Well, I realized that my NBA preview is flawed in a small way. I had Miami, Orlando, and Atlanta as the top 3 seeds in the East. That is technically impossible. They all play in the same division, so that means that one of them would be a 5 seed. The NBA gives the top 4 seeds in each conference to the division winners plus the best wild card, in order of record. Then, everyone else starts at 5. They did this after they realized how bad it would be if the best 2 teams in the conference would be in the same division (and it happened a lot with San Antonio and Dallas in those first few years after they switched to 6 divisions).
I feel especially stupid because I was just explaining to someone how, in 2007, the top three teams in the East were all in the same division (Pistons, Cavs, Bulls) and the way it worked out may have helped the Cavs get to the finals. The Bulls were just behind the Cavs for the number 2 spot but had to settle for the 5th seed.
So, if Miami, Orlando, and Atlanta finish with the three best records in the East, the worst of them still gets the 5th seed. I thought about this after they all got off to good starts. BUT, the Celtics are off to a good start as well, so they might be in there. I expected Boston and Chicago to win their divisions easily, so they would get the 3 and 4 seeds. This setup might help the Celtics get a 3 seed even more easily, and propel them to the conference finals.
Showing posts with label boston celtics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label boston celtics. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Thursday, June 19, 2008
finals thoughts, and the incredible shrinking beasley
After a day joyously listening to the LA fans display anger and embarrassment, I had to think about just what happened. Not just in that game 6 blowout, but the whole series. I jumped on board the Lakers-can't-lose bandwagon, and I'm glad I was wrong, but I'm surprised to see people getting upset so quickly. This wasn't supposed to be a strong year for the Lakers; they spent all summer trying to satisfy Kobe and were never at full strength for the latter half of the season. They won one of the toughest conferences in recent memory despite new people and a large hole at center. They beat the Spurs and the Jazz without a huge front line. Now the fans want an overhaul?
Chill out, LA: you may look bad now, but if Bynum comes back, there's really not much to worry about. Gasol and Odom had to play bigger then they should in the finals, and Boston was the only team to really expose it. But if they have Bynum, Gasol only now has to worry about the 4, and Odom can go back out to the wing. That's a huge front line, as I've said before, and athletic. They can absolutely dominate with that big front line and Kobe in the back. Their main problems in the finals were rebounding and interior defense; Bynum helps to solve that. Adding him in makes them huge again and completely changes the opposition's defensive plans. I really think it's that simple for them.
Of course, people want an overhaul, and believe that they can get it for nothing (well, they did last year). There's no way the Lakers can or should do that. Odom, however, is going to be a free agent next year, so his contract might be attractive to other teams. I predicted that he would be out, because of that contract, when the Lakers were looking for trades to help Kobe. Maybe now the Lakers will take a quick look at what's available. I'd keep him for next year, unless something great comes up. He faded in this series, but if he gets to play more on the perimeter, and he's not the main focus, he does better. He had to play down low all the time and he was expected to take a lot of shots, and that's not his style. Bynum teamed with Gasol would allow him to take advantage of smaller wings and contribute on the boards as a slashing wing, not a true post player. Trust me, he's much more effective that way.
Bynum's health should be the key issue of the summer for them. Even if he comes back strong, though, they might want to look at a legitimate backup center who can board and mix it up inside (Desanga Diop? someone like that?). Other than that, I don't think they have to go crazy. I would trade Radmanovic or Walton, but I doubt other teams are that interested.
Anyway, it was nice to see Boston's guys get it, even if I can't have much sympathy for the franchise or the city right now. They're a likable bunch. Considering everything that's happened, I guess it's the best outcome. I feel for the Phoenix guys, but I can't think of any team besides the Sixers that I could really root for like the group Boston had.
------------------------------
Onto draft matters.... June is such a great month for hoops. Imagine if the NFL held their draft a week after the Super Bowl happened.
I'm getting worried by all the Beasley stories. I thought Chicago should just take him and forget about everything else. It was too simple. But now, in light of his height revelation, I am starting to back off a little. It's not that I think he'll be a bust, but if he's not a legitimate four, his value goes way down. Bigger guys are harder to replace, and if his real position is the three, he's just not as attractive, even though I'm fairly convinced he can score 20 a night from day one. It would kinda kill what Chicago needs, and Miami already has Marion and Haslem. They can't go that small with all three. So if he's projected as a small forward - which he was by scouts at the beginning of the season - I don't really know if he should be the first pick. The Bulls know Rose will be a solid true point. If they don't know if Beasley will be a solid true PF, maybe that makes it easier for them.
Of course, he'll have plenty of suitors. Miami could deal the pick to Memphis, to get some players and the fifth pick to get Mayo, but then the Wolves could deal the next pick to other teams who also want Mayo. I'm thinking that if Miami wants Mayo more than Beasley, but knows that Mayo won't slip past three or four, then they'll probably just have to accept Minnesota's offer. The Wolves could give Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man, and they have two early second round picks. It's something. Miami gets the guy they want and some extra pieces for depth. Minnesota has a tough tandem with Jefferson and Beasley, and they have the time to figure out which positions those guys should play.
I don't know why Memphis likes Kevin Love at # 5. They could trade down, package that with all their extra pieces for an established star, or go for someone with more promise like Anthony Randolph. Love and Darko together? That's not going anywhere.
This is going to be a great week. There's so many potential moves. Right now, if I had to do a mock (and I love doing these), here's my idea:
1. Bulls - Derrick Rose
2. Wolves (trade) - Michael Beasley
3. Heat (trade) - O.J. Mayo
4. Sonics - Jarryd Bayless
5. Grizzlies - Anthony Randolph (just think about it, please, or fold the team)
6. Knicks - Russell Westbrook
7. Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Bucks - Joe Alexander
9. Bobcats - Brook Lopez
10. Nets - Kevin Love
11. Pacers - D.J. Augustin
12. Kings - Danilo Gallinari (surprised he drops, but he doesn't fit in NJ and they can play him next to Artest for now)
13. Blazers - DeAndre Jordan (they'll trade this to someone)
14. Warriors - Donte Greene
15. Suns - Brandon Rush (if he's gone, they may make some trades)
16. Sixers - Marreese Speights
17. Raptors - Robin Lopez
18. Wizards - Roy Hibbert
19. Cavs - Kostas Koufos
20. Nuggets - JaVale McGee
21. Nets - Darell Arthur
22. Magic - Courtney Lee
23. Jazz - Nicolas Batum
24. Sonics - Serge Ibaka
25. Rockets - Jason Thompson
26. Spurs - Mario Chalmers
27. Hornets - Chris Douglas-Roberts
28. Grizzlies - J.J. Hickson
29. Pistons - Alex Anjia
30. Celtics - Nathan Jawal
Chill out, LA: you may look bad now, but if Bynum comes back, there's really not much to worry about. Gasol and Odom had to play bigger then they should in the finals, and Boston was the only team to really expose it. But if they have Bynum, Gasol only now has to worry about the 4, and Odom can go back out to the wing. That's a huge front line, as I've said before, and athletic. They can absolutely dominate with that big front line and Kobe in the back. Their main problems in the finals were rebounding and interior defense; Bynum helps to solve that. Adding him in makes them huge again and completely changes the opposition's defensive plans. I really think it's that simple for them.
Of course, people want an overhaul, and believe that they can get it for nothing (well, they did last year). There's no way the Lakers can or should do that. Odom, however, is going to be a free agent next year, so his contract might be attractive to other teams. I predicted that he would be out, because of that contract, when the Lakers were looking for trades to help Kobe. Maybe now the Lakers will take a quick look at what's available. I'd keep him for next year, unless something great comes up. He faded in this series, but if he gets to play more on the perimeter, and he's not the main focus, he does better. He had to play down low all the time and he was expected to take a lot of shots, and that's not his style. Bynum teamed with Gasol would allow him to take advantage of smaller wings and contribute on the boards as a slashing wing, not a true post player. Trust me, he's much more effective that way.
Bynum's health should be the key issue of the summer for them. Even if he comes back strong, though, they might want to look at a legitimate backup center who can board and mix it up inside (Desanga Diop? someone like that?). Other than that, I don't think they have to go crazy. I would trade Radmanovic or Walton, but I doubt other teams are that interested.
Anyway, it was nice to see Boston's guys get it, even if I can't have much sympathy for the franchise or the city right now. They're a likable bunch. Considering everything that's happened, I guess it's the best outcome. I feel for the Phoenix guys, but I can't think of any team besides the Sixers that I could really root for like the group Boston had.
------------------------------
Onto draft matters.... June is such a great month for hoops. Imagine if the NFL held their draft a week after the Super Bowl happened.
I'm getting worried by all the Beasley stories. I thought Chicago should just take him and forget about everything else. It was too simple. But now, in light of his height revelation, I am starting to back off a little. It's not that I think he'll be a bust, but if he's not a legitimate four, his value goes way down. Bigger guys are harder to replace, and if his real position is the three, he's just not as attractive, even though I'm fairly convinced he can score 20 a night from day one. It would kinda kill what Chicago needs, and Miami already has Marion and Haslem. They can't go that small with all three. So if he's projected as a small forward - which he was by scouts at the beginning of the season - I don't really know if he should be the first pick. The Bulls know Rose will be a solid true point. If they don't know if Beasley will be a solid true PF, maybe that makes it easier for them.
Of course, he'll have plenty of suitors. Miami could deal the pick to Memphis, to get some players and the fifth pick to get Mayo, but then the Wolves could deal the next pick to other teams who also want Mayo. I'm thinking that if Miami wants Mayo more than Beasley, but knows that Mayo won't slip past three or four, then they'll probably just have to accept Minnesota's offer. The Wolves could give Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man, and they have two early second round picks. It's something. Miami gets the guy they want and some extra pieces for depth. Minnesota has a tough tandem with Jefferson and Beasley, and they have the time to figure out which positions those guys should play.
I don't know why Memphis likes Kevin Love at # 5. They could trade down, package that with all their extra pieces for an established star, or go for someone with more promise like Anthony Randolph. Love and Darko together? That's not going anywhere.
This is going to be a great week. There's so many potential moves. Right now, if I had to do a mock (and I love doing these), here's my idea:
1. Bulls - Derrick Rose
2. Wolves (trade) - Michael Beasley
3. Heat (trade) - O.J. Mayo
4. Sonics - Jarryd Bayless
5. Grizzlies - Anthony Randolph (just think about it, please, or fold the team)
6. Knicks - Russell Westbrook
7. Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Bucks - Joe Alexander
9. Bobcats - Brook Lopez
10. Nets - Kevin Love
11. Pacers - D.J. Augustin
12. Kings - Danilo Gallinari (surprised he drops, but he doesn't fit in NJ and they can play him next to Artest for now)
13. Blazers - DeAndre Jordan (they'll trade this to someone)
14. Warriors - Donte Greene
15. Suns - Brandon Rush (if he's gone, they may make some trades)
16. Sixers - Marreese Speights
17. Raptors - Robin Lopez
18. Wizards - Roy Hibbert
19. Cavs - Kostas Koufos
20. Nuggets - JaVale McGee
21. Nets - Darell Arthur
22. Magic - Courtney Lee
23. Jazz - Nicolas Batum
24. Sonics - Serge Ibaka
25. Rockets - Jason Thompson
26. Spurs - Mario Chalmers
27. Hornets - Chris Douglas-Roberts
28. Grizzlies - J.J. Hickson
29. Pistons - Alex Anjia
30. Celtics - Nathan Jawal
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Lakers vs. Celtics and the NBA Playoffs
Ahhhh, yes. I remember the first real basketball game I got for Genesis, Electronic Arts' first foyer into sports gaming (I think). They named it after the two classic franchises who had battled so much, even though the year it came out, the finals actually featured Detroit beating Portand. In their defense, that would've sounded so much lamer. Also, the Lakers and Celtics were seen as the great rivals, even though they only met 3 times in the 80's, although they did account for 8 titles and one of them was in the finals every year. In any case, EA wanted to make their debut by paying homage, and it's a nice touch for a maker whose games have really been a part of my life.
That's just one of the 50 million nostalgic stories that are circulating this week. It's my personal favorite aspect of that nostalgia, but I must admit that I'm kinda disappointed. I know I should be happy for the league and excited that ratings will be high and I won't be so mocked for loving basketball. I see everyone jumping on board and that's cool.... but I'm also a little dismayed by how things came to be.
I always hate to see LA and New York get all the attention and have things handed to them at times. Maybe now I should throw Boston in there as well. Yes, I'm still fuming a little over the Gasol trade. I don't hate the Lakers, and I don't hate Kobe (my MVP vote, even if it means nothing, was all for him), but I don't feel like they really deserved that. They should have suffered for the Shaq deal and the subsequent Kwame deal, but then it all magically turned better for them. Being out here, I here from fans that it was just a right of life; that they expected it, and that it was just another good thing to happen to them. Everyone else was furious. Remember this.
As for the Celtics, their trades weren't nearly as one-sided, and they gave up some young guys, but they're still a strange team. They're thrown together oddly, like the '97 Florida Marlins, as a mixture of vets looking for a title with a few key draftees who step up. I like all their guys, actually, but I don't feel like this is a real Celtics team. It could have been any team that had the right pieces and used them, but of course it was the team with the most titles in history. I'd feel better if it was some place tortured, like Cleveland or Indiana.... umm, maybe Philly... just saying.... but no, it's Boston. Again.
So I don't really have any rooting interest. I guess I would root for the Celtics because I like their individual guys, but they're getting awfully spoiled in Boston. I know the Celtics have been terrible for a while, unlike the Pats and Sawx, but they're still the most successful franchise in league history. I don't feel anything for the Lakers for that trade, and also for the fact that I know they're going to be good the next few years - even better, in fact, with Andrew Bynum coming back. I didn't think they could make it this far without him and they did, so what will they do next year?
Who do I like? I think I hate everyone. I'm from Philly, so that's okay.
What is my actual prediction? Let's break this down:
BOS DEF: The Celtics played defense when it counted. They can shut down big guys and point guards, but they struggle with wings. This might be why they didn't dominate early in the playoffs - Atlanta was all young wings, Cleveland survived only on LeBron. They just didn't match up well. Detroit needed a big series from Sheed and didn't get it, and Garnett helped that. Billups was hurt, but Rondo is also doing good. The only guy that really killed Boston was Rip Hamilton, but that was enough.
Well, the Lakers have the best wing in the league, and they don't offer much at point guard, so that doesn't really help the Celts at all. I'm interested to see how Boston matches up down low - Perkins and KG have been great on D, but if the Lakers keep their smaller lineups, one of them is going to have to face Odom or Radmanovic. I think Garnett is versatile enough to do that, but it pulls him away from the basket. Gasol can do that too with his midrange game, so maybe LA will stay out of the paint.
Interestingly, when these teams met this season, the Celts basically let Kobe open a lot outside and dared him to shoot every time. It worked, as he shot a lot, but didn't get others involved, they won both games. But the Spurs just tried to do the same thing, and it didn't work for them. If Ray Allen isn't making shots, I think they have to use Posey. Even if he is, they probably want to make Kobe work a little bit.
The Celts' D is good, but they're in for a tough battle because....
LA O: They're rolling. They can all shoot, and Kobe is dying to prove himself. I think Gasol is a little too outside for Perkins, and Odom can be all over the place. He's my choice as the biggest X factor in this series. He can take advantage of Pierce if he wants to. The Celts will try to be physical, but the Lakers have rolled over the Spurs and Jazz, who have bigger frontlines and usually knock people around.
BOS O / LA DEF: The Celts are good, but if Ray isn't hitting shots, they're in trouble. Garnett needs to step up big here, but it's not his tendency. Pierce can probably go off on anyone, but he'll be matched by Kobe. The Lakers are weak on both ends at the point, so Rondo could have some big games, but he's not a scorer. The Celts should watch when the subs are in. Jordan Farmar is struggling and they could get Eddie House some open looks.
The Lakers will try to minimize the size advantage by playing small and fast and just outscoring the Celtics. Kobe, determined more than ever, might have some good looks on Pierce, but probably he'll stick Allen and just watch his shots. The Celts might try to abuse them down low with depth, by bringing in P. J. Brown, Leon Powe and Big Baby, while the Lakers only have Turiaf on their bench. If Odom, Gasol, or Turiaf gets in foul trouble, that could help the Celts big time.
Bottom line, the Lakers have more weapons and match up well. This is a nice matchup in that one team relying strongly on offense will go against one relying on D. I just don't think Boston's strengths match with the Lakers' weaknesses. The Lakers scored a ton against the Spurs, who have been great defensively for a long time. The Celtics can't match that firepower if the games are high-scoring. If Ray catches fire and Garnett plays like he should, the Celtics could pull it out. I just don't see it.
Lakers in 6.
That's just one of the 50 million nostalgic stories that are circulating this week. It's my personal favorite aspect of that nostalgia, but I must admit that I'm kinda disappointed. I know I should be happy for the league and excited that ratings will be high and I won't be so mocked for loving basketball. I see everyone jumping on board and that's cool.... but I'm also a little dismayed by how things came to be.
I always hate to see LA and New York get all the attention and have things handed to them at times. Maybe now I should throw Boston in there as well. Yes, I'm still fuming a little over the Gasol trade. I don't hate the Lakers, and I don't hate Kobe (my MVP vote, even if it means nothing, was all for him), but I don't feel like they really deserved that. They should have suffered for the Shaq deal and the subsequent Kwame deal, but then it all magically turned better for them. Being out here, I here from fans that it was just a right of life; that they expected it, and that it was just another good thing to happen to them. Everyone else was furious. Remember this.
As for the Celtics, their trades weren't nearly as one-sided, and they gave up some young guys, but they're still a strange team. They're thrown together oddly, like the '97 Florida Marlins, as a mixture of vets looking for a title with a few key draftees who step up. I like all their guys, actually, but I don't feel like this is a real Celtics team. It could have been any team that had the right pieces and used them, but of course it was the team with the most titles in history. I'd feel better if it was some place tortured, like Cleveland or Indiana.... umm, maybe Philly... just saying.... but no, it's Boston. Again.
So I don't really have any rooting interest. I guess I would root for the Celtics because I like their individual guys, but they're getting awfully spoiled in Boston. I know the Celtics have been terrible for a while, unlike the Pats and Sawx, but they're still the most successful franchise in league history. I don't feel anything for the Lakers for that trade, and also for the fact that I know they're going to be good the next few years - even better, in fact, with Andrew Bynum coming back. I didn't think they could make it this far without him and they did, so what will they do next year?
Who do I like? I think I hate everyone. I'm from Philly, so that's okay.
What is my actual prediction? Let's break this down:
BOS DEF: The Celtics played defense when it counted. They can shut down big guys and point guards, but they struggle with wings. This might be why they didn't dominate early in the playoffs - Atlanta was all young wings, Cleveland survived only on LeBron. They just didn't match up well. Detroit needed a big series from Sheed and didn't get it, and Garnett helped that. Billups was hurt, but Rondo is also doing good. The only guy that really killed Boston was Rip Hamilton, but that was enough.
Well, the Lakers have the best wing in the league, and they don't offer much at point guard, so that doesn't really help the Celts at all. I'm interested to see how Boston matches up down low - Perkins and KG have been great on D, but if the Lakers keep their smaller lineups, one of them is going to have to face Odom or Radmanovic. I think Garnett is versatile enough to do that, but it pulls him away from the basket. Gasol can do that too with his midrange game, so maybe LA will stay out of the paint.
Interestingly, when these teams met this season, the Celts basically let Kobe open a lot outside and dared him to shoot every time. It worked, as he shot a lot, but didn't get others involved, they won both games. But the Spurs just tried to do the same thing, and it didn't work for them. If Ray Allen isn't making shots, I think they have to use Posey. Even if he is, they probably want to make Kobe work a little bit.
The Celts' D is good, but they're in for a tough battle because....
LA O: They're rolling. They can all shoot, and Kobe is dying to prove himself. I think Gasol is a little too outside for Perkins, and Odom can be all over the place. He's my choice as the biggest X factor in this series. He can take advantage of Pierce if he wants to. The Celts will try to be physical, but the Lakers have rolled over the Spurs and Jazz, who have bigger frontlines and usually knock people around.
BOS O / LA DEF: The Celts are good, but if Ray isn't hitting shots, they're in trouble. Garnett needs to step up big here, but it's not his tendency. Pierce can probably go off on anyone, but he'll be matched by Kobe. The Lakers are weak on both ends at the point, so Rondo could have some big games, but he's not a scorer. The Celts should watch when the subs are in. Jordan Farmar is struggling and they could get Eddie House some open looks.
The Lakers will try to minimize the size advantage by playing small and fast and just outscoring the Celtics. Kobe, determined more than ever, might have some good looks on Pierce, but probably he'll stick Allen and just watch his shots. The Celts might try to abuse them down low with depth, by bringing in P. J. Brown, Leon Powe and Big Baby, while the Lakers only have Turiaf on their bench. If Odom, Gasol, or Turiaf gets in foul trouble, that could help the Celts big time.
Bottom line, the Lakers have more weapons and match up well. This is a nice matchup in that one team relying strongly on offense will go against one relying on D. I just don't think Boston's strengths match with the Lakers' weaknesses. The Lakers scored a ton against the Spurs, who have been great defensively for a long time. The Celtics can't match that firepower if the games are high-scoring. If Ray catches fire and Garnett plays like he should, the Celtics could pull it out. I just don't see it.
Lakers in 6.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
the great Garnett gangbuster
Well, THIS is a change....
After all the Garnett deals that were discussed earlier, this is the one that goes through? I won't make any McHale-is-still-secretly-part-of-the-Celtics jokes. That's too easy. I'm just going to address the good and bad sides of this deal:
THE GOOD FOR BOSTON, BAD FOR MINNESOTA
- Boston has three guys who have been all stars and now would like nothing more than to win.
- I'm not worried about people needing shots. Garnett had his best year when he could share the ball with Sprewell and Cassell. He doesn't have to be lead scorer. This is Pierce's team offensively, and I know Allen and KG will be fine not having to carry them. They need a break from that.
- I'm also not worried about KG wearing down so soon. He's still got time. Plus, he won't have to carry the offense anymore, again, and he gets to play in the East. That will make his stress level go WAY down.
- Compared to everyone in the East, they look pretty good now, eh? They have one of the best big men in the game when all the others are out West. The only teams that have bigs who can match up with KG are Detroit, Toronto, and Orlando, and those last two don't have the supporting casts.
- Yes, I know Jefferson might eventually be a franchise big man, but you already know KG is. And he's much better defensively.
- Celtics fans (and NBA fans in general) have to be happy that the Celtics went all out to get better, instead of being cheap and waiting for young guys to develop.
- They managed to get KG without giving up that big draft pick. How crazy is that?
- They weren't sold on any of the young guys they gave up besides Jefferson.
- One of the draft picks the Celtics gave up actually belonged to Minnesota in the first place, so it's not really a loss for them.
- McHale managed to get young guys, but he didn't give up any of the bad contracts they have. Other trade scenarios I mapped out for them had them cutting payroll somehow. Now they still need to wait a few years to get these guys off their payroll. I know the cap hindered them, but my guess is that Boston would have taken a few of these guys for some depth. They could have looked for other teams to get involved.
- Jefferson has to replace the only great player in franchise history, and this team is going to be bad right away.
-Boston managed to get rid of Telfair and Ratliff for something positive.
- Why did the Wolves pick up Juwon Howard if they were serious about moving KG? Doesn't seem like a great move now. He's another old guy they have to pay for a few years.
- Along with that, would they have drafted Corey Brewer if they knew KG would be gone? Maybe they would have sprung for someone lower rated but with more potential. I don't know who... Brandan Wright? Meh, I guess Brewer was still the best available. I just think he's worth more on a contender.
- If I found out that they could have had Stoudemire straight up, I would seriously punch them in the face. But I think Phoenix would nix theat deal first.
- I was going to put the Wolves having a high draft pick next year in their good list, but is it going to the Clippers? This could be very good or bad for them, because they will absolutely be picking in the top five next year.
THE GOOD FOR MINNESOTA, BAD FOR BOSTON
- Boston now has no depth. I don't know what the rules are for using mid level trade exceptions, but I think with the cap space gone, they'll have a hard time picking up people. They really could use a veteran backup at the point and at center.
- Boston's three wing players they rely on (Tony Al, Ray Al, Pierce) all missed a huge chunk of last season with injuries.
- Rajon Rondo has to be the man now. This isn't all terrible, since Boston needed to straighten up the point situation, but without Delonte West or Telfair, he's got to be it.
- Kendrick Perkins is the only center Boston has, and besides him, the only big men they can sub are Leon Powe, Big Baby Davis, and Brian Scalabrine. Yikes.
- To go along with that, my main complaint about this trade on both sides is including Ryan Gomes. He's a nice backup for Boston, but without him, they have no depth down low. Perkins can get into foul trouble easily and then there's no one with any experience left. Meanwhile, he doesn't help Minnesota much because they have Howard and Craig Smith already, and they're all decent guys who basically do the same thing. He's not going to ever be a star for them; Jefferson and Green have a chance to do something. Boston isn't giving him up for salary reasons either.
So why put him in there? Minnesota can take Big Baby, who at least might develop into something if he trains right, or Powe, or more draft picks. Boston can keep a guy who gives them important minutes. This is the part I don't get.
- Minnesota needed a true point, and if Telfair lives up to anything, he can help.
- Same deal with Green. He and Brewer have the tools, but can they figure it out? If so, they have a nice wing combo.
FOR THE REST OF THE LEAGUE.....
- Conspiracy theorists are harping that Stern got this deal done because it helps an eastern team with a passionate fan base get better. Also, it detracts attention from the scandal. Nah. I think that it happened for these reasons: Phoenix was too cheap and/or didn't want to give up Stoudemire; the Lakers didn't have a good enough package; and Chicago is content to stay with the team they have (hence them not even biting anymore on Pau Gasol, who'd cost less). Boston was the only team left able to give Minnesota something valuable for their star.
Regardless, it does make the Celtics a lot better and the East better as well. Now, the Celtics will be on TV much more. Yes, Stern has to be happy about it. Yes, it's shady McHale gave up so easily.
But he's never been sharp, has he?
- This puts even more pressure on the Lakers to make a deal. Without KG in the mix, they now have even more desperation to go after Jermaine O'Neal, plus they have to hear about their old rivals for a while.
Here's an interesting problem the Lakers face: I've been saying that they need to find a third team that would be interested in Lamar Odom, because the Pacers sure aren't. One of those teams was Boston, potentially. Now they're out, obviously, and I think New York is going to stay where they are or get Artest. So that leaves Miami, Jersey, and Philly, but the Sixers and Heat don't have enough assets (other than their main guys they'll never give up) to get it done. So the main trade partner is Jersey.
Ironically, however, Jersey and Indiana have already been discussing a deal amongst themselves for O'Neal. Indiana wanted Nenad Kristic, Richard Jefferson, and maybe Marcus Williams from the Nets. Jersey said no. So now the Lakers not only have to convince Indiana that they can offer a good package, but maybe convince Jersey too that a three-way is the best way to go. I already traced out a bunch of three-way trades with these guys earlier on here. If Indiana can get Kristic and Jefferson from Jersey straight up for O'Neal, doesn't that trump anything the Lakers can do? Can the Lakers possibly convince the Nets to take Odom instead, trade Jefferson to Indiana, and get Indiana to accept Bynum, Kwame (for the contract), and Crittendon? Let's see this again:
Indiana Pacers
Incoming Players
Andrew Bynum
Salary: $2,172,000 Years Remaining: 1
Jason Collins
Salary: $6,100,000 Years Remaining: 2
Richard Jefferson
Salary: $12,200,000 Years Remaining: 4
Kwame Brown
Salary: $9,075,000 Years Remaining: 1
Bernard Robinson
Salary: $1,080,000 Years Remaining: 1
(Javaris Crittendon)
(once he clears restrictions)
Outgoing Players: Jermaine O'Neal, Mike Dunleavy
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Brian Cook
Salary: $3,500,000 Years Remaining: 2
Mike Dunleavy
Salary: $8,219,008 Years Remaining: 4
Lamar Odom
Salary: $13,248,596 Years Remaining: 2
Maurice Evans
Salary: $1,740,000 Years Remaining: 1
Outgoing Players: Jason Collins, Antoine Wright, Richard Jefferson, Bostjan Nachbar, Bernard Robinson
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Jermaine O'Neal
Salary: $19,728,000 Years Remaining: 2
Antoine Wright
Salary: $1,680,600 Years Remaining: 1
Bostjan Nachbar
Salary: $2,500,000 Years Remaining: 1
Outgoing Players: Andrew Bynum, Brian Cook, Kwame Brown, Lamar Odom, Maurice Evans (also Javaris Crittendon, once available)
Hey, this trade doesn't look so bad now. All three teams do something positive. Indiana gets Bynum, Jefferson, and Crittendon, while getting major cap relief. I think they've been really ruing the midseason trade with Golden State. In earlier trade scenarios, I had them trying to get rid of Dunleavy, but failing. Now, with Jersey picking up big men, they can do more to swing that. Jersey gets rid of Jefferson, but they keep Kristic, get Odom, and then majorly improve their bench. Even if Odom-Kidd-Carter is less of a trioka than Jefferson-Kidd-Carter, they still have Kristic and finally have some depth for once. That's not bad.
And the Lakers get Kobe a real post guy. DO it, Kupchak.
The question will be if Indiana thinks they can still get Kristic and Jefferson from Jersey straight up. That's better than the Lakers' offer.
- Yes, it changes the balance of power in the East for now. Detroit is getting younger, but that may not make them any better right now. They're mostly the same as last year. Cleveland hasn't changed much (for now). Chicago was my pick to break through next year, but like Detroit, they're going with quantity over quality. Miami is the only other team that could be considered a true contender, but they need Shaq to get back, and he hasn't looked motivated in a long, long time. Jersey? Maybe. Pending on moves.
Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, and New York all got better, but they aren't contenders.
This team, assuming a few guys come in cheap, can win 50 games, which puts it near the top.
- Finally, some of the forwards out West can breathe a little easier. And look at all star selections. With Garnett, Lewis and almost-been-theres Zach Randolph and (likely) Odom gone, you can finally get in the midseason showcase.
- One last thing: I know we'll probably never get the real story on this, but we'll always wonder how close Phoenix got, or how close they both got with Atlanta, or if the Lakers ever really had a chance. Did someone really turn this down? On either side? With respect to Stoudemire as well?
Maybe those fans don't want to know....
After all the Garnett deals that were discussed earlier, this is the one that goes through? I won't make any McHale-is-still-secretly-part-of-the-Celtics jokes. That's too easy. I'm just going to address the good and bad sides of this deal:
THE GOOD FOR BOSTON, BAD FOR MINNESOTA
- Boston has three guys who have been all stars and now would like nothing more than to win.
- I'm not worried about people needing shots. Garnett had his best year when he could share the ball with Sprewell and Cassell. He doesn't have to be lead scorer. This is Pierce's team offensively, and I know Allen and KG will be fine not having to carry them. They need a break from that.
- I'm also not worried about KG wearing down so soon. He's still got time. Plus, he won't have to carry the offense anymore, again, and he gets to play in the East. That will make his stress level go WAY down.
- Compared to everyone in the East, they look pretty good now, eh? They have one of the best big men in the game when all the others are out West. The only teams that have bigs who can match up with KG are Detroit, Toronto, and Orlando, and those last two don't have the supporting casts.
- Yes, I know Jefferson might eventually be a franchise big man, but you already know KG is. And he's much better defensively.
- Celtics fans (and NBA fans in general) have to be happy that the Celtics went all out to get better, instead of being cheap and waiting for young guys to develop.
- They managed to get KG without giving up that big draft pick. How crazy is that?
- They weren't sold on any of the young guys they gave up besides Jefferson.
- One of the draft picks the Celtics gave up actually belonged to Minnesota in the first place, so it's not really a loss for them.
- McHale managed to get young guys, but he didn't give up any of the bad contracts they have. Other trade scenarios I mapped out for them had them cutting payroll somehow. Now they still need to wait a few years to get these guys off their payroll. I know the cap hindered them, but my guess is that Boston would have taken a few of these guys for some depth. They could have looked for other teams to get involved.
- Jefferson has to replace the only great player in franchise history, and this team is going to be bad right away.
-Boston managed to get rid of Telfair and Ratliff for something positive.
- Why did the Wolves pick up Juwon Howard if they were serious about moving KG? Doesn't seem like a great move now. He's another old guy they have to pay for a few years.
- Along with that, would they have drafted Corey Brewer if they knew KG would be gone? Maybe they would have sprung for someone lower rated but with more potential. I don't know who... Brandan Wright? Meh, I guess Brewer was still the best available. I just think he's worth more on a contender.
- If I found out that they could have had Stoudemire straight up, I would seriously punch them in the face. But I think Phoenix would nix theat deal first.
- I was going to put the Wolves having a high draft pick next year in their good list, but is it going to the Clippers? This could be very good or bad for them, because they will absolutely be picking in the top five next year.
THE GOOD FOR MINNESOTA, BAD FOR BOSTON
- Boston now has no depth. I don't know what the rules are for using mid level trade exceptions, but I think with the cap space gone, they'll have a hard time picking up people. They really could use a veteran backup at the point and at center.
- Boston's three wing players they rely on (Tony Al, Ray Al, Pierce) all missed a huge chunk of last season with injuries.
- Rajon Rondo has to be the man now. This isn't all terrible, since Boston needed to straighten up the point situation, but without Delonte West or Telfair, he's got to be it.
- Kendrick Perkins is the only center Boston has, and besides him, the only big men they can sub are Leon Powe, Big Baby Davis, and Brian Scalabrine. Yikes.
- To go along with that, my main complaint about this trade on both sides is including Ryan Gomes. He's a nice backup for Boston, but without him, they have no depth down low. Perkins can get into foul trouble easily and then there's no one with any experience left. Meanwhile, he doesn't help Minnesota much because they have Howard and Craig Smith already, and they're all decent guys who basically do the same thing. He's not going to ever be a star for them; Jefferson and Green have a chance to do something. Boston isn't giving him up for salary reasons either.
So why put him in there? Minnesota can take Big Baby, who at least might develop into something if he trains right, or Powe, or more draft picks. Boston can keep a guy who gives them important minutes. This is the part I don't get.
- Minnesota needed a true point, and if Telfair lives up to anything, he can help.
- Same deal with Green. He and Brewer have the tools, but can they figure it out? If so, they have a nice wing combo.
FINAL ANALYSIS (cue Richard Gere looking solemn) :
Boston wins big time. This trade puts them amongst the best teams in the East. You can complain about their depth, but only a few teams in that conference have anyone close to KG, and they don't have the supporting cast. This threesome is worth 50 wins, right? It's not much worse than KG, Spree, and Cassell in 2004. Those guys won 58 in a loaded conference. They can challenge for the conference title. League, not so much.
Minnesota managed to get one future star and some nice pieces for Garnett, but they're going to be bad for a while. At least the foundation is there, plus the next few high picks they will surely get. If McHale steps aside, after loading up his old team, well, it wouldn't be so bad.
I have a strange feeling that somewhere down the line, once the cap is set, Boston will make a "thank you" move to Minnesota. I don't know if they can do this with the cap, and they definitely can't do it right now, but I think they might actually take some of those guys with contract problems that Minnesota has. They need depth. They'd bring back Mark Blount as a backup if they could fit him under the cap. They'd probably take Marko Jaric or Trenton Hassell too. Once the season starts, I think they will find a way to do this to get depth and help McHale clear some cap space. Remember, he's made a bunch of deals with Boston in the past few years. No coincidence. He and Ainge will keep talking and finding ways to help each other out. I think Ainge kinda owes it to him for this deal.....
FOR THE REST OF THE LEAGUE.....
- Conspiracy theorists are harping that Stern got this deal done because it helps an eastern team with a passionate fan base get better. Also, it detracts attention from the scandal. Nah. I think that it happened for these reasons: Phoenix was too cheap and/or didn't want to give up Stoudemire; the Lakers didn't have a good enough package; and Chicago is content to stay with the team they have (hence them not even biting anymore on Pau Gasol, who'd cost less). Boston was the only team left able to give Minnesota something valuable for their star.
Regardless, it does make the Celtics a lot better and the East better as well. Now, the Celtics will be on TV much more. Yes, Stern has to be happy about it. Yes, it's shady McHale gave up so easily.
But he's never been sharp, has he?
- This puts even more pressure on the Lakers to make a deal. Without KG in the mix, they now have even more desperation to go after Jermaine O'Neal, plus they have to hear about their old rivals for a while.
Here's an interesting problem the Lakers face: I've been saying that they need to find a third team that would be interested in Lamar Odom, because the Pacers sure aren't. One of those teams was Boston, potentially. Now they're out, obviously, and I think New York is going to stay where they are or get Artest. So that leaves Miami, Jersey, and Philly, but the Sixers and Heat don't have enough assets (other than their main guys they'll never give up) to get it done. So the main trade partner is Jersey.
Ironically, however, Jersey and Indiana have already been discussing a deal amongst themselves for O'Neal. Indiana wanted Nenad Kristic, Richard Jefferson, and maybe Marcus Williams from the Nets. Jersey said no. So now the Lakers not only have to convince Indiana that they can offer a good package, but maybe convince Jersey too that a three-way is the best way to go. I already traced out a bunch of three-way trades with these guys earlier on here. If Indiana can get Kristic and Jefferson from Jersey straight up for O'Neal, doesn't that trump anything the Lakers can do? Can the Lakers possibly convince the Nets to take Odom instead, trade Jefferson to Indiana, and get Indiana to accept Bynum, Kwame (for the contract), and Crittendon? Let's see this again:
Indiana Pacers
Incoming Players
Andrew Bynum
Salary: $2,172,000 Years Remaining: 1
Jason Collins
Salary: $6,100,000 Years Remaining: 2
Richard Jefferson
Salary: $12,200,000 Years Remaining: 4
Kwame Brown
Salary: $9,075,000 Years Remaining: 1
Bernard Robinson
Salary: $1,080,000 Years Remaining: 1
(Javaris Crittendon)
(once he clears restrictions)
Outgoing Players: Jermaine O'Neal, Mike Dunleavy
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Brian Cook
Salary: $3,500,000 Years Remaining: 2
Mike Dunleavy
Salary: $8,219,008 Years Remaining: 4
Lamar Odom
Salary: $13,248,596 Years Remaining: 2
Maurice Evans
Salary: $1,740,000 Years Remaining: 1
Outgoing Players: Jason Collins, Antoine Wright, Richard Jefferson, Bostjan Nachbar, Bernard Robinson
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Jermaine O'Neal
Salary: $19,728,000 Years Remaining: 2
Antoine Wright
Salary: $1,680,600 Years Remaining: 1
Bostjan Nachbar
Salary: $2,500,000 Years Remaining: 1
Outgoing Players: Andrew Bynum, Brian Cook, Kwame Brown, Lamar Odom, Maurice Evans (also Javaris Crittendon, once available)
Hey, this trade doesn't look so bad now. All three teams do something positive. Indiana gets Bynum, Jefferson, and Crittendon, while getting major cap relief. I think they've been really ruing the midseason trade with Golden State. In earlier trade scenarios, I had them trying to get rid of Dunleavy, but failing. Now, with Jersey picking up big men, they can do more to swing that. Jersey gets rid of Jefferson, but they keep Kristic, get Odom, and then majorly improve their bench. Even if Odom-Kidd-Carter is less of a trioka than Jefferson-Kidd-Carter, they still have Kristic and finally have some depth for once. That's not bad.
And the Lakers get Kobe a real post guy. DO it, Kupchak.
The question will be if Indiana thinks they can still get Kristic and Jefferson from Jersey straight up. That's better than the Lakers' offer.
- Yes, it changes the balance of power in the East for now. Detroit is getting younger, but that may not make them any better right now. They're mostly the same as last year. Cleveland hasn't changed much (for now). Chicago was my pick to break through next year, but like Detroit, they're going with quantity over quality. Miami is the only other team that could be considered a true contender, but they need Shaq to get back, and he hasn't looked motivated in a long, long time. Jersey? Maybe. Pending on moves.
Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, and New York all got better, but they aren't contenders.
This team, assuming a few guys come in cheap, can win 50 games, which puts it near the top.
- Finally, some of the forwards out West can breathe a little easier. And look at all star selections. With Garnett, Lewis and almost-been-theres Zach Randolph and (likely) Odom gone, you can finally get in the midseason showcase.
- One last thing: I know we'll probably never get the real story on this, but we'll always wonder how close Phoenix got, or how close they both got with Atlanta, or if the Lakers ever really had a chance. Did someone really turn this down? On either side? With respect to Stoudemire as well?
Maybe those fans don't want to know....
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