NBA season preview, part three

Now it's time to look at the actual contenders. These teams will be making the playoffs or getting close. First up is the West, where I see three levels of teams. The first group will fight for the last two playoff spots and win between 36-46 games. The second group has the most elasticity - they could sneak into the conference finals if everything goes right, or they could fall if they have injuries or fighting. They should all win about 50. The last group is the big three that will probably be the best in the whole league, winning more than 55 and giving us the conference (and league) champ.

THE RACE FOR THE LAST TWO

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Starters: Ronny Turiaf, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant

Bench: Brian Cook, Luke Walton, Chris Mihm, Jordan Farmar, Maurice Evans

Outlook: Yeah, yeah, it all depends on Kobe. He's been the whole team for the past few years, so obviously, whatever he does directs how they're going. Right now, this team is probably good enough to win 45 games and slip into the playoffs. But does anyone really expect them to be the same once the season ends?

It will be interesting, aside form seeing Kobe's attitude early on, to see if some of the young guys are stepping up. Bynum and Farmar will be counted upon to prove that they can produce consistently.... and to Kobe that he should stick around. They're the ones to watch - they could still try a trade for another star before they let Kobe go. How some of these tradable assets do is important. So watch Bynum. I will be.

More questions: again, why did they sign Radmanovic when Cook does the same things at the same position better and for less cash??? When will Odom get hurt? Can they throw in Javaris Crittendon and some of those forwards to sweeten a deal? Is Jim Buss sweating right now in some dark room, praying that Bynum will do something and make Kobe forget that they could have Jason Kidd right now? I don't have the answers. Perhaps no one does.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Starters: David West, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Chris Paul, Morris Peterson

Bench: Hilton Armstrong, Rasual Butler, Julian Wright, Bobby Jackson, Jannero Pargo, Melvin Ely

Outlook: After their impressive near-playoff run two years ago, the Hornets have been through a lot but were tabbed as a certain playoff team last year (by me and others). They didn't pull through, and now, I'm not sure if this team had as bright a future as I thought. Or maybe all the injuries last year held them back. Either way, they're in the mix this year.

My rooting interest in this team remains strong as they employ the only La Sallian in the league right now (Steven Smith was in Atlanta's camp but got cut). They have a likable mix of players, led by Paul, one of the best points around. West isn't an inside threat but still scores and grabs rebounds well. Chandler supplies d and boards. The only thing missing is scoring from the wing. Peja was supposed to add that but got hurt early on, which is scary because he's been missing an awful lot of games the past few years. They singed Mo Pete as insurance, and Wright could be very good soon, but they need Peja to go anywhere. Will he hold up for a whole season? I'd like to think so, but I doubt it.

For that, I rank them as the first team out of the playoffs, but if Peja stays healthy, they should be in. Even if he doesn't, they can take advantage of anyone slipping. Most experts have them ahead of Memphis, so maybe they'll make me look stupid again.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Starters: Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic, Kyle Lowry, Mike Miller

Bench: Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick, Tarence Kinsey, Juan Carlos Navarro, Mike Conley

Outlook: People are very mixed on the Grizz. Some think they will get right back in the playoff race, and that last year was a fluke with injuries and tanking and playing all young guys. Some think they're back to being the bad Grizzlies. I think this team has too much talent to go back to losing. They have a better lineup than two years ago, when they nearly won 50 games. They can benefit from all the teams that aren't ready.

Skeptics will tell you that those teams that Memphis had in the playoffs had veteran leaders and defenders. This team is slightly younger, but some of the key pieces are the same. And they have talent. And scoring. And they finally have a real post rotation, thanks to Darko. He still hasn't proven himself worthy of his draft pick, but he is a decent rebounder and defender, and really the first legitimate center that Gasol has had to work with. They have an energetic bench, bolstered by Spanish import Navarro, who can really light it up.

Two areas of concern: can they decide on point guard play? Conley was the impressive rookie, but he's a little green. Lowry was a late pick a year ago but has impressed. Damon Stoudamire is still here, with lots more experience, but he's never been a passer first. How do they balance trying to win with giving the young guys time? Also, they might want another big man. Swift and Warrick are athletic forwards, but they're not true post players. These are fairly important things to address, and I'm still not sure about their defensive, but I think they have enough to bounce back. They're my last team in, for now.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Starters: Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, Monta Ellis

Bench: Brandan Wright, Matt Barnes, Mikeal Pietrus, Marco Bellinelli, Troy Hudson

Outlook: After years and years of just almost making the playoffs, the Warriors finally made it in, and caused chaos once there. They got hot and shocked Dallas in the first, and then battled Utah. After a summer of expectations (and some KG rumors), they head in with more confidence than they've had since the early 90's.

But are they too confident? They did have to replace Jason Richardson, and they got on an incredible run last year. Some wonder if they can keep it up. I say that they won't be as dangerous but will make the playoffs with a solid team. It helps that the West has a lot of people not ready this year, but they'll be in. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they will be over .500 and fun to watch.

I'm not so worried about Richardson, even though he is a great scorer, because they have scoring. All of these guys can score. This year, I think they'll have a more reasonably-sized lineup, after going small so often last year. They have a nice rotation on the perimeter, and even though their frontcourt will be a bit small, I like Biedrins and I think Wright can play a little because all they want for him now is to run and dunk. Harrington and Barnes aren't big at the four, but they can shoot it.

Yes, there's always the distinct possibility that Davis gets hurt or Jackson acts up. But it seems like everyone likes this system, and I can't see them falling apart after playing so well last year. They can make it, and probably won't pull any upsets.

THE ALMOST CONTENDERS

Can they pull off some upsets? 50 wins is about the norm here.

DENVER NUGGETS

Starters: Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Allen Iverson, J. R. Smith

Bench: Nene Hilario, Steven Hunter, Linus Kleiza, Chucky Atkins

Outlook: Perhaps the hardest team to predict. They could make some noise and run far, or struggle to make the playoffs. The key is the health of their big men and everyone playing well together.

Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen. Martin is coming back from two major knee surgeries. Camby always seems to get hurt at some point. Nene has had troubles. The Nuggs have plenty of depth there, but it's a dropoff in talent without those three.

I do think Melo and Iverson will be okay together, because they realize that they can't do it alone. Bigger question is if J. R. Smith can do much. He was hot early last year, but cooled down considerably after Iverson came in. He doesn't need to do much, just shoot and add some points. If he doesn't go, the Nuggs will have nothing in the backcourt besides Iverson and Atkins.

I'm predicting a hit and miss for these guys. They'll have injuries and some things will go wrong. They'll win around 50 games and get back to the playoffs, but if they get healthy, they could upset some people.

UTAH JAZZ

Starters: Carlos Boozer, Andre Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer

Bench: Paul Millsap, Matt Harpring, Jarron Collins, Jason Hart, Gordon Giricek

Outlook: Utah finally came through last year, after several seasons in building. They made the playoffs and managed to sneak into the conference finals. On that success, they should be a major contender this year. Still, there are problems.

They have a gaping hole at off guard. They've drafted a lot of guys there the past few years, but haven't used them much so far. Brewer is a good athlete who might be able to change that. Kirilenko, for all the ruckus he raised over the summer, is back and motivated, but he's not really best used at the wing. I could see him traded still mainly just for roster balance, nothign personal. But then they wouldn't have their best defender.

They also have to worry about Boozer's health, although Millsap might make up for some of that now. I like this team, but I still don't think it can contend realistically for the big prizes.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Starters: Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Mike James, Tracy McGrady

Bench: Chuck Hayes, Bonzi Wells, Dikembe Mutombo, Rafer Alston, Steve Francis, Luther Head

Outlook: Okay, maybe THIS is the hardest team to predict. They made a ton of improvements to a team that could have gone far and just barely lost out. They managed to win 50 games in a season where they were racked by injuries to their key players; similar injuries kept them out of the playoffs a year before.

This is a deep and hungrier team that returns, and some think they could challange for a conference or even league title. I like a lot of their changes - Scola has been mentioned as a potential star for years and he also allows Hayes to move to the bench, where he is better off; James and draftee Aaron Brooks can shoot it better than their previous point guards; and Wells might give them more lift this year. They are now more assured to win 50 games and probably more.

The big question, aside from avoiding the usual injury bug: how do they balance the guards? Alston was the starter last year but played erratic, Head was a nice bench combo guard, James came back after being traded for Alston two years ago, and Brooks was drafted to add scoring. Then, on top of that, they surprised everyone by bringing back Francis, once the face of the franchise, at a cheap price. Five guys for basically one spot? Strange. I expected James to win it because he can shoot, but reports are that Alston is back in the mix despite his troubles. I guess they're just going to let the best guys play, no matter who they are.

If they can get consistent play from the one and four spots, and the bench, then they can go far. I think they will certainly end McGrady's playoff drought, and could make the conference finals if things go well. I don't know about anything beyond that, but they have some time. They're going to be tough this year and for a while.

THE GOLDEN TRIO

These guys are the cream of the league... they will likely have the three best records and produce the conference and league winner. As usual.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Starters: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, DeSanga Diop, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse

Bench: Nick Fazekas, Devin George, Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, Eddie Jones

Outlook: Everyone wants to know which team will show up: the one that won 67 games or the one that looked lost in the first round of the playoffs? I say that they are still a major title contender, but that loss exposed a lot of flaws. There's no question that they can win 60 games again and be a force. But will they struggle against running teams like Golden State and Phoenix?

A lot of their success depends on Dirk maintaing just enough of a post game to attract defenders. Very few teams have gotten far on jumpers and one-on-one perimeter matchups, which the Mavs rely on. They have a very solid team, built around Dirk, but no other star who can carry then, so he has to be on all the time to give them a chance. They made a few tweaks on teh roster to improve shooting and defense, but nothign major.

I'm wondering if their biggest advantage in the playoffs is how matchups work. If they can avoid Phoenix and Denver and teams that run, they might have a chance to go far. They had problems with the Warriors, sure, but I should also note that they're one of the few teams that can give the Spurs fits. If they keep up how they were playing, and get a few more breaks this time, maybe the bad times won't matter.

In fact, I think that was the irony of last year - they played so hard to get the first seed, so they wouldn't have to face San Antonio or Pheonix early on, but they ended up playing the hottest team with the worst possible matchup for them. So yes, luck has a say in this, even though they are flawed. The regular season is not as meaningless for them as you might think.....

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Starters: Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli

Bench: Robert Horry, Ime Udoka, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Michael Finley

Outlook: I got it right last year by picking these guys. Yeah, they seem to have it every other year. Although, it seems that a lot of people are calling for a repeat, for once. Marc Stein and Bill Simmons make the good point that the only reason to pick against a Spurs repeat is that they've never done it before.

But isn't there a reason why they haven't? I said last year that they had the most urgency of anyone in the league because they knew their window of opportunity with the current cast was closing fast. Can they come back with the same fire? They haven't before. Every team in the league has flaws, and they are the safe and pretty much obvious pick. If anything bad happens to Phoenix and/or Dallas, then they probably will repeat without trouble.

As much as I hate picking against them, I can see one team knocking them off...

PHOENIX SUNS

Starters: Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Raja Bell, Steve Nash

Bench: Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Alando Tucker, D. J. Strawberry

Here's why am I making the case for Phoenix over San Antonio:

1. The sense of urgency has been reversed. The Spurs won, giving a title to Finley and cementing their place in history. So what if they haven't repeated? They've won 3 in 6 years. That's a dynasty whether anyone wants to call it one or not.

Meanwhile, Steve Nash's clock is ticking fast. So is Grant Hill's. And the Suns know this is their last season with Shawn Marion. I think they're way more driven than ever before, and I give a slight edge to them there.

2. Did I mention how pissed the Suns were after that series? The Spurs are always motivated, but they will not have that kind fo fire this year.

3. One of the reasons why it's so hard to repeat is because the playoffs last so freaking long, the finals teams lose a lot of recouperating time. I think this has hurt the Spurs in the past - they've had to play an extra 10-12 games and have their offseason shortended by a whole month. That wears on you.

Granted, they had an easier time this year in the later rounds, handling the Jazz and Cavs, but they still had to play through June while others were getting ready.

4. Last year went down to the wire. Since then, the Suns have added Hill. Amare and Barbosa are still on the way up. Can you say that about San Antonio? Udoka will help, but most of their guys are slowing down.

5. Look, after last year's debacle, and then the Donaghy stuff, Phoenix cannot get a lot of bad calls or their fans will riot. Sure, the league is going to be careful with officiating, but wouldn't Phoenix get a little help? Especially when people are sick of watching the Spurs? And if Chicago or Detroit comes out of the east with no marquee star? I have a suspicious feeling that a certain someone needs the Suns to help restore image. Just saying....

Here's why I am making the case for Phoenix over Dallas:

1. They can go small and cause matchup problems easily.

2. They shoot better.

3. Marion is one of the few defenders flexible enough to guard Dirk.

4. Two years ago, the Suns gave Dallas a fight with no Amare and a hobbled Bell. Ric Bucher once said that they would have won it all if Bell was healthy, which I don't really buy, but anyway, their roster looks a lot better now. Dallas is basically the same.

Do I see problems in Phoenix? Sure. Hill and Nash are always a threat for injuries, and they're not that deep. Their owner is a total cheapskate who could have prevented any question of them ever losing with a few signings and a revesal from their policy to give up every draft pick possible. I did not like them losing Kurt Thomas, and if they signed a big man soon, it would ease my pain.

However, I think a part of this has to do with Diaw. He was a big contributor in the year Amare was hurt, got a big contract, but slipped last year. He didn'tt show up in great shape, but I think his main problem was that he doesn't work well as a wing player in this mix; that's why no one noticed him in Atlanta. Now that Hill is in, Barbosa is commanding a lot of minutes, and Thomas is gone, Diaw will be used only as a post player, which I think will help him. He can give Marion and Amare more breathers than recent. He's not the defender that Thomas was, but he should be better off as an undersized post than as a miscast wing.

Again, signing another shot blocker would greatly ease my pain. Phoenix was allegedly trying hard to convince P. J. Brown to play one more year for them. If thy can get him to Sun City, that would help. And I'd feel safe. But as for now, they are my very cautious pick for the 2008 NBA title.

POSSIBLE PLAYOFF BRACKET:

1. Dallas over 8. Memphis (or New Orleans, doesn't really matter)

2. Phoenix over 7. Golden State

3. San Antonio over 6. Denver

4. Houston over 5. Utah
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1. Dallas over 4. Houston

2. Phoenix over 3. San Antonio
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2. Phoenix over 1. Dallas
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PHOENIX OVER (east winner)