Yipes. What is going on here? Basketball in Atlanta is suddenly alive again, if it ever was. The Lakers had little trouble adjusting to the mountains. The Hornets, whom (like many) I didn't expect much out of, would not let the Mavs get close.
And then there are the two series I really didn't see coming - Spurs v Suns and Sixers v Pistons. Much like last year, I was ready to bet that the winner of a Spurs-Suns series would take it all. After an epic game 1, it looked like this would come down to seven intense battles. But even though the Suns were close, they never really got over that, and suddenly, they're done.
The Sixers, meanwhile, stole the first game with no real explanation, then got the third one at home to go up. Improbably, they were up big in game 4 and looking to get Detroit in the death zone when the Pistons finally woke up. Now, Detroit seems to be attentive and in control, after a big win tonight. But still, the hometowners are making a statement, and they are closer to being good again than we imagined.
So now what? Half of my finals prediction is trash, and I'm not feeling so certain about anything else. The Hornets, Magic and the Lakers have impressed me so much, while the Jazz and Pistons are struggling. And the Celtics? Tsk, tsk.
Well, here's my new call for the next rounds:
BOS over CLE in 7
DET over ORL in 7
SAN over NO in 6
LAL over UT in 7
SAN over LAL in 6
BOS over DET in 6
BOS over SAN in 7
Yeah... I don't like it, and I think the possibility of a retro Celtics-Lakers finals is rising everyday, but I am sticking to my belief that no Andrew Bynum is going to kill them at some point. It would kill them against Utah if the Jazz had anyone who could remotely stay with Kobe. That series will be good, but I can't see the Jazz taking any road games.
I've been moving towards the Celtics for a while, and naturally, they look angry and confused now. I think they will pull out of it.... and I think Detroit is way too unfocused for such a veteran team. I don't think the Spurs will have enough to repeat after that brutal road. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to the Lakers or maybe even Hornets.
This could all change shortly.......
Showing posts with label tim duncan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tim duncan. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Monday, October 29, 2007
NBA season preview, part three
Now it's time to look at the actual contenders. These teams will be making the playoffs or getting close. First up is the West, where I see three levels of teams. The first group will fight for the last two playoff spots and win between 36-46 games. The second group has the most elasticity - they could sneak into the conference finals if everything goes right, or they could fall if they have injuries or fighting. They should all win about 50. The last group is the big three that will probably be the best in the whole league, winning more than 55 and giving us the conference (and league) champ.
THE RACE FOR THE LAST TWO
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Starters: Ronny Turiaf, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant
Bench: Brian Cook, Luke Walton, Chris Mihm, Jordan Farmar, Maurice Evans
Outlook: Yeah, yeah, it all depends on Kobe. He's been the whole team for the past few years, so obviously, whatever he does directs how they're going. Right now, this team is probably good enough to win 45 games and slip into the playoffs. But does anyone really expect them to be the same once the season ends?
It will be interesting, aside form seeing Kobe's attitude early on, to see if some of the young guys are stepping up. Bynum and Farmar will be counted upon to prove that they can produce consistently.... and to Kobe that he should stick around. They're the ones to watch - they could still try a trade for another star before they let Kobe go. How some of these tradable assets do is important. So watch Bynum. I will be.
More questions: again, why did they sign Radmanovic when Cook does the same things at the same position better and for less cash??? When will Odom get hurt? Can they throw in Javaris Crittendon and some of those forwards to sweeten a deal? Is Jim Buss sweating right now in some dark room, praying that Bynum will do something and make Kobe forget that they could have Jason Kidd right now? I don't have the answers. Perhaps no one does.
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Starters: David West, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Chris Paul, Morris Peterson
Bench: Hilton Armstrong, Rasual Butler, Julian Wright, Bobby Jackson, Jannero Pargo, Melvin Ely
Outlook: After their impressive near-playoff run two years ago, the Hornets have been through a lot but were tabbed as a certain playoff team last year (by me and others). They didn't pull through, and now, I'm not sure if this team had as bright a future as I thought. Or maybe all the injuries last year held them back. Either way, they're in the mix this year.
My rooting interest in this team remains strong as they employ the only La Sallian in the league right now (Steven Smith was in Atlanta's camp but got cut). They have a likable mix of players, led by Paul, one of the best points around. West isn't an inside threat but still scores and grabs rebounds well. Chandler supplies d and boards. The only thing missing is scoring from the wing. Peja was supposed to add that but got hurt early on, which is scary because he's been missing an awful lot of games the past few years. They singed Mo Pete as insurance, and Wright could be very good soon, but they need Peja to go anywhere. Will he hold up for a whole season? I'd like to think so, but I doubt it.
For that, I rank them as the first team out of the playoffs, but if Peja stays healthy, they should be in. Even if he doesn't, they can take advantage of anyone slipping. Most experts have them ahead of Memphis, so maybe they'll make me look stupid again.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Starters: Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic, Kyle Lowry, Mike Miller
Bench: Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick, Tarence Kinsey, Juan Carlos Navarro, Mike Conley
Outlook: People are very mixed on the Grizz. Some think they will get right back in the playoff race, and that last year was a fluke with injuries and tanking and playing all young guys. Some think they're back to being the bad Grizzlies. I think this team has too much talent to go back to losing. They have a better lineup than two years ago, when they nearly won 50 games. They can benefit from all the teams that aren't ready.
Skeptics will tell you that those teams that Memphis had in the playoffs had veteran leaders and defenders. This team is slightly younger, but some of the key pieces are the same. And they have talent. And scoring. And they finally have a real post rotation, thanks to Darko. He still hasn't proven himself worthy of his draft pick, but he is a decent rebounder and defender, and really the first legitimate center that Gasol has had to work with. They have an energetic bench, bolstered by Spanish import Navarro, who can really light it up.
Two areas of concern: can they decide on point guard play? Conley was the impressive rookie, but he's a little green. Lowry was a late pick a year ago but has impressed. Damon Stoudamire is still here, with lots more experience, but he's never been a passer first. How do they balance trying to win with giving the young guys time? Also, they might want another big man. Swift and Warrick are athletic forwards, but they're not true post players. These are fairly important things to address, and I'm still not sure about their defensive, but I think they have enough to bounce back. They're my last team in, for now.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Starters: Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, Monta Ellis
Bench: Brandan Wright, Matt Barnes, Mikeal Pietrus, Marco Bellinelli, Troy Hudson
Outlook: After years and years of just almost making the playoffs, the Warriors finally made it in, and caused chaos once there. They got hot and shocked Dallas in the first, and then battled Utah. After a summer of expectations (and some KG rumors), they head in with more confidence than they've had since the early 90's.
But are they too confident? They did have to replace Jason Richardson, and they got on an incredible run last year. Some wonder if they can keep it up. I say that they won't be as dangerous but will make the playoffs with a solid team. It helps that the West has a lot of people not ready this year, but they'll be in. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they will be over .500 and fun to watch.
I'm not so worried about Richardson, even though he is a great scorer, because they have scoring. All of these guys can score. This year, I think they'll have a more reasonably-sized lineup, after going small so often last year. They have a nice rotation on the perimeter, and even though their frontcourt will be a bit small, I like Biedrins and I think Wright can play a little because all they want for him now is to run and dunk. Harrington and Barnes aren't big at the four, but they can shoot it.
Yes, there's always the distinct possibility that Davis gets hurt or Jackson acts up. But it seems like everyone likes this system, and I can't see them falling apart after playing so well last year. They can make it, and probably won't pull any upsets.
THE ALMOST CONTENDERS
Can they pull off some upsets? 50 wins is about the norm here.
DENVER NUGGETS
Starters: Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Allen Iverson, J. R. Smith
Bench: Nene Hilario, Steven Hunter, Linus Kleiza, Chucky Atkins
Outlook: Perhaps the hardest team to predict. They could make some noise and run far, or struggle to make the playoffs. The key is the health of their big men and everyone playing well together.
Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen. Martin is coming back from two major knee surgeries. Camby always seems to get hurt at some point. Nene has had troubles. The Nuggs have plenty of depth there, but it's a dropoff in talent without those three.
I do think Melo and Iverson will be okay together, because they realize that they can't do it alone. Bigger question is if J. R. Smith can do much. He was hot early last year, but cooled down considerably after Iverson came in. He doesn't need to do much, just shoot and add some points. If he doesn't go, the Nuggs will have nothing in the backcourt besides Iverson and Atkins.
I'm predicting a hit and miss for these guys. They'll have injuries and some things will go wrong. They'll win around 50 games and get back to the playoffs, but if they get healthy, they could upset some people.
UTAH JAZZ
Starters: Carlos Boozer, Andre Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer
Bench: Paul Millsap, Matt Harpring, Jarron Collins, Jason Hart, Gordon Giricek
Outlook: Utah finally came through last year, after several seasons in building. They made the playoffs and managed to sneak into the conference finals. On that success, they should be a major contender this year. Still, there are problems.
They have a gaping hole at off guard. They've drafted a lot of guys there the past few years, but haven't used them much so far. Brewer is a good athlete who might be able to change that. Kirilenko, for all the ruckus he raised over the summer, is back and motivated, but he's not really best used at the wing. I could see him traded still mainly just for roster balance, nothign personal. But then they wouldn't have their best defender.
They also have to worry about Boozer's health, although Millsap might make up for some of that now. I like this team, but I still don't think it can contend realistically for the big prizes.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Starters: Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Mike James, Tracy McGrady
Bench: Chuck Hayes, Bonzi Wells, Dikembe Mutombo, Rafer Alston, Steve Francis, Luther Head
Outlook: Okay, maybe THIS is the hardest team to predict. They made a ton of improvements to a team that could have gone far and just barely lost out. They managed to win 50 games in a season where they were racked by injuries to their key players; similar injuries kept them out of the playoffs a year before.
This is a deep and hungrier team that returns, and some think they could challange for a conference or even league title. I like a lot of their changes - Scola has been mentioned as a potential star for years and he also allows Hayes to move to the bench, where he is better off; James and draftee Aaron Brooks can shoot it better than their previous point guards; and Wells might give them more lift this year. They are now more assured to win 50 games and probably more.
The big question, aside from avoiding the usual injury bug: how do they balance the guards? Alston was the starter last year but played erratic, Head was a nice bench combo guard, James came back after being traded for Alston two years ago, and Brooks was drafted to add scoring. Then, on top of that, they surprised everyone by bringing back Francis, once the face of the franchise, at a cheap price. Five guys for basically one spot? Strange. I expected James to win it because he can shoot, but reports are that Alston is back in the mix despite his troubles. I guess they're just going to let the best guys play, no matter who they are.
If they can get consistent play from the one and four spots, and the bench, then they can go far. I think they will certainly end McGrady's playoff drought, and could make the conference finals if things go well. I don't know about anything beyond that, but they have some time. They're going to be tough this year and for a while.
THE GOLDEN TRIO
These guys are the cream of the league... they will likely have the three best records and produce the conference and league winner. As usual.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Starters: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, DeSanga Diop, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse
Bench: Nick Fazekas, Devin George, Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, Eddie Jones
Outlook: Everyone wants to know which team will show up: the one that won 67 games or the one that looked lost in the first round of the playoffs? I say that they are still a major title contender, but that loss exposed a lot of flaws. There's no question that they can win 60 games again and be a force. But will they struggle against running teams like Golden State and Phoenix?
A lot of their success depends on Dirk maintaing just enough of a post game to attract defenders. Very few teams have gotten far on jumpers and one-on-one perimeter matchups, which the Mavs rely on. They have a very solid team, built around Dirk, but no other star who can carry then, so he has to be on all the time to give them a chance. They made a few tweaks on teh roster to improve shooting and defense, but nothign major.
I'm wondering if their biggest advantage in the playoffs is how matchups work. If they can avoid Phoenix and Denver and teams that run, they might have a chance to go far. They had problems with the Warriors, sure, but I should also note that they're one of the few teams that can give the Spurs fits. If they keep up how they were playing, and get a few more breaks this time, maybe the bad times won't matter.
In fact, I think that was the irony of last year - they played so hard to get the first seed, so they wouldn't have to face San Antonio or Pheonix early on, but they ended up playing the hottest team with the worst possible matchup for them. So yes, luck has a say in this, even though they are flawed. The regular season is not as meaningless for them as you might think.....
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Starters: Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli
Bench: Robert Horry, Ime Udoka, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Michael Finley
Outlook: I got it right last year by picking these guys. Yeah, they seem to have it every other year. Although, it seems that a lot of people are calling for a repeat, for once. Marc Stein and Bill Simmons make the good point that the only reason to pick against a Spurs repeat is that they've never done it before.
But isn't there a reason why they haven't? I said last year that they had the most urgency of anyone in the league because they knew their window of opportunity with the current cast was closing fast. Can they come back with the same fire? They haven't before. Every team in the league has flaws, and they are the safe and pretty much obvious pick. If anything bad happens to Phoenix and/or Dallas, then they probably will repeat without trouble.
As much as I hate picking against them, I can see one team knocking them off...
PHOENIX SUNS
Starters: Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Raja Bell, Steve Nash
Bench: Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Alando Tucker, D. J. Strawberry
Here's why am I making the case for Phoenix over San Antonio:
1. The sense of urgency has been reversed. The Spurs won, giving a title to Finley and cementing their place in history. So what if they haven't repeated? They've won 3 in 6 years. That's a dynasty whether anyone wants to call it one or not.
Meanwhile, Steve Nash's clock is ticking fast. So is Grant Hill's. And the Suns know this is their last season with Shawn Marion. I think they're way more driven than ever before, and I give a slight edge to them there.
2. Did I mention how pissed the Suns were after that series? The Spurs are always motivated, but they will not have that kind fo fire this year.
3. One of the reasons why it's so hard to repeat is because the playoffs last so freaking long, the finals teams lose a lot of recouperating time. I think this has hurt the Spurs in the past - they've had to play an extra 10-12 games and have their offseason shortended by a whole month. That wears on you.
Granted, they had an easier time this year in the later rounds, handling the Jazz and Cavs, but they still had to play through June while others were getting ready.
4. Last year went down to the wire. Since then, the Suns have added Hill. Amare and Barbosa are still on the way up. Can you say that about San Antonio? Udoka will help, but most of their guys are slowing down.
5. Look, after last year's debacle, and then the Donaghy stuff, Phoenix cannot get a lot of bad calls or their fans will riot. Sure, the league is going to be careful with officiating, but wouldn't Phoenix get a little help? Especially when people are sick of watching the Spurs? And if Chicago or Detroit comes out of the east with no marquee star? I have a suspicious feeling that a certain someone needs the Suns to help restore image. Just saying....
Here's why I am making the case for Phoenix over Dallas:
1. They can go small and cause matchup problems easily.
2. They shoot better.
3. Marion is one of the few defenders flexible enough to guard Dirk.
4. Two years ago, the Suns gave Dallas a fight with no Amare and a hobbled Bell. Ric Bucher once said that they would have won it all if Bell was healthy, which I don't really buy, but anyway, their roster looks a lot better now. Dallas is basically the same.
Do I see problems in Phoenix? Sure. Hill and Nash are always a threat for injuries, and they're not that deep. Their owner is a total cheapskate who could have prevented any question of them ever losing with a few signings and a revesal from their policy to give up every draft pick possible. I did not like them losing Kurt Thomas, and if they signed a big man soon, it would ease my pain.
However, I think a part of this has to do with Diaw. He was a big contributor in the year Amare was hurt, got a big contract, but slipped last year. He didn'tt show up in great shape, but I think his main problem was that he doesn't work well as a wing player in this mix; that's why no one noticed him in Atlanta. Now that Hill is in, Barbosa is commanding a lot of minutes, and Thomas is gone, Diaw will be used only as a post player, which I think will help him. He can give Marion and Amare more breathers than recent. He's not the defender that Thomas was, but he should be better off as an undersized post than as a miscast wing.
Again, signing another shot blocker would greatly ease my pain. Phoenix was allegedly trying hard to convince P. J. Brown to play one more year for them. If thy can get him to Sun City, that would help. And I'd feel safe. But as for now, they are my very cautious pick for the 2008 NBA title.
POSSIBLE PLAYOFF BRACKET:
1. Dallas over 8. Memphis (or New Orleans, doesn't really matter)
2. Phoenix over 7. Golden State
3. San Antonio over 6. Denver
4. Houston over 5. Utah
-----------
1. Dallas over 4. Houston
2. Phoenix over 3. San Antonio
--------------
2. Phoenix over 1. Dallas
-----------
PHOENIX OVER (east winner)
THE RACE FOR THE LAST TWO
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Starters: Ronny Turiaf, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant
Bench: Brian Cook, Luke Walton, Chris Mihm, Jordan Farmar, Maurice Evans
Outlook: Yeah, yeah, it all depends on Kobe. He's been the whole team for the past few years, so obviously, whatever he does directs how they're going. Right now, this team is probably good enough to win 45 games and slip into the playoffs. But does anyone really expect them to be the same once the season ends?
It will be interesting, aside form seeing Kobe's attitude early on, to see if some of the young guys are stepping up. Bynum and Farmar will be counted upon to prove that they can produce consistently.... and to Kobe that he should stick around. They're the ones to watch - they could still try a trade for another star before they let Kobe go. How some of these tradable assets do is important. So watch Bynum. I will be.
More questions: again, why did they sign Radmanovic when Cook does the same things at the same position better and for less cash??? When will Odom get hurt? Can they throw in Javaris Crittendon and some of those forwards to sweeten a deal? Is Jim Buss sweating right now in some dark room, praying that Bynum will do something and make Kobe forget that they could have Jason Kidd right now? I don't have the answers. Perhaps no one does.
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Starters: David West, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Chris Paul, Morris Peterson
Bench: Hilton Armstrong, Rasual Butler, Julian Wright, Bobby Jackson, Jannero Pargo, Melvin Ely
Outlook: After their impressive near-playoff run two years ago, the Hornets have been through a lot but were tabbed as a certain playoff team last year (by me and others). They didn't pull through, and now, I'm not sure if this team had as bright a future as I thought. Or maybe all the injuries last year held them back. Either way, they're in the mix this year.
My rooting interest in this team remains strong as they employ the only La Sallian in the league right now (Steven Smith was in Atlanta's camp but got cut). They have a likable mix of players, led by Paul, one of the best points around. West isn't an inside threat but still scores and grabs rebounds well. Chandler supplies d and boards. The only thing missing is scoring from the wing. Peja was supposed to add that but got hurt early on, which is scary because he's been missing an awful lot of games the past few years. They singed Mo Pete as insurance, and Wright could be very good soon, but they need Peja to go anywhere. Will he hold up for a whole season? I'd like to think so, but I doubt it.
For that, I rank them as the first team out of the playoffs, but if Peja stays healthy, they should be in. Even if he doesn't, they can take advantage of anyone slipping. Most experts have them ahead of Memphis, so maybe they'll make me look stupid again.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Starters: Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic, Kyle Lowry, Mike Miller
Bench: Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick, Tarence Kinsey, Juan Carlos Navarro, Mike Conley
Outlook: People are very mixed on the Grizz. Some think they will get right back in the playoff race, and that last year was a fluke with injuries and tanking and playing all young guys. Some think they're back to being the bad Grizzlies. I think this team has too much talent to go back to losing. They have a better lineup than two years ago, when they nearly won 50 games. They can benefit from all the teams that aren't ready.
Skeptics will tell you that those teams that Memphis had in the playoffs had veteran leaders and defenders. This team is slightly younger, but some of the key pieces are the same. And they have talent. And scoring. And they finally have a real post rotation, thanks to Darko. He still hasn't proven himself worthy of his draft pick, but he is a decent rebounder and defender, and really the first legitimate center that Gasol has had to work with. They have an energetic bench, bolstered by Spanish import Navarro, who can really light it up.
Two areas of concern: can they decide on point guard play? Conley was the impressive rookie, but he's a little green. Lowry was a late pick a year ago but has impressed. Damon Stoudamire is still here, with lots more experience, but he's never been a passer first. How do they balance trying to win with giving the young guys time? Also, they might want another big man. Swift and Warrick are athletic forwards, but they're not true post players. These are fairly important things to address, and I'm still not sure about their defensive, but I think they have enough to bounce back. They're my last team in, for now.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Starters: Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, Monta Ellis
Bench: Brandan Wright, Matt Barnes, Mikeal Pietrus, Marco Bellinelli, Troy Hudson
Outlook: After years and years of just almost making the playoffs, the Warriors finally made it in, and caused chaos once there. They got hot and shocked Dallas in the first, and then battled Utah. After a summer of expectations (and some KG rumors), they head in with more confidence than they've had since the early 90's.
But are they too confident? They did have to replace Jason Richardson, and they got on an incredible run last year. Some wonder if they can keep it up. I say that they won't be as dangerous but will make the playoffs with a solid team. It helps that the West has a lot of people not ready this year, but they'll be in. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they will be over .500 and fun to watch.
I'm not so worried about Richardson, even though he is a great scorer, because they have scoring. All of these guys can score. This year, I think they'll have a more reasonably-sized lineup, after going small so often last year. They have a nice rotation on the perimeter, and even though their frontcourt will be a bit small, I like Biedrins and I think Wright can play a little because all they want for him now is to run and dunk. Harrington and Barnes aren't big at the four, but they can shoot it.
Yes, there's always the distinct possibility that Davis gets hurt or Jackson acts up. But it seems like everyone likes this system, and I can't see them falling apart after playing so well last year. They can make it, and probably won't pull any upsets.
THE ALMOST CONTENDERS
Can they pull off some upsets? 50 wins is about the norm here.
DENVER NUGGETS
Starters: Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Allen Iverson, J. R. Smith
Bench: Nene Hilario, Steven Hunter, Linus Kleiza, Chucky Atkins
Outlook: Perhaps the hardest team to predict. They could make some noise and run far, or struggle to make the playoffs. The key is the health of their big men and everyone playing well together.
Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen. Martin is coming back from two major knee surgeries. Camby always seems to get hurt at some point. Nene has had troubles. The Nuggs have plenty of depth there, but it's a dropoff in talent without those three.
I do think Melo and Iverson will be okay together, because they realize that they can't do it alone. Bigger question is if J. R. Smith can do much. He was hot early last year, but cooled down considerably after Iverson came in. He doesn't need to do much, just shoot and add some points. If he doesn't go, the Nuggs will have nothing in the backcourt besides Iverson and Atkins.
I'm predicting a hit and miss for these guys. They'll have injuries and some things will go wrong. They'll win around 50 games and get back to the playoffs, but if they get healthy, they could upset some people.
UTAH JAZZ
Starters: Carlos Boozer, Andre Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer
Bench: Paul Millsap, Matt Harpring, Jarron Collins, Jason Hart, Gordon Giricek
Outlook: Utah finally came through last year, after several seasons in building. They made the playoffs and managed to sneak into the conference finals. On that success, they should be a major contender this year. Still, there are problems.
They have a gaping hole at off guard. They've drafted a lot of guys there the past few years, but haven't used them much so far. Brewer is a good athlete who might be able to change that. Kirilenko, for all the ruckus he raised over the summer, is back and motivated, but he's not really best used at the wing. I could see him traded still mainly just for roster balance, nothign personal. But then they wouldn't have their best defender.
They also have to worry about Boozer's health, although Millsap might make up for some of that now. I like this team, but I still don't think it can contend realistically for the big prizes.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Starters: Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Mike James, Tracy McGrady
Bench: Chuck Hayes, Bonzi Wells, Dikembe Mutombo, Rafer Alston, Steve Francis, Luther Head
Outlook: Okay, maybe THIS is the hardest team to predict. They made a ton of improvements to a team that could have gone far and just barely lost out. They managed to win 50 games in a season where they were racked by injuries to their key players; similar injuries kept them out of the playoffs a year before.
This is a deep and hungrier team that returns, and some think they could challange for a conference or even league title. I like a lot of their changes - Scola has been mentioned as a potential star for years and he also allows Hayes to move to the bench, where he is better off; James and draftee Aaron Brooks can shoot it better than their previous point guards; and Wells might give them more lift this year. They are now more assured to win 50 games and probably more.
The big question, aside from avoiding the usual injury bug: how do they balance the guards? Alston was the starter last year but played erratic, Head was a nice bench combo guard, James came back after being traded for Alston two years ago, and Brooks was drafted to add scoring. Then, on top of that, they surprised everyone by bringing back Francis, once the face of the franchise, at a cheap price. Five guys for basically one spot? Strange. I expected James to win it because he can shoot, but reports are that Alston is back in the mix despite his troubles. I guess they're just going to let the best guys play, no matter who they are.
If they can get consistent play from the one and four spots, and the bench, then they can go far. I think they will certainly end McGrady's playoff drought, and could make the conference finals if things go well. I don't know about anything beyond that, but they have some time. They're going to be tough this year and for a while.
THE GOLDEN TRIO
These guys are the cream of the league... they will likely have the three best records and produce the conference and league winner. As usual.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Starters: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, DeSanga Diop, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse
Bench: Nick Fazekas, Devin George, Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, Eddie Jones
Outlook: Everyone wants to know which team will show up: the one that won 67 games or the one that looked lost in the first round of the playoffs? I say that they are still a major title contender, but that loss exposed a lot of flaws. There's no question that they can win 60 games again and be a force. But will they struggle against running teams like Golden State and Phoenix?
A lot of their success depends on Dirk maintaing just enough of a post game to attract defenders. Very few teams have gotten far on jumpers and one-on-one perimeter matchups, which the Mavs rely on. They have a very solid team, built around Dirk, but no other star who can carry then, so he has to be on all the time to give them a chance. They made a few tweaks on teh roster to improve shooting and defense, but nothign major.
I'm wondering if their biggest advantage in the playoffs is how matchups work. If they can avoid Phoenix and Denver and teams that run, they might have a chance to go far. They had problems with the Warriors, sure, but I should also note that they're one of the few teams that can give the Spurs fits. If they keep up how they were playing, and get a few more breaks this time, maybe the bad times won't matter.
In fact, I think that was the irony of last year - they played so hard to get the first seed, so they wouldn't have to face San Antonio or Pheonix early on, but they ended up playing the hottest team with the worst possible matchup for them. So yes, luck has a say in this, even though they are flawed. The regular season is not as meaningless for them as you might think.....
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Starters: Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli
Bench: Robert Horry, Ime Udoka, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Michael Finley
Outlook: I got it right last year by picking these guys. Yeah, they seem to have it every other year. Although, it seems that a lot of people are calling for a repeat, for once. Marc Stein and Bill Simmons make the good point that the only reason to pick against a Spurs repeat is that they've never done it before.
But isn't there a reason why they haven't? I said last year that they had the most urgency of anyone in the league because they knew their window of opportunity with the current cast was closing fast. Can they come back with the same fire? They haven't before. Every team in the league has flaws, and they are the safe and pretty much obvious pick. If anything bad happens to Phoenix and/or Dallas, then they probably will repeat without trouble.
As much as I hate picking against them, I can see one team knocking them off...
PHOENIX SUNS
Starters: Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Raja Bell, Steve Nash
Bench: Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Alando Tucker, D. J. Strawberry
Here's why am I making the case for Phoenix over San Antonio:
1. The sense of urgency has been reversed. The Spurs won, giving a title to Finley and cementing their place in history. So what if they haven't repeated? They've won 3 in 6 years. That's a dynasty whether anyone wants to call it one or not.
Meanwhile, Steve Nash's clock is ticking fast. So is Grant Hill's. And the Suns know this is their last season with Shawn Marion. I think they're way more driven than ever before, and I give a slight edge to them there.
2. Did I mention how pissed the Suns were after that series? The Spurs are always motivated, but they will not have that kind fo fire this year.
3. One of the reasons why it's so hard to repeat is because the playoffs last so freaking long, the finals teams lose a lot of recouperating time. I think this has hurt the Spurs in the past - they've had to play an extra 10-12 games and have their offseason shortended by a whole month. That wears on you.
Granted, they had an easier time this year in the later rounds, handling the Jazz and Cavs, but they still had to play through June while others were getting ready.
4. Last year went down to the wire. Since then, the Suns have added Hill. Amare and Barbosa are still on the way up. Can you say that about San Antonio? Udoka will help, but most of their guys are slowing down.
5. Look, after last year's debacle, and then the Donaghy stuff, Phoenix cannot get a lot of bad calls or their fans will riot. Sure, the league is going to be careful with officiating, but wouldn't Phoenix get a little help? Especially when people are sick of watching the Spurs? And if Chicago or Detroit comes out of the east with no marquee star? I have a suspicious feeling that a certain someone needs the Suns to help restore image. Just saying....
Here's why I am making the case for Phoenix over Dallas:
1. They can go small and cause matchup problems easily.
2. They shoot better.
3. Marion is one of the few defenders flexible enough to guard Dirk.
4. Two years ago, the Suns gave Dallas a fight with no Amare and a hobbled Bell. Ric Bucher once said that they would have won it all if Bell was healthy, which I don't really buy, but anyway, their roster looks a lot better now. Dallas is basically the same.
Do I see problems in Phoenix? Sure. Hill and Nash are always a threat for injuries, and they're not that deep. Their owner is a total cheapskate who could have prevented any question of them ever losing with a few signings and a revesal from their policy to give up every draft pick possible. I did not like them losing Kurt Thomas, and if they signed a big man soon, it would ease my pain.
However, I think a part of this has to do with Diaw. He was a big contributor in the year Amare was hurt, got a big contract, but slipped last year. He didn'tt show up in great shape, but I think his main problem was that he doesn't work well as a wing player in this mix; that's why no one noticed him in Atlanta. Now that Hill is in, Barbosa is commanding a lot of minutes, and Thomas is gone, Diaw will be used only as a post player, which I think will help him. He can give Marion and Amare more breathers than recent. He's not the defender that Thomas was, but he should be better off as an undersized post than as a miscast wing.
Again, signing another shot blocker would greatly ease my pain. Phoenix was allegedly trying hard to convince P. J. Brown to play one more year for them. If thy can get him to Sun City, that would help. And I'd feel safe. But as for now, they are my very cautious pick for the 2008 NBA title.
POSSIBLE PLAYOFF BRACKET:
1. Dallas over 8. Memphis (or New Orleans, doesn't really matter)
2. Phoenix over 7. Golden State
3. San Antonio over 6. Denver
4. Houston over 5. Utah
-----------
1. Dallas over 4. Houston
2. Phoenix over 3. San Antonio
--------------
2. Phoenix over 1. Dallas
-----------
PHOENIX OVER (east winner)
Monday, October 22, 2007
NBA preview 2007, part one
So it's come to this...
as I said last week, it doesn't really feel like the season is starting because it feels like it never ended. This summer has been pretty busy and I feel so rushed into making predictions. I'm still not sure about anything. Several things that needed to be resolved (Kobe, Jermaine, Varejao & Pavlovic) still aren't. I suppose Marion and Kirkilenko are sticking for now. I don't know how Dallas, New York, Houston, Miami, and some others will clean up their huge rosters, but they have to, don't they? Good people may be out of a job.... perhaps we don't need to cut two teams. All my preparations are worthless (or not, since it's about filling that hole in your starting lineup).
Speaking of holes, there are a lot this year and I have one going on in my first ever roto league. Yes, I've never actually done fantasy before, mainly because I like to play with people I know and I can't put together 3 people who care about hoops, even for free. So I joined a public league and will hope that it means something to beat up on teenagers and fellow unemployeds I don't know. At least they care about basketball. We are a dying breed.
I feel good about four of the five spots on my starting lineup. The bench has flexibility and potential, which is good. Production must come.
Starters: Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Tim Duncan, Jermaine O'Neal, Richard Jefferson (or Andrea Bargnani)
Bench: Bargnani, Andre Miller, Walter Hermann, Jason Maxiell, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Mike Conley, Bobby Simmons, Kendrick Perkins
See, if this was a real team, I could bring Bargnani, Miller, and Hermann off the bench (with Perkins and Maxiell occasionally for muscle) and pwn. For fantasy, I have to hope Wade stays healthy and that all these young guys deliver. But now I have to fill 10 spots? That's no good.
I won't bore anyone with details, but I will link somewhere.
....... onto the real preview....
I'm breaking this up from its usual giant entry to several entries. I was going to do 30 posts for each team, but I want to start out generally, for now, and get more specific as the season starts.
I just found this link for the over/under predictions of wins from Vegas.... I'll post them here....
Dallas Mavericks 57.5
Phoenix Suns 56.5
San Antonio Spurs 56.5
Detroit Pistons 50.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 49.5
Chicago Bulls 48.5
Houston Rockets 48.5
Miami Heat 48.5
Utah Jazz 47.5
Denver Nuggets 46.5
Boston Celtics 45.5
New Jersey Nets 44.5
Toronto Raptors 43.5
Golden State Warriors 42.5
Los Angeles Lakers 42.5
Orlando Magic 41.5
New Orleans Hornets 40.5
Washington Wizards 40.5
Indiana Pacers 37.5
Sacramento Kings 36.5
Charlotte Bobcats 35.5
Milwaukee Bucks 35.5
New York Knicks 35.5
Los Angeles Clippers 34.5
Philadelphia 76ers 34.5
Atlanta Hawks 29.5
Memphis Grizzlies 28.5
Portland Trail Blazers 28.5
Seattle SuperSonics 28.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 27.5
Interesting. I always get nervous when I look at the Vegas odds and wonder what they're thinking.... usually, they know something I don't. That's why they're rich motherf**kers.
I think the Grizzlies are way too low (a lot of people have commented on this), and I would be scared to mess with the totals for Indiana, Clippers, Lakers, and Sacramento - realistically, with their talent, they all seem to be in the right place, but I can see all of them imploding and/or trading everyone away at some point. I think the Celts, Rockets, and Bulls are all slightly low, but they factored in the usual injury gamut. Hmmmm.
This one is from The Greek - it makes a little more sense in places...
Dallas 56.5
Phoenix 56
San Antonio 56
Houston 54
Denver 50
Detroit 50
Chicago 48.5
Boston 48
Utah 48
Cleveland 47.5
Orlando 46
Miami 44.5
New Jersey 43.5
Toronto 42.5
Golden State 42
Lakers 42
Washington 40
New Orleans 38.5
Atlanta 38
Milwaukee 36
New York 36
Sacramento 35.5
Charlotte 34.5
Memphis 34
Clippers 32.5
Indiana 32
Philadelphia 32
Portland 31.5
Seattle 28.5
Minnesota 20
What do they hate about Memphis that I don't see?
Anyway, here are my predictions of win totals. The way I see it, a lot of teams are grouped together, which I will differentiate in specifics later. But for now, the basics:
as of 10/22/ 07 - J LEO
WESTERN CONFERENCE (approx. wins)
1. Dallas 62
2. Phoenix 59
3. San Antonio 57
4. Houston 54
5. Utah 50
6. Denver 48
7. Golden State 44
8. Memphis 42
9. New Orleans 38
10. Lakers 34 (as of now)
11. Sacramento 32
12. Seattle 31
13. Portland 27
14. Clippers 22
15. Minnesota 20
EASTERN CONFRENCE
1. Chicago 54
2. Boston 52
3. Cleveland 51
4. Detroit 50
5. Miami 46
6. Toronto 45
7. Washington 44
8. New Jersey 44
9. Orlando 42
10. Milwaukee 38
11. Atlanta 36
12. New York 35
13. Charlotte 32
14. Indiana 30
15. Philadelphia 26
I feel good about that. It's been dated. I will date any revisions based on trades, injuries, and other developments.
But what about the playoffs? That will have to come later. I'm still struggling.... I think it will come down to matchups. Any one of those five teams in the East could make it to the finals, pending on who plays who, who's hot, who's hurt, and such. It sucks that three of the best teams play in the same division, which means that one or two of them are getting screwed in playoff time (just like last year when Cleveland had it easy and Chicago rough).
In the West, the golden triangle of Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio should still hold the conference (and league) winner. But who beats who head-to-head? I really liked Phoenix to come back hard after that raucous Spurs series, but their frugality is making me a little nervous. Dallas followed up a great season with a terrible playoffs, but was that just ill fortune? They are one of the few teams that has been able to hang with the Spurs. People are backing off the Spurs because they've never repeated, and they're older and less motivated, but they could still be the best team and they won't lose much.
And then there's the next tier of teams - Houston, Denver, and Utah. Some think Houston could go all the way to the top. Denver and Utah are feisty and could pull some upsets. Or, with injuries, they could all falter.
I won't get into the postseason until last, with more research. But for now, that's how I lay down the regular season.
AWARDS
MVP - Tim Duncan narrowly over LeBron James (also in the mix: Garnett, Nash, Nowitzki, maybe Kobe)
I think that there will be a host of people like Nash, Dirk, and LeBron, who do great work, but don't inspire voters. They've ignored Duncan the past few years and may reconsider if no one really steps up in a big way.
Dark horses: Voters love it if guys take new teams far, so KG (and Kobe if he moves and goes far) has a chance to impress. He has to split votes with Pierce though, which hurts him, and other faves like McGrady and Yao, plus all on Chicago and Detroit with their balanced attacks. I've heard Gilbert and Baron tossed out there if their teams impress, but that's a longshot. Dwyane Wade, if he stays healthy and gets Miami back near the top, is a great guy to watch here.
I would even go for Bosh if Toronto continues to prove me wrong, and Dwight if Orlando is in the race. I need better candidates. LeBron is the tentative favorite, and he can do it, but he has to keep Cleveland ahead of a better conference. I'll say Duncan for a lack of imagination.
ROY - Kevin Durant (is it even close?)
Durant seems to be the only rook anyone can think of, and why not? He's on a bad but not terrible team, he's ready to play, and he'll get tons of shots. I think he's the only rookie with a good chance to average more than 16 points. Some people are trying to come up with other candidates, but I see this as a Gasol/Paul-esque race without any major competition.
Some guys who could step up? Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, Al Thornton, Marco Bellinelli, Jason Smith, Mike Conley, Acie Law, Joakim Noah, Glen Davis
COACH - Marc Iavaroni, Memphis
It's usually a guy who takes a team supposed to be awful, and makes the playoffs, like Sam Mitchell last year. I guess the only surprise, according to Vegas, would be Memphis. I can see the head coaches of all of these teams getting it if they improve on wins: Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Sacramento. If Chicago wins more than 55 games and looks good, I think Scott Skiles would get a lot of support. But most likely, it's someone you aren't really thinkiing of right now.
DEF - Shawn Marion
Lost out by a little to Marcus Camby last year. Both of these guys are standout defenders on teams that run and gun, but if Camby was still noticed, why not Mr. Matrix? He deserves some more cred.
Other guys who could step up: Josh Smith, Dwight Howard, Samuel Dalembert (I like him and Reggie Evans to booster the hometown's D), KG (could be revitalized in the East)
6th man - Andres Noicioni
He's always been the prototypical sixth man, but he got lost the past few years because he was basically a starter for them. Now that they have some real forwards, he'll be strictly a sixth man, and they'll be better off. Leandro Barbosa is still going to be great, but is he still going to be recognized as a sixth man when he gets more minutes than several of Phoenix's starters?
Other guys who could step up: Anderson Varejao (if he decides to come back)
James Posey (only reliable guy on Boston bench?)
David Lee (if he doesn't start)
Jorge Garbajosa (same)
Jerry Stackhouse
Devin Harris or Jason Terry (if one sits)
Jameer Nelson or Carlos Arroyo (whomever sits)
Most Improved - LaMarcus Alrdidge
This is an easy choice. Aldridge came on strong when he finally got minutes, and will get plenty of time and shots this year with Zach Randolph gone (and Oden not ready). His numbers should go way up.
Some other guys came on late last year and could continue that, like Walter Hermann and Daniel Gibson. I also like Ronnie Brewer, Ty Thomas, Rajon Rondo, Andray Blatche, Gerald Green, Kendrick Perkins, Andrea Bargnani, Randy Foye, Mouhamed Sene, and even Andrew Bynum as possible sleepers.
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: STARTERS: Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady
WEST: BENCH: Carlos Boozer, Steve Nash, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Baron Davis, Pau Gasol, Shawn Marion
hon. mention / injury reserve: Amare Stoudemire, Josh Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul
EAST: STARTERS: Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade
EAST:BENCH: Chris Bosh, Chauncey Billups, Loul Deng, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, Jason Kidd
hon. mention / injury reserve: Vince Carter, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Ben Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Jermaine O'Neal (?)
ALL NBA
FIRST: Duncan, LeBron, Yao, Nash, Kobe
SECOND: Garnett, Nowitzki, Howard, Wade, McGrady
THIRD: Bosh, Carmelo, Boozer, Arenas, Billups
ALL ROOKIE
FIRST: Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Joakim Noah
SECOND: Acie Law, Jason Smith, Al Thornton, Corey Brewer, Marco Bellinelli
WATCH FOR (NOT READY?): Yi Jianlin, Thaddeous Young, Spencer Hawes, Brandan Wright, Morris Almond
WATCH FOR (NEED TIME): Mike Conley, Juan Carlos Navarro, Kyrrylo Fesenko, Julian Wright, Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Jared Dudley
ALL DEFENSE
FIRST: Shawn Marion, Josh Smith, Marcus Camby, Kevin Garnett, Bruce Bowen
SECOND: Tim Duncan, Rasheed Wallace, Dwight Howard, Kirk Hinrich, Trevor Ariza
POSS: Sam Dalembert, Ty Thomas, Ben Wallace, Tyson Chandler, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Des Mason, Jeff Foster, Andre Iguodala, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Devin Brown
and you knew it.....
THE ALL-UGLY TEAM
Captain: Sam Cassell ........... (honorary: Tyrone Hill)
Promising Rookie: Oleksiy Pecherov (has been compared to Stewie Griffin)
Starters: Cassell, Reggie Evans, Mehmet Okur, Charlie "The Hills Have Eyes" Villanueva, Hedo Turkoglu
Bench: Ben Wallace, Chris Kamen, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry, Darrell Armstrong, Bo Outlaw, Walter Hermann (not really ugly but bizarre looking)
Yup. More specific team previews coming up.
as I said last week, it doesn't really feel like the season is starting because it feels like it never ended. This summer has been pretty busy and I feel so rushed into making predictions. I'm still not sure about anything. Several things that needed to be resolved (Kobe, Jermaine, Varejao & Pavlovic) still aren't. I suppose Marion and Kirkilenko are sticking for now. I don't know how Dallas, New York, Houston, Miami, and some others will clean up their huge rosters, but they have to, don't they? Good people may be out of a job.... perhaps we don't need to cut two teams. All my preparations are worthless (or not, since it's about filling that hole in your starting lineup).
Speaking of holes, there are a lot this year and I have one going on in my first ever roto league. Yes, I've never actually done fantasy before, mainly because I like to play with people I know and I can't put together 3 people who care about hoops, even for free. So I joined a public league and will hope that it means something to beat up on teenagers and fellow unemployeds I don't know. At least they care about basketball. We are a dying breed.
I feel good about four of the five spots on my starting lineup. The bench has flexibility and potential, which is good. Production must come.
Starters: Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Tim Duncan, Jermaine O'Neal, Richard Jefferson (or Andrea Bargnani)
Bench: Bargnani, Andre Miller, Walter Hermann, Jason Maxiell, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Mike Conley, Bobby Simmons, Kendrick Perkins
See, if this was a real team, I could bring Bargnani, Miller, and Hermann off the bench (with Perkins and Maxiell occasionally for muscle) and pwn. For fantasy, I have to hope Wade stays healthy and that all these young guys deliver. But now I have to fill 10 spots? That's no good.
I won't bore anyone with details, but I will link somewhere.
....... onto the real preview....
I'm breaking this up from its usual giant entry to several entries. I was going to do 30 posts for each team, but I want to start out generally, for now, and get more specific as the season starts.
I just found this link for the over/under predictions of wins from Vegas.... I'll post them here....
Dallas Mavericks 57.5
Phoenix Suns 56.5
San Antonio Spurs 56.5
Detroit Pistons 50.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 49.5
Chicago Bulls 48.5
Houston Rockets 48.5
Miami Heat 48.5
Utah Jazz 47.5
Denver Nuggets 46.5
Boston Celtics 45.5
New Jersey Nets 44.5
Toronto Raptors 43.5
Golden State Warriors 42.5
Los Angeles Lakers 42.5
Orlando Magic 41.5
New Orleans Hornets 40.5
Washington Wizards 40.5
Indiana Pacers 37.5
Sacramento Kings 36.5
Charlotte Bobcats 35.5
Milwaukee Bucks 35.5
New York Knicks 35.5
Los Angeles Clippers 34.5
Philadelphia 76ers 34.5
Atlanta Hawks 29.5
Memphis Grizzlies 28.5
Portland Trail Blazers 28.5
Seattle SuperSonics 28.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 27.5
Interesting. I always get nervous when I look at the Vegas odds and wonder what they're thinking.... usually, they know something I don't. That's why they're rich motherf**kers.
I think the Grizzlies are way too low (a lot of people have commented on this), and I would be scared to mess with the totals for Indiana, Clippers, Lakers, and Sacramento - realistically, with their talent, they all seem to be in the right place, but I can see all of them imploding and/or trading everyone away at some point. I think the Celts, Rockets, and Bulls are all slightly low, but they factored in the usual injury gamut. Hmmmm.
This one is from The Greek - it makes a little more sense in places...
Dallas 56.5
Phoenix 56
San Antonio 56
Houston 54
Denver 50
Detroit 50
Chicago 48.5
Boston 48
Utah 48
Cleveland 47.5
Orlando 46
Miami 44.5
New Jersey 43.5
Toronto 42.5
Golden State 42
Lakers 42
Washington 40
New Orleans 38.5
Atlanta 38
Milwaukee 36
New York 36
Sacramento 35.5
Charlotte 34.5
Memphis 34
Clippers 32.5
Indiana 32
Philadelphia 32
Portland 31.5
Seattle 28.5
Minnesota 20
What do they hate about Memphis that I don't see?
Anyway, here are my predictions of win totals. The way I see it, a lot of teams are grouped together, which I will differentiate in specifics later. But for now, the basics:
as of 10/22/ 07 - J LEO
WESTERN CONFERENCE (approx. wins)
1. Dallas 62
2. Phoenix 59
3. San Antonio 57
4. Houston 54
5. Utah 50
6. Denver 48
7. Golden State 44
8. Memphis 42
9. New Orleans 38
10. Lakers 34 (as of now)
11. Sacramento 32
12. Seattle 31
13. Portland 27
14. Clippers 22
15. Minnesota 20
EASTERN CONFRENCE
1. Chicago 54
2. Boston 52
3. Cleveland 51
4. Detroit 50
5. Miami 46
6. Toronto 45
7. Washington 44
8. New Jersey 44
9. Orlando 42
10. Milwaukee 38
11. Atlanta 36
12. New York 35
13. Charlotte 32
14. Indiana 30
15. Philadelphia 26
I feel good about that. It's been dated. I will date any revisions based on trades, injuries, and other developments.
But what about the playoffs? That will have to come later. I'm still struggling.... I think it will come down to matchups. Any one of those five teams in the East could make it to the finals, pending on who plays who, who's hot, who's hurt, and such. It sucks that three of the best teams play in the same division, which means that one or two of them are getting screwed in playoff time (just like last year when Cleveland had it easy and Chicago rough).
In the West, the golden triangle of Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio should still hold the conference (and league) winner. But who beats who head-to-head? I really liked Phoenix to come back hard after that raucous Spurs series, but their frugality is making me a little nervous. Dallas followed up a great season with a terrible playoffs, but was that just ill fortune? They are one of the few teams that has been able to hang with the Spurs. People are backing off the Spurs because they've never repeated, and they're older and less motivated, but they could still be the best team and they won't lose much.
And then there's the next tier of teams - Houston, Denver, and Utah. Some think Houston could go all the way to the top. Denver and Utah are feisty and could pull some upsets. Or, with injuries, they could all falter.
I won't get into the postseason until last, with more research. But for now, that's how I lay down the regular season.
AWARDS
MVP - Tim Duncan narrowly over LeBron James (also in the mix: Garnett, Nash, Nowitzki, maybe Kobe)
I think that there will be a host of people like Nash, Dirk, and LeBron, who do great work, but don't inspire voters. They've ignored Duncan the past few years and may reconsider if no one really steps up in a big way.
Dark horses: Voters love it if guys take new teams far, so KG (and Kobe if he moves and goes far) has a chance to impress. He has to split votes with Pierce though, which hurts him, and other faves like McGrady and Yao, plus all on Chicago and Detroit with their balanced attacks. I've heard Gilbert and Baron tossed out there if their teams impress, but that's a longshot. Dwyane Wade, if he stays healthy and gets Miami back near the top, is a great guy to watch here.
I would even go for Bosh if Toronto continues to prove me wrong, and Dwight if Orlando is in the race. I need better candidates. LeBron is the tentative favorite, and he can do it, but he has to keep Cleveland ahead of a better conference. I'll say Duncan for a lack of imagination.
ROY - Kevin Durant (is it even close?)
Durant seems to be the only rook anyone can think of, and why not? He's on a bad but not terrible team, he's ready to play, and he'll get tons of shots. I think he's the only rookie with a good chance to average more than 16 points. Some people are trying to come up with other candidates, but I see this as a Gasol/Paul-esque race without any major competition.
Some guys who could step up? Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, Al Thornton, Marco Bellinelli, Jason Smith, Mike Conley, Acie Law, Joakim Noah, Glen Davis
COACH - Marc Iavaroni, Memphis
It's usually a guy who takes a team supposed to be awful, and makes the playoffs, like Sam Mitchell last year. I guess the only surprise, according to Vegas, would be Memphis. I can see the head coaches of all of these teams getting it if they improve on wins: Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Sacramento. If Chicago wins more than 55 games and looks good, I think Scott Skiles would get a lot of support. But most likely, it's someone you aren't really thinkiing of right now.
DEF - Shawn Marion
Lost out by a little to Marcus Camby last year. Both of these guys are standout defenders on teams that run and gun, but if Camby was still noticed, why not Mr. Matrix? He deserves some more cred.
Other guys who could step up: Josh Smith, Dwight Howard, Samuel Dalembert (I like him and Reggie Evans to booster the hometown's D), KG (could be revitalized in the East)
6th man - Andres Noicioni
He's always been the prototypical sixth man, but he got lost the past few years because he was basically a starter for them. Now that they have some real forwards, he'll be strictly a sixth man, and they'll be better off. Leandro Barbosa is still going to be great, but is he still going to be recognized as a sixth man when he gets more minutes than several of Phoenix's starters?
Other guys who could step up: Anderson Varejao (if he decides to come back)
James Posey (only reliable guy on Boston bench?)
David Lee (if he doesn't start)
Jorge Garbajosa (same)
Jerry Stackhouse
Devin Harris or Jason Terry (if one sits)
Jameer Nelson or Carlos Arroyo (whomever sits)
Most Improved - LaMarcus Alrdidge
This is an easy choice. Aldridge came on strong when he finally got minutes, and will get plenty of time and shots this year with Zach Randolph gone (and Oden not ready). His numbers should go way up.
Some other guys came on late last year and could continue that, like Walter Hermann and Daniel Gibson. I also like Ronnie Brewer, Ty Thomas, Rajon Rondo, Andray Blatche, Gerald Green, Kendrick Perkins, Andrea Bargnani, Randy Foye, Mouhamed Sene, and even Andrew Bynum as possible sleepers.
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: STARTERS: Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady
WEST: BENCH: Carlos Boozer, Steve Nash, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Baron Davis, Pau Gasol, Shawn Marion
hon. mention / injury reserve: Amare Stoudemire, Josh Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul
EAST: STARTERS: Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade
EAST:BENCH: Chris Bosh, Chauncey Billups, Loul Deng, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, Jason Kidd
hon. mention / injury reserve: Vince Carter, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Ben Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Jermaine O'Neal (?)
ALL NBA
FIRST: Duncan, LeBron, Yao, Nash, Kobe
SECOND: Garnett, Nowitzki, Howard, Wade, McGrady
THIRD: Bosh, Carmelo, Boozer, Arenas, Billups
ALL ROOKIE
FIRST: Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Luis Scola, Jeff Green, Joakim Noah
SECOND: Acie Law, Jason Smith, Al Thornton, Corey Brewer, Marco Bellinelli
WATCH FOR (NOT READY?): Yi Jianlin, Thaddeous Young, Spencer Hawes, Brandan Wright, Morris Almond
WATCH FOR (NEED TIME): Mike Conley, Juan Carlos Navarro, Kyrrylo Fesenko, Julian Wright, Glen Davis, Gabe Pruitt, Jared Dudley
ALL DEFENSE
FIRST: Shawn Marion, Josh Smith, Marcus Camby, Kevin Garnett, Bruce Bowen
SECOND: Tim Duncan, Rasheed Wallace, Dwight Howard, Kirk Hinrich, Trevor Ariza
POSS: Sam Dalembert, Ty Thomas, Ben Wallace, Tyson Chandler, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Des Mason, Jeff Foster, Andre Iguodala, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Devin Brown
and you knew it.....
THE ALL-UGLY TEAM
Captain: Sam Cassell ........... (honorary: Tyrone Hill)
Promising Rookie: Oleksiy Pecherov (has been compared to Stewie Griffin)
Starters: Cassell, Reggie Evans, Mehmet Okur, Charlie "The Hills Have Eyes" Villanueva, Hedo Turkoglu
Bench: Ben Wallace, Chris Kamen, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry, Darrell Armstrong, Bo Outlaw, Walter Hermann (not really ugly but bizarre looking)
Yup. More specific team previews coming up.
Saturday, June 16, 2007
spurious finals recap
Thanks, Cleveland. Way to make a series out of it. I thought you could steal one or two games at home. Maybe LeBron would have a big game, get some class, use the home advantage. No. You only proved how huge the gap is between conferences.
Some things to learn from this series:
ON THE CAVS
- Cleveland needed a guard who could hit open threes and defend. That's it. I thought drafting Daniel Gibson was a steal, because all the things he lost value for in school were offset. He isn't a true passer, but he doesn't have to be here. He stepped up, even if the Spurs exposed him as not yet ready, and he should be the guy next year. But why did it take them so long to give him minutes? Anyway, his playoff performance eases things for them
- They need another shooter, since LeBron is a better passer than scorer and can't handle all of it. I still can't believe that Ray Allen and Michael Redd turned them down so forcefully - is it worth all that money to be on a bad team in a smaller market (as Seattle will soon be gone)? Stupid. Maybe they can swing a deal with Seattle now... if only they had anyone to offer.
- They've been happy for the past few years that big Z has been healthy. It's been amazing that he kept getting hurt year after year, it looked hopeless, and then suddenly he had 4 or 5 years in a row of being fine. Bizarre. BUT NOW, they probably want to start fazing him out. He's too slow, and they had their best success when they went smaller and used Varejao. They can easily pick up a backup big man who can hit jumpers if they want that.
- Going along with that, Varejao is a restricted free agent. He's a nice backup, with great energy, but do they shell out cash? Well, Z and Donyell Marshall are getting old....
- Essentially, unless the conference suddenly gets much better, they're in good shape. They should see what deals are possible, but they're still the class of the east... if there is any class.
ON THE SPURS
- What do you compain about? They got it done. They're one of the best and most underappreciated teams ever. This is how the greats are - maybe they don't win three in a row, but over the course of a decade, they get a couple. Magic's Lakers only repeated once. Bird's Celtics never did. We think of them as great, but not these guys. The Bulls-Rockets-Bulls-Lakers teams get more press because they did it consecutively, and repeating is the hardest thing to do, but still... don't front on the Spurs.
- They have some changes to make. Horry is getting old. Finley is and he might leave. Udrih isn't their plan at backup anymore. Matt Bonner did nothing. Okay, okay... so these are all supporting guys, and their core is fine, I know. I'm guessing they'll figure something out. They've got the best front office in the league. Plus, they drafted some foreign guys whom they haven't even brought in yet, and given their track record, you have to think they'll be ok.
- Still, I wonder if they will do something dramatic. They know they dodged two major bullets with those questionable Suns ejections ( I think they still would have won that series, but it helped), and not facing Dallas at all. I picked them before the season, and again before teh playoffs, because I thought they had that drive to all get one more title before they got too old. So now what? They're geting more respect now, they won everything, and they've never repeated. Is that enough? With the Mavs, Suns, Jazz, and Rockets looking good (not to mention young teams like the Warriors, Nuggets, and potentially the Lakers if they make a deal?) They have to know this current group is going to fade soon.... but then, they don't panic.
- Glad they never traded Tony Parker. They need him and his unique style. He's not a true point but he proved how valuable he was to this team. With Ginobli and Duncan, they don't need him to be a pure passer. That's why trade scenarios are probably better left to minor adjustments. And I'm sure he's popular there. He might not work other places.
West is Best. Again. Can that change soon? Next time, we'll go more in depth.
Some things to learn from this series:
ON THE CAVS
- Cleveland needed a guard who could hit open threes and defend. That's it. I thought drafting Daniel Gibson was a steal, because all the things he lost value for in school were offset. He isn't a true passer, but he doesn't have to be here. He stepped up, even if the Spurs exposed him as not yet ready, and he should be the guy next year. But why did it take them so long to give him minutes? Anyway, his playoff performance eases things for them
- They need another shooter, since LeBron is a better passer than scorer and can't handle all of it. I still can't believe that Ray Allen and Michael Redd turned them down so forcefully - is it worth all that money to be on a bad team in a smaller market (as Seattle will soon be gone)? Stupid. Maybe they can swing a deal with Seattle now... if only they had anyone to offer.
- They've been happy for the past few years that big Z has been healthy. It's been amazing that he kept getting hurt year after year, it looked hopeless, and then suddenly he had 4 or 5 years in a row of being fine. Bizarre. BUT NOW, they probably want to start fazing him out. He's too slow, and they had their best success when they went smaller and used Varejao. They can easily pick up a backup big man who can hit jumpers if they want that.
- Going along with that, Varejao is a restricted free agent. He's a nice backup, with great energy, but do they shell out cash? Well, Z and Donyell Marshall are getting old....
- Essentially, unless the conference suddenly gets much better, they're in good shape. They should see what deals are possible, but they're still the class of the east... if there is any class.
ON THE SPURS
- What do you compain about? They got it done. They're one of the best and most underappreciated teams ever. This is how the greats are - maybe they don't win three in a row, but over the course of a decade, they get a couple. Magic's Lakers only repeated once. Bird's Celtics never did. We think of them as great, but not these guys. The Bulls-Rockets-Bulls-Lakers teams get more press because they did it consecutively, and repeating is the hardest thing to do, but still... don't front on the Spurs.
- They have some changes to make. Horry is getting old. Finley is and he might leave. Udrih isn't their plan at backup anymore. Matt Bonner did nothing. Okay, okay... so these are all supporting guys, and their core is fine, I know. I'm guessing they'll figure something out. They've got the best front office in the league. Plus, they drafted some foreign guys whom they haven't even brought in yet, and given their track record, you have to think they'll be ok.
- Still, I wonder if they will do something dramatic. They know they dodged two major bullets with those questionable Suns ejections ( I think they still would have won that series, but it helped), and not facing Dallas at all. I picked them before the season, and again before teh playoffs, because I thought they had that drive to all get one more title before they got too old. So now what? They're geting more respect now, they won everything, and they've never repeated. Is that enough? With the Mavs, Suns, Jazz, and Rockets looking good (not to mention young teams like the Warriors, Nuggets, and potentially the Lakers if they make a deal?) They have to know this current group is going to fade soon.... but then, they don't panic.
- Glad they never traded Tony Parker. They need him and his unique style. He's not a true point but he proved how valuable he was to this team. With Ginobli and Duncan, they don't need him to be a pure passer. That's why trade scenarios are probably better left to minor adjustments. And I'm sure he's popular there. He might not work other places.
West is Best. Again. Can that change soon? Next time, we'll go more in depth.
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