Finally, I'm down to the last quarter of this lengthy preview. I love lengthy previews. The only thing left is the Eastern playoff contenders. Weird thing is, I have 9 teams that are legitimate playoff threats... which means one of them is getting left out. Who will that be? It's hard to say this year. Almost every team improved itself, but they all have at least one significant flaw. Some of them benefited from a weaker conference last year (especially everyone in the Atlantic). Where do I put them?
I place them into two groups: the first group is the lower seeds. I think they could all win about 44 games, but that could stretch to 48 or 40 pending on injuries and such. The second group is the real contenders, or so I think.... I can always see one of the lower teams getting hot, but I'm pretty sure these teams are the contenders and can all win 50 games.
It works out evenly: 4 teams in the first group, 4 teams in the second, and one in the middle (Miami) who could go either way. Like I said in the west, perhaps the playoffs pairings will determine who makes it this year. Cleveland benefited a ton last year. Some teams might need a good draw to advance.
So the first group: 40-48 wins, a low seed, a first round loss in the playoffs, and a lottery pick for one of them.
THE MAYBES
ORLANDO MAGIC
Starters: Rashard Lewis, Trevor Ariza, Dwight Howard, Carlos Arroyo, J. J. Redick
Bench: Adonal Foyle, Hedo Turkoglu, Keyon Dooling, Jameer Nelson
Outlook: No team has such a wide range of expectations this year. They could miss the playoffs or win the division. I guess most expert don't see the Southeast as that strong and maybe they can win it with only 44 wins or so. I think they're on the edge of the playoffs, but I can't be certain.
I liked the Lewis signing initially... then when the dollars kept going up, I started to wonder. They didn't HAVE to dump Darko just to sign him; Darko was on his own terms. But they did, and didn't make any moves to get a big guy besides Foyle, a decent backup at best. Then, Tony Battie went down, and they are left with only one true post player in Mr. Howard. I expect him to be fantastic, but I'm not sure if they can board or defend as well this year.
Lewis brings much needed scoring, so that did help. I like this lineup from an offensive standpoint, as they added him and will use Redick more as shooters to space around Howard. Their two points have contrasting styles and can be changed if one goes cold. Ariza is a great defender who is going to get a lot of minutes, and in the east, they can probably still go small a lot. I'd just feel better about them if they had another big guy to help Howard down low.
TORONTO RAPTORS
Starters: Chris Bosh, Jason Kappono, Andrea Bargnani, T. J. Ford, Anthony Parker
Bench: Jorge Garbajosa, Carlos Delfino, Jose Calderon, Juan Dixon
Outlook: No team surprised me more than the Raps last season. I liked their progress from the dreaded Babcock years, but I thought it would take them a while to get back to the playoffs. Yet they did, and handily.
Now, I should be praising them, and I think Bryan Colangelo has done a wonderful, creative job of getting this team back on track. Still, I wonder how much of last season was based on everyone else giving up. Their division was terrible, and they didn't show much in the playoffs. I don't really get this roster, as Bosh is the only guy to fear, but it works, with a lot of depth and shooters to go along with their only star. If Bargnani keeps improving, they'll have a lethal inside-out big man combo like Utah.
I don't know if Kappono was worth the cash, or who I like better between Ford and Calderon. I keep thinking they need a real threat on the perimeter, but they have a lot of guys who can shoot it and they play together well. Once again, they could make me look stupid. But I'm willing to bet that they struggle just a little bit more this year.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Starters: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, Gilbert Arenas, DeShawn Stevenson
Bench: Andray Blatche, Darius Songalia, Antonio Daniels, Nick Young
Outlook: The Wizards have been almost contenders the past few years. They score a ton of points, they're fun to watch, but they have no D or inside game and lose early in the playoffs. I'd like to see them go farther, but with teams improving, I don't know how.
Once again, the key for this team is what they can get out of their big men. Haywood has always been inconsistent, Songalia didn't show much last year, and Etan Thomas is out, taking away muscle. Blatche has shown some good moves, but he's always in trouble for something. If he develops as a post player, they get a whole lot more dangerous.
I like their bench depth, and Young can shoot it. They might be able to move into the upper echelon this year if those things come together. But who's gonna D it up besides Stevenson? And how do Arenas and Jamison play in big contract years? These guys have always been gunners, and the temptation is there. I say they stay where they have been unless good things happen.
NEW JERSEY NETS
Starters: Nenad Kristic, Richard Jefferson, Jason Collins, Jason Kidd, Vince Carter
Bench: Sean Williams, Bostjan Nachbar, Jamaal Magliore, Marcus Williams, Antoine Wright
Outlook: The Nets keep tempting me each year. They have an eye-catching trio on the perimeter. They've got experience. Last year, it looked like they would finally have a big man that could score and take them back to the finals. Then he got hurt, they struggled, and they almost traded Kidd away. But once again, they came on strong at the end of the year, snuck into the sixth seed, and made it to the second round and gave Cleveland a scare.
So, this team can't be counted out. They've rallied from major injuries in the past few years around Kidd and Carter to make it into the playoffs. But can they be counted on? Since 2003, no conference finals. They're getting older. And yet, no one wants to bet against Kidd and a fully healthy team.
Kristic is thus a big key here. If he can stay healthy and build upon his strong opening to last year, they might have one last chance to get Kidd in June. They needed help down low, and they got some nice role players in Magliorre and Sean Williams to form a tough rebounding group with Collins. None of these guys are scorers, though, so Kristic has to be able to produce to keep the offense going.
It would also be a big help if Wright finally put it together. He was projected as a top ten pick in 2005, but the Nets haven't gotten anything out of him yet. They need him in case one of their big three goes down. He has the chance because there aren't any other guards off the bench right now. Nachabr showed some promise last year, and Marcus is a nice young point, but the Nets need some bench and post scoring if they want to be a real contender again.
MIAMI HEAT
Starters: Udonis Haslem, Dorrell Wright, Shaquille O'Neal, Jason Williams, Dwyane Wade
Bench: Mark Blount, Ricky Davis, Smush Parker, Daequean Cook
Outlook: After getting a title, the Heat came out flat last year and barely won a division where everyone else was done for. They got swept in the playoffs right away, and until this trade with Minnesota that is still going through, hadn't made any additions to the roster. So why even include them as a possible contender, let alone playoff team? Two words: Shaq. Wade.
Yes, even with all their problems, Miami still holds two of the league's biggest matchup problems. Wade played at an MVP level before getting hurt, and Shaq showed flashes of his old self. If we could guarantee their health, the Heat would never be a tough choice. But they both have had issues, and Wade begins this season on the sidelines. Their health will simply define if Miami misses the playoffs or gets back to the finals. Anything's possible.
I do like the trade to get Davis and Blount. Both were being shopped by Minnesota and aren't worth their loaded salaries, but are good backups for the Heat. David gives them another wing who can score. Wright is athletic and came on last year, but can't be the only guy. Parker and Cook are decent shooters, but Davis will be a necessary addition, especially when Wade is out. Blount has energy, and brings more post help, which they can always use. And they got rid of 'Toine. Not bad.
If they stay healthy, they could be a force. If not, they could sink quickly. It's all on the Daddy and D Wade.
THE CONTENDERS
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Starters: Drew Gooden, LeBron James, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Daniel Gibson, Larry Hughes
Bench: Donyell Marshall, Cedric Simmons, Sasha Pavlovic, Devin Brown, Damon Jones
Outlook: Cleveland broke through in a big way last year. They made the playoffs as a 2 seed, after a not-too-inspiring regular season, got to the conference finals, then turned it up a notch in overtaking the Pistons. They they got killed in the finals.... so was it all for real or not?
Maybe it's a little bit of both. The Cavs clearly benefited from a weak conference and easy playoff bracket. They play the Pistons tough, and got help from LeBron and Gibson in taking them down. They made a lot of strides, but they're not a title contender yet. Their younger guys are improving, but two contract disputes may have killed their momentum (though Pavlovic is reported to sign soon). They were the best team in the East last year, but everyone else got better. And determined. So it will be a tougher road this year.
I think the absence of Anderson Varejao, if it lasts, will undermine this team. Individually, their frontcourt players are decent, but as a unit, they're surprisingly effective. Everyone hates their O, but they forget that the defense was outstanding last year. The big men rebounding was a huge part of that, espeically Varejao with his energy. Former Hornets first-rounder Simmons could help, but he's still raw. They need the Brazilian big man back.
Of course, most people are wondering about the point guard spot. Gibson came though late last year, but are they safe with him? Rumors of Mike Bibby spread all summer and will continue if Sacramento struggles. I like Gibson, actually. The only reason why his stock fell so much in college is because he couldn't prove himself as a true point guard, just a scorer. But Cleveland's offense doesn't need a point guard with LeBron and Larry handling. All he has to do is hit open shots and defend and he'll be fine.
I don't like the wing pairing, but the Cavs might try a triangle-like offense with it, giving these guys the ball and having everyone feed off them. LeBron looked good in international play during the summer, shooting better and even posting up a little bit. These guys are good scorers and ball handlers, so you'd think they could create an offense around them with shooters, which they do have some of now. If Mike Brown works on it, this offense can be okay.
But will it matter? With all the movement, people are forgetting about the Cavs and wondering if they can keep up now. I say that LeBron keeps them at 50 wins, but unless they get Varejao back soon and figure out an offense, they won't be playing in June again anytime soon.
BOSTON CELTICS
Starters: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rando, Ray Allen
Bench: Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine, James Posey, Tony Allen, Eddie House
Outlook: I already went over the good and bad of this trade after it happened in this post. My prediction hasn't changed. I still think Boston is a major contender and could make it to the finals with some luck.
I'm not so worried about injury issues amongst the big three because a lot of last year was them not hurrying back to play for crappy teams (KG was specifically held out to get a better pick). And they don't have the history of it. So people saying depth and injuries will kill them? Not more than anyone else. And they have some wing depth now with Posey and Tony Allen (albeit TA is coming off major surgery).
It's the post that kind of worries me. I don't think Garnett is slowing down; in fact, I'm sure he'll be rejuvenated playing with good people and in the East. His current attitude proves this. But is anyone else going to help? Davis and Powe are untested, though they did well in college. Scalabrine used to be a nice shooter at the four spot, but hasn't done much in Boston. Pollard was once a great rebounder and hustle defender, but that was a while ago. So I wonder about that.
Still, few people in the East have the big men to take advantage of that. And few have this much talent. I think Boston wins the division handily and gets far in the playoffs, maybe to the finals. Pending on matchups, they might just have enough to make it out.... but probably not this year. They've turned themselves around, and with a few pickups (I have a feeling 'Toine is making another stop here) they can be great again.
CHICAGO BULLS
Starters: Tyrus Thomas, Loul Deng, Ben Wallace, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon
Bench: Joe Smith, Joakim Noah, Andres Nocioini, Chris Duhon, Thabo Selfosha
Outlook: The Bulls came on last year and asserted themselves as the team of the future. Actually, the near-future. They won almost 50 and embarassed Miami in the first round before giving a little fight to Detroit. Now, with their young team getting more experience, they are many experts' favorites to finish first in the East and go to the finals.
Not so fast...
As much potential as this team has, (and yes, I also think they will have the best record in the conference), I see a few trouble spots come playoff time. They still don't have an inside force unless Thomas really comes on; he might be a nice transition guy and get a lot of points that way, but there's no true post player. Smith will help, but they're still primarily a shooting and slashing team. That can still get them to the finals, but I want to wait a year before giving them the absolute crown.
Yes, they have a lot to like right now. Gordon is a deadly shooter who can catch fire and light up anyone for 30 on any night. Deng progressed to a true all-around threat last year. Hinrich is a terrific passer and shooter and defender - the most underrated guard in the lague? Nocioni is an excellent sixth man, and Noah will help Wallace out with rebouding and energy. But will Thomas develop soon? Is Gordon happy? How will they get Noicioni minutes? And what if they need to make plays? Their leadership and post play is jussssssst a little too shaky right now. I'd like to see them face off with Detroit again, or Boston, or Cleveland. I don't know if they could beat any of them in a seven game series yet. But, they're going to be good for a long time.
Of course, I didn't mention the X factor: Kobe. If he comes, they might have the firepower to push over the top. But they might have to give up a lot to get him. But he can say no to that. Rumors are bound to be flying all season until the trade deadline passes - can they ignore them? They've done well so far. Until that happens, I think they're the best regular season team and a nice threat to make noise in the playoffs, but not too far.
Until then....
DETROIT PISTONS
Starters: Antonio McDyess, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton
Bench: Jason Maxiell, Arron Afflalo, Amir Johnson, Nazr Mohammed, Lindsey Hunter, Brandon Stuckey, Jarvis Hayes
Outlook: After I looked at all the possible playofff matches, one team stood out to me - Detroit. I know it's boring, but they've been there every year, and they have a chip on their shoulders now after that ugly Cleveland series. They finally got some young guys to bolster their bench and give their stars some help, which I had been wondering about for years. They're right on the cusp of getting back to the finals.
Why do I like them? Every team in the East has a major flaw, but I think they fixed theirs. They needed scoring and bench help and they have some young guys who are ready to contribute. Maxiell is their next Big Nasty Williamson; he's shown some nice moves down low. Johnson is a decent shot blocker who can run. Hayes gives them scoring from the wing, which they need on the bench. Stuckey is a point who can shoot it, which is a big help (Hunter has been solid for years, but can't drain it). Afflalo adds D when they need it.
One guy who could be pivotal is Mohammed. They signed him to a big deal last year after losing Ben Wallace, but benched him early on. They might have overreacted. He's not Wallace and never has been, but he can board and score a little in limited time. He's a decent backup to have in the mix, and if they use him in that role, they'll have more post depth than anyone in the East besides Cleveland. Putting McDyess in the starting five will help offensively, too.
So, if they can get something out of their post guys, and the young bench, they'll have solved their major problems from the past two years. And I keep looking at them vs. the other contenders and thinking that they can win every match up....
Boston: They have the one guy who can annoy KG in 'Sheed. They have a guy who can annoy Pierce in Prince. They have shooters on both sides (Allen, Hamilton). But Detroit has more depth, and Billups might school Rondo if he's not careful. I think the Pistons would have the slight edge.
Cleveland: They always give the Pistons trouble, but they'll be extra motivated this year. If the Cavs don't have Varejao, their front court is not as terrifying. Every game went down to the wire, and it could have gone wither way without LeBron's heroics. And I don't think they're going to leave Gibson that open again.
Chicago: Detroit took them down last year without too much trouble. I know Cleveland rebounded from that a year earlier, but Detroit never struggled with the Bulls as much as they did in earlier years with the Cavs. They have the post advantage and know how to attack.
So, as much as I hate to say it, I have the Pistons as my favorites to come out of the East. I don't think they'll have the best record, but they should be in the top 3. They just have enough playoff experience and depth now to get by everyone else. It wouldn't surprise me if they came up short again, but I'm going with them.
In the finals? I already said the West was going to own, but a team like Detroit or Boston could cause some trouble. Not enough to win, but it won't be a sweep again.
PHOENIX OVER DETROIT IN SIX
Here's a look at how the east playoff bracket could play out:
1. Chicago over 8. Toronto
5. Detroit over 4. Miami
3. Cleveland over 6. New Jersey
2. Boston over 7. Washington
5. Detroit (with third best record) over 1. Chicago
2. Boston over 3. Cleveland
5. Detroit over 2. Boston
Or this (alternative):
1. Chicago over 8. Orlando
5. Cleveland (with third best record) over 4. Miami
3. Detroit over 6. New Jersey
2. Boston over 7. Toronto
1. Chicago over 5. Cleveland
3. Detroit over 2. Boston
3. Detroit over 1. Chicago
Is this 1991? Are Isiah Thomas, Larry Bird, Mark Price, and Michael Jordan playing again? No, this is a much weaker East, but it's getting better. Funny how things repeat themselves, though.
That's it. I'll check in later with my updates, but this is my official pre-season pick.
SUNS 4, PISTONS 2
Happy Halloween! More once the season starts!
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Monday, October 29, 2007
NBA season preview, part three
Now it's time to look at the actual contenders. These teams will be making the playoffs or getting close. First up is the West, where I see three levels of teams. The first group will fight for the last two playoff spots and win between 36-46 games. The second group has the most elasticity - they could sneak into the conference finals if everything goes right, or they could fall if they have injuries or fighting. They should all win about 50. The last group is the big three that will probably be the best in the whole league, winning more than 55 and giving us the conference (and league) champ.
THE RACE FOR THE LAST TWO
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Starters: Ronny Turiaf, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant
Bench: Brian Cook, Luke Walton, Chris Mihm, Jordan Farmar, Maurice Evans
Outlook: Yeah, yeah, it all depends on Kobe. He's been the whole team for the past few years, so obviously, whatever he does directs how they're going. Right now, this team is probably good enough to win 45 games and slip into the playoffs. But does anyone really expect them to be the same once the season ends?
It will be interesting, aside form seeing Kobe's attitude early on, to see if some of the young guys are stepping up. Bynum and Farmar will be counted upon to prove that they can produce consistently.... and to Kobe that he should stick around. They're the ones to watch - they could still try a trade for another star before they let Kobe go. How some of these tradable assets do is important. So watch Bynum. I will be.
More questions: again, why did they sign Radmanovic when Cook does the same things at the same position better and for less cash??? When will Odom get hurt? Can they throw in Javaris Crittendon and some of those forwards to sweeten a deal? Is Jim Buss sweating right now in some dark room, praying that Bynum will do something and make Kobe forget that they could have Jason Kidd right now? I don't have the answers. Perhaps no one does.
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Starters: David West, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Chris Paul, Morris Peterson
Bench: Hilton Armstrong, Rasual Butler, Julian Wright, Bobby Jackson, Jannero Pargo, Melvin Ely
Outlook: After their impressive near-playoff run two years ago, the Hornets have been through a lot but were tabbed as a certain playoff team last year (by me and others). They didn't pull through, and now, I'm not sure if this team had as bright a future as I thought. Or maybe all the injuries last year held them back. Either way, they're in the mix this year.
My rooting interest in this team remains strong as they employ the only La Sallian in the league right now (Steven Smith was in Atlanta's camp but got cut). They have a likable mix of players, led by Paul, one of the best points around. West isn't an inside threat but still scores and grabs rebounds well. Chandler supplies d and boards. The only thing missing is scoring from the wing. Peja was supposed to add that but got hurt early on, which is scary because he's been missing an awful lot of games the past few years. They singed Mo Pete as insurance, and Wright could be very good soon, but they need Peja to go anywhere. Will he hold up for a whole season? I'd like to think so, but I doubt it.
For that, I rank them as the first team out of the playoffs, but if Peja stays healthy, they should be in. Even if he doesn't, they can take advantage of anyone slipping. Most experts have them ahead of Memphis, so maybe they'll make me look stupid again.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Starters: Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic, Kyle Lowry, Mike Miller
Bench: Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick, Tarence Kinsey, Juan Carlos Navarro, Mike Conley
Outlook: People are very mixed on the Grizz. Some think they will get right back in the playoff race, and that last year was a fluke with injuries and tanking and playing all young guys. Some think they're back to being the bad Grizzlies. I think this team has too much talent to go back to losing. They have a better lineup than two years ago, when they nearly won 50 games. They can benefit from all the teams that aren't ready.
Skeptics will tell you that those teams that Memphis had in the playoffs had veteran leaders and defenders. This team is slightly younger, but some of the key pieces are the same. And they have talent. And scoring. And they finally have a real post rotation, thanks to Darko. He still hasn't proven himself worthy of his draft pick, but he is a decent rebounder and defender, and really the first legitimate center that Gasol has had to work with. They have an energetic bench, bolstered by Spanish import Navarro, who can really light it up.
Two areas of concern: can they decide on point guard play? Conley was the impressive rookie, but he's a little green. Lowry was a late pick a year ago but has impressed. Damon Stoudamire is still here, with lots more experience, but he's never been a passer first. How do they balance trying to win with giving the young guys time? Also, they might want another big man. Swift and Warrick are athletic forwards, but they're not true post players. These are fairly important things to address, and I'm still not sure about their defensive, but I think they have enough to bounce back. They're my last team in, for now.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Starters: Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, Monta Ellis
Bench: Brandan Wright, Matt Barnes, Mikeal Pietrus, Marco Bellinelli, Troy Hudson
Outlook: After years and years of just almost making the playoffs, the Warriors finally made it in, and caused chaos once there. They got hot and shocked Dallas in the first, and then battled Utah. After a summer of expectations (and some KG rumors), they head in with more confidence than they've had since the early 90's.
But are they too confident? They did have to replace Jason Richardson, and they got on an incredible run last year. Some wonder if they can keep it up. I say that they won't be as dangerous but will make the playoffs with a solid team. It helps that the West has a lot of people not ready this year, but they'll be in. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they will be over .500 and fun to watch.
I'm not so worried about Richardson, even though he is a great scorer, because they have scoring. All of these guys can score. This year, I think they'll have a more reasonably-sized lineup, after going small so often last year. They have a nice rotation on the perimeter, and even though their frontcourt will be a bit small, I like Biedrins and I think Wright can play a little because all they want for him now is to run and dunk. Harrington and Barnes aren't big at the four, but they can shoot it.
Yes, there's always the distinct possibility that Davis gets hurt or Jackson acts up. But it seems like everyone likes this system, and I can't see them falling apart after playing so well last year. They can make it, and probably won't pull any upsets.
THE ALMOST CONTENDERS
Can they pull off some upsets? 50 wins is about the norm here.
DENVER NUGGETS
Starters: Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Allen Iverson, J. R. Smith
Bench: Nene Hilario, Steven Hunter, Linus Kleiza, Chucky Atkins
Outlook: Perhaps the hardest team to predict. They could make some noise and run far, or struggle to make the playoffs. The key is the health of their big men and everyone playing well together.
Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen. Martin is coming back from two major knee surgeries. Camby always seems to get hurt at some point. Nene has had troubles. The Nuggs have plenty of depth there, but it's a dropoff in talent without those three.
I do think Melo and Iverson will be okay together, because they realize that they can't do it alone. Bigger question is if J. R. Smith can do much. He was hot early last year, but cooled down considerably after Iverson came in. He doesn't need to do much, just shoot and add some points. If he doesn't go, the Nuggs will have nothing in the backcourt besides Iverson and Atkins.
I'm predicting a hit and miss for these guys. They'll have injuries and some things will go wrong. They'll win around 50 games and get back to the playoffs, but if they get healthy, they could upset some people.
UTAH JAZZ
Starters: Carlos Boozer, Andre Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer
Bench: Paul Millsap, Matt Harpring, Jarron Collins, Jason Hart, Gordon Giricek
Outlook: Utah finally came through last year, after several seasons in building. They made the playoffs and managed to sneak into the conference finals. On that success, they should be a major contender this year. Still, there are problems.
They have a gaping hole at off guard. They've drafted a lot of guys there the past few years, but haven't used them much so far. Brewer is a good athlete who might be able to change that. Kirilenko, for all the ruckus he raised over the summer, is back and motivated, but he's not really best used at the wing. I could see him traded still mainly just for roster balance, nothign personal. But then they wouldn't have their best defender.
They also have to worry about Boozer's health, although Millsap might make up for some of that now. I like this team, but I still don't think it can contend realistically for the big prizes.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Starters: Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Mike James, Tracy McGrady
Bench: Chuck Hayes, Bonzi Wells, Dikembe Mutombo, Rafer Alston, Steve Francis, Luther Head
Outlook: Okay, maybe THIS is the hardest team to predict. They made a ton of improvements to a team that could have gone far and just barely lost out. They managed to win 50 games in a season where they were racked by injuries to their key players; similar injuries kept them out of the playoffs a year before.
This is a deep and hungrier team that returns, and some think they could challange for a conference or even league title. I like a lot of their changes - Scola has been mentioned as a potential star for years and he also allows Hayes to move to the bench, where he is better off; James and draftee Aaron Brooks can shoot it better than their previous point guards; and Wells might give them more lift this year. They are now more assured to win 50 games and probably more.
The big question, aside from avoiding the usual injury bug: how do they balance the guards? Alston was the starter last year but played erratic, Head was a nice bench combo guard, James came back after being traded for Alston two years ago, and Brooks was drafted to add scoring. Then, on top of that, they surprised everyone by bringing back Francis, once the face of the franchise, at a cheap price. Five guys for basically one spot? Strange. I expected James to win it because he can shoot, but reports are that Alston is back in the mix despite his troubles. I guess they're just going to let the best guys play, no matter who they are.
If they can get consistent play from the one and four spots, and the bench, then they can go far. I think they will certainly end McGrady's playoff drought, and could make the conference finals if things go well. I don't know about anything beyond that, but they have some time. They're going to be tough this year and for a while.
THE GOLDEN TRIO
These guys are the cream of the league... they will likely have the three best records and produce the conference and league winner. As usual.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Starters: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, DeSanga Diop, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse
Bench: Nick Fazekas, Devin George, Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, Eddie Jones
Outlook: Everyone wants to know which team will show up: the one that won 67 games or the one that looked lost in the first round of the playoffs? I say that they are still a major title contender, but that loss exposed a lot of flaws. There's no question that they can win 60 games again and be a force. But will they struggle against running teams like Golden State and Phoenix?
A lot of their success depends on Dirk maintaing just enough of a post game to attract defenders. Very few teams have gotten far on jumpers and one-on-one perimeter matchups, which the Mavs rely on. They have a very solid team, built around Dirk, but no other star who can carry then, so he has to be on all the time to give them a chance. They made a few tweaks on teh roster to improve shooting and defense, but nothign major.
I'm wondering if their biggest advantage in the playoffs is how matchups work. If they can avoid Phoenix and Denver and teams that run, they might have a chance to go far. They had problems with the Warriors, sure, but I should also note that they're one of the few teams that can give the Spurs fits. If they keep up how they were playing, and get a few more breaks this time, maybe the bad times won't matter.
In fact, I think that was the irony of last year - they played so hard to get the first seed, so they wouldn't have to face San Antonio or Pheonix early on, but they ended up playing the hottest team with the worst possible matchup for them. So yes, luck has a say in this, even though they are flawed. The regular season is not as meaningless for them as you might think.....
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Starters: Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli
Bench: Robert Horry, Ime Udoka, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Michael Finley
Outlook: I got it right last year by picking these guys. Yeah, they seem to have it every other year. Although, it seems that a lot of people are calling for a repeat, for once. Marc Stein and Bill Simmons make the good point that the only reason to pick against a Spurs repeat is that they've never done it before.
But isn't there a reason why they haven't? I said last year that they had the most urgency of anyone in the league because they knew their window of opportunity with the current cast was closing fast. Can they come back with the same fire? They haven't before. Every team in the league has flaws, and they are the safe and pretty much obvious pick. If anything bad happens to Phoenix and/or Dallas, then they probably will repeat without trouble.
As much as I hate picking against them, I can see one team knocking them off...
PHOENIX SUNS
Starters: Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Raja Bell, Steve Nash
Bench: Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Alando Tucker, D. J. Strawberry
Here's why am I making the case for Phoenix over San Antonio:
1. The sense of urgency has been reversed. The Spurs won, giving a title to Finley and cementing their place in history. So what if they haven't repeated? They've won 3 in 6 years. That's a dynasty whether anyone wants to call it one or not.
Meanwhile, Steve Nash's clock is ticking fast. So is Grant Hill's. And the Suns know this is their last season with Shawn Marion. I think they're way more driven than ever before, and I give a slight edge to them there.
2. Did I mention how pissed the Suns were after that series? The Spurs are always motivated, but they will not have that kind fo fire this year.
3. One of the reasons why it's so hard to repeat is because the playoffs last so freaking long, the finals teams lose a lot of recouperating time. I think this has hurt the Spurs in the past - they've had to play an extra 10-12 games and have their offseason shortended by a whole month. That wears on you.
Granted, they had an easier time this year in the later rounds, handling the Jazz and Cavs, but they still had to play through June while others were getting ready.
4. Last year went down to the wire. Since then, the Suns have added Hill. Amare and Barbosa are still on the way up. Can you say that about San Antonio? Udoka will help, but most of their guys are slowing down.
5. Look, after last year's debacle, and then the Donaghy stuff, Phoenix cannot get a lot of bad calls or their fans will riot. Sure, the league is going to be careful with officiating, but wouldn't Phoenix get a little help? Especially when people are sick of watching the Spurs? And if Chicago or Detroit comes out of the east with no marquee star? I have a suspicious feeling that a certain someone needs the Suns to help restore image. Just saying....
Here's why I am making the case for Phoenix over Dallas:
1. They can go small and cause matchup problems easily.
2. They shoot better.
3. Marion is one of the few defenders flexible enough to guard Dirk.
4. Two years ago, the Suns gave Dallas a fight with no Amare and a hobbled Bell. Ric Bucher once said that they would have won it all if Bell was healthy, which I don't really buy, but anyway, their roster looks a lot better now. Dallas is basically the same.
Do I see problems in Phoenix? Sure. Hill and Nash are always a threat for injuries, and they're not that deep. Their owner is a total cheapskate who could have prevented any question of them ever losing with a few signings and a revesal from their policy to give up every draft pick possible. I did not like them losing Kurt Thomas, and if they signed a big man soon, it would ease my pain.
However, I think a part of this has to do with Diaw. He was a big contributor in the year Amare was hurt, got a big contract, but slipped last year. He didn'tt show up in great shape, but I think his main problem was that he doesn't work well as a wing player in this mix; that's why no one noticed him in Atlanta. Now that Hill is in, Barbosa is commanding a lot of minutes, and Thomas is gone, Diaw will be used only as a post player, which I think will help him. He can give Marion and Amare more breathers than recent. He's not the defender that Thomas was, but he should be better off as an undersized post than as a miscast wing.
Again, signing another shot blocker would greatly ease my pain. Phoenix was allegedly trying hard to convince P. J. Brown to play one more year for them. If thy can get him to Sun City, that would help. And I'd feel safe. But as for now, they are my very cautious pick for the 2008 NBA title.
POSSIBLE PLAYOFF BRACKET:
1. Dallas over 8. Memphis (or New Orleans, doesn't really matter)
2. Phoenix over 7. Golden State
3. San Antonio over 6. Denver
4. Houston over 5. Utah
-----------
1. Dallas over 4. Houston
2. Phoenix over 3. San Antonio
--------------
2. Phoenix over 1. Dallas
-----------
PHOENIX OVER (east winner)
THE RACE FOR THE LAST TWO
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Starters: Ronny Turiaf, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant
Bench: Brian Cook, Luke Walton, Chris Mihm, Jordan Farmar, Maurice Evans
Outlook: Yeah, yeah, it all depends on Kobe. He's been the whole team for the past few years, so obviously, whatever he does directs how they're going. Right now, this team is probably good enough to win 45 games and slip into the playoffs. But does anyone really expect them to be the same once the season ends?
It will be interesting, aside form seeing Kobe's attitude early on, to see if some of the young guys are stepping up. Bynum and Farmar will be counted upon to prove that they can produce consistently.... and to Kobe that he should stick around. They're the ones to watch - they could still try a trade for another star before they let Kobe go. How some of these tradable assets do is important. So watch Bynum. I will be.
More questions: again, why did they sign Radmanovic when Cook does the same things at the same position better and for less cash??? When will Odom get hurt? Can they throw in Javaris Crittendon and some of those forwards to sweeten a deal? Is Jim Buss sweating right now in some dark room, praying that Bynum will do something and make Kobe forget that they could have Jason Kidd right now? I don't have the answers. Perhaps no one does.
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Starters: David West, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Chris Paul, Morris Peterson
Bench: Hilton Armstrong, Rasual Butler, Julian Wright, Bobby Jackson, Jannero Pargo, Melvin Ely
Outlook: After their impressive near-playoff run two years ago, the Hornets have been through a lot but were tabbed as a certain playoff team last year (by me and others). They didn't pull through, and now, I'm not sure if this team had as bright a future as I thought. Or maybe all the injuries last year held them back. Either way, they're in the mix this year.
My rooting interest in this team remains strong as they employ the only La Sallian in the league right now (Steven Smith was in Atlanta's camp but got cut). They have a likable mix of players, led by Paul, one of the best points around. West isn't an inside threat but still scores and grabs rebounds well. Chandler supplies d and boards. The only thing missing is scoring from the wing. Peja was supposed to add that but got hurt early on, which is scary because he's been missing an awful lot of games the past few years. They singed Mo Pete as insurance, and Wright could be very good soon, but they need Peja to go anywhere. Will he hold up for a whole season? I'd like to think so, but I doubt it.
For that, I rank them as the first team out of the playoffs, but if Peja stays healthy, they should be in. Even if he doesn't, they can take advantage of anyone slipping. Most experts have them ahead of Memphis, so maybe they'll make me look stupid again.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Starters: Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic, Kyle Lowry, Mike Miller
Bench: Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick, Tarence Kinsey, Juan Carlos Navarro, Mike Conley
Outlook: People are very mixed on the Grizz. Some think they will get right back in the playoff race, and that last year was a fluke with injuries and tanking and playing all young guys. Some think they're back to being the bad Grizzlies. I think this team has too much talent to go back to losing. They have a better lineup than two years ago, when they nearly won 50 games. They can benefit from all the teams that aren't ready.
Skeptics will tell you that those teams that Memphis had in the playoffs had veteran leaders and defenders. This team is slightly younger, but some of the key pieces are the same. And they have talent. And scoring. And they finally have a real post rotation, thanks to Darko. He still hasn't proven himself worthy of his draft pick, but he is a decent rebounder and defender, and really the first legitimate center that Gasol has had to work with. They have an energetic bench, bolstered by Spanish import Navarro, who can really light it up.
Two areas of concern: can they decide on point guard play? Conley was the impressive rookie, but he's a little green. Lowry was a late pick a year ago but has impressed. Damon Stoudamire is still here, with lots more experience, but he's never been a passer first. How do they balance trying to win with giving the young guys time? Also, they might want another big man. Swift and Warrick are athletic forwards, but they're not true post players. These are fairly important things to address, and I'm still not sure about their defensive, but I think they have enough to bounce back. They're my last team in, for now.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Starters: Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, Monta Ellis
Bench: Brandan Wright, Matt Barnes, Mikeal Pietrus, Marco Bellinelli, Troy Hudson
Outlook: After years and years of just almost making the playoffs, the Warriors finally made it in, and caused chaos once there. They got hot and shocked Dallas in the first, and then battled Utah. After a summer of expectations (and some KG rumors), they head in with more confidence than they've had since the early 90's.
But are they too confident? They did have to replace Jason Richardson, and they got on an incredible run last year. Some wonder if they can keep it up. I say that they won't be as dangerous but will make the playoffs with a solid team. It helps that the West has a lot of people not ready this year, but they'll be in. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they will be over .500 and fun to watch.
I'm not so worried about Richardson, even though he is a great scorer, because they have scoring. All of these guys can score. This year, I think they'll have a more reasonably-sized lineup, after going small so often last year. They have a nice rotation on the perimeter, and even though their frontcourt will be a bit small, I like Biedrins and I think Wright can play a little because all they want for him now is to run and dunk. Harrington and Barnes aren't big at the four, but they can shoot it.
Yes, there's always the distinct possibility that Davis gets hurt or Jackson acts up. But it seems like everyone likes this system, and I can't see them falling apart after playing so well last year. They can make it, and probably won't pull any upsets.
THE ALMOST CONTENDERS
Can they pull off some upsets? 50 wins is about the norm here.
DENVER NUGGETS
Starters: Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Allen Iverson, J. R. Smith
Bench: Nene Hilario, Steven Hunter, Linus Kleiza, Chucky Atkins
Outlook: Perhaps the hardest team to predict. They could make some noise and run far, or struggle to make the playoffs. The key is the health of their big men and everyone playing well together.
Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen. Martin is coming back from two major knee surgeries. Camby always seems to get hurt at some point. Nene has had troubles. The Nuggs have plenty of depth there, but it's a dropoff in talent without those three.
I do think Melo and Iverson will be okay together, because they realize that they can't do it alone. Bigger question is if J. R. Smith can do much. He was hot early last year, but cooled down considerably after Iverson came in. He doesn't need to do much, just shoot and add some points. If he doesn't go, the Nuggs will have nothing in the backcourt besides Iverson and Atkins.
I'm predicting a hit and miss for these guys. They'll have injuries and some things will go wrong. They'll win around 50 games and get back to the playoffs, but if they get healthy, they could upset some people.
UTAH JAZZ
Starters: Carlos Boozer, Andre Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer
Bench: Paul Millsap, Matt Harpring, Jarron Collins, Jason Hart, Gordon Giricek
Outlook: Utah finally came through last year, after several seasons in building. They made the playoffs and managed to sneak into the conference finals. On that success, they should be a major contender this year. Still, there are problems.
They have a gaping hole at off guard. They've drafted a lot of guys there the past few years, but haven't used them much so far. Brewer is a good athlete who might be able to change that. Kirilenko, for all the ruckus he raised over the summer, is back and motivated, but he's not really best used at the wing. I could see him traded still mainly just for roster balance, nothign personal. But then they wouldn't have their best defender.
They also have to worry about Boozer's health, although Millsap might make up for some of that now. I like this team, but I still don't think it can contend realistically for the big prizes.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Starters: Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Mike James, Tracy McGrady
Bench: Chuck Hayes, Bonzi Wells, Dikembe Mutombo, Rafer Alston, Steve Francis, Luther Head
Outlook: Okay, maybe THIS is the hardest team to predict. They made a ton of improvements to a team that could have gone far and just barely lost out. They managed to win 50 games in a season where they were racked by injuries to their key players; similar injuries kept them out of the playoffs a year before.
This is a deep and hungrier team that returns, and some think they could challange for a conference or even league title. I like a lot of their changes - Scola has been mentioned as a potential star for years and he also allows Hayes to move to the bench, where he is better off; James and draftee Aaron Brooks can shoot it better than their previous point guards; and Wells might give them more lift this year. They are now more assured to win 50 games and probably more.
The big question, aside from avoiding the usual injury bug: how do they balance the guards? Alston was the starter last year but played erratic, Head was a nice bench combo guard, James came back after being traded for Alston two years ago, and Brooks was drafted to add scoring. Then, on top of that, they surprised everyone by bringing back Francis, once the face of the franchise, at a cheap price. Five guys for basically one spot? Strange. I expected James to win it because he can shoot, but reports are that Alston is back in the mix despite his troubles. I guess they're just going to let the best guys play, no matter who they are.
If they can get consistent play from the one and four spots, and the bench, then they can go far. I think they will certainly end McGrady's playoff drought, and could make the conference finals if things go well. I don't know about anything beyond that, but they have some time. They're going to be tough this year and for a while.
THE GOLDEN TRIO
These guys are the cream of the league... they will likely have the three best records and produce the conference and league winner. As usual.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Starters: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, DeSanga Diop, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse
Bench: Nick Fazekas, Devin George, Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, Eddie Jones
Outlook: Everyone wants to know which team will show up: the one that won 67 games or the one that looked lost in the first round of the playoffs? I say that they are still a major title contender, but that loss exposed a lot of flaws. There's no question that they can win 60 games again and be a force. But will they struggle against running teams like Golden State and Phoenix?
A lot of their success depends on Dirk maintaing just enough of a post game to attract defenders. Very few teams have gotten far on jumpers and one-on-one perimeter matchups, which the Mavs rely on. They have a very solid team, built around Dirk, but no other star who can carry then, so he has to be on all the time to give them a chance. They made a few tweaks on teh roster to improve shooting and defense, but nothign major.
I'm wondering if their biggest advantage in the playoffs is how matchups work. If they can avoid Phoenix and Denver and teams that run, they might have a chance to go far. They had problems with the Warriors, sure, but I should also note that they're one of the few teams that can give the Spurs fits. If they keep up how they were playing, and get a few more breaks this time, maybe the bad times won't matter.
In fact, I think that was the irony of last year - they played so hard to get the first seed, so they wouldn't have to face San Antonio or Pheonix early on, but they ended up playing the hottest team with the worst possible matchup for them. So yes, luck has a say in this, even though they are flawed. The regular season is not as meaningless for them as you might think.....
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Starters: Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli
Bench: Robert Horry, Ime Udoka, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Michael Finley
Outlook: I got it right last year by picking these guys. Yeah, they seem to have it every other year. Although, it seems that a lot of people are calling for a repeat, for once. Marc Stein and Bill Simmons make the good point that the only reason to pick against a Spurs repeat is that they've never done it before.
But isn't there a reason why they haven't? I said last year that they had the most urgency of anyone in the league because they knew their window of opportunity with the current cast was closing fast. Can they come back with the same fire? They haven't before. Every team in the league has flaws, and they are the safe and pretty much obvious pick. If anything bad happens to Phoenix and/or Dallas, then they probably will repeat without trouble.
As much as I hate picking against them, I can see one team knocking them off...
PHOENIX SUNS
Starters: Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Raja Bell, Steve Nash
Bench: Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Alando Tucker, D. J. Strawberry
Here's why am I making the case for Phoenix over San Antonio:
1. The sense of urgency has been reversed. The Spurs won, giving a title to Finley and cementing their place in history. So what if they haven't repeated? They've won 3 in 6 years. That's a dynasty whether anyone wants to call it one or not.
Meanwhile, Steve Nash's clock is ticking fast. So is Grant Hill's. And the Suns know this is their last season with Shawn Marion. I think they're way more driven than ever before, and I give a slight edge to them there.
2. Did I mention how pissed the Suns were after that series? The Spurs are always motivated, but they will not have that kind fo fire this year.
3. One of the reasons why it's so hard to repeat is because the playoffs last so freaking long, the finals teams lose a lot of recouperating time. I think this has hurt the Spurs in the past - they've had to play an extra 10-12 games and have their offseason shortended by a whole month. That wears on you.
Granted, they had an easier time this year in the later rounds, handling the Jazz and Cavs, but they still had to play through June while others were getting ready.
4. Last year went down to the wire. Since then, the Suns have added Hill. Amare and Barbosa are still on the way up. Can you say that about San Antonio? Udoka will help, but most of their guys are slowing down.
5. Look, after last year's debacle, and then the Donaghy stuff, Phoenix cannot get a lot of bad calls or their fans will riot. Sure, the league is going to be careful with officiating, but wouldn't Phoenix get a little help? Especially when people are sick of watching the Spurs? And if Chicago or Detroit comes out of the east with no marquee star? I have a suspicious feeling that a certain someone needs the Suns to help restore image. Just saying....
Here's why I am making the case for Phoenix over Dallas:
1. They can go small and cause matchup problems easily.
2. They shoot better.
3. Marion is one of the few defenders flexible enough to guard Dirk.
4. Two years ago, the Suns gave Dallas a fight with no Amare and a hobbled Bell. Ric Bucher once said that they would have won it all if Bell was healthy, which I don't really buy, but anyway, their roster looks a lot better now. Dallas is basically the same.
Do I see problems in Phoenix? Sure. Hill and Nash are always a threat for injuries, and they're not that deep. Their owner is a total cheapskate who could have prevented any question of them ever losing with a few signings and a revesal from their policy to give up every draft pick possible. I did not like them losing Kurt Thomas, and if they signed a big man soon, it would ease my pain.
However, I think a part of this has to do with Diaw. He was a big contributor in the year Amare was hurt, got a big contract, but slipped last year. He didn'tt show up in great shape, but I think his main problem was that he doesn't work well as a wing player in this mix; that's why no one noticed him in Atlanta. Now that Hill is in, Barbosa is commanding a lot of minutes, and Thomas is gone, Diaw will be used only as a post player, which I think will help him. He can give Marion and Amare more breathers than recent. He's not the defender that Thomas was, but he should be better off as an undersized post than as a miscast wing.
Again, signing another shot blocker would greatly ease my pain. Phoenix was allegedly trying hard to convince P. J. Brown to play one more year for them. If thy can get him to Sun City, that would help. And I'd feel safe. But as for now, they are my very cautious pick for the 2008 NBA title.
POSSIBLE PLAYOFF BRACKET:
1. Dallas over 8. Memphis (or New Orleans, doesn't really matter)
2. Phoenix over 7. Golden State
3. San Antonio over 6. Denver
4. Houston over 5. Utah
-----------
1. Dallas over 4. Houston
2. Phoenix over 3. San Antonio
--------------
2. Phoenix over 1. Dallas
-----------
PHOENIX OVER (east winner)
Friday, October 26, 2007
NBA preview, part two
In this portion, I am previewing teams one by one. This year, it seems like they can all be divided into groups. Let's start off with the lottery bound dregs. There are a lot this year, despite all the progress made over the summer. That's not necessarily a bad thing.... a lot of these teams can have bright futures if they work it out right. Some of them are in the rebuilding mode and they know it. Some are trying to get better and build for the playoffs.
Interestingly, most of the teams strictly in rebuilding mode are in the West, while in the East, everyone thinks they have a shot at the playoffs. I guess this is based on last year's rampant tanking in the East (and West) to get the draft. Since this draft is still relatively unknown, with no superstars yet, most teams have more incentive to prove they're ready. This ought to make for a much more interesting playoff race.
In the West, the last two playoff spots will be a fun race to watch as the Lakers (if they don't trade Kobe and get wild), Warriors, Grizzlies, and Hornets will battle it out, barring anything crazy. In the East, every team strengthened itself (except maybe Cleveland and Indiana), and, after those top four or five teams, everyone thinks they have a shot at the playoffs.
First group up: the lonesome crowded West basement. Teams in this group have injuries or youth movements going on after trading away big names. In a few years, they could all be good if they keep building. At least these teams have more hope than the cellar-dwellers of the past. No mid-90's Clippers or Kings or Timberwolves here...
... although those teams are all actually here. Alas.
Teams in this group should win between 20-35 games. Honestly, it's hard for me to put them in order. I gave you my projected win totals for all last time, but they could all win like 29 games and I wouldn't be surprised.
LONESOME CROWDED WEST BASEMENT
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Starters: Ryan Gomes, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson, Randy Foye, Greg Buckner
Bench: Wayne Simien, Craig Smith, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Rashad McCants
Outlook: In the first year post KG, the Wolves will suck. This much is known. If they sucked when KG was trying his damndest the past few years to win, they're definitely going to suck without him. But they have some nice young players, and they also have some vets who could bring cap relief or draft picks in trades. They need to jettison all those guys and start over.
They also need to see who's worth keeping. Jefferson, the key piece of the KG deal, is a sure bet to be a good post player. Randy Foye looked good last year, and his progress as a point should continue. They need to see if Brewer, McCants, or Green can step up and help them on the wing. And can Telfair do anything? If so, they might have more pieces in place than we thought. But it won't happen this year.
Semi-update: Right before I posted this, I heard about the Miami trade. That's good; this is what they need to do. They gave up Mark Blount and Ricky Davis for contracts that will expire a little sooner ('Toine, who will probably be bought out), a draft pick, and Simien, who might be a decent forward. They'll find out. Now if they could only move Buckner, Juwon Howard, and Marko Jaric, they might get rid of all those terrible signings McHale made.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Starters: Tim Thomas (Elton Brand might come back), Corey Magette, Chris Kamen, Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobely
Bench: Al Thornton, Josh Powell, Brevin Knight, Quentin Ross, Ruben Patterson
Outlook: After narrowly missing the playoffs last year, the Clippers figured they would make a few small moves and try again. Even though Shaun Livingston suffered a terrible injury, they hoped to add a few veterans and maybe make another run. Then Elton Brand went down, and even though he wants to come back late in the year, the Clippers are a mess without him.
Without those two guys, this roster quickly went downhill. Magette is the only reliable scorer, and he's has issues with coaches for years. Knight is a solid replacement for a year, but with Cassell older and probably wanting out, he's the only real passer on the team. Patterson was an odd signing, as he does the same things Ross does, but he's older. Thomas is up and down and shouldn't be starting for anyone. Kamen took a major step backwards last year, and he doesn't have a backup to challenge him. Thornton was a nice pick, but he may be too similar to Magette in style.
Unless Brand gets back really soon, they're going to struggle. I don't know who will score points other than Magette, Thomas, and Mobely jacking it up. Not fun to watch. If this were another team, I might predict them to pull together and overcome adversity.
But it's the Clippers.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Starters: LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Joel Pryzbilla, Jarret Jack, Brandon Roy
Bench: Channing Frye, Martell Webster, Steve Blake, James Jones
Outlook: We all know they're hoping Oden is NOT the next Sam Bowie and that they're pissed that they will miss out on the playoffs. In truth, I never thought they were playoff material this year, even if Oden came in and did well. Now, without him, there's no way. they're too green.
They still have a good future, though. Aldridge will get plenty of time and experience this year, as will Webster and Outlaw. They can figure out their point guard situation, as four guys have all impressed, but none looks like a starter yet. Roy will continue to assert himself as one of the best young guards. Maybe Frye and Josh McRoberts can get some valuable burn.
This might be a lost year for Portland, but they shouldn't be so mad. Assuming Oden is okay, they will have a great foundation and they could use another wing in the draft. So don't tell me they're disappointed. All those people who bought season tickets to see a playoff team should have waited anyway.
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS
Starters: Chris Wilcox, Jeff Green, Robert Swift, Luke Ridnour, Kevin Durant
Bench: Nick Collison, Kurt Thomas, Wally Szczerbiak, Earl Watson, Delonte West
Outlook: The Sonics were happy to let Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen go, as they weren't getting them to the playoffs by themselves. They were even happier to get Durant, along with the very solid Green, in the draft. So even as this team deals with potential moving issues (note to owners: it's not worth it; JUST STAY THERE!) and inexperience, they've set themselves up nicely.
Durant will be the main scorer right form the beginning, to groom him for that role, but this team has lots of questions to also answer. Are any of these young centers worth it? Will anyone step up big at the point? Do they keep Wally and Kurt for the cap relief, or will they be able to find some nice trades?
The talent level on this team isn't bad, and they actually have nice depth, but they'll probably push out the veterans to give the young guys time. They should be a mid lottery team.
SACRAMENTO KINGS
Starters: Kenny Thomas, Ron Artest, Brad Miller, Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin
Bench: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Mikki Moore, Quincy Douby, John Salmons
Outlook: This is the real enigma of these lottery teams. They could completely fall apart and mutiny on their coach, or they could sneak into the playoffs. I don't know which will happen. They have talent, but a lot of their guys are old, injured, or burnt out. Or all three.
Last year, they never looked right, never jelled, and ended up closer to the bottom than the top. They were a late lottery team, but they could have fallen more with a few more losses. For a team picked to make the playoffs, and had done so since 1998, it was a disappointment. Thomas, Miller, and Abdur-Rahim are slowing and not worth their huge contracts. Artest and Bibby didn't seem to play with any fire. Martin was great and will be a great scorer for a long time, but he was the only bright spot.
So now what? They dumped Eric Musselman and brought in Reggie Theus, who was a popular guy but never seemed like coaching material. Will it change anything? Will they ship Bibby to Cleveland, as rumored so often lately? Could they trade Artest? Or will they pull it together and make a playoff run? I'm leaning towards a disaster, but you can never be sure with this team.
THE EASTERNS: SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE?
The East basement is hard to sort out as well because all of these teams now have incentive to win. And most of them have improved. Out of this group, I think Philly is the worst, while Milwaukee and Atlanta have a shot at reaching 40 wins. But to me, they could all win 34 games, and once again, it's hard to seperate them.
I say Philly and Indiana, even though they came the closest last year, have the worst shot. Indiana is in a state of flux and can't commit to rebuilding yet, even though they should. They could get close to the playoffs or blow it up. The hometowners, as much as it pains me, probably benefitted last year as one of the few teams in the East actually trying to win. It will be harder now. Everyone else could sneak into the playoffs if one of the contenders slips, or they could lose 50 again. Who knows...
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Starters: Reggie Evans, Kyle Korver, Sam Dalembert, Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala
Bench: Jason Smith, Willie Green, Thaddeous Young, Rodney Carney
Outlook: I don't think I've been as outraged at the old mates as I was last year. Well, as the blog title suggests, I guess it's not as bad as dumping Barkley and then drafting a frontline of two huge busts. At least they got some draft picks, cap space, and Andre Miller out of the Iverson deal. And they've drafted okay decently. I wanted them to tank, and tank hard, after the trade to get a front line star, but their late-season run inspired a lot of people and gave us all of Southeastern PA hope.
But will it mean anything? I think they were doing good because everyone they played had quit. Looking at talent, I don't see how they can contend for the playoffs with one scorer and nothing offensively in the post... and that scorer is not Iverson. Iggy stepped up and showed he could be a star last year, but do I expect him to get 25 a night? No way. He's good, but a franchise player is still needed to get this team on top.
I didn't understand the logic of taking a wing in the draft when they had a few, including their lottery pick from last year. But, Thaddeous Young was the best athlete available and has loads of potential, and there weren't any big men worth taking then. It would be nice if he develops as an atheltic counterpart to Iggy, since I think Korver and Green are better suited coming off the bench. I do like picking up Reggie Evans; he and Dalembert together will improve the D tremendously. They won't score, but rook Smith has a smooth jumper for a big man and will get playing time right away.
I don't expect any runs this year, but I would like to see Young and Smith get some time and for them to draft another big soon. Some guy from Kansas State is rated as the number two pick at power forward. I suppose I'll be checking in on them soon.
INDIANA PACERS
Starters: Jermaine O'Neal, Danny Granger, Jeff Foster, Jamaal Tinsley, Marquis Daniels
Bench: Ike Diogu, Troy Murphy, Shawne Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Travis Diener
Outlook: Not good. Indiana was supposed to be a lock for the playoffs, but couldn't get in despite lots of teams tanking and a lack of great teams. They were close, but if they didn't get in last year, they're not getting in this year. How did they go from 60 wins just a few years ago to this?
Two trades killed them: the Artest for Peja (hard to see him leave, although he's been hurt), which left them without an outside compliment to JO, and then the surprising Golden State mega-trade last year that changed things dramatically for each team. They wanted to dump Stephen Jackson, but in doing so, they were left without a starting two guard or a legitimate second scorer. It was JO and a very blah lineup. The one nice part of the deal was picking up Diogu, but why covet him when he's behind JO, Murphy, and Foster? He makes dealing JO a little easier, so why not just pull the plug?
This might be the worst backcourt in the league. Daniels is a decent backup, not a starter. Dunleavy is an overpaid shooter who can't play too much at guard because he will kill defensively. Tinsley used to be a decent starting point, but injuries have ruined him. He's barely played the past few years. Diener was signed on the cheap and can shoot it, but how will handle all those minutes when Tinsely inevitably goes down?
I was shocked that the Warriors could trade Murphy or Dunealvy after giving them hefty contracts, and Indiana has both of them now. Murphy could be a nice inside-out tandem with JO, but that's not enough. They have the pieces to make deals; JO and Foster will command good packages from contenders, and they're not worth much here anymore. Granger is very solid, but will never be a star. They've slowly deteriorated... I think their only choice is to pull teh plug. It's hard to do. But this team isn't going anywhere soon.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Starters: Walter Hermann, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Ray Felton, Jason Richardson
Bench: Matt Carroll, Primoz Breznec, Ryan Hollins, Jeff McInnis, Jared Dudley
Outlook: After trading away their pick for Richardson and re-signing Wallace, a lot of people starting talking playoffs for the newest team. I wasn't so sure, but they certainly have made themselves better... but now they're struggling to find ways to keep everyone healthy. Sean May and Adam Morrsion are gone, and May was the only other true post threat besides Okafor. They were a borderline playoff team for me before that, and now, I think they're out.
It's ironic that they now have a glut of wings but no big men, as the first years of their existence, it was the opposite. They never had much perimeter scoring or depth. Richardson, honestly, is the first good shooting guard they've ever had. This lineup is decent, but they need some rebounding.
Still, this team is pregressing nicely and one Michael Jordan seems to have them in the right direction. With another big man in the draft (Roy Hibbert?) and continued development from Felton, and a full season of Hermann getting time, I think they'll be a threat next year. Not now, unless they're lucky.
NEW YORK KNICKS
Starters: Zach Randolph, Jared Jeffries, Eddy Curry, Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford
Bench: David Lee, Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson, Renaldo Balkman
Outlook: Ah, my favorite punchline, the Knicks. Quite a summer for them, eh? Isiah adds to his long list of embarassments, Marbury appears to be crazy, and yet they manage to trade Stevie Franchise for something and get some more young kids in. They have a decent team on paper, but will they mesh on court? I'm skeptical.
This is not a bad lineup in terms of talent. Curry and Randolph are good low post scorers, Balkman, Lee, and Jeffries can add defense and hustle, and Crawford and Q Rich can shoot it. But will it all fit? I don't know if Curry and Randolph can co-exist. I don't know how to find time for everyone. Lee is a great rebounder but will he play much? How do you balance Crawford and all the wings? And does any of it matter when Marbury is erratic?
They're too talented to lose big this year, but I don't see a playoff run unless a lot of teams above them trip or they all have miraculous changes in attitude. I'm not counting on that.
ATLANTA HAWKS
Starters: Al Horford, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Acie Law, Joe Johnson
Bench: Zaza Pachulia, Shelden Williams, Josh Childress, Speedy Claxton
Outlook: The best for the Hawks in years. Even though they kept making weird draft picsk, eventually, they figured it out and put together a nice team. I think they can challenge for a playoff spot this year, and for the future.
Horford is a big help down low. He has the skills to be a good four immediately. Marvin Williams is still developing, but he made strides last year and has the chance to play. Joe Johnson may not be a franchise guy, but he is an easy all-star pick. Childress, Shelden, and Claxton were struggling as starters but should make good subs.
Some questions: is Acie Law ready? He's got more offense than any other point, and he's not a teenager, so he should be able to contribute. Is Josh Smith ready for a way out? He's athletic as hell, but has clashed with coaches... but he is from here, and a fan favorite.
I like this team. I think they can go small and win some games with a fast lineup. The progress of the rookies and Smith's attitude will determine if they finally have a future.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Starters: Charlie Villanueva, Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Mo Williams, Michael Redd
Bench: Yi Jianlin, Desmond Mason, Charlie Bell, Dan Gadzuric
Outlook: After all the turmoil last season and during the draft, Milwuakee should be back in the running. Injuries killed them last year, but they still have a lot to worry about. Besides the testy situation with Yi, they have to find some defense and passing somewhere. This team can score in bunches, especially from outside, but they have to get some stops and boards to win.
Last year, it seemed like the Bucks spent a lot of time having Williams, Redd, and Bell chuck up shots while no one rebounded or defended. It didn't work. Williams surprised a lot of people by putting up decent scoring numbers after T.J. Ford left, but he needs to be more of a passer this year. He has scorers everywhere, and he needs to find them. Bogut must prove that he can give them something down low. Villanueva has to show the fire from his rookei year. Simmons and Mason just have to play D and get their shots when they can.
I'm still a little puzzled about the drafting of Yi. Along with the initial balking his camp pulled, he seems too much like their current big guys to help. He's more of a shooter and offensive force with not much d or rebounding. Villanueva, Bogut, and Gadzuric already did that. I wondered why they didn't go with Joakim Noah or Julian Wright, but they like his skills. They did bring in Michael Ruffin and Jake Voshkuhl for some muscle off the bench, but will they play much with Yi guaranteed time?
This team made the playoffs with a less talented but similar crew two years ago, and they can get close again if they play together. Redd is still a lights out shooter and they have the ability to score with anyone, but will they? I think they're the closest of this group but will fall just short of the postseason.
Interestingly, most of the teams strictly in rebuilding mode are in the West, while in the East, everyone thinks they have a shot at the playoffs. I guess this is based on last year's rampant tanking in the East (and West) to get the draft. Since this draft is still relatively unknown, with no superstars yet, most teams have more incentive to prove they're ready. This ought to make for a much more interesting playoff race.
In the West, the last two playoff spots will be a fun race to watch as the Lakers (if they don't trade Kobe and get wild), Warriors, Grizzlies, and Hornets will battle it out, barring anything crazy. In the East, every team strengthened itself (except maybe Cleveland and Indiana), and, after those top four or five teams, everyone thinks they have a shot at the playoffs.
First group up: the lonesome crowded West basement. Teams in this group have injuries or youth movements going on after trading away big names. In a few years, they could all be good if they keep building. At least these teams have more hope than the cellar-dwellers of the past. No mid-90's Clippers or Kings or Timberwolves here...
... although those teams are all actually here. Alas.
Teams in this group should win between 20-35 games. Honestly, it's hard for me to put them in order. I gave you my projected win totals for all last time, but they could all win like 29 games and I wouldn't be surprised.
LONESOME CROWDED WEST BASEMENT
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Starters: Ryan Gomes, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson, Randy Foye, Greg Buckner
Bench: Wayne Simien, Craig Smith, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Rashad McCants
Outlook: In the first year post KG, the Wolves will suck. This much is known. If they sucked when KG was trying his damndest the past few years to win, they're definitely going to suck without him. But they have some nice young players, and they also have some vets who could bring cap relief or draft picks in trades. They need to jettison all those guys and start over.
They also need to see who's worth keeping. Jefferson, the key piece of the KG deal, is a sure bet to be a good post player. Randy Foye looked good last year, and his progress as a point should continue. They need to see if Brewer, McCants, or Green can step up and help them on the wing. And can Telfair do anything? If so, they might have more pieces in place than we thought. But it won't happen this year.
Semi-update: Right before I posted this, I heard about the Miami trade. That's good; this is what they need to do. They gave up Mark Blount and Ricky Davis for contracts that will expire a little sooner ('Toine, who will probably be bought out), a draft pick, and Simien, who might be a decent forward. They'll find out. Now if they could only move Buckner, Juwon Howard, and Marko Jaric, they might get rid of all those terrible signings McHale made.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Starters: Tim Thomas (Elton Brand might come back), Corey Magette, Chris Kamen, Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobely
Bench: Al Thornton, Josh Powell, Brevin Knight, Quentin Ross, Ruben Patterson
Outlook: After narrowly missing the playoffs last year, the Clippers figured they would make a few small moves and try again. Even though Shaun Livingston suffered a terrible injury, they hoped to add a few veterans and maybe make another run. Then Elton Brand went down, and even though he wants to come back late in the year, the Clippers are a mess without him.
Without those two guys, this roster quickly went downhill. Magette is the only reliable scorer, and he's has issues with coaches for years. Knight is a solid replacement for a year, but with Cassell older and probably wanting out, he's the only real passer on the team. Patterson was an odd signing, as he does the same things Ross does, but he's older. Thomas is up and down and shouldn't be starting for anyone. Kamen took a major step backwards last year, and he doesn't have a backup to challenge him. Thornton was a nice pick, but he may be too similar to Magette in style.
Unless Brand gets back really soon, they're going to struggle. I don't know who will score points other than Magette, Thomas, and Mobely jacking it up. Not fun to watch. If this were another team, I might predict them to pull together and overcome adversity.
But it's the Clippers.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Starters: LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Joel Pryzbilla, Jarret Jack, Brandon Roy
Bench: Channing Frye, Martell Webster, Steve Blake, James Jones
Outlook: We all know they're hoping Oden is NOT the next Sam Bowie and that they're pissed that they will miss out on the playoffs. In truth, I never thought they were playoff material this year, even if Oden came in and did well. Now, without him, there's no way. they're too green.
They still have a good future, though. Aldridge will get plenty of time and experience this year, as will Webster and Outlaw. They can figure out their point guard situation, as four guys have all impressed, but none looks like a starter yet. Roy will continue to assert himself as one of the best young guards. Maybe Frye and Josh McRoberts can get some valuable burn.
This might be a lost year for Portland, but they shouldn't be so mad. Assuming Oden is okay, they will have a great foundation and they could use another wing in the draft. So don't tell me they're disappointed. All those people who bought season tickets to see a playoff team should have waited anyway.
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS
Starters: Chris Wilcox, Jeff Green, Robert Swift, Luke Ridnour, Kevin Durant
Bench: Nick Collison, Kurt Thomas, Wally Szczerbiak, Earl Watson, Delonte West
Outlook: The Sonics were happy to let Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen go, as they weren't getting them to the playoffs by themselves. They were even happier to get Durant, along with the very solid Green, in the draft. So even as this team deals with potential moving issues (note to owners: it's not worth it; JUST STAY THERE!) and inexperience, they've set themselves up nicely.
Durant will be the main scorer right form the beginning, to groom him for that role, but this team has lots of questions to also answer. Are any of these young centers worth it? Will anyone step up big at the point? Do they keep Wally and Kurt for the cap relief, or will they be able to find some nice trades?
The talent level on this team isn't bad, and they actually have nice depth, but they'll probably push out the veterans to give the young guys time. They should be a mid lottery team.
SACRAMENTO KINGS
Starters: Kenny Thomas, Ron Artest, Brad Miller, Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin
Bench: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Mikki Moore, Quincy Douby, John Salmons
Outlook: This is the real enigma of these lottery teams. They could completely fall apart and mutiny on their coach, or they could sneak into the playoffs. I don't know which will happen. They have talent, but a lot of their guys are old, injured, or burnt out. Or all three.
Last year, they never looked right, never jelled, and ended up closer to the bottom than the top. They were a late lottery team, but they could have fallen more with a few more losses. For a team picked to make the playoffs, and had done so since 1998, it was a disappointment. Thomas, Miller, and Abdur-Rahim are slowing and not worth their huge contracts. Artest and Bibby didn't seem to play with any fire. Martin was great and will be a great scorer for a long time, but he was the only bright spot.
So now what? They dumped Eric Musselman and brought in Reggie Theus, who was a popular guy but never seemed like coaching material. Will it change anything? Will they ship Bibby to Cleveland, as rumored so often lately? Could they trade Artest? Or will they pull it together and make a playoff run? I'm leaning towards a disaster, but you can never be sure with this team.
THE EASTERNS: SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE?
The East basement is hard to sort out as well because all of these teams now have incentive to win. And most of them have improved. Out of this group, I think Philly is the worst, while Milwaukee and Atlanta have a shot at reaching 40 wins. But to me, they could all win 34 games, and once again, it's hard to seperate them.
I say Philly and Indiana, even though they came the closest last year, have the worst shot. Indiana is in a state of flux and can't commit to rebuilding yet, even though they should. They could get close to the playoffs or blow it up. The hometowners, as much as it pains me, probably benefitted last year as one of the few teams in the East actually trying to win. It will be harder now. Everyone else could sneak into the playoffs if one of the contenders slips, or they could lose 50 again. Who knows...
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Starters: Reggie Evans, Kyle Korver, Sam Dalembert, Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala
Bench: Jason Smith, Willie Green, Thaddeous Young, Rodney Carney
Outlook: I don't think I've been as outraged at the old mates as I was last year. Well, as the blog title suggests, I guess it's not as bad as dumping Barkley and then drafting a frontline of two huge busts. At least they got some draft picks, cap space, and Andre Miller out of the Iverson deal. And they've drafted okay decently. I wanted them to tank, and tank hard, after the trade to get a front line star, but their late-season run inspired a lot of people and gave us all of Southeastern PA hope.
But will it mean anything? I think they were doing good because everyone they played had quit. Looking at talent, I don't see how they can contend for the playoffs with one scorer and nothing offensively in the post... and that scorer is not Iverson. Iggy stepped up and showed he could be a star last year, but do I expect him to get 25 a night? No way. He's good, but a franchise player is still needed to get this team on top.
I didn't understand the logic of taking a wing in the draft when they had a few, including their lottery pick from last year. But, Thaddeous Young was the best athlete available and has loads of potential, and there weren't any big men worth taking then. It would be nice if he develops as an atheltic counterpart to Iggy, since I think Korver and Green are better suited coming off the bench. I do like picking up Reggie Evans; he and Dalembert together will improve the D tremendously. They won't score, but rook Smith has a smooth jumper for a big man and will get playing time right away.
I don't expect any runs this year, but I would like to see Young and Smith get some time and for them to draft another big soon. Some guy from Kansas State is rated as the number two pick at power forward. I suppose I'll be checking in on them soon.
INDIANA PACERS
Starters: Jermaine O'Neal, Danny Granger, Jeff Foster, Jamaal Tinsley, Marquis Daniels
Bench: Ike Diogu, Troy Murphy, Shawne Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Travis Diener
Outlook: Not good. Indiana was supposed to be a lock for the playoffs, but couldn't get in despite lots of teams tanking and a lack of great teams. They were close, but if they didn't get in last year, they're not getting in this year. How did they go from 60 wins just a few years ago to this?
Two trades killed them: the Artest for Peja (hard to see him leave, although he's been hurt), which left them without an outside compliment to JO, and then the surprising Golden State mega-trade last year that changed things dramatically for each team. They wanted to dump Stephen Jackson, but in doing so, they were left without a starting two guard or a legitimate second scorer. It was JO and a very blah lineup. The one nice part of the deal was picking up Diogu, but why covet him when he's behind JO, Murphy, and Foster? He makes dealing JO a little easier, so why not just pull the plug?
This might be the worst backcourt in the league. Daniels is a decent backup, not a starter. Dunleavy is an overpaid shooter who can't play too much at guard because he will kill defensively. Tinsley used to be a decent starting point, but injuries have ruined him. He's barely played the past few years. Diener was signed on the cheap and can shoot it, but how will handle all those minutes when Tinsely inevitably goes down?
I was shocked that the Warriors could trade Murphy or Dunealvy after giving them hefty contracts, and Indiana has both of them now. Murphy could be a nice inside-out tandem with JO, but that's not enough. They have the pieces to make deals; JO and Foster will command good packages from contenders, and they're not worth much here anymore. Granger is very solid, but will never be a star. They've slowly deteriorated... I think their only choice is to pull teh plug. It's hard to do. But this team isn't going anywhere soon.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Starters: Walter Hermann, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Ray Felton, Jason Richardson
Bench: Matt Carroll, Primoz Breznec, Ryan Hollins, Jeff McInnis, Jared Dudley
Outlook: After trading away their pick for Richardson and re-signing Wallace, a lot of people starting talking playoffs for the newest team. I wasn't so sure, but they certainly have made themselves better... but now they're struggling to find ways to keep everyone healthy. Sean May and Adam Morrsion are gone, and May was the only other true post threat besides Okafor. They were a borderline playoff team for me before that, and now, I think they're out.
It's ironic that they now have a glut of wings but no big men, as the first years of their existence, it was the opposite. They never had much perimeter scoring or depth. Richardson, honestly, is the first good shooting guard they've ever had. This lineup is decent, but they need some rebounding.
Still, this team is pregressing nicely and one Michael Jordan seems to have them in the right direction. With another big man in the draft (Roy Hibbert?) and continued development from Felton, and a full season of Hermann getting time, I think they'll be a threat next year. Not now, unless they're lucky.
NEW YORK KNICKS
Starters: Zach Randolph, Jared Jeffries, Eddy Curry, Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford
Bench: David Lee, Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson, Renaldo Balkman
Outlook: Ah, my favorite punchline, the Knicks. Quite a summer for them, eh? Isiah adds to his long list of embarassments, Marbury appears to be crazy, and yet they manage to trade Stevie Franchise for something and get some more young kids in. They have a decent team on paper, but will they mesh on court? I'm skeptical.
This is not a bad lineup in terms of talent. Curry and Randolph are good low post scorers, Balkman, Lee, and Jeffries can add defense and hustle, and Crawford and Q Rich can shoot it. But will it all fit? I don't know if Curry and Randolph can co-exist. I don't know how to find time for everyone. Lee is a great rebounder but will he play much? How do you balance Crawford and all the wings? And does any of it matter when Marbury is erratic?
They're too talented to lose big this year, but I don't see a playoff run unless a lot of teams above them trip or they all have miraculous changes in attitude. I'm not counting on that.
ATLANTA HAWKS
Starters: Al Horford, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Acie Law, Joe Johnson
Bench: Zaza Pachulia, Shelden Williams, Josh Childress, Speedy Claxton
Outlook: The best for the Hawks in years. Even though they kept making weird draft picsk, eventually, they figured it out and put together a nice team. I think they can challenge for a playoff spot this year, and for the future.
Horford is a big help down low. He has the skills to be a good four immediately. Marvin Williams is still developing, but he made strides last year and has the chance to play. Joe Johnson may not be a franchise guy, but he is an easy all-star pick. Childress, Shelden, and Claxton were struggling as starters but should make good subs.
Some questions: is Acie Law ready? He's got more offense than any other point, and he's not a teenager, so he should be able to contribute. Is Josh Smith ready for a way out? He's athletic as hell, but has clashed with coaches... but he is from here, and a fan favorite.
I like this team. I think they can go small and win some games with a fast lineup. The progress of the rookies and Smith's attitude will determine if they finally have a future.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Starters: Charlie Villanueva, Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Mo Williams, Michael Redd
Bench: Yi Jianlin, Desmond Mason, Charlie Bell, Dan Gadzuric
Outlook: After all the turmoil last season and during the draft, Milwuakee should be back in the running. Injuries killed them last year, but they still have a lot to worry about. Besides the testy situation with Yi, they have to find some defense and passing somewhere. This team can score in bunches, especially from outside, but they have to get some stops and boards to win.
Last year, it seemed like the Bucks spent a lot of time having Williams, Redd, and Bell chuck up shots while no one rebounded or defended. It didn't work. Williams surprised a lot of people by putting up decent scoring numbers after T.J. Ford left, but he needs to be more of a passer this year. He has scorers everywhere, and he needs to find them. Bogut must prove that he can give them something down low. Villanueva has to show the fire from his rookei year. Simmons and Mason just have to play D and get their shots when they can.
I'm still a little puzzled about the drafting of Yi. Along with the initial balking his camp pulled, he seems too much like their current big guys to help. He's more of a shooter and offensive force with not much d or rebounding. Villanueva, Bogut, and Gadzuric already did that. I wondered why they didn't go with Joakim Noah or Julian Wright, but they like his skills. They did bring in Michael Ruffin and Jake Voshkuhl for some muscle off the bench, but will they play much with Yi guaranteed time?
This team made the playoffs with a less talented but similar crew two years ago, and they can get close again if they play together. Redd is still a lights out shooter and they have the ability to score with anyone, but will they? I think they're the closest of this group but will fall just short of the postseason.
Monday, October 22, 2007
NBA preview 2007, part one
So it's come to this...
as I said last week, it doesn't really feel like the season is starting because it feels like it never ended. This summer has been pretty busy and I feel so rushed into making predictions. I'm still not sure about anything. Several things that needed to be resolved (Kobe, Jermaine, Varejao & Pavlovic) still aren't. I suppose Marion and Kirkilenko are sticking for now. I don't know how Dallas, New York, Houston, Miami, and some others will clean up their huge rosters, but they have to, don't they? Good people may be out of a job.... perhaps we don't need to cut two teams. All my preparations are worthless (or not, since it's about filling that hole in your starting lineup).
Speaking of holes, there are a lot this year and I have one going on in my first ever roto league. Yes, I've never actually done fantasy before, mainly because I like to play with people I know and I can't put together 3 people who care about hoops, even for free. So I joined a public league and will hope that it means something to beat up on teenagers and fellow unemployeds I don't know. At least they care about basketball. We are a dying breed.
I feel good about four of the five spots on my starting lineup. The bench has flexibility and potential, which is good. Production must come.
Starters: Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Tim Duncan, Jermaine O'Neal, Richard Jefferson (or Andrea Bargnani)
Bench: Bargnani, Andre Miller, Walter Hermann, Jason Maxiell, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Mike Conley, Bobby Simmons, Kendrick Perkins
See, if this was a real team, I could bring Bargnani, Miller, and Hermann off the bench (with Perkins and Maxiell occasionally for muscle) and pwn. For fantasy, I have to hope Wade stays healthy and that all these young guys deliver. But now I have to fill 10 spots? That's no good.
I won't bore anyone with details, but I will link somewhere.
....... onto the real preview....
I'm breaking this up from its usual giant entry to several entries. I was going to do 30 posts for each team, but I want to start out generally, for now, and get more specific as the season starts.
I just found this link for the over/under predictions of wins from Vegas.... I'll post them here....
Dallas Mavericks 57.5
Phoenix Suns 56.5
San Antonio Spurs 56.5
Detroit Pistons 50.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 49.5
Chicago Bulls 48.5
Houston Rockets 48.5
Miami Heat 48.5
Utah Jazz 47.5
Denver Nuggets 46.5
Boston Celtics 45.5
New Jersey Nets 44.5
Toronto Raptors 43.5
Golden State Warriors 42.5
Los Angeles Lakers 42.5
Orlando Magic 41.5
New Orleans Hornets 40.5
Washington Wizards 40.5
Indiana Pacers 37.5
Sacramento Kings 36.5
Charlotte Bobcats 35.5
Milwaukee Bucks 35.5
New York Knicks 35.5
Los Angeles Clippers 34.5
Philadelphia 76ers 34.5
Atlanta Hawks 29.5
Memphis Grizzlies 28.5
Portland Trail Blazers 28.5
Seattle SuperSonics 28.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 27.5
Interesting. I always get nervous when I look at the Vegas odds and wonder what they're thinking.... usually, they know something I don't. That's why they're rich motherf**kers.
I think the Grizzlies are way too low (a lot of people have commented on this), and I would be scared to mess with the totals for Indiana, Clippers, Lakers, and Sacramento - realistically, with their talent, they all seem to be in the right place, but I can see all of them imploding and/or trading everyone away at some point. I think the Celts, Rockets, and Bulls are all slightly low, but they factored in the usual injury gamut. Hmmmm.
This one is from The Greek - it makes a little more sense in places...
Dallas 56.5
Phoenix 56
San Antonio 56
Houston 54
Denver 50
Detroit 50
Chicago 48.5
Boston 48
Utah 48
Cleveland 47.5
Orlando 46
Miami 44.5
New Jersey 43.5
Toronto 42.5
Golden State 42
Lakers 42
Washington 40
New Orleans 38.5
Atlanta 38
Milwaukee 36
New York 36
Sacramento 35.5
Charlotte 34.5
Memphis 34
Clippers 32.5
Indiana 32
Philadelphia 32
Portland 31.5
Seattle 28.5
Minnesota 20
What do they hate about Memphis that I don't see?
Anyway, here are my predictions of win totals. The way I see it, a lot of teams are grouped together, which I will differentiate in specifics later. But for now, the basics:
as of 10/22/ 07 - J LEO
WESTERN CONFERENCE (approx. wins)
1. Dallas 62
2. Phoenix 59
3. San Antonio 57
4. Houston 54
5. Utah 50
6. Denver 48
7. Golden State 44
8. Memphis 42
9. New Orleans 38
10. Lakers 34 (as of now)
11. Sacramento 32
12. Seattle 31
13. Portland 27
14. Clippers 22
15. Minnesota 20
EASTERN CONFRENCE
1. Chicago 54
2. Boston 52
3. Cleveland 51
4. Detroit 50
5. Miami 46
6. Toronto 45
7. Washington 44
8. New Jersey 44
9. Orlando 42
10. Milwaukee 38
11. Atlanta 36
12. New York 35
13. Charlotte 32
14. Indiana 30
15. Philadelphia 26
I feel good about that. It's been dated. I will date any revisions based on trades, injuries, and other developments.
But what about the playoffs? That will have to come later. I'm still struggling.... I think it will come down to matchups. Any one of those five teams in the East could make it to the finals, pending on who plays who, who's hot, who's hurt, and such. It sucks that three of the best teams play in the same division, which means that one or two of them are getting screwed in playoff time (just like last year when Cleveland had it easy and Chicago rough).
In the West, the golden triangle of Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio should still hold the conference (and league) winner. But who beats who head-to-head? I really liked Phoenix to come back hard after that raucous Spurs series, but their frugality is making me a little nervous. Dallas followed up a great season with a terrible playoffs, but was that just ill fortune? They are one of the few teams that has been able to hang with the Spurs. People are backing off the Spurs because they've never repeated, and they're older and less motivated, but they could still be the best team and they won't lose much.
And then there's the next tier of teams - Houston, Denver, and Utah. Some think Houston could go all the way to the top. Denver and Utah are feisty and could pull some upsets. Or, with injuries, they could all falter.
I won't get into the postseason until last, with more research. But for now, that's how I lay down the regular season.
AWARDS
MVP - Tim Duncan narrowly over LeBron James (also in the mix: Garnett, Nash, Nowitzki, maybe Kobe)
I think that there will be a host of people like Nash, Dirk, and LeBron, who do great work, but don't inspire voters. They've ignored Duncan the past few years and may reconsider if no one really steps up in a big way.
Dark horses: Voters love it if guys take new teams far, so KG (and Kobe if he moves and goes far) has a chance to impress. He has to split votes with Pierce though, which hurts him, and other faves like McGrady and Yao, plus all on Chicago and Detroit with their balanced attacks. I've heard Gilbert and Baron tossed out there if their teams impress, but that's a longshot. Dwyane Wade, if he stays healthy and gets Miami back near the top, is a great guy to watch here.
I would even go for Bosh if Toronto continues to prove me wrong, and Dwight if Orlando is in the race. I need better candidates. LeBron is the tentative favorite, and he can do it, but he has to keep Cleveland ahead of a better conference. I'll say Duncan for a lack of imagination.
ROY - Kevin Durant (is it even close?)
Durant seems to be the only rook anyone can think of, and why not? He's on a bad but not terrible team, he's ready to play, and he'll get tons of shots. I think he's the only rookie with a good chance to average more than 16 points. Some people are trying to come up with other candidates, but I see this as a Gasol/Paul-esque race without any major competition.
Some guys who could step up? Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, Al Thornton, Marco Bellinelli, Jason Smith, Mike Conley, Acie Law, Joakim Noah, Glen Davis
COACH - Marc Iavaroni, Memphis
It's usually a guy who takes a team supposed to be awful, and makes the playoffs, like Sam Mitchell last year. I guess the only surprise, according to Vegas, would be Memphis. I can see the head coaches of all of these teams getting it if they improve on wins: Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Sacramento. If Chicago wins more than 55 games and looks good, I think Scott Skiles would get a lot of support. But most likely, it's someone you aren't really thinkiing of right now.
DEF - Shawn Marion
Lost out by a little to Marcus Camby last year. Both of these guys are standout defenders on teams that run and gun, but if Camby was still noticed, why not Mr. Matrix? He deserves some more cred.
Other guys who could step up: Josh Smith, Dwight Howard, Samuel Dalembert (I like him and Reggie Evans to booster the hometown's D), KG (could be revitalized in the East)
6th man - Andres Noicioni
He's always been the prototypical sixth man, but he got lost the past few years because he was basically a starter for them. Now that they have some real forwards, he'll be strictly a sixth man, and they'll be better off. Leandro Barbosa is still going to be great, but is he still going to be recognized as a sixth man when he gets more minutes than several of Phoenix's starters?
Other guys who could step up: Anderson Varejao (if he decides to come back)
James Posey (only reliable guy on Boston bench?)
David Lee (if he doesn't start)
Jorge Garbajosa (same)
Jerry Stackhouse
Devin Harris or Jason Terry (if one sits)
Jameer Nelson or Carlos Arroyo (whomever sits)
Most Improved - LaMarcus Alrdidge
This is an easy choice. Aldridge came on strong when he finally got minutes, and will get plenty of time and shots this year with Zach Randolph gone (and Oden not ready). His numbers should go way up.
Some other guys came on late last year and could continue that, like Walter Hermann and Daniel Gibson. I also like Ronnie Brewer, Ty Thomas, Rajon Rondo, Andray Blatche, Gerald Green, Kendrick Perkins, Andrea Bargnani, Randy Foye, Mouhamed Sene, and even Andrew Bynum as possible sleepers.
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: STARTERS: Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady
WEST: BENCH: Carlos Boozer, Steve Nash, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Baron Davis, Pau Gasol, Shawn Marion
hon. mention / injury reserve: Amare Stoudemire, Josh Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul
EAST: STARTERS: Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade
EAST:BENCH: Chris Bosh, Chauncey Billups, Loul Deng, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, Jason Kidd
hon. mention / injury reserve: Vince Carter, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Ben Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Jermaine O'Neal (?)
ALL NBA
FIRST: Duncan, LeBron, Yao, Nash, Kobe
SECOND: Garnett, Nowitzki, Howard, Wade, McGrady
THIRD: Bosh, Carmelo, Boozer, Arenas, Billups
ALL ROOKIE
FIRST: Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Joakim Noah
SECOND: Acie Law, Jason Smith, Al Thornton, Corey Brewer, Marco Bellinelli
WATCH FOR (NOT READY?): Yi Jianlin, Thaddeous Young, Spencer Hawes, Brandan Wright, Morris Almond
WATCH FOR (NEED TIME): Mike Conley, Juan Carlos Navarro, Kyrrylo Fesenko, Julian Wright, Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Jared Dudley
ALL DEFENSE
FIRST: Shawn Marion, Josh Smith, Marcus Camby, Kevin Garnett, Bruce Bowen
SECOND: Tim Duncan, Rasheed Wallace, Dwight Howard, Kirk Hinrich, Trevor Ariza
POSS: Sam Dalembert, Ty Thomas, Ben Wallace, Tyson Chandler, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Des Mason, Jeff Foster, Andre Iguodala, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Devin Brown
and you knew it.....
THE ALL-UGLY TEAM
Captain: Sam Cassell ........... (honorary: Tyrone Hill)
Promising Rookie: Oleksiy Pecherov (has been compared to Stewie Griffin)
Starters: Cassell, Reggie Evans, Mehmet Okur, Charlie "The Hills Have Eyes" Villanueva, Hedo Turkoglu
Bench: Ben Wallace, Chris Kamen, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry, Darrell Armstrong, Bo Outlaw, Walter Hermann (not really ugly but bizarre looking)
Yup. More specific team previews coming up.
as I said last week, it doesn't really feel like the season is starting because it feels like it never ended. This summer has been pretty busy and I feel so rushed into making predictions. I'm still not sure about anything. Several things that needed to be resolved (Kobe, Jermaine, Varejao & Pavlovic) still aren't. I suppose Marion and Kirkilenko are sticking for now. I don't know how Dallas, New York, Houston, Miami, and some others will clean up their huge rosters, but they have to, don't they? Good people may be out of a job.... perhaps we don't need to cut two teams. All my preparations are worthless (or not, since it's about filling that hole in your starting lineup).
Speaking of holes, there are a lot this year and I have one going on in my first ever roto league. Yes, I've never actually done fantasy before, mainly because I like to play with people I know and I can't put together 3 people who care about hoops, even for free. So I joined a public league and will hope that it means something to beat up on teenagers and fellow unemployeds I don't know. At least they care about basketball. We are a dying breed.
I feel good about four of the five spots on my starting lineup. The bench has flexibility and potential, which is good. Production must come.
Starters: Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Tim Duncan, Jermaine O'Neal, Richard Jefferson (or Andrea Bargnani)
Bench: Bargnani, Andre Miller, Walter Hermann, Jason Maxiell, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Mike Conley, Bobby Simmons, Kendrick Perkins
See, if this was a real team, I could bring Bargnani, Miller, and Hermann off the bench (with Perkins and Maxiell occasionally for muscle) and pwn. For fantasy, I have to hope Wade stays healthy and that all these young guys deliver. But now I have to fill 10 spots? That's no good.
I won't bore anyone with details, but I will link somewhere.
....... onto the real preview....
I'm breaking this up from its usual giant entry to several entries. I was going to do 30 posts for each team, but I want to start out generally, for now, and get more specific as the season starts.
I just found this link for the over/under predictions of wins from Vegas.... I'll post them here....
Dallas Mavericks 57.5
Phoenix Suns 56.5
San Antonio Spurs 56.5
Detroit Pistons 50.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 49.5
Chicago Bulls 48.5
Houston Rockets 48.5
Miami Heat 48.5
Utah Jazz 47.5
Denver Nuggets 46.5
Boston Celtics 45.5
New Jersey Nets 44.5
Toronto Raptors 43.5
Golden State Warriors 42.5
Los Angeles Lakers 42.5
Orlando Magic 41.5
New Orleans Hornets 40.5
Washington Wizards 40.5
Indiana Pacers 37.5
Sacramento Kings 36.5
Charlotte Bobcats 35.5
Milwaukee Bucks 35.5
New York Knicks 35.5
Los Angeles Clippers 34.5
Philadelphia 76ers 34.5
Atlanta Hawks 29.5
Memphis Grizzlies 28.5
Portland Trail Blazers 28.5
Seattle SuperSonics 28.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 27.5
Interesting. I always get nervous when I look at the Vegas odds and wonder what they're thinking.... usually, they know something I don't. That's why they're rich motherf**kers.
I think the Grizzlies are way too low (a lot of people have commented on this), and I would be scared to mess with the totals for Indiana, Clippers, Lakers, and Sacramento - realistically, with their talent, they all seem to be in the right place, but I can see all of them imploding and/or trading everyone away at some point. I think the Celts, Rockets, and Bulls are all slightly low, but they factored in the usual injury gamut. Hmmmm.
This one is from The Greek - it makes a little more sense in places...
Dallas 56.5
Phoenix 56
San Antonio 56
Houston 54
Denver 50
Detroit 50
Chicago 48.5
Boston 48
Utah 48
Cleveland 47.5
Orlando 46
Miami 44.5
New Jersey 43.5
Toronto 42.5
Golden State 42
Lakers 42
Washington 40
New Orleans 38.5
Atlanta 38
Milwaukee 36
New York 36
Sacramento 35.5
Charlotte 34.5
Memphis 34
Clippers 32.5
Indiana 32
Philadelphia 32
Portland 31.5
Seattle 28.5
Minnesota 20
What do they hate about Memphis that I don't see?
Anyway, here are my predictions of win totals. The way I see it, a lot of teams are grouped together, which I will differentiate in specifics later. But for now, the basics:
as of 10/22/ 07 - J LEO
WESTERN CONFERENCE (approx. wins)
1. Dallas 62
2. Phoenix 59
3. San Antonio 57
4. Houston 54
5. Utah 50
6. Denver 48
7. Golden State 44
8. Memphis 42
9. New Orleans 38
10. Lakers 34 (as of now)
11. Sacramento 32
12. Seattle 31
13. Portland 27
14. Clippers 22
15. Minnesota 20
EASTERN CONFRENCE
1. Chicago 54
2. Boston 52
3. Cleveland 51
4. Detroit 50
5. Miami 46
6. Toronto 45
7. Washington 44
8. New Jersey 44
9. Orlando 42
10. Milwaukee 38
11. Atlanta 36
12. New York 35
13. Charlotte 32
14. Indiana 30
15. Philadelphia 26
I feel good about that. It's been dated. I will date any revisions based on trades, injuries, and other developments.
But what about the playoffs? That will have to come later. I'm still struggling.... I think it will come down to matchups. Any one of those five teams in the East could make it to the finals, pending on who plays who, who's hot, who's hurt, and such. It sucks that three of the best teams play in the same division, which means that one or two of them are getting screwed in playoff time (just like last year when Cleveland had it easy and Chicago rough).
In the West, the golden triangle of Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio should still hold the conference (and league) winner. But who beats who head-to-head? I really liked Phoenix to come back hard after that raucous Spurs series, but their frugality is making me a little nervous. Dallas followed up a great season with a terrible playoffs, but was that just ill fortune? They are one of the few teams that has been able to hang with the Spurs. People are backing off the Spurs because they've never repeated, and they're older and less motivated, but they could still be the best team and they won't lose much.
And then there's the next tier of teams - Houston, Denver, and Utah. Some think Houston could go all the way to the top. Denver and Utah are feisty and could pull some upsets. Or, with injuries, they could all falter.
I won't get into the postseason until last, with more research. But for now, that's how I lay down the regular season.
AWARDS
MVP - Tim Duncan narrowly over LeBron James (also in the mix: Garnett, Nash, Nowitzki, maybe Kobe)
I think that there will be a host of people like Nash, Dirk, and LeBron, who do great work, but don't inspire voters. They've ignored Duncan the past few years and may reconsider if no one really steps up in a big way.
Dark horses: Voters love it if guys take new teams far, so KG (and Kobe if he moves and goes far) has a chance to impress. He has to split votes with Pierce though, which hurts him, and other faves like McGrady and Yao, plus all on Chicago and Detroit with their balanced attacks. I've heard Gilbert and Baron tossed out there if their teams impress, but that's a longshot. Dwyane Wade, if he stays healthy and gets Miami back near the top, is a great guy to watch here.
I would even go for Bosh if Toronto continues to prove me wrong, and Dwight if Orlando is in the race. I need better candidates. LeBron is the tentative favorite, and he can do it, but he has to keep Cleveland ahead of a better conference. I'll say Duncan for a lack of imagination.
ROY - Kevin Durant (is it even close?)
Durant seems to be the only rook anyone can think of, and why not? He's on a bad but not terrible team, he's ready to play, and he'll get tons of shots. I think he's the only rookie with a good chance to average more than 16 points. Some people are trying to come up with other candidates, but I see this as a Gasol/Paul-esque race without any major competition.
Some guys who could step up? Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, Al Thornton, Marco Bellinelli, Jason Smith, Mike Conley, Acie Law, Joakim Noah, Glen Davis
COACH - Marc Iavaroni, Memphis
It's usually a guy who takes a team supposed to be awful, and makes the playoffs, like Sam Mitchell last year. I guess the only surprise, according to Vegas, would be Memphis. I can see the head coaches of all of these teams getting it if they improve on wins: Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Sacramento. If Chicago wins more than 55 games and looks good, I think Scott Skiles would get a lot of support. But most likely, it's someone you aren't really thinkiing of right now.
DEF - Shawn Marion
Lost out by a little to Marcus Camby last year. Both of these guys are standout defenders on teams that run and gun, but if Camby was still noticed, why not Mr. Matrix? He deserves some more cred.
Other guys who could step up: Josh Smith, Dwight Howard, Samuel Dalembert (I like him and Reggie Evans to booster the hometown's D), KG (could be revitalized in the East)
6th man - Andres Noicioni
He's always been the prototypical sixth man, but he got lost the past few years because he was basically a starter for them. Now that they have some real forwards, he'll be strictly a sixth man, and they'll be better off. Leandro Barbosa is still going to be great, but is he still going to be recognized as a sixth man when he gets more minutes than several of Phoenix's starters?
Other guys who could step up: Anderson Varejao (if he decides to come back)
James Posey (only reliable guy on Boston bench?)
David Lee (if he doesn't start)
Jorge Garbajosa (same)
Jerry Stackhouse
Devin Harris or Jason Terry (if one sits)
Jameer Nelson or Carlos Arroyo (whomever sits)
Most Improved - LaMarcus Alrdidge
This is an easy choice. Aldridge came on strong when he finally got minutes, and will get plenty of time and shots this year with Zach Randolph gone (and Oden not ready). His numbers should go way up.
Some other guys came on late last year and could continue that, like Walter Hermann and Daniel Gibson. I also like Ronnie Brewer, Ty Thomas, Rajon Rondo, Andray Blatche, Gerald Green, Kendrick Perkins, Andrea Bargnani, Randy Foye, Mouhamed Sene, and even Andrew Bynum as possible sleepers.
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: STARTERS: Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady
WEST: BENCH: Carlos Boozer, Steve Nash, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Baron Davis, Pau Gasol, Shawn Marion
hon. mention / injury reserve: Amare Stoudemire, Josh Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul
EAST: STARTERS: Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade
EAST:BENCH: Chris Bosh, Chauncey Billups, Loul Deng, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, Jason Kidd
hon. mention / injury reserve: Vince Carter, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Ben Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Jermaine O'Neal (?)
ALL NBA
FIRST: Duncan, LeBron, Yao, Nash, Kobe
SECOND: Garnett, Nowitzki, Howard, Wade, McGrady
THIRD: Bosh, Carmelo, Boozer, Arenas, Billups
ALL ROOKIE
FIRST: Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Joakim Noah
SECOND: Acie Law, Jason Smith, Al Thornton, Corey Brewer, Marco Bellinelli
WATCH FOR (NOT READY?): Yi Jianlin, Thaddeous Young, Spencer Hawes, Brandan Wright, Morris Almond
WATCH FOR (NEED TIME): Mike Conley, Juan Carlos Navarro, Kyrrylo Fesenko, Julian Wright, Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Jared Dudley
ALL DEFENSE
FIRST: Shawn Marion, Josh Smith, Marcus Camby, Kevin Garnett, Bruce Bowen
SECOND: Tim Duncan, Rasheed Wallace, Dwight Howard, Kirk Hinrich, Trevor Ariza
POSS: Sam Dalembert, Ty Thomas, Ben Wallace, Tyson Chandler, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Des Mason, Jeff Foster, Andre Iguodala, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Devin Brown
and you knew it.....
THE ALL-UGLY TEAM
Captain: Sam Cassell ........... (honorary: Tyrone Hill)
Promising Rookie: Oleksiy Pecherov (has been compared to Stewie Griffin)
Starters: Cassell, Reggie Evans, Mehmet Okur, Charlie "The Hills Have Eyes" Villanueva, Hedo Turkoglu
Bench: Ben Wallace, Chris Kamen, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry, Darrell Armstrong, Bo Outlaw, Walter Hermann (not really ugly but bizarre looking)
Yup. More specific team previews coming up.
Friday, October 19, 2007
NBA previewwwwwwwww?
It's almost time for the season to start. It seems like the postseason never really ended, with all the big news and lackluster finals and all... most fans were looking forward to the draft and the trade season and free agency and such, and now, suddenly, the real season is about to begin. Are you ready? I'm not.
I was going to start my annual preview soon, something I've taken pride in since I was 12. But this year, I don't feel like it's really the end. I kept waiting for the Lakers to do something, anything, and then the Marion - Kirilenko news came out, and I held off on any predictions. I was sure another big deal was upcoming. Then nothing happened. Everyone arrived at camp, somewhat begrudgingly but ready to play. I decided to proceed with caution as I had planned.
Then, last week, the Laker soap opera boiled up again. Kobe showed up to camp, but he and Dr. Buss publicly aired grievances, and now everyone is scrambling to throw out deal scenarios again. I had to look back over all the Kobe trades I suggested on here months ago. I don't know if any of them will work, but maybe..... and then how do I write a preview if major moves are pending? The Lakers could be the same low-level playoff team as last year, or they could be a solid contender, or they could be completely decimated at the end of the season, and I have no idea which will happen.
Some things I DO know:
1. Something is probably going to happen. It used to be thought that superstar trades were impossible, for salary cap and loyalty reasons, but look at the past few years - Shaq, Garnett, Iverson, even Vince, were all moved eventually. The Mavs will look at deals even if they have to lose the reigning MVP. It's not impossible for Kobe to leave.
2. Indiana isn't going anywhere. I know talks between the Lakers and them stalled, and Buss is in a tough spot, but I have to think they can come up with something. The Pacers need a complete overhaul. Why aren't they making something happen?
3. The Lakers have a tough choice of when to do things. If they do nothing now, they could try to win Kobe back with a godo start to the season. But if it goes bad, he'll really demand a trade and they'll be stuck like the Sixers were last year. And they'll lose value on him. But then they also might want to wait so other trades (especially those involving players who just signed) could materialize.
So what do I do? I suppose I will begin this as planned, and be ready to edit if anything goes down. Thank you, internet technology, for allowing me to change what I post quickly and easily.
Where do I rank Indiana though? I gues it doesn't matter if they act or not, or when - they're going to suck this year. How much is unknown.
Anyway, here are some ideas on Kobe's potential suitors, as I rank them.
1. BULLS
This is still the most likely, because they have depth and appealing prospects, they're in the East, they need a leader, and Kobe likes them. The real question is what the Lakers can get out of this. The Bulls will gladly give up Ben Gordon, and I'm thinking they can part with Ty Thomas, but do they dare include Deng or Hinrich? I say the Lakers would do this now with Gordon, Thomas, Selfosha, future draft picks, and cap filler... and the Bulls would be able to keep most of their core intact. They also wouldn't have to worry about investing too much in extensions, since Gordon and Thomas would be out and only Deng left to pay.
It makes the most sense, if they can work on it. I know the Bulls would like to have their young core develop together, but I'd make that deal in a second as long as I kept Deng.
2. NETS
They haven't been mentioned much, but Kobe enjoyed playing with Kidd this year and they will be in New York soon. They have the trading chips: a guy who can score and sell seats in Vince, and a potential star big man in Kristic. So that looks good. But then the Nets would be the same perimeter based team as they have been, with Kobe inserted. And the cap space doesn't work out yet (Kristic is still cheap, he needs to have an extension), considering that the Lakers would probably throw in a forward to help this out.
And if the Lakers settle for Carter and Jefferson and spare pieces (no Kidd or Kristic), well, Kupchak should just hang himself from the rafters. There's too much at stake here - Kristic makes or breaks this deal for both sides, and it can't really be balanced.... for now.
3. SUNS
Kobe mentioned them and they have a nice package, even without Nash or Stoudemire. If they take Marion and Barbosa, plus young guys and draft picks (Phoenix does have Atlanta's), that's not a bad deal. It gives the Lakers a lot of young talent, even if they slip. Remember when Marion said he'd like to be the high scorer on a medicore team over his current situation? Here's his chance.
This is likely not to happen, though, for two simple reasons: the Suns are rivals, and they're cheap. I doubt they'd spend the cash to keep Kobe and improve based on their recent moves. A Kobe/Cook swap for Marion/Barbosa works, but the Suns have to dip into their trade exception for it. Would they do that? Will Buss send Kobe to a team that plays the Lakers often? I doubt it. Too bad, because this would put the Suns over the top and give Marion some peace. Maybe Steve Kerr can beg his boss on behalf of the fact that Kobe is, um, WORTH IT!
(and worth a title?)
4. MAVERICKS
They keep being mentioned as a major player, even though they are in the same conference. Kobe did list them and Buss apparently can withstand Mark Cuban, which is a rarity amongst owners.
But is this really a good fit? Why would the Lakers take all the supporting players on the Mavs, which is the first option, or the Mavs make themselves into the new Lakers, which is the second option? If the Mavs do give up Dirk, then Kobe gets to play with a supporting cast that helps him but doesn't have any stars like he wants. They'll have to involve more people to make it work, because the Mavs have no fours and the Lakers lots. So basically then, Kobe will be in the same situation as the past few years. If the Mavs don't give up Dirk, the Lakers will come away without any real stars (Josh Howard is good, but he's an overachiever who benefits greatly playing alongside Nowitzki) and a big hole on their roster... and the Mavs will be a two man team with the same problems Boston faces, only much worse. So I don't think this is going to happen in any way. The pieces just don't fit.
But then, Cuban has an itchy trigger finger...
5. KNICKS
As much as we all think the league wants this to happen, there's no way the pieces fit. The Knicks are better off managing the cap (whoops, Isiah) and acquiring space (yoinks) and positioning themselves for a big free agent down the road, like Kobe and LeBron in a few years. They haven't done that, instead trading for people they can't get rid of later. Nicely done.
The only way for them to even dream of Kobe is for the Lakers to accept a collection of overpaid guys who aren't stars. Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph may put up good numbers offensively, but they're nowhere near the franchise level the Lakers are looking for. The Knicks could throw a wave of young talent to go with them, but none of these guys are stars in any sense. The Lakers could go for the cap relief, knowing that they can sign free agents in a few years, but why not get someone actually good? New York just doesn't have enough... but I can't count them out, for obvious reasons.
6. HAWKS
Yeah, I know, Kobe would never approve of this. But someone threw out a swap of Joe Johnson and Al Horford for Kobe and one of the forwards. You know what? That's not a bad deal for either side. The Lakers get two young starters who are true quality (that's their best pickup outside of the Bulls), and the Hawks get a true star and someone the fans could actually care about for once. Too bad their ownership group would probably turn it down after fighting again.
7. ROCKETS
Kobe straight up for T Mac? With a couple of the Houston guards thrown in? It would work, I suppose, but would it help either team that much? Hmm... this is intriguing, even if I don't believe it....
8. CELTICS
Rumors that the Celtics would trade Pierce back to his native LA have been floating around for a while, epecially when he was unhappy. He's the rare player who could almost match Kobe's scoring and popularity..... but that would be pretty mean for Boston to finally give him help and then send him packing. After all, ownership loves him. It's why they mortgaged their future to get him other stars instead of trading him for a youth movement. So as much as it makes sense to LA people, it's not gonna happen.
9. SPURS
Kobe for Parker and Ginobli? It would simplify things, but the Lakers want a big man more than a point guard who shoots. Plus San Antonio likes their system how it is.
10. SIXERS
Iggy and T. Young won't get it done because then Kobe has no supporting cast again. He'd be replicating Iverson in the early years.... although, that might be enough to get somewhere in the East.
So as far as I see it, the Bulls are the most likely candidate by far. If Jersey cooks up something or the Suns change their minds, they might work, but the Bulls have the most to offer and the resources to survive. Will this happen anytime soon? I doubt it, but I can't say. I'll start my preview soon with eraser in hand.
I was going to start my annual preview soon, something I've taken pride in since I was 12. But this year, I don't feel like it's really the end. I kept waiting for the Lakers to do something, anything, and then the Marion - Kirilenko news came out, and I held off on any predictions. I was sure another big deal was upcoming. Then nothing happened. Everyone arrived at camp, somewhat begrudgingly but ready to play. I decided to proceed with caution as I had planned.
Then, last week, the Laker soap opera boiled up again. Kobe showed up to camp, but he and Dr. Buss publicly aired grievances, and now everyone is scrambling to throw out deal scenarios again. I had to look back over all the Kobe trades I suggested on here months ago. I don't know if any of them will work, but maybe..... and then how do I write a preview if major moves are pending? The Lakers could be the same low-level playoff team as last year, or they could be a solid contender, or they could be completely decimated at the end of the season, and I have no idea which will happen.
Some things I DO know:
1. Something is probably going to happen. It used to be thought that superstar trades were impossible, for salary cap and loyalty reasons, but look at the past few years - Shaq, Garnett, Iverson, even Vince, were all moved eventually. The Mavs will look at deals even if they have to lose the reigning MVP. It's not impossible for Kobe to leave.
2. Indiana isn't going anywhere. I know talks between the Lakers and them stalled, and Buss is in a tough spot, but I have to think they can come up with something. The Pacers need a complete overhaul. Why aren't they making something happen?
3. The Lakers have a tough choice of when to do things. If they do nothing now, they could try to win Kobe back with a godo start to the season. But if it goes bad, he'll really demand a trade and they'll be stuck like the Sixers were last year. And they'll lose value on him. But then they also might want to wait so other trades (especially those involving players who just signed) could materialize.
So what do I do? I suppose I will begin this as planned, and be ready to edit if anything goes down. Thank you, internet technology, for allowing me to change what I post quickly and easily.
Where do I rank Indiana though? I gues it doesn't matter if they act or not, or when - they're going to suck this year. How much is unknown.
Anyway, here are some ideas on Kobe's potential suitors, as I rank them.
1. BULLS
This is still the most likely, because they have depth and appealing prospects, they're in the East, they need a leader, and Kobe likes them. The real question is what the Lakers can get out of this. The Bulls will gladly give up Ben Gordon, and I'm thinking they can part with Ty Thomas, but do they dare include Deng or Hinrich? I say the Lakers would do this now with Gordon, Thomas, Selfosha, future draft picks, and cap filler... and the Bulls would be able to keep most of their core intact. They also wouldn't have to worry about investing too much in extensions, since Gordon and Thomas would be out and only Deng left to pay.
It makes the most sense, if they can work on it. I know the Bulls would like to have their young core develop together, but I'd make that deal in a second as long as I kept Deng.
2. NETS
They haven't been mentioned much, but Kobe enjoyed playing with Kidd this year and they will be in New York soon. They have the trading chips: a guy who can score and sell seats in Vince, and a potential star big man in Kristic. So that looks good. But then the Nets would be the same perimeter based team as they have been, with Kobe inserted. And the cap space doesn't work out yet (Kristic is still cheap, he needs to have an extension), considering that the Lakers would probably throw in a forward to help this out.
And if the Lakers settle for Carter and Jefferson and spare pieces (no Kidd or Kristic), well, Kupchak should just hang himself from the rafters. There's too much at stake here - Kristic makes or breaks this deal for both sides, and it can't really be balanced.... for now.
3. SUNS
Kobe mentioned them and they have a nice package, even without Nash or Stoudemire. If they take Marion and Barbosa, plus young guys and draft picks (Phoenix does have Atlanta's), that's not a bad deal. It gives the Lakers a lot of young talent, even if they slip. Remember when Marion said he'd like to be the high scorer on a medicore team over his current situation? Here's his chance.
This is likely not to happen, though, for two simple reasons: the Suns are rivals, and they're cheap. I doubt they'd spend the cash to keep Kobe and improve based on their recent moves. A Kobe/Cook swap for Marion/Barbosa works, but the Suns have to dip into their trade exception for it. Would they do that? Will Buss send Kobe to a team that plays the Lakers often? I doubt it. Too bad, because this would put the Suns over the top and give Marion some peace. Maybe Steve Kerr can beg his boss on behalf of the fact that Kobe is, um, WORTH IT!
(and worth a title?)
4. MAVERICKS
They keep being mentioned as a major player, even though they are in the same conference. Kobe did list them and Buss apparently can withstand Mark Cuban, which is a rarity amongst owners.
But is this really a good fit? Why would the Lakers take all the supporting players on the Mavs, which is the first option, or the Mavs make themselves into the new Lakers, which is the second option? If the Mavs do give up Dirk, then Kobe gets to play with a supporting cast that helps him but doesn't have any stars like he wants. They'll have to involve more people to make it work, because the Mavs have no fours and the Lakers lots. So basically then, Kobe will be in the same situation as the past few years. If the Mavs don't give up Dirk, the Lakers will come away without any real stars (Josh Howard is good, but he's an overachiever who benefits greatly playing alongside Nowitzki) and a big hole on their roster... and the Mavs will be a two man team with the same problems Boston faces, only much worse. So I don't think this is going to happen in any way. The pieces just don't fit.
But then, Cuban has an itchy trigger finger...
5. KNICKS
As much as we all think the league wants this to happen, there's no way the pieces fit. The Knicks are better off managing the cap (whoops, Isiah) and acquiring space (yoinks) and positioning themselves for a big free agent down the road, like Kobe and LeBron in a few years. They haven't done that, instead trading for people they can't get rid of later. Nicely done.
The only way for them to even dream of Kobe is for the Lakers to accept a collection of overpaid guys who aren't stars. Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph may put up good numbers offensively, but they're nowhere near the franchise level the Lakers are looking for. The Knicks could throw a wave of young talent to go with them, but none of these guys are stars in any sense. The Lakers could go for the cap relief, knowing that they can sign free agents in a few years, but why not get someone actually good? New York just doesn't have enough... but I can't count them out, for obvious reasons.
6. HAWKS
Yeah, I know, Kobe would never approve of this. But someone threw out a swap of Joe Johnson and Al Horford for Kobe and one of the forwards. You know what? That's not a bad deal for either side. The Lakers get two young starters who are true quality (that's their best pickup outside of the Bulls), and the Hawks get a true star and someone the fans could actually care about for once. Too bad their ownership group would probably turn it down after fighting again.
7. ROCKETS
Kobe straight up for T Mac? With a couple of the Houston guards thrown in? It would work, I suppose, but would it help either team that much? Hmm... this is intriguing, even if I don't believe it....
8. CELTICS
Rumors that the Celtics would trade Pierce back to his native LA have been floating around for a while, epecially when he was unhappy. He's the rare player who could almost match Kobe's scoring and popularity..... but that would be pretty mean for Boston to finally give him help and then send him packing. After all, ownership loves him. It's why they mortgaged their future to get him other stars instead of trading him for a youth movement. So as much as it makes sense to LA people, it's not gonna happen.
9. SPURS
Kobe for Parker and Ginobli? It would simplify things, but the Lakers want a big man more than a point guard who shoots. Plus San Antonio likes their system how it is.
10. SIXERS
Iggy and T. Young won't get it done because then Kobe has no supporting cast again. He'd be replicating Iverson in the early years.... although, that might be enough to get somewhere in the East.
So as far as I see it, the Bulls are the most likely candidate by far. If Jersey cooks up something or the Suns change their minds, they might work, but the Bulls have the most to offer and the resources to survive. Will this happen anytime soon? I doubt it, but I can't say. I'll start my preview soon with eraser in hand.
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