last leg, NBA season preview 2008

Finally, I'm down to the last quarter of this lengthy preview. I love lengthy previews. The only thing left is the Eastern playoff contenders. Weird thing is, I have 9 teams that are legitimate playoff threats... which means one of them is getting left out. Who will that be? It's hard to say this year. Almost every team improved itself, but they all have at least one significant flaw. Some of them benefited from a weaker conference last year (especially everyone in the Atlantic). Where do I put them?

I place them into two groups: the first group is the lower seeds. I think they could all win about 44 games, but that could stretch to 48 or 40 pending on injuries and such. The second group is the real contenders, or so I think.... I can always see one of the lower teams getting hot, but I'm pretty sure these teams are the contenders and can all win 50 games.

It works out evenly: 4 teams in the first group, 4 teams in the second, and one in the middle (Miami) who could go either way. Like I said in the west, perhaps the playoffs pairings will determine who makes it this year. Cleveland benefited a ton last year. Some teams might need a good draw to advance.


So the first group: 40-48 wins, a low seed, a first round loss in the playoffs, and a lottery pick for one of them.

THE MAYBES

ORLANDO MAGIC

Starters: Rashard Lewis, Trevor Ariza, Dwight Howard, Carlos Arroyo, J. J. Redick

Bench: Adonal Foyle, Hedo Turkoglu, Keyon Dooling, Jameer Nelson

Outlook: No team has such a wide range of expectations this year. They could miss the playoffs or win the division. I guess most expert don't see the Southeast as that strong and maybe they can win it with only 44 wins or so. I think they're on the edge of the playoffs, but I can't be certain.


I liked the Lewis signing initially... then when the dollars kept going up, I started to wonder. They didn't HAVE to dump Darko just to sign him; Darko was on his own terms. But they did, and didn't make any moves to get a big guy besides Foyle, a decent backup at best. Then, Tony Battie went down, and they are left with only one true post player in Mr. Howard. I expect him to be fantastic, but I'm not sure if they can board or defend as well this year.

Lewis brings much needed scoring, so that did help. I like this lineup from an offensive standpoint, as they added him and will use Redick more as shooters to space around Howard. Their two points have contrasting styles and can be changed if one goes cold. Ariza is a great defender who is going to get a lot of minutes, and in the east, they can probably still go small a lot. I'd just feel better about them if they had another big guy to help Howard down low.


TORONTO RAPTORS

Starters: Chris Bosh, Jason Kappono, Andrea Bargnani, T. J. Ford, Anthony Parker

Bench: Jorge Garbajosa, Carlos Delfino, Jose Calderon, Juan Dixon

Outlook: No team surprised me more than the Raps last season. I liked their progress from the dreaded Babcock years, but I thought it would take them a while to get back to the playoffs. Yet they did, and handily.

Now, I should be praising them, and I think Bryan Colangelo has done a wonderful, creative job of getting this team back on track. Still, I wonder how much of last season was based on everyone else giving up. Their division was terrible, and they didn't show much in the playoffs. I don't really get this roster, as Bosh is the only guy to fear, but it works, with a lot of depth and shooters to go along with their only star. If Bargnani keeps improving, they'll have a lethal inside-out big man combo like Utah.

I don't know if Kappono was worth the cash, or who I like better between Ford and Calderon. I keep thinking they need a real threat on the perimeter, but they have a lot of guys who can shoot it and they play together well. Once again, they could make me look stupid. But I'm willing to bet that they struggle just a little bit more this year.


WASHINGTON WIZARDS

Starters: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, Gilbert Arenas, DeShawn Stevenson

Bench: Andray Blatche, Darius Songalia, Antonio Daniels, Nick Young

Outlook: The Wizards have been almost contenders the past few years. They score a ton of points, they're fun to watch, but they have no D or inside game and lose early in the playoffs. I'd like to see them go farther, but with teams improving, I don't know how.

Once again, the key for this team is what they can get out of their big men. Haywood has always been inconsistent, Songalia didn't show much last year, and Etan Thomas is out, taking away muscle. Blatche has shown some good moves, but he's always in trouble for something. If he develops as a post player, they get a whole lot more dangerous.

I like their bench depth, and Young can shoot it. They might be able to move into the upper echelon this year if those things come together. But who's gonna D it up besides Stevenson? And how do Arenas and Jamison play in big contract years? These guys have always been gunners, and the temptation is there. I say they stay where they have been unless good things happen.


NEW JERSEY NETS

Starters: Nenad Kristic, Richard Jefferson, Jason Collins, Jason Kidd, Vince Carter

Bench: Sean Williams, Bostjan Nachbar, Jamaal Magliore, Marcus Williams, Antoine Wright

Outlook: The Nets keep tempting me each year. They have an eye-catching trio on the perimeter. They've got experience. Last year, it looked like they would finally have a big man that could score and take them back to the finals. Then he got hurt, they struggled, and they almost traded Kidd away. But once again, they came on strong at the end of the year, snuck into the sixth seed, and made it to the second round and gave Cleveland a scare.

So, this team can't be counted out. They've rallied from major injuries in the past few years around Kidd and Carter to make it into the playoffs. But can they be counted on? Since 2003, no conference finals. They're getting older. And yet, no one wants to bet against Kidd and a fully healthy team.

Kristic is thus a big key here. If he can stay healthy and build upon his strong opening to last year, they might have one last chance to get Kidd in June. They needed help down low, and they got some nice role players in Magliorre and Sean Williams to form a tough rebounding group with Collins. None of these guys are scorers, though, so Kristic has to be able to produce to keep the offense going.

It would also be a big help if Wright finally put it together. He was projected as a top ten pick in 2005, but the Nets haven't gotten anything out of him yet. They need him in case one of their big three goes down. He has the chance because there aren't any other guards off the bench right now. Nachabr showed some promise last year, and Marcus is a nice young point, but the Nets need some bench and post scoring if they want to be a real contender again.

MIAMI HEAT

Starters: Udonis Haslem, Dorrell Wright, Shaquille O'Neal, Jason Williams, Dwyane Wade

Bench: Mark Blount, Ricky Davis, Smush Parker, Daequean Cook

Outlook: After getting a title, the Heat came out flat last year and barely won a division where everyone else was done for. They got swept in the playoffs right away, and until this trade with Minnesota that is still going through, hadn't made any additions to the roster. So why even include them as a possible contender, let alone playoff team? Two words: Shaq. Wade.

Yes, even with all their problems, Miami still holds two of the league's biggest matchup problems. Wade played at an MVP level before getting hurt, and Shaq showed flashes of his old self. If we could guarantee their health, the Heat would never be a tough choice. But they both have had issues, and Wade begins this season on the sidelines. Their health will simply define if Miami misses the playoffs or gets back to the finals. Anything's possible.

I do like the trade to get Davis and Blount. Both were being shopped by Minnesota and aren't worth their loaded salaries, but are good backups for the Heat. David gives them another wing who can score. Wright is athletic and came on last year, but can't be the only guy. Parker and Cook are decent shooters, but Davis will be a necessary addition, especially when Wade is out. Blount has energy, and brings more post help, which they can always use. And they got rid of 'Toine. Not bad.

If they stay healthy, they could be a force. If not, they could sink quickly. It's all on the Daddy and D Wade.

THE CONTENDERS

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Starters: Drew Gooden, LeBron James, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Daniel Gibson, Larry Hughes

Bench: Donyell Marshall, Cedric Simmons, Sasha Pavlovic, Devin Brown, Damon Jones

Outlook: Cleveland broke through in a big way last year. They made the playoffs as a 2 seed, after a not-too-inspiring regular season, got to the conference finals, then turned it up a notch in overtaking the Pistons. They they got killed in the finals.... so was it all for real or not?

Maybe it's a little bit of both. The Cavs clearly benefited from a weak conference and easy playoff bracket. They play the Pistons tough, and got help from LeBron and Gibson in taking them down. They made a lot of strides, but they're not a title contender yet. Their younger guys are improving, but two contract disputes may have killed their momentum (though Pavlovic is reported to sign soon). They were the best team in the East last year, but everyone else got better. And determined. So it will be a tougher road this year.

I think the absence of Anderson Varejao, if it lasts, will undermine this team. Individually, their frontcourt players are decent, but as a unit, they're surprisingly effective. Everyone hates their O, but they forget that the defense was outstanding last year. The big men rebounding was a huge part of that, espeically Varejao with his energy. Former Hornets first-rounder Simmons could help, but he's still raw. They need the Brazilian big man back.

Of course, most people are wondering about the point guard spot. Gibson came though late last year, but are they safe with him? Rumors of Mike Bibby spread all summer and will continue if Sacramento struggles. I like Gibson, actually. The only reason why his stock fell so much in college is because he couldn't prove himself as a true point guard, just a scorer. But Cleveland's offense doesn't need a point guard with LeBron and Larry handling. All he has to do is hit open shots and defend and he'll be fine.

I don't like the wing pairing, but the Cavs might try a triangle-like offense with it, giving these guys the ball and having everyone feed off them. LeBron looked good in international play during the summer, shooting better and even posting up a little bit. These guys are good scorers and ball handlers, so you'd think they could create an offense around them with shooters, which they do have some of now. If Mike Brown works on it, this offense can be okay.

But will it matter? With all the movement, people are forgetting about the Cavs and wondering if they can keep up now. I say that LeBron keeps them at 50 wins, but unless they get Varejao back soon and figure out an offense, they won't be playing in June again anytime soon.

BOSTON CELTICS

Starters: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rando, Ray Allen

Bench: Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine, James Posey, Tony Allen, Eddie House

Outlook: I already went over the good and bad of this trade after it happened in this post. My prediction hasn't changed. I still think Boston is a major contender and could make it to the finals with some luck.

I'm not so worried about injury issues amongst the big three because a lot of last year was them not hurrying back to play for crappy teams (KG was specifically held out to get a better pick). And they don't have the history of it. So people saying depth and injuries will kill them? Not more than anyone else. And they have some wing depth now with Posey and Tony Allen (albeit TA is coming off major surgery).

It's the post that kind of worries me. I don't think Garnett is slowing down; in fact, I'm sure he'll be rejuvenated playing with good people and in the East. His current attitude proves this. But is anyone else going to help? Davis and Powe are untested, though they did well in college. Scalabrine used to be a nice shooter at the four spot, but hasn't done much in Boston. Pollard was once a great rebounder and hustle defender, but that was a while ago. So I wonder about that.

Still, few people in the East have the big men to take advantage of that. And few have this much talent. I think Boston wins the division handily and gets far in the playoffs, maybe to the finals. Pending on matchups, they might just have enough to make it out.... but probably not this year. They've turned themselves around, and with a few pickups (I have a feeling 'Toine is making another stop here) they can be great again.

CHICAGO BULLS

Starters: Tyrus Thomas, Loul Deng, Ben Wallace, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon

Bench: Joe Smith, Joakim Noah, Andres Nocioini, Chris Duhon, Thabo Selfosha

Outlook: The Bulls came on last year and asserted themselves as the team of the future. Actually, the near-future. They won almost 50 and embarassed Miami in the first round before giving a little fight to Detroit. Now, with their young team getting more experience, they are many experts' favorites to finish first in the East and go to the finals.

Not so fast...

As much potential as this team has, (and yes, I also think they will have the best record in the conference), I see a few trouble spots come playoff time. They still don't have an inside force unless Thomas really comes on; he might be a nice transition guy and get a lot of points that way, but there's no true post player. Smith will help, but they're still primarily a shooting and slashing team. That can still get them to the finals, but I want to wait a year before giving them the absolute crown.

Yes, they have a lot to like right now. Gordon is a deadly shooter who can catch fire and light up anyone for 30 on any night. Deng progressed to a true all-around threat last year. Hinrich is a terrific passer and shooter and defender - the most underrated guard in the lague? Nocioni is an excellent sixth man, and Noah will help Wallace out with rebouding and energy. But will Thomas develop soon? Is Gordon happy? How will they get Noicioni minutes? And what if they need to make plays? Their leadership and post play is jussssssst a little too shaky right now. I'd like to see them face off with Detroit again, or Boston, or Cleveland. I don't know if they could beat any of them in a seven game series yet. But, they're going to be good for a long time.

Of course, I didn't mention the X factor: Kobe. If he comes, they might have the firepower to push over the top. But they might have to give up a lot to get him. But he can say no to that. Rumors are bound to be flying all season until the trade deadline passes - can they ignore them? They've done well so far. Until that happens, I think they're the best regular season team and a nice threat to make noise in the playoffs, but not too far.

Until then....

DETROIT PISTONS

Starters: Antonio McDyess, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton

Bench: Jason Maxiell, Arron Afflalo, Amir Johnson, Nazr Mohammed, Lindsey Hunter, Brandon Stuckey, Jarvis Hayes

Outlook: After I looked at all the possible playofff matches, one team stood out to me - Detroit. I know it's boring, but they've been there every year, and they have a chip on their shoulders now after that ugly Cleveland series. They finally got some young guys to bolster their bench and give their stars some help, which I had been wondering about for years. They're right on the cusp of getting back to the finals.

Why do I like them? Every team in the East has a major flaw, but I think they fixed theirs. They needed scoring and bench help and they have some young guys who are ready to contribute. Maxiell is their next Big Nasty Williamson; he's shown some nice moves down low. Johnson is a decent shot blocker who can run. Hayes gives them scoring from the wing, which they need on the bench. Stuckey is a point who can shoot it, which is a big help (Hunter has been solid for years, but can't drain it). Afflalo adds D when they need it.

One guy who could be pivotal is Mohammed. They signed him to a big deal last year after losing Ben Wallace, but benched him early on. They might have overreacted. He's not Wallace and never has been, but he can board and score a little in limited time. He's a decent backup to have in the mix, and if they use him in that role, they'll have more post depth than anyone in the East besides Cleveland. Putting McDyess in the starting five will help offensively, too.

So, if they can get something out of their post guys, and the young bench, they'll have solved their major problems from the past two years. And I keep looking at them vs. the other contenders and thinking that they can win every match up....

Boston: They have the one guy who can annoy KG in 'Sheed. They have a guy who can annoy Pierce in Prince. They have shooters on both sides (Allen, Hamilton). But Detroit has more depth, and Billups might school Rondo if he's not careful. I think the Pistons would have the slight edge.

Cleveland: They always give the Pistons trouble, but they'll be extra motivated this year. If the Cavs don't have Varejao, their front court is not as terrifying. Every game went down to the wire, and it could have gone wither way without LeBron's heroics. And I don't think they're going to leave Gibson that open again.

Chicago: Detroit took them down last year without too much trouble. I know Cleveland rebounded from that a year earlier, but Detroit never struggled with the Bulls as much as they did in earlier years with the Cavs. They have the post advantage and know how to attack.

So, as much as I hate to say it, I have the Pistons as my favorites to come out of the East. I don't think they'll have the best record, but they should be in the top 3. They just have enough playoff experience and depth now to get by everyone else. It wouldn't surprise me if they came up short again, but I'm going with them.

In the finals? I already said the West was going to own, but a team like Detroit or Boston could cause some trouble. Not enough to win, but it won't be a sweep again.

PHOENIX OVER DETROIT IN SIX

Here's a look at how the east playoff bracket could play out:

1. Chicago over 8. Toronto
5. Detroit over 4. Miami
3. Cleveland over 6. New Jersey
2. Boston over 7. Washington

5. Detroit (with third best record) over 1. Chicago
2. Boston over 3. Cleveland

5. Detroit over 2. Boston

Or this (alternative):

1. Chicago over 8. Orlando
5. Cleveland (with third best record) over 4. Miami
3. Detroit over 6. New Jersey
2. Boston over 7. Toronto

1. Chicago over 5. Cleveland
3. Detroit over 2. Boston

3. Detroit over 1. Chicago

Is this 1991? Are Isiah Thomas, Larry Bird, Mark Price, and Michael Jordan playing again? No, this is a much weaker East, but it's getting better. Funny how things repeat themselves, though.

That's it. I'll check in later with my updates, but this is my official pre-season pick.

SUNS 4, PISTONS 2

Happy Halloween! More once the season starts!