Of course this is the year that all # 1 seeds make it.
Of course.
Forget everything I said. Again.
I'm not even sure if UNC - UCLA is happening now. Memphis looks damn good.
Quick note for the pros circuit: I explained why lowly East teams didn't have much to play for, except for Atlanta, but I never thought about the good news for West teams. Portland would have liked to make the playoffs, but they'll take the 13th pick and use it (Stephen Curry? think about it...).
As I pointed out, the East teams in the lottery will almost certainly all be picking in the top 11. The difference between 8th and 9th seed is three spots. But look out west, where three teams are struggling to get in. The difference between the 8th and 9th seed? A whopping seven spots. The last team out in the west will pick 14th, but the last team in will probably be picking at 21 or 22. I know none of these three teams wants to miss the playoffs, but that's a nice consolation prize.
Now, Golden State and Denver have a lot of young talent and might be psychologically hurt by not making it, especially when they know they could wreak havoc as low seeds. For Dallas, it would be a disaster after the whole Kidd trade.... but wouldn't it be appropriate? This team needs a kick in the ass, and maybe this would be it. Dallas misses the playoffs and Avery might realize he needs to adjust some things. It would put pressure on them, but they need it. They can always blame Dirk's injury if that makes you feel better, Dallasites (Dallasans? Dallasers?).
They made a sly move in having their draft pick lottery-protected this year in case of emergency. They keep it now if they miss the playoffs. Would you rather have a first round loss and a summer of infighting, or a decent pick (that could be traded or used on a shooter) in the late lottery? Nothing short of a finals appearance will stop the turmoil, and it ain't gonna happen. I know Dallas would never think this way, but they might take a mulligan here.
I'm rooting hard for them to be the odd one out... I don't need to see Kidd hoisting ugly shots and glaring at Avery while they get blown out by San Antonio, when I could have G State or Denver bringing much more excitement. I'm sorry, Cuban, but someone had to go and it's you.
Showing posts with label hes not kidding. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hes not kidding. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Sunday, February 24, 2008
the big break, reconsidered
Okay, now after the trades have been made and we can see where people are going, I can make some predictions and give grades out to all...
ATLANTA - great trade for Bibby. Their bench is a little thin now, but they can easily grab a playoff spot without any injuries. I see them winning 40 games and losing in the first round... but it's a step.
BOSTON - just want to see if Sam Cassell does get cut and if they move. They're going to win 60 easy, but will they get past Detroit and/or Cleveland?
CHARLOTTE - no moves. They need another big guy in the draft to get anywhere. No playoffs.
CHICAGO - some have killed them for this trade, but at least they didn't give up any of their young stars. They can see who plays well for the rest of the season and then make moves. Yes, they're likely stuck with Larry Hughes, but they didn't commit to Ben Gordon anyway. This isn't over for them; we'll see how the summer goes. As for the playoffs now, I kinda doubt it, but they could sneak in there.
CLEVELAND - the busiest team completely changed itself... for the better? Ben Wallace brings more D but less O than Drew Gooden. Wally can shoot, but can't guard anyone. I guess they want to give Pavlovic more minutes. I do love Delonte West on this team to fill in for Gibson, but this is a weird trade: they go down in pure talent but get pieces who fit better. At least they can say that they'll still have lots of expiring contracts next year if it doesn't work (Damon Jones, Snow, Wally, Joe Smith). They could try again, and they qualmed LB for now.
Do they make the finals again? I like Boston and Detroit better, but I give them more of a shot than I did.
DALLAS - I like the Kidd trade. I do. I just think that he and Jason Terry in the backcourt is better than what they had. Losing Diop was bad, but they could pick someone up off waivers soon, and they wanted to give Brandon Bass more time. Depending on matchups, they could lose in the first round or make it all the way. I think it will be in the middle.
DENVER - so glad they didn't make the Artest trade. They need to see if they can salvage JR Smith or Nene or K Mart first. And they should play Kleiza at the four. They're going to struggle with the playoffs, but they could make it in.
DETROIT - shrewd moves have pushed them right back near the top. They now have the depth they haven't lately, and they'll be more focused than they were the past two years. Cleveland and Boston will push them, but I'd say they are the slight faves in the East.
GOLDEN STATE - no moves other than getting Webber, who seems a little redundant. They will once again be a dangerous low seed, but nothing more. They could miss the postseason if they can't beat out Denver and Houston.
HOUSTON - some small moves that helped, but not much in changes. They just want to get healthy. I think they make it, but this may not be the year they finally get out of the first round, unless they get a good matchup.
INDIANA - surprised that they did not trade JO. He has been hurt, but they need to retool. They're stuck in the bad place between playoffs and really starting over. They could sneak in, but would that change anything? This summer, they will have to do something.
LA CLIPPERS - no moves, still waiting for word on Brand and Livingston. They have to make some decisions soon. A nice pick will help.
LA LAKERS - the best run team this year. Who could see Mitch Kupchak as the exec of the year? Gasol will help them stay afloat, but I don't think they make the finals this year. They're still growing, and the other west powers have loaded teams. But next year, and for the next few years, they might be the faves.
MEMPHIS - just end this franchise already. They don't care.
MIAMI - nice rebuilding kick-start with the Shaq trade. With a top draft pick, they can fill out some spaces quickly. They can take a look at Earl Barron, Alex Johnson, and Marcus Banks, in the meantime.
MILWAUKEE - they want to win now, so they will push for the playoffs, but they just don't have enough. Too many perimeter guys, no defense, no toughness. They might be better off trading some people, but they'll wait.
MINNESOTA - slolwy building and seeing who works. Gerald Green wasn't, so getting rid of him was okay. They'll get some contracts off the books, and another high pick, and they can start to put something together ... eventually.
NEW JERSEY - they needed to make the Kidd trade, and they have a good nuclues now. They can draft a scoring big man and maybe trade Vince in the summer, and they'll be okay. THey should shut everyone down for now.
NEW ORLEANS - a few nice moves to tweak the roster, and they've been great. I still can't see them making the finals or even the conference finals, and I suspect they will cool down, but it has been a great year no matter what.
NEW YORK - typical Isiah: this team is ready to kill each other, he has a lot of options, and he does nothing. I want an implosion. At least they'll finally be keeping their lottery pick.
ORLANDO - surprised that they did not add a real two guard or power forward, but they like their system for now. I guess. They can probably make it out of the first round, but no more. They need to address some spots this summer.
PHILLY - my boys did nothing, even though I was leaning towards trading Andre Miller and saving space/draft picks and losing. Now, they have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. Is it worth it? I don't know. I think they need another good big man, and they're not getting it this way.
PHOENIX - we'll have to see in the playoffs if the Shaq trade works, but I'm more worried about them giving up all the draft picks. they could use them now -they're lacking depth. I think it's a toos up between them and the Spurs again, with the Lakers and Mavs hunting.
PORTLAND - they've cooled down, but will be a force in the next few years. A dynamic force.
SACRAMENTO - the Bibby trade had to be kind of disappointing, considering they got one decent chip (Shelden) and didn't give up contracts. Atlanta might have taken more people, but they didn't have anyone to give. Also, they kept Artest, which is still an unknown. A late lottery pick won't help; they need to make more deals.
SAN ANTONIO - they made an excellent deal in picking up Kurt Thomas. They might miss Barry's shooting, but they could still bring him back or grab someone else. They should be the faves.... but how do they deal with all these tough teams?
SEATTLE - they're creating space and getting draft picks to build around Durant. That's smart. Too bad their owners are crooks. Seattle, a great city, will not get to see these kids mature.
TORONTO - a small move, but they have a solid team. They could use a real wing soon, but they get by for now. They could make it to the second round, but that's it.
UTAH - the Korver move was great for all. That's all they really needed. This team could go far if not for everyone else. I don't know if they can take down SAN or PHX or even DAL, but they might be able to get pretty far.
WASHINGTON - no moves, as they will wait to see if they sign Jamison and Arenas. They'll make the playoffs but not go anywhere.
ATLANTA - great trade for Bibby. Their bench is a little thin now, but they can easily grab a playoff spot without any injuries. I see them winning 40 games and losing in the first round... but it's a step.
BOSTON - just want to see if Sam Cassell does get cut and if they move. They're going to win 60 easy, but will they get past Detroit and/or Cleveland?
CHARLOTTE - no moves. They need another big guy in the draft to get anywhere. No playoffs.
CHICAGO - some have killed them for this trade, but at least they didn't give up any of their young stars. They can see who plays well for the rest of the season and then make moves. Yes, they're likely stuck with Larry Hughes, but they didn't commit to Ben Gordon anyway. This isn't over for them; we'll see how the summer goes. As for the playoffs now, I kinda doubt it, but they could sneak in there.
CLEVELAND - the busiest team completely changed itself... for the better? Ben Wallace brings more D but less O than Drew Gooden. Wally can shoot, but can't guard anyone. I guess they want to give Pavlovic more minutes. I do love Delonte West on this team to fill in for Gibson, but this is a weird trade: they go down in pure talent but get pieces who fit better. At least they can say that they'll still have lots of expiring contracts next year if it doesn't work (Damon Jones, Snow, Wally, Joe Smith). They could try again, and they qualmed LB for now.
Do they make the finals again? I like Boston and Detroit better, but I give them more of a shot than I did.
DALLAS - I like the Kidd trade. I do. I just think that he and Jason Terry in the backcourt is better than what they had. Losing Diop was bad, but they could pick someone up off waivers soon, and they wanted to give Brandon Bass more time. Depending on matchups, they could lose in the first round or make it all the way. I think it will be in the middle.
DENVER - so glad they didn't make the Artest trade. They need to see if they can salvage JR Smith or Nene or K Mart first. And they should play Kleiza at the four. They're going to struggle with the playoffs, but they could make it in.
DETROIT - shrewd moves have pushed them right back near the top. They now have the depth they haven't lately, and they'll be more focused than they were the past two years. Cleveland and Boston will push them, but I'd say they are the slight faves in the East.
GOLDEN STATE - no moves other than getting Webber, who seems a little redundant. They will once again be a dangerous low seed, but nothing more. They could miss the postseason if they can't beat out Denver and Houston.
HOUSTON - some small moves that helped, but not much in changes. They just want to get healthy. I think they make it, but this may not be the year they finally get out of the first round, unless they get a good matchup.
INDIANA - surprised that they did not trade JO. He has been hurt, but they need to retool. They're stuck in the bad place between playoffs and really starting over. They could sneak in, but would that change anything? This summer, they will have to do something.
LA CLIPPERS - no moves, still waiting for word on Brand and Livingston. They have to make some decisions soon. A nice pick will help.
LA LAKERS - the best run team this year. Who could see Mitch Kupchak as the exec of the year? Gasol will help them stay afloat, but I don't think they make the finals this year. They're still growing, and the other west powers have loaded teams. But next year, and for the next few years, they might be the faves.
MEMPHIS - just end this franchise already. They don't care.
MIAMI - nice rebuilding kick-start with the Shaq trade. With a top draft pick, they can fill out some spaces quickly. They can take a look at Earl Barron, Alex Johnson, and Marcus Banks, in the meantime.
MILWAUKEE - they want to win now, so they will push for the playoffs, but they just don't have enough. Too many perimeter guys, no defense, no toughness. They might be better off trading some people, but they'll wait.
MINNESOTA - slolwy building and seeing who works. Gerald Green wasn't, so getting rid of him was okay. They'll get some contracts off the books, and another high pick, and they can start to put something together ... eventually.
NEW JERSEY - they needed to make the Kidd trade, and they have a good nuclues now. They can draft a scoring big man and maybe trade Vince in the summer, and they'll be okay. THey should shut everyone down for now.
NEW ORLEANS - a few nice moves to tweak the roster, and they've been great. I still can't see them making the finals or even the conference finals, and I suspect they will cool down, but it has been a great year no matter what.
NEW YORK - typical Isiah: this team is ready to kill each other, he has a lot of options, and he does nothing. I want an implosion. At least they'll finally be keeping their lottery pick.
ORLANDO - surprised that they did not add a real two guard or power forward, but they like their system for now. I guess. They can probably make it out of the first round, but no more. They need to address some spots this summer.
PHILLY - my boys did nothing, even though I was leaning towards trading Andre Miller and saving space/draft picks and losing. Now, they have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. Is it worth it? I don't know. I think they need another good big man, and they're not getting it this way.
PHOENIX - we'll have to see in the playoffs if the Shaq trade works, but I'm more worried about them giving up all the draft picks. they could use them now -they're lacking depth. I think it's a toos up between them and the Spurs again, with the Lakers and Mavs hunting.
PORTLAND - they've cooled down, but will be a force in the next few years. A dynamic force.
SACRAMENTO - the Bibby trade had to be kind of disappointing, considering they got one decent chip (Shelden) and didn't give up contracts. Atlanta might have taken more people, but they didn't have anyone to give. Also, they kept Artest, which is still an unknown. A late lottery pick won't help; they need to make more deals.
SAN ANTONIO - they made an excellent deal in picking up Kurt Thomas. They might miss Barry's shooting, but they could still bring him back or grab someone else. They should be the faves.... but how do they deal with all these tough teams?
SEATTLE - they're creating space and getting draft picks to build around Durant. That's smart. Too bad their owners are crooks. Seattle, a great city, will not get to see these kids mature.
TORONTO - a small move, but they have a solid team. They could use a real wing soon, but they get by for now. They could make it to the second round, but that's it.
UTAH - the Korver move was great for all. That's all they really needed. This team could go far if not for everyone else. I don't know if they can take down SAN or PHX or even DAL, but they might be able to get pretty far.
WASHINGTON - no moves, as they will wait to see if they sign Jamison and Arenas. They'll make the playoffs but not go anywhere.
Monday, January 28, 2008
january jonesin
With the midseason divide almost here, I look back and realize I haven't been updating that much. Work, work, work. I'll try to have something before the all-star break.
First, my all star picks:
STARTERS
EAST: Garnett, LeBron, D Howard, Wade, Billups
WEST: Dirk, Duncan, Boozer, C Paul, Kobe
BENCH
EAST: Caron Butler, Pierce, Bosh, Kidd, Rip, Joe Johnson, and ... who? I don't have a seventh guy. Seriously, no one stands out. Jamison, Josh Smith, Rich Jefferson, Redd, and Ray Allen could all make a case. I guess I like Jamison to give us some size... the Wizards are doing good without Arenas and that's worth something.
WEST: Melo, Yao, Baron, Nash, Iverson.... and I suppose Amare.... and a tie between Ginobli and B Roy. I felt like I missed a guard there... there are four guys under 6-3 there.... no, I'm good. I made that tie. I think we should let the west team have 13 and the east only 11. That's fair this year.
I want to see these people in the rookie game: Roy and Alrdidge; Durant and Jeff Green; Horford; Jamario Moon (great sleeper); Navarro and Rudy Gay; Corey Brewer; Yi; and ummm..... where are the second year guys? Bargnani is hurting but he's probably still in the top ten. 2006 is lacking for now.
Random trade ideas: I tried to figure out a deal for Kidd to Dallas for Devin Harris and other players, but that can't work because Dallas doesn't have many tradable guys. They could give up Erick Dampier, but that actually makes Jersey's cap worse. All of their expensive guys are too important or have too long contracts. Who knew Cuban could put himself in a spot where he couldn't make deals? Even a third team wouldn't help that much - Dallas just has nowhere to go with a big deal.
Kidd to Sacto, Bibby to Cleveland, and draft picks to Jersey? I figured out a way to make it work. But then Jersey doesn't get much for now, and they'd have cap relief in two years anyway when Kidd leaves.... and Kidd goes to the Kings, who might be near his hometown, but aren't a real contender. I doubt that he wants to go there.... so we're back to square one.
Maybe they can get involved with Dallas (Dallas gets Kidd, Jersey gets Harris, Cleveland gets Bibby, Sacto gets.... ummm.... )
Okay:
Sacto gets cap space and draft picks, mostly.... Jersey gets Harris, Dallas gets Kidd, Cleveland gets Bibby, and a lot of people are involved. This trade is contingent on some behind-the-scenes handshakes:
1. Dallas promises to New Jersey that if they accept Dampier now, they will trade for him over the summer with contracts that expire. So the Nets will have cap space heading into Brooklyn.
2. Sacto will cut Jerry Stackhouse, once acquired, so he can go back to the Mavericks. Cuban will send the Maloofs some cash and many draft picks for taking on his contract.
Dallas receives: Jason Kidd, Mikki Moore, Damon Jones (the latter two will be shipped to Jersey after the season is over to get back Dampier)
Cleveland receives: Mike Bibby, Eddie Jones (they might cut him)
New Jersey receives: Devin Harris, Nick Fazekas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Devean George, and the-merely-for-rental Erick Dampier.... besides, Harris all those guys (and the two they'll get for Dampier later) have contracts that are up soon.
Sacramento receives: Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, Jamal Magliorre, Ira Newble, Dwayne Jones, and Jerry Stackhouse (who will have something worked out)... plus draft picks from Cleveland and Dallas
Sacramento Kings
Incoming Players
Cedric Simmons Salary: $1,629,120 Years Remaining: 2
Shannon Brown Salary: $1,044,120 Years Remaining: 1
Jamaal Magloire Salary: $4,000,000 Years Remaining: 1
Ira Newble Salary: $3,441,900 Years Remaining: 1
Jerry Stackhouse Salary: $6,750,000 Years Remaining: 3
Dwayne Jones Salary: $770,610 Years Remaining: 1
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Nick Fazekas Salary: $427,163 Years Remaining: 2
Shareef Abdur-Rahim Salary: $5,800,000 Years Remaining: 3
Devean George Salary: $2,369,111 Years Remaining: 1
Erick Dampier Salary: $10,590,500 Years Remaining: 4
Devin Harris Salary: $3,995,003 Years Remaining: 6
Outgoing Players: Jamaal Magloire, Jason Kidd
Dallas Mavericks
Incoming Players
Mikki Moore Salary: $5,356,000 Years Remaining: 2
Damon Jones Salary: $4,172,432 Years Remaining: 2
Jason Kidd Salary: $19,728,000 Years Remaining: 2
Outgoing Players: Nick Fazekas, Devean George, Erick Dampier, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers
Incoming Players
Mike Bibby Salary: $13,500,000 Years Remaining: 2
Eddie Jones Salary: $1,830,000 Years Remaining: 1
Players: Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, Damon Jones, Ira Newble, Dwayne Jones
I think this might work. Obviously the Kings might want more for Bibby, like Drew Gooden or another forward.... but they still don't know what to do with Artest, and this gives them some financial flexibility. Simmons and Brown might do more with time. And they'll get lots of draft picks, so in this draft, they can probably find a good point guard and work from there.
This is contingent on a lot of secret deals, but that seems to help teams out sometimes. Because of all the craziness involved, I'd say it has about a 0.0003 % chance of happening.
But you have to admire that I came up with a four team deal that worked.
First, my all star picks:
STARTERS
EAST: Garnett, LeBron, D Howard, Wade, Billups
WEST: Dirk, Duncan, Boozer, C Paul, Kobe
BENCH
EAST: Caron Butler, Pierce, Bosh, Kidd, Rip, Joe Johnson, and ... who? I don't have a seventh guy. Seriously, no one stands out. Jamison, Josh Smith, Rich Jefferson, Redd, and Ray Allen could all make a case. I guess I like Jamison to give us some size... the Wizards are doing good without Arenas and that's worth something.
WEST: Melo, Yao, Baron, Nash, Iverson.... and I suppose Amare.... and a tie between Ginobli and B Roy. I felt like I missed a guard there... there are four guys under 6-3 there.... no, I'm good. I made that tie. I think we should let the west team have 13 and the east only 11. That's fair this year.
I want to see these people in the rookie game: Roy and Alrdidge; Durant and Jeff Green; Horford; Jamario Moon (great sleeper); Navarro and Rudy Gay; Corey Brewer; Yi; and ummm..... where are the second year guys? Bargnani is hurting but he's probably still in the top ten. 2006 is lacking for now.
Random trade ideas: I tried to figure out a deal for Kidd to Dallas for Devin Harris and other players, but that can't work because Dallas doesn't have many tradable guys. They could give up Erick Dampier, but that actually makes Jersey's cap worse. All of their expensive guys are too important or have too long contracts. Who knew Cuban could put himself in a spot where he couldn't make deals? Even a third team wouldn't help that much - Dallas just has nowhere to go with a big deal.
Kidd to Sacto, Bibby to Cleveland, and draft picks to Jersey? I figured out a way to make it work. But then Jersey doesn't get much for now, and they'd have cap relief in two years anyway when Kidd leaves.... and Kidd goes to the Kings, who might be near his hometown, but aren't a real contender. I doubt that he wants to go there.... so we're back to square one.
Maybe they can get involved with Dallas (Dallas gets Kidd, Jersey gets Harris, Cleveland gets Bibby, Sacto gets.... ummm.... )
Okay:
Sacto gets cap space and draft picks, mostly.... Jersey gets Harris, Dallas gets Kidd, Cleveland gets Bibby, and a lot of people are involved. This trade is contingent on some behind-the-scenes handshakes:
1. Dallas promises to New Jersey that if they accept Dampier now, they will trade for him over the summer with contracts that expire. So the Nets will have cap space heading into Brooklyn.
2. Sacto will cut Jerry Stackhouse, once acquired, so he can go back to the Mavericks. Cuban will send the Maloofs some cash and many draft picks for taking on his contract.
Dallas receives: Jason Kidd, Mikki Moore, Damon Jones (the latter two will be shipped to Jersey after the season is over to get back Dampier)
Cleveland receives: Mike Bibby, Eddie Jones (they might cut him)
New Jersey receives: Devin Harris, Nick Fazekas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Devean George, and the-merely-for-rental Erick Dampier.... besides, Harris all those guys (and the two they'll get for Dampier later) have contracts that are up soon.
Sacramento receives: Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, Jamal Magliorre, Ira Newble, Dwayne Jones, and Jerry Stackhouse (who will have something worked out)... plus draft picks from Cleveland and Dallas
Sacramento Kings
Incoming Players
Cedric Simmons Salary: $1,629,120 Years Remaining: 2
Shannon Brown Salary: $1,044,120 Years Remaining: 1
Jamaal Magloire Salary: $4,000,000 Years Remaining: 1
Ira Newble Salary: $3,441,900 Years Remaining: 1
Jerry Stackhouse Salary: $6,750,000 Years Remaining: 3
Dwayne Jones Salary: $770,610 Years Remaining: 1
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Nick Fazekas Salary: $427,163 Years Remaining: 2
Shareef Abdur-Rahim Salary: $5,800,000 Years Remaining: 3
Devean George Salary: $2,369,111 Years Remaining: 1
Erick Dampier Salary: $10,590,500 Years Remaining: 4
Devin Harris Salary: $3,995,003 Years Remaining: 6
Outgoing Players: Jamaal Magloire, Jason Kidd
Dallas Mavericks
Incoming Players
Mikki Moore Salary: $5,356,000 Years Remaining: 2
Damon Jones Salary: $4,172,432 Years Remaining: 2
Jason Kidd Salary: $19,728,000 Years Remaining: 2
Outgoing Players: Nick Fazekas, Devean George, Erick Dampier, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers
Incoming Players
Mike Bibby Salary: $13,500,000 Years Remaining: 2
Eddie Jones Salary: $1,830,000 Years Remaining: 1
Players: Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, Damon Jones, Ira Newble, Dwayne Jones
I think this might work. Obviously the Kings might want more for Bibby, like Drew Gooden or another forward.... but they still don't know what to do with Artest, and this gives them some financial flexibility. Simmons and Brown might do more with time. And they'll get lots of draft picks, so in this draft, they can probably find a good point guard and work from there.
This is contingent on a lot of secret deals, but that seems to help teams out sometimes. Because of all the craziness involved, I'd say it has about a 0.0003 % chance of happening.
But you have to admire that I came up with a four team deal that worked.
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