well this is unplanned

Orlando.

Seriously.

That was one of the more intriguing playoff series in a while. I did not see it coming. The Magic took down the Cavs right away and didn't let go. They are dependant on shooting (a usual killer at some point) but they haven't been cold yet. They struggled with the Sixers in the first round and yet managed to embarrass Cleveland. HOW DOES THAT WORK??

I'm confused. Looking at their series vs. how the Lakers struggled against Houston and Denver, it seems that Orlando is in a good spot. I said before the season that Andrew Bynum was the key, but the Lakers have done a lot without him. He might be useful in this series, if he can push Howard a bit, but he hasn't shown much lately. It seems the Lakers wouldn't be so unfazed by Orlando's small lineup, because they can just use Odom, but the Cavs mysteriously failed to do the same thing with LeBron.

Jameer Nelson's pending return might be key. The Lakers struggle with quick scoring point guards. They have for years. If he's even decent, that could be a problem. Even Rafer Alston could take advantage of these guys.

Where to go? I think the Lakers have more of a sense of urgency. I also think that Phil Jackson is smart enough to make sure that they don't double team too much and leave shooters open like other teams did against Orlando. I know Kobe is angry over what happened last year and knows that, even though his team is fairly young, he may not have more chances. But I also know that a team that got beat up down low last year is going to struggle with Howard. Pietrus can give Kobe trouble, and Nelson could terrorize them.

I guess I'm going with the Lakers in a high-scoring series. I want to pick against them, but I just don't see Orlando pulling more tricks out. Lakers in 7.




And on a side note...

I feel good for the Clippers, even though most people have given up on them. I just hope there's a way they can get new management. Would it be terrible if someone overtook them like a South American country? Guerilla style? Eventually, Donald Sterling has to do something that lands him in jail, right? This is a talented team. It really is. I have a feeling that the commissioner will realize that, in this time of economic woe, he has the potential for two successful franchises in LA and some cash to be made. If he doesn't, he's missing out. I am crossing my fingers that someone will realize that it needs to end now.

I also hope that the Kings capitalize on Memphis' stupidity and move up to take Ricky Rubio. They really need him. They're in awful shape and he's the only guy outside of Griffin who can revive interest in this draft.

Playoff Predictions oh nine

The playoffs just got interesting and less interesting. There are a ton of ways for this all to play out, but it the end, it won't matter, because the finals are set: Lakers - Cavs. Only a few catastrophic injuries could stop this from happening. The injuries that have already happened have made a pretty clear pick even easier: Garnett is done, Ginboli is done, and Orlando's forwards are hurting. It was looking like Lakers-Cavs before this, and now, it's obvious. But the rest of the bracket will be fun. And I'm not sure who wins.

EAST PLAYOFFS
1. Cleveland vs. 8. Detroit

Hard to believe the Pistons have slipped this much, but they have. Maybe not having Iverson helps them. They won't get close, but they have to have some pride left.

CAVS in 6

4. Atlanta vs. 5. Miami

Atlanta's reward for improving and landing home court? A dangerous Miami team. Atlanta has been good and proved me right for believing they wouldn't slip this year, but Wade is too much. He's carried this team over bigger obstacles.

HEAT in 7

3. Orlando vs. 6. Philly

No one wants to watch this series. The Sixers haven't been that amazing in the past few weeks, but nobody challenged. Orlando is hurt but managed to avoid a team that could exploit that. Even if Thad Young comes back, I have little faith in the hometowners. Oh well. They're still learning.

MAGIC in 5

2. Boston vs. 7. Chicago

Boston is reeling from the loss of KG. Chicago has come on really strong. An upset would seem possible, except that Chicago doesn't have the big guys to exploit KG's absence. The Bulls are strong on the perimeter, but the Celtics are better and more experienced there. It might be close, but the defending champs have enough heart.

CELTICS in 6

second round

Cleveland vs. Miami

Wade really should get the chance to face LeBron, shouldn't he? I can see it. Too bad LeBron is a little better and has more help.

CAVS in 6

Boston vs. Orlando

I've debated whether or not Orlando is ready to be a contender. They have a chance with Boston and Philly struggling. I have to think Howard is going to dominate without KG, but what about everyone else? I can see Orlando doing it, but I can also see them falling apart. I like the Celts' moxie.

CELTICS in 7

conf finals

Cleveland vs. Boston

Sadly, the grit of the champs ends here. Even if Boston had a healthy KG, they'd be in trouble. They could use James Posey right now, too. They have no way to hold LeBron all series and they barely did it last year with a full roster. Meanwhile, Cleveland has grown a lot.

CAVS in 5

WEST PLAYOFFS
1. Los Angeles vs. 8. Utah

Utah was supposed to be one of the teams that could challenge the Lakers, but they've fallen apart. They still seem like a tough matchup, and could push the Lakers harder than they would expect in the first round, but there's a reason why they didn't win 50.

LAKERS in 6

4. Portland vs. 5. Houston

I'm distraught. These are two of the best teams in the west and neither of them can go to the conference finals.... unless they beat the Lakers. Some think the Blazers could do that if everything falls into place, but they have to get past the Rockets first. I like Houston just for the desperation/ experience factor. They have to win it, don't they? Portland is young, but with the way they played the last month, I can see them winning this and winning it easy. I will take Houston shakily.

ROCKETS in 7

3. San Antonio vs. 6. Dallas

The bottom half of the Western bracket is really unpredictable. The Spurs seemed like the second best team in the conference and the only guys who could even think of taking on the Lakers. But then Manu was declared out for good, and they've uncharacteristically struggled down the stretch. Dallas has been okay but not great all season. I still think the Spurs have one more stand in them.

SPURS in 7

2. Denver vs. 7. New Orleans

I did not see Denver improving this year, much less getting the # 2 seed. They've done great, but have a lot to prove in the playoffs. They got a rough matchup with the Hornets, who might just be the most dangerous low seed. They've had injuries, but it looks like Peja and Chandler will at least be in the lineup. That scares me more than anything the Nuggs can do.

HORNETS in 7

second round

Lakers vs. Rockets

If the Blazers don't make it, the Lakers will cruise. Even if they did, the Lakers should win. the Rockets have no answer.

LAKERS in 5

Spurs vs. Hornets

The Hornets impressed many last year by taking the Spurs to 7 games. This year, they are hurt, but so are the Spurs. If the Mavs and Hornets win, well, we know the Hornets killed them last year. I think the Hornets can do it again if healthy.

HORNETS in 7

conf finals

Lakers vs. Hornets

I really don't know who is going to face the Lakers in the conference finals. It could be any of those 4 teams - Spurs, Nuggets, Mavs, or Hornets. I would say Spurs if they were healthy, but they're not. The Hornets have the most potential. It doesn't matter, though. None of them are taking the Lakers past 6 games.

LAKERS in 5

THE 2009 NBA FINALS

In a rough season for the league, with teams failing economically and tickets available, one dream matchup is almost certainly going to take place: LeBron-Kobe. Yes, there are many more players involved, but this is a superstar marquee battle that everyone craves. Kobe has more talent surrounding him and more size. LeBron has a better defense and some guards that could hurt LA. Cleveland will hurt people by going small with LeBron at a power spot, but the Lakers might be able to counter with Lamar Odom. If the Lakers want to go big, they may break out Odom, Bynum, and Gasol at the same time. They also have a nice perimeter defender specialist in Trevor Ariza. The Cavs can shoot, though, and they have been great at home, which they will have.

I've debated the outcome of this series many times, and I will do so again in the next month. Right now, I give a small edge to the Lakers, given that they have Bynum back and a little more experience. But I'll be rooting for the Cavs. Cleveland has suffered enough. Maybe my kiss of death will work. Last playoffs I really thought it would be Suns-Pistons.... uggggggggghhh.

Lakers in 6.

holiday revue

As the holidays continue, I discovered that I had not wrote anything in a while, despite some juicy trades and the disappointing start of the Sixers. I don't like to really get into the season until January, or at least, in with my usual super intensity, but several things have already been determined:

1. The Celtics and Lakers will be awesome again.
2. The Cavs are excellent. But LeBron is making everyone in Cleveland nervous... or is he?
3. Much like last year, there are 9 good teams in the West and one of them will be left out. Then there are 6 who are young and building.... and have no shot.
4. Knick fans are more alive than they've been in years.

Let's go through the big changes. I'm disappointed in the Sixers, obviously, but I really hated to see Coach Mo go. He's classy and he got them to play a lot harder, and much better than expected, the last two years. I really thought they could give him more time. They look out of sync, but they're still in it, and I didn't think they would be super great this year. They need time to jell and to figure out where young guys fit in. They need another shooter on the outside, too. This was a quick pulling of the plug on a guy who got some votes for top coach last year.

As sad as I am to see of the great Sixers go, I'm pulling for another Leo, or at least a DiLeo. He might have some luck by changing things. The big problem is offense. I figured Brand and Iggy would both be able to get 20 a game, as they had been before, but no one is above 16 right now. Last year, I thought they really needed a post scorer / big man shooter to anchor that run-heavy offense, and Brand seemed to fit perfectly, but now it doesn't always look that way. I suppose they were best at being scrappy and going with a small offense with Thad at PF.... but then, where would that leave them in the long run? They were better than I thought they'd be last year, but I didn't see a terrific future without that big man. Now it's hard to tell where exactly they should be going.

Thankfully, they're not out of it, and there are only really 4 teams to be sure playoff faves in the East, although I do like Atlanta (feeling a little vindicated after everyone else said the Hawks would slip). But still, there's tons of room for them to get in without anyone looking great in the last few spots. I'm keeping my hopes up. Thad came out strong, which was good. Speights has shown some offense in a limited amount of time. They really, really need outside shooting. I don't wish the Korver trade reversed, but they do need to find a wing or guard who can shoot like that.

As for trades, the Knicks' revamping shouldn't have been surprising, but after they started well, it was a little odd to see them give up on that so quick. But they saw a way to get better for the future, and in the short term, Al Harrington fits their system nicely. They're really hoping for good draft picks and free agents in the coming years. Which might happen now....

On the other side of the country, the Clips haven't shown much life. Fortunately, unlike the bad Clippers of yesterday, they do have some talent. Their starters look great on paper, but this team has no chemistry or depth. I continue to hope that they trade Kaman for some help and then dump Dunleavy or at least get him to play a more freewheeling style. Zandolph was surprisingly good in D'Antoni's fast system, and everyone else seems to be suited for a quick pace. This can still work, even if Baron Davis is pulling a GOB Bluth and telling everyone he made a horrible mistake.

And up north, Golden State continues to mystify with how many wings Nellie can acquire and then throw out on the floor. Or not. Anthony Morrow exploded and then vanished just as quick, Bellinelli finally showed up in a real game, and then Jamal Crawford arrived as another two guard who will shoot at any time. Meanwhile, there are no inside scorers or true points. Nice. Even if they can fit Crawford and Monta Ellis together when he comes back, how do they balance minutes? Maybe they'll realize it wasn't worth it to get Magette when they had all wings anyway, and they've since added more. Weird team.

The other puzzling trade was the Suns taking advantage of the Bobcats. Jason Richardson gives Phoenix a wing who can shoot and pick up some outside scoring, while the Bobcats, who seem to always need scorers, traded their best one for two role players... not to mention Jared Dudley, who always got minutes. I guess Charlotte wants to use more two-point-guard sets (though that may also be a way to showcase Felton while they shop him) and really wanted a post creator. But Diaw has to match his one great season to even come close to giving this trade value. Mr. Jordan, you can start paying attention any day now.

Meanwhile, Phoenix can play Richardson at the 2 or 3 and give the Suns' perimeter a rest. They also realized that instead of finding a normal backup for Nash, they should just make sure Grant Hill is on the court when he's off as the de facto ball handler. When they don't have Shaq, they might considering going small again with Amare and Matt Barnes up front.

I feel bad because Phoenix and Dallas started off with problems but look much better now, and I think they could be contenders, but they're going to have to fight just to get in. Then again, no one besides the Lakers has really stepped up in the west. San Antonio quietly integrated new players and survived a rough stretch of injuries, so maybe I shouldn't have counted them out. Still trying to get a read on Utah and Houston as they deal with typical injuries. New Orleans and Portland are still learning, but doing well enough to be in the top teams.

I still hold a spot in my heart for Iverson, so it's rough to see Denver thrive without him, especially since they haven't really replaced Camby.... while Al's scoring drops big in Detroit and they're not the favorites I thought they'd still be. Alas. I hope he hasn't totally killed his future plans.

More trades are coming for sure. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland stays pat or tries to get another shooter. They might want another big guy who can shoot, since they only have three post guys they really use, and two of them can't score. I think every team but the Celtics can think of a trade that might help them, so this could be a crazy time.


I like my picks so far, except for the Pistons. They could still pull it together, but Boston and Cleveland are the real deal in the east. LeBron is the easy MVP, although Dwyane Wade has come back so strong. O.J. Mayo is the only rookie averaging 20, and that's a rare number for rookies these days, so I can feel good. Derrick Rose has probably impressed me more, though, and if he gets the Bulls in the playoffs, he has to win it (because that team is chaotic). I am disappointed in the Wizards, who managed to weather injuries before. At least they're picking up young guys. I think my COY would be Lawrence Frank, because he's the one guy in charge of a team that's really ahead of where I thought they'd be, but Mike Brown, Stan Van Gundy, and Gregg Poppovich have been taking good teams and doing more with less, i.e. talent and injury problems. D'Antoni and Skiles can jump in if their teams make the playoffs.

ALL NBA so far: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Dwight Howard, Garnett
2ND: C Paul, B Roy, Nowitzki, Duncan, Bosh

ALL ROOK: Mayo, D Rose, Beasley, R Westbrook, Rudy Fernandez
2ND: M Gasol, DJ Augustin, Mario Chalmers, Brook Lopez, Oden

DEF: Dwight Howard
MIP: Devin Harris
6TH: Jason Terry

I will look over all stars and post my choices before the big day.

Leo's Big NBA Preview 08-09, Full Edition

Last time I gave win totals, finals, and major awards. Here's more in depth capsules of each team.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.


1. Los Angeles Lakers

As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.

As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.

2. Utah Jazz

Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.

3. New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.

4. Houston Rockets

Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.

5. San Antonio Spurs

For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.

6. Phoenix Suns

I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.

7. Dallas Mavericks

I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.

8. Portland Trail Blazers

I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.

9. Denver Nuggets

After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.

10. Los Angeles Clippers

After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.

11. Golden State Warriors

I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.

12. Sacramento Kings

The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves

Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.

14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces

Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.

15. Memphis Grizzlies

After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.


EASTERN CONFERENCE

In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.

1. Boston Celtics

The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....

2. Detroit Pistons

I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.

4. Orlando Magic

They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.

5. Philadelphia 76ers

With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.

6. Toronto Raptors

From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.

7. Atlanta Hawks

It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.

8. Washington Wizards

Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.

9. Chicago Bulls

Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.

10. Indiana Pacers

This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.

11. Charlotte Bobcats

Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.

12. Miami Heat

I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.

13. Milwaukee Bucks

I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.

14. New York Knicks

The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.

15. New Jersey Nets

They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.


PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN

LAL over HOU
NO over UT

LAL over NO

BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL

BOS over ORL
DET over CLE

DET over BOS

FINALS: LAL over DET in 7

Wait, I already said that. Oh well.

Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:

ALL NBA

LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe

SECOND

Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade

THIRD

Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson

ALL ROOKIE

Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden

SECOND

Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts

ALL DEF

Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul

ALL STAR TEAMS

WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant

EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton

6th Man: Andre Kirilenko

Most Improved: Ramon Sessions


EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.

As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?

As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.

finals thoughts, and the incredible shrinking beasley

After a day joyously listening to the LA fans display anger and embarrassment, I had to think about just what happened. Not just in that game 6 blowout, but the whole series. I jumped on board the Lakers-can't-lose bandwagon, and I'm glad I was wrong, but I'm surprised to see people getting upset so quickly. This wasn't supposed to be a strong year for the Lakers; they spent all summer trying to satisfy Kobe and were never at full strength for the latter half of the season. They won one of the toughest conferences in recent memory despite new people and a large hole at center. They beat the Spurs and the Jazz without a huge front line. Now the fans want an overhaul?

Chill out, LA: you may look bad now, but if Bynum comes back, there's really not much to worry about. Gasol and Odom had to play bigger then they should in the finals, and Boston was the only team to really expose it. But if they have Bynum, Gasol only now has to worry about the 4, and Odom can go back out to the wing. That's a huge front line, as I've said before, and athletic. They can absolutely dominate with that big front line and Kobe in the back. Their main problems in the finals were rebounding and interior defense; Bynum helps to solve that. Adding him in makes them huge again and completely changes the opposition's defensive plans. I really think it's that simple for them.

Of course, people want an overhaul, and believe that they can get it for nothing (well, they did last year). There's no way the Lakers can or should do that. Odom, however, is going to be a free agent next year, so his contract might be attractive to other teams. I predicted that he would be out, because of that contract, when the Lakers were looking for trades to help Kobe. Maybe now the Lakers will take a quick look at what's available. I'd keep him for next year, unless something great comes up. He faded in this series, but if he gets to play more on the perimeter, and he's not the main focus, he does better. He had to play down low all the time and he was expected to take a lot of shots, and that's not his style. Bynum teamed with Gasol would allow him to take advantage of smaller wings and contribute on the boards as a slashing wing, not a true post player. Trust me, he's much more effective that way.

Bynum's health should be the key issue of the summer for them. Even if he comes back strong, though, they might want to look at a legitimate backup center who can board and mix it up inside (Desanga Diop? someone like that?). Other than that, I don't think they have to go crazy. I would trade Radmanovic or Walton, but I doubt other teams are that interested.

Anyway, it was nice to see Boston's guys get it, even if I can't have much sympathy for the franchise or the city right now. They're a likable bunch. Considering everything that's happened, I guess it's the best outcome. I feel for the Phoenix guys, but I can't think of any team besides the Sixers that I could really root for like the group Boston had.


------------------------------

Onto draft matters.... June is such a great month for hoops. Imagine if the NFL held their draft a week after the Super Bowl happened.

I'm getting worried by all the Beasley stories. I thought Chicago should just take him and forget about everything else. It was too simple. But now, in light of his height revelation, I am starting to back off a little. It's not that I think he'll be a bust, but if he's not a legitimate four, his value goes way down. Bigger guys are harder to replace, and if his real position is the three, he's just not as attractive, even though I'm fairly convinced he can score 20 a night from day one. It would kinda kill what Chicago needs, and Miami already has Marion and Haslem. They can't go that small with all three. So if he's projected as a small forward - which he was by scouts at the beginning of the season - I don't really know if he should be the first pick. The Bulls know Rose will be a solid true point. If they don't know if Beasley will be a solid true PF, maybe that makes it easier for them.

Of course, he'll have plenty of suitors. Miami could deal the pick to Memphis, to get some players and the fifth pick to get Mayo, but then the Wolves could deal the next pick to other teams who also want Mayo. I'm thinking that if Miami wants Mayo more than Beasley, but knows that Mayo won't slip past three or four, then they'll probably just have to accept Minnesota's offer. The Wolves could give Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man, and they have two early second round picks. It's something. Miami gets the guy they want and some extra pieces for depth. Minnesota has a tough tandem with Jefferson and Beasley, and they have the time to figure out which positions those guys should play.

I don't know why Memphis likes Kevin Love at # 5. They could trade down, package that with all their extra pieces for an established star, or go for someone with more promise like Anthony Randolph. Love and Darko together? That's not going anywhere.

This is going to be a great week. There's so many potential moves. Right now, if I had to do a mock (and I love doing these), here's my idea:

1. Bulls - Derrick Rose
2. Wolves (trade) - Michael Beasley
3. Heat (trade) - O.J. Mayo
4. Sonics - Jarryd Bayless
5. Grizzlies - Anthony Randolph (just think about it, please, or fold the team)
6. Knicks - Russell Westbrook
7. Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Bucks - Joe Alexander
9. Bobcats - Brook Lopez
10. Nets - Kevin Love
11. Pacers - D.J. Augustin
12. Kings - Danilo Gallinari (surprised he drops, but he doesn't fit in NJ and they can play him next to Artest for now)
13. Blazers - DeAndre Jordan (they'll trade this to someone)
14. Warriors - Donte Greene
15. Suns - Brandon Rush (if he's gone, they may make some trades)
16. Sixers - Marreese Speights
17. Raptors - Robin Lopez
18. Wizards - Roy Hibbert
19. Cavs - Kostas Koufos
20. Nuggets - JaVale McGee
21. Nets - Darell Arthur
22. Magic - Courtney Lee
23. Jazz - Nicolas Batum
24. Sonics - Serge Ibaka
25. Rockets - Jason Thompson
26. Spurs - Mario Chalmers
27. Hornets - Chris Douglas-Roberts
28. Grizzlies - J.J. Hickson
29. Pistons - Alex Anjia
30. Celtics - Nathan Jawal

well, thanks for stopping by

Good job, LA.

not so fast, comrades

After 3 games, the finals present some interesting subplots. The Celtics are beating up on the Lakers inside, and Kobe looks pissed. I don't think he wanted to be selfish and take 50 shots a game, but now he might have to. Gasol and Odom are disappearing, and only spurts by Vujacic and Radmanovic shooting have helped them at all. Despite everyone in the entire basketball-watching world knowing that the Lakers would come out fired up for game 3, and get more calls going their way, they really didn't play great until the late going. Boston hung in there despite their big guns having off nights. Now I can see them winning a game in LA, which I highly doubted before the series started. Add that to the first two games, and I'm really wondering about the Lakers' chances.

The Lakers did make some nice moves by attacking more and having Kobe guard Rondo, who doesn't shoot a lot outside, but the Celts can counter this by playing House more (which, um, they should have been doing anyway). Pierce is still mysteriously guarded about his injury, so who knows. But even though the Lakers won last night, I'm very impressed by the Celtics. Of course, maybe the Lakers will put it together. And if Odom and Radman aren't doing anything, they should think about Ariza more. He can play D.


Some league-wide thoughts...

The Donaghy scandal took a sharp turn yesterday. I don't know if he's honest, but I always thought the Kings got a raw deal. Of course, so do lots of people. But still, he's waited to make these allegations 6 years after it happened and several months after he was arrested. To do it now shows he's more interested in saying F you to Stern than he is about being honest. He really wanted to stick the knife in his back.... if he had said this when he was first arrested, I might have believed him more. He needs proof before anything can really happen. But Stern looked extra pissed in his comments. I hope there's nothing going on.

I've been thinking about the draft and the different options Chicago (and thus Miami) have. Chicago doesn't need to start over, just move a few guys. Miami does. So when I heard about the trade rumors, I started thinking. I said the Bulls needed to take Beasley because it's hard to find a good big man, and they built their team up around a post player that they just don't have. Also, it's easy for them to move Gooden and Ty Thomas - really easy - to make room for Beasley, but it's nearly impossible to move Hinrich and Hughes to make room for Rose. So if Miami is really willing to deal Wade to move up, they can both benefit from this.

Here's how it could work - along with the right to switch picks, Miami gives up Wade and Udonis Haslem, who is solid but won't help them rebuild. Chicago sends them Gooden (cap filler), Thomas, and Ben Gordon (signed to a deal first). Now look at the potential lineups - Chciago has Noah, Beasley, Deng, Hinrich, and Wade, with Nocioni, Haslem, and Hughes coming off the bench. Miami has Gooden, Thomas, Marion, Rose, and Gordon, without a real center, but that's a fun team to watch. Plus, they can evaluate and will probably have a high pick next year.

I just keep thinking about styles and how people will mesh. Wade dominates the ball, which is why I'm so curious about the Heat initially wanting Rose. I don't know if they fit together. You need a shooter alongside Wade, which might be why the Heat are looking at O. J. Mayo now. He fits with Wade. This trade would create some nice backcourts: Wade would relieve Hinrich of ball handling pressure, and Hinrich could focus more on D and hitting jumpers, which is more his thing. Rose would have the ball in his hand and be flanked by up-tempo players who could fit a good running scheme (Marion, Thomas, Gordon raining outside jumpers). With Beasley inside, and Wade outside, Deng and Hinrich only have to be supporting players, and I think Chicago would be fantastic. That's a devastating offense if they work together. Miami would give up a lot, but then they'd have an exciting team to watch and only one more guy to find. I like this. I like it a lot. Even if the Heat aren't planning on keeping Marion, maybe they can get the Bulls to throw in Deng or Nocioni.

I was really pushing this upon the news of Doug Collins coming back to the Bulls, as he plays slow, half-cort sets. But that's not happening now. I still like it.

If Chicago still takes Rose anyway, that could set off some other stuff. I don't think they can trade Hinrich easily, but I did suggest in my trade deadline column that they might consider sending him and some big guys to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal. Who knows if JO will be healthy again, but it would solve their problems of lacking a dominant big man and finding a taker for Hinrich. If Indiana can get Eric Gordon in the draft, and pair him with Hinrich, that might work. They can get Thomas to be the new PF, and they also might want to give Ike Diogu more minutes. This is a possibility.

Miami would then go after Mayo, since they're not high on Beasley and O.J. fits well with Wade. They could trade down, and I think Memphis would be smart to offer some pieces. Miami would take Mike Miller and/ or Kyle Lowry any day, if that works, and then hope to get Mayo at number five. Maybe they could send something to Minnesota in hopes that the Wolves do not take Mayo.... maybe they take back Antoine Walker's contract? That might help, if that's possible. I can't calculate it right now, but they might work out some sort of agreement. This would help each team.

I guess we'll just have to see in a few weeks.

Lakers vs. Celtics and the NBA Playoffs

Ahhhh, yes. I remember the first real basketball game I got for Genesis, Electronic Arts' first foyer into sports gaming (I think). They named it after the two classic franchises who had battled so much, even though the year it came out, the finals actually featured Detroit beating Portand. In their defense, that would've sounded so much lamer. Also, the Lakers and Celtics were seen as the great rivals, even though they only met 3 times in the 80's, although they did account for 8 titles and one of them was in the finals every year. In any case, EA wanted to make their debut by paying homage, and it's a nice touch for a maker whose games have really been a part of my life.

That's just one of the 50 million nostalgic stories that are circulating this week. It's my personal favorite aspect of that nostalgia, but I must admit that I'm kinda disappointed. I know I should be happy for the league and excited that ratings will be high and I won't be so mocked for loving basketball. I see everyone jumping on board and that's cool.... but I'm also a little dismayed by how things came to be.

I always hate to see LA and New York get all the attention and have things handed to them at times. Maybe now I should throw Boston in there as well. Yes, I'm still fuming a little over the Gasol trade. I don't hate the Lakers, and I don't hate Kobe (my MVP vote, even if it means nothing, was all for him), but I don't feel like they really deserved that. They should have suffered for the Shaq deal and the subsequent Kwame deal, but then it all magically turned better for them. Being out here, I here from fans that it was just a right of life; that they expected it, and that it was just another good thing to happen to them. Everyone else was furious. Remember this.

As for the Celtics, their trades weren't nearly as one-sided, and they gave up some young guys, but they're still a strange team. They're thrown together oddly, like the '97 Florida Marlins, as a mixture of vets looking for a title with a few key draftees who step up. I like all their guys, actually, but I don't feel like this is a real Celtics team. It could have been any team that had the right pieces and used them, but of course it was the team with the most titles in history. I'd feel better if it was some place tortured, like Cleveland or Indiana.... umm, maybe Philly... just saying.... but no, it's Boston. Again.

So I don't really have any rooting interest. I guess I would root for the Celtics because I like their individual guys, but they're getting awfully spoiled in Boston. I know the Celtics have been terrible for a while, unlike the Pats and Sawx, but they're still the most successful franchise in league history. I don't feel anything for the Lakers for that trade, and also for the fact that I know they're going to be good the next few years - even better, in fact, with Andrew Bynum coming back. I didn't think they could make it this far without him and they did, so what will they do next year?

Who do I like? I think I hate everyone. I'm from Philly, so that's okay.

What is my actual prediction? Let's break this down:

BOS DEF: The Celtics played defense when it counted. They can shut down big guys and point guards, but they struggle with wings. This might be why they didn't dominate early in the playoffs - Atlanta was all young wings, Cleveland survived only on LeBron. They just didn't match up well. Detroit needed a big series from Sheed and didn't get it, and Garnett helped that. Billups was hurt, but Rondo is also doing good. The only guy that really killed Boston was Rip Hamilton, but that was enough.

Well, the Lakers have the best wing in the league, and they don't offer much at point guard, so that doesn't really help the Celts at all. I'm interested to see how Boston matches up down low - Perkins and KG have been great on D, but if the Lakers keep their smaller lineups, one of them is going to have to face Odom or Radmanovic. I think Garnett is versatile enough to do that, but it pulls him away from the basket. Gasol can do that too with his midrange game, so maybe LA will stay out of the paint.

Interestingly, when these teams met this season, the Celts basically let Kobe open a lot outside and dared him to shoot every time. It worked, as he shot a lot, but didn't get others involved, they won both games. But the Spurs just tried to do the same thing, and it didn't work for them. If Ray Allen isn't making shots, I think they have to use Posey. Even if he is, they probably want to make Kobe work a little bit.

The Celts' D is good, but they're in for a tough battle because....

LA O: They're rolling. They can all shoot, and Kobe is dying to prove himself. I think Gasol is a little too outside for Perkins, and Odom can be all over the place. He's my choice as the biggest X factor in this series. He can take advantage of Pierce if he wants to. The Celts will try to be physical, but the Lakers have rolled over the Spurs and Jazz, who have bigger frontlines and usually knock people around.

BOS O / LA DEF: The Celts are good, but if Ray isn't hitting shots, they're in trouble. Garnett needs to step up big here, but it's not his tendency. Pierce can probably go off on anyone, but he'll be matched by Kobe. The Lakers are weak on both ends at the point, so Rondo could have some big games, but he's not a scorer. The Celts should watch when the subs are in. Jordan Farmar is struggling and they could get Eddie House some open looks.

The Lakers will try to minimize the size advantage by playing small and fast and just outscoring the Celtics. Kobe, determined more than ever, might have some good looks on Pierce, but probably he'll stick Allen and just watch his shots. The Celts might try to abuse them down low with depth, by bringing in P. J. Brown, Leon Powe and Big Baby, while the Lakers only have Turiaf on their bench. If Odom, Gasol, or Turiaf gets in foul trouble, that could help the Celts big time.

Bottom line, the Lakers have more weapons and match up well. This is a nice matchup in that one team relying strongly on offense will go against one relying on D. I just don't think Boston's strengths match with the Lakers' weaknesses. The Lakers scored a ton against the Spurs, who have been great defensively for a long time. The Celtics can't match that firepower if the games are high-scoring. If Ray catches fire and Garnett plays like he should, the Celtics could pull it out. I just don't see it.

Lakers in 6.

the 2007-08 NBA awards

As promised, my awards for a stunning and fantastic regular season. All of these were tough and I was delighted with the great play this year.

MOST IMPROVED - Hedo Turkoglu, Magic

2. Jose Calderon, Raptors
3. Louis Williams, Sixers
4. Linus Kleiza, Nuggets
5. Sasha Vujacic, Lakers

Turkoglu is an easy choice as someone who really stepped it up this season. He started out with promise in Sacramento, but never was more than a decent sub. When Orlando signed Rashard Lewis, it seemed like he would come off the bench or be a distant third option. But he was huge for them, and it was his play from outside that really helped Dwight Howard make that team decent.

Calderon did a lot after T. J. Ford went down, showing maybe he should be the guy in charge. Williams came on as a terror on a surprisingly good second unit for the Sixers. Kleiza found a nieche in Denver, so much that they wouldn't include him in any deals for Ron Artest. Vujacic redeemed himself after a few years of pretty much nothing for the Lakers, and filled in nicely with Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza out.

6TH MAN - Manu Ginobli, Spurs

2. Jason Terry, Mavs
3. Leandro Barbosa, Suns
4. James Posey, Celtics
5. Jason Maxiell, Pistons

This is another easy choice as Ginobli is an all-star but likes to come off the bench for San Antonio. He carried this team at points and is good enough to be on a high all-league team. Terry does well in small lineups in Dallas, with Kidd now handing off to him. Barbosa, last year's winner, slipped a little bit in numbers but is still crucial for them. Posey was a bargain save for the Celtics after their big three left them no money for a bench. He pretty much kept that second unit together until they brought in more people. Maxiell is the only real low-post presence for the Pistons, and he's key to their success.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Kevin Garnett, Celtics

2. Marcus Camby, Nuggets
3. Shane Battier, Rockets
3. Bruce Bowen, Spurs
5. Rajon Rondo, Celtics

Everyone is going for Garnett now because of his impact on the Celtics, and also because they want to recognize him in a year that would get MVP many seasons, but not now. He's never won it, either, so he's got sentiment. Normally I wouldn't, but I have to admit that he has transformed this team. Their defense has been the strength of their turnaround, and it's mostly due to his intensity. Also, no one else has risen up.

Camby, last year's winner, loses points because his team can't guard anyone (even though people were trying to say that they did because they play so fast.... well, the Lakers are exposing them). Battier and Bowen are great wing defenders, and Rondo is another factor for Boston because of his long arms and quickness.

ALL DEFENSE FIRST TEAM

Garnett, Camby, Battier, Rondo, Bowen

ALL DEFENSE SECOND TEAM

Ron Artest, Kings
Josh Smith, Hawks
Dwight Howard, Magic
Chris Paul, Hornets
Quintin Ross, Clippers

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Kevin Durant, Sonics

2. Al Horford, Hawks
3. Al Thornton, Clippers

I'm only putting three because there's no one else. In fact, it's mostly a two man race. Horford has put up a double-double and been the only big man for the Hawks, who are in the playoffs, so he has a lot going for him. But Durant is better. People are turning on him because he takes a lot of bad shots and his team is horrible. But for all the drama going on in the great city of Seattle, and the terrible team he's been dealt, I think he's handled it pretty well. Sure, he gets a lot of shots, but why not? Who else is going to score for this team? Any rookie that can average 20 a game has to be a major candidate, no matter what. Few guys can get to that level anymore. He's the first option already and he's scored because he has to. Look at how few rookies have gotten to that mark over the past decade. I give him the edge, but I do appreciate Horford's play.

ALL ROOKIE FIRST TEAM

Durant, Horford, Thornton
Luis Scola, Rockets
Juan Carlos Navarro, Grizzlies

ALL ROOKIE SECOND TEAM

Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Jeff Green, Sonics
Carl Landry, Rockets
Thaddeous Young, Sixers
Jamario Moon, Raptors

COACH OF THE YEAR - Byron Scott, Hornets

2. Stan Van Gundy, Magic
3. Maurice Cheeks, Sixers
4. Doc Rivers, Celtics
5. Rick Adelman, Rockets

Remember when I said that the Hornets and Grizzlies would be in the hunt for the last few playoff spots, and I thought the Grizzlies had a slight edge? Yup. I feel stupid. It's not a huge surprise that the Hornets broke through to the playoffs, but to flirt with the best record in the conference? When the conference is as tough as ever? No one saw that. Even at the all-star break, most figured they would slow down. They didn't. Chris Paul obviously gets a lot of credit, but I think Scott did a great job with a roster that has some holes. They surprised everyone the most and he should win this easily.

Van Gundy made the most of a second chance and created just the right offense for their talents. Cheeks, whom I thought was brought in to be loyal to the organization as they went through rough times, managed to get a lot out of this unknown squad. I couldn't be prouder of him, no matter how they do this round. Rivers won't get much credit for the Cletics' turnaround, but he hasn't ruined anything yet. Adelman managed to win more games than Jeff Van Gundy did, even with the usual injuries still haunting Houston, and a dramatic change of style.

MVP - Kobe Bryant, Lakers

2. Chris Paul, Hornets
3. LeBron James, Cavaliers
4. Kevin Garnett, Celtics

I can't believe I'm writing this, because I'm tired of all the Kobe-fawning the media have displayed over the past few years out here, but I like him. It may have been a terrible thing, but his tirades lit a fire under this team and he wisely came back and bought into them. Yes, this roster has improved a lot over the past year, but then he also carried this team with Bynum missing a lot of time, and Gasol out in some spots too. I think about this: before the Gasol trade, Bynum was giving them some offense and a lot of D. Then he got hurt. They still played fairly well. Then they traded for Gasol, who gave them good offense but not a ton of D. They never had both of these guys on the court at the same time to complement each other. They went through changes and had more injuries than people realize. They made a lot of lineup changes. Through it all, though, Kobe stayed vicious and they won 57 games in a ridiculously tough conference. I think that counts as something.

In any other year, Paul might have gotten it. Actually, so would have LeBron, and he's gonna be third despite an unfathomable stat line. Paul is just a hair under Kobe for keeping a team no one expected to be great. As Bill Simmons, John Hollinger, and others have said, he might be having the best season of any point guard ever. He controls everything there and sets everyone up. David West and Tyson Chandler owe their surges to him. That roster doesn't look impressive, but he carried them to more wins than they've ever had, in a tough year. The only thing holding him back? I don't know how far he can go in the playoffs, whereas I expect the Lakers to do something (and dominate the next few years as well). If he proves himself now, (he's off to a good start), he might change my mind.

LeBron's unbelievable season loses a lot for his team not being that great in the weaker half, but he could still go off in the playoffs and scare everyone. Garnett, for as much as he has done, just can't compete with these great seasons. He's not even the person to fear most for opponents offensively on his own team. He's already got an MVP, so I think he'll be okay, especially if he gets the ring.

Think about it this way: if the Lakers had traded Kobe for, say, Ben Wallace, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, and Ben Gordon, how terrible would they be? Terrible. Beyond terrible. They would be the first-half Bulls without Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng... and look how the Bulls turned out. If the Hornets didn't have Paul, they would probably be awful, but pending on what point guard they had. The Cavs would obviously suck without LeBron because they built the whole team around him, but they only won 45 games with him. The Celtics, meanwhile, would probably still be decent if they hadn't made the KG trade - not great, but a playoff team with Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes helping the guys they have now. Does this make any sense? I don't know. But I think the scenarios of people not being there favors Kobe.

It's not sentiment or a lifetime achievement award; I just think he's broken through. I hope that's enough. If not, well, there are three other guys I can accept. This is a great year and they all deserve recognition.

One note for my all league team: I couldn't decide between Duncan and Howard as my starting center. Both were so good, and Duncan is usually listed as a forward, but I put him in at center all the time. I decided to go with both. It's a good year. We can have 6 people on the first team. This also means that we don't have 3 east guys and 2 west guys, which seemed a little unfair.


ALL NBA FIRST TEAM

Kobe, Paul, LeBron, Garnett
Dwight Howard, Magic
Tim Duncan, Spurs

ALL NBA SECOND TEAM

Carlos Boozer, Jazz
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs
Amare Stoudemire, Suns
Steve Nash, Suns
Chuancey Billups, Pistons

ALL NBA THIRD TEAM

Paul Pierce, Celtics
Tracy McGrady, Rockets
Chris Bosh, Raptors
Allen Iverson, Nuggets
Manu Ginobli, Spurs

HONORABLE MENTION

Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
Antawn Jamison, Wizards

That's all. More playoff notes coming soon.

HIBBERT!!!!

Yeah, my new bracket plan didn't quite work, but I was on the right track. I decided to base my picks on whom I did NOT like, and I was on the right track. Unfortunately, I decided Georgetown was the least-hateable team in their bracket, but I still hated them, and I really should have seen the Davidson upset coming (the fact that they're darlings scared me off). I should have trusted my gut... of hate.

Two things to emphasize:

1. If you don't like a high seeded team, don't put too much stock in them. Georgetown lost, Duke lost (I had that), Tennessee nearly lost (I knew Butler could take them, and they really should have), and Stanford had to pull everything out to squeak by. I also didn't like UConn or Drake that much, so I should've seen a busted bracket there. Which leads me to my second point....

2. Mid majors who have an excellent season and get a decent seed tend to flame out early. My theory is that they are much better off a s low seeded giant killers, and actually getting a decent seed creates pressure. Remember, a few years ago, Gonzaga made a couple nice runs as a low seed, but then when they finally got some recognition from the committee, they lost early. The only team that did anything with a decent seed was the '06 team with Morrison and Turiaf, which was really too talented to be a cinderella (much like Memphis is). And they only made it to the sweet 16. Nope, mid-majors just can't have a decent seed (6 or above) and live up to it. They need to surprise.

That's why I was feeling very doubtful about Drake, and lo and behold, they lost to Western Kentucky, which had that darling 12 seed. Sometimes, I think I'd rather be a 12 seed than a 5. Honestly.

So I got 9 out of 16. It's something. And, I still have 3 out of 4 for the last 4, but I'm wondering if maybe Kansas has gotten over their choke problems and will make it now. Wisconsin, Davidson, and Villanova? They have to be the best there.... but I can see Nova making it tough.... hmm....

We will see.



------0

Some random NBA notes while I'm here:

The Sixers' streak didn't end with my jinxing. In fact, they've been one of the best teams in the league for the past few weeks. WTF????? I'm thoroughly enjoying this now. Considering how the other teams plodding for the 8th spot are doing, they are now not only in, but an easy pick to make it. Unbelievable. Get Mo an extension; I think he could sneak away with a few COY votes.

Without much time left, I'm finding it near impossible to make any serious predictions. I'm leaning towards Boston over Phoenix, but that changes everyday. I still like the Pistons, especially the way the pro brackets are going. I have no answer for the West yet - I thought there would be some seperation, but clearly, this is going to come down to the last day of the regular season.

The Lakers beating Dallas, Utah (in SL), and Golden State last week while the Cavs floundered may have pushed Kobe head of LeBron in many eyes, including mine. But then what about Chris Paul? I think Kobe wins because voters know they'll have plenty of chances to vote for Paul and LBJ over the next few years, and he's got extra fire this year. But for me, it's almost a three way tie right now.

That is all.

NBA previewwwwwwwww?

It's almost time for the season to start. It seems like the postseason never really ended, with all the big news and lackluster finals and all... most fans were looking forward to the draft and the trade season and free agency and such, and now, suddenly, the real season is about to begin. Are you ready? I'm not.

I was going to start my annual preview soon, something I've taken pride in since I was 12. But this year, I don't feel like it's really the end. I kept waiting for the Lakers to do something, anything, and then the Marion - Kirilenko news came out, and I held off on any predictions. I was sure another big deal was upcoming. Then nothing happened. Everyone arrived at camp, somewhat begrudgingly but ready to play. I decided to proceed with caution as I had planned.

Then, last week, the Laker soap opera boiled up again. Kobe showed up to camp, but he and Dr. Buss publicly aired grievances, and now everyone is scrambling to throw out deal scenarios again. I had to look back over all the Kobe trades I suggested on here months ago. I don't know if any of them will work, but maybe..... and then how do I write a preview if major moves are pending? The Lakers could be the same low-level playoff team as last year, or they could be a solid contender, or they could be completely decimated at the end of the season, and I have no idea which will happen.

Some things I DO know:

1. Something is probably going to happen. It used to be thought that superstar trades were impossible, for salary cap and loyalty reasons, but look at the past few years - Shaq, Garnett, Iverson, even Vince, were all moved eventually. The Mavs will look at deals even if they have to lose the reigning MVP. It's not impossible for Kobe to leave.

2. Indiana isn't going anywhere. I know talks between the Lakers and them stalled, and Buss is in a tough spot, but I have to think they can come up with something. The Pacers need a complete overhaul. Why aren't they making something happen?

3. The Lakers have a tough choice of when to do things. If they do nothing now, they could try to win Kobe back with a godo start to the season. But if it goes bad, he'll really demand a trade and they'll be stuck like the Sixers were last year. And they'll lose value on him. But then they also might want to wait so other trades (especially those involving players who just signed) could materialize.

So what do I do? I suppose I will begin this as planned, and be ready to edit if anything goes down. Thank you, internet technology, for allowing me to change what I post quickly and easily.

Where do I rank Indiana though? I gues it doesn't matter if they act or not, or when - they're going to suck this year. How much is unknown.


Anyway, here are some ideas on Kobe's potential suitors, as I rank them.

1. BULLS

This is still the most likely, because they have depth and appealing prospects, they're in the East, they need a leader, and Kobe likes them. The real question is what the Lakers can get out of this. The Bulls will gladly give up Ben Gordon, and I'm thinking they can part with Ty Thomas, but do they dare include Deng or Hinrich? I say the Lakers would do this now with Gordon, Thomas, Selfosha, future draft picks, and cap filler... and the Bulls would be able to keep most of their core intact. They also wouldn't have to worry about investing too much in extensions, since Gordon and Thomas would be out and only Deng left to pay.

It makes the most sense, if they can work on it. I know the Bulls would like to have their young core develop together, but I'd make that deal in a second as long as I kept Deng.

2. NETS

They haven't been mentioned much, but Kobe enjoyed playing with Kidd this year and they will be in New York soon. They have the trading chips: a guy who can score and sell seats in Vince, and a potential star big man in Kristic. So that looks good. But then the Nets would be the same perimeter based team as they have been, with Kobe inserted. And the cap space doesn't work out yet (Kristic is still cheap, he needs to have an extension), considering that the Lakers would probably throw in a forward to help this out.

And if the Lakers settle for Carter and Jefferson and spare pieces (no Kidd or Kristic), well, Kupchak should just hang himself from the rafters. There's too much at stake here - Kristic makes or breaks this deal for both sides, and it can't really be balanced.... for now.

3. SUNS

Kobe mentioned them and they have a nice package, even without Nash or Stoudemire. If they take Marion and Barbosa, plus young guys and draft picks (Phoenix does have Atlanta's), that's not a bad deal. It gives the Lakers a lot of young talent, even if they slip. Remember when Marion said he'd like to be the high scorer on a medicore team over his current situation? Here's his chance.

This is likely not to happen, though, for two simple reasons: the Suns are rivals, and they're cheap. I doubt they'd spend the cash to keep Kobe and improve based on their recent moves. A Kobe/Cook swap for Marion/Barbosa works, but the Suns have to dip into their trade exception for it. Would they do that? Will Buss send Kobe to a team that plays the Lakers often? I doubt it. Too bad, because this would put the Suns over the top and give Marion some peace. Maybe Steve Kerr can beg his boss on behalf of the fact that Kobe is, um, WORTH IT!

(and worth a title?)

4. MAVERICKS

They keep being mentioned as a major player, even though they are in the same conference. Kobe did list them and Buss apparently can withstand Mark Cuban, which is a rarity amongst owners.

But is this really a good fit? Why would the Lakers take all the supporting players on the Mavs, which is the first option, or the Mavs make themselves into the new Lakers, which is the second option? If the Mavs do give up Dirk, then Kobe gets to play with a supporting cast that helps him but doesn't have any stars like he wants. They'll have to involve more people to make it work, because the Mavs have no fours and the Lakers lots. So basically then, Kobe will be in the same situation as the past few years. If the Mavs don't give up Dirk, the Lakers will come away without any real stars (Josh Howard is good, but he's an overachiever who benefits greatly playing alongside Nowitzki) and a big hole on their roster... and the Mavs will be a two man team with the same problems Boston faces, only much worse. So I don't think this is going to happen in any way. The pieces just don't fit.

But then, Cuban has an itchy trigger finger...

5. KNICKS

As much as we all think the league wants this to happen, there's no way the pieces fit. The Knicks are better off managing the cap (whoops, Isiah) and acquiring space (yoinks) and positioning themselves for a big free agent down the road, like Kobe and LeBron in a few years. They haven't done that, instead trading for people they can't get rid of later. Nicely done.

The only way for them to even dream of Kobe is for the Lakers to accept a collection of overpaid guys who aren't stars. Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph may put up good numbers offensively, but they're nowhere near the franchise level the Lakers are looking for. The Knicks could throw a wave of young talent to go with them, but none of these guys are stars in any sense. The Lakers could go for the cap relief, knowing that they can sign free agents in a few years, but why not get someone actually good? New York just doesn't have enough... but I can't count them out, for obvious reasons.

6. HAWKS

Yeah, I know, Kobe would never approve of this. But someone threw out a swap of Joe Johnson and Al Horford for Kobe and one of the forwards. You know what? That's not a bad deal for either side. The Lakers get two young starters who are true quality (that's their best pickup outside of the Bulls), and the Hawks get a true star and someone the fans could actually care about for once. Too bad their ownership group would probably turn it down after fighting again.

7. ROCKETS

Kobe straight up for T Mac? With a couple of the Houston guards thrown in? It would work, I suppose, but would it help either team that much? Hmm... this is intriguing, even if I don't believe it....

8. CELTICS

Rumors that the Celtics would trade Pierce back to his native LA have been floating around for a while, epecially when he was unhappy. He's the rare player who could almost match Kobe's scoring and popularity..... but that would be pretty mean for Boston to finally give him help and then send him packing. After all, ownership loves him. It's why they mortgaged their future to get him other stars instead of trading him for a youth movement. So as much as it makes sense to LA people, it's not gonna happen.

9. SPURS

Kobe for Parker and Ginobli? It would simplify things, but the Lakers want a big man more than a point guard who shoots. Plus San Antonio likes their system how it is.

10. SIXERS

Iggy and T. Young won't get it done because then Kobe has no supporting cast again. He'd be replicating Iverson in the early years.... although, that might be enough to get somewhere in the East.



So as far as I see it, the Bulls are the most likely candidate by far. If Jersey cooks up something or the Suns change their minds, they might work, but the Bulls have the most to offer and the resources to survive. Will this happen anytime soon? I doubt it, but I can't say. I'll start my preview soon with eraser in hand.

how the east was won, or at least saved

With all the draft/trade rumors, the Oden vs. Durant question, and Kobe bringing the whining level back up to annoying status, there's a lot going on. Simmons stated recently that the offeseason of the NBA is attracting more attention than the actual season. That's bad. And it's true. For NBA junkies like us, the draft and trade season are always exciting, but when normal fans care about them more than the playoffs, well, that's no good. Diehards love the NFL draft, but not as much as the season, and normal fans don't pay too much attention.

Most people blame the lackluster finals and the imbalance of conferences. Everyone is throwing around ideas for realignments and other proposals. As we all know, the West is much better and it's staying that way, thanks to the lottery, and horrible front offices in the east. There isn't much on the immediate horizon for the East right now.... so...

Do any of these supposed plans work? Here are some ideas:

1. Reseed the playoffs 1-16, regardless of conference.

2. Simmons' extravagant solution: give the top six teams in each conference a spot and a first round bye. Seed those 12 teams like this: conference leader 1, other conference leader 2, then just by records. Have a double-elimination tournament with the remaining 9 teams in each conference. Winners get the last two seeds. Crazy NCAA type brackets ensue.

3. Create two coast-to-coast conferences, like the NFL and MLB have. Then you don't have to rely on weaker teams, east or west... though, just like those leagues, one could still be better than the other. You could divide them up betwen cities, and maybe classic teams. Here's one example I had:

AMERICAN CONFERENCE
New York, Boston, Washington, Atlanta, Miami

Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Dallas, New Orleans

LA Clippers, Golden State, Seattle, Denver, Phoenix

NATIONAL CONFERENCE

New Jersey, Philadelphia, Orlando, Charlotte, Toronto

Chicago, Minnesota, Houston, Indiana, Memphis

LA Lakers, Portland, Sacramento, Utah, San Antonio

... and so forth. It's a basic plan that could be changed. But the idea is that, like baseball, the divisions are made into leagues, with teams from all over.

4. My not so radical idea: consolidate 2 or 4 teams, have two large conferences or maybe 4 medium divisions.

5. Conspiracy theorsits like this idea: that David Stern fixes it so Kobe, KG, and others go eastbound, helping the imbalance himself.

So here's the chances of any of these five scenarios happening: ZERO. Look, Stern knows that the East sucks, but he's not going to realign anything. The first plan isn't fair, because the East records are unfairly meaured against the stronger west. Besides, if that or the other first three plans happen, guess what the finals are? Phoenix - San Antonio. Maybe Dallas, if they never had to face Golden State, could be in there. But that's it. If the NBA changes its system, they could end up with a finale involving two smaller Western markets. Will that help ratings?

Now, ironically, that Phoenix - San Antonio series was great. It would have made an exciting finals. It was, in all honesty, the de facto finals this year; we all knew whoever won that would get the title easily. And they did. But suppose that was the series that ABC had to promote in June... do they want to have Phoenix and San Antonio as the last two teams remaining? Does this really help the ratings that much? Does anyone on the East coast care?

Stern knows that keeping the system as it is guarantees that one of the major Eastern media markets is likely to make it to the end. He'd love to have it be Knicks-Lakers, but since that's not happening, I think he'd rather have Heat-Mavs again than Suns-Spurs. It would be nice if people expected the Eastern representative to actually do something. Ironically, as much better as the West has been for the entire decade, two teams (Detroit and Miami) managed to catch fire in the playoffs and win it all. That helped. But now, no one expects it anymore.

Interesting that baseball had a similar problem when they made the new World Series schedule. Many people have complained that, in the East, the games come on way too late. They don't end until midnight. Baseball, many have figured, is banking on the loyalty of the diehard East coast fans to stay up and watch, while making things easier for those on the West coast, who are less passionate. They think, allegedly, that this system will get the most viewers on both sides. But many are tuning it out anyway.

Now...

If the World Series, one of the oldest traditions in sports we have, is starting to worry about viewership, you can better believe that Stern is fretting over his post-MJ product. He's not going to take those East coast crazies for granted like baseball is. He's going to make sure one Eastern team is included. The NBA finals aren't as big or traditional as the Series, and certainly not the Super Bowl. They can't afford to say, "Well, we don't care who plays in the big game, people will watch. It's the championship." Nope. They know better. That is why Stern will reject any major realignment plan.

As for my idea... I'm hoping Stern considers slicing teams. He probably doesn't want the disgrace of being the first commissioner in many years to actually get rid of teams (Selig probably almost did it and maybe should have, but refused to, for similar reasons). But I think that would help. Who knows. If Atlanta, Charlotte, and Memphis can turn a profit (and Seattle and New Orleans are satisfied where they are), I guess I can't say anything.

awwwwwwwwwwwwww kobe

Kobe: Trade me.

(changing radio station)

Kobe: Well... don't trade me, I love it here, but try harder to get good guys around me.

(changing radio station again)

Kobe: [sniff] This is messed up... [sniff] they lied to me.... [sniff] I love the Lakers and always have. I didn't even want Shaq to leave. Please just let me stay (and pay me) (and get some new guys).

LA Radio Hots: DON'T LEAVE!!! WE LOVE YOU!!! [fellatio]

And that sums up the day here.

------+-----+_----___---

So what do we make of this? Kobe has been villified and worhiped here, alternatingly. I thought they were harsh on him sometimes, but mostly they've been ass kissers. And today it seems like they're on that kick.

Yeah, the Lakers front office is a mess and their moves post-Jerry West have been shaky. But I refuse to believe that Kobe had no input, even if it was just implied, in Shaq leaving. They had to know it would satisfy him on some level. He's throwing Jerry Buss under a real buss (sorry). People from the Lakers are doing it to him. Everyone is hating on each other.

I'd like to see Kobe moved back East, just for the balance. He could lift Chicago back to the finals (but so could Pau Gasol). I don't see how the Knicks can put a package together, no matter what you think the NBA will do to keep him in a big market. The Lakers can address several needs by trading him for younger guys at multiple spots.

But I'm guessing they won't, and since public opinion here seems to be all on his side, they'll give in and make a deal for a big man, apologize to him, let him have everything, and lose in the playoffs again. They'll probably cave and beg West to come back, which would actually be a good thing, since they need some decision making ability there. Whether they actually listen to him or just use him as a figurehead is another story.

Whatever.... the NBA needed some more drama than the playoffs are currently providing and they have it now. I think this is all a big show and that the Lakers felt... underexposed? Now we're talking about them.

Thanks, Kobe. Feel better now?