bracketology '08

Yes, it's bracket time. I know I haven't wrote much (er, anything) on college hoops this season, but I have been slowly paying more attention lately... mostly for prospects (i.e. freshman) but also getting a decent picture.

Then again, a decent picture is sometimes too much. People over-analyze and then the office pool goes to the secretary... or does it? The old cliche is true sometimes, but I've done okay in a few years. I've had some good calls (George Mason vs. Wichita State in the most improbable sweet sixteen in 2006; Florida over Duke in 2000; LSU over Duke in 2006) and a lot of misses. I think I can pick a decent bracket now based on one thing:

I know whom NOT to pick.

See, everyone wants to find the hot upstarts and cinderellas. That's hard. That requires a ton of luck. It's not always predictable to know who will get hot. BUT, I do think it is easy to spot high ranking teams with problems. Remember, it's very rare that more than two of the # 1 seeds make it to the final four. Usually, one does, but then you have a few from different spots. The 2 seeds can be good and bad. The rest of them all appear in random order.

I think the three best teams in this field are UNC, UCLA, and Kansas, and by a significant lead over others. I like them. But it's just mathematically unlikely that they all make it to San Antonio - and damn near impossible that Memphis does too. You say, they're all # 1 seeds for a reason! Yes, they are. They're the best. But I swear they aren't all gonna make it.

How did I pick some broken brackets that I managed to get right? By eliminating high seeds I didn't trust. In 2006, I think the high seeds in the East bracket were UNC, Tennessee and Michigan State, whom I both frowned upon. I saw George Mason and Wichita fully capable of pulling the upset, because I didn't like the look of those teams. I didn't put George Mason in the final four, but who did? This strategy has led me to call some good early round action, but it has left me on the dry for the late rounds. It's not full-proof.

I think now I will look at the tournament as who I hate the least. Maybe my pessimism will pay off this year. Unlike college football, this is a tournament - someone has to win. The process of elimination seems just as good as anything.

So here are my picks, and I'll explain my reasons for each segment:

EAST

Round 1 - UNC, Indiana, Notre Dame, Wash St, Oklhoma, Louisville, Butler, Tennessee

Round 2 (sweet sixteen) - UNC, Wash St, Oklahoma, Butler

Round 3 (regional finals) - UNC, Butler

UNC advances

I don't trust Tennessee because they're small and rely on shooting too much. If they go cold, they're done. I liked Washington State as a sleeper all year, but they have the same problem. UNC, when it has the top seed, has always been pretty good in the region. Last year, they lost in overtime in the regional final, but I think the last time before that when they didn't make it with a top seed was in 1994. They're one of the safe bets.

I don't really like anyone in the bottom half of that bracket. Louisville and UT look shaky as high seeds. Oklahoma could do some damage, but do they have guards? I like Butler. Mid-majors do better when they're seeded low.

MIDWEST

Round 1 - Knasas, UNLV, Villanova, Siena, USC, Wisconsin, Davidson, Gtown

Round 2 - Kansas, Nova, USC, Georgetown

Round 3 - Kansas, Georgetown

Georgetown advances

I really hate this bracket. Kansas is the best team by far, but they have a bad history of choking. I'm scared to pick them, but I don't love anyone else. I actually really like USC, but I could also see them losing in the first round. Wisconsin is okay. I can see Villanova in the sweet sixteen - one of the teams who barely got in always makes noise, espeically in the 5-12 game. Vanderbilt sucks if they're not at home. Georgetown is tough because they're not as good as last year, but I hate them the least out of all these people. Kansas State might be dangerous, but they have to face USC. Everyone is in love with Davidson as a sleeper, so I'm backing off them.

SOUTH

Round 1 - Memphis, Miss St, Mich St, Pitt, Kentucky, Stanford, Miami, Texas

Round 2 - Memphis, Pitt, Kentucky, Texas

Round 3 - Memphis, Texas

Texas advances

Memphis is another high seed with not enough size. I like how they play, but they've had good teams the past few years and haven't made the final four. I don't like Michigan State, and Pitt usually falls apart in the big tourney. I really don't like Stanford that much. I do like Kentucky; they've been playing well lately. Texas is my pick because they seem to be doing strangely better without Kevin Durant, and D.J. Augustin is playing well.

WEST

Round 1 - UCLA, Tex A&M, Drake, UConn, Baylor, Xavier, WVU, Duke

Round 2 - UCLA, Drake, Xavier, WVU

Round 3 - UCLA, Xavier

UCLA advances

UCLA is the one sure thing here, because no one else here looks that good. Xavier has a shot and I like them in the elite eight, but that's about it. I would like Drake, but as I said, mid-majors usually struggle when they get a decent seed. They're better off coming in low. But UConn doesn't really impress me either. Duke I could not hate more, and not just because they're Duke. They have NO inside game. You need one decent big man to make it in the tourney, no matter how good your guards are. WVU at least has a good history of upsets. Purdue? No dice. Sorry, Big Ten.

FINAL FOUR

UNC over G'town

UCLA over Texas

FINAL: UNC 70, UCLA 64

Yeah, I know, not an imaginative final. These are the two best teams, and I can't really find a good reason for UNC to lose. UCLA has some injury problems and I worry what they will do if any of their perimeter guys are out. Otherwise, they are great. I still don't like Georgetown here, but I can't think of who else to put.


------

AWARDS FOR COLLEGE

ALL AMERICA FIRST

Michael Beasley, KSU
Tyler Hansbrough, UNC (Player of the Year)
Kevin Love, UCLA
D. J. Augustin, Texas
Chris Lofton, Tennessee

SECOND

Brook Lopez, Stanford
Shan Foster, Vandy
Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis
Stephen Curry, Davidson

THIRD

Sam Young, Pitt
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Darrell Arthur, Kansas
DeMarcus Nelson, Duke
O.J. Mayo, USC

HM

Eric Gordon, Ind
D. J. White, Ind
Derrick Rose, Memphis
Jarryd Bayless, Arizona
Brandon Rush, Kansas
Derrick Low, Wash. St.
Sean Singletary, Virginia
Jaycee Carroll, Utah St.
Dionte Christmas, Temple

ALL FROSH

Beasley
Love
Mayo
D. Rose
E. Gordon
Bayless

COY: Keno Davis, Drake