard of the future, the Bucks dump Mo Williams for basically nothing. Actually, nothing would be the ideal. They take back Luke Ridnour's salary, even though the trade is supposed to free up time for late steal Ramon Sessions.

2009: The Bucks start the season by giving Ridnour time ahead of Sessions. Strange. They still lose.

The Bucks finish the season by trading Jefferson for salary dumps. They claim that they need the money to keep Villanueva and/or Sessions. So yes, they used up that 2007 # 6 pick for NOTHING, essentially. And they hurt their chances for keeping Sessions by taking on Ridnour and playing him, even though they didn't need him in that Mo trade, and didn't pick up anything in that trade, despite them having the only important player in that trade. WHY DIDN'T THEY PICK UP AN EXPIRING CONTRACT OR A YOUNG PLAYER OR JUST NEVER FREAKING RESIGN MO WILLIAMS IN THE FIRST PLACE???

This team has been going in a strange cycle of suck and it hasn't stopped. Do they even have any fans left? If so, why???

I'm guessing they will take another point guard this year. They have to, just to keep this comedy of errors going. Even if they think that they can bring Sessions back now (which was the decent move all along), they'd like to be safe. They can never settle. I would advise them to stop existing altogether, but I suppose the answer here is taking Flynn, Jennings, Holiday, or Teague, in that order. They like Teague, I hear. Of course they do.

11. Nets - They really need a wing. They had a laughable trio of washups at the 3 last year, presumably because they are holding it open for LeBron. Well, it might help to get someone anyway, and they can always trade or move Vince. I like Earl Clark, but Gerald Henderson is fine here too. If DeRozan slips this far, he'd be a solid pick.

12. Bobcats - They need a two guard, preferably one who can shoot. Henderson seems like an easy choice. DeRozan again, if he slips, is good. I hear they like Terrence Williams, but he's a little unpredictable.

13. Pacers - They need a power forward who can play and score inside, and there aren't many this year. James Johnson is more of a tweener, and this is too high for Hansbrough (and please, Larry Legend, they have enough white guys). DeJuan Blair would be an easy pick if they weren't scared about injury problems, but honestly, who else can they go with? He's what they need. I hear they like point guards, but they already have a bunch.

14. Suns - They just traded Shaq and have been linked to a lot of guys at this spot. They haven't had a real backup for Nash these past few years and it's hurting him. He might be gone soon, too. This is the draft to get young points, so why won't they? They have wings and a few bigs, and they could play small. It depends on who is still around. I think Flynn will be gone. Jennings could be a bust but has talent. Holiday is raw but has potential. Maynor is solid all around but unspectacular. Teague is nice but maybe not a real point. Lawson is solid but probably more of a backup. I'd say Jennings if he's there, then Holiday, then Maynor.

That concludes a weird lottery....

15. Pistons - They haven't had a true 7 footer since... well, Darko, but an effective true center? Years ago. They are rebuilding, and even though I think they will do the most in free agency and try to win soon, they should think about B.J. Mullens. They have undersized forwards and they can pick up more of those, but he could develop if they use him right.

16. Bulls - They could use a big man who can score, although that's rare in this draft. I like James Johnson here - he's a tweener, but he would only need to come off the bench and he can shoot. If Blair slips this far, they ought to snatch him up.

17. Sixers - First of all, I would like to say thank you to the hometowners for bringing back the old logo and the red, white, and blue color scheme. I always thought of it as the real logo. A team in Philly representing something patriotic really should stick with our national colors, right? The unis ever since they got rid of Barkley have been a mess.

I'm guessing that the Kapono trade means that they are not going for shooters. They could use a point, especially if Andre Miller leaves, and for the future. I like Maynor and Lawson and would be happy with either. Jennings if he slips, and Teague are possibilities.

18. Wolves - I'm expecting this pick to be traded. Memphis might go for Budinger or another wing here. OKC would go for whatever they didn't get earlier - a big guy or a shooter.

19. Hawks - Even though they picked up Crawford, they may want a guard. I don't know if they bring Bibby back, plus there aren't any big guys left here who can help them. Teague is a nice pick because he can shoot and they need that. Lawson and Maynor would be fine.

20. Jazz - Please, please don't pick Hansbrough. You have enough white stiffs in your history. Even if Boozer leaves, they can use Millsap and Kirilenko at the four with better results. I'm thinking a three would help better - Kirilenko and Korver do well off the bench or at other positions, Harpring is getting old, and that's the spot they need. A good shooter like Budinger or Daye would work. Daye could be like a young Rashard Lewis for them.

21. Hornets - They need big man depth, but that's about gone at this point. Instead, they might as well just get a backup point because there won't be much else left. They did well when CP had another point guard who could shoot with him. Teague and Lawson would be decent picks here.

22. Blazers - They traded up for two spots. Why? I don't know. They like to move. I think this is where Hansbrough should go, and it fits him well. He can board and bring energy off the bench to relieve Aldridge. They don't want more projects, and he's ready to play.

23. Kings - They will certainly use their first pick on a point, so here is a chance to get some big man depth. Too bad it's almost gone. They can take a crack at Hansbrough if he's available, but I doubt it. They might have to swing for Taj Gibson or Jeff Pendergraph.

24. Mavericks - They would like a big guy, too, but there won't be much to be had here. No, they can go to free agency for that. I think they should consider a point to serve under Kidd, because Barea and Terry are more shooters. If Terrence Williams slips this far, it would be great. He could learn under Kidd and not have so much pressure. Same for Holiday. Maynor or Lawson would be fine, but I think all of these guys could be gone. That might leave them with Nick Calathes, who is going to Greece but could be a nice prospect down the road. Otherwise, they could take another wing for depth. Sam Young, Derrick Brown, Ellington could fit.

25. Not Sonics - see 18. They could get Ellington here and that might solve some shooting issues. Or they could take another foreign guy to add to their stable.

26. Bulls - With their second pick, the Bulls can do more for their depth. I'm interested to see what they do over the summer, and they might have to prepare for that now. If they try to keep Gordon, they they probably have to move Hinrich. A backup point would be nice here then. If they don't keep Gordon, a backup wing like Ellington would fit. I didn't expect them to keep Gordon at the beginning of the season and they can really just give his minutes to Hinrich and Salmons. But then what about Deng? Is he okay? A lot of questions here. They should take a guard to be safe.

27. Grizz - Again, they need depth. Any wings or points left over would be a nice break for them. Young, Brown, Summers are all decent here. If the major points are gone, maybe they consider Darren Collison or Patrick Mills.

28. Wolves - This pick might be traded or not. The Wolves would probably go for a wing if they keep it. Young is good. DaJuan Summers is a poss, as is Omri Cassipi, or Ellington for some depth.

29. Lakers - It sounds like they're trading this. I would personally take a shot at Toney Douglas. He's not a point guard but they don't need him to be, and he was a good scorer/shooter.

30. Cavs - They made the splash with Shaq but the Orlando series proved they have many holes. They could use a big man who can shoot from outside, or maybe another small forward who can do that and defend to play next to LeBron. There isn't anyone special left here, but they might take a look at some of these wings.

Well, that's it. I have no idea if they will think like me or not. Probably not, I am always horrendously confused... and that's what makes this day so great.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

A new direction

The Sixers' trade of Reggie Evans for Jason Kapono looks pretty simple, straight up: they traded a guy who can't shoot for a guy who can shoot threes. They dumped a big guy for a wing because they needed shooting and they have big guys with Elton Brand and Jason Smith coming back.

I had to notice, however, that this is the first move since they hired Eddie Jordan. It might not seem like a big coaching change, but it gives me hope. I wasn't initially with all their coaching moves this year. I thought they gave up on Maurice Cheeks too early and that their early season slump wasn't really his fault; they just couldn't build an offense around Brand (who was still hurt). His firing coincided with them playing small and fast, and they won more in the second half. Jordan, however, was also probably fired too quickly. Washington sucked, but they were destroyed by injuries. Jordan took a team of offensive (well, selfish) minded players with a few defenders (with no offense) and made them into a regular playoff team. He knew how to run an offense with limited guys. In the end, these were two coaches who deserved better, so maybe it all works out.

I do know that Jordan might have good ideas for the offense. He's talked about moving Brand around, doing more with him and Iguodala, and trying to get more of a rhythm going. This trade allows them to (hopefully) move people back to good spots. The Sixers did well by going small and running the past two years, but that will only get them so far. As I've said before, it's nice but it has limits, and that's why they needed Brand. Now, they could potentially start Kapono or Thad at the 3, move Iggy to the 2, move Green to the bench (please), and then go smaller on the SECOND unit, instead of the first. They have the hustle and speed that's good for the bench, but they've been using it too much. The starting unit has to be bigger and better offensively. It seems like they are moving that way.

I'm hopeful then that Jordan can figure out some things. Next up is the draft. It's not deep, but there are a lot of point guards available, and the Sixers can grab someone nice to eventually replace Andre Miller... or now, if he leaves. If they get a guy who can shoot (I like Ty Lawson), that adds to the new direction. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.

Friday, June 5, 2009

WOW... a defense of the big SB

Oh wow. This is too good. A man got a link on Simmons by trying to argue with him that Shawn Bradley was good. As the writer of a blog named after SB, you knew I couldn't resist.

In short, all I can say is .... SHAWN BRADLEY WAS TERRIBLE! I WATCHED HIM FOR YEARS! Yes, he had moments, and he blocked a few shots, but he was a huge bust. There is a legitimate reason we like to make fun of him.

Here's the post:

http://mormonhusbands.blogspot.com/2009/06/defending-shawn-bradley-swatting-bill.html

Here's my response, in case he took it down (it's clean, and civil, but I did go on for a while):

"Don't get me wrong, sir: Shawn Bradley was a cool guy, and always fun, so much so that I named my own hoops blog after him. But he was an awful, awful player. You can crunch numbers all you want, but if you ever watched him play for the Sixers, he was dreadful.

I like that someone has the chutzpah for defending him, and I'll admit that his numbers don't look so bad compared to other guys. Blocked shots on their own, however, are a pretty meaningless statistic. Lots of tall guys have them but it's not as important as good post defense, which requires some strength and quickness, which he didn't have. Marcus Camby might not have any offense and gets a lot of empty blocks, but he also rebounds well and is about a million times quicker. SB got muscled around and scored on far more often than he blocked shots. I saw it. It was not pretty.

Example: When the Pistons won the title, Ben Wallace got a lot of credit for blocking shots, but it was Rasheed's man defense that allowed him to do that. That's the kind of defense you want, not just blocks. Yes, SB never played with another good defensive big guy, who might have helped him block shots, so that's rough for him, but it doesn't take away the fact that he was NOT a good defender.

His rebound numbers surprised me, but that's a bit of a misnomer as well. Other guys like Smits and Illgauskas were primarily jump shooters who played away from the basket. Divac and Sabonis did that as well, plus they played on loaded teams where their passing ability was key. SB never had a good midrange jumper or any passing ability. He just hung around the post, or tried to, as people pushed him around. Any big guy who plays a lot of minutes can average a decent amount of rebounds. Even Kwame averaged about that many boards a game when the Wizards were trying to develop him and gave him time. To borrow a common line from Simmons, Jermaine O'Neal averaged about that this year and he's pretty much dead. I'd be more interested to see his rebounds-per-minute average.

Look, the guy had a raw deal, for sure. Those Sixers teams were beyond terrible and the front office had no idea what it was doing. I think he eased up a little after he got out of town, and didn't have all the pressure. I also think Dallas figured out the right way to use him, as a role player who wasn't needed for much besides blocking shots. If you want to say that he was good early on his career, however, I'm sorry. I watched those teams. As bad as they were, he wasn't the solution. He was one of the nicest guys to ever play here, and I always root for him, but there's a reason he's the butt of those jokes."

The end.


This is an example of how numbers can really skew things. Statistically, he appears to be a decent center. And for a while, there weren't a ton of great centers and people continued to try to go big even when they didn't have talented big guys. But please, please, please do not try to put him in a class with Marcus Camby or Rik Smits or Zydrunas Illgauskas. Camby is skinny but he doesn't get pushed around, plus he's very quick. He rebounds extremely well. Smits and Illgauskas had offensive skills. SB had NOTHING offensively. NOTHING.

I don't get how people can look at this and say he was a decent defender. He blocked some shots. So did every 7'4" or over guy. It doesn't count for his atrocious man defense, because he got pushed around and had no lateral quickness. You have to be strong in the post. He might block Shaq 3 times in a game, but then Shaq would easily dunk on him 12 times. I saw a game at the ol' Spectrum against Orlando in the Shaq-Penny days. Shaq tossed him around like a rag doll. He did that to a lot of people back then, but that was a routine for SB. If he had another good post defender, he might have found a niche blocking shots (like he did later in his career). Sadly, he had undersized Clarence Weatherspoon, a score-first guy and bad defender, next to him.

(Also, no one outside of Philly remembers this, but Sharone Wright, the guy they drafted the year after Bradley, was even worse. He did nothing and was out of the league in 4 years. He looked like he might be a physical post presence, but no dice.)

Thursday, June 4, 2009

well this is unplanned

Orlando.

Seriously.

That was one of the more intriguing playoff series in a while. I did not see it coming. The Magic took down the Cavs right away and didn't let go. They are dependant on shooting (a usual killer at some point) but they haven't been cold yet. They struggled with the Sixers in the first round and yet managed to embarrass Cleveland. HOW DOES THAT WORK??

I'm confused. Looking at their series vs. how the Lakers struggled against Houston and Denver, it seems that Orlando is in a good spot. I said before the season that Andrew Bynum was the key, but the Lakers have done a lot without him. He might be useful in this series, if he can push Howard a bit, but he hasn't shown much lately. It seems the Lakers wouldn't be so unfazed by Orlando's small lineup, because they can just use Odom, but the Cavs mysteriously failed to do the same thing with LeBron.

Jameer Nelson's pending return might be key. The Lakers struggle with quick scoring point guards. They have for years. If he's even decent, that could be a problem. Even Rafer Alston could take advantage of these guys.

Where to go? I think the Lakers have more of a sense of urgency. I also think that Phil Jackson is smart enough to make sure that they don't double team too much and leave shooters open like other teams did against Orlando. I know Kobe is angry over what happened last year and knows that, even though his team is fairly young, he may not have more chances. But I also know that a team that got beat up down low last year is going to struggle with Howard. Pietrus can give Kobe trouble, and Nelson could terrorize them.

I guess I'm going with the Lakers in a high-scoring series. I want to pick against them, but I just don't see Orlando pulling more tricks out. Lakers in 7.




And on a side note...

I feel good for the Clippers, even though most people have given up on them. I just hope there's a way they can get new management. Would it be terrible if someone overtook them like a South American country? Guerilla style? Eventually, Donald Sterling has to do something that lands him in jail, right? This is a talented team. It really is. I have a feeling that the commissioner will realize that, in this time of economic woe, he has the potential for two successful franchises in LA and some cash to be made. If he doesn't, he's missing out. I am crossing my fingers that someone will realize that it needs to end now.

I also hope that the Kings capitalize on Memphis' stupidity and move up to take Ricky Rubio. They really need him. They're in awful shape and he's the only guy outside of Griffin who can revive interest in this draft.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

playoff update

I really didn't know how these playoffs would go down, and so far, they've been just as unpredictable - in parts. I did not know what to make of the west's bottom half, and I was way off. Nothing much has changed. My only new predicition is that the Nuggets will outlast the Mavericks in 7. They're playing great. They will not, however, be able to challenge the Lakers, who will win in 5. In the east, not much has changed. Even though the Hawks won, I doubt they'll be able to steal more than one game from the Cavs. The rest is as I said it.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Playoff Predictions oh nine

The playoffs just got interesting and less interesting. There are a ton of ways for this all to play out, but it the end, it won't matter, because the finals are set: Lakers - Cavs. Only a few catastrophic injuries could stop this from happening. The injuries that have already happened have made a pretty clear pick even easier: Garnett is done, Ginboli is done, and Orlando's forwards are hurting. It was looking like Lakers-Cavs before this, and now, it's obvious. But the rest of the bracket will be fun. And I'm not sure who wins.

EAST PLAYOFFS
1. Cleveland vs. 8. Detroit

Hard to believe the Pistons have slipped this much, but they have. Maybe not having Iverson helps them. They won't get close, but they have to have some pride left.

CAVS in 6

4. Atlanta vs. 5. Miami

Atlanta's reward for improving and landing home court? A dangerous Miami team. Atlanta has been good and proved me right for believing they wouldn't slip this year, but Wade is too much. He's carried this team over bigger obstacles.

HEAT in 7

3. Orlando vs. 6. Philly

No one wants to watch this series. The Sixers haven't been that amazing in the past few weeks, but nobody challenged. Orlando is hurt but managed to avoid a team that could exploit that. Even if Thad Young comes back, I have little faith in the hometowners. Oh well. They're still learning.

MAGIC in 5

2. Boston vs. 7. Chicago

Boston is reeling from the loss of KG. Chicago has come on really strong. An upset would seem possible, except that Chicago doesn't have the big guys to exploit KG's absence. The Bulls are strong on the perimeter, but the Celtics are better and more experienced there. It might be close, but the defending champs have enough heart.

CELTICS in 6

second round

Cleveland vs. Miami

Wade really should get the chance to face LeBron, shouldn't he? I can see it. Too bad LeBron is a little better and has more help.

CAVS in 6

Boston vs. Orlando

I've debated whether or not Orlando is ready to be a contender. They have a chance with Boston and Philly struggling. I have to think Howard is going to dominate without KG, but what about everyone else? I can see Orlando doing it, but I can also see them falling apart. I like the Celts' moxie.

CELTICS in 7

conf finals

Cleveland vs. Boston

Sadly, the grit of the champs ends here. Even if Boston had a healthy KG, they'd be in trouble. They could use James Posey right now, too. They have no way to hold LeBron all series and they barely did it last year with a full roster. Meanwhile, Cleveland has grown a lot.

CAVS in 5

WEST PLAYOFFS
1. Los Angeles vs. 8. Utah

Utah was supposed to be one of the teams that could challenge the Lakers, but they've fallen apart. They still seem like a tough matchup, and could push the Lakers harder than they would expect in the first round, but there's a reason why they didn't win 50.

LAKERS in 6

4. Portland vs. 5. Houston

I'm distraught. These are two of the best teams in the west and neither of them can go to the conference finals.... unless they beat the Lakers. Some think the Blazers could do that if everything falls into place, but they have to get past the Rockets first. I like Houston just for the desperation/ experience factor. They have to win it, don't they? Portland is young, but with the way they played the last month, I can see them winning this and winning it easy. I will take Houston shakily.

ROCKETS in 7

3. San Antonio vs. 6. Dallas

The bottom half of the Western bracket is really unpredictable. The Spurs seemed like the second best team in the conference and the only guys who could even think of taking on the Lakers. But then Manu was declared out for good, and they've uncharacteristically struggled down the stretch. Dallas has been okay but not great all season. I still think the Spurs have one more stand in them.

SPURS in 7

2. Denver vs. 7. New Orleans

I did not see Denver improving this year, much less getting the # 2 seed. They've done great, but have a lot to prove in the playoffs. They got a rough matchup with the Hornets, who might just be the most dangerous low seed. They've had injuries, but it looks like Peja and Chandler will at least be in the lineup. That scares me more than anything the Nuggs can do.

HORNETS in 7

second round

Lakers vs. Rockets

If the Blazers don't make it, the Lakers will cruise. Even if they did, the Lakers should win. the Rockets have no answer.

LAKERS in 5

Spurs vs. Hornets

The Hornets impressed many last year by taking the Spurs to 7 games. This year, they are hurt, but so are the Spurs. If the Mavs and Hornets win, well, we know the Hornets killed them last year. I think the Hornets can do it again if healthy.

HORNETS in 7

conf finals

Lakers vs. Hornets

I really don't know who is going to face the Lakers in the conference finals. It could be any of those 4 teams - Spurs, Nuggets, Mavs, or Hornets. I would say Spurs if they were healthy, but they're not. The Hornets have the most potential. It doesn't matter, though. None of them are taking the Lakers past 6 games.

LAKERS in 5

THE 2009 NBA FINALS

In a rough season for the league, with teams failing economically and tickets available, one dream matchup is almost certainly going to take place: LeBron-Kobe. Yes, there are many more players involved, but this is a superstar marquee battle that everyone craves. Kobe has more talent surrounding him and more size. LeBron has a better defense and some guards that could hurt LA. Cleveland will hurt people by going small with LeBron at a power spot, but the Lakers might be able to counter with Lamar Odom. If the Lakers want to go big, they may break out Odom, Bynum, and Gasol at the same time. They also have a nice perimeter defender specialist in Trevor Ariza. The Cavs can shoot, though, and they have been great at home, which they will have.

I've debated the outcome of this series many times, and I will do so again in the next month. Right now, I give a small edge to the Lakers, given that they have Bynum back and a little more experience. But I'll be rooting for the Cavs. Cleveland has suffered enough. Maybe my kiss of death will work. Last playoffs I really thought it would be Suns-Pistons.... uggggggggghhh.

Lakers in 6.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

AWARDS 09

Awards for the end of the season:

MVP
1. LeBron James
2. Dwyane Wade
3. Kobe Bryant
No one else is really close to these three. LeBron wins because he has taken a mediocre squad to 65 plus wins. Sure, his stats are redic, but he's also claimed the title of best player. Wade is second for getting a crummy team to the playoffs by himself. You can argue that Kobe is the top dog still, if not the best man on the best team.... but Kobe has the most talent surrounding him, and his main task is just to score. Wade and LB have to do EVERYTHING for their teams.

DEFENSE
1. Dwight Howard
2. Shane Battier
3. D Wade
Howard is an easy choice. He dominates the paint and glass. Note that Wade is coming on here.

ROOKIE
1. Derrick Rose
2. O.J. Mayo
3. Russell Westbrook
4. Brook Lopez
5. Eric Gordon

This is a very solid rookie class. I predicted Mayo could win it because he would have the best chance of averaging nearly 20 a game. Well, he almost did that, but Rose has been spectacular. He scored more than I thought, and he handled the starting job well. Despite a lot of early turmoil in Chicago, they are going to the playoffs. That's worth a lot. Mayo and Westbrook did great for their teams, and Lopez may be a franchise center. Gordon, Marc Gasol, D.J. Augustin, Kevin Love, and Michael Beasley also put up some good numbers, and Rudy Fernandez and Mario Chalmers are getting minutes for playoff teams. The only maybe disappointment for rookies is Greg Oden, but he's had to deal with injuries and high expectations. He's still a valuable part of a Portland team that won 50 games.

COACH
1. Mike Brown, CLE
2. Stan Van Gundy, ORL
3. Nate McMillan, POR
4. George Karl, DEN
5. Rick Adelman, HOU

Brown gets credit for getting LeBron to play defense, while figuring out a way to use him on offense to carry a mediocre unit. He has an undersized back court and two old guys down low, but this team still led the league in points allowed. I like what Van Gundy has done in Orlando, building an up-tempo game around Howard. McMillan won 50 games quicker than I thought he would. Karl was very impressive in making Denver better despite losing Marcus Camby for nothing. Adelman has surived in Houston despite injuries, but needs a playoff win to get noticed.

6th MAN
1. Jason Terry
2. Andrei Kirilenko
3. Lamar Odom
4. Anderson Varejao

Terry wins big as a sub who averaged nearly 20 a game. He also made the Jason Kidd deal look better, as he fits well next to the real point. Kirilenko showed some life with the second unit. Odom might have won this if Andrew Bynum didn't get hurt, making him a starter. Varejao started a lot of games for Cleveland, too, but has really been key to their defense.

MOST IMPROVED
1. Jameer Nelson
2. Danny Granger
3. Nate Robinson
4. Ramon Sessions
5. Wilson Chandler

Nelson wins, despite missing a large chunk of the season. I wasn't sure if he was a starter or should come off the bench, and Orlando was rated very low at point guard, but he worked his way into the all-star game. Granger went from solid player to all-star. Robinson and Chandler thrived in the Knicks' new system, changing them from afterthoughts to key cornerstones. Sessions inexplicably had a hard time getting minutes in Milwaukee before he showed he could be a capable starter.

ALL NBA: LeBron, D Howard, Wade, Kobe, Chris Paul

2ND: Garnett, Duncan, Nowitzki, Pierce, B Roy

3RD: Ming, Billups, Carmelo, T Parker, Bosh

ALL ROOKIE: Rose, B Lopez, Westbrook, Mayo, Gordon

R 2ND: Love, M Gasol, Beasley, Augustin, Chalmers

HM: Fernandez, J Thompson, Oden, C Lee

ALL DEF: D Howard, Garnett, Battier, Wade, Rondo

D 2ND: Varejao, LeBron, Duncan, Artest, C Paul

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

brackets 09

In a saddened state for the pro game, the college game remains strong, because you can't pay the players.... right?

[insert early 90's UNLV joke]

I haven't paid much attention this year, so I am not entering any real (i.e. paid) bracket pools. Not that I ever did.... cough.... but I'm not this year because I didn't study enough, and when I did recently, I found that I liked zero teams to win it all.

That's right, zero.

Usually, there a few teams that feel good, or at least one or two obvious favorites, even if you know they'll probably fail. This year, I have an overwhelming sense of meh about all the big teams. In my previous March Madness columns, I've listed a bunch of rules for eliminating teams. They've been pretty good for me over the years. Eventually, though, the process of elimination only goes so far and you have to pick teams you actually like. This year, I really don't like anyone.

UNC and UConn are big name picks, but they both have key people missing and I wonder about their depth. Pitt always falls apart in the tourney because they don't have shooting. Duke relies too much on shooting and doesn't have enough inside help, which has hurt them for the past 4 years. Michigan State is unimpressive. Kansas and Memphis did surprisingly well considering all the people they lost, but it's hard to make big runs twice with that many changes. Louisville is playing well, but I didn't really hear much about them during the season until they suddenly won the Big East tourney and got a # 1 seed. I watched them to get a view on draft prospect Earl Clark, and nothing really stood out. Oklahoma is intriguing, although I hate to go with a team led by underclassmen, although it doesn't really matter anymore. But they seem too obvious? Maybe?

Those are the top 9 teams in the country, and I have problems with all of them. Someone has to win, but I don't know who. There are some teams in the next range whom I like for upsets - Villanova, Washington, Wake Forest, Arizona State, Missouri, maybe UCLA. I don't like Gonzaga, despite their record. I also think that one of the many Big East teams that isn't getting hype - Nova, Marquette, West Virginia - will go farther than some of the others, like in '96.

My instinctive final four was Washington, Louisville, UNC, and Villanova. Other times, I went with all four # 1 seeds (never would've before last year, but the barrier has been broken). Oklahoma is tempting, but UNC has always been dependable to at least make it to the final four. My trouble bracket this year is Louisville's - I don't feel good about them, Michigan State, or Kansas. Wake Forest could pull it off but they could lose early too.

As for the finals? UNC-Lousiville or UNC-UConn will be popular choices. I said UNC over UW. But I don't trust anyone.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

suck.

I usually go through and post a lengthy review on what trades should have been made and what I think of the ones that were, but it's too depressing this year. No one wants to spend money. Teams passed up easy chances to get better just to save some bucks. Even the big spenders like Portland refused ridiculously one-sided deals in the name of cash.

I really do not like where this season is going. Maybe this is cosmic justice for pro sports, but I'd rather see people win and try to make it look like they care, and then complain later.

The Bulls did nice, I guess. They can probably claim the 8th spot in the east. At least the Hornets didn't horrendously dump Tyson Chandler for nothing (on a default), but there's still time this summer. Alas.

Seriously, it's impossible for me to use the trade machine and get excited about any possibility because I know none of these great trades are realistic. There were a number of contenders that could have used just one more piece and didn't go for it. A few of them have since signed waived guys on the cheap, which is smart, but not likely causing a major shift. Mostly, though, every owner in the league, even the ones with a chance, has turned into Robert Sarver. This is NOT a good thing.

So I can't really write much of a trade posting this year, and it sucks.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

all star picks 09

The starters were announced, and somehow, Tracy McGrady and Yi disappeared. But that's good. I don't have any major objections. I carefully went through and there weren't any starters I wouldn't have picked at all. Iverson is a little questionable, but he's the best bet on a Pistons team that ought to have someone. I can't say no to him.

My west starters: Kobe, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Duncan, Nowitzki

Bench: Yao, Amare, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Melo, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash

Chauncey Billups and David West were kinda tough omissions. In fact, I could change my mind on Nash (not that great this year, but I feel for him) over Billups. If Melo can't play, they should ensure that Billups makes it in. Al Jefferson and Kevin Durant have great numbers, and would be easy picks in the east, but their teams are too bad.

My east starters: Garnett, LeBron, Dwight Howard, Devin Harris, Wade

Bench: Danny Granger, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh, Iverson, Joe Johnson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis

I hated putting in Carter and Lewis, but I couldn't find anyone better. There are no big guys who really deserve it. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler are doing good, but they are hard to differentiate, and the Wizards are terrible. Al Harrington and David Lee put up surprisingly good numbers, but the Knicks and their system may inflate them. Michael Redd, Ben Gordon, Ray Allen.... meh... decent scorers but that's all. I would like to see Derrick Rose, but he just doesn't have enough yet. This is not an inspiring team outside the top eight or nine guys.

Not as important, but always fascinating to me, is the rookie - sophomore challenge. I don't know how to grade sophomores so easily, but rookies are interesting. There are some good stories this year.

ROOKIES - starters - Derrick Rose, O. J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, Michael Beasley, Brook Lopez

Bench - D. J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love

almost - Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jason Thompson

SOPHS - starters - Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Jeff Green, Rodney Stuckey, Al Thornton

Bench - Thad Young, Spencer Hawes, Wilson Chandler, Daequan Cook, Mike Conley

almost - Yi, Marco Bellinelli