NBA previewwwwwwwww?

It's almost time for the season to start. It seems like the postseason never really ended, with all the big news and lackluster finals and all... most fans were looking forward to the draft and the trade season and free agency and such, and now, suddenly, the real season is about to begin. Are you ready? I'm not.

I was going to start my annual preview soon, something I've taken pride in since I was 12. But this year, I don't feel like it's really the end. I kept waiting for the Lakers to do something, anything, and then the Marion - Kirilenko news came out, and I held off on any predictions. I was sure another big deal was upcoming. Then nothing happened. Everyone arrived at camp, somewhat begrudgingly but ready to play. I decided to proceed with caution as I had planned.

Then, last week, the Laker soap opera boiled up again. Kobe showed up to camp, but he and Dr. Buss publicly aired grievances, and now everyone is scrambling to throw out deal scenarios again. I had to look back over all the Kobe trades I suggested on here months ago. I don't know if any of them will work, but maybe..... and then how do I write a preview if major moves are pending? The Lakers could be the same low-level playoff team as last year, or they could be a solid contender, or they could be completely decimated at the end of the season, and I have no idea which will happen.

Some things I DO know:

1. Something is probably going to happen. It used to be thought that superstar trades were impossible, for salary cap and loyalty reasons, but look at the past few years - Shaq, Garnett, Iverson, even Vince, were all moved eventually. The Mavs will look at deals even if they have to lose the reigning MVP. It's not impossible for Kobe to leave.

2. Indiana isn't going anywhere. I know talks between the Lakers and them stalled, and Buss is in a tough spot, but I have to think they can come up with something. The Pacers need a complete overhaul. Why aren't they making something happen?

3. The Lakers have a tough choice of when to do things. If they do nothing now, they could try to win Kobe back with a godo start to the season. But if it goes bad, he'll really demand a trade and they'll be stuck like the Sixers were last year. And they'll lose value on him. But then they also might want to wait so other trades (especially those involving players who just signed) could materialize.

So what do I do? I suppose I will begin this as planned, and be ready to edit if anything goes down. Thank you, internet technology, for allowing me to change what I post quickly and easily.

Where do I rank Indiana though? I gues it doesn't matter if they act or not, or when - they're going to suck this year. How much is unknown.


Anyway, here are some ideas on Kobe's potential suitors, as I rank them.

1. BULLS

This is still the most likely, because they have depth and appealing prospects, they're in the East, they need a leader, and Kobe likes them. The real question is what the Lakers can get out of this. The Bulls will gladly give up Ben Gordon, and I'm thinking they can part with Ty Thomas, but do they dare include Deng or Hinrich? I say the Lakers would do this now with Gordon, Thomas, Selfosha, future draft picks, and cap filler... and the Bulls would be able to keep most of their core intact. They also wouldn't have to worry about investing too much in extensions, since Gordon and Thomas would be out and only Deng left to pay.

It makes the most sense, if they can work on it. I know the Bulls would like to have their young core develop together, but I'd make that deal in a second as long as I kept Deng.

2. NETS

They haven't been mentioned much, but Kobe enjoyed playing with Kidd this year and they will be in New York soon. They have the trading chips: a guy who can score and sell seats in Vince, and a potential star big man in Kristic. So that looks good. But then the Nets would be the same perimeter based team as they have been, with Kobe inserted. And the cap space doesn't work out yet (Kristic is still cheap, he needs to have an extension), considering that the Lakers would probably throw in a forward to help this out.

And if the Lakers settle for Carter and Jefferson and spare pieces (no Kidd or Kristic), well, Kupchak should just hang himself from the rafters. There's too much at stake here - Kristic makes or breaks this deal for both sides, and it can't really be balanced.... for now.

3. SUNS

Kobe mentioned them and they have a nice package, even without Nash or Stoudemire. If they take Marion and Barbosa, plus young guys and draft picks (Phoenix does have Atlanta's), that's not a bad deal. It gives the Lakers a lot of young talent, even if they slip. Remember when Marion said he'd like to be the high scorer on a medicore team over his current situation? Here's his chance.

This is likely not to happen, though, for two simple reasons: the Suns are rivals, and they're cheap. I doubt they'd spend the cash to keep Kobe and improve based on their recent moves. A Kobe/Cook swap for Marion/Barbosa works, but the Suns have to dip into their trade exception for it. Would they do that? Will Buss send Kobe to a team that plays the Lakers often? I doubt it. Too bad, because this would put the Suns over the top and give Marion some peace. Maybe Steve Kerr can beg his boss on behalf of the fact that Kobe is, um, WORTH IT!

(and worth a title?)

4. MAVERICKS

They keep being mentioned as a major player, even though they are in the same conference. Kobe did list them and Buss apparently can withstand Mark Cuban, which is a rarity amongst owners.

But is this really a good fit? Why would the Lakers take all the supporting players on the Mavs, which is the first option, or the Mavs make themselves into the new Lakers, which is the second option? If the Mavs do give up Dirk, then Kobe gets to play with a supporting cast that helps him but doesn't have any stars like he wants. They'll have to involve more people to make it work, because the Mavs have no fours and the Lakers lots. So basically then, Kobe will be in the same situation as the past few years. If the Mavs don't give up Dirk, the Lakers will come away without any real stars (Josh Howard is good, but he's an overachiever who benefits greatly playing alongside Nowitzki) and a big hole on their roster... and the Mavs will be a two man team with the same problems Boston faces, only much worse. So I don't think this is going to happen in any way. The pieces just don't fit.

But then, Cuban has an itchy trigger finger...

5. KNICKS

As much as we all think the league wants this to happen, there's no way the pieces fit. The Knicks are better off managing the cap (whoops, Isiah) and acquiring space (yoinks) and positioning themselves for a big free agent down the road, like Kobe and LeBron in a few years. They haven't done that, instead trading for people they can't get rid of later. Nicely done.

The only way for them to even dream of Kobe is for the Lakers to accept a collection of overpaid guys who aren't stars. Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph may put up good numbers offensively, but they're nowhere near the franchise level the Lakers are looking for. The Knicks could throw a wave of young talent to go with them, but none of these guys are stars in any sense. The Lakers could go for the cap relief, knowing that they can sign free agents in a few years, but why not get someone actually good? New York just doesn't have enough... but I can't count them out, for obvious reasons.

6. HAWKS

Yeah, I know, Kobe would never approve of this. But someone threw out a swap of Joe Johnson and Al Horford for Kobe and one of the forwards. You know what? That's not a bad deal for either side. The Lakers get two young starters who are true quality (that's their best pickup outside of the Bulls), and the Hawks get a true star and someone the fans could actually care about for once. Too bad their ownership group would probably turn it down after fighting again.

7. ROCKETS

Kobe straight up for T Mac? With a couple of the Houston guards thrown in? It would work, I suppose, but would it help either team that much? Hmm... this is intriguing, even if I don't believe it....

8. CELTICS

Rumors that the Celtics would trade Pierce back to his native LA have been floating around for a while, epecially when he was unhappy. He's the rare player who could almost match Kobe's scoring and popularity..... but that would be pretty mean for Boston to finally give him help and then send him packing. After all, ownership loves him. It's why they mortgaged their future to get him other stars instead of trading him for a youth movement. So as much as it makes sense to LA people, it's not gonna happen.

9. SPURS

Kobe for Parker and Ginobli? It would simplify things, but the Lakers want a big man more than a point guard who shoots. Plus San Antonio likes their system how it is.

10. SIXERS

Iggy and T. Young won't get it done because then Kobe has no supporting cast again. He'd be replicating Iverson in the early years.... although, that might be enough to get somewhere in the East.



So as far as I see it, the Bulls are the most likely candidate by far. If Jersey cooks up something or the Suns change their minds, they might work, but the Bulls have the most to offer and the resources to survive. Will this happen anytime soon? I doubt it, but I can't say. I'll start my preview soon with eraser in hand.