Leo's Big NBA Preview 08-09, Full Edition

Last time I gave win totals, finals, and major awards. Here's more in depth capsules of each team.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.


1. Los Angeles Lakers

As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.

As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.

2. Utah Jazz

Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.

3. New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.

4. Houston Rockets

Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.

5. San Antonio Spurs

For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.

6. Phoenix Suns

I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.

7. Dallas Mavericks

I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.

8. Portland Trail Blazers

I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.

9. Denver Nuggets

After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.

10. Los Angeles Clippers

After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.

11. Golden State Warriors

I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.

12. Sacramento Kings

The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves

Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.

14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces

Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.

15. Memphis Grizzlies

After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.


EASTERN CONFERENCE

In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.

1. Boston Celtics

The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....

2. Detroit Pistons

I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.

4. Orlando Magic

They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.

5. Philadelphia 76ers

With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.

6. Toronto Raptors

From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.

7. Atlanta Hawks

It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.

8. Washington Wizards

Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.

9. Chicago Bulls

Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.

10. Indiana Pacers

This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.

11. Charlotte Bobcats

Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.

12. Miami Heat

I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.

13. Milwaukee Bucks

I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.

14. New York Knicks

The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.

15. New Jersey Nets

They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.


PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN

LAL over HOU
NO over UT

LAL over NO

BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL

BOS over ORL
DET over CLE

DET over BOS

FINALS: LAL over DET in 7

Wait, I already said that. Oh well.

Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:

ALL NBA

LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe

SECOND

Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade

THIRD

Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson

ALL ROOKIE

Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden

SECOND

Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts

ALL DEF

Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul

ALL STAR TEAMS

WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant

EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton

6th Man: Andre Kirilenko

Most Improved: Ramon Sessions


EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.

As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?

As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.

HIBBERT!!!!

Yeah, my new bracket plan didn't quite work, but I was on the right track. I decided to base my picks on whom I did NOT like, and I was on the right track. Unfortunately, I decided Georgetown was the least-hateable team in their bracket, but I still hated them, and I really should have seen the Davidson upset coming (the fact that they're darlings scared me off). I should have trusted my gut... of hate.

Two things to emphasize:

1. If you don't like a high seeded team, don't put too much stock in them. Georgetown lost, Duke lost (I had that), Tennessee nearly lost (I knew Butler could take them, and they really should have), and Stanford had to pull everything out to squeak by. I also didn't like UConn or Drake that much, so I should've seen a busted bracket there. Which leads me to my second point....

2. Mid majors who have an excellent season and get a decent seed tend to flame out early. My theory is that they are much better off a s low seeded giant killers, and actually getting a decent seed creates pressure. Remember, a few years ago, Gonzaga made a couple nice runs as a low seed, but then when they finally got some recognition from the committee, they lost early. The only team that did anything with a decent seed was the '06 team with Morrison and Turiaf, which was really too talented to be a cinderella (much like Memphis is). And they only made it to the sweet 16. Nope, mid-majors just can't have a decent seed (6 or above) and live up to it. They need to surprise.

That's why I was feeling very doubtful about Drake, and lo and behold, they lost to Western Kentucky, which had that darling 12 seed. Sometimes, I think I'd rather be a 12 seed than a 5. Honestly.

So I got 9 out of 16. It's something. And, I still have 3 out of 4 for the last 4, but I'm wondering if maybe Kansas has gotten over their choke problems and will make it now. Wisconsin, Davidson, and Villanova? They have to be the best there.... but I can see Nova making it tough.... hmm....

We will see.



------0

Some random NBA notes while I'm here:

The Sixers' streak didn't end with my jinxing. In fact, they've been one of the best teams in the league for the past few weeks. WTF????? I'm thoroughly enjoying this now. Considering how the other teams plodding for the 8th spot are doing, they are now not only in, but an easy pick to make it. Unbelievable. Get Mo an extension; I think he could sneak away with a few COY votes.

Without much time left, I'm finding it near impossible to make any serious predictions. I'm leaning towards Boston over Phoenix, but that changes everyday. I still like the Pistons, especially the way the pro brackets are going. I have no answer for the West yet - I thought there would be some seperation, but clearly, this is going to come down to the last day of the regular season.

The Lakers beating Dallas, Utah (in SL), and Golden State last week while the Cavs floundered may have pushed Kobe head of LeBron in many eyes, including mine. But then what about Chris Paul? I think Kobe wins because voters know they'll have plenty of chances to vote for Paul and LBJ over the next few years, and he's got extra fire this year. But for me, it's almost a three way tie right now.

That is all.

quick look at the break

Season projections, based on current standings:

EAST

1. Boston, 67 wins
2. Detroit, 61
3. Orlando, 50
4. Cleveland, 46
5. Toronto, 45
6. Washington, 39
7. New Jersey, 36
8. PHILLY ???!?!, 36

9. Atlanta, 35

(Chicago and Indiana are a few behind)

WEST

1. New Orleans, 58
2. Phoenix, 57
3. LA Lakers, 55
4. Utah, 52 (for divison leader)
5. San Antonio, 54
6. Dallas, 54
7,8,9. three way tie:
Golden State
Houston
Denver, all 50

10. Portland, 44


........................

Crazy, huh?

I don't expect all this to last, and I don't want to make any more predictions before the trade deadline next week (still waiting about the nutty Jersey-Dallas situation), but has it really gotten so bad that 50 wins is needed just to make the playoffs in the West, while the Sixers can sneak in? Can I even be proud of them if they make it with like 35 wins?

What a strange break. I need some time to think about what's going on.

NBA season preview, part three

Now it's time to look at the actual contenders. These teams will be making the playoffs or getting close. First up is the West, where I see three levels of teams. The first group will fight for the last two playoff spots and win between 36-46 games. The second group has the most elasticity - they could sneak into the conference finals if everything goes right, or they could fall if they have injuries or fighting. They should all win about 50. The last group is the big three that will probably be the best in the whole league, winning more than 55 and giving us the conference (and league) champ.

THE RACE FOR THE LAST TWO

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Starters: Ronny Turiaf, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant

Bench: Brian Cook, Luke Walton, Chris Mihm, Jordan Farmar, Maurice Evans

Outlook: Yeah, yeah, it all depends on Kobe. He's been the whole team for the past few years, so obviously, whatever he does directs how they're going. Right now, this team is probably good enough to win 45 games and slip into the playoffs. But does anyone really expect them to be the same once the season ends?

It will be interesting, aside form seeing Kobe's attitude early on, to see if some of the young guys are stepping up. Bynum and Farmar will be counted upon to prove that they can produce consistently.... and to Kobe that he should stick around. They're the ones to watch - they could still try a trade for another star before they let Kobe go. How some of these tradable assets do is important. So watch Bynum. I will be.

More questions: again, why did they sign Radmanovic when Cook does the same things at the same position better and for less cash??? When will Odom get hurt? Can they throw in Javaris Crittendon and some of those forwards to sweeten a deal? Is Jim Buss sweating right now in some dark room, praying that Bynum will do something and make Kobe forget that they could have Jason Kidd right now? I don't have the answers. Perhaps no one does.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Starters: David West, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Chris Paul, Morris Peterson

Bench: Hilton Armstrong, Rasual Butler, Julian Wright, Bobby Jackson, Jannero Pargo, Melvin Ely

Outlook: After their impressive near-playoff run two years ago, the Hornets have been through a lot but were tabbed as a certain playoff team last year (by me and others). They didn't pull through, and now, I'm not sure if this team had as bright a future as I thought. Or maybe all the injuries last year held them back. Either way, they're in the mix this year.

My rooting interest in this team remains strong as they employ the only La Sallian in the league right now (Steven Smith was in Atlanta's camp but got cut). They have a likable mix of players, led by Paul, one of the best points around. West isn't an inside threat but still scores and grabs rebounds well. Chandler supplies d and boards. The only thing missing is scoring from the wing. Peja was supposed to add that but got hurt early on, which is scary because he's been missing an awful lot of games the past few years. They singed Mo Pete as insurance, and Wright could be very good soon, but they need Peja to go anywhere. Will he hold up for a whole season? I'd like to think so, but I doubt it.

For that, I rank them as the first team out of the playoffs, but if Peja stays healthy, they should be in. Even if he doesn't, they can take advantage of anyone slipping. Most experts have them ahead of Memphis, so maybe they'll make me look stupid again.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Starters: Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic, Kyle Lowry, Mike Miller

Bench: Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick, Tarence Kinsey, Juan Carlos Navarro, Mike Conley

Outlook: People are very mixed on the Grizz. Some think they will get right back in the playoff race, and that last year was a fluke with injuries and tanking and playing all young guys. Some think they're back to being the bad Grizzlies. I think this team has too much talent to go back to losing. They have a better lineup than two years ago, when they nearly won 50 games. They can benefit from all the teams that aren't ready.

Skeptics will tell you that those teams that Memphis had in the playoffs had veteran leaders and defenders. This team is slightly younger, but some of the key pieces are the same. And they have talent. And scoring. And they finally have a real post rotation, thanks to Darko. He still hasn't proven himself worthy of his draft pick, but he is a decent rebounder and defender, and really the first legitimate center that Gasol has had to work with. They have an energetic bench, bolstered by Spanish import Navarro, who can really light it up.

Two areas of concern: can they decide on point guard play? Conley was the impressive rookie, but he's a little green. Lowry was a late pick a year ago but has impressed. Damon Stoudamire is still here, with lots more experience, but he's never been a passer first. How do they balance trying to win with giving the young guys time? Also, they might want another big man. Swift and Warrick are athletic forwards, but they're not true post players. These are fairly important things to address, and I'm still not sure about their defensive, but I think they have enough to bounce back. They're my last team in, for now.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Starters: Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, Monta Ellis

Bench: Brandan Wright, Matt Barnes, Mikeal Pietrus, Marco Bellinelli, Troy Hudson

Outlook: After years and years of just almost making the playoffs, the Warriors finally made it in, and caused chaos once there. They got hot and shocked Dallas in the first, and then battled Utah. After a summer of expectations (and some KG rumors), they head in with more confidence than they've had since the early 90's.

But are they too confident? They did have to replace Jason Richardson, and they got on an incredible run last year. Some wonder if they can keep it up. I say that they won't be as dangerous but will make the playoffs with a solid team. It helps that the West has a lot of people not ready this year, but they'll be in. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they will be over .500 and fun to watch.

I'm not so worried about Richardson, even though he is a great scorer, because they have scoring. All of these guys can score. This year, I think they'll have a more reasonably-sized lineup, after going small so often last year. They have a nice rotation on the perimeter, and even though their frontcourt will be a bit small, I like Biedrins and I think Wright can play a little because all they want for him now is to run and dunk. Harrington and Barnes aren't big at the four, but they can shoot it.

Yes, there's always the distinct possibility that Davis gets hurt or Jackson acts up. But it seems like everyone likes this system, and I can't see them falling apart after playing so well last year. They can make it, and probably won't pull any upsets.

THE ALMOST CONTENDERS

Can they pull off some upsets? 50 wins is about the norm here.

DENVER NUGGETS

Starters: Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Allen Iverson, J. R. Smith

Bench: Nene Hilario, Steven Hunter, Linus Kleiza, Chucky Atkins

Outlook: Perhaps the hardest team to predict. They could make some noise and run far, or struggle to make the playoffs. The key is the health of their big men and everyone playing well together.

Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen. Martin is coming back from two major knee surgeries. Camby always seems to get hurt at some point. Nene has had troubles. The Nuggs have plenty of depth there, but it's a dropoff in talent without those three.

I do think Melo and Iverson will be okay together, because they realize that they can't do it alone. Bigger question is if J. R. Smith can do much. He was hot early last year, but cooled down considerably after Iverson came in. He doesn't need to do much, just shoot and add some points. If he doesn't go, the Nuggs will have nothing in the backcourt besides Iverson and Atkins.

I'm predicting a hit and miss for these guys. They'll have injuries and some things will go wrong. They'll win around 50 games and get back to the playoffs, but if they get healthy, they could upset some people.

UTAH JAZZ

Starters: Carlos Boozer, Andre Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer

Bench: Paul Millsap, Matt Harpring, Jarron Collins, Jason Hart, Gordon Giricek

Outlook: Utah finally came through last year, after several seasons in building. They made the playoffs and managed to sneak into the conference finals. On that success, they should be a major contender this year. Still, there are problems.

They have a gaping hole at off guard. They've drafted a lot of guys there the past few years, but haven't used them much so far. Brewer is a good athlete who might be able to change that. Kirilenko, for all the ruckus he raised over the summer, is back and motivated, but he's not really best used at the wing. I could see him traded still mainly just for roster balance, nothign personal. But then they wouldn't have their best defender.

They also have to worry about Boozer's health, although Millsap might make up for some of that now. I like this team, but I still don't think it can contend realistically for the big prizes.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Starters: Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Mike James, Tracy McGrady

Bench: Chuck Hayes, Bonzi Wells, Dikembe Mutombo, Rafer Alston, Steve Francis, Luther Head

Outlook: Okay, maybe THIS is the hardest team to predict. They made a ton of improvements to a team that could have gone far and just barely lost out. They managed to win 50 games in a season where they were racked by injuries to their key players; similar injuries kept them out of the playoffs a year before.

This is a deep and hungrier team that returns, and some think they could challange for a conference or even league title. I like a lot of their changes - Scola has been mentioned as a potential star for years and he also allows Hayes to move to the bench, where he is better off; James and draftee Aaron Brooks can shoot it better than their previous point guards; and Wells might give them more lift this year. They are now more assured to win 50 games and probably more.

The big question, aside from avoiding the usual injury bug: how do they balance the guards? Alston was the starter last year but played erratic, Head was a nice bench combo guard, James came back after being traded for Alston two years ago, and Brooks was drafted to add scoring. Then, on top of that, they surprised everyone by bringing back Francis, once the face of the franchise, at a cheap price. Five guys for basically one spot? Strange. I expected James to win it because he can shoot, but reports are that Alston is back in the mix despite his troubles. I guess they're just going to let the best guys play, no matter who they are.

If they can get consistent play from the one and four spots, and the bench, then they can go far. I think they will certainly end McGrady's playoff drought, and could make the conference finals if things go well. I don't know about anything beyond that, but they have some time. They're going to be tough this year and for a while.

THE GOLDEN TRIO

These guys are the cream of the league... they will likely have the three best records and produce the conference and league winner. As usual.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Starters: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, DeSanga Diop, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse

Bench: Nick Fazekas, Devin George, Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, Eddie Jones

Outlook: Everyone wants to know which team will show up: the one that won 67 games or the one that looked lost in the first round of the playoffs? I say that they are still a major title contender, but that loss exposed a lot of flaws. There's no question that they can win 60 games again and be a force. But will they struggle against running teams like Golden State and Phoenix?

A lot of their success depends on Dirk maintaing just enough of a post game to attract defenders. Very few teams have gotten far on jumpers and one-on-one perimeter matchups, which the Mavs rely on. They have a very solid team, built around Dirk, but no other star who can carry then, so he has to be on all the time to give them a chance. They made a few tweaks on teh roster to improve shooting and defense, but nothign major.

I'm wondering if their biggest advantage in the playoffs is how matchups work. If they can avoid Phoenix and Denver and teams that run, they might have a chance to go far. They had problems with the Warriors, sure, but I should also note that they're one of the few teams that can give the Spurs fits. If they keep up how they were playing, and get a few more breaks this time, maybe the bad times won't matter.

In fact, I think that was the irony of last year - they played so hard to get the first seed, so they wouldn't have to face San Antonio or Pheonix early on, but they ended up playing the hottest team with the worst possible matchup for them. So yes, luck has a say in this, even though they are flawed. The regular season is not as meaningless for them as you might think.....

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Starters: Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli

Bench: Robert Horry, Ime Udoka, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Michael Finley

Outlook: I got it right last year by picking these guys. Yeah, they seem to have it every other year. Although, it seems that a lot of people are calling for a repeat, for once. Marc Stein and Bill Simmons make the good point that the only reason to pick against a Spurs repeat is that they've never done it before.

But isn't there a reason why they haven't? I said last year that they had the most urgency of anyone in the league because they knew their window of opportunity with the current cast was closing fast. Can they come back with the same fire? They haven't before. Every team in the league has flaws, and they are the safe and pretty much obvious pick. If anything bad happens to Phoenix and/or Dallas, then they probably will repeat without trouble.

As much as I hate picking against them, I can see one team knocking them off...

PHOENIX SUNS

Starters: Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Raja Bell, Steve Nash

Bench: Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Alando Tucker, D. J. Strawberry

Here's why am I making the case for Phoenix over San Antonio:

1. The sense of urgency has been reversed. The Spurs won, giving a title to Finley and cementing their place in history. So what if they haven't repeated? They've won 3 in 6 years. That's a dynasty whether anyone wants to call it one or not.

Meanwhile, Steve Nash's clock is ticking fast. So is Grant Hill's. And the Suns know this is their last season with Shawn Marion. I think they're way more driven than ever before, and I give a slight edge to them there.

2. Did I mention how pissed the Suns were after that series? The Spurs are always motivated, but they will not have that kind fo fire this year.

3. One of the reasons why it's so hard to repeat is because the playoffs last so freaking long, the finals teams lose a lot of recouperating time. I think this has hurt the Spurs in the past - they've had to play an extra 10-12 games and have their offseason shortended by a whole month. That wears on you.

Granted, they had an easier time this year in the later rounds, handling the Jazz and Cavs, but they still had to play through June while others were getting ready.

4. Last year went down to the wire. Since then, the Suns have added Hill. Amare and Barbosa are still on the way up. Can you say that about San Antonio? Udoka will help, but most of their guys are slowing down.

5. Look, after last year's debacle, and then the Donaghy stuff, Phoenix cannot get a lot of bad calls or their fans will riot. Sure, the league is going to be careful with officiating, but wouldn't Phoenix get a little help? Especially when people are sick of watching the Spurs? And if Chicago or Detroit comes out of the east with no marquee star? I have a suspicious feeling that a certain someone needs the Suns to help restore image. Just saying....

Here's why I am making the case for Phoenix over Dallas:

1. They can go small and cause matchup problems easily.

2. They shoot better.

3. Marion is one of the few defenders flexible enough to guard Dirk.

4. Two years ago, the Suns gave Dallas a fight with no Amare and a hobbled Bell. Ric Bucher once said that they would have won it all if Bell was healthy, which I don't really buy, but anyway, their roster looks a lot better now. Dallas is basically the same.

Do I see problems in Phoenix? Sure. Hill and Nash are always a threat for injuries, and they're not that deep. Their owner is a total cheapskate who could have prevented any question of them ever losing with a few signings and a revesal from their policy to give up every draft pick possible. I did not like them losing Kurt Thomas, and if they signed a big man soon, it would ease my pain.

However, I think a part of this has to do with Diaw. He was a big contributor in the year Amare was hurt, got a big contract, but slipped last year. He didn'tt show up in great shape, but I think his main problem was that he doesn't work well as a wing player in this mix; that's why no one noticed him in Atlanta. Now that Hill is in, Barbosa is commanding a lot of minutes, and Thomas is gone, Diaw will be used only as a post player, which I think will help him. He can give Marion and Amare more breathers than recent. He's not the defender that Thomas was, but he should be better off as an undersized post than as a miscast wing.

Again, signing another shot blocker would greatly ease my pain. Phoenix was allegedly trying hard to convince P. J. Brown to play one more year for them. If thy can get him to Sun City, that would help. And I'd feel safe. But as for now, they are my very cautious pick for the 2008 NBA title.

POSSIBLE PLAYOFF BRACKET:

1. Dallas over 8. Memphis (or New Orleans, doesn't really matter)

2. Phoenix over 7. Golden State

3. San Antonio over 6. Denver

4. Houston over 5. Utah
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1. Dallas over 4. Houston

2. Phoenix over 3. San Antonio
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2. Phoenix over 1. Dallas
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PHOENIX OVER (east winner)