LeBron's choice: meh

Wow, I haven’t posted on here in a while. I guess this is as good as a time as ever to write about basketball, though. This was a big day. This was a big decision. Was it worth making a whole event out of? Probably not, although there was legitimate suspense.

When I heard LeBron say that he was going to Miami, I was really disappointed. I don’t fault him for trying to win. I don’t fault him for going to a nice area. I don’t fault him for wanting to have star teammates. I don’t know if this was the way to do it, on national television with a contrived special, but that’s not the worst thing here.

I like basketball. It’s always been my favorite sport and the one I would play and watch if I could pick just one. I like following the NBA. I like having a league with star players and good teams, but also just enough drama so it’s not obvious which team is going to win it all. This signing has created an imbalance that is going to put things out of whack.

A lot of experts are trying to dull the wild expectations for the Miami triumvirate, pointing out that they don’t have a center, a bench, enough point guards, and any real help for the stars. It’s true, but it’s not going to matter soon. In a short time, they will be getting an influx of older veterans looking for a chance to win. After this year, they will have some exceptions to use as well. They can find a decent center, especially since they just need a defensive guy. They will find shooters on the cheap. They don’t even need a real point guard since LeBron and Wade can handle the ball so much. They just need guys who will defend and shoot, and they can find them fairly easily once they settle the roster.

In the past 15 years, the Heat had a lot of money tied up in big players, but they managed to find unheralded role players to fill in the roster. Guys like Anthony Carter, Bruce Bowen, Ike Austin, (later) Keyon Dooling, my boy Rasual Butler, Udonis Haslem and Rafer Alston all got to play there while they had money tied up with bigger stars. Pat Riley has done it and he will do it. Getting three all-league guys in their prime was the hardest part, and they’ve done that.

So yes, I expect them to win now and win a lot more in the next few years. I don’t buy the people trying to downplay it. This is huge. LeBron’s decision alters the power in the East, not just for Miami, but for all the teams he passed on. With him and Bosh going to Miami, Cleveland and Toronto will suck. Hard. New Jersey has nothing yet - though I like their foundation, there is no player left that can turn things around for them anytime soon. New York is disappointed. They needed two big free agents and they’re not getting them. Even if they could land Tony Parker and Carmelo next year, I wouldn’t put them above Miami once they settle things. Their best bet might be to try to get Chris Paul. They need someone to get the ball to Amare, and if not, this team isn’t much better than it was the last few years. It might make the playoffs, but it’s not a lock. Atlanta is good but they’ve probably reached their ceiling. No one really considers them a title threat, even if they can win 50 games a year. They can’t spend much more money, and they’re small. Chicago is good, and if they would’ve gotten Joe Johnson, I would say they are a true contender, but they need more scoring now. I don’t know who is left that would save them. Milwaukee surprised people and showed some poise with some unknown guys, but they just spent a lot of money on guys with a history of attitude problems. Those were some bizarre moves after they had just put together a likable team. I don’t know what’s up with that franchise; they’ve been one of the nuttiest.

The rest of the conference is in bad shape. The Sixers? Yeah that didn’t work. The Bobcats are just okay and might lose Raymond Felton, the Pistons are a mess and full of bad contracts, the Wizards blew themselves up and will take a while to recover, the Pacers are the definition of mediocre and have been treading water unsuccessfully, and… that’s it. The only team that could go from lottery to playoffs is New York.

I have to say that Boston and Orlando are really the only teams you can put above Miami, and I’m dubious about them. Boston struggled during the regular season, and even though they made a triumphant rebirth in the playoffs, I wonder how much they have left. KG lifted himself up in the postseason, but he’s clearly hurting and on the downside. Those guys are all headed downhill, except for Rondo. Even though they made that great run, do you believe it will happen next year? In 2 years? I think it was their last stand.

Orlando finished the regular season hot, but didn’t look as coherent as they did a year ago in the playoffs. They’re probably the favorites… but no matter how bad Miami will get beat at center, do you trust Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis to handle Wade and LeBron? Dwight may kill inside, but then, who guards Bosh on the other end? I don’t trust that team completely. And again, in another year, they will have to make a decision on Vince and who knows what they will look like.

LeBron’s move really put the conference at whole into a state of panic. No team can deal with this firepower, they can only hope they have more balance. And again, after next year, things will look even better for Miami. Throw in the fact that Kobe is getting older, Amare left Phoenix, and Denver is a question mark….

Should we get ready for a couple of Miami vs. Oklahoma City finals? I don’t care if it will feature 4 of the best guys in the game, it just sounds awful. HEAT! THUNDER! It’s a freaking weather forecast.

That brings me to the second part of my post: the city aspect. I’m biased here, because I grew up near Philly in the rough Midwest-to-northeast sports craze. People care about sports there, maybe too much. We have awful teams sometimes, but we wear our devotion to them on our sleeve, and our suffering is like a badge of honor. See: Red Sox, Cubs, et al. Since I have moved to California, I have noticed the difference in bloodthirsty fans vs. laid back. It’s just not the same. Miami (the whole state of Florida, really) is very fair-weather, except for football. The Heat had such a weird crowd during the past few years, and they weren’t always into it. For us die-hards, it is painful to watch a beautiful city where people have better things to do get the spoils.

Until now, it was cool to have LeBron play in his hometown, a city that had suffered so much heartbreak. It would have been a great story, one of the best sports stories in years, for him to lead them to a title and erase all that pain. When I realized that the Sixers had made a terrible mistake this year, I drifted towards rooting for the Cavs for the playoffs, just because I wanted that pain to be over. I knew how they felt. I’m feeling you, Cleveland. You don’t deserve this.

I know that it was unfair to LeBron to have that much pressure on him, and he shouldn’t carry all the weight. It’s not worth killing him over. He did choose less money and better teammates. I’m more puzzled that he would change his legacy this quick. I’m not calling him Scottie Pippen as thousands seem to be. I think that he and Wade will try to say (at least publicly) that they are equals, and they will try to be treated as co-stars, rather than have one get more billing (don’t know if Bosh will be in the same level). But of course, he’ll never be seen in the same light and any discussion of great players will ultimately bring up the fact that he left to join up with other guys, while other great players had good sidekicks come to them. He was headed to a place in maybe the top ten players of all-time, but now, you can’t put him above Wade, and everything he does will have to be shared.

I remember when I was growing up and I desperately wanted Barkley to beat Jordan just once in the playoffs. Someone suggested to me that, if Sir Charles wanted a championship, he should try to join the Bulls. That sounded stupid to me. What would be the fun in that? Later on, he did join a team that had always foiled him in the playoffs, the Rockets. It felt weird. I had to root for the team that had embarrassed my own team and had grown to despise. It didn’t work. I know this is not like LeBron joining Boston or Orlando, but it is a weird collection of power. Someone compared it to A-Rod joining the Yankees. That’s not so far off. People are going to hate the Heat for having so much, and root against them every year. I always feel better when the Yankees lose in the playoffs. Of course, they didn’t last year. Talent usually wins out sooner or later, especially if it is kept in place for several years. People are going to hope the Heat never win, and they’re going to be disappointed. Maybe not this year, but soon.

(You know who looks really good right now? Tim Duncan. Look at his supporting cast in his first three titles. He had a few nice players …. who were either really old or really young. He never really played with another all-star in their actual prime until Parker and Ginobli developed, and that was after the 2003 title…. and in 2005 they weren’t all the way there either. David Robinson was not nearly what he once was during this stretch. Duncan’s resume might be the most amazing. Think about it.)

I don’t like it when all the big cities get the perks. New York and Los Angeles (and Chicago, to a point) get to have all the fun, and small markets are shut out. I liked having Cleveland in the mix. It’s odd that LeBron chose one middle-level market over another, especially after his flirtation with the Knicks and Bulls. But even though I don’t like those cities getting everything, I do understand why the league wants it that way. Big markets and interesting teams help boost ratings. I’ve been angry at how easy the Lakers and Celtics were able to rebuild, with some really lopsided trades, but they have tried hard and spent money, and they are signature franchises. Miami just isn’t in that group, although they will attract viewers. At least if LeBron had gone to New York, there would be a story. If he stayed, Cleveland was doing well with him there. I can’t imagine that David Stern is too happy about all his stars being in one place that doesn’t have great media ratings or fan support. I’m sure he liked all the attention this had been getting, but maybe he sees today how non-fans are turning on LeBron for his TV oversaturation and hating Miami as a whole. I don’t know. I think he would have liked more parity, or at least more stars spread out. It will be interesting to see how he responds.

In the end, I’m not feeling great about watching the league in the next few years. I like having the mystery of several teams that could win it. I don’t like having one dominant team and seeing if they win or not. I was always slightly disappointed that no one could knock off Jordan, I don’t like baseball as much because the Yankees-Red Sox pull is too much, and I was furious when the Kings couldn’t close the Lakers. There are some good young teams to watch like OKC and maybe the Clippers, but this is going to overshadow the whole league. If Miami had just gotten Bosh to go with Wade and spent that remaining money on several decent but not star level guys, and Lebron picked Cleveland / Chicago / New York / New Jersey, we would have a lively battle in the east next year with four really nice teams - Miami, LeBron’s team, Boston, and Orlando, with maybe Chicago (if he didn’t go there) also a possibility. Now it’s thinner at the top, and everyone else is going be losing hope.

I can only pray that more young stars will turn into superstars and give the league more balance, because with 30 teams to spread talent around, having 2 of the top 5 guys and 3 of the top 15 in one place is really nuts.

tanks, but no tanks... or maybe?

It's that time of year again.

While the college game is heating up (whoops, I guess I need to start paying attention to that for bracket busters), teams in the pro circuit face the stretch run. Aside from the wild playoff run in the west, which changes seemingly everyday (the Rockets are 3rd now???) there are a few teams in the east that are facing a slightly different challenge:

to tank or not to tank?

People have debated for years (notably Simmons) the merits and risks of mailing it in for the season. I write this now on the heels of two key events: the Sixers improbably making a playoff run and the Heat shutting down Dwyane Wade for the rest of the season (thanks, to you and Jermaine O'Neal, you were only the cornerstones of my fantasy team, it's okay, I still have John Salmons... jerks...). Two teams facing the challenge and taking opposite actions for it. How will this play out?

Actually, I don't think you can fault the Heat for this. They tried this year. They really did. They just failed miserably. They even made a late trade to give them veteran help (though, you could argue that anyone who trades for Ricky Davis is going for a disaster... maybe it was a conspiracy by Pat Riley all along?). Wade hasn't been playing great and they tried to win with him. They don't want him to get hurt for the long term, and they can't possibly make the playoffs. It's not pretty, but I think this is one of the more forgivable tank jobs. They do need to look at some young guys.

As for Pat Riley taking games off to scout.... umm.... shouldn't he resign as coach if he just wants to be the G.M.? It would be nice if he had a successor in place - oh wait, he did... three years ago, and then he pushed him off a cliff. Maybe we shouldn't forgive them.

Now, as for the hometown team, I openly campaigned for them to lose this year. And last year. I like Thaddeous Young, and he's been great.... but I'd still rather have Horford or Durant. This year, I thought they should dump Andre Miller for picks and young guys. But now? I'm getting on board. They're playing well, and they don't seem to have much competition for the last two spots. In fact, if they just go .500 from now on, they could make it easily. It's nice for a franchise that everyone thought was dead about a year ago.

But is it the best option? They look like they're having fun and raising the positive vibes in the city, which is always a good thing. There's even a distinct chance that they will make the playoffs and the Nuggets (with Iverson) won't, which might be seen as poetic justice if it didn't underscore just how unbalanced the conferences are. I can't blame them. They need some good news.

The rest of the teams in the East? Perhaps not. They all seem to be treading water. Atlanta is the only team that feels any pressure, because they don't have their pick, and they traded a lot for Bibby to win now. Chicago is in a weird state, Indiana has too many injuries, Charlotte has injuries and needs more people, and Jersey has to be thinking about the future without Kidd. Milwaukee needs an enforcer to be serious, and they need to maybe move some people (and hire Simmons to light a fire under this depressing franchise). Atlanta and Philly have the most to gain from making the playoffs, so I'd encourage the other teams to step aside.

[The sad thing about the east this year is that it's bad even when teams tried to be good. All those teams I just mentioned were not in rebuilding mode at the start of the season; they all wanted to make the playoffs. The Knicks and the Heat did, too. All of them would feel a little better with a playoff appearance, but none of them can seem to put anything together. Compare that to the west, where the bad teams at least knew they'd be bad and have young teams with plans for the future. This imbalance might be around for a while....]

So why tank this year? Because the west is so good, the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs could be worth three spots in the draft. We know that a very good team is getting shur out of the playoffs, like Denver or Golden State. It also appears that Sacramento and Portland are going to finish around .500. So, the last team out in the east will still get the 11th pick, most likely. In that cluster of teams, you might not think it matters who finishes where, but it could.

Right now, the 11 worst teams in order are the Heat, Wolves, Grizzlies, Sonics, Knicks, Clippers, Bucks, Pacers, Bobcats, Bulls, and Nets. After the Clippers, those last 5 teams are all within 3 games of each other. Why is this important? It's been a trend for years in the lottery that the worst team does not get the first pick - in fact, that rarely happens. Often, it's a team from the middle of the pack, like the 5th, 6th, or 7th worst team. Last year, none of the teams with the three worst records made it to the top three picks - Portland and Seattle lucked in with middle-lottery finishes.

Thus, my advice to those eastern teams who think they could sneak in and get killed by the Celtics: stop. Being the 7th worst team in the league is a nice position this year. I'd rather be there than be the 8th seed in the playoffs, quite honestly. There are only 7 or 8 guys that are really getting buzz in this draft; after that, it's a toss up. Plus, you might have a good shot at getting a high pick. Yes, I'm telling all of you not named Philly or Atlanta to think about the ol' tanker. Trust me, it's not such a bad idea this year.

RETRO: all star picks for '07

I know, again, that no one reading this probably cares, but I have my own selections for the NBA All-Star game in Vegas. I think the starters were all deserving, so that's nice. I hate to see the fans pick VINCE someone CARTER who hasn't really VINCECARTER! been playing that well, or that much. Shaq actually falls into that category now, but then, he did win the title, he's fun to watch at these events, and there aren't any great big men in the East who will be denied spots because of him. And who knows if he'll even play.

WEST:
Starters (determined by fan voting): Kobe, McGrady, Duncan, Yao (out), Garnett

Definites: Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer (likely out), Shawn Marion, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson

Injury Replacements and Wild Cards: Elton Brand, Zach Randolph, Baron Davis

Just Missed Out: Ray Allen, Tony Parker, Amare Stoudemire, Josh Howard

The first five or six of these were easy, but the last couple spots were tough. It helps that Boozer, a sure pick, is going to be out. I think both Carmelo and AI deserve to be there - their numbers are just too much to ignore, despite the fact that neither has played a whole lot in Denver. I'll go with Brand and Randolph as my injury replacements. The Clippers are getting better and he's holding them together despite constant trade rumors. Randolph has been great coming back, and even though his team sucks, they're better than I thought. Davis wins the last spot by a slim margin over Ray, because the Warriors still have a playoff shot and he's upped his assists. They're both gunners, so it's tough to decide. But Ray missed a few games, and his team is crap, so that seals it. Stoudemire has made an amazing comeback, but he's still inconsistent. Hard to fit him in with Nash and Marion. Parker and Howard are the second best players on great teams, but it's not quite enough individually.

UPDATE: The coaches saw differently. Parker's good... Carmelo should be in... Stoudemire? Meh.

EAST:
Starters: Shaq (maybe out), Wade, Arenas, LeBron, Bosh

Definites: Dwight Howard, Jermaine O'Neal

I guess: Vince Carter, Michael Redd, Jason Kidd, Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon

Very close: Joe Johnson, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce (would be a shoe-in if he wasn't hurt)

This was tough because there aren't any guarantees, except for Howard and Jermaine, because they're keeping teams in playoff races by themselves. Carter, Redd, Hamilton, Johnson, and Gordon are all scorers who don't do much else. Kidd doesn't score, but he's been amazing in every other category this year. Butler and Jamison have nearly identical numbers for the Wizards, who are good enough to warrant maybe two stars but not three. They'll split votes. Billups, Pierce, and Redd have also missed time with injuries.I decided to take both Carter (as much as I hate him - he made like three of these he never deserved to) and Kidd for having such good individual seasons, even though the Nets are disappointing. They're coming on a little bit now, and they don't have any post players to help out. Hamilton carried the Pistons with Billups missing time and 'Sheed sucking it up. Gordon is the only offensive creator on a team full of defenders. Their teams are doing too well to ignore. Pierce's great season ended too early, and now the Celtics are awful. Hopefully not as awful as the Sixers.

Redd gets the last spot by a hair over Joey Jo-Jo. His big scoring is too much to ignore, and while he's been hurt, and his team is falling, they were doing well when he was playing. He's one of the most valuable players in the conference. Johnson is scoring but isn't doing as much of the other things as the Hawks expected of him... and they still suck. It's not fair that Butler and Jamison are in the same position. If they were on separate teams, they might both make it. For stepping up, I think Butler has the advantage. He should be the injury pick if Shaq sits. If anyone else sits, it goes to Johnson. And if Vince doesn't make it, I will shed no tears (but he is playing great now).

UPDATE: Surprised to see Chauncey, but I have no major quarrels with their picks.

[And yes, that means I would pick the Heat, Nets, and Nuggets to have two players, despite their mediocrity, while the mighty Spurs and Mavs have just one each. It's not fair, but All Star games are never an exact science. By the way, I like the rosters for the rookie-sophomore challenge, and I have no idea if there will be a dunk contest, but even if no one important shows up, it can be fun. Maybe Iggy can come back and they'll just give it to him for being robbed last year.]