What a glorious day it is. The annual draft is a big festival in my house and in some corners of the sports world. This year, though, it's a little unpredictable. And weak. I shouldn't be as excited because teams are selling picks and none of these guys are likely going to be stars, save for a few. But I am excited, as always, because this means a new crop of young ballers coming in and it's fascinating to see where people go.
I actually think this year's draft is useful for people who realize that it sucks. If that doesn't make sense, well, maybe I should say that it works if you go in with lowered expectations. Normally, you might expect to find a starter or a major contributor up until the midway point. Not this year. If you need a little bench help, however, and a lot of teams do, it's an effective place to find people. Especially point guards. Teams that were hoping to get the big prize (Blake Griffin) are just going to have to face the fact that they're not getting an impact player. They need to look at weak spots and depth issues, as opposed to major holes.
I usually go with my own mock of what will happen and my opinion on what should happen. I have no idea, so I'm just giving out advice this year. Yeah, I didn't follow college ball as closely as I have, but the elite group is small and I'm pretty sure I've seen them in action.
Here goes:
1. Clips - They will take Griffin and they should, although, if the Not Sonics wanted to offer Durant, I think that works out for both teams, pending on what the details are. If he's not going to stay, it makes sense for the Okies to get a local kid who will. And it solves what positions people play. But the easier thing to do for the Clippers is just to take Griffin and do anything they can to get Zach Randolph out of town. Or just pull a Steve Francis and cut him.
2. Grizzlebees - They are depressed because Griffin could have been the last piece to a nice young lineup and there are no big men who even come close after him. Oh well - they don't deserve it. Not after giving up on a rare franchise big guy for nothing when he was still young. They need to realize that no one here can save them, so they should just trade down and improve their bench. If they go down with Minnesota, they can pick up Jordan Hill, who will be a nice energy guy to use with Gasol and Arthur. They can also pick up backups on the wing and point with later selections. Haseem Thabeet would be a nice tandem with Gasol, but he doesn't add any offense and they still have a hole at PF. They should just go for depth now and hope that next year, they can get a decent big man.
3. Not Sonics - They could go in many directions, and none of them are bad. They could take Rubio if they aren't sure Westbrook is a real point guard. They can take Curry and maybe split it up. They can take Harden, which is easy enough. Or they could take Thabeet if he's available. I like Thabeet here because they don't have a true center or shot blocker; they have a lot of forwards. Harden would be just fine, but they might be able to find a decent shooter in free agency. I have a feeling that Rubio will be gone, or at least should be... if not, they could trade down with Minnesota too and get some more picks and still get a decent guard.
4. Kings - Rough times for Sacto. The Kings really need a point guard and someone who can revive interest and they're just on the outside of getting Rubio. They don't really have anything to trade up for, but they can hope he falls. I don't think he will. The Wolves are desperate now and have more assets to move ahead. That leaves them with the next few guys: Flynn, Evans, Curry. I don't know if Evans or Curry will be real point guards; I think they'll be good players but this team needs a true point. I like Flynn but this may be a little high. They are in a rough spot. I'd say Flynn with a gulp.
5 & 6. Wolves - It was a little weird for them to pick up two consecutive picks in a crummy draft, but they're not done. They can probably convince Memphis or OKC to trade so they can get Rubio. Originally, I thought they would target Thabeet to platoon with Love and to let him come off the bench, but they are now desperate for guards. Really desperate. If they can keep # 6 and get Rubio at 2 or 3, they'll be in good shape. The actual 5th pick then depends on the trading partner: OKC would take Harden or Curry, while Memphis would likely spring for Hill. That would leave the Wolves to pick up a two guard at # 6. The good news is that one of Curry, Harden, or Evans has to be available in this scenario. I like Harden the best out of those guys, then Curry, then Evans.
Here is my advised top 6: Griffin, Rubio (to MIN), Thabeet, Flynn, Hill (to MEM), Harden.
7. Warriors - It seemed like they were taking a point, and that's smart. Even though it looks like they are trading Crawford for Law and Claxton now, those guys haven't done much. They will likely choose amongst whomever is left between Flynn, Evans, Curry, and Jennings. I like Flynn, although he could be gone. I think this is a decent place for Evans - he's not really a point, but neither is Monta Ellis, so maybe it will work. Curry might be too much like Ellis. Jennings is a strong possibility and I would see that. I don't think they'll go for a big guy unless he's an outside shooter type, and there aren't any here.
8. Knicks - I have a feeling that some way, they're going to steal Curry and piss everyone off. In my advised projections, he's still here. This is a great fit for him - he doesn't have to worry about defense, they can play him at the two and work him in, and D'Antoni will make sure he gets shots. I just think it happens. If he's gone, they may look at Flynn, Jennings, Holiday, or Teague. I don't know if they will be as happy with any of those guys besides Flynn. Some are saying they like Hill, but is he that different than David Lee?
9. Raptors - They needed wings before they traded Kapono, and they really need them now. I actually think they'll try to get Marion to come back at a reduced rate if no one offers him much and can do it, but even then, they need more depth. Evans would be nice if he was here, but I doubt it. They will likely choose between DeRozan and Clark, maybe Henderson. DeRozan has some skills and maybe the most potential. He's a decent choice here. They don't have any two guards, so he can get time right away.
10. Bucks - I know Simmons laid out the awful history of the Clippers and their penchant for drafting too many forwards. Well, I'd like to present a much smaller history of the Bucks, with special attention paid to point guards. Consider how few teams have been managed as poorly over the past decade:
2003: Having just traded Ray Allen for Gary Payton, the Bucks decide to let Payton walk, giving them... not much. They also decide to let Sam Cassell go for not much, and he helps Minnesota have its best season ever. After giving up on two all-star point guards, they have to draft T.J. Ford.
2004: Ford turns out to be decent, leading the Bucks to a surprise playoff appearance.
2005: Ford also turns out to be injury prone, as he misses most of the season. The Bucks miss the playoffs, but they win the lottery. Despite his injury woes, the Bucks remain committed to Ford as their leader and pass on Chris Paul and Deron Williams with their pick.
2006: Even though Ford comes back and they make the playoffs again, they suspend their commitment to him JUST A YEAR AFTER PASSING UP CHRIS PAUL TO KEEP FORD when they trade him to Toronto for Charlie Villanueva. They like how backup Mo Williams handles himself, even though he's more of a scorer.
2007: The Bucks miss the playoffs by a wide margin. Despite this turn, they decide to re-sign Mo Williams to a sizable contract, even though Miami really wants him to complement Wade. They also re-sign Charlie Bell when Miami tries to get him, even though he doesn't start. Then the Bucks draft Yi Jianlian, and for all the things you've heard about him and/or can make fun of him for, I just want to focus on this: he plays the same style and position as Villanueva. They need a small forward, but they pass on Julian Wright, Al Thornton, Thad Young, and others to get Yi.
2008: The Bucks still suck, but they finally seem to realize that Yi doesn't fit, several months after I (and many people) have been complaining about it. They make a decent trade to get Richard Jefferson from New Jersey for Yi and Bobby Simmons' horrible contract. I did mention his horrible contract, right? No? How about Dan Gadzuric? No? Silly me. I got so caught up in the point guard revolving door, I must've forgot.
So, despite picking up Jefferson, the Bucks still draft a small forward in Joe Alexander. They could have used a bruising big guy to take pressure off of soft bigs Villanueva and Bogut, but whatever. It's not the worst move they've made.
Finally, several months after signing him to a big contract and apparently committing to him as their point guard of the future, the Bucks dump Mo Williams for basically nothing. Actually, nothing would be the ideal. They take back Luke Ridnour's salary, even though the trade is supposed to free up time for late steal Ramon Sessions.
2009: The Bucks start the season by giving Ridnour time ahead of Sessions. Strange. They still lose.
The Bucks finish the season by trading Jefferson for salary dumps. They claim that they need the money to keep Villanueva and/or Sessions. So yes, they used up that 2007 # 6 pick for NOTHING, essentially. And they hurt their chances for keeping Sessions by taking on Ridnour and playing him, even though they didn't need him in that Mo trade, and didn't pick up anything in that trade, despite them having the only important player in that trade. WHY DIDN'T THEY PICK UP AN EXPIRING CONTRACT OR A YOUNG PLAYER OR JUST NEVER FREAKING RESIGN MO WILLIAMS IN THE FIRST PLACE???
This team has been going in a strange cycle of suck and it hasn't stopped. Do they even have any fans left? If so, why???
I'm guessing they will take another point guard this year. They have to, just to keep this comedy of errors going. Even if they think that they can bring Sessions back now (which was the decent move all along), they'd like to be safe. They can never settle. I would advise them to stop existing altogether, but I suppose the answer here is taking Flynn, Jennings, Holiday, or Teague, in that order. They like Teague, I hear. Of course they do.
11. Nets - They really need a wing. They had a laughable trio of washups at the 3 last year, presumably because they are holding it open for LeBron. Well, it might help to get someone anyway, and they can always trade or move Vince. I like Earl Clark, but Gerald Henderson is fine here too. If DeRozan slips this far, he'd be a solid pick.
12. Bobcats - They need a two guard, preferably one who can shoot. Henderson seems like an easy choice. DeRozan again, if he slips, is good. I hear they like Terrence Williams, but he's a little unpredictable.
13. Pacers - They need a power forward who can play and score inside, and there aren't many this year. James Johnson is more of a tweener, and this is too high for Hansbrough (and please, Larry Legend, they have enough white guys). DeJuan Blair would be an easy pick if they weren't scared about injury problems, but honestly, who else can they go with? He's what they need. I hear they like point guards, but they already have a bunch.
14. Suns - They just traded Shaq and have been linked to a lot of guys at this spot. They haven't had a real backup for Nash these past few years and it's hurting him. He might be gone soon, too. This is the draft to get young points, so why won't they? They have wings and a few bigs, and they could play small. It depends on who is still around. I think Flynn will be gone. Jennings could be a bust but has talent. Holiday is raw but has potential. Maynor is solid all around but unspectacular. Teague is nice but maybe not a real point. Lawson is solid but probably more of a backup. I'd say Jennings if he's there, then Holiday, then Maynor.
That concludes a weird lottery....
15. Pistons - They haven't had a true 7 footer since... well, Darko, but an effective true center? Years ago. They are rebuilding, and even though I think they will do the most in free agency and try to win soon, they should think about B.J. Mullens. They have undersized forwards and they can pick up more of those, but he could develop if they use him right.
16. Bulls - They could use a big man who can score, although that's rare in this draft. I like James Johnson here - he's a tweener, but he would only need to come off the bench and he can shoot. If Blair slips this far, they ought to snatch him up.
17. Sixers - First of all, I would like to say thank you to the hometowners for bringing back the old logo and the red, white, and blue color scheme. I always thought of it as the real logo. A team in Philly representing something patriotic really should stick with our national colors, right? The unis ever since they got rid of Barkley have been a mess.
I'm guessing that the Kapono trade means that they are not going for shooters. They could use a point, especially if Andre Miller leaves, and for the future. I like Maynor and Lawson and would be happy with either. Jennings if he slips, and Teague are possibilities.
18. Wolves - I'm expecting this pick to be traded. Memphis might go for Budinger or another wing here. OKC would go for whatever they didn't get earlier - a big guy or a shooter.
19. Hawks - Even though they picked up Crawford, they may want a guard. I don't know if they bring Bibby back, plus there aren't any big guys left here who can help them. Teague is a nice pick because he can shoot and they need that. Lawson and Maynor would be fine.
20. Jazz - Please, please don't pick Hansbrough. You have enough white stiffs in your history. Even if Boozer leaves, they can use Millsap and Kirilenko at the four with better results. I'm thinking a three would help better - Kirilenko and Korver do well off the bench or at other positions, Harpring is getting old, and that's the spot they need. A good shooter like Budinger or Daye would work. Daye could be like a young Rashard Lewis for them.
21. Hornets - They need big man depth, but that's about gone at this point. Instead, they might as well just get a backup point because there won't be much else left. They did well when CP had another point guard who could shoot with him. Teague and Lawson would be decent picks here.
22. Blazers - They traded up for two spots. Why? I don't know. They like to move. I think this is where Hansbrough should go, and it fits him well. He can board and bring energy off the bench to relieve Aldridge. They don't want more projects, and he's ready to play.
23. Kings - They will certainly use their first pick on a point, so here is a chance to get some big man depth. Too bad it's almost gone. They can take a crack at Hansbrough if he's available, but I doubt it. They might have to swing for Taj Gibson or Jeff Pendergraph.
24. Mavericks - They would like a big guy, too, but there won't be much to be had here. No, they can go to free agency for that. I think they should consider a point to serve under Kidd, because Barea and Terry are more shooters. If Terrence Williams slips this far, it would be great. He could learn under Kidd and not have so much pressure. Same for Holiday. Maynor or Lawson would be fine, but I think all of these guys could be gone. That might leave them with Nick Calathes, who is going to Greece but could be a nice prospect down the road. Otherwise, they could take another wing for depth. Sam Young, Derrick Brown, Ellington could fit.
25. Not Sonics - see 18. They could get Ellington here and that might solve some shooting issues. Or they could take another foreign guy to add to their stable.
26. Bulls - With their second pick, the Bulls can do more for their depth. I'm interested to see what they do over the summer, and they might have to prepare for that now. If they try to keep Gordon, they they probably have to move Hinrich. A backup point would be nice here then. If they don't keep Gordon, a backup wing like Ellington would fit. I didn't expect them to keep Gordon at the beginning of the season and they can really just give his minutes to Hinrich and Salmons. But then what about Deng? Is he okay? A lot of questions here. They should take a guard to be safe.
27. Grizz - Again, they need depth. Any wings or points left over would be a nice break for them. Young, Brown, Summers are all decent here. If the major points are gone, maybe they consider Darren Collison or Patrick Mills.
28. Wolves - This pick might be traded or not. The Wolves would probably go for a wing if they keep it. Young is good. DaJuan Summers is a poss, as is Omri Cassipi, or Ellington for some depth.
29. Lakers - It sounds like they're trading this. I would personally take a shot at Toney Douglas. He's not a point guard but they don't need him to be, and he was a good scorer/shooter.
30. Cavs - They made the splash with Shaq but the Orlando series proved they have many holes. They could use a big man who can shoot from outside, or maybe another small forward who can do that and defend to play next to LeBron. There isn't anyone special left here, but they might take a look at some of these wings.
Well, that's it. I have no idea if they will think like me or not. Probably not, I am always horrendously confused... and that's what makes this day so great.
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
draft reactions
I was waiting a few days after the draft to give out my reaction, because I wasn't sure who was going where. Already, though, the free agency period is heating up. Baron Davis opted out of his contract, which surprised everyone, and hinted at the Clippers as a possibility. Now he might even have a deal in place? Argggh. I hate you, Warriors. You're ruining my summer.
See, my hope this summer was that the Clips would go cheap (just like the old days!), try to rebuild around theri young guys, let Magette and Brand go, and then Brand wouldn't have any choice but to look at the Sixers. Brand has been saying that he wants to stay, but he did opt out, so he might have been persuaded if they started dumping people. But now, if Davis comes, he'll almost certainly stay, and the Sixers will have to look elsewhere.
(It should be noted that they are getting together in inspiration of something like the Celtics, but they are doing it in the west. That's going to be tougher. It's also another reason I thought Brand would consider Philly. I mean, the Clippers have been spending more recently, but I didn't think they would try to jump back in the race with such a tough conference. I thought they would say f--- it, let their stars go, and slowly rebuild again. After wishing good vibes for the Clips fo so long, I should be elated that Dunleavy has finally convinced Sterling to spend some cash, but why now?)
This has already created new movement. Sources now report that the Sixers are looking at Josh Smith. Meh.... while I like him, and I think he's going to be a force, he's just way too much like the other guys they have. They can run with him, Thad, and Iggy, but that's about it. They need shooting, preferrably from a big man spot. That's why I was so keen on Brand, and I'm sure that's why they drafted Speights. Smith is a great player, but he's redundant in Philly. He's better off in Atlanta, where fans like him, he has a home base, and he's part of a rising group. Yes, they have a lot of other people to sign eventually, but he should be a priority. They can always let Childress and Marvin Williams go, but they need to keep him.
Now Golden State has a ton of space, though who knows if they'll use it. I don't entirely blame them for taking a conservative approach, when they just spent a lot and still missed the playoffs. Davis has a history of injury problems, and even though he was a catalyst for them, he's aging and they have some young guys coming up. Besides, the west just went from strong to ridiculous. Most importantly, they can say, they never gave up that much in the first place to get him. They had a good run, and while everyone in the bay is prboably very disappointed, at least they ended the playoff drought with a bang. Still.... this is not the way to entice maybe the most passionate fans in the league.
And you still ruined my plans. Damn you, Chris Mullin.
Anyway, onto draft thoughts...
ATLANTA - no picks. Like I said, I would re-sign Smith in a second. He, Horford, and Johnson deserve the big bucks. Everyone else is movable.
BOSTON - feeling great about their chemistry, they took some wild chances at wings J. R. Giddens and Bill Walker. I forgot about Giddens, who once showed much promise at Kansas. He's had problems but the talent is there. Walker had a weird route to college, but health issues are his only concern now. Risky, but maybe a great plan.
CHARLOTTE - while I like Augustin, I thought they could have used their first pick on a big man and their second on a point. Chalmers would still have been available. Instead, they may have to trade Felton, and while Ajinca is interesting, he's not going to help any time soon. For a team close to contending for a playoff spot, they could have done more.
CHICAGO - they bit for Rose. I'm sold if Del Negro is really thinking about going up tempo like his bosses in Pheonix. Now they have to see how to move people. Good luck.
CLEVELAND - for a team that needs help now, J.J. Hickson was a weird pick. He showed promise but will take a few years. I thought they were targeting Koufos, and he was available. This is not the way to make LeBron feel better. They did find a keeper late in Darnell Jackson, who can probably step in earlier.
DALLAS - they need to worry about free agents and trades. A change of philosophy is nice, so they'll start with that.
DENVER - they traded the pick away, thinking no one could have helped them. That's smart. They need a few trades, but probably nothing big.
DETROIT - they didn't like anyone at 29, so they traded for some second round chances. They have a good history with late picks, and I can see one or two of these guys contributing.
GOLDEN STATE - many have questioned taking Anthony Randolph with Brandan Wright there. I'm sure many will be even more angry now that Davis is likely gone. But they have a nice foundation. They seem to have a number of big guys now developing.
HOUSTON - I picked them to pick Greene, and they did, in a roundabout way. Why? Well, they picked up Joey Dorsey in the process. He might be too much like Chuck Hayes, but they can always use more big guys. I really like Greene for them. He can shoot, and they don't have depth on the wings. Great night.
INDIANA - did a lot of dealing, and came out with a completely new team. I guess I liek the direction they have now, although I didn't get the second deal. They gave up the higher pick but got back less, throwing Diogu away when I thought he was going to have more of an impact with JO gone. Also, I like Hibbert, but he has more value on a contending team that needed inside depth. I don't know if he fits in a rebuilding process. They could have gone for more potential there.
Of course, they're going to be in the lottery again next year. So maybe this is just a start.
LA CLIPPERS - had a solid night, picking up Gordon for guard depth and then landing DeAndre Jordan in the second round. He's a nothing-to-lose pick now, so that's big if he actually does something.
LA LAKERS - didn't do much, and don't need to.
MEMPHIS - is still puzzling. I think Love is solid, but they need more than that. Mayo can be their best two guard easily, and is a better pick. So I liked it from that end. They saved themselves by getting Arthur late; that could be a steal. But I chuckled at the fact that while they finally got rid of Brian Cardinal and his horrible contract, they picked up worse ones. At least they can try trading these guys.
They potentially got two starters, so that has to be considered a decent night... but are they going to ever keep any of these guys?
MIAMI - won big, even if Riley doesn't know it. Beasley was the best choice, and they stole Chalmers in the second round. Great picks.
MILWAUKEE - made it appparent that they are trying, and picked up some nice pieces. Jefferson is a good value for Yi, who never fit. I don't like them adding another scorer to a lineup full of them, but he can play some D as well. I don't know why they still drafted Alexander after the trade, but no one else was left. They should look for a defensive, bruising power forward to start and add balance. There may be more deals.
MINNESOTA - on the flip side of Memphis, I like their deals. Love and Miller give them two components, and they won't be hesitant to play there. They may be small, but Love fits with Jefferson and they needed a three who can score. It's a much better step for them.
NEW JERSEY - made it pretty clear that they're going all in for LeBron. There's no question. They added two offensive big guys to mix in with their defensive ones. Ryan Anderson thus makes less sense, but picking up CDR late was a huge steal. I like it, but of course it's all pending on the big prize in two years.
NEW ORLEANS - decided not to take anyone, despite CDR being on the board. Oh well. They'll try the open market.
NEW YORK - is taking it kinda slowly with Gallinari. I pushed for Bayless and Augustin, but I'll trust D'Antoni. He probably didn't want a rookie at the point. Gallinari may actually contribute sooner, and they can use him at several spots.
I have to give them credit. Isiah got hismelf into trouble by always going for the quick fix and the best guy at the moment. He always tried to spend and acquire people as soon as he could, without regards to long term effects. I think Walsh is going to be more patient. He knows he has some huge contracts expiring next year, and he will sit and wait until next year's trading deadline to get the deal he wants. That's a smarter way to work.
ORLANDO - Courtney Lee is solid and will get minutes at the two guard spot for a long time. They'll look at free agents up front.
PHILLY - Dear Mr. Speights,
I know that living in Philly presents a lot of temptations. Trust me, we've all been on board for that late night run to Pat's or Geno's or the Pretzel Factory or the South Street Diner and such. It's tough. But you have to get through it. You have a chance to start and contribute right away on a playoff team. How many middle round picks can say that? Do it for all of us who never could say no to a cheesesteak or a giant slice of pizza. You have a chance to be a big part of the future here.
Please?
PHOENIX - needed a backup point and a wing, and got neither. Robin Lopez is a nice role player, but they need to get more help and I don't know how much cap space they have.... or if they will spend much.
PORTLAND - did a million things and came out on top. I love Bayless next to Roy; he won't have to handle as much and can be a good scorer. They also picked up Diogu, who has some post moves and will add depth. Batum is likely bait for more trades. And they're adding two guys they drafted last year? Yowza.
SACRAMENTO - everyone is ripping them, but I don't think Thompson was a horrible pick. He can score and he doesn't have to be a savior; he just needs to form a decent tandem with Shelden Williams. None of the point guards they wanted were available, so they had to go big. They can probably re-sign Udrih and look at guards next year.
SAN ANTONIO - I have no idea who Geroge Hill is, but I guess they think he's a decent backup. They need wing help, but that may come in free agency.
SEATTLE - refuse to call them Oklahoma City until they're gone. I liked them picking up Westbrook, and they added some future and immediate help in the post. They're a two guard away from making a real turn. Too bad it will come in a weird place.
TORONTO - after the trade, they're looking nice. They need a backup point now, but that's not so hard to get. They did pick up Jawai, who might be a player in a few years.
UTAH - took another big guy. And one who doesn't really have D. I think they could have gone for a point (Chalmers) or someone else.
WASHINGTON - they were disappointed Hibbert was gone, because they could use some immediate help. With him and Lopez off the board, they decided to take another big guy project. It's the best they could do. Signing people is more important, and I'm sure they'll keep it together.
More once more news breaks.
BTW, I feel awful for you, Seattle. What a terrible move. Just an awful debacle, though one we should have seen coming (like Charlotte?)
See, my hope this summer was that the Clips would go cheap (just like the old days!), try to rebuild around theri young guys, let Magette and Brand go, and then Brand wouldn't have any choice but to look at the Sixers. Brand has been saying that he wants to stay, but he did opt out, so he might have been persuaded if they started dumping people. But now, if Davis comes, he'll almost certainly stay, and the Sixers will have to look elsewhere.
(It should be noted that they are getting together in inspiration of something like the Celtics, but they are doing it in the west. That's going to be tougher. It's also another reason I thought Brand would consider Philly. I mean, the Clippers have been spending more recently, but I didn't think they would try to jump back in the race with such a tough conference. I thought they would say f--- it, let their stars go, and slowly rebuild again. After wishing good vibes for the Clips fo so long, I should be elated that Dunleavy has finally convinced Sterling to spend some cash, but why now?)
This has already created new movement. Sources now report that the Sixers are looking at Josh Smith. Meh.... while I like him, and I think he's going to be a force, he's just way too much like the other guys they have. They can run with him, Thad, and Iggy, but that's about it. They need shooting, preferrably from a big man spot. That's why I was so keen on Brand, and I'm sure that's why they drafted Speights. Smith is a great player, but he's redundant in Philly. He's better off in Atlanta, where fans like him, he has a home base, and he's part of a rising group. Yes, they have a lot of other people to sign eventually, but he should be a priority. They can always let Childress and Marvin Williams go, but they need to keep him.
Now Golden State has a ton of space, though who knows if they'll use it. I don't entirely blame them for taking a conservative approach, when they just spent a lot and still missed the playoffs. Davis has a history of injury problems, and even though he was a catalyst for them, he's aging and they have some young guys coming up. Besides, the west just went from strong to ridiculous. Most importantly, they can say, they never gave up that much in the first place to get him. They had a good run, and while everyone in the bay is prboably very disappointed, at least they ended the playoff drought with a bang. Still.... this is not the way to entice maybe the most passionate fans in the league.
And you still ruined my plans. Damn you, Chris Mullin.
Anyway, onto draft thoughts...
ATLANTA - no picks. Like I said, I would re-sign Smith in a second. He, Horford, and Johnson deserve the big bucks. Everyone else is movable.
BOSTON - feeling great about their chemistry, they took some wild chances at wings J. R. Giddens and Bill Walker. I forgot about Giddens, who once showed much promise at Kansas. He's had problems but the talent is there. Walker had a weird route to college, but health issues are his only concern now. Risky, but maybe a great plan.
CHARLOTTE - while I like Augustin, I thought they could have used their first pick on a big man and their second on a point. Chalmers would still have been available. Instead, they may have to trade Felton, and while Ajinca is interesting, he's not going to help any time soon. For a team close to contending for a playoff spot, they could have done more.
CHICAGO - they bit for Rose. I'm sold if Del Negro is really thinking about going up tempo like his bosses in Pheonix. Now they have to see how to move people. Good luck.
CLEVELAND - for a team that needs help now, J.J. Hickson was a weird pick. He showed promise but will take a few years. I thought they were targeting Koufos, and he was available. This is not the way to make LeBron feel better. They did find a keeper late in Darnell Jackson, who can probably step in earlier.
DALLAS - they need to worry about free agents and trades. A change of philosophy is nice, so they'll start with that.
DENVER - they traded the pick away, thinking no one could have helped them. That's smart. They need a few trades, but probably nothing big.
DETROIT - they didn't like anyone at 29, so they traded for some second round chances. They have a good history with late picks, and I can see one or two of these guys contributing.
GOLDEN STATE - many have questioned taking Anthony Randolph with Brandan Wright there. I'm sure many will be even more angry now that Davis is likely gone. But they have a nice foundation. They seem to have a number of big guys now developing.
HOUSTON - I picked them to pick Greene, and they did, in a roundabout way. Why? Well, they picked up Joey Dorsey in the process. He might be too much like Chuck Hayes, but they can always use more big guys. I really like Greene for them. He can shoot, and they don't have depth on the wings. Great night.
INDIANA - did a lot of dealing, and came out with a completely new team. I guess I liek the direction they have now, although I didn't get the second deal. They gave up the higher pick but got back less, throwing Diogu away when I thought he was going to have more of an impact with JO gone. Also, I like Hibbert, but he has more value on a contending team that needed inside depth. I don't know if he fits in a rebuilding process. They could have gone for more potential there.
Of course, they're going to be in the lottery again next year. So maybe this is just a start.
LA CLIPPERS - had a solid night, picking up Gordon for guard depth and then landing DeAndre Jordan in the second round. He's a nothing-to-lose pick now, so that's big if he actually does something.
LA LAKERS - didn't do much, and don't need to.
MEMPHIS - is still puzzling. I think Love is solid, but they need more than that. Mayo can be their best two guard easily, and is a better pick. So I liked it from that end. They saved themselves by getting Arthur late; that could be a steal. But I chuckled at the fact that while they finally got rid of Brian Cardinal and his horrible contract, they picked up worse ones. At least they can try trading these guys.
They potentially got two starters, so that has to be considered a decent night... but are they going to ever keep any of these guys?
MIAMI - won big, even if Riley doesn't know it. Beasley was the best choice, and they stole Chalmers in the second round. Great picks.
MILWAUKEE - made it appparent that they are trying, and picked up some nice pieces. Jefferson is a good value for Yi, who never fit. I don't like them adding another scorer to a lineup full of them, but he can play some D as well. I don't know why they still drafted Alexander after the trade, but no one else was left. They should look for a defensive, bruising power forward to start and add balance. There may be more deals.
MINNESOTA - on the flip side of Memphis, I like their deals. Love and Miller give them two components, and they won't be hesitant to play there. They may be small, but Love fits with Jefferson and they needed a three who can score. It's a much better step for them.
NEW JERSEY - made it pretty clear that they're going all in for LeBron. There's no question. They added two offensive big guys to mix in with their defensive ones. Ryan Anderson thus makes less sense, but picking up CDR late was a huge steal. I like it, but of course it's all pending on the big prize in two years.
NEW ORLEANS - decided not to take anyone, despite CDR being on the board. Oh well. They'll try the open market.
NEW YORK - is taking it kinda slowly with Gallinari. I pushed for Bayless and Augustin, but I'll trust D'Antoni. He probably didn't want a rookie at the point. Gallinari may actually contribute sooner, and they can use him at several spots.
I have to give them credit. Isiah got hismelf into trouble by always going for the quick fix and the best guy at the moment. He always tried to spend and acquire people as soon as he could, without regards to long term effects. I think Walsh is going to be more patient. He knows he has some huge contracts expiring next year, and he will sit and wait until next year's trading deadline to get the deal he wants. That's a smarter way to work.
ORLANDO - Courtney Lee is solid and will get minutes at the two guard spot for a long time. They'll look at free agents up front.
PHILLY - Dear Mr. Speights,
I know that living in Philly presents a lot of temptations. Trust me, we've all been on board for that late night run to Pat's or Geno's or the Pretzel Factory or the South Street Diner and such. It's tough. But you have to get through it. You have a chance to start and contribute right away on a playoff team. How many middle round picks can say that? Do it for all of us who never could say no to a cheesesteak or a giant slice of pizza. You have a chance to be a big part of the future here.
Please?
PHOENIX - needed a backup point and a wing, and got neither. Robin Lopez is a nice role player, but they need to get more help and I don't know how much cap space they have.... or if they will spend much.
PORTLAND - did a million things and came out on top. I love Bayless next to Roy; he won't have to handle as much and can be a good scorer. They also picked up Diogu, who has some post moves and will add depth. Batum is likely bait for more trades. And they're adding two guys they drafted last year? Yowza.
SACRAMENTO - everyone is ripping them, but I don't think Thompson was a horrible pick. He can score and he doesn't have to be a savior; he just needs to form a decent tandem with Shelden Williams. None of the point guards they wanted were available, so they had to go big. They can probably re-sign Udrih and look at guards next year.
SAN ANTONIO - I have no idea who Geroge Hill is, but I guess they think he's a decent backup. They need wing help, but that may come in free agency.
SEATTLE - refuse to call them Oklahoma City until they're gone. I liked them picking up Westbrook, and they added some future and immediate help in the post. They're a two guard away from making a real turn. Too bad it will come in a weird place.
TORONTO - after the trade, they're looking nice. They need a backup point now, but that's not so hard to get. They did pick up Jawai, who might be a player in a few years.
UTAH - took another big guy. And one who doesn't really have D. I think they could have gone for a point (Chalmers) or someone else.
WASHINGTON - they were disappointed Hibbert was gone, because they could use some immediate help. With him and Lopez off the board, they decided to take another big guy project. It's the best they could do. Signing people is more important, and I'm sure they'll keep it together.
More once more news breaks.
BTW, I feel awful for you, Seattle. What a terrible move. Just an awful debacle, though one we should have seen coming (like Charlotte?)
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
mock draft 2008
With just one day left, I present my mock draft. The NBA draft is always intriguing because one guy can make a huge difference. Franchises can change their direction in one night. Execs can look like geniuses and prolong their careers with one really smart pick. It doesn't get as much attention as the NFL draft, which is longer, but it has more impact. One guy cannot save or doom a football team (unless maybe he's a quarterback). Yet we forget that.....
I always do many mocks, but here I will post it and give thoughts on what I would do. I will give what teams should do (S) along with what I predict they will actually do (P). Let's roll.
# 1 CHICAGO
S: Well, I initially said that's it easy to just go Beas-y. But I'm not so sure now. I like that deal with Miami I drew up, where Wade and Beasley end up in Chicago, while Ty Thomas and Ben Gordon join Rose in south beach. But that's a lot to work out.
I think Rose is the safe pick, and there's no doubt he will sell tickets and get excitement going. For a guy on the hot seat like Paxson, that looks awfully good. I just hate to wrap my mind around the other moves they'd have to make with Rose. If they really could deal Hinrich for another big man, I wouldn't fault them. I still think the best thing to do is take Beasley, but I can see why they're scared.
As I've just learned, though, they can't get in on Jermaine O'Neal. That was one of the very few ways they could have dumped guards and got big men. That's not helping. If it was any other team with the same players, I'd say Beasley. Maybe.
P: They'll take Rose. They need a positive story.
# 2 MIAMI
S: That trade with Chicago is good, but maybe not as much for them, and I wouldn't want to give up on Wade yet. So I might not be that crazy. I do like the idea of joining Wade and Mayo, which seems like the real possibility here.
But I've been thinking recently.... doesn't it make more sense to just take Beasley and then trade/let go Marion? Marion needs a true point and a running team to succeed; Wade doesn't play that way. Beasley could play the three along Wade and Haslem in a half court offense; he could post up wings and then they wouldn't have to worry about his size or finding a real big man. And while Mayo would be a perfect compliment to Wade, it shouldn't be hard for them to find another combo guard who can shoot. They almost did last summer. So if Chicago does take Rose, I might just like Beasley, unless someone offers something really good for him.... but that would have to be Minnesota, because he won't slip past 3.
And if Rose is there, I'd trade down for Mayo. Other teams would offer a lot for Rose, so they can get more if he drops. I just don't like him and Wade together.
P: They take Beasley, then trade down. They'll see what they can get from Minnesota to get Mayo. Unless Riley really is working the most complex misdirection ever.
# 3 MINNESOTA
S: I'd do anything to get Beasley.They can play him at either forward, and let him find his way. He's better than anyone they can get at 3, and he's worth giving up things. They have two early second round picks and Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man for Miami. If that's not enough, they have Miami's first round pick next year. I don't think they can re-acquire Mark Blount, but maybe they can try or make a promise to later. Or McHale can tell Riley, "Riles... come on.... I took Antoine Walker off your hands, and gave you the expiring contract from Ricky Davis. I believe you owe me." If Miami wants to move down, they need to make this happen.
If Beasley is unavailable, I'd trade down. I like Mayo, and much more than any of their guards, but they need a forward or center. In that case, see what the Knicks or Clippers will offer and then take Gallinari or Love.
If Miami has Rose and wants to trade down, they can take Mayo and then make the Heat include them in a deal.
P: Mayo to trade up. They find a way to get Beasley if Miami doesn't want him. McHale needs some positive news as much as anyone else.
# 4 SEATTLE
S: They like Bayless and Westbrook, and I do too. Of course, I'd trade anyone not named Durant to get Rose if he becomes available, but that doesn't leave a lot. Most likely, it comes down to the combo guards. I might actually like Eric Gordon the best out of them because I know he can play the two if he doesn't work as a point; the others are going to struggle if they can't adjust. Bayless looks good, but he doesn't have much room for failure. Westbrook would at least bring defensive guarantees. It's tough. I'd consider swapping with the Knicks to get Westbrook and see what they can add in.
Late news is them leaning towards Brook Lopez. Not a terrible idea, because their last few centers haven't worked out. But then, what if he does too? That's a lot of wasted projects when there are still good guards available. I don't know if they take that risk at number 4.
P: I thought they might swap with the Knicks, but it appears that Westbrook is high on a lot of lists. So I think they just stay here and take him.
# 5 MEMPHIS
S: Good Lord, where to start? They seem to be high on Kevin Love, who is not a franchise guy. They need a star big man, not a complimentary pick. Also, since Juan Carlos Navarro left, and they might deal Mike Miller, they could use a wing. This team is in such disarray, who knows anymore. I would roll the dice with Anthony Randolph, or even take Brook Lopez, who is slow...but so is Love.... and Lopez has a real post game and a few inches on him. Randolph would at least have the potential to be an athletic four, with younger Gasol and Darko slumming around.
P: They apparently love Love. But who knows. They might trade this pick and Brian Cardinal for a used Ford Tempo the way things are going.
# 6 NEW YORK
S: If there's any way they can get Derrick Rose, do that. No matter what. Same with Mayo. I like all those guys for D'Antoni.
However, I expect all of them to be gone by now, with the Knicks picking between either Bayless or Westbrook, and also D.J. Augustin, or maybe addressing forward with Randolph, Gallinari, or Joe Alexander. They need a point guard, and I like Augustin the best. Westbrook will be much better defensively, but I don't think D'Antoni is even going to try playing any D with this team, and Westbrook doesn't fit the offense. Augustin has been compared to Steve Nash and I'd even say that he has the best point guard skills of anyone offensively in this draft besides Rose (and he's a better shooter). His only problem is his size, but I really think that will only hurt him defensively. Chris Paul is an inspiration.
I know Augustin isn't rated this high, so maybe they look at trading down, but I would go with him.
P: Tough call. They've been rumored with a number of people. Bayless is slipping, but I can't imagine D'Antoni passing up on a quick guard who can score. Even if he's not a real point, he brings size and offense.
# 7 LA CLIPPERS
S: If they can't move up to get Bayless or Mayo, they will look between Gordon and Westbrook, if available. Westbrook brings a local audience and great D, but Gordon would be fine. As long as they have guard depth, they're heading the right way. The bigger concern is signing Elton Brand (or not) and getting Shaun Livingston healthy.
P: Eric Gordon. No one else is left here.
# 8 MILWAUKEE
S: If Golden State offers Brandan Wright and the 14th pick for Yi, I do that in a second. Then I take Gallinari. If they want to just add one guy, it's a tough call. They might look at Westbrook if they are going to trade Redd or Mo Williams. They should go with Joe Alexander. Originally, his only problem was that no one knew much about him and this seemed too high to take him. But now he's moving up fast, so they won't feel as bad. He gives them a nice mix of shooting and athleticism at the three.
P: Alexander, unless they've got some major trades in mind.
# 9 CHARLOTTE
S: They need a center, but that center should have some shooting ability. Love, if he drops, is a nice fit. Brook Lopez has been getting dissed, but at this pick, he's a steal. They've been heard to like Westbrook, but even though they need a backup point, they need another big guy much more. Also, they will apparently have the # 20 pick now. That ought to find them guard help.
P: Brook Lopez.
# 10 NEW JERSEY
S: They have a plan in place. First off, I'd try anything to make that deal with Denver to get Carmelo. If they have him and no one else in three years, they'll be in good shape to entice LeBron. I'd give Denver everything, even Devin Harris.
As the roster looks now, I would go for Randolph if he drops. Same with Love. Without those two, I would probably move onto DeAndre Jordan, Darell Arthur, and Marreese Speights. I like Speights the most there, although Arthur would fit in with the current team.
But it seems now like they're very intent on trading Richard Jefferson, since I hear his names in about 5 different trade rumors a day. So maybe they can fit Gallinari, as widely speculated.
P: Everyone seems to think this is where Gallinari goes, so I'll bite.
# 11 INDIANA
S: Everything I had ready went down the drain when the big trade was announced. Personally, I think they can do better. I'd rather have Ty Thomas and Kirk Hinrich. They were tired of JO being injured all the time, but Ford has had several big injury scares as well. He's a real point, but he can't shoot it that well.
So now, instead of targeting a point, they may want to gamble on another big man. Ike Digou showed some promise when they first got him, but he didn't do much last year. This is a nice time to take a swing on a project. If Randolph slips, they might have a steal in a few years.
P: Anthony Randolph is still there, and I think they gladly take the chance.
# 12 SACRAMENTO
S: They need a point or a four. Again, they'll be happy if Westbrook or Augustin is available. I doubt both slip.
If both are gone, they may look at Arthur, Jordan, or Speights. They've been rumored to like Roy Hibbert, and I think he'll actually have some value, but this seems too high. I'd go with Arthur then, unless Randolph is still around.
P: Augustin is here in my prediction. They'll be stoked. They may want to send a thank you note to Toronto for solving Indiana's point problem.
# 13 PORTLAND
S: They'll probably trade this pick, and that's smart. The only guy I could kinda like for them here is Alexander, but I doubt he'll be available. They have two early second rounders, a late first, and a big expiring contract in Raef LaFrentz. That should get something, with this.
I'd offer Memphis both first round picks, LaFrentz, Channing Frye, and Martell Webster in exchange for Mike Miller and Cardinal's death trap. That would make this team scary.
P: I had a strong feeling this is where DeAndre Jordan would go, but it wouldn't be Portland who did it. But he's been dropping hard. Maybe Phoenix trades up to make sure they get Rush.
In any case, this pick will be moved, so it's tough to tell. I can't know who will go here until the trade happens. But I think the pick with the most value here is Brandon Rush. Someone will grab him here.
# 14 GOLDEN STATE
S: I wouldn't make the Yi deal I said earlier because I like Wright as a real inside presence in their offense. I do think they can target Yi, though. If they can give up this pick, a future one, and agree to take on Gadzuric, then I would try that. If they can give up Wright and other people, but keep this pick, I would also do that and take Arthur or JaVale McGee.
If they keep the pick, they have interesting choices. Speights is a good scorer down low, but he might not have the conditioning they like. Jordan is another risky prospect, which hasn't worked out. Arthur is too much like Wright; they shouldn't have both. Kostas Koufos might be a good fit because he's a big who can run and shoot it fairly well. If they don't make any deals, I think he's the guy.
P: I think they will try to get Yi again, but as my predictions are going, I will pencil in Koufos here.
# 15 PHOENIX
S: I'd hope that Brandon Rush drops. In this case, he doesn't. If he's gone, I might trade this pick and Barbosa for a better wing.
If Augustin somehow slipped this far, and Rush was gone, however much I doubt it, I'd take him to ease Nash. He could even replace him in a few years. The problem here is that Rush might go at spot 13, depending who picks there.
I'd make this offer to Portland if they do pick Rush or someone else wants him at 13: Barbosa and # 15 for # 13 and Jarret Jack. That way, they could get Rush and also bring in a backup point whom the Blazers are iffy on. The Blazers would then have a quick guard to pair with Roy.
P: They trade up to get Rush. He just makes too much sense for them not to get him. I don't know who ends up with this pick in the long run, but I do think this is where people start taking gambles... so let's say DeAndre Jordan.
# 16 PHILLY
S: First off, I'd make a big offer to Elton Brand and hope the Clips give up. I hate to work this way, but they have a history of cheapness. As for this pick, they will likely look at Jordan, Arthur and Speights. If all are there, I like Speights. Arthur is more athletic and that would seem to fit them, but I think they want to find a big guy with some actual offense. Jordan just looks lost.
I wondered during the season if maybe they would think about taking Hibbert and pairing him up with Dalembert to give them tons of size. Hibbert is slow, but maybe that helps him if he's not the only big guy. Or maybe this would be terrible. I'm not sure. I've been reading a lot about Speights since most experts have targeted him for the Sixers, and I'm getting worried. David Thorpe has seen a lot of him and thinks he's a bust.
Of course, if he's the sorry note they use to take Brand, I feel much better.
P: Speights. I will cross my fingers that he's trying.
# 17 TORONTO *****
S: This pick is now supposedly going to Indiana as part of the big deal. I thought Toronto would be content to take Robin Lopez for depth here, but I give them credit. They traded an expensive backup they weren't going to use that much for a former all-star. Even if JO is washed up, they didn't really lose much, and he'll be a free agent again soon.
So for the Pacers, if they took a big man last time, they will go for a guard here. They seemed to have solved their point guard spot, but they need depth. Tinsley and Ford have injury history, and neither is a great shooter. Chalmers can shoot and play both guard spots. It's something.
P: Mario Chalmers.
# 18 WASHINGTON
S: They always seem to need big guys. Andray Blatche and Oleksiy Perechov are still up in the air. They will likely have a chance with McGee and Hibbert, maybe even Jordan and Speights. Hibbert is a hometown guy, which may help or hurt. They've certainly seen a lot of him. I like McGee because he has more upside, but Hibbert would be able to come off the bench and score down low.
P: Hibbert has been looking better lately, and he'd generate more fan interest than anyone you can get at this point. He can score down low, and they don't have that.
# 19 CLEVELAND
S: They should get a big guy who can score, because Varejao and Big Ben can't. Koufos is local and knows LeBron, but he may be gone. They'll likely pick from the same guys Washington did. I like Hibbert if he's here. He can play the half court. Arthur is more athletic but less refined. McGee might be too much of a question mark. Speights would be terrific but I think he won't be there.
One guy who I first thought might be too much of a reach but now isn't? Jason Thompson. He's big and can score. He played at a small school, but you can't overlook a 6-10 guy with skills. Plus, he's ready to play. They can't wait for prospects. Pending on who is available, I go Koufos, Speights, Hibbert, Thompson, Arthur, McGee.
P: In this case, it's Thompson.
# 20 DENVER ***** CHAR
S: To counteract New Jersey, I would certainly NOT trade Melo. He's worth too much. They have a good team; I see a few tweaks rather than a complete overhaul. They might want a tall point to play next to Iverson, and a big who can shoot.
Well, it looks now like they will not even try to grab anyone here. That's okay, no one stood out as a definite answer to them. This pick is heading to Charlotte, and they want a point guard bad. If Chalmers is still on the board, they made a good pick. If not.... I'm not sure where they head. They'll probably grab another big guy and hope free agency nets them something.
P: Without Chalmers, they take a crack at French big man Alexis Ajinca. He's the anti-Lopez, unproven but athletic. Maybe it will all even out for them.
# 21 NEW JERSEY
S: Again, who knows if they pick here. This could easily be traded. If they stay, it depends on what they did with the tenth pick. If they didn't get a big there, they will now. If they did, they will go for depth on the perimeter. Most likely, they will choose amongst the big guys I've been talking about for the last few picks.
P: Well, I had them taking Gallinari earlier, so I guess they will go for Arthur here. They'd actually be really excited to get both. They'd even consider Arthur at 10.
# 22 ORLANDO
S: Depends on if they want to keep the small lineup or go big again. I think Van Gundy likes small ball if he can get better guards. They will look at Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas Roberts. They supposedly like Lee the best, and I have to agree. He's solid.
P: Courtney Lee
# 23 UTAH
S: Everyone says they need another big guy. Don't they already have Millsap off the bench, plus Jarron Collins, plus Fesenko - another huge prospect? But I guess they can't get any more wings after they did the last few years. I'd go with Chalmers if he's available. They don't have a true backup to Williams.
If he's gone, I suppose I take a look at big men. I guess it wouldn't hurt to add a defender. Now that Toronto's out, they could grab the other Lopez. He can come in and hurt people in the way Boozer and Okur won't.
P: Robin Lopez.
# 24 SEATTLE
S: If they keep this, they will probably go for an international post prospect, or a local project. I'd do the same.
If McGee or Jordan are available, it wouldn't hurt to take a look. They've already tried 4 big man projects in the past few years... fifth time's the charm? I think they need a true off guard who can shoot, not just throwing Durant there, but they have time for that later.
P: JaVale McGee
# 25 HOUSTON
S: They always seem to need power forwards, but that might be a reach here. Besides, they finally have some in Scola and Landry, while Steve Novak and Chuck Hayes are nice specialists. I hear they like Thompson or Ryan Anderson, but are they any better than those guys?
I think they should go for a wing, because there are none after McGrady and Battier. Donte Greene has slipped this far in my predictions because no one needed him before. They'd be delighted to get him.
P: Greene, which could be a steal.
# 26 SAN ANTONIO
S: They need to get younger on the wings. Usually, they'd go for an international big, but they have enough of those. They will look at who is available amongst Lee, Douglas-Roberts, Greene, Chalmers, and Nicolas Batum. If Batum is still there, he would fit in perfectly with what they do. He was talked about as a lottery pick in the past few years, so he might be a steal.
I hear they want Ryan Anderson, but is he any better than Matt Bonner? Or someone they could find for cheap in free agency?
P: Batum. Doesn't this sound exactly like the kind of thing that always happens to them?
# 27 PORTLAND
S: The Hornets gave up because they didn't think they could get a good player here. I thought they could probably land Douglas-Roberts or Lee, but they might not. I did say that if both of those guys were gone, I would trade out of the first round.
Portland is up to something. I don't know what, but they are. They can always go international.
P: Ante Tomic, another project they can stash or trade.
# 28 MEMPHIS
S: If they still have this pick, they should add some depth on the wing, if they took a big guy earlier. Any wing left would help, especially a two guard. Most mocks have them looking at J. J. Hickson, a raw four. Well, it can't hurt to stockpile big prospects.
It's hard to make a prediction without knowing if they will trade Miller. Why not look at college star CDR? He's not Derrick Rose, but he's familiar with fans.
P: Hickson. Everyone likes him here.
# 29 DETROIT
S: I'd look at the trade offers. I would probably do the Billups/Prince for Melo deal. I might trade 'Sheed if I had to.
What do they actually need in the draft? A true center who can score down low, but that's hard to find here. They were probably hoping earlier that people would sour on Hibbert, but that may not happen anymore. McGee, if he drops, is a Detroit native and a risky pick, but not so much at this stage.
If CDR slips this far, he's also a Detroit native who can play right away. As much as they need a big guy, he's local and the best guy on the board by far. He'd give them depth and might ease the burden of any trade.
P: Chris Douglas Roberts
# 30 BOSTON
S: They can always use another big guy, since P.J. will probably hang it up. Not right now, but eventually. That means international. They will likely take the best big guy left, which I think means whomever the other teams in the 20's don't take.
If Lee or Douglas-Roberts fell to them, they might sweep them up. They were scared about Tony Allen because of his poor shooting and handling. If any spot is a concern, it might be two guard.
Also, they could look at Ryan Anderson, who seems projected to go around here. He's a big man shooter in the vein of Steve Novak or Matt Bonner. He could fit.
P: Anderson. He's supposedly guaranteed to go in the first round, so he can't be any lower on the list. Let's hope he's worth more than Scalabrine.
...
...
And that does it for the first round. In the second round, I look for some sleepers who can do different things, like specialists. Anderson will be a target if he doesn't go in the first. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can D it up, even if he can't score. Kyle Weaver can shoot and play both guard spots. Bill Walker was once a top prospect, but got hurt. He could slip into the first if he looks better. Davon Jefferson came out too early, but he was rated high once. Joey Dorsey brings rebounding and energy, if nothing else. Trent Plaisted has decent offense for a big guy. All of these guys could be bench players if they work. I also look at internationals who will take a few years to develop.
The first five picks in the second round are: Minnesota, Seattle, Portland, Minnesota, LA Clippers, and Portland. This leads me to believe that Minnesota and Portland will be busy trading up. Or out.
But I guess we'll really find out tomorrow night.
I always do many mocks, but here I will post it and give thoughts on what I would do. I will give what teams should do (S) along with what I predict they will actually do (P). Let's roll.
# 1 CHICAGO
S: Well, I initially said that's it easy to just go Beas-y. But I'm not so sure now. I like that deal with Miami I drew up, where Wade and Beasley end up in Chicago, while Ty Thomas and Ben Gordon join Rose in south beach. But that's a lot to work out.
I think Rose is the safe pick, and there's no doubt he will sell tickets and get excitement going. For a guy on the hot seat like Paxson, that looks awfully good. I just hate to wrap my mind around the other moves they'd have to make with Rose. If they really could deal Hinrich for another big man, I wouldn't fault them. I still think the best thing to do is take Beasley, but I can see why they're scared.
As I've just learned, though, they can't get in on Jermaine O'Neal. That was one of the very few ways they could have dumped guards and got big men. That's not helping. If it was any other team with the same players, I'd say Beasley. Maybe.
P: They'll take Rose. They need a positive story.
# 2 MIAMI
S: That trade with Chicago is good, but maybe not as much for them, and I wouldn't want to give up on Wade yet. So I might not be that crazy. I do like the idea of joining Wade and Mayo, which seems like the real possibility here.
But I've been thinking recently.... doesn't it make more sense to just take Beasley and then trade/let go Marion? Marion needs a true point and a running team to succeed; Wade doesn't play that way. Beasley could play the three along Wade and Haslem in a half court offense; he could post up wings and then they wouldn't have to worry about his size or finding a real big man. And while Mayo would be a perfect compliment to Wade, it shouldn't be hard for them to find another combo guard who can shoot. They almost did last summer. So if Chicago does take Rose, I might just like Beasley, unless someone offers something really good for him.... but that would have to be Minnesota, because he won't slip past 3.
And if Rose is there, I'd trade down for Mayo. Other teams would offer a lot for Rose, so they can get more if he drops. I just don't like him and Wade together.
P: They take Beasley, then trade down. They'll see what they can get from Minnesota to get Mayo. Unless Riley really is working the most complex misdirection ever.
# 3 MINNESOTA
S: I'd do anything to get Beasley.They can play him at either forward, and let him find his way. He's better than anyone they can get at 3, and he's worth giving up things. They have two early second round picks and Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man for Miami. If that's not enough, they have Miami's first round pick next year. I don't think they can re-acquire Mark Blount, but maybe they can try or make a promise to later. Or McHale can tell Riley, "Riles... come on.... I took Antoine Walker off your hands, and gave you the expiring contract from Ricky Davis. I believe you owe me." If Miami wants to move down, they need to make this happen.
If Beasley is unavailable, I'd trade down. I like Mayo, and much more than any of their guards, but they need a forward or center. In that case, see what the Knicks or Clippers will offer and then take Gallinari or Love.
If Miami has Rose and wants to trade down, they can take Mayo and then make the Heat include them in a deal.
P: Mayo to trade up. They find a way to get Beasley if Miami doesn't want him. McHale needs some positive news as much as anyone else.
# 4 SEATTLE
S: They like Bayless and Westbrook, and I do too. Of course, I'd trade anyone not named Durant to get Rose if he becomes available, but that doesn't leave a lot. Most likely, it comes down to the combo guards. I might actually like Eric Gordon the best out of them because I know he can play the two if he doesn't work as a point; the others are going to struggle if they can't adjust. Bayless looks good, but he doesn't have much room for failure. Westbrook would at least bring defensive guarantees. It's tough. I'd consider swapping with the Knicks to get Westbrook and see what they can add in.
Late news is them leaning towards Brook Lopez. Not a terrible idea, because their last few centers haven't worked out. But then, what if he does too? That's a lot of wasted projects when there are still good guards available. I don't know if they take that risk at number 4.
P: I thought they might swap with the Knicks, but it appears that Westbrook is high on a lot of lists. So I think they just stay here and take him.
# 5 MEMPHIS
S: Good Lord, where to start? They seem to be high on Kevin Love, who is not a franchise guy. They need a star big man, not a complimentary pick. Also, since Juan Carlos Navarro left, and they might deal Mike Miller, they could use a wing. This team is in such disarray, who knows anymore. I would roll the dice with Anthony Randolph, or even take Brook Lopez, who is slow...but so is Love.... and Lopez has a real post game and a few inches on him. Randolph would at least have the potential to be an athletic four, with younger Gasol and Darko slumming around.
P: They apparently love Love. But who knows. They might trade this pick and Brian Cardinal for a used Ford Tempo the way things are going.
# 6 NEW YORK
S: If there's any way they can get Derrick Rose, do that. No matter what. Same with Mayo. I like all those guys for D'Antoni.
However, I expect all of them to be gone by now, with the Knicks picking between either Bayless or Westbrook, and also D.J. Augustin, or maybe addressing forward with Randolph, Gallinari, or Joe Alexander. They need a point guard, and I like Augustin the best. Westbrook will be much better defensively, but I don't think D'Antoni is even going to try playing any D with this team, and Westbrook doesn't fit the offense. Augustin has been compared to Steve Nash and I'd even say that he has the best point guard skills of anyone offensively in this draft besides Rose (and he's a better shooter). His only problem is his size, but I really think that will only hurt him defensively. Chris Paul is an inspiration.
I know Augustin isn't rated this high, so maybe they look at trading down, but I would go with him.
P: Tough call. They've been rumored with a number of people. Bayless is slipping, but I can't imagine D'Antoni passing up on a quick guard who can score. Even if he's not a real point, he brings size and offense.
# 7 LA CLIPPERS
S: If they can't move up to get Bayless or Mayo, they will look between Gordon and Westbrook, if available. Westbrook brings a local audience and great D, but Gordon would be fine. As long as they have guard depth, they're heading the right way. The bigger concern is signing Elton Brand (or not) and getting Shaun Livingston healthy.
P: Eric Gordon. No one else is left here.
# 8 MILWAUKEE
S: If Golden State offers Brandan Wright and the 14th pick for Yi, I do that in a second. Then I take Gallinari. If they want to just add one guy, it's a tough call. They might look at Westbrook if they are going to trade Redd or Mo Williams. They should go with Joe Alexander. Originally, his only problem was that no one knew much about him and this seemed too high to take him. But now he's moving up fast, so they won't feel as bad. He gives them a nice mix of shooting and athleticism at the three.
P: Alexander, unless they've got some major trades in mind.
# 9 CHARLOTTE
S: They need a center, but that center should have some shooting ability. Love, if he drops, is a nice fit. Brook Lopez has been getting dissed, but at this pick, he's a steal. They've been heard to like Westbrook, but even though they need a backup point, they need another big guy much more. Also, they will apparently have the # 20 pick now. That ought to find them guard help.
P: Brook Lopez.
# 10 NEW JERSEY
S: They have a plan in place. First off, I'd try anything to make that deal with Denver to get Carmelo. If they have him and no one else in three years, they'll be in good shape to entice LeBron. I'd give Denver everything, even Devin Harris.
As the roster looks now, I would go for Randolph if he drops. Same with Love. Without those two, I would probably move onto DeAndre Jordan, Darell Arthur, and Marreese Speights. I like Speights the most there, although Arthur would fit in with the current team.
But it seems now like they're very intent on trading Richard Jefferson, since I hear his names in about 5 different trade rumors a day. So maybe they can fit Gallinari, as widely speculated.
P: Everyone seems to think this is where Gallinari goes, so I'll bite.
# 11 INDIANA
S: Everything I had ready went down the drain when the big trade was announced. Personally, I think they can do better. I'd rather have Ty Thomas and Kirk Hinrich. They were tired of JO being injured all the time, but Ford has had several big injury scares as well. He's a real point, but he can't shoot it that well.
So now, instead of targeting a point, they may want to gamble on another big man. Ike Digou showed some promise when they first got him, but he didn't do much last year. This is a nice time to take a swing on a project. If Randolph slips, they might have a steal in a few years.
P: Anthony Randolph is still there, and I think they gladly take the chance.
# 12 SACRAMENTO
S: They need a point or a four. Again, they'll be happy if Westbrook or Augustin is available. I doubt both slip.
If both are gone, they may look at Arthur, Jordan, or Speights. They've been rumored to like Roy Hibbert, and I think he'll actually have some value, but this seems too high. I'd go with Arthur then, unless Randolph is still around.
P: Augustin is here in my prediction. They'll be stoked. They may want to send a thank you note to Toronto for solving Indiana's point problem.
# 13 PORTLAND
S: They'll probably trade this pick, and that's smart. The only guy I could kinda like for them here is Alexander, but I doubt he'll be available. They have two early second rounders, a late first, and a big expiring contract in Raef LaFrentz. That should get something, with this.
I'd offer Memphis both first round picks, LaFrentz, Channing Frye, and Martell Webster in exchange for Mike Miller and Cardinal's death trap. That would make this team scary.
P: I had a strong feeling this is where DeAndre Jordan would go, but it wouldn't be Portland who did it. But he's been dropping hard. Maybe Phoenix trades up to make sure they get Rush.
In any case, this pick will be moved, so it's tough to tell. I can't know who will go here until the trade happens. But I think the pick with the most value here is Brandon Rush. Someone will grab him here.
# 14 GOLDEN STATE
S: I wouldn't make the Yi deal I said earlier because I like Wright as a real inside presence in their offense. I do think they can target Yi, though. If they can give up this pick, a future one, and agree to take on Gadzuric, then I would try that. If they can give up Wright and other people, but keep this pick, I would also do that and take Arthur or JaVale McGee.
If they keep the pick, they have interesting choices. Speights is a good scorer down low, but he might not have the conditioning they like. Jordan is another risky prospect, which hasn't worked out. Arthur is too much like Wright; they shouldn't have both. Kostas Koufos might be a good fit because he's a big who can run and shoot it fairly well. If they don't make any deals, I think he's the guy.
P: I think they will try to get Yi again, but as my predictions are going, I will pencil in Koufos here.
# 15 PHOENIX
S: I'd hope that Brandon Rush drops. In this case, he doesn't. If he's gone, I might trade this pick and Barbosa for a better wing.
If Augustin somehow slipped this far, and Rush was gone, however much I doubt it, I'd take him to ease Nash. He could even replace him in a few years. The problem here is that Rush might go at spot 13, depending who picks there.
I'd make this offer to Portland if they do pick Rush or someone else wants him at 13: Barbosa and # 15 for # 13 and Jarret Jack. That way, they could get Rush and also bring in a backup point whom the Blazers are iffy on. The Blazers would then have a quick guard to pair with Roy.
P: They trade up to get Rush. He just makes too much sense for them not to get him. I don't know who ends up with this pick in the long run, but I do think this is where people start taking gambles... so let's say DeAndre Jordan.
# 16 PHILLY
S: First off, I'd make a big offer to Elton Brand and hope the Clips give up. I hate to work this way, but they have a history of cheapness. As for this pick, they will likely look at Jordan, Arthur and Speights. If all are there, I like Speights. Arthur is more athletic and that would seem to fit them, but I think they want to find a big guy with some actual offense. Jordan just looks lost.
I wondered during the season if maybe they would think about taking Hibbert and pairing him up with Dalembert to give them tons of size. Hibbert is slow, but maybe that helps him if he's not the only big guy. Or maybe this would be terrible. I'm not sure. I've been reading a lot about Speights since most experts have targeted him for the Sixers, and I'm getting worried. David Thorpe has seen a lot of him and thinks he's a bust.
Of course, if he's the sorry note they use to take Brand, I feel much better.
P: Speights. I will cross my fingers that he's trying.
# 17 TORONTO *****
S: This pick is now supposedly going to Indiana as part of the big deal. I thought Toronto would be content to take Robin Lopez for depth here, but I give them credit. They traded an expensive backup they weren't going to use that much for a former all-star. Even if JO is washed up, they didn't really lose much, and he'll be a free agent again soon.
So for the Pacers, if they took a big man last time, they will go for a guard here. They seemed to have solved their point guard spot, but they need depth. Tinsley and Ford have injury history, and neither is a great shooter. Chalmers can shoot and play both guard spots. It's something.
P: Mario Chalmers.
# 18 WASHINGTON
S: They always seem to need big guys. Andray Blatche and Oleksiy Perechov are still up in the air. They will likely have a chance with McGee and Hibbert, maybe even Jordan and Speights. Hibbert is a hometown guy, which may help or hurt. They've certainly seen a lot of him. I like McGee because he has more upside, but Hibbert would be able to come off the bench and score down low.
P: Hibbert has been looking better lately, and he'd generate more fan interest than anyone you can get at this point. He can score down low, and they don't have that.
# 19 CLEVELAND
S: They should get a big guy who can score, because Varejao and Big Ben can't. Koufos is local and knows LeBron, but he may be gone. They'll likely pick from the same guys Washington did. I like Hibbert if he's here. He can play the half court. Arthur is more athletic but less refined. McGee might be too much of a question mark. Speights would be terrific but I think he won't be there.
One guy who I first thought might be too much of a reach but now isn't? Jason Thompson. He's big and can score. He played at a small school, but you can't overlook a 6-10 guy with skills. Plus, he's ready to play. They can't wait for prospects. Pending on who is available, I go Koufos, Speights, Hibbert, Thompson, Arthur, McGee.
P: In this case, it's Thompson.
# 20 DENVER ***** CHAR
S: To counteract New Jersey, I would certainly NOT trade Melo. He's worth too much. They have a good team; I see a few tweaks rather than a complete overhaul. They might want a tall point to play next to Iverson, and a big who can shoot.
Well, it looks now like they will not even try to grab anyone here. That's okay, no one stood out as a definite answer to them. This pick is heading to Charlotte, and they want a point guard bad. If Chalmers is still on the board, they made a good pick. If not.... I'm not sure where they head. They'll probably grab another big guy and hope free agency nets them something.
P: Without Chalmers, they take a crack at French big man Alexis Ajinca. He's the anti-Lopez, unproven but athletic. Maybe it will all even out for them.
# 21 NEW JERSEY
S: Again, who knows if they pick here. This could easily be traded. If they stay, it depends on what they did with the tenth pick. If they didn't get a big there, they will now. If they did, they will go for depth on the perimeter. Most likely, they will choose amongst the big guys I've been talking about for the last few picks.
P: Well, I had them taking Gallinari earlier, so I guess they will go for Arthur here. They'd actually be really excited to get both. They'd even consider Arthur at 10.
# 22 ORLANDO
S: Depends on if they want to keep the small lineup or go big again. I think Van Gundy likes small ball if he can get better guards. They will look at Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas Roberts. They supposedly like Lee the best, and I have to agree. He's solid.
P: Courtney Lee
# 23 UTAH
S: Everyone says they need another big guy. Don't they already have Millsap off the bench, plus Jarron Collins, plus Fesenko - another huge prospect? But I guess they can't get any more wings after they did the last few years. I'd go with Chalmers if he's available. They don't have a true backup to Williams.
If he's gone, I suppose I take a look at big men. I guess it wouldn't hurt to add a defender. Now that Toronto's out, they could grab the other Lopez. He can come in and hurt people in the way Boozer and Okur won't.
P: Robin Lopez.
# 24 SEATTLE
S: If they keep this, they will probably go for an international post prospect, or a local project. I'd do the same.
If McGee or Jordan are available, it wouldn't hurt to take a look. They've already tried 4 big man projects in the past few years... fifth time's the charm? I think they need a true off guard who can shoot, not just throwing Durant there, but they have time for that later.
P: JaVale McGee
# 25 HOUSTON
S: They always seem to need power forwards, but that might be a reach here. Besides, they finally have some in Scola and Landry, while Steve Novak and Chuck Hayes are nice specialists. I hear they like Thompson or Ryan Anderson, but are they any better than those guys?
I think they should go for a wing, because there are none after McGrady and Battier. Donte Greene has slipped this far in my predictions because no one needed him before. They'd be delighted to get him.
P: Greene, which could be a steal.
# 26 SAN ANTONIO
S: They need to get younger on the wings. Usually, they'd go for an international big, but they have enough of those. They will look at who is available amongst Lee, Douglas-Roberts, Greene, Chalmers, and Nicolas Batum. If Batum is still there, he would fit in perfectly with what they do. He was talked about as a lottery pick in the past few years, so he might be a steal.
I hear they want Ryan Anderson, but is he any better than Matt Bonner? Or someone they could find for cheap in free agency?
P: Batum. Doesn't this sound exactly like the kind of thing that always happens to them?
# 27 PORTLAND
S: The Hornets gave up because they didn't think they could get a good player here. I thought they could probably land Douglas-Roberts or Lee, but they might not. I did say that if both of those guys were gone, I would trade out of the first round.
Portland is up to something. I don't know what, but they are. They can always go international.
P: Ante Tomic, another project they can stash or trade.
# 28 MEMPHIS
S: If they still have this pick, they should add some depth on the wing, if they took a big guy earlier. Any wing left would help, especially a two guard. Most mocks have them looking at J. J. Hickson, a raw four. Well, it can't hurt to stockpile big prospects.
It's hard to make a prediction without knowing if they will trade Miller. Why not look at college star CDR? He's not Derrick Rose, but he's familiar with fans.
P: Hickson. Everyone likes him here.
# 29 DETROIT
S: I'd look at the trade offers. I would probably do the Billups/Prince for Melo deal. I might trade 'Sheed if I had to.
What do they actually need in the draft? A true center who can score down low, but that's hard to find here. They were probably hoping earlier that people would sour on Hibbert, but that may not happen anymore. McGee, if he drops, is a Detroit native and a risky pick, but not so much at this stage.
If CDR slips this far, he's also a Detroit native who can play right away. As much as they need a big guy, he's local and the best guy on the board by far. He'd give them depth and might ease the burden of any trade.
P: Chris Douglas Roberts
# 30 BOSTON
S: They can always use another big guy, since P.J. will probably hang it up. Not right now, but eventually. That means international. They will likely take the best big guy left, which I think means whomever the other teams in the 20's don't take.
If Lee or Douglas-Roberts fell to them, they might sweep them up. They were scared about Tony Allen because of his poor shooting and handling. If any spot is a concern, it might be two guard.
Also, they could look at Ryan Anderson, who seems projected to go around here. He's a big man shooter in the vein of Steve Novak or Matt Bonner. He could fit.
P: Anderson. He's supposedly guaranteed to go in the first round, so he can't be any lower on the list. Let's hope he's worth more than Scalabrine.
...
...
And that does it for the first round. In the second round, I look for some sleepers who can do different things, like specialists. Anderson will be a target if he doesn't go in the first. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can D it up, even if he can't score. Kyle Weaver can shoot and play both guard spots. Bill Walker was once a top prospect, but got hurt. He could slip into the first if he looks better. Davon Jefferson came out too early, but he was rated high once. Joey Dorsey brings rebounding and energy, if nothing else. Trent Plaisted has decent offense for a big guy. All of these guys could be bench players if they work. I also look at internationals who will take a few years to develop.
The first five picks in the second round are: Minnesota, Seattle, Portland, Minnesota, LA Clippers, and Portland. This leads me to believe that Minnesota and Portland will be busy trading up. Or out.
But I guess we'll really find out tomorrow night.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
finals thoughts, and the incredible shrinking beasley
After a day joyously listening to the LA fans display anger and embarrassment, I had to think about just what happened. Not just in that game 6 blowout, but the whole series. I jumped on board the Lakers-can't-lose bandwagon, and I'm glad I was wrong, but I'm surprised to see people getting upset so quickly. This wasn't supposed to be a strong year for the Lakers; they spent all summer trying to satisfy Kobe and were never at full strength for the latter half of the season. They won one of the toughest conferences in recent memory despite new people and a large hole at center. They beat the Spurs and the Jazz without a huge front line. Now the fans want an overhaul?
Chill out, LA: you may look bad now, but if Bynum comes back, there's really not much to worry about. Gasol and Odom had to play bigger then they should in the finals, and Boston was the only team to really expose it. But if they have Bynum, Gasol only now has to worry about the 4, and Odom can go back out to the wing. That's a huge front line, as I've said before, and athletic. They can absolutely dominate with that big front line and Kobe in the back. Their main problems in the finals were rebounding and interior defense; Bynum helps to solve that. Adding him in makes them huge again and completely changes the opposition's defensive plans. I really think it's that simple for them.
Of course, people want an overhaul, and believe that they can get it for nothing (well, they did last year). There's no way the Lakers can or should do that. Odom, however, is going to be a free agent next year, so his contract might be attractive to other teams. I predicted that he would be out, because of that contract, when the Lakers were looking for trades to help Kobe. Maybe now the Lakers will take a quick look at what's available. I'd keep him for next year, unless something great comes up. He faded in this series, but if he gets to play more on the perimeter, and he's not the main focus, he does better. He had to play down low all the time and he was expected to take a lot of shots, and that's not his style. Bynum teamed with Gasol would allow him to take advantage of smaller wings and contribute on the boards as a slashing wing, not a true post player. Trust me, he's much more effective that way.
Bynum's health should be the key issue of the summer for them. Even if he comes back strong, though, they might want to look at a legitimate backup center who can board and mix it up inside (Desanga Diop? someone like that?). Other than that, I don't think they have to go crazy. I would trade Radmanovic or Walton, but I doubt other teams are that interested.
Anyway, it was nice to see Boston's guys get it, even if I can't have much sympathy for the franchise or the city right now. They're a likable bunch. Considering everything that's happened, I guess it's the best outcome. I feel for the Phoenix guys, but I can't think of any team besides the Sixers that I could really root for like the group Boston had.
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Onto draft matters.... June is such a great month for hoops. Imagine if the NFL held their draft a week after the Super Bowl happened.
I'm getting worried by all the Beasley stories. I thought Chicago should just take him and forget about everything else. It was too simple. But now, in light of his height revelation, I am starting to back off a little. It's not that I think he'll be a bust, but if he's not a legitimate four, his value goes way down. Bigger guys are harder to replace, and if his real position is the three, he's just not as attractive, even though I'm fairly convinced he can score 20 a night from day one. It would kinda kill what Chicago needs, and Miami already has Marion and Haslem. They can't go that small with all three. So if he's projected as a small forward - which he was by scouts at the beginning of the season - I don't really know if he should be the first pick. The Bulls know Rose will be a solid true point. If they don't know if Beasley will be a solid true PF, maybe that makes it easier for them.
Of course, he'll have plenty of suitors. Miami could deal the pick to Memphis, to get some players and the fifth pick to get Mayo, but then the Wolves could deal the next pick to other teams who also want Mayo. I'm thinking that if Miami wants Mayo more than Beasley, but knows that Mayo won't slip past three or four, then they'll probably just have to accept Minnesota's offer. The Wolves could give Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man, and they have two early second round picks. It's something. Miami gets the guy they want and some extra pieces for depth. Minnesota has a tough tandem with Jefferson and Beasley, and they have the time to figure out which positions those guys should play.
I don't know why Memphis likes Kevin Love at # 5. They could trade down, package that with all their extra pieces for an established star, or go for someone with more promise like Anthony Randolph. Love and Darko together? That's not going anywhere.
This is going to be a great week. There's so many potential moves. Right now, if I had to do a mock (and I love doing these), here's my idea:
1. Bulls - Derrick Rose
2. Wolves (trade) - Michael Beasley
3. Heat (trade) - O.J. Mayo
4. Sonics - Jarryd Bayless
5. Grizzlies - Anthony Randolph (just think about it, please, or fold the team)
6. Knicks - Russell Westbrook
7. Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Bucks - Joe Alexander
9. Bobcats - Brook Lopez
10. Nets - Kevin Love
11. Pacers - D.J. Augustin
12. Kings - Danilo Gallinari (surprised he drops, but he doesn't fit in NJ and they can play him next to Artest for now)
13. Blazers - DeAndre Jordan (they'll trade this to someone)
14. Warriors - Donte Greene
15. Suns - Brandon Rush (if he's gone, they may make some trades)
16. Sixers - Marreese Speights
17. Raptors - Robin Lopez
18. Wizards - Roy Hibbert
19. Cavs - Kostas Koufos
20. Nuggets - JaVale McGee
21. Nets - Darell Arthur
22. Magic - Courtney Lee
23. Jazz - Nicolas Batum
24. Sonics - Serge Ibaka
25. Rockets - Jason Thompson
26. Spurs - Mario Chalmers
27. Hornets - Chris Douglas-Roberts
28. Grizzlies - J.J. Hickson
29. Pistons - Alex Anjia
30. Celtics - Nathan Jawal
Chill out, LA: you may look bad now, but if Bynum comes back, there's really not much to worry about. Gasol and Odom had to play bigger then they should in the finals, and Boston was the only team to really expose it. But if they have Bynum, Gasol only now has to worry about the 4, and Odom can go back out to the wing. That's a huge front line, as I've said before, and athletic. They can absolutely dominate with that big front line and Kobe in the back. Their main problems in the finals were rebounding and interior defense; Bynum helps to solve that. Adding him in makes them huge again and completely changes the opposition's defensive plans. I really think it's that simple for them.
Of course, people want an overhaul, and believe that they can get it for nothing (well, they did last year). There's no way the Lakers can or should do that. Odom, however, is going to be a free agent next year, so his contract might be attractive to other teams. I predicted that he would be out, because of that contract, when the Lakers were looking for trades to help Kobe. Maybe now the Lakers will take a quick look at what's available. I'd keep him for next year, unless something great comes up. He faded in this series, but if he gets to play more on the perimeter, and he's not the main focus, he does better. He had to play down low all the time and he was expected to take a lot of shots, and that's not his style. Bynum teamed with Gasol would allow him to take advantage of smaller wings and contribute on the boards as a slashing wing, not a true post player. Trust me, he's much more effective that way.
Bynum's health should be the key issue of the summer for them. Even if he comes back strong, though, they might want to look at a legitimate backup center who can board and mix it up inside (Desanga Diop? someone like that?). Other than that, I don't think they have to go crazy. I would trade Radmanovic or Walton, but I doubt other teams are that interested.
Anyway, it was nice to see Boston's guys get it, even if I can't have much sympathy for the franchise or the city right now. They're a likable bunch. Considering everything that's happened, I guess it's the best outcome. I feel for the Phoenix guys, but I can't think of any team besides the Sixers that I could really root for like the group Boston had.
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Onto draft matters.... June is such a great month for hoops. Imagine if the NFL held their draft a week after the Super Bowl happened.
I'm getting worried by all the Beasley stories. I thought Chicago should just take him and forget about everything else. It was too simple. But now, in light of his height revelation, I am starting to back off a little. It's not that I think he'll be a bust, but if he's not a legitimate four, his value goes way down. Bigger guys are harder to replace, and if his real position is the three, he's just not as attractive, even though I'm fairly convinced he can score 20 a night from day one. It would kinda kill what Chicago needs, and Miami already has Marion and Haslem. They can't go that small with all three. So if he's projected as a small forward - which he was by scouts at the beginning of the season - I don't really know if he should be the first pick. The Bulls know Rose will be a solid true point. If they don't know if Beasley will be a solid true PF, maybe that makes it easier for them.
Of course, he'll have plenty of suitors. Miami could deal the pick to Memphis, to get some players and the fifth pick to get Mayo, but then the Wolves could deal the next pick to other teams who also want Mayo. I'm thinking that if Miami wants Mayo more than Beasley, but knows that Mayo won't slip past three or four, then they'll probably just have to accept Minnesota's offer. The Wolves could give Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man, and they have two early second round picks. It's something. Miami gets the guy they want and some extra pieces for depth. Minnesota has a tough tandem with Jefferson and Beasley, and they have the time to figure out which positions those guys should play.
I don't know why Memphis likes Kevin Love at # 5. They could trade down, package that with all their extra pieces for an established star, or go for someone with more promise like Anthony Randolph. Love and Darko together? That's not going anywhere.
This is going to be a great week. There's so many potential moves. Right now, if I had to do a mock (and I love doing these), here's my idea:
1. Bulls - Derrick Rose
2. Wolves (trade) - Michael Beasley
3. Heat (trade) - O.J. Mayo
4. Sonics - Jarryd Bayless
5. Grizzlies - Anthony Randolph (just think about it, please, or fold the team)
6. Knicks - Russell Westbrook
7. Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Bucks - Joe Alexander
9. Bobcats - Brook Lopez
10. Nets - Kevin Love
11. Pacers - D.J. Augustin
12. Kings - Danilo Gallinari (surprised he drops, but he doesn't fit in NJ and they can play him next to Artest for now)
13. Blazers - DeAndre Jordan (they'll trade this to someone)
14. Warriors - Donte Greene
15. Suns - Brandon Rush (if he's gone, they may make some trades)
16. Sixers - Marreese Speights
17. Raptors - Robin Lopez
18. Wizards - Roy Hibbert
19. Cavs - Kostas Koufos
20. Nuggets - JaVale McGee
21. Nets - Darell Arthur
22. Magic - Courtney Lee
23. Jazz - Nicolas Batum
24. Sonics - Serge Ibaka
25. Rockets - Jason Thompson
26. Spurs - Mario Chalmers
27. Hornets - Chris Douglas-Roberts
28. Grizzlies - J.J. Hickson
29. Pistons - Alex Anjia
30. Celtics - Nathan Jawal
Thursday, June 12, 2008
not so fast, comrades
After 3 games, the finals present some interesting subplots. The Celtics are beating up on the Lakers inside, and Kobe looks pissed. I don't think he wanted to be selfish and take 50 shots a game, but now he might have to. Gasol and Odom are disappearing, and only spurts by Vujacic and Radmanovic shooting have helped them at all. Despite everyone in the entire basketball-watching world knowing that the Lakers would come out fired up for game 3, and get more calls going their way, they really didn't play great until the late going. Boston hung in there despite their big guns having off nights. Now I can see them winning a game in LA, which I highly doubted before the series started. Add that to the first two games, and I'm really wondering about the Lakers' chances.
The Lakers did make some nice moves by attacking more and having Kobe guard Rondo, who doesn't shoot a lot outside, but the Celts can counter this by playing House more (which, um, they should have been doing anyway). Pierce is still mysteriously guarded about his injury, so who knows. But even though the Lakers won last night, I'm very impressed by the Celtics. Of course, maybe the Lakers will put it together. And if Odom and Radman aren't doing anything, they should think about Ariza more. He can play D.
Some league-wide thoughts...
The Donaghy scandal took a sharp turn yesterday. I don't know if he's honest, but I always thought the Kings got a raw deal. Of course, so do lots of people. But still, he's waited to make these allegations 6 years after it happened and several months after he was arrested. To do it now shows he's more interested in saying F you to Stern than he is about being honest. He really wanted to stick the knife in his back.... if he had said this when he was first arrested, I might have believed him more. He needs proof before anything can really happen. But Stern looked extra pissed in his comments. I hope there's nothing going on.
I've been thinking about the draft and the different options Chicago (and thus Miami) have. Chicago doesn't need to start over, just move a few guys. Miami does. So when I heard about the trade rumors, I started thinking. I said the Bulls needed to take Beasley because it's hard to find a good big man, and they built their team up around a post player that they just don't have. Also, it's easy for them to move Gooden and Ty Thomas - really easy - to make room for Beasley, but it's nearly impossible to move Hinrich and Hughes to make room for Rose. So if Miami is really willing to deal Wade to move up, they can both benefit from this.
Here's how it could work - along with the right to switch picks, Miami gives up Wade and Udonis Haslem, who is solid but won't help them rebuild. Chicago sends them Gooden (cap filler), Thomas, and Ben Gordon (signed to a deal first). Now look at the potential lineups - Chciago has Noah, Beasley, Deng, Hinrich, and Wade, with Nocioni, Haslem, and Hughes coming off the bench. Miami has Gooden, Thomas, Marion, Rose, and Gordon, without a real center, but that's a fun team to watch. Plus, they can evaluate and will probably have a high pick next year.
I just keep thinking about styles and how people will mesh. Wade dominates the ball, which is why I'm so curious about the Heat initially wanting Rose. I don't know if they fit together. You need a shooter alongside Wade, which might be why the Heat are looking at O. J. Mayo now. He fits with Wade. This trade would create some nice backcourts: Wade would relieve Hinrich of ball handling pressure, and Hinrich could focus more on D and hitting jumpers, which is more his thing. Rose would have the ball in his hand and be flanked by up-tempo players who could fit a good running scheme (Marion, Thomas, Gordon raining outside jumpers). With Beasley inside, and Wade outside, Deng and Hinrich only have to be supporting players, and I think Chicago would be fantastic. That's a devastating offense if they work together. Miami would give up a lot, but then they'd have an exciting team to watch and only one more guy to find. I like this. I like it a lot. Even if the Heat aren't planning on keeping Marion, maybe they can get the Bulls to throw in Deng or Nocioni.
I was really pushing this upon the news of Doug Collins coming back to the Bulls, as he plays slow, half-cort sets. But that's not happening now. I still like it.
If Chicago still takes Rose anyway, that could set off some other stuff. I don't think they can trade Hinrich easily, but I did suggest in my trade deadline column that they might consider sending him and some big guys to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal. Who knows if JO will be healthy again, but it would solve their problems of lacking a dominant big man and finding a taker for Hinrich. If Indiana can get Eric Gordon in the draft, and pair him with Hinrich, that might work. They can get Thomas to be the new PF, and they also might want to give Ike Diogu more minutes. This is a possibility.
Miami would then go after Mayo, since they're not high on Beasley and O.J. fits well with Wade. They could trade down, and I think Memphis would be smart to offer some pieces. Miami would take Mike Miller and/ or Kyle Lowry any day, if that works, and then hope to get Mayo at number five. Maybe they could send something to Minnesota in hopes that the Wolves do not take Mayo.... maybe they take back Antoine Walker's contract? That might help, if that's possible. I can't calculate it right now, but they might work out some sort of agreement. This would help each team.
I guess we'll just have to see in a few weeks.
The Lakers did make some nice moves by attacking more and having Kobe guard Rondo, who doesn't shoot a lot outside, but the Celts can counter this by playing House more (which, um, they should have been doing anyway). Pierce is still mysteriously guarded about his injury, so who knows. But even though the Lakers won last night, I'm very impressed by the Celtics. Of course, maybe the Lakers will put it together. And if Odom and Radman aren't doing anything, they should think about Ariza more. He can play D.
Some league-wide thoughts...
The Donaghy scandal took a sharp turn yesterday. I don't know if he's honest, but I always thought the Kings got a raw deal. Of course, so do lots of people. But still, he's waited to make these allegations 6 years after it happened and several months after he was arrested. To do it now shows he's more interested in saying F you to Stern than he is about being honest. He really wanted to stick the knife in his back.... if he had said this when he was first arrested, I might have believed him more. He needs proof before anything can really happen. But Stern looked extra pissed in his comments. I hope there's nothing going on.
I've been thinking about the draft and the different options Chicago (and thus Miami) have. Chicago doesn't need to start over, just move a few guys. Miami does. So when I heard about the trade rumors, I started thinking. I said the Bulls needed to take Beasley because it's hard to find a good big man, and they built their team up around a post player that they just don't have. Also, it's easy for them to move Gooden and Ty Thomas - really easy - to make room for Beasley, but it's nearly impossible to move Hinrich and Hughes to make room for Rose. So if Miami is really willing to deal Wade to move up, they can both benefit from this.
Here's how it could work - along with the right to switch picks, Miami gives up Wade and Udonis Haslem, who is solid but won't help them rebuild. Chicago sends them Gooden (cap filler), Thomas, and Ben Gordon (signed to a deal first). Now look at the potential lineups - Chciago has Noah, Beasley, Deng, Hinrich, and Wade, with Nocioni, Haslem, and Hughes coming off the bench. Miami has Gooden, Thomas, Marion, Rose, and Gordon, without a real center, but that's a fun team to watch. Plus, they can evaluate and will probably have a high pick next year.
I just keep thinking about styles and how people will mesh. Wade dominates the ball, which is why I'm so curious about the Heat initially wanting Rose. I don't know if they fit together. You need a shooter alongside Wade, which might be why the Heat are looking at O. J. Mayo now. He fits with Wade. This trade would create some nice backcourts: Wade would relieve Hinrich of ball handling pressure, and Hinrich could focus more on D and hitting jumpers, which is more his thing. Rose would have the ball in his hand and be flanked by up-tempo players who could fit a good running scheme (Marion, Thomas, Gordon raining outside jumpers). With Beasley inside, and Wade outside, Deng and Hinrich only have to be supporting players, and I think Chicago would be fantastic. That's a devastating offense if they work together. Miami would give up a lot, but then they'd have an exciting team to watch and only one more guy to find. I like this. I like it a lot. Even if the Heat aren't planning on keeping Marion, maybe they can get the Bulls to throw in Deng or Nocioni.
I was really pushing this upon the news of Doug Collins coming back to the Bulls, as he plays slow, half-cort sets. But that's not happening now. I still like it.
If Chicago still takes Rose anyway, that could set off some other stuff. I don't think they can trade Hinrich easily, but I did suggest in my trade deadline column that they might consider sending him and some big guys to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal. Who knows if JO will be healthy again, but it would solve their problems of lacking a dominant big man and finding a taker for Hinrich. If Indiana can get Eric Gordon in the draft, and pair him with Hinrich, that might work. They can get Thomas to be the new PF, and they also might want to give Ike Diogu more minutes. This is a possibility.
Miami would then go after Mayo, since they're not high on Beasley and O.J. fits well with Wade. They could trade down, and I think Memphis would be smart to offer some pieces. Miami would take Mike Miller and/ or Kyle Lowry any day, if that works, and then hope to get Mayo at number five. Maybe they could send something to Minnesota in hopes that the Wolves do not take Mayo.... maybe they take back Antoine Walker's contract? That might help, if that's possible. I can't calculate it right now, but they might work out some sort of agreement. This would help each team.
I guess we'll just have to see in a few weeks.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
2007 mock draft
I always love doing mock drafts, and I haven't paid this much attention to one since... any? It seems like I knew the top 10 since January, now that we've got college people staying and all. I had a whole list planned out for month, before the lottery went crazy ways, into the great Northwest.
Now, I'm just stumped. It's impossible to do a mock draft, despite knowing most fo the players and all the team needs. Why? Trades. There are just way too many possibilites before tonight. Who does what? Which teams pull it off? Boston, Chicago, Memphis, and Phoenix could all go different ways. So could Minnesota or Philly. Or even Charlotte. Anyone could be making deals and this it's impossible to make a complete first round. The teams picking could all switch around so easily.
Here's my morning-of take, which will undoubtedly be thrown askew by all the moves, or just from me being horribly wrong.
I'm watching you, Blazers and Sixers. Please do the right thing for once (And if that's taking Al Thornton and relaxing, I won't argue. For now.)
1 PORTLAND
Greg Oden7-0 C, Ohio State
2 SEATTLE
Kevin Durant6-10 SF, Texas
3 ATLANTA
Al Horford6-10 PF, Florida
4 MEMPHIS
Joakim Noah7-0 PF, Florida
5 BOSTON (will trade this one away)
Mike Conley6-1 PG, Ohio State
6 MILWAUKEE
Jeff Green6-10 SF, Georgetown
7 MINNESOTA (possibly traded)
Brandan Wright6-10 PF, North Carolina
8 CHARLOTTE
Corey Brewer6-8 SG, Florida
9 CHICAGO (possibly traded)
Yi Jianlian7-0 PF, China
10 SACRAMENTO
Spencer Hawes7-1 C, Washington
11 ATLANTA
Acie Law6-4 PG, Texas A&M
12 PHILADELPHIA (if they can't move up)
Al Thornton6-7 SF, Florida State
13 NEW ORLEANS
Nick Young6-7 SG, USC
14 LA CLIPPERS
Julian Wright6-9 SF, Kansas
15 DETROIT
Rodney Stuckey6-5 SG, Eastern Wash.
16 WASHINGTON
Jason Smith7-0 PF, Colorado State
17 NEW JERSEY
Josh McRoberts6-10 PF, Duke
18 GOLDEN STATE (likely traded)
Thaddeus Young6-8 SF, Georgia Tech
19 LA LAKERS
Gabe Pruitt6-4 PG, USC
20 MIAMI
Javaris Crittenton6-5 PG, Georgia Tech
21 PHILADELPHIA
Sean Williams6-10 C, Boston College
22 CHARLOTTE
Tiago Splitter7-0 PF, Brazil
23 NEW YORK
Daequan Cook6-6 SG, Ohio State
24 PHOENIX (possibly traded)
Marco Belinelli6-6 SG, Italy
25 UTAH
Arron Afflalo6-5 SG, UCLA
26 HOUSTON
Glen Davis6-9 PF, LSU
27 DETROIT
Derrick Byars6-7 SF, Vanderbilt
28 SAN ANTONIO
Rudy Fernandez6-6 SG, Spain
29 PHOENIX (possibly traded)
Petteri Koponen6-4 PG, Finland
30 PHILADELPHIA
Marc Gasol7-0 C, Spain
HONORABLE MENTION: Don't feel bad, Marcus Williams, Morris Almond, and Alando Tucker. Those last few teams need big men and all the wings in this draft are being pushed down. You'll be steals in the second round.
Now, I'm just stumped. It's impossible to do a mock draft, despite knowing most fo the players and all the team needs. Why? Trades. There are just way too many possibilites before tonight. Who does what? Which teams pull it off? Boston, Chicago, Memphis, and Phoenix could all go different ways. So could Minnesota or Philly. Or even Charlotte. Anyone could be making deals and this it's impossible to make a complete first round. The teams picking could all switch around so easily.
Here's my morning-of take, which will undoubtedly be thrown askew by all the moves, or just from me being horribly wrong.
I'm watching you, Blazers and Sixers. Please do the right thing for once (And if that's taking Al Thornton and relaxing, I won't argue. For now.)
1 PORTLAND
Greg Oden7-0 C, Ohio State
2 SEATTLE
Kevin Durant6-10 SF, Texas
3 ATLANTA
Al Horford6-10 PF, Florida
4 MEMPHIS
Joakim Noah7-0 PF, Florida
5 BOSTON (will trade this one away)
Mike Conley6-1 PG, Ohio State
6 MILWAUKEE
Jeff Green6-10 SF, Georgetown
7 MINNESOTA (possibly traded)
Brandan Wright6-10 PF, North Carolina
8 CHARLOTTE
Corey Brewer6-8 SG, Florida
9 CHICAGO (possibly traded)
Yi Jianlian7-0 PF, China
10 SACRAMENTO
Spencer Hawes7-1 C, Washington
11 ATLANTA
Acie Law6-4 PG, Texas A&M
12 PHILADELPHIA (if they can't move up)
Al Thornton6-7 SF, Florida State
13 NEW ORLEANS
Nick Young6-7 SG, USC
14 LA CLIPPERS
Julian Wright6-9 SF, Kansas
15 DETROIT
Rodney Stuckey6-5 SG, Eastern Wash.
16 WASHINGTON
Jason Smith7-0 PF, Colorado State
17 NEW JERSEY
Josh McRoberts6-10 PF, Duke
18 GOLDEN STATE (likely traded)
Thaddeus Young6-8 SF, Georgia Tech
19 LA LAKERS
Gabe Pruitt6-4 PG, USC
20 MIAMI
Javaris Crittenton6-5 PG, Georgia Tech
21 PHILADELPHIA
Sean Williams6-10 C, Boston College
22 CHARLOTTE
Tiago Splitter7-0 PF, Brazil
23 NEW YORK
Daequan Cook6-6 SG, Ohio State
24 PHOENIX (possibly traded)
Marco Belinelli6-6 SG, Italy
25 UTAH
Arron Afflalo6-5 SG, UCLA
26 HOUSTON
Glen Davis6-9 PF, LSU
27 DETROIT
Derrick Byars6-7 SF, Vanderbilt
28 SAN ANTONIO
Rudy Fernandez6-6 SG, Spain
29 PHOENIX (possibly traded)
Petteri Koponen6-4 PG, Finland
30 PHILADELPHIA
Marc Gasol7-0 C, Spain
HONORABLE MENTION: Don't feel bad, Marcus Williams, Morris Almond, and Alando Tucker. Those last few teams need big men and all the wings in this draft are being pushed down. You'll be steals in the second round.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
trade talk heats up
Big four-teamer rumored. Can this happen? Let's see....
Boston Celtics
Incoming Players
Jermaine O'Neal Salary: $18,084,000 Years Remaining
Outgoing Players: Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Ryan Gomes, Wally Szczerbiak
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Troy Hudson Salary: $5,603,000 Years Remaining: 4, Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3
Outgoing Players: Andrew Bynum, Brian Cook, Kwame Brown, Lamar Odom
Indiana Pacers get BOSTON'S # 5 pick
Incoming Players
Gerald Green Salary: $1,347,000 Years Remaining: 2, Kwame Brown Salary: $8,287,500 Years Remaining: 2, Theo Ratliff Salary: $11,666,666 Years Remaining: 2, Ryan Gomes Salary: $664,209 Years Remaining: 2,
Outgoing Players: Jermaine O'Neal
Minnesota Timberwolves get LA's # 19 PICK
Incoming Players
Andrew Bynum Salary: $2,030,280 Years Remaining: 2, Brian Cook Salary: $1,817,141 Years Remaining: 3, Lamar Odom Salary: $12,348,596 Years Remaining: 3, Wally Szczerbiak Salary: $11,775,000 Years Remaining: 3,
Outgoing Players: Troy Hudson, Kevin Garnett
Well, that’s not entirely fair to the Pacers or Wolves. One of them is getting screwed either way in this deal. And now, according to all sources, talks are over for the mega-deal.
But if the Lakers and Minnesota are still talking, it’s not as impossible as you think. Let’s see here…
Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players
Sasha Vujacic Salary: $973,920 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.3 REB: 1.5 AST: 0.9 PER: 11.67
Bernard Robinson Salary: $1,000,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.0 REB: 1.5 AST: 0.6 PER: 7.59
Hassan Adams Salary: $412,718 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.9 REB: 1.3 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.77
Andrew Bynum Salary: $2,030,280 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 7.8 REB: 5.9 AST: 1.1 PER: 15.44
Mile Ilic Salary: $800,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 0.0 REB: 0.2 AST: 0.0 PER: -48.72
Vladimir Radmanovic Salary: $5,215,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 6.6 REB: 3.3 AST: 1.2 PER: 11.02
Josh Boone Salary: $1,053,960 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.2 REB: 2.9 AST: 0.2 PER: 14.62
Richard Jefferson Salary: $11,200,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 16.3 REB: 4.4 AST: 2.7 PER: 13.88
Clifford Robinson Salary: $1,600,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.1 REB: 2.4 AST: 1.0 PER: 5.96
Kwame Brown Salary: $8,287,500 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 8.4 REB: 6.0 AST: 1.8 PER: 13.79
Maurice Evans Salary: $1,620,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 8.4 REB: 2.9 AST: 1.0 PER: 12.14
Outgoing Players: Marko Jaric, Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, Troy Hudson, Kevin Garnett
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Brian Cook Salary: $1,817,141 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 6.9 REB: 3.3 AST: 1.0 PER: 14.83
Lamar Odom Salary: $12,348,596 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 15.9 REB: 9.8 AST: 4.8 PER: 16.20
Trenton Hassell Salary: $4,350,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 6.7 REB: 3.2 AST: 2.7 PER: 9.71
Outgoing Players: Bernard Robinson, Hassan Adams, Mile Ilic, Josh Boone, Richard Jefferson, Clifford Robinson
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Marko Jaric Salary: $5,525,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 5.3 REB: 2.6 AST: 2.1 PER: 9.57
Mark Blount Salary: $7,288,165 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 12.3 REB: 6.2 AST: 0.8 PER: 12.73
Troy Hudson Salary: $5,603,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 5.9 REB: 1.4 AST: 2.1 PER: 10.74
Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 22.4 REB: 12.8 AST: 4.1 PER: 24.20
Outgoing Players: Sasha Vujacic, Brian Cook, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Vladimir Radmanovic, Kwame Brown, Maurice Evans
Everyone has been saying that this package has no value for Minnesota. And yeah, Odom and Kwame don’t. But they have value outside of themselves. See, Kwame’s contract is up soon. In this weird NBA landscape of salary cap and space concerns and luxury taxes and whatnot, that makes him a valuable asset. They can dump some of their bad contracts on LA in exchange for a good one. This is an addition-by-subtraction trade, if you will. And seeing as to how many bad people they have, they’d better start getting rid of them.
And as far as Odom goes, it’s true that Minnesota doesn’t want him. He wants no part of them either. But I can guarantee other teams (Eastern teams) would be willing to take a crack at him. He can play the four in the East and not be such a liability. Teams like the Sixers, Knicks, and Nets, who have gaping holes at forward, would definitely take a long look at him. The Wolves won’t get back a star, very likely, but they’ll be able to get good contracts, draft picks, or young guys. And thus, Odom has a little value.
Really, it’s not so much that the Lakers have to convince Minnesota that Odom would be good for them. They both know that’s not true. They need to convince Minnesota that other teams would want him. Maybe they do get a third team involved from the East. Or maybe Minnesota just picks him up and then deals him later. They’ve got options. Then they have Foye and Bynum to build around, with their high pick this year, maybe a mid pick they get in that trade, and the Lakers’ pick. It’s not great, but it’s a start. And they use this trade to dump all their horrible, awful, overpriced guys. They need to start over, and they know KG is going to leave next year for nothing. So why not start now and get something in return?
I keep bringing up the Nets in both the KG and Marion deals as a potential partner because they’ve been looking for a four man ever since Kenyon Martin left. Odom is a New Yorker and would fit in their uptempo system. Since they didn’t trade Kidd or Carter, they’re obviously still interesting in competing and spending cash. They’d take a flier on Odom. His best year was in Miami, playing the East and running in an uptempo system. Philly has picks, and Jersey would love to try it.
Hell, they might even give up Richard Jefferson. It’s easier to pick up wings, especially in this draft, where there are a TON (but not so many big guys). The Nets getting a Nick Young or Thaddeus Young or Derrick Byars or Rodney Stuckey at 16 to help replace Jefferson seems a lot more palatable to me than trying to pick up a decent four man at that spot. They have to roll the dice, because Kidd is almost done and they can’t really compete with their current roster. Just a few more tweaks, though, and they’re back in it. Did I mention the East (particularly their division) sucks? Rod Thorn, paging Mr. Thorn.
By the way, the way this trade is laid out, for cap reasons, the Lakers trade both Cook and Radmanovic, which I haven’t projected before, but the Wolves don’t really need or want the Radman, so they’ll figure out a follow up trade (you can do this after a couple months, or also by waiving people) to get him back and give the Wolves more relief. Maybe they draft a guy in the second round on behalf of the Wolves, sign him, and then trade him. In any case, Minnesota picks up a lot of guys (and will probably waive half of them) whose contracts are up soon,
UPDATE: Yeah, umm, so an hour after I posted this, word got out that the Lakers-Wolves talks had broken down. Now, apparently, it’s back to Phoenix again, with the Celtics throwing themselves in the ring…. Of course, Marion isn’t playing there either. Once again, I think they could convince the Nets or Sixers to get involved in this. Marion might like them better than Boston, and he’s more reliable than Lamar Odom, who has the key problem Minnesota had with the deal. But then, who does Boston get?
Phoenix gets KG. Minnesota gets Boston’s # 5 pick, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair (ironic with his Marbury connections), Atlanta’s pick next year from Phoenix, and all those soon-to-be expiring guys from Jersey. Jersey gets Marion. Boston gets… Richard Jefferson? Maybe they could convince the Nets to give up Nenad Kristic instead. That would be a decent move, because he’s shown more than a project like Brandan Wright or Yi. But would they? And if not, is Jefferson worth giving up the fifth pick? When they could get Corey Brewer there or even later?
If the Sixers or Knicks are involved, it’s still tough. The Sixers can only give up draft picks, really, and they aren’t as high. The Knicks could give you a bunch of overpriced and only decent guys, unless the C’s really think Channing Frye is worth it. I doubt it.
So this trade is looking rough, too, because the Celtics must find a new destination for Marion, and the teams most interested can’t offer much.
And now those old Indiana-Lakers talks are back up. Once again, I could see these teams (Knicks, Sixers, Nets) getting involved because they’d take Odom. And that kills the chances of Marion going to any of those places (these teams have more to offer the Pacers than the Celtics).
Let’s look at who might be interested in Marion, since the Celtics appear to be the only people having problems with this deal. The problem is that the Celtics need to find someone that 1. is interested, 2. has the right people, and 3. can convince Marion to play there. That’s a lot to demand. Who has the best shot?
ATLANTA – Marvin Williams, # 11 pick. Not terrible, but would he play there?
CLEVELAND – Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, whatever. Meh. Cavs would certainly enjoy this, especially if they could convince C’s to throw in Delonte West, or work out some sort of sign and trade with Anderson Varejao. But this is not so good for Boston.
CHICAGO – Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Selfosha, # 9. Not bad, but do the Bulls want to do it?
DALLAS – Josh Howard, Devin Harris, Maurice Ager. Meh. Need a big guy or decent pick.
GOLDEN STATE – Jason Richardson, Al Harrington, Patrick O’Bryant, # 18. Not bad, but the Warriors are more interested in the fifth pick. Still, this might be worth looking into. It’s more quantity than quality, but it’s something.
NEW YORK – Channing Frye or David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Quentin Richardson, # 21. Even if they could get Lee and Balkman, Isiah’s only claims to fame, that’s not much. These two old rivals both just get really mediocre… they’ll make the playoffs, probably, but have no chance of doing anything.
NEW JERSEY – Nenad Kristic (maybe) OR Richard Jefferson, # 16, expiring contracts. Kristic and others would help. Jefferson, probably not. He’s a decent addition to Pierce, but the other teams can all do better. If the C’s throw in Gerald Green and Ryan Gomes, they’d probably be able to wing Kristic. Maybe…. the Nets would need to be able to resign Mikki Moore to feel better.
PORTLAND – Zach Randolph, spare parts. Interesting… don’t you think Portland kind of owes Boston after fleecing them for Brandon Roy last year? If the Blazers take Oden, wouldn’t this be a decent follow up move? Marion may or may not like this… he’d be the best player for now, but he’s got to share the limelight with two likable young guys. In Portland. Hmmm…
SACRAMENTO – Ron Artest, # 9 (maybe), etc. I already discussed Marion for Artest earlier, but that was just between the Suns and Kings. Boston may or may not consider this based on the obvious Artest worries. And does either guy like the new digs?
SEATTLE – Rashard Lewis (sign and trade), Chris Wilcox. The Sonics would be fun to watch, but Marion and Lewis have to be sold on new teams. I’m not convinced. And isn’t Lewis just a slightly better version of Wally, or someone they could get at number 5?
That’s about it. I think he has to go to one of those teams. Others don’t have enough or won’t be able to please him. Utah, Charlotte, Memphis, and Milwaukee have some pieces, but I don’t think he wants any part of those teams. San Antonio, Miami, Orlando, Houston, and the Clippers would be nice, but they have nothing to offer.
SECOND UPDATE: Okay, now the Suns ARE apparently willing to give up Stoudemire for Garnett. But they're not doing it straight up, they're making another team get involved. I guess they feel bad sending Amare to the lakes, so they'd like to rerout him somehwere nice.
And now that place is....
ATLANTA????
Wow, the Hawks, for all their utter failures, could have this fall in their lap. Apparently, Minnesota will let them take Stoudemire in the deal for the 3 and 11 picks. Isn't he worth more than that? Whatever, they have loads of cap space, so Minnesota can take Horford, another good player at 11, and get rid of some bad contracts, conceivably. That's fair. That's the best deal they've had yet for KG. And I think it happens if the Suns give in, because, if Minnesota likes it, I'm sure Atlanta is estatic. Billy Knight is crying somewhere on his knees, like Tim Robbins in Shawshank.
One interesting quirk here: I'm sure the Suns might include their pick they have from Atlanta next year in the deal. It's one of their best chips. But if Atlanta is now involved in the deal, and they get Amare, they'll be much better. Playoff material, very possibly. So that pick wouldn't be as nice... thus, they're making a deal in which the deal itself devalues one of its own assets... strange.
Maybe they hope McHale doesn't notice the irony there.
Let's see how the Hawks and their big cap space can help the Suns and Wolves get this done. I think they might even trade one of their top youngsters, they're so happy Amare is here... that might convince the Wolves to not take the 11 pick, so they can still get a point guard liek Acie Law:
Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players
Speedy Claxton Salary: $6,854,546 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 5.3 REB: 1.9 AST: 4.4 PER: 7.37
Lorenzen Wright Salary: $3,250,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.6 REB: 3.2 AST: 0.6 PER: 6.65
Marvin Williams Salary: $4,174,800 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 13.1 REB: 5.3 AST: 1.9 PER: 12.26
Solomon Jones Salary: $675,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 3.3 REB: 2.3 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.22
Tyronn Lue Salary: $3,500,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 11.4 REB: 1.9 AST: 3.6 PER: 14.16
Josh Childress Salary: $2,863,920 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 13.0 REB: 6.2 AST: 2.3 PER: 16.24
Shelden Williams Salary: $2,952,840 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 5.5 REB: 5.4 AST: 0.5 PER: 12.39
Kurt Thomas Salary: $7,821,482 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.6 REB: 5.7 AST: 0.4 PER: 11.37
Outgoing Players: Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, Kevin Garnett
Phoenix Suns
Incoming Players
Salim Stoudamire Salary: $729,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 7.7 REB: 1.2 AST: 1.0 PER: 11.40
Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 22.4 REB: 12.8 AST: 4.1 PER: 24.20
Outgoing Players: Marcus Banks, Amare Stoudemire, Kurt Thomas
Atlanta Hawks
Incoming Players
Marcus Banks Salary: $3,600,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 4.9 REB: 0.8 AST: 1.3 PER: 11.41
Amare Stoudemire Salary: $12,455,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 20.4 REB: 9.6 AST: 1.0 PER: 23.15
Mark Blount Salary: $7,288,165 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 12.3 REB: 6.2 AST: 0.8 PER: 12.73
Trenton Hassell Salary: $4,350,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 6.7 REB: 3.2 AST: 2.7 PER: 9.71
PICKS: Minnesota gets # 3, 22, and Atlanta's first next year
Outgoing Players: Salim Stoudamire, Speedy Claxton, Lorenzen Wright, Marvin Williams, Solomon Jones, Tyronn Lue, Josh Childress, Shelden Williams
There. That could work. Minnesota at least gets rid of Blount and Hassell, gets soem nice young guys, and guys that will be up in 2 years. Claxton is overpriced, but they could use a veteran backup to Foye. If they could find takers for Troy Hudson and Marko Jaric, they'd be in good shape.
But does any of this happen? Do the Suns really give up Amare? Do the Wolves allow a trade to happen where Stoudemire for Garnett is the main part and yet they don't get either? Are the Hawks stupid enough to turn even this down?
I guess we'll find out Thursday.
Boston Celtics
Incoming Players
Jermaine O'Neal Salary: $18,084,000 Years Remaining
Outgoing Players: Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Ryan Gomes, Wally Szczerbiak
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Troy Hudson Salary: $5,603,000 Years Remaining: 4, Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3
Outgoing Players: Andrew Bynum, Brian Cook, Kwame Brown, Lamar Odom
Indiana Pacers get BOSTON'S # 5 pick
Incoming Players
Gerald Green Salary: $1,347,000 Years Remaining: 2, Kwame Brown Salary: $8,287,500 Years Remaining: 2, Theo Ratliff Salary: $11,666,666 Years Remaining: 2, Ryan Gomes Salary: $664,209 Years Remaining: 2,
Outgoing Players: Jermaine O'Neal
Minnesota Timberwolves get LA's # 19 PICK
Incoming Players
Andrew Bynum Salary: $2,030,280 Years Remaining: 2, Brian Cook Salary: $1,817,141 Years Remaining: 3, Lamar Odom Salary: $12,348,596 Years Remaining: 3, Wally Szczerbiak Salary: $11,775,000 Years Remaining: 3,
Outgoing Players: Troy Hudson, Kevin Garnett
Well, that’s not entirely fair to the Pacers or Wolves. One of them is getting screwed either way in this deal. And now, according to all sources, talks are over for the mega-deal.
But if the Lakers and Minnesota are still talking, it’s not as impossible as you think. Let’s see here…
Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players
Sasha Vujacic Salary: $973,920 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.3 REB: 1.5 AST: 0.9 PER: 11.67
Bernard Robinson Salary: $1,000,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.0 REB: 1.5 AST: 0.6 PER: 7.59
Hassan Adams Salary: $412,718 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.9 REB: 1.3 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.77
Andrew Bynum Salary: $2,030,280 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 7.8 REB: 5.9 AST: 1.1 PER: 15.44
Mile Ilic Salary: $800,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 0.0 REB: 0.2 AST: 0.0 PER: -48.72
Vladimir Radmanovic Salary: $5,215,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 6.6 REB: 3.3 AST: 1.2 PER: 11.02
Josh Boone Salary: $1,053,960 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.2 REB: 2.9 AST: 0.2 PER: 14.62
Richard Jefferson Salary: $11,200,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 16.3 REB: 4.4 AST: 2.7 PER: 13.88
Clifford Robinson Salary: $1,600,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.1 REB: 2.4 AST: 1.0 PER: 5.96
Kwame Brown Salary: $8,287,500 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 8.4 REB: 6.0 AST: 1.8 PER: 13.79
Maurice Evans Salary: $1,620,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 8.4 REB: 2.9 AST: 1.0 PER: 12.14
Outgoing Players: Marko Jaric, Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, Troy Hudson, Kevin Garnett
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Brian Cook Salary: $1,817,141 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 6.9 REB: 3.3 AST: 1.0 PER: 14.83
Lamar Odom Salary: $12,348,596 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 15.9 REB: 9.8 AST: 4.8 PER: 16.20
Trenton Hassell Salary: $4,350,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 6.7 REB: 3.2 AST: 2.7 PER: 9.71
Outgoing Players: Bernard Robinson, Hassan Adams, Mile Ilic, Josh Boone, Richard Jefferson, Clifford Robinson
Los Angeles Lakers
Incoming Players
Marko Jaric Salary: $5,525,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 5.3 REB: 2.6 AST: 2.1 PER: 9.57
Mark Blount Salary: $7,288,165 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 12.3 REB: 6.2 AST: 0.8 PER: 12.73
Troy Hudson Salary: $5,603,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 5.9 REB: 1.4 AST: 2.1 PER: 10.74
Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 22.4 REB: 12.8 AST: 4.1 PER: 24.20
Outgoing Players: Sasha Vujacic, Brian Cook, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Vladimir Radmanovic, Kwame Brown, Maurice Evans
Everyone has been saying that this package has no value for Minnesota. And yeah, Odom and Kwame don’t. But they have value outside of themselves. See, Kwame’s contract is up soon. In this weird NBA landscape of salary cap and space concerns and luxury taxes and whatnot, that makes him a valuable asset. They can dump some of their bad contracts on LA in exchange for a good one. This is an addition-by-subtraction trade, if you will. And seeing as to how many bad people they have, they’d better start getting rid of them.
And as far as Odom goes, it’s true that Minnesota doesn’t want him. He wants no part of them either. But I can guarantee other teams (Eastern teams) would be willing to take a crack at him. He can play the four in the East and not be such a liability. Teams like the Sixers, Knicks, and Nets, who have gaping holes at forward, would definitely take a long look at him. The Wolves won’t get back a star, very likely, but they’ll be able to get good contracts, draft picks, or young guys. And thus, Odom has a little value.
Really, it’s not so much that the Lakers have to convince Minnesota that Odom would be good for them. They both know that’s not true. They need to convince Minnesota that other teams would want him. Maybe they do get a third team involved from the East. Or maybe Minnesota just picks him up and then deals him later. They’ve got options. Then they have Foye and Bynum to build around, with their high pick this year, maybe a mid pick they get in that trade, and the Lakers’ pick. It’s not great, but it’s a start. And they use this trade to dump all their horrible, awful, overpriced guys. They need to start over, and they know KG is going to leave next year for nothing. So why not start now and get something in return?
I keep bringing up the Nets in both the KG and Marion deals as a potential partner because they’ve been looking for a four man ever since Kenyon Martin left. Odom is a New Yorker and would fit in their uptempo system. Since they didn’t trade Kidd or Carter, they’re obviously still interesting in competing and spending cash. They’d take a flier on Odom. His best year was in Miami, playing the East and running in an uptempo system. Philly has picks, and Jersey would love to try it.
Hell, they might even give up Richard Jefferson. It’s easier to pick up wings, especially in this draft, where there are a TON (but not so many big guys). The Nets getting a Nick Young or Thaddeus Young or Derrick Byars or Rodney Stuckey at 16 to help replace Jefferson seems a lot more palatable to me than trying to pick up a decent four man at that spot. They have to roll the dice, because Kidd is almost done and they can’t really compete with their current roster. Just a few more tweaks, though, and they’re back in it. Did I mention the East (particularly their division) sucks? Rod Thorn, paging Mr. Thorn.
By the way, the way this trade is laid out, for cap reasons, the Lakers trade both Cook and Radmanovic, which I haven’t projected before, but the Wolves don’t really need or want the Radman, so they’ll figure out a follow up trade (you can do this after a couple months, or also by waiving people) to get him back and give the Wolves more relief. Maybe they draft a guy in the second round on behalf of the Wolves, sign him, and then trade him. In any case, Minnesota picks up a lot of guys (and will probably waive half of them) whose contracts are up soon,
UPDATE: Yeah, umm, so an hour after I posted this, word got out that the Lakers-Wolves talks had broken down. Now, apparently, it’s back to Phoenix again, with the Celtics throwing themselves in the ring…. Of course, Marion isn’t playing there either. Once again, I think they could convince the Nets or Sixers to get involved in this. Marion might like them better than Boston, and he’s more reliable than Lamar Odom, who has the key problem Minnesota had with the deal. But then, who does Boston get?
Phoenix gets KG. Minnesota gets Boston’s # 5 pick, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair (ironic with his Marbury connections), Atlanta’s pick next year from Phoenix, and all those soon-to-be expiring guys from Jersey. Jersey gets Marion. Boston gets… Richard Jefferson? Maybe they could convince the Nets to give up Nenad Kristic instead. That would be a decent move, because he’s shown more than a project like Brandan Wright or Yi. But would they? And if not, is Jefferson worth giving up the fifth pick? When they could get Corey Brewer there or even later?
If the Sixers or Knicks are involved, it’s still tough. The Sixers can only give up draft picks, really, and they aren’t as high. The Knicks could give you a bunch of overpriced and only decent guys, unless the C’s really think Channing Frye is worth it. I doubt it.
So this trade is looking rough, too, because the Celtics must find a new destination for Marion, and the teams most interested can’t offer much.
And now those old Indiana-Lakers talks are back up. Once again, I could see these teams (Knicks, Sixers, Nets) getting involved because they’d take Odom. And that kills the chances of Marion going to any of those places (these teams have more to offer the Pacers than the Celtics).
Let’s look at who might be interested in Marion, since the Celtics appear to be the only people having problems with this deal. The problem is that the Celtics need to find someone that 1. is interested, 2. has the right people, and 3. can convince Marion to play there. That’s a lot to demand. Who has the best shot?
ATLANTA – Marvin Williams, # 11 pick. Not terrible, but would he play there?
CLEVELAND – Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, whatever. Meh. Cavs would certainly enjoy this, especially if they could convince C’s to throw in Delonte West, or work out some sort of sign and trade with Anderson Varejao. But this is not so good for Boston.
CHICAGO – Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Selfosha, # 9. Not bad, but do the Bulls want to do it?
DALLAS – Josh Howard, Devin Harris, Maurice Ager. Meh. Need a big guy or decent pick.
GOLDEN STATE – Jason Richardson, Al Harrington, Patrick O’Bryant, # 18. Not bad, but the Warriors are more interested in the fifth pick. Still, this might be worth looking into. It’s more quantity than quality, but it’s something.
NEW YORK – Channing Frye or David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Quentin Richardson, # 21. Even if they could get Lee and Balkman, Isiah’s only claims to fame, that’s not much. These two old rivals both just get really mediocre… they’ll make the playoffs, probably, but have no chance of doing anything.
NEW JERSEY – Nenad Kristic (maybe) OR Richard Jefferson, # 16, expiring contracts. Kristic and others would help. Jefferson, probably not. He’s a decent addition to Pierce, but the other teams can all do better. If the C’s throw in Gerald Green and Ryan Gomes, they’d probably be able to wing Kristic. Maybe…. the Nets would need to be able to resign Mikki Moore to feel better.
PORTLAND – Zach Randolph, spare parts. Interesting… don’t you think Portland kind of owes Boston after fleecing them for Brandon Roy last year? If the Blazers take Oden, wouldn’t this be a decent follow up move? Marion may or may not like this… he’d be the best player for now, but he’s got to share the limelight with two likable young guys. In Portland. Hmmm…
SACRAMENTO – Ron Artest, # 9 (maybe), etc. I already discussed Marion for Artest earlier, but that was just between the Suns and Kings. Boston may or may not consider this based on the obvious Artest worries. And does either guy like the new digs?
SEATTLE – Rashard Lewis (sign and trade), Chris Wilcox. The Sonics would be fun to watch, but Marion and Lewis have to be sold on new teams. I’m not convinced. And isn’t Lewis just a slightly better version of Wally, or someone they could get at number 5?
That’s about it. I think he has to go to one of those teams. Others don’t have enough or won’t be able to please him. Utah, Charlotte, Memphis, and Milwaukee have some pieces, but I don’t think he wants any part of those teams. San Antonio, Miami, Orlando, Houston, and the Clippers would be nice, but they have nothing to offer.
SECOND UPDATE: Okay, now the Suns ARE apparently willing to give up Stoudemire for Garnett. But they're not doing it straight up, they're making another team get involved. I guess they feel bad sending Amare to the lakes, so they'd like to rerout him somehwere nice.
And now that place is....
ATLANTA????
Wow, the Hawks, for all their utter failures, could have this fall in their lap. Apparently, Minnesota will let them take Stoudemire in the deal for the 3 and 11 picks. Isn't he worth more than that? Whatever, they have loads of cap space, so Minnesota can take Horford, another good player at 11, and get rid of some bad contracts, conceivably. That's fair. That's the best deal they've had yet for KG. And I think it happens if the Suns give in, because, if Minnesota likes it, I'm sure Atlanta is estatic. Billy Knight is crying somewhere on his knees, like Tim Robbins in Shawshank.
One interesting quirk here: I'm sure the Suns might include their pick they have from Atlanta next year in the deal. It's one of their best chips. But if Atlanta is now involved in the deal, and they get Amare, they'll be much better. Playoff material, very possibly. So that pick wouldn't be as nice... thus, they're making a deal in which the deal itself devalues one of its own assets... strange.
Maybe they hope McHale doesn't notice the irony there.
Let's see how the Hawks and their big cap space can help the Suns and Wolves get this done. I think they might even trade one of their top youngsters, they're so happy Amare is here... that might convince the Wolves to not take the 11 pick, so they can still get a point guard liek Acie Law:
Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players
Speedy Claxton Salary: $6,854,546 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 5.3 REB: 1.9 AST: 4.4 PER: 7.37
Lorenzen Wright Salary: $3,250,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 2.6 REB: 3.2 AST: 0.6 PER: 6.65
Marvin Williams Salary: $4,174,800 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 13.1 REB: 5.3 AST: 1.9 PER: 12.26
Solomon Jones Salary: $675,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 3.3 REB: 2.3 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.22
Tyronn Lue Salary: $3,500,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 11.4 REB: 1.9 AST: 3.6 PER: 14.16
Josh Childress Salary: $2,863,920 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 13.0 REB: 6.2 AST: 2.3 PER: 16.24
Shelden Williams Salary: $2,952,840 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 5.5 REB: 5.4 AST: 0.5 PER: 12.39
Kurt Thomas Salary: $7,821,482 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 4.6 REB: 5.7 AST: 0.4 PER: 11.37
Outgoing Players: Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, Kevin Garnett
Phoenix Suns
Incoming Players
Salim Stoudamire Salary: $729,000 Years Remaining: 2PTS: 7.7 REB: 1.2 AST: 1.0 PER: 11.40
Kevin Garnett Salary: $21,000,000 Years Remaining: 3PTS: 22.4 REB: 12.8 AST: 4.1 PER: 24.20
Outgoing Players: Marcus Banks, Amare Stoudemire, Kurt Thomas
Atlanta Hawks
Incoming Players
Marcus Banks Salary: $3,600,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 4.9 REB: 0.8 AST: 1.3 PER: 11.41
Amare Stoudemire Salary: $12,455,000 Years Remaining: 5PTS: 20.4 REB: 9.6 AST: 1.0 PER: 23.15
Mark Blount Salary: $7,288,165 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 12.3 REB: 6.2 AST: 0.8 PER: 12.73
Trenton Hassell Salary: $4,350,000 Years Remaining: 4PTS: 6.7 REB: 3.2 AST: 2.7 PER: 9.71
PICKS: Minnesota gets # 3, 22, and Atlanta's first next year
Outgoing Players: Salim Stoudamire, Speedy Claxton, Lorenzen Wright, Marvin Williams, Solomon Jones, Tyronn Lue, Josh Childress, Shelden Williams
There. That could work. Minnesota at least gets rid of Blount and Hassell, gets soem nice young guys, and guys that will be up in 2 years. Claxton is overpriced, but they could use a veteran backup to Foye. If they could find takers for Troy Hudson and Marko Jaric, they'd be in good shape.
But does any of this happen? Do the Suns really give up Amare? Do the Wolves allow a trade to happen where Stoudemire for Garnett is the main part and yet they don't get either? Are the Hawks stupid enough to turn even this down?
I guess we'll find out Thursday.
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