The end of the season came, and it didn't get any less crazy. I hate to see Phoenix and San Antonio battle it out in the first round, with the top half of the West bracket looking kinda weak. BUt that's how it is. So here are my picks (awards coming later).....
FIRST ROUND WEST
Lakers over Denver in 6
Jazz over Rockets in 7
Suns over Spurs in 7
Hornets over Mavs in 7
EAST
Celtics over Hawks in 4
Cavs over Wizards in 7
Magic over Raptors in 7
Pistons over Sixers in 5
SECOND ROUND WEST
Lakers over Jazz in 7
Suns over Hornets in 6
EAST
Celtics over Cavs in 6
Pistons over Magic in 6
CONF FINALS
Suns over Lakers in 6
Pistons over Celtics in 7
FINALS
Suns over Pistons in 6
Yeah. I picked it before the season, and I'm sticking with it. I think the Celtics will probably win it all now, but I'm not gonna change it. Besides, who reads this?
Friday, April 18, 2008
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
of course
Of course this is the year that all # 1 seeds make it.
Of course.
Forget everything I said. Again.
I'm not even sure if UNC - UCLA is happening now. Memphis looks damn good.
Quick note for the pros circuit: I explained why lowly East teams didn't have much to play for, except for Atlanta, but I never thought about the good news for West teams. Portland would have liked to make the playoffs, but they'll take the 13th pick and use it (Stephen Curry? think about it...).
As I pointed out, the East teams in the lottery will almost certainly all be picking in the top 11. The difference between 8th and 9th seed is three spots. But look out west, where three teams are struggling to get in. The difference between the 8th and 9th seed? A whopping seven spots. The last team out in the west will pick 14th, but the last team in will probably be picking at 21 or 22. I know none of these three teams wants to miss the playoffs, but that's a nice consolation prize.
Now, Golden State and Denver have a lot of young talent and might be psychologically hurt by not making it, especially when they know they could wreak havoc as low seeds. For Dallas, it would be a disaster after the whole Kidd trade.... but wouldn't it be appropriate? This team needs a kick in the ass, and maybe this would be it. Dallas misses the playoffs and Avery might realize he needs to adjust some things. It would put pressure on them, but they need it. They can always blame Dirk's injury if that makes you feel better, Dallasites (Dallasans? Dallasers?).
They made a sly move in having their draft pick lottery-protected this year in case of emergency. They keep it now if they miss the playoffs. Would you rather have a first round loss and a summer of infighting, or a decent pick (that could be traded or used on a shooter) in the late lottery? Nothing short of a finals appearance will stop the turmoil, and it ain't gonna happen. I know Dallas would never think this way, but they might take a mulligan here.
I'm rooting hard for them to be the odd one out... I don't need to see Kidd hoisting ugly shots and glaring at Avery while they get blown out by San Antonio, when I could have G State or Denver bringing much more excitement. I'm sorry, Cuban, but someone had to go and it's you.
Of course.
Forget everything I said. Again.
I'm not even sure if UNC - UCLA is happening now. Memphis looks damn good.
Quick note for the pros circuit: I explained why lowly East teams didn't have much to play for, except for Atlanta, but I never thought about the good news for West teams. Portland would have liked to make the playoffs, but they'll take the 13th pick and use it (Stephen Curry? think about it...).
As I pointed out, the East teams in the lottery will almost certainly all be picking in the top 11. The difference between 8th and 9th seed is three spots. But look out west, where three teams are struggling to get in. The difference between the 8th and 9th seed? A whopping seven spots. The last team out in the west will pick 14th, but the last team in will probably be picking at 21 or 22. I know none of these three teams wants to miss the playoffs, but that's a nice consolation prize.
Now, Golden State and Denver have a lot of young talent and might be psychologically hurt by not making it, especially when they know they could wreak havoc as low seeds. For Dallas, it would be a disaster after the whole Kidd trade.... but wouldn't it be appropriate? This team needs a kick in the ass, and maybe this would be it. Dallas misses the playoffs and Avery might realize he needs to adjust some things. It would put pressure on them, but they need it. They can always blame Dirk's injury if that makes you feel better, Dallasites (Dallasans? Dallasers?).
They made a sly move in having their draft pick lottery-protected this year in case of emergency. They keep it now if they miss the playoffs. Would you rather have a first round loss and a summer of infighting, or a decent pick (that could be traded or used on a shooter) in the late lottery? Nothing short of a finals appearance will stop the turmoil, and it ain't gonna happen. I know Dallas would never think this way, but they might take a mulligan here.
I'm rooting hard for them to be the odd one out... I don't need to see Kidd hoisting ugly shots and glaring at Avery while they get blown out by San Antonio, when I could have G State or Denver bringing much more excitement. I'm sorry, Cuban, but someone had to go and it's you.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
HIBBERT!!!!
Yeah, my new bracket plan didn't quite work, but I was on the right track. I decided to base my picks on whom I did NOT like, and I was on the right track. Unfortunately, I decided Georgetown was the least-hateable team in their bracket, but I still hated them, and I really should have seen the Davidson upset coming (the fact that they're darlings scared me off). I should have trusted my gut... of hate.
Two things to emphasize:
1. If you don't like a high seeded team, don't put too much stock in them. Georgetown lost, Duke lost (I had that), Tennessee nearly lost (I knew Butler could take them, and they really should have), and Stanford had to pull everything out to squeak by. I also didn't like UConn or Drake that much, so I should've seen a busted bracket there. Which leads me to my second point....
2. Mid majors who have an excellent season and get a decent seed tend to flame out early. My theory is that they are much better off a s low seeded giant killers, and actually getting a decent seed creates pressure. Remember, a few years ago, Gonzaga made a couple nice runs as a low seed, but then when they finally got some recognition from the committee, they lost early. The only team that did anything with a decent seed was the '06 team with Morrison and Turiaf, which was really too talented to be a cinderella (much like Memphis is). And they only made it to the sweet 16. Nope, mid-majors just can't have a decent seed (6 or above) and live up to it. They need to surprise.
That's why I was feeling very doubtful about Drake, and lo and behold, they lost to Western Kentucky, which had that darling 12 seed. Sometimes, I think I'd rather be a 12 seed than a 5. Honestly.
So I got 9 out of 16. It's something. And, I still have 3 out of 4 for the last 4, but I'm wondering if maybe Kansas has gotten over their choke problems and will make it now. Wisconsin, Davidson, and Villanova? They have to be the best there.... but I can see Nova making it tough.... hmm....
We will see.
------0
Some random NBA notes while I'm here:
The Sixers' streak didn't end with my jinxing. In fact, they've been one of the best teams in the league for the past few weeks. WTF????? I'm thoroughly enjoying this now. Considering how the other teams plodding for the 8th spot are doing, they are now not only in, but an easy pick to make it. Unbelievable. Get Mo an extension; I think he could sneak away with a few COY votes.
Without much time left, I'm finding it near impossible to make any serious predictions. I'm leaning towards Boston over Phoenix, but that changes everyday. I still like the Pistons, especially the way the pro brackets are going. I have no answer for the West yet - I thought there would be some seperation, but clearly, this is going to come down to the last day of the regular season.
The Lakers beating Dallas, Utah (in SL), and Golden State last week while the Cavs floundered may have pushed Kobe head of LeBron in many eyes, including mine. But then what about Chris Paul? I think Kobe wins because voters know they'll have plenty of chances to vote for Paul and LBJ over the next few years, and he's got extra fire this year. But for me, it's almost a three way tie right now.
That is all.
Two things to emphasize:
1. If you don't like a high seeded team, don't put too much stock in them. Georgetown lost, Duke lost (I had that), Tennessee nearly lost (I knew Butler could take them, and they really should have), and Stanford had to pull everything out to squeak by. I also didn't like UConn or Drake that much, so I should've seen a busted bracket there. Which leads me to my second point....
2. Mid majors who have an excellent season and get a decent seed tend to flame out early. My theory is that they are much better off a s low seeded giant killers, and actually getting a decent seed creates pressure. Remember, a few years ago, Gonzaga made a couple nice runs as a low seed, but then when they finally got some recognition from the committee, they lost early. The only team that did anything with a decent seed was the '06 team with Morrison and Turiaf, which was really too talented to be a cinderella (much like Memphis is). And they only made it to the sweet 16. Nope, mid-majors just can't have a decent seed (6 or above) and live up to it. They need to surprise.
That's why I was feeling very doubtful about Drake, and lo and behold, they lost to Western Kentucky, which had that darling 12 seed. Sometimes, I think I'd rather be a 12 seed than a 5. Honestly.
So I got 9 out of 16. It's something. And, I still have 3 out of 4 for the last 4, but I'm wondering if maybe Kansas has gotten over their choke problems and will make it now. Wisconsin, Davidson, and Villanova? They have to be the best there.... but I can see Nova making it tough.... hmm....
We will see.
------0
Some random NBA notes while I'm here:
The Sixers' streak didn't end with my jinxing. In fact, they've been one of the best teams in the league for the past few weeks. WTF????? I'm thoroughly enjoying this now. Considering how the other teams plodding for the 8th spot are doing, they are now not only in, but an easy pick to make it. Unbelievable. Get Mo an extension; I think he could sneak away with a few COY votes.
Without much time left, I'm finding it near impossible to make any serious predictions. I'm leaning towards Boston over Phoenix, but that changes everyday. I still like the Pistons, especially the way the pro brackets are going. I have no answer for the West yet - I thought there would be some seperation, but clearly, this is going to come down to the last day of the regular season.
The Lakers beating Dallas, Utah (in SL), and Golden State last week while the Cavs floundered may have pushed Kobe head of LeBron in many eyes, including mine. But then what about Chris Paul? I think Kobe wins because voters know they'll have plenty of chances to vote for Paul and LBJ over the next few years, and he's got extra fire this year. But for me, it's almost a three way tie right now.
That is all.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
bracketology '08
Yes, it's bracket time. I know I haven't wrote much (er, anything) on college hoops this season, but I have been slowly paying more attention lately... mostly for prospects (i.e. freshman) but also getting a decent picture.
Then again, a decent picture is sometimes too much. People over-analyze and then the office pool goes to the secretary... or does it? The old cliche is true sometimes, but I've done okay in a few years. I've had some good calls (George Mason vs. Wichita State in the most improbable sweet sixteen in 2006; Florida over Duke in 2000; LSU over Duke in 2006) and a lot of misses. I think I can pick a decent bracket now based on one thing:
I know whom NOT to pick.
See, everyone wants to find the hot upstarts and cinderellas. That's hard. That requires a ton of luck. It's not always predictable to know who will get hot. BUT, I do think it is easy to spot high ranking teams with problems. Remember, it's very rare that more than two of the # 1 seeds make it to the final four. Usually, one does, but then you have a few from different spots. The 2 seeds can be good and bad. The rest of them all appear in random order.
I think the three best teams in this field are UNC, UCLA, and Kansas, and by a significant lead over others. I like them. But it's just mathematically unlikely that they all make it to San Antonio - and damn near impossible that Memphis does too. You say, they're all # 1 seeds for a reason! Yes, they are. They're the best. But I swear they aren't all gonna make it.
How did I pick some broken brackets that I managed to get right? By eliminating high seeds I didn't trust. In 2006, I think the high seeds in the East bracket were UNC, Tennessee and Michigan State, whom I both frowned upon. I saw George Mason and Wichita fully capable of pulling the upset, because I didn't like the look of those teams. I didn't put George Mason in the final four, but who did? This strategy has led me to call some good early round action, but it has left me on the dry for the late rounds. It's not full-proof.
I think now I will look at the tournament as who I hate the least. Maybe my pessimism will pay off this year. Unlike college football, this is a tournament - someone has to win. The process of elimination seems just as good as anything.
So here are my picks, and I'll explain my reasons for each segment:
EAST
Round 1 - UNC, Indiana, Notre Dame, Wash St, Oklhoma, Louisville, Butler, Tennessee
Round 2 (sweet sixteen) - UNC, Wash St, Oklahoma, Butler
Round 3 (regional finals) - UNC, Butler
UNC advances
I don't trust Tennessee because they're small and rely on shooting too much. If they go cold, they're done. I liked Washington State as a sleeper all year, but they have the same problem. UNC, when it has the top seed, has always been pretty good in the region. Last year, they lost in overtime in the regional final, but I think the last time before that when they didn't make it with a top seed was in 1994. They're one of the safe bets.
I don't really like anyone in the bottom half of that bracket. Louisville and UT look shaky as high seeds. Oklahoma could do some damage, but do they have guards? I like Butler. Mid-majors do better when they're seeded low.
MIDWEST
Round 1 - Knasas, UNLV, Villanova, Siena, USC, Wisconsin, Davidson, Gtown
Round 2 - Kansas, Nova, USC, Georgetown
Round 3 - Kansas, Georgetown
Georgetown advances
I really hate this bracket. Kansas is the best team by far, but they have a bad history of choking. I'm scared to pick them, but I don't love anyone else. I actually really like USC, but I could also see them losing in the first round. Wisconsin is okay. I can see Villanova in the sweet sixteen - one of the teams who barely got in always makes noise, espeically in the 5-12 game. Vanderbilt sucks if they're not at home. Georgetown is tough because they're not as good as last year, but I hate them the least out of all these people. Kansas State might be dangerous, but they have to face USC. Everyone is in love with Davidson as a sleeper, so I'm backing off them.
SOUTH
Round 1 - Memphis, Miss St, Mich St, Pitt, Kentucky, Stanford, Miami, Texas
Round 2 - Memphis, Pitt, Kentucky, Texas
Round 3 - Memphis, Texas
Texas advances
Memphis is another high seed with not enough size. I like how they play, but they've had good teams the past few years and haven't made the final four. I don't like Michigan State, and Pitt usually falls apart in the big tourney. I really don't like Stanford that much. I do like Kentucky; they've been playing well lately. Texas is my pick because they seem to be doing strangely better without Kevin Durant, and D.J. Augustin is playing well.
WEST
Round 1 - UCLA, Tex A&M, Drake, UConn, Baylor, Xavier, WVU, Duke
Round 2 - UCLA, Drake, Xavier, WVU
Round 3 - UCLA, Xavier
UCLA advances
UCLA is the one sure thing here, because no one else here looks that good. Xavier has a shot and I like them in the elite eight, but that's about it. I would like Drake, but as I said, mid-majors usually struggle when they get a decent seed. They're better off coming in low. But UConn doesn't really impress me either. Duke I could not hate more, and not just because they're Duke. They have NO inside game. You need one decent big man to make it in the tourney, no matter how good your guards are. WVU at least has a good history of upsets. Purdue? No dice. Sorry, Big Ten.
FINAL FOUR
UNC over G'town
UCLA over Texas
FINAL: UNC 70, UCLA 64
Yeah, I know, not an imaginative final. These are the two best teams, and I can't really find a good reason for UNC to lose. UCLA has some injury problems and I worry what they will do if any of their perimeter guys are out. Otherwise, they are great. I still don't like Georgetown here, but I can't think of who else to put.
------
AWARDS FOR COLLEGE
ALL AMERICA FIRST
Michael Beasley, KSU
Tyler Hansbrough, UNC (Player of the Year)
Kevin Love, UCLA
D. J. Augustin, Texas
Chris Lofton, Tennessee
SECOND
Brook Lopez, Stanford
Shan Foster, Vandy
Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis
Stephen Curry, Davidson
THIRD
Sam Young, Pitt
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Darrell Arthur, Kansas
DeMarcus Nelson, Duke
O.J. Mayo, USC
HM
Eric Gordon, Ind
D. J. White, Ind
Derrick Rose, Memphis
Jarryd Bayless, Arizona
Brandon Rush, Kansas
Derrick Low, Wash. St.
Sean Singletary, Virginia
Jaycee Carroll, Utah St.
Dionte Christmas, Temple
ALL FROSH
Beasley
Love
Mayo
D. Rose
E. Gordon
Bayless
COY: Keno Davis, Drake
Then again, a decent picture is sometimes too much. People over-analyze and then the office pool goes to the secretary... or does it? The old cliche is true sometimes, but I've done okay in a few years. I've had some good calls (George Mason vs. Wichita State in the most improbable sweet sixteen in 2006; Florida over Duke in 2000; LSU over Duke in 2006) and a lot of misses. I think I can pick a decent bracket now based on one thing:
I know whom NOT to pick.
See, everyone wants to find the hot upstarts and cinderellas. That's hard. That requires a ton of luck. It's not always predictable to know who will get hot. BUT, I do think it is easy to spot high ranking teams with problems. Remember, it's very rare that more than two of the # 1 seeds make it to the final four. Usually, one does, but then you have a few from different spots. The 2 seeds can be good and bad. The rest of them all appear in random order.
I think the three best teams in this field are UNC, UCLA, and Kansas, and by a significant lead over others. I like them. But it's just mathematically unlikely that they all make it to San Antonio - and damn near impossible that Memphis does too. You say, they're all # 1 seeds for a reason! Yes, they are. They're the best. But I swear they aren't all gonna make it.
How did I pick some broken brackets that I managed to get right? By eliminating high seeds I didn't trust. In 2006, I think the high seeds in the East bracket were UNC, Tennessee and Michigan State, whom I both frowned upon. I saw George Mason and Wichita fully capable of pulling the upset, because I didn't like the look of those teams. I didn't put George Mason in the final four, but who did? This strategy has led me to call some good early round action, but it has left me on the dry for the late rounds. It's not full-proof.
I think now I will look at the tournament as who I hate the least. Maybe my pessimism will pay off this year. Unlike college football, this is a tournament - someone has to win. The process of elimination seems just as good as anything.
So here are my picks, and I'll explain my reasons for each segment:
EAST
Round 1 - UNC, Indiana, Notre Dame, Wash St, Oklhoma, Louisville, Butler, Tennessee
Round 2 (sweet sixteen) - UNC, Wash St, Oklahoma, Butler
Round 3 (regional finals) - UNC, Butler
UNC advances
I don't trust Tennessee because they're small and rely on shooting too much. If they go cold, they're done. I liked Washington State as a sleeper all year, but they have the same problem. UNC, when it has the top seed, has always been pretty good in the region. Last year, they lost in overtime in the regional final, but I think the last time before that when they didn't make it with a top seed was in 1994. They're one of the safe bets.
I don't really like anyone in the bottom half of that bracket. Louisville and UT look shaky as high seeds. Oklahoma could do some damage, but do they have guards? I like Butler. Mid-majors do better when they're seeded low.
MIDWEST
Round 1 - Knasas, UNLV, Villanova, Siena, USC, Wisconsin, Davidson, Gtown
Round 2 - Kansas, Nova, USC, Georgetown
Round 3 - Kansas, Georgetown
Georgetown advances
I really hate this bracket. Kansas is the best team by far, but they have a bad history of choking. I'm scared to pick them, but I don't love anyone else. I actually really like USC, but I could also see them losing in the first round. Wisconsin is okay. I can see Villanova in the sweet sixteen - one of the teams who barely got in always makes noise, espeically in the 5-12 game. Vanderbilt sucks if they're not at home. Georgetown is tough because they're not as good as last year, but I hate them the least out of all these people. Kansas State might be dangerous, but they have to face USC. Everyone is in love with Davidson as a sleeper, so I'm backing off them.
SOUTH
Round 1 - Memphis, Miss St, Mich St, Pitt, Kentucky, Stanford, Miami, Texas
Round 2 - Memphis, Pitt, Kentucky, Texas
Round 3 - Memphis, Texas
Texas advances
Memphis is another high seed with not enough size. I like how they play, but they've had good teams the past few years and haven't made the final four. I don't like Michigan State, and Pitt usually falls apart in the big tourney. I really don't like Stanford that much. I do like Kentucky; they've been playing well lately. Texas is my pick because they seem to be doing strangely better without Kevin Durant, and D.J. Augustin is playing well.
WEST
Round 1 - UCLA, Tex A&M, Drake, UConn, Baylor, Xavier, WVU, Duke
Round 2 - UCLA, Drake, Xavier, WVU
Round 3 - UCLA, Xavier
UCLA advances
UCLA is the one sure thing here, because no one else here looks that good. Xavier has a shot and I like them in the elite eight, but that's about it. I would like Drake, but as I said, mid-majors usually struggle when they get a decent seed. They're better off coming in low. But UConn doesn't really impress me either. Duke I could not hate more, and not just because they're Duke. They have NO inside game. You need one decent big man to make it in the tourney, no matter how good your guards are. WVU at least has a good history of upsets. Purdue? No dice. Sorry, Big Ten.
FINAL FOUR
UNC over G'town
UCLA over Texas
FINAL: UNC 70, UCLA 64
Yeah, I know, not an imaginative final. These are the two best teams, and I can't really find a good reason for UNC to lose. UCLA has some injury problems and I worry what they will do if any of their perimeter guys are out. Otherwise, they are great. I still don't like Georgetown here, but I can't think of who else to put.
------
AWARDS FOR COLLEGE
ALL AMERICA FIRST
Michael Beasley, KSU
Tyler Hansbrough, UNC (Player of the Year)
Kevin Love, UCLA
D. J. Augustin, Texas
Chris Lofton, Tennessee
SECOND
Brook Lopez, Stanford
Shan Foster, Vandy
Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis
Stephen Curry, Davidson
THIRD
Sam Young, Pitt
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Darrell Arthur, Kansas
DeMarcus Nelson, Duke
O.J. Mayo, USC
HM
Eric Gordon, Ind
D. J. White, Ind
Derrick Rose, Memphis
Jarryd Bayless, Arizona
Brandon Rush, Kansas
Derrick Low, Wash. St.
Sean Singletary, Virginia
Jaycee Carroll, Utah St.
Dionte Christmas, Temple
ALL FROSH
Beasley
Love
Mayo
D. Rose
E. Gordon
Bayless
COY: Keno Davis, Drake
Monday, March 10, 2008
tanks, but no tanks... or maybe?
It's that time of year again.
While the college game is heating up (whoops, I guess I need to start paying attention to that for bracket busters), teams in the pro circuit face the stretch run. Aside from the wild playoff run in the west, which changes seemingly everyday (the Rockets are 3rd now???) there are a few teams in the east that are facing a slightly different challenge:
to tank or not to tank?
People have debated for years (notably Simmons) the merits and risks of mailing it in for the season. I write this now on the heels of two key events: the Sixers improbably making a playoff run and the Heat shutting down Dwyane Wade for the rest of the season (thanks, to you and Jermaine O'Neal, you were only the cornerstones of my fantasy team, it's okay, I still have John Salmons... jerks...). Two teams facing the challenge and taking opposite actions for it. How will this play out?
Actually, I don't think you can fault the Heat for this. They tried this year. They really did. They just failed miserably. They even made a late trade to give them veteran help (though, you could argue that anyone who trades for Ricky Davis is going for a disaster... maybe it was a conspiracy by Pat Riley all along?). Wade hasn't been playing great and they tried to win with him. They don't want him to get hurt for the long term, and they can't possibly make the playoffs. It's not pretty, but I think this is one of the more forgivable tank jobs. They do need to look at some young guys.
As for Pat Riley taking games off to scout.... umm.... shouldn't he resign as coach if he just wants to be the G.M.? It would be nice if he had a successor in place - oh wait, he did... three years ago, and then he pushed him off a cliff. Maybe we shouldn't forgive them.
Now, as for the hometown team, I openly campaigned for them to lose this year. And last year. I like Thaddeous Young, and he's been great.... but I'd still rather have Horford or Durant. This year, I thought they should dump Andre Miller for picks and young guys. But now? I'm getting on board. They're playing well, and they don't seem to have much competition for the last two spots. In fact, if they just go .500 from now on, they could make it easily. It's nice for a franchise that everyone thought was dead about a year ago.
But is it the best option? They look like they're having fun and raising the positive vibes in the city, which is always a good thing. There's even a distinct chance that they will make the playoffs and the Nuggets (with Iverson) won't, which might be seen as poetic justice if it didn't underscore just how unbalanced the conferences are. I can't blame them. They need some good news.
The rest of the teams in the East? Perhaps not. They all seem to be treading water. Atlanta is the only team that feels any pressure, because they don't have their pick, and they traded a lot for Bibby to win now. Chicago is in a weird state, Indiana has too many injuries, Charlotte has injuries and needs more people, and Jersey has to be thinking about the future without Kidd. Milwaukee needs an enforcer to be serious, and they need to maybe move some people (and hire Simmons to light a fire under this depressing franchise). Atlanta and Philly have the most to gain from making the playoffs, so I'd encourage the other teams to step aside.
[The sad thing about the east this year is that it's bad even when teams tried to be good. All those teams I just mentioned were not in rebuilding mode at the start of the season; they all wanted to make the playoffs. The Knicks and the Heat did, too. All of them would feel a little better with a playoff appearance, but none of them can seem to put anything together. Compare that to the west, where the bad teams at least knew they'd be bad and have young teams with plans for the future. This imbalance might be around for a while....]
So why tank this year? Because the west is so good, the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs could be worth three spots in the draft. We know that a very good team is getting shur out of the playoffs, like Denver or Golden State. It also appears that Sacramento and Portland are going to finish around .500. So, the last team out in the east will still get the 11th pick, most likely. In that cluster of teams, you might not think it matters who finishes where, but it could.
Right now, the 11 worst teams in order are the Heat, Wolves, Grizzlies, Sonics, Knicks, Clippers, Bucks, Pacers, Bobcats, Bulls, and Nets. After the Clippers, those last 5 teams are all within 3 games of each other. Why is this important? It's been a trend for years in the lottery that the worst team does not get t
he first pick - in fact, that rarely happens. Often, it's a team from the middle of the pack, like the 5th, 6th, or 7th worst team. Last year, none of the teams with the three worst records made it to the top three picks - Portland and Seattle lucked in with middle-lottery finishes.
he first pick - in fact, that rarely happens. Often, it's a team from the middle of the pack, like the 5th, 6th, or 7th worst team. Last year, none of the teams with the three worst records made it to the top three picks - Portland and Seattle lucked in with middle-lottery finishes. Thus, my advice to those eastern teams who think they could sneak in and get killed by the Celtics: stop. Being the 7th worst team in the league is a nice position this year. I'd rather be there than be the 8th seed in the playoffs, quite honestly. There are only 7 or 8 guys that are really getting buzz in this draft; after that, it's a toss up. Plus, you might have a good shot at getting a high pick. Yes, I'm telling all of you not named Philly or Atlanta to think about the ol' tanker. Trust me, it's not such a bad idea this year.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
the big break, reconsidered
Okay, now after the trades have been made and we can see where people are going, I can make some predictions and give grades out to all...
ATLANTA - great trade for Bibby. Their bench is a little thin now, but they can easily grab a playoff spot without any injuries. I see them winning 40 games and losing in the first round... but it's a step.
BOSTON - just want to see if Sam Cassell does get cut and if they move. They're going to win 60 easy, but will they get past Detroit and/or Cleveland?
CHARLOTTE - no moves. They need another big guy in the draft to get anywhere. No playoffs.
CHICAGO - some have killed them for this trade, but at least they didn't give up any of their young stars. They can see who plays well for the rest of the season and then make moves. Yes, they're likely stuck with Larry Hughes, but they didn't commit to Ben Gordon anyway. This isn't over for them; we'll see how the summer goes. As for the playoffs now, I kinda doubt it, but they could sneak in there.
CLEVELAND - the busiest team completely changed itself... for the better? Ben Wallace brings more D but less O than Drew Gooden. Wally can shoot, but can't guard anyone. I guess they want to give Pavlovic more minutes. I do love Delonte West on this team to fill in for Gibson, but this is a weird trade: they go down in pure talent but get pieces who fit better. At least they can say that they'll still have lots of expiring contracts next year if it doesn't work (Damon Jones, Snow, Wally, Joe Smith). They could try again, and they qualmed LB for now.
Do they make the finals again? I like Boston and Detroit better, but I give them more of a shot than I did.
DALLAS - I like the Kidd trade. I do. I just think that he and Jason Terry in the backcourt is better than what they had. Losing Diop was bad, but they could pick someone up off waivers soon, and they wanted to give Brandon Bass more time. Depending on matchups, they could lose in the first round or make it all the way. I think it will be in the middle.
DENVER - so glad they didn't make the Artest trade. They need to see if they can salvage JR Smith or Nene or K Mart first. And they should play Kleiza at the four. They're going to struggle with the playoffs, but they could make it in.
DETROIT - shrewd moves have pushed them right back near the top. They now have the depth they haven't lately, and they'll be more focused than they were the past two years. Cleveland and Boston will push them, but I'd say they are the slight faves in the East.
GOLDEN STATE - no moves other than getting Webber, who seems a little redundant. They will once again be a dangerous low seed, but nothing more. They could miss the postseason if they can't beat out Denver and Houston.
HOUSTON - some small moves that helped, but not much in changes. They just want to get healthy. I think they make it, but this may not be the year they finally get out of the first round, unless they get a good matchup.
INDIANA - surprised that they did not trade JO. He has been hurt, but they need to retool. They're stuck in the bad place between playoffs and really starting over. They could sneak in, but would that change anything? This summer, they will have to do something.
LA CLIPPERS - no moves, still waiting for word on Brand and Livingston. They have to make some decisions soon. A nice pick will help.
LA LAKERS - the best run team this year. Who could see Mitch Kupchak as the exec of the year? Gasol will help them stay afloat, but I don't think they make the finals this year. They're still growing, and the other west powers have loaded teams. But next year, and for the next few years, they might be the faves.
MEMPHIS - just end this franchise already. They don't care.
MIAMI - nice rebuilding kick-start with the Shaq trade. With a top draft pick, they can fill out some spaces quickly. They can take a look at Earl Barron, Alex Johnson, and Marcus Banks, in the meantime.
MILWAUKEE - they want to win now, so they will push for the playoffs, but they just don't have enough. Too many perimeter guys, no defense, no toughness. They might be better off trading some people, but they'll wait.
MINNESOTA - slolwy building and seeing who works. Gerald Green wasn't, so getting rid of him was okay. They'll get some contracts off the books, and another high pick, and they can start to put something together ... eventually.
NEW JERSEY - they needed to make the Kidd trade, and they have a good nuclues now. They can draft a scoring big man and maybe trade Vince in the summer, and they'll be okay. THey should shut everyone down for now.
NEW ORLEANS - a few nice moves to tweak the roster, and they've been great. I still can't see them making the finals or even the conference finals, and I suspect they will cool down, but it has been a great year no matter what.
NEW YORK - typical Isiah: this team is ready to kill each other, he has a lot of options, and he does nothing. I want an implosion. At least they'll finally be keeping their lottery pick.
ORLANDO - surprised that they did not add a real two guard or power forward, but they like their system for now. I guess. They can probably make it out of the first round, but no more. They need to address some spots this summer.
PHILLY - my boys did nothing, even though I was leaning towards trading Andre Miller and saving space/draft picks and losing. Now, they have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. Is it worth it? I don't know. I think they need another good big man, and they're not getting it this way.
PHOENIX - we'll have to see in the playoffs if the Shaq trade works, but I'm more worried about them giving up all the draft picks. they could use them now -they're lacking depth. I think it's a toos up between them and the Spurs again, with the Lakers and Mavs hunting.
PORTLAND - they've cooled down, but will be a force in the next few years. A dynamic force.
SACRAMENTO - the Bibby trade had to be kind of disappointing, considering they got one decent chip (Shelden) and didn't give up contracts. Atlanta might have taken more people, but they didn't have anyone to give. Also, they kept Artest, which is still an unknown. A late lottery pick won't help; they need to make more deals.
SAN ANTONIO - they made an excellent deal in picking up Kurt Thomas. They might miss Barry's shooting, but they could still bring him back or grab someone else. They should be the faves.... but how do they deal with all these tough teams?
SEATTLE - they're creating space and getting draft picks to build around Durant. That's smart. Too bad their owners are crooks. Seattle, a great city, will not get to see these kids mature.
TORONTO - a small move, but they have a solid team. They could use a real wing soon, but they get by for now. They could make it to the second round, but that's it.
UTAH - the Korver move was great for all. That's all they really needed. This team could go far if not for everyone else. I don't know if they can take down SAN or PHX or even DAL, but they might be able to get pretty far.
WASHINGTON - no moves, as they will wait to see if they sign Jamison and Arenas. They'll make the playoffs but not go anywhere.
ATLANTA - great trade for Bibby. Their bench is a little thin now, but they can easily grab a playoff spot without any injuries. I see them winning 40 games and losing in the first round... but it's a step.
BOSTON - just want to see if Sam Cassell does get cut and if they move. They're going to win 60 easy, but will they get past Detroit and/or Cleveland?
CHARLOTTE - no moves. They need another big guy in the draft to get anywhere. No playoffs.
CHICAGO - some have killed them for this trade, but at least they didn't give up any of their young stars. They can see who plays well for the rest of the season and then make moves. Yes, they're likely stuck with Larry Hughes, but they didn't commit to Ben Gordon anyway. This isn't over for them; we'll see how the summer goes. As for the playoffs now, I kinda doubt it, but they could sneak in there.
CLEVELAND - the busiest team completely changed itself... for the better? Ben Wallace brings more D but less O than Drew Gooden. Wally can shoot, but can't guard anyone. I guess they want to give Pavlovic more minutes. I do love Delonte West on this team to fill in for Gibson, but this is a weird trade: they go down in pure talent but get pieces who fit better. At least they can say that they'll still have lots of expiring contracts next year if it doesn't work (Damon Jones, Snow, Wally, Joe Smith). They could try again, and they qualmed LB for now.
Do they make the finals again? I like Boston and Detroit better, but I give them more of a shot than I did.
DALLAS - I like the Kidd trade. I do. I just think that he and Jason Terry in the backcourt is better than what they had. Losing Diop was bad, but they could pick someone up off waivers soon, and they wanted to give Brandon Bass more time. Depending on matchups, they could lose in the first round or make it all the way. I think it will be in the middle.
DENVER - so glad they didn't make the Artest trade. They need to see if they can salvage JR Smith or Nene or K Mart first. And they should play Kleiza at the four. They're going to struggle with the playoffs, but they could make it in.
DETROIT - shrewd moves have pushed them right back near the top. They now have the depth they haven't lately, and they'll be more focused than they were the past two years. Cleveland and Boston will push them, but I'd say they are the slight faves in the East.
GOLDEN STATE - no moves other than getting Webber, who seems a little redundant. They will once again be a dangerous low seed, but nothing more. They could miss the postseason if they can't beat out Denver and Houston.
HOUSTON - some small moves that helped, but not much in changes. They just want to get healthy. I think they make it, but this may not be the year they finally get out of the first round, unless they get a good matchup.
INDIANA - surprised that they did not trade JO. He has been hurt, but they need to retool. They're stuck in the bad place between playoffs and really starting over. They could sneak in, but would that change anything? This summer, they will have to do something.
LA CLIPPERS - no moves, still waiting for word on Brand and Livingston. They have to make some decisions soon. A nice pick will help.
LA LAKERS - the best run team this year. Who could see Mitch Kupchak as the exec of the year? Gasol will help them stay afloat, but I don't think they make the finals this year. They're still growing, and the other west powers have loaded teams. But next year, and for the next few years, they might be the faves.
MEMPHIS - just end this franchise already. They don't care.
MIAMI - nice rebuilding kick-start with the Shaq trade. With a top draft pick, they can fill out some spaces quickly. They can take a look at Earl Barron, Alex Johnson, and Marcus Banks, in the meantime.
MILWAUKEE - they want to win now, so they will push for the playoffs, but they just don't have enough. Too many perimeter guys, no defense, no toughness. They might be better off trading some people, but they'll wait.
MINNESOTA - slolwy building and seeing who works. Gerald Green wasn't, so getting rid of him was okay. They'll get some contracts off the books, and another high pick, and they can start to put something together ... eventually.
NEW JERSEY - they needed to make the Kidd trade, and they have a good nuclues now. They can draft a scoring big man and maybe trade Vince in the summer, and they'll be okay. THey should shut everyone down for now.
NEW ORLEANS - a few nice moves to tweak the roster, and they've been great. I still can't see them making the finals or even the conference finals, and I suspect they will cool down, but it has been a great year no matter what.
NEW YORK - typical Isiah: this team is ready to kill each other, he has a lot of options, and he does nothing. I want an implosion. At least they'll finally be keeping their lottery pick.
ORLANDO - surprised that they did not add a real two guard or power forward, but they like their system for now. I guess. They can probably make it out of the first round, but no more. They need to address some spots this summer.
PHILLY - my boys did nothing, even though I was leaning towards trading Andre Miller and saving space/draft picks and losing. Now, they have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. Is it worth it? I don't know. I think they need another good big man, and they're not getting it this way.
PHOENIX - we'll have to see in the playoffs if the Shaq trade works, but I'm more worried about them giving up all the draft picks. they could use them now -they're lacking depth. I think it's a toos up between them and the Spurs again, with the Lakers and Mavs hunting.
PORTLAND - they've cooled down, but will be a force in the next few years. A dynamic force.
SACRAMENTO - the Bibby trade had to be kind of disappointing, considering they got one decent chip (Shelden) and didn't give up contracts. Atlanta might have taken more people, but they didn't have anyone to give. Also, they kept Artest, which is still an unknown. A late lottery pick won't help; they need to make more deals.
SAN ANTONIO - they made an excellent deal in picking up Kurt Thomas. They might miss Barry's shooting, but they could still bring him back or grab someone else. They should be the faves.... but how do they deal with all these tough teams?
SEATTLE - they're creating space and getting draft picks to build around Durant. That's smart. Too bad their owners are crooks. Seattle, a great city, will not get to see these kids mature.
TORONTO - a small move, but they have a solid team. They could use a real wing soon, but they get by for now. They could make it to the second round, but that's it.
UTAH - the Korver move was great for all. That's all they really needed. This team could go far if not for everyone else. I don't know if they can take down SAN or PHX or even DAL, but they might be able to get pretty far.
WASHINGTON - no moves, as they will wait to see if they sign Jamison and Arenas. They'll make the playoffs but not go anywhere.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
...think about these too....
So many possibilities! I worked out so much stuff to be done in the next two days.
Some important issues.....
INDIANA and CHICAGO
After I made that trade work today, I realized that Chicago has another possibility, like Dallas did with Van Horn, in a sign-and-trade with P.J. Brown, who hasn't played this season. But it seems like they've had the chance to use that a couple times, and either he's said no or it didn't work. So I don't know if they can do that now. I do know that the Pacers would love it if the Bulls would take on Jamaal Tinsley's contract, and the Bulls would need someone to back up Chris Duhon after that trade. Maybe they could work it out.
RONNIE RON
Lots of specualtion about Artest lingers, and Denver seems like an interested candidate. Here's the trade many have heard:
SACTO deals Artest to DENVER for Eduardo Najera and Linus Kleiza
I don't think the Nugs need that; they need to just hope that Kenyon Martin and Nene get healthy and not take on any more big contracts. UNLESS....
ARTEST POSS 1
Kings deal Artest and Kenny Thomas to DENVER for J.R. Smith, Nene, and Eduardo Najera
If the Nuggs can convince the Kings to take Nene instead of Kleiza, then I think the Kings may want some help. First, they get rid of Thomas' contract, which helps. Then, they get cap relief with Najera and a chance to maybe give Smith something. Who knows if he can pan out, but he's still young and a good shooter.
Of course, Nene and Artest can be traded straight-up, but do the Kings take that risk? If they accept Nene's big contract with his injury history, they'll probably want more.
----------------
But I think that the Nuggs should make another move (more on that later) and that the Kings should do what I've been saying for a while: send Ron home. It might be the only way to ensure his sanity, and he can help the Knicks immensely, since he plays D and he will allow David Lee to play more.
ARTEST POSS 2
SAC deals Artest and Thomas to NEW YORK for Zach Randolph and Fred Jones
This is much better. I know, it's an exchange of two head cases, and peopel are leery about getting either one of them. But Randolph is pissed with Eddy Curry (yes, Isiah, we told you it wouldn't work) and wants out..... he could be the guy in Sacto. Artest gives New York swagger, and much improved D, since trading Randolph will free up more time for Lee and Renaldo Balkman. I've been pushing for this to happen all season, and I know the Kings now want to take a look at Shelden Williams, but Zach is a proven scorer and it would give them a real post threat for once. And they get rid of Thomas and some cap space. New York will always take on big contracts to get what they want. Sacto can take advantage of that.
DENVER
So if Denver doesn't take Artest, then what? I think they just need to give Kleiza some time at the four if everyone is hurt. But I do think there's an easy trade for them:
DENVER trades Najera and Von Wafer to MINNESOTA for Marko Jaric
This isn't much but it makes a lot of sense. Minnesota has been dying to get rid of Jaric, ever since they made that God-awful trade. The Nuggs need someone who can handle a little bit, ot let Iverson play off the ball, who is a shooter. Jaric hasn't been a great starter, but I think he'll fit well next to Iverson as a tall point in some lineups.
Now... this next one almost went through, but it's just a littlllllllllllllle bit too much for Denver. Don't they have more people to trade? All they need is to bring back someone they cut and include them. This one gives Denver more rebounding and Minnesota even more cap relief:
DENVER trades Najera, Wafer, and Yakhouba Diawara (plus a little extra) to MINN for Jaric and Mark Madsen
Man, that would be a great easy trade for both these teams. The Wolves would get so much relief this summer with Jaric and Madsen gone, plus the Infamous Horrible Theo Ratliff contract finally over. I hope Denver is listening.
SAM I AM
Sadly, the Celtics cannot get Sam Cassell through any kind of logical trade. All the guys they can afford to trade are too cheap, and L.A. isn't going to take a multi-year deal for an expiring one, even if it's not that much. I was wondering if they could negotiate some sort of under-the-table deal where the Celts send Gabe Pruitt and a first round pick to the Clips for a couple second rounders in the far future.... with the understanding that the Clippers will release Cassell at some point. I think the Commish would find that too obvious. Alas.
LEBRON IS ANGRY
Is he? Everyone assumes so, after his team failed to land Bibby, then saw the not-too-impressive deal that actually worked. He did campaign for Kidd or someone big to help.
Since everything he does is being monitored closely, it's hard to believe that he likes this team. The pressure on Danny Ferry to get him a supporting cast is mounting with every scowl. Yet, I think Ferry might be able to convince him that now is not the time. Cleveland doesn't have much to trade with right now unless they give up key players, and I think that was why they didn't get Bibby (Sacramento needed at least one potential big man, and they wanted to keep Gooden, and I don't blame them).
After the season, however, Cleveland suddenly has some pull. Eric Snow, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones will all be in the last year of their deals NEXT year, so they will be attractive come summertime and into next season. Cleveland will have almost 16 million in expiring contracts next year, which can get them some big time help from teams looking for cap relief. Right now, they have Ira Newble for 3 mil and Shannon Brown for 1. That's not gonna be enough unless they part with Gooden or Varejao, and those guys are too important.
And no one will take on the contracts of Hughes or Illgauskas. Sorry.
So maybe he can get LeBron to calm down a little and promise him a very big splash in the summer or at the beginning of next year. BUT THEN..... hasn't LeBron been killing himself this year???? He looks great, he's trying hard, and he's more dedicated than ever. Telling him to wait is tough. He's playing better than just about everyone.
So if Ferry feels the heat to do something now, here are two ideas of how to help:
CAVS POSS 1: SAVE J.J.!!!
ORLANDO trades J. J. Redick, James Augustine, and Keith Bogans to CLEVELAND for Sasha Pavlovic and Cedric Simmons, plus a future first rounder
Orlando keeps saying that they will not trade Redick. But then they don't play him, even though they need shooting. I think they need an upgrade at two guard over the redundant Bogans-Mo Evans combo. I also think they won't play Redick because he can't be a full two guard, but they have three point guards and he's not that either. He is like a Steve Kerr, a small guard who can shoot but needs to be in a system where he's not the main passer.
Cleveland is that place. They wanted Bibby because he's not a pure point - he's a good shooter who plays off other passers. Cleveland has two guys who can handle; they want someone who can shoot. That's how Dan Gibson made it. With him and Redick in the fold, they'd have two guys who could fill that position and shoot and not have to worry about handling. Bogans is insurance and will give them a little cap relief this year.
Meanwhile, Orlando gets Pavlovic, a good shooter with more size who isn't getting time in Cleveland. They might also take a look at Simmons, since they need a forward next to Dwight who can board. And they'll get a draft pick. I like this, especially if Orlando is not serious about their claim to keep Redick.
Now....
If LeBron really is adamant about getting someone now, and he wants that someone to be a true point like Jason Kidd, he can call up my old friends in Philly.
CAVS POSS 2: RETURN OF ANDRE
CAVS trade Ced Simmons, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown, draft pick, and Damon Jones to PHILLY for Andre Miller
The Sixers have been waffling on the decision to keep Miller or trade him. They are in a youth movement, and they want to give Louis Williams more time, but Miller has been good this year. They have a shot at the playoffs, somehow, but that's mostly because the conference sucks. Will they make a deal?
I would take this one. They get some cap relief now, and then more later (as some old terrible ones expire). They get two guys they might want to look at in Simmons and Brown, former first rounders, and then another draft pick. It's something. If they're just going to let Miller go after next year anyway, they might as well get something for him.... this is the last remnant of the trade that ended Iverson's time here, you know.
They didn't give up last year, but maybe now they'll see that they need a star player to really get ahead. I'd rather see them get a top three pick than win 36 games and get swept in the first round. That's not getting them anywhere.... they need a big impact guy soon. Give the kids time and let them rough it out. Atlanta and Chicago need to make the playoffs much more than we do.
For the Cavs, I guess it works. If LeBron likes it, I have to think it helps Cleveland. I'd use Miller and Pavlovic together, then bring in Hughes and Gibson. They'd have depth, for sure, but I don't know if it fits that system. Maybe LB is tired of doing everything and wants to play off the ball more. This could do that.
That's all I have for now, although I have a feeling there could be some post-deadline cuts and moves that will help teams.
Some important issues.....
INDIANA and CHICAGO
After I made that trade work today, I realized that Chicago has another possibility, like Dallas did with Van Horn, in a sign-and-trade with P.J. Brown, who hasn't played this season. But it seems like they've had the chance to use that a couple times, and either he's said no or it didn't work. So I don't know if they can do that now. I do know that the Pacers would love it if the Bulls would take on Jamaal Tinsley's contract, and the Bulls would need someone to back up Chris Duhon after that trade. Maybe they could work it out.
RONNIE RON
Lots of specualtion about Artest lingers, and Denver seems like an interested candidate. Here's the trade many have heard:
SACTO deals Artest to DENVER for Eduardo Najera and Linus Kleiza
I don't think the Nugs need that; they need to just hope that Kenyon Martin and Nene get healthy and not take on any more big contracts. UNLESS....
ARTEST POSS 1
Kings deal Artest and Kenny Thomas to DENVER for J.R. Smith, Nene, and Eduardo Najera
If the Nuggs can convince the Kings to take Nene instead of Kleiza, then I think the Kings may want some help. First, they get rid of Thomas' contract, which helps. Then, they get cap relief with Najera and a chance to maybe give Smith something. Who knows if he can pan out, but he's still young and a good shooter.
Of course, Nene and Artest can be traded straight-up, but do the Kings take that risk? If they accept Nene's big contract with his injury history, they'll probably want more.
----------------
But I think that the Nuggs should make another move (more on that later) and that the Kings should do what I've been saying for a while: send Ron home. It might be the only way to ensure his sanity, and he can help the Knicks immensely, since he plays D and he will allow David Lee to play more.
ARTEST POSS 2
SAC deals Artest and Thomas to NEW YORK for Zach Randolph and Fred Jones
This is much better. I know, it's an exchange of two head cases, and peopel are leery about getting either one of them. But Randolph is pissed with Eddy Curry (yes, Isiah, we told you it wouldn't work) and wants out..... he could be the guy in Sacto. Artest gives New York swagger, and much improved D, since trading Randolph will free up more time for Lee and Renaldo Balkman. I've been pushing for this to happen all season, and I know the Kings now want to take a look at Shelden Williams, but Zach is a proven scorer and it would give them a real post threat for once. And they get rid of Thomas and some cap space. New York will always take on big contracts to get what they want. Sacto can take advantage of that.
DENVER
So if Denver doesn't take Artest, then what? I think they just need to give Kleiza some time at the four if everyone is hurt. But I do think there's an easy trade for them:
DENVER trades Najera and Von Wafer to MINNESOTA for Marko Jaric
This isn't much but it makes a lot of sense. Minnesota has been dying to get rid of Jaric, ever since they made that God-awful trade. The Nuggs need someone who can handle a little bit, ot let Iverson play off the ball, who is a shooter. Jaric hasn't been a great starter, but I think he'll fit well next to Iverson as a tall point in some lineups.
Now... this next one almost went through, but it's just a littlllllllllllllle bit too much for Denver. Don't they have more people to trade? All they need is to bring back someone they cut and include them. This one gives Denver more rebounding and Minnesota even more cap relief:
DENVER trades Najera, Wafer, and Yakhouba Diawara (plus a little extra) to MINN for Jaric and Mark Madsen
Man, that would be a great easy trade for both these teams. The Wolves would get so much relief this summer with Jaric and Madsen gone, plus the Infamous Horrible Theo Ratliff contract finally over. I hope Denver is listening.
SAM I AM
Sadly, the Celtics cannot get Sam Cassell through any kind of logical trade. All the guys they can afford to trade are too cheap, and L.A. isn't going to take a multi-year deal for an expiring one, even if it's not that much. I was wondering if they could negotiate some sort of under-the-table deal where the Celts send Gabe Pruitt and a first round pick to the Clips for a couple second rounders in the far future.... with the understanding that the Clippers will release Cassell at some point. I think the Commish would find that too obvious. Alas.
LEBRON IS ANGRY
Is he? Everyone assumes so, after his team failed to land Bibby, then saw the not-too-impressive deal that actually worked. He did campaign for Kidd or someone big to help.
Since everything he does is being monitored closely, it's hard to believe that he likes this team. The pressure on Danny Ferry to get him a supporting cast is mounting with every scowl. Yet, I think Ferry might be able to convince him that now is not the time. Cleveland doesn't have much to trade with right now unless they give up key players, and I think that was why they didn't get Bibby (Sacramento needed at least one potential big man, and they wanted to keep Gooden, and I don't blame them).
After the season, however, Cleveland suddenly has some pull. Eric Snow, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones will all be in the last year of their deals NEXT year, so they will be attractive come summertime and into next season. Cleveland will have almost 16 million in expiring contracts next year, which can get them some big time help from teams looking for cap relief. Right now, they have Ira Newble for 3 mil and Shannon Brown for 1. That's not gonna be enough unless they part with Gooden or Varejao, and those guys are too important.
And no one will take on the contracts of Hughes or Illgauskas. Sorry.
So maybe he can get LeBron to calm down a little and promise him a very big splash in the summer or at the beginning of next year. BUT THEN..... hasn't LeBron been killing himself this year???? He looks great, he's trying hard, and he's more dedicated than ever. Telling him to wait is tough. He's playing better than just about everyone.
So if Ferry feels the heat to do something now, here are two ideas of how to help:
CAVS POSS 1: SAVE J.J.!!!
ORLANDO trades J. J. Redick, James Augustine, and Keith Bogans to CLEVELAND for Sasha Pavlovic and Cedric Simmons, plus a future first rounder
Orlando keeps saying that they will not trade Redick. But then they don't play him, even though they need shooting. I think they need an upgrade at two guard over the redundant Bogans-Mo Evans combo. I also think they won't play Redick because he can't be a full two guard, but they have three point guards and he's not that either. He is like a Steve Kerr, a small guard who can shoot but needs to be in a system where he's not the main passer.
Cleveland is that place. They wanted Bibby because he's not a pure point - he's a good shooter who plays off other passers. Cleveland has two guys who can handle; they want someone who can shoot. That's how Dan Gibson made it. With him and Redick in the fold, they'd have two guys who could fill that position and shoot and not have to worry about handling. Bogans is insurance and will give them a little cap relief this year.
Meanwhile, Orlando gets Pavlovic, a good shooter with more size who isn't getting time in Cleveland. They might also take a look at Simmons, since they need a forward next to Dwight who can board. And they'll get a draft pick. I like this, especially if Orlando is not serious about their claim to keep Redick.
Now....
If LeBron really is adamant about getting someone now, and he wants that someone to be a true point like Jason Kidd, he can call up my old friends in Philly.
CAVS POSS 2: RETURN OF ANDRE
CAVS trade Ced Simmons, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown, draft pick, and Damon Jones to PHILLY for Andre Miller
The Sixers have been waffling on the decision to keep Miller or trade him. They are in a youth movement, and they want to give Louis Williams more time, but Miller has been good this year. They have a shot at the playoffs, somehow, but that's mostly because the conference sucks. Will they make a deal?
I would take this one. They get some cap relief now, and then more later (as some old terrible ones expire). They get two guys they might want to look at in Simmons and Brown, former first rounders, and then another draft pick. It's something. If they're just going to let Miller go after next year anyway, they might as well get something for him.... this is the last remnant of the trade that ended Iverson's time here, you know.
They didn't give up last year, but maybe now they'll see that they need a star player to really get ahead. I'd rather see them get a top three pick than win 36 games and get swept in the first round. That's not getting them anywhere.... they need a big impact guy soon. Give the kids time and let them rough it out. Atlanta and Chicago need to make the playoffs much more than we do.
For the Cavs, I guess it works. If LeBron likes it, I have to think it helps Cleveland. I'd use Miller and Pavlovic together, then bring in Hughes and Gibson. They'd have depth, for sure, but I don't know if it fits that system. Maybe LB is tired of doing everything and wants to play off the ball more. This could do that.
That's all I have for now, although I have a feeling there could be some post-deadline cuts and moves that will help teams.
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