NBA preview, part two

In this portion, I am previewing teams one by one. This year, it seems like they can all be divided into groups. Let's start off with the lottery bound dregs. There are a lot this year, despite all the progress made over the summer. That's not necessarily a bad thing.... a lot of these teams can have bright futures if they work it out right. Some of them are in the rebuilding mode and they know it. Some are trying to get better and build for the playoffs.

Interestingly, most of the teams strictly in rebuilding mode are in the West, while in the East, everyone thinks they have a shot at the playoffs. I guess this is based on last year's rampant tanking in the East (and West) to get the draft. Since this draft is still relatively unknown, with no superstars yet, most teams have more incentive to prove they're ready. This ought to make for a much more interesting playoff race.

In the West, the last two playoff spots will be a fun race to watch as the Lakers (if they don't trade Kobe and get wild), Warriors, Grizzlies, and Hornets will battle it out, barring anything crazy. In the East, every team strengthened itself (except maybe Cleveland and Indiana), and, after those top four or five teams, everyone thinks they have a shot at the playoffs.

First group up: the lonesome crowded West basement. Teams in this group have injuries or youth movements going on after trading away big names. In a few years, they could all be good if they keep building. At least these teams have more hope than the cellar-dwellers of the past. No mid-90's Clippers or Kings or Timberwolves here...

... although those teams are all actually here. Alas.

Teams in this group should win between 20-35 games. Honestly, it's hard for me to put them in order. I gave you my projected win totals for all last time, but they could all win like 29 games and I wouldn't be surprised.

LONESOME CROWDED WEST BASEMENT

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Starters: Ryan Gomes, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson, Randy Foye, Greg Buckner

Bench: Wayne Simien, Craig Smith, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Rashad McCants

Outlook: In the first year post KG, the Wolves will suck. This much is known. If they sucked when KG was trying his damndest the past few years to win, they're definitely going to suck without him. But they have some nice young players, and they also have some vets who could bring cap relief or draft picks in trades. They need to jettison all those guys and start over.

They also need to see who's worth keeping. Jefferson, the key piece of the KG deal, is a sure bet to be a good post player. Randy Foye looked good last year, and his progress as a point should continue. They need to see if Brewer, McCants, or Green can step up and help them on the wing. And can Telfair do anything? If so, they might have more pieces in place than we thought. But it won't happen this year.

Semi-update: Right before I posted this, I heard about the Miami trade. That's good; this is what they need to do. They gave up Mark Blount and Ricky Davis for contracts that will expire a little sooner ('Toine, who will probably be bought out), a draft pick, and Simien, who might be a decent forward. They'll find out. Now if they could only move Buckner, Juwon Howard, and Marko Jaric, they might get rid of all those terrible signings McHale made.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Starters: Tim Thomas (Elton Brand might come back), Corey Magette, Chris Kamen, Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobely

Bench: Al Thornton, Josh Powell, Brevin Knight, Quentin Ross, Ruben Patterson

Outlook: After narrowly missing the playoffs last year, the Clippers figured they would make a few small moves and try again. Even though Shaun Livingston suffered a terrible injury, they hoped to add a few veterans and maybe make another run. Then Elton Brand went down, and even though he wants to come back late in the year, the Clippers are a mess without him.

Without those two guys, this roster quickly went downhill. Magette is the only reliable scorer, and he's has issues with coaches for years. Knight is a solid replacement for a year, but with Cassell older and probably wanting out, he's the only real passer on the team. Patterson was an odd signing, as he does the same things Ross does, but he's older. Thomas is up and down and shouldn't be starting for anyone. Kamen took a major step backwards last year, and he doesn't have a backup to challenge him. Thornton was a nice pick, but he may be too similar to Magette in style.

Unless Brand gets back really soon, they're going to struggle. I don't know who will score points other than Magette, Thomas, and Mobely jacking it up. Not fun to watch. If this were another team, I might predict them to pull together and overcome adversity.

But it's the Clippers.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Starters: LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Joel Pryzbilla, Jarret Jack, Brandon Roy

Bench: Channing Frye, Martell Webster, Steve Blake, James Jones

Outlook: We all know they're hoping Oden is NOT the next Sam Bowie and that they're pissed that they will miss out on the playoffs. In truth, I never thought they were playoff material this year, even if Oden came in and did well. Now, without him, there's no way. they're too green.

They still have a good future, though. Aldridge will get plenty of time and experience this year, as will Webster and Outlaw. They can figure out their point guard situation, as four guys have all impressed, but none looks like a starter yet. Roy will continue to assert himself as one of the best young guards. Maybe Frye and Josh McRoberts can get some valuable burn.

This might be a lost year for Portland, but they shouldn't be so mad. Assuming Oden is okay, they will have a great foundation and they could use another wing in the draft. So don't tell me they're disappointed. All those people who bought season tickets to see a playoff team should have waited anyway.

SEATTLE SUPERSONICS

Starters: Chris Wilcox, Jeff Green, Robert Swift, Luke Ridnour, Kevin Durant

Bench: Nick Collison, Kurt Thomas, Wally Szczerbiak, Earl Watson, Delonte West

Outlook: The Sonics were happy to let Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen go, as they weren't getting them to the playoffs by themselves. They were even happier to get Durant, along with the very solid Green, in the draft. So even as this team deals with potential moving issues (note to owners: it's not worth it; JUST STAY THERE!) and inexperience, they've set themselves up nicely.

Durant will be the main scorer right form the beginning, to groom him for that role, but this team has lots of questions to also answer. Are any of these young centers worth it? Will anyone step up big at the point? Do they keep Wally and Kurt for the cap relief, or will they be able to find some nice trades?

The talent level on this team isn't bad, and they actually have nice depth, but they'll probably push out the veterans to give the young guys time. They should be a mid lottery team.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

Starters: Kenny Thomas, Ron Artest, Brad Miller, Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin

Bench: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Mikki Moore, Quincy Douby, John Salmons

Outlook: This is the real enigma of these lottery teams. They could completely fall apart and mutiny on their coach, or they could sneak into the playoffs. I don't know which will happen. They have talent, but a lot of their guys are old, injured, or burnt out. Or all three.

Last year, they never looked right, never jelled, and ended up closer to the bottom than the top. They were a late lottery team, but they could have fallen more with a few more losses. For a team picked to make the playoffs, and had done so since 1998, it was a disappointment. Thomas, Miller, and Abdur-Rahim are slowing and not worth their huge contracts. Artest and Bibby didn't seem to play with any fire. Martin was great and will be a great scorer for a long time, but he was the only bright spot.

So now what? They dumped Eric Musselman and brought in Reggie Theus, who was a popular guy but never seemed like coaching material. Will it change anything? Will they ship Bibby to Cleveland, as rumored so often lately? Could they trade Artest? Or will they pull it together and make a playoff run? I'm leaning towards a disaster, but you can never be sure with this team.

THE EASTERNS: SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE?

The East basement is hard to sort out as well because all of these teams now have incentive to win. And most of them have improved. Out of this group, I think Philly is the worst, while Milwaukee and Atlanta have a shot at reaching 40 wins. But to me, they could all win 34 games, and once again, it's hard to seperate them.

I say Philly and Indiana, even though they came the closest last year, have the worst shot. Indiana is in a state of flux and can't commit to rebuilding yet, even though they should. They could get close to the playoffs or blow it up. The hometowners, as much as it pains me, probably benefitted last year as one of the few teams in the East actually trying to win. It will be harder now. Everyone else could sneak into the playoffs if one of the contenders slips, or they could lose 50 again. Who knows...

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Starters: Reggie Evans, Kyle Korver, Sam Dalembert, Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala

Bench: Jason Smith, Willie Green, Thaddeous Young, Rodney Carney

Outlook: I don't think I've been as outraged at the old mates as I was last year. Well, as the blog title suggests, I guess it's not as bad as dumping Barkley and then drafting a frontline of two huge busts. At least they got some draft picks, cap space, and Andre Miller out of the Iverson deal. And they've drafted okay decently. I wanted them to tank, and tank hard, after the trade to get a front line star, but their late-season run inspired a lot of people and gave us all of Southeastern PA hope.

But will it mean anything? I think they were doing good because everyone they played had quit. Looking at talent, I don't see how they can contend for the playoffs with one scorer and nothing offensively in the post... and that scorer is not Iverson. Iggy stepped up and showed he could be a star last year, but do I expect him to get 25 a night? No way. He's good, but a franchise player is still needed to get this team on top.

I didn't understand the logic of taking a wing in the draft when they had a few, including their lottery pick from last year. But, Thaddeous Young was the best athlete available and has loads of potential, and there weren't any big men worth taking then. It would be nice if he develops as an atheltic counterpart to Iggy, since I think Korver and Green are better suited coming off the bench. I do like picking up Reggie Evans; he and Dalembert together will improve the D tremendously. They won't score, but rook Smith has a smooth jumper for a big man and will get playing time right away.

I don't expect any runs this year, but I would like to see Young and Smith get some time and for them to draft another big soon. Some guy from Kansas State is rated as the number two pick at power forward. I suppose I'll be checking in on them soon.

INDIANA PACERS

Starters: Jermaine O'Neal, Danny Granger, Jeff Foster, Jamaal Tinsley, Marquis Daniels

Bench: Ike Diogu, Troy Murphy, Shawne Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Travis Diener

Outlook: Not good. Indiana was supposed to be a lock for the playoffs, but couldn't get in despite lots of teams tanking and a lack of great teams. They were close, but if they didn't get in last year, they're not getting in this year. How did they go from 60 wins just a few years ago to this?

Two trades killed them: the Artest for Peja (hard to see him leave, although he's been hurt), which left them without an outside compliment to JO, and then the surprising Golden State mega-trade last year that changed things dramatically for each team. They wanted to dump Stephen Jackson, but in doing so, they were left without a starting two guard or a legitimate second scorer. It was JO and a very blah lineup. The one nice part of the deal was picking up Diogu, but why covet him when he's behind JO, Murphy, and Foster? He makes dealing JO a little easier, so why not just pull the plug?

This might be the worst backcourt in the league. Daniels is a decent backup, not a starter. Dunleavy is an overpaid shooter who can't play too much at guard because he will kill defensively. Tinsley used to be a decent starting point, but injuries have ruined him. He's barely played the past few years. Diener was signed on the cheap and can shoot it, but how will handle all those minutes when Tinsely inevitably goes down?

I was shocked that the Warriors could trade Murphy or Dunealvy after giving them hefty contracts, and Indiana has both of them now. Murphy could be a nice inside-out tandem with JO, but that's not enough. They have the pieces to make deals; JO and Foster will command good packages from contenders, and they're not worth much here anymore. Granger is very solid, but will never be a star. They've slowly deteriorated... I think their only choice is to pull teh plug. It's hard to do. But this team isn't going anywhere soon.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

Starters: Walter Hermann, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Ray Felton, Jason Richardson

Bench: Matt Carroll, Primoz Breznec, Ryan Hollins, Jeff McInnis, Jared Dudley

Outlook: After trading away their pick for Richardson and re-signing Wallace, a lot of people starting talking playoffs for the newest team. I wasn't so sure, but they certainly have made themselves better... but now they're struggling to find ways to keep everyone healthy. Sean May and Adam Morrsion are gone, and May was the only other true post threat besides Okafor. They were a borderline playoff team for me before that, and now, I think they're out.

It's ironic that they now have a glut of wings but no big men, as the first years of their existence, it was the opposite. They never had much perimeter scoring or depth. Richardson, honestly, is the first good shooting guard they've ever had. This lineup is decent, but they need some rebounding.

Still, this team is pregressing nicely and one Michael Jordan seems to have them in the right direction. With another big man in the draft (Roy Hibbert?) and continued development from Felton, and a full season of Hermann getting time, I think they'll be a threat next year. Not now, unless they're lucky.

NEW YORK KNICKS

Starters: Zach Randolph, Jared Jeffries, Eddy Curry, Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford

Bench: David Lee, Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson, Renaldo Balkman

Outlook: Ah, my favorite punchline, the Knicks. Quite a summer for them, eh? Isiah adds to his long list of embarassments, Marbury appears to be crazy, and yet they manage to trade Stevie Franchise for something and get some more young kids in. They have a decent team on paper, but will they mesh on court? I'm skeptical.

This is not a bad lineup in terms of talent. Curry and Randolph are good low post scorers, Balkman, Lee, and Jeffries can add defense and hustle, and Crawford and Q Rich can shoot it. But will it all fit? I don't know if Curry and Randolph can co-exist. I don't know how to find time for everyone. Lee is a great rebounder but will he play much? How do you balance Crawford and all the wings? And does any of it matter when Marbury is erratic?

They're too talented to lose big this year, but I don't see a playoff run unless a lot of teams above them trip or they all have miraculous changes in attitude. I'm not counting on that.

ATLANTA HAWKS

Starters: Al Horford, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Acie Law, Joe Johnson

Bench: Zaza Pachulia, Shelden Williams, Josh Childress, Speedy Claxton

Outlook: The best for the Hawks in years. Even though they kept making weird draft picsk, eventually, they figured it out and put together a nice team. I think they can challenge for a playoff spot this year, and for the future.

Horford is a big help down low. He has the skills to be a good four immediately. Marvin Williams is still developing, but he made strides last year and has the chance to play. Joe Johnson may not be a franchise guy, but he is an easy all-star pick. Childress, Shelden, and Claxton were struggling as starters but should make good subs.

Some questions: is Acie Law ready? He's got more offense than any other point, and he's not a teenager, so he should be able to contribute. Is Josh Smith ready for a way out? He's athletic as hell, but has clashed with coaches... but he is from here, and a fan favorite.

I like this team. I think they can go small and win some games with a fast lineup. The progress of the rookies and Smith's attitude will determine if they finally have a future.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Starters: Charlie Villanueva, Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Mo Williams, Michael Redd

Bench: Yi Jianlin, Desmond Mason, Charlie Bell, Dan Gadzuric

Outlook: After all the turmoil last season and during the draft, Milwuakee should be back in the running. Injuries killed them last year, but they still have a lot to worry about. Besides the testy situation with Yi, they have to find some defense and passing somewhere. This team can score in bunches, especially from outside, but they have to get some stops and boards to win.

Last year, it seemed like the Bucks spent a lot of time having Williams, Redd, and Bell chuck up shots while no one rebounded or defended. It didn't work. Williams surprised a lot of people by putting up decent scoring numbers after T.J. Ford left, but he needs to be more of a passer this year. He has scorers everywhere, and he needs to find them. Bogut must prove that he can give them something down low. Villanueva has to show the fire from his rookei year. Simmons and Mason just have to play D and get their shots when they can.

I'm still a little puzzled about the drafting of Yi. Along with the initial balking his camp pulled, he seems too much like their current big guys to help. He's more of a shooter and offensive force with not much d or rebounding. Villanueva, Bogut, and Gadzuric already did that. I wondered why they didn't go with Joakim Noah or Julian Wright, but they like his skills. They did bring in Michael Ruffin and Jake Voshkuhl for some muscle off the bench, but will they play much with Yi guaranteed time?

This team made the playoffs with a less talented but similar crew two years ago, and they can get close again if they play together. Redd is still a lights out shooter and they have the ability to score with anyone, but will they? I think they're the closest of this group but will fall just short of the postseason.