As the holidays continue, I discovered that I had not wrote anything in a while, despite some juicy trades and the disappointing start of the Sixers. I don't like to really get into the season until January, or at least, in with my usual super intensity, but several things have already been determined:
1. The Celtics and Lakers will be awesome again.
2. The Cavs are excellent. But LeBron is making everyone in Cleveland nervous... or is he?
3. Much like last year, there are 9 good teams in the West and one of them will be left out. Then there are 6 who are young and building.... and have no shot.
4. Knick fans are more alive than they've been in years.
Let's go through the big changes. I'm disappointed in the Sixers, obviously, but I really hated to see Coach Mo go. He's classy and he got them to play a lot harder, and much better than expected, the last two years. I really thought they could give him more time. They look out of sync, but they're still in it, and I didn't think they would be super great this year. They need time to jell and to figure out where young guys fit in. They need another shooter on the outside, too. This was a quick pulling of the plug on a guy who got some votes for top coach last year.
As sad as I am to see of the great Sixers go, I'm pulling for another Leo, or at least a DiLeo. He might have some luck by changing things. The big problem is offense. I figured Brand and Iggy would both be able to get 20 a game, as they had been before, but no one is above 16 right now. Last year, I thought they really needed a post scorer / big man shooter to anchor that run-heavy offense, and Brand seemed to fit perfectly, but now it doesn't always look that way. I suppose they were best at being scrappy and going with a small offense with Thad at PF.... but then, where would that leave them in the long run? They were better than I thought they'd be last year, but I didn't see a terrific future without that big man. Now it's hard to tell where exactly they should be going.
Thankfully, they're not out of it, and there are only really 4 teams to be sure playoff faves in the East, although I do like Atlanta (feeling a little vindicated after everyone else said the Hawks would slip). But still, there's tons of room for them to get in without anyone looking great in the last few spots. I'm keeping my hopes up. Thad came out strong, which was good. Speights has shown some offense in a limited amount of time. They really, really need outside shooting. I don't wish the Korver trade reversed, but they do need to find a wing or guard who can shoot like that.
As for trades, the Knicks' revamping shouldn't have been surprising, but after they started well, it was a little odd to see them give up on that so quick. But they saw a way to get better for the future, and in the short term, Al Harrington fits their system nicely. They're really hoping for good draft picks and free agents in the coming years. Which might happen now....
On the other side of the country, the Clips haven't shown much life. Fortunately, unlike the bad Clippers of yesterday, they do have some talent. Their starters look great on paper, but this team has no chemistry or depth. I continue to hope that they trade Kaman for some help and then dump Dunleavy or at least get him to play a more freewheeling style. Zandolph was surprisingly good in D'Antoni's fast system, and everyone else seems to be suited for a quick pace. This can still work, even if Baron Davis is pulling a GOB Bluth and telling everyone he made a horrible mistake.
And up north, Golden State continues to mystify with how many wings Nellie can acquire and then throw out on the floor. Or not. Anthony Morrow exploded and then vanished just as quick, Bellinelli finally showed up in a real game, and then Jamal Crawford arrived as another two guard who will shoot at any time. Meanwhile, there are no inside scorers or true points. Nice. Even if they can fit Crawford and Monta Ellis together when he comes back, how do they balance minutes? Maybe they'll realize it wasn't worth it to get Magette when they had all wings anyway, and they've since added more. Weird team.
The other puzzling trade was the Suns taking advantage of the Bobcats. Jason Richardson gives Phoenix a wing who can shoot and pick up some outside scoring, while the Bobcats, who seem to always need scorers, traded their best one for two role players... not to mention Jared Dudley, who always got minutes. I guess Charlotte wants to use more two-point-guard sets (though that may also be a way to showcase Felton while they shop him) and really wanted a post creator. But Diaw has to match his one great season to even come close to giving this trade value. Mr. Jordan, you can start paying attention any day now.
Meanwhile, Phoenix can play Richardson at the 2 or 3 and give the Suns' perimeter a rest. They also realized that instead of finding a normal backup for Nash, they should just make sure Grant Hill is on the court when he's off as the de facto ball handler. When they don't have Shaq, they might considering going small again with Amare and Matt Barnes up front.
I feel bad because Phoenix and Dallas started off with problems but look much better now, and I think they could be contenders, but they're going to have to fight just to get in. Then again, no one besides the Lakers has really stepped up in the west. San Antonio quietly integrated new players and survived a rough stretch of injuries, so maybe I shouldn't have counted them out. Still trying to get a read on Utah and Houston as they deal with typical injuries. New Orleans and Portland are still learning, but doing well enough to be in the top teams.
I still hold a spot in my heart for Iverson, so it's rough to see Denver thrive without him, especially since they haven't really replaced Camby.... while Al's scoring drops big in Detroit and they're not the favorites I thought they'd still be. Alas. I hope he hasn't totally killed his future plans.
More trades are coming for sure. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland stays pat or tries to get another shooter. They might want another big guy who can shoot, since they only have three post guys they really use, and two of them can't score. I think every team but the Celtics can think of a trade that might help them, so this could be a crazy time.
I like my picks so far, except for the Pistons. They could still pull it together, but Boston and Cleveland are the real deal in the east. LeBron is the easy MVP, although Dwyane Wade has come back so strong. O.J. Mayo is the only rookie averaging 20, and that's a rare number for rookies these days, so I can feel good. Derrick Rose has probably impressed me more, though, and if he gets the Bulls in the playoffs, he has to win it (because that team is chaotic). I am disappointed in the Wizards, who managed to weather injuries before. At least they're picking up young guys. I think my COY would be Lawrence Frank, because he's the one guy in charge of a team that's really ahead of where I thought they'd be, but Mike Brown, Stan Van Gundy, and Gregg Poppovich have been taking good teams and doing more with less, i.e. talent and injury problems. D'Antoni and Skiles can jump in if their teams make the playoffs.
ALL NBA so far: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Dwight Howard, Garnett
2ND: C Paul, B Roy, Nowitzki, Duncan, Bosh
ALL ROOK: Mayo, D Rose, Beasley, R Westbrook, Rudy Fernandez
2ND: M Gasol, DJ Augustin, Mario Chalmers, Brook Lopez, Oden
DEF: Dwight Howard
MIP: Devin Harris
6TH: Jason Terry
I will look over all stars and post my choices before the big day.
Showing posts with label boston tea bagging. Show all posts
Showing posts with label boston tea bagging. Show all posts
Monday, December 29, 2008
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Leo's Big NBA Preview 08-09, Full Edition
Last time I gave win totals, finals, and major awards. Here's more in depth capsules of each team.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.
As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.
2. Utah Jazz
Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.
3. New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.
4. Houston Rockets
Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.
5. San Antonio Spurs
For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.
6. Phoenix Suns
I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.
7. Dallas Mavericks
I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.
9. Denver Nuggets
After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.
10. Los Angeles Clippers
After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.
11. Golden State Warriors
I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.
12. Sacramento Kings
The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.
14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces
Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.
1. Boston Celtics
The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....
2. Detroit Pistons
I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.
4. Orlando Magic
They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.
6. Toronto Raptors
From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.
7. Atlanta Hawks
It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.
8. Washington Wizards
Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.
9. Chicago Bulls
Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.
10. Indiana Pacers
This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.
11. Charlotte Bobcats
Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.
12. Miami Heat
I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.
13. Milwaukee Bucks
I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.
14. New York Knicks
The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.
15. New Jersey Nets
They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN
LAL over HOU
NO over UT
LAL over NO
BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL
BOS over ORL
DET over CLE
DET over BOS
FINALS: LAL over DET in 7
Wait, I already said that. Oh well.
Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:
ALL NBA
LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe
SECOND
Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade
THIRD
Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson
ALL ROOKIE
Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden
SECOND
Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts
ALL DEF
Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant
EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton
6th Man: Andre Kirilenko
Most Improved: Ramon Sessions
EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.
As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?
As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.
As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.
2. Utah Jazz
Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.
3. New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.
4. Houston Rockets
Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.
5. San Antonio Spurs
For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.
6. Phoenix Suns
I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.
7. Dallas Mavericks
I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.
9. Denver Nuggets
After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.
10. Los Angeles Clippers
After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.
11. Golden State Warriors
I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.
12. Sacramento Kings
The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.
14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces
Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.
1. Boston Celtics
The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....
2. Detroit Pistons
I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.
4. Orlando Magic
They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.
6. Toronto Raptors
From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.
7. Atlanta Hawks
It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.
8. Washington Wizards
Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.
9. Chicago Bulls
Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.
10. Indiana Pacers
This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.
11. Charlotte Bobcats
Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.
12. Miami Heat
I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.
13. Milwaukee Bucks
I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.
14. New York Knicks
The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.
15. New Jersey Nets
They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN
LAL over HOU
NO over UT
LAL over NO
BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL
BOS over ORL
DET over CLE
DET over BOS
FINALS: LAL over DET in 7
Wait, I already said that. Oh well.
Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:
ALL NBA
LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe
SECOND
Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade
THIRD
Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson
ALL ROOKIE
Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden
SECOND
Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts
ALL DEF
Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant
EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton
6th Man: Andre Kirilenko
Most Improved: Ramon Sessions
EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.
As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?
As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
not so fast, comrades
After 3 games, the finals present some interesting subplots. The Celtics are beating up on the Lakers inside, and Kobe looks pissed. I don't think he wanted to be selfish and take 50 shots a game, but now he might have to. Gasol and Odom are disappearing, and only spurts by Vujacic and Radmanovic shooting have helped them at all. Despite everyone in the entire basketball-watching world knowing that the Lakers would come out fired up for game 3, and get more calls going their way, they really didn't play great until the late going. Boston hung in there despite their big guns having off nights. Now I can see them winning a game in LA, which I highly doubted before the series started. Add that to the first two games, and I'm really wondering about the Lakers' chances.
The Lakers did make some nice moves by attacking more and having Kobe guard Rondo, who doesn't shoot a lot outside, but the Celts can counter this by playing House more (which, um, they should have been doing anyway). Pierce is still mysteriously guarded about his injury, so who knows. But even though the Lakers won last night, I'm very impressed by the Celtics. Of course, maybe the Lakers will put it together. And if Odom and Radman aren't doing anything, they should think about Ariza more. He can play D.
Some league-wide thoughts...
The Donaghy scandal took a sharp turn yesterday. I don't know if he's honest, but I always thought the Kings got a raw deal. Of course, so do lots of people. But still, he's waited to make these allegations 6 years after it happened and several months after he was arrested. To do it now shows he's more interested in saying F you to Stern than he is about being honest. He really wanted to stick the knife in his back.... if he had said this when he was first arrested, I might have believed him more. He needs proof before anything can really happen. But Stern looked extra pissed in his comments. I hope there's nothing going on.
I've been thinking about the draft and the different options Chicago (and thus Miami) have. Chicago doesn't need to start over, just move a few guys. Miami does. So when I heard about the trade rumors, I started thinking. I said the Bulls needed to take Beasley because it's hard to find a good big man, and they built their team up around a post player that they just don't have. Also, it's easy for them to move Gooden and Ty Thomas - really easy - to make room for Beasley, but it's nearly impossible to move Hinrich and Hughes to make room for Rose. So if Miami is really willing to deal Wade to move up, they can both benefit from this.
Here's how it could work - along with the right to switch picks, Miami gives up Wade and Udonis Haslem, who is solid but won't help them rebuild. Chicago sends them Gooden (cap filler), Thomas, and Ben Gordon (signed to a deal first). Now look at the potential lineups - Chciago has Noah, Beasley, Deng, Hinrich, and Wade, with Nocioni, Haslem, and Hughes coming off the bench. Miami has Gooden, Thomas, Marion, Rose, and Gordon, without a real center, but that's a fun team to watch. Plus, they can evaluate and will probably have a high pick next year.
I just keep thinking about styles and how people will mesh. Wade dominates the ball, which is why I'm so curious about the Heat initially wanting Rose. I don't know if they fit together. You need a shooter alongside Wade, which might be why the Heat are looking at O. J. Mayo now. He fits with Wade. This trade would create some nice backcourts: Wade would relieve Hinrich of ball handling pressure, and Hinrich could focus more on D and hitting jumpers, which is more his thing. Rose would have the ball in his hand and be flanked by up-tempo players who could fit a good running scheme (Marion, Thomas, Gordon raining outside jumpers). With Beasley inside, and Wade outside, Deng and Hinrich only have to be supporting players, and I think Chicago would be fantastic. That's a devastating offense if they work together. Miami would give up a lot, but then they'd have an exciting team to watch and only one more guy to find. I like this. I like it a lot. Even if the Heat aren't planning on keeping Marion, maybe they can get the Bulls to throw in Deng or Nocioni.
I was really pushing this upon the news of Doug Collins coming back to the Bulls, as he plays slow, half-cort sets. But that's not happening now. I still like it.
If Chicago still takes Rose anyway, that could set off some other stuff. I don't think they can trade Hinrich easily, but I did suggest in my trade deadline column that they might consider sending him and some big guys to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal. Who knows if JO will be healthy again, but it would solve their problems of lacking a dominant big man and finding a taker for Hinrich. If Indiana can get Eric Gordon in the draft, and pair him with Hinrich, that might work. They can get Thomas to be the new PF, and they also might want to give Ike Diogu more minutes. This is a possibility.
Miami would then go after Mayo, since they're not high on Beasley and O.J. fits well with Wade. They could trade down, and I think Memphis would be smart to offer some pieces. Miami would take Mike Miller and/ or Kyle Lowry any day, if that works, and then hope to get Mayo at number five. Maybe they could send something to Minnesota in hopes that the Wolves do not take Mayo.... maybe they take back Antoine Walker's contract? That might help, if that's possible. I can't calculate it right now, but they might work out some sort of agreement. This would help each team.
I guess we'll just have to see in a few weeks.
The Lakers did make some nice moves by attacking more and having Kobe guard Rondo, who doesn't shoot a lot outside, but the Celts can counter this by playing House more (which, um, they should have been doing anyway). Pierce is still mysteriously guarded about his injury, so who knows. But even though the Lakers won last night, I'm very impressed by the Celtics. Of course, maybe the Lakers will put it together. And if Odom and Radman aren't doing anything, they should think about Ariza more. He can play D.
Some league-wide thoughts...
The Donaghy scandal took a sharp turn yesterday. I don't know if he's honest, but I always thought the Kings got a raw deal. Of course, so do lots of people. But still, he's waited to make these allegations 6 years after it happened and several months after he was arrested. To do it now shows he's more interested in saying F you to Stern than he is about being honest. He really wanted to stick the knife in his back.... if he had said this when he was first arrested, I might have believed him more. He needs proof before anything can really happen. But Stern looked extra pissed in his comments. I hope there's nothing going on.
I've been thinking about the draft and the different options Chicago (and thus Miami) have. Chicago doesn't need to start over, just move a few guys. Miami does. So when I heard about the trade rumors, I started thinking. I said the Bulls needed to take Beasley because it's hard to find a good big man, and they built their team up around a post player that they just don't have. Also, it's easy for them to move Gooden and Ty Thomas - really easy - to make room for Beasley, but it's nearly impossible to move Hinrich and Hughes to make room for Rose. So if Miami is really willing to deal Wade to move up, they can both benefit from this.
Here's how it could work - along with the right to switch picks, Miami gives up Wade and Udonis Haslem, who is solid but won't help them rebuild. Chicago sends them Gooden (cap filler), Thomas, and Ben Gordon (signed to a deal first). Now look at the potential lineups - Chciago has Noah, Beasley, Deng, Hinrich, and Wade, with Nocioni, Haslem, and Hughes coming off the bench. Miami has Gooden, Thomas, Marion, Rose, and Gordon, without a real center, but that's a fun team to watch. Plus, they can evaluate and will probably have a high pick next year.
I just keep thinking about styles and how people will mesh. Wade dominates the ball, which is why I'm so curious about the Heat initially wanting Rose. I don't know if they fit together. You need a shooter alongside Wade, which might be why the Heat are looking at O. J. Mayo now. He fits with Wade. This trade would create some nice backcourts: Wade would relieve Hinrich of ball handling pressure, and Hinrich could focus more on D and hitting jumpers, which is more his thing. Rose would have the ball in his hand and be flanked by up-tempo players who could fit a good running scheme (Marion, Thomas, Gordon raining outside jumpers). With Beasley inside, and Wade outside, Deng and Hinrich only have to be supporting players, and I think Chicago would be fantastic. That's a devastating offense if they work together. Miami would give up a lot, but then they'd have an exciting team to watch and only one more guy to find. I like this. I like it a lot. Even if the Heat aren't planning on keeping Marion, maybe they can get the Bulls to throw in Deng or Nocioni.
I was really pushing this upon the news of Doug Collins coming back to the Bulls, as he plays slow, half-cort sets. But that's not happening now. I still like it.
If Chicago still takes Rose anyway, that could set off some other stuff. I don't think they can trade Hinrich easily, but I did suggest in my trade deadline column that they might consider sending him and some big guys to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal. Who knows if JO will be healthy again, but it would solve their problems of lacking a dominant big man and finding a taker for Hinrich. If Indiana can get Eric Gordon in the draft, and pair him with Hinrich, that might work. They can get Thomas to be the new PF, and they also might want to give Ike Diogu more minutes. This is a possibility.
Miami would then go after Mayo, since they're not high on Beasley and O.J. fits well with Wade. They could trade down, and I think Memphis would be smart to offer some pieces. Miami would take Mike Miller and/ or Kyle Lowry any day, if that works, and then hope to get Mayo at number five. Maybe they could send something to Minnesota in hopes that the Wolves do not take Mayo.... maybe they take back Antoine Walker's contract? That might help, if that's possible. I can't calculate it right now, but they might work out some sort of agreement. This would help each team.
I guess we'll just have to see in a few weeks.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Lakers vs. Celtics and the NBA Playoffs
Ahhhh, yes. I remember the first real basketball game I got for Genesis, Electronic Arts' first foyer into sports gaming (I think). They named it after the two classic franchises who had battled so much, even though the year it came out, the finals actually featured Detroit beating Portand. In their defense, that would've sounded so much lamer. Also, the Lakers and Celtics were seen as the great rivals, even though they only met 3 times in the 80's, although they did account for 8 titles and one of them was in the finals every year. In any case, EA wanted to make their debut by paying homage, and it's a nice touch for a maker whose games have really been a part of my life.
That's just one of the 50 million nostalgic stories that are circulating this week. It's my personal favorite aspect of that nostalgia, but I must admit that I'm kinda disappointed. I know I should be happy for the league and excited that ratings will be high and I won't be so mocked for loving basketball. I see everyone jumping on board and that's cool.... but I'm also a little dismayed by how things came to be.
I always hate to see LA and New York get all the attention and have things handed to them at times. Maybe now I should throw Boston in there as well. Yes, I'm still fuming a little over the Gasol trade. I don't hate the Lakers, and I don't hate Kobe (my MVP vote, even if it means nothing, was all for him), but I don't feel like they really deserved that. They should have suffered for the Shaq deal and the subsequent Kwame deal, but then it all magically turned better for them. Being out here, I here from fans that it was just a right of life; that they expected it, and that it was just another good thing to happen to them. Everyone else was furious. Remember this.
As for the Celtics, their trades weren't nearly as one-sided, and they gave up some young guys, but they're still a strange team. They're thrown together oddly, like the '97 Florida Marlins, as a mixture of vets looking for a title with a few key draftees who step up. I like all their guys, actually, but I don't feel like this is a real Celtics team. It could have been any team that had the right pieces and used them, but of course it was the team with the most titles in history. I'd feel better if it was some place tortured, like Cleveland or Indiana.... umm, maybe Philly... just saying.... but no, it's Boston. Again.
So I don't really have any rooting interest. I guess I would root for the Celtics because I like their individual guys, but they're getting awfully spoiled in Boston. I know the Celtics have been terrible for a while, unlike the Pats and Sawx, but they're still the most successful franchise in league history. I don't feel anything for the Lakers for that trade, and also for the fact that I know they're going to be good the next few years - even better, in fact, with Andrew Bynum coming back. I didn't think they could make it this far without him and they did, so what will they do next year?
Who do I like? I think I hate everyone. I'm from Philly, so that's okay.
What is my actual prediction? Let's break this down:
BOS DEF: The Celtics played defense when it counted. They can shut down big guys and point guards, but they struggle with wings. This might be why they didn't dominate early in the playoffs - Atlanta was all young wings, Cleveland survived only on LeBron. They just didn't match up well. Detroit needed a big series from Sheed and didn't get it, and Garnett helped that. Billups was hurt, but Rondo is also doing good. The only guy that really killed Boston was Rip Hamilton, but that was enough.
Well, the Lakers have the best wing in the league, and they don't offer much at point guard, so that doesn't really help the Celts at all. I'm interested to see how Boston matches up down low - Perkins and KG have been great on D, but if the Lakers keep their smaller lineups, one of them is going to have to face Odom or Radmanovic. I think Garnett is versatile enough to do that, but it pulls him away from the basket. Gasol can do that too with his midrange game, so maybe LA will stay out of the paint.
Interestingly, when these teams met this season, the Celts basically let Kobe open a lot outside and dared him to shoot every time. It worked, as he shot a lot, but didn't get others involved, they won both games. But the Spurs just tried to do the same thing, and it didn't work for them. If Ray Allen isn't making shots, I think they have to use Posey. Even if he is, they probably want to make Kobe work a little bit.
The Celts' D is good, but they're in for a tough battle because....
LA O: They're rolling. They can all shoot, and Kobe is dying to prove himself. I think Gasol is a little too outside for Perkins, and Odom can be all over the place. He's my choice as the biggest X factor in this series. He can take advantage of Pierce if he wants to. The Celts will try to be physical, but the Lakers have rolled over the Spurs and Jazz, who have bigger frontlines and usually knock people around.
BOS O / LA DEF: The Celts are good, but if Ray isn't hitting shots, they're in trouble. Garnett needs to step up big here, but it's not his tendency. Pierce can probably go off on anyone, but he'll be matched by Kobe. The Lakers are weak on both ends at the point, so Rondo could have some big games, but he's not a scorer. The Celts should watch when the subs are in. Jordan Farmar is struggling and they could get Eddie House some open looks.
The Lakers will try to minimize the size advantage by playing small and fast and just outscoring the Celtics. Kobe, determined more than ever, might have some good looks on Pierce, but probably he'll stick Allen and just watch his shots. The Celts might try to abuse them down low with depth, by bringing in P. J. Brown, Leon Powe and Big Baby, while the Lakers only have Turiaf on their bench. If Odom, Gasol, or Turiaf gets in foul trouble, that could help the Celts big time.
Bottom line, the Lakers have more weapons and match up well. This is a nice matchup in that one team relying strongly on offense will go against one relying on D. I just don't think Boston's strengths match with the Lakers' weaknesses. The Lakers scored a ton against the Spurs, who have been great defensively for a long time. The Celtics can't match that firepower if the games are high-scoring. If Ray catches fire and Garnett plays like he should, the Celtics could pull it out. I just don't see it.
Lakers in 6.
That's just one of the 50 million nostalgic stories that are circulating this week. It's my personal favorite aspect of that nostalgia, but I must admit that I'm kinda disappointed. I know I should be happy for the league and excited that ratings will be high and I won't be so mocked for loving basketball. I see everyone jumping on board and that's cool.... but I'm also a little dismayed by how things came to be.
I always hate to see LA and New York get all the attention and have things handed to them at times. Maybe now I should throw Boston in there as well. Yes, I'm still fuming a little over the Gasol trade. I don't hate the Lakers, and I don't hate Kobe (my MVP vote, even if it means nothing, was all for him), but I don't feel like they really deserved that. They should have suffered for the Shaq deal and the subsequent Kwame deal, but then it all magically turned better for them. Being out here, I here from fans that it was just a right of life; that they expected it, and that it was just another good thing to happen to them. Everyone else was furious. Remember this.
As for the Celtics, their trades weren't nearly as one-sided, and they gave up some young guys, but they're still a strange team. They're thrown together oddly, like the '97 Florida Marlins, as a mixture of vets looking for a title with a few key draftees who step up. I like all their guys, actually, but I don't feel like this is a real Celtics team. It could have been any team that had the right pieces and used them, but of course it was the team with the most titles in history. I'd feel better if it was some place tortured, like Cleveland or Indiana.... umm, maybe Philly... just saying.... but no, it's Boston. Again.
So I don't really have any rooting interest. I guess I would root for the Celtics because I like their individual guys, but they're getting awfully spoiled in Boston. I know the Celtics have been terrible for a while, unlike the Pats and Sawx, but they're still the most successful franchise in league history. I don't feel anything for the Lakers for that trade, and also for the fact that I know they're going to be good the next few years - even better, in fact, with Andrew Bynum coming back. I didn't think they could make it this far without him and they did, so what will they do next year?
Who do I like? I think I hate everyone. I'm from Philly, so that's okay.
What is my actual prediction? Let's break this down:
BOS DEF: The Celtics played defense when it counted. They can shut down big guys and point guards, but they struggle with wings. This might be why they didn't dominate early in the playoffs - Atlanta was all young wings, Cleveland survived only on LeBron. They just didn't match up well. Detroit needed a big series from Sheed and didn't get it, and Garnett helped that. Billups was hurt, but Rondo is also doing good. The only guy that really killed Boston was Rip Hamilton, but that was enough.
Well, the Lakers have the best wing in the league, and they don't offer much at point guard, so that doesn't really help the Celts at all. I'm interested to see how Boston matches up down low - Perkins and KG have been great on D, but if the Lakers keep their smaller lineups, one of them is going to have to face Odom or Radmanovic. I think Garnett is versatile enough to do that, but it pulls him away from the basket. Gasol can do that too with his midrange game, so maybe LA will stay out of the paint.
Interestingly, when these teams met this season, the Celts basically let Kobe open a lot outside and dared him to shoot every time. It worked, as he shot a lot, but didn't get others involved, they won both games. But the Spurs just tried to do the same thing, and it didn't work for them. If Ray Allen isn't making shots, I think they have to use Posey. Even if he is, they probably want to make Kobe work a little bit.
The Celts' D is good, but they're in for a tough battle because....
LA O: They're rolling. They can all shoot, and Kobe is dying to prove himself. I think Gasol is a little too outside for Perkins, and Odom can be all over the place. He's my choice as the biggest X factor in this series. He can take advantage of Pierce if he wants to. The Celts will try to be physical, but the Lakers have rolled over the Spurs and Jazz, who have bigger frontlines and usually knock people around.
BOS O / LA DEF: The Celts are good, but if Ray isn't hitting shots, they're in trouble. Garnett needs to step up big here, but it's not his tendency. Pierce can probably go off on anyone, but he'll be matched by Kobe. The Lakers are weak on both ends at the point, so Rondo could have some big games, but he's not a scorer. The Celts should watch when the subs are in. Jordan Farmar is struggling and they could get Eddie House some open looks.
The Lakers will try to minimize the size advantage by playing small and fast and just outscoring the Celtics. Kobe, determined more than ever, might have some good looks on Pierce, but probably he'll stick Allen and just watch his shots. The Celts might try to abuse them down low with depth, by bringing in P. J. Brown, Leon Powe and Big Baby, while the Lakers only have Turiaf on their bench. If Odom, Gasol, or Turiaf gets in foul trouble, that could help the Celts big time.
Bottom line, the Lakers have more weapons and match up well. This is a nice matchup in that one team relying strongly on offense will go against one relying on D. I just don't think Boston's strengths match with the Lakers' weaknesses. The Lakers scored a ton against the Spurs, who have been great defensively for a long time. The Celtics can't match that firepower if the games are high-scoring. If Ray catches fire and Garnett plays like he should, the Celtics could pull it out. I just don't see it.
Lakers in 6.
Monday, May 28, 2007
tip of the hat, wag of the finger to you, conference finals
In honor of Memorial Day, I present a scheme from the most patriotic man alive.
TIP OF THE HAT
Deron Williams - playing great, even if Utah has no chance. I didn't think his style worked for the Jazz, but he changed and made the rare step from awkward to svelte playmaker in one year. Thank GOD... we need all the great pointmen we can possibly have. I'm ecstatic for him.
LeBron - didn't deserve all the crap for making the pass at the end of game 1, but perhaps should have passed at the end of game 2. Did he let the talk get to him? Now, people are saying (as I have been) that he needs to make the finals and possibly win (or do great) just to get attention for the league.
uhhh... YEAH!
That's why I picked the Cavs to win... Stern knows another Spurs-Pistons series is going to turn people away. Plus, they haven't been that bad. They may have got down in a 2-0 hole, but they could have won both those games by hitting open jumpers. For Detroit to barely win in their own building, even when they held LB to 10, and for Cleveland to win heartily at home... why doesn't anyone think the Cavs are legit? They might get "help" from the refs, but they have been much better in this series than they were last year.
I hope LeBron turns it on as well, and I think it'll happen. They'll MAKE it happen, if you know what I mean.
Portland - stay classy.
And remember that the Sixers have much better trading chips for Zach than the Lakers.
WAG OF THE FINGER
Boston - to the Sports Guy, to all Bostonians, to New England sports writers.... knock it off. You're acting like the franchise was going to be in a groove like those 60's teams once Oden came, and now, suddenly, they're the new Clippers. This is a letdown, admittedly a major one, but your franchise is not cursed, and your team is not dead. This is not going to kill you guys for years and years without end.
Weren't you in the playoffs recently? Weren't you in the conference finals this decade? You act like this team has been total shite since Bird left, but that's not true. Yes, the Pitino era was a waste, but this decade has been up and down. If you really want a great post player, you have better trading options than Chicago does for Pau Gasol. If you land up with Al Horford, I still think you have one of the better front lines in the East. Yes, Danny and Doc are morons, but you're not dead. Far from it.
Look, unless there's another Jordan (unlikely) with a good setup (extremely unlikely), no one team is ever going to win like those great Bulls or old Celtics teams did. The league is too spread out and watered down now. That may be a bad thing, as Simmons often attests, but I think it promotes fairness. The best teams in the future are going to be like the Spurs - several titles spread out over a long period of time. No more dynasties, unless miracles happen. Even if Oden does become the next Duncan, it won't mean that you're always guaranteed a title. You have to build smart, like the Spurs have.... and I guarantee Danny would probably bring in the wrong guys (but at least they'd have good brain types!). So stop whining.
Remember when you and Philly were the class of the East in the early 80's? We haven't had nearly the success you did since 1983. Do we think we're cursed? Actually, yes, many do, but we also know that stupid people are at fault for many problems.
Fans of Utah - wearing light blue is not intimidating, unless you are at Chapel Hill.
Chicago Bulls Mgmt. - in light of the fact that you overpaid for Ben Wallace, you need to get Gasol and get him now. This is a good draft, but no one at #9 can help you. Give up Ty Thomas, give up Selfosha if you must, give up your next ten friggin' draft picks, but do not wait. You put a limit on how quickly you want to contend by forking over that cash to an older undersized guy. Why wait with Thomas, who might be too close to Deng in style anyway? I don't know why this hasn't happened yet.
Young guards - I've been thinking about how so many teams need to fill a hole at a guard spot, and how there should be great young guards coming into the league. While there have been, I look at many teams with big holes in the back court. They're one guard away from being good. And yet, not enough kids are stepping up... and even worse, they only need to do a little to do so.
For all these 6-4 or so guys that come into the league with delusions of grandeur and get kicked out, I say to you, now is one of the best times to be a guard in the L. Because you only need to do two things well anymore in order to get a job:
1. Play defense.
2. Hit threes.
That's it. Don't worry about being a complete one or two; only a very select few can be prime players there. Unless you're a true star at a defined position, you might need to become a specialist. This is not terrible. In fact, you could be starting for a great team if you just concentrated on these two things.
You see, I think the league is becoming kind of like college now, where you have great lead guards who are not necessarily ones or twos. Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Iverson, Arenas, Parker, Bibby... these guys can shoot and score and do everything. They don't need great handlers next to them; they just need guys who can shoot an open J and play D. That's all. Cleveland, La Lakers, Miami, and others have been saving their cash with question marks at the point because they don't care.
It's been driving me crazy these playoffs that only a few people, like Bruce Bowen and Raja Bell, have realized what it takes for someone to succeed in the NBA. Few guys are talented enough to be true stars or big time scorers. Most just aren't, when you place them in the best competition. Those guys realized that they can have long and productive careers by succeeding at two seemingly simple tasks. Yet, no one is stepping up for Utah or Cleveland, when the opportunity is right there. You could be starting for a Finals team if you just concentrated on two things: defense and treys.
So for all you youngins out there who think you're the next LB or KB or whatnot, try these two fundamentals out. Practice them. Learn them. You might just get yourself a fat contract for years and years.
TIP OF THE HAT
Deron Williams - playing great, even if Utah has no chance. I didn't think his style worked for the Jazz, but he changed and made the rare step from awkward to svelte playmaker in one year. Thank GOD... we need all the great pointmen we can possibly have. I'm ecstatic for him.
LeBron - didn't deserve all the crap for making the pass at the end of game 1, but perhaps should have passed at the end of game 2. Did he let the talk get to him? Now, people are saying (as I have been) that he needs to make the finals and possibly win (or do great) just to get attention for the league.
uhhh... YEAH!
That's why I picked the Cavs to win... Stern knows another Spurs-Pistons series is going to turn people away. Plus, they haven't been that bad. They may have got down in a 2-0 hole, but they could have won both those games by hitting open jumpers. For Detroit to barely win in their own building, even when they held LB to 10, and for Cleveland to win heartily at home... why doesn't anyone think the Cavs are legit? They might get "help" from the refs, but they have been much better in this series than they were last year.
I hope LeBron turns it on as well, and I think it'll happen. They'll MAKE it happen, if you know what I mean.
Portland - stay classy.
And remember that the Sixers have much better trading chips for Zach than the Lakers.
WAG OF THE FINGER
Boston - to the Sports Guy, to all Bostonians, to New England sports writers.... knock it off. You're acting like the franchise was going to be in a groove like those 60's teams once Oden came, and now, suddenly, they're the new Clippers. This is a letdown, admittedly a major one, but your franchise is not cursed, and your team is not dead. This is not going to kill you guys for years and years without end.
Weren't you in the playoffs recently? Weren't you in the conference finals this decade? You act like this team has been total shite since Bird left, but that's not true. Yes, the Pitino era was a waste, but this decade has been up and down. If you really want a great post player, you have better trading options than Chicago does for Pau Gasol. If you land up with Al Horford, I still think you have one of the better front lines in the East. Yes, Danny and Doc are morons, but you're not dead. Far from it.
Look, unless there's another Jordan (unlikely) with a good setup (extremely unlikely), no one team is ever going to win like those great Bulls or old Celtics teams did. The league is too spread out and watered down now. That may be a bad thing, as Simmons often attests, but I think it promotes fairness. The best teams in the future are going to be like the Spurs - several titles spread out over a long period of time. No more dynasties, unless miracles happen. Even if Oden does become the next Duncan, it won't mean that you're always guaranteed a title. You have to build smart, like the Spurs have.... and I guarantee Danny would probably bring in the wrong guys (but at least they'd have good brain types!). So stop whining.
Remember when you and Philly were the class of the East in the early 80's? We haven't had nearly the success you did since 1983. Do we think we're cursed? Actually, yes, many do, but we also know that stupid people are at fault for many problems.
Fans of Utah - wearing light blue is not intimidating, unless you are at Chapel Hill.
Chicago Bulls Mgmt. - in light of the fact that you overpaid for Ben Wallace, you need to get Gasol and get him now. This is a good draft, but no one at #9 can help you. Give up Ty Thomas, give up Selfosha if you must, give up your next ten friggin' draft picks, but do not wait. You put a limit on how quickly you want to contend by forking over that cash to an older undersized guy. Why wait with Thomas, who might be too close to Deng in style anyway? I don't know why this hasn't happened yet.
Young guards - I've been thinking about how so many teams need to fill a hole at a guard spot, and how there should be great young guards coming into the league. While there have been, I look at many teams with big holes in the back court. They're one guard away from being good. And yet, not enough kids are stepping up... and even worse, they only need to do a little to do so.
For all these 6-4 or so guys that come into the league with delusions of grandeur and get kicked out, I say to you, now is one of the best times to be a guard in the L. Because you only need to do two things well anymore in order to get a job:
1. Play defense.
2. Hit threes.
That's it. Don't worry about being a complete one or two; only a very select few can be prime players there. Unless you're a true star at a defined position, you might need to become a specialist. This is not terrible. In fact, you could be starting for a great team if you just concentrated on these two things.
You see, I think the league is becoming kind of like college now, where you have great lead guards who are not necessarily ones or twos. Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Iverson, Arenas, Parker, Bibby... these guys can shoot and score and do everything. They don't need great handlers next to them; they just need guys who can shoot an open J and play D. That's all. Cleveland, La Lakers, Miami, and others have been saving their cash with question marks at the point because they don't care.
It's been driving me crazy these playoffs that only a few people, like Bruce Bowen and Raja Bell, have realized what it takes for someone to succeed in the NBA. Few guys are talented enough to be true stars or big time scorers. Most just aren't, when you place them in the best competition. Those guys realized that they can have long and productive careers by succeeding at two seemingly simple tasks. Yet, no one is stepping up for Utah or Cleveland, when the opportunity is right there. You could be starting for a Finals team if you just concentrated on two things: defense and treys.
So for all you youngins out there who think you're the next LB or KB or whatnot, try these two fundamentals out. Practice them. Learn them. You might just get yourself a fat contract for years and years.
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