The playoffs just got interesting and less interesting. There are a ton of ways for this all to play out, but it the end, it won't matter, because the finals are set: Lakers - Cavs. Only a few catastrophic injuries could stop this from happening. The injuries that have already happened have made a pretty clear pick even easier: Garnett is done, Ginboli is done, and Orlando's forwards are hurting. It was looking like Lakers-Cavs before this, and now, it's obvious. But the rest of the bracket will be fun. And I'm not sure who wins.
EAST PLAYOFFS
1. Cleveland vs. 8. Detroit
Hard to believe the Pistons have slipped this much, but they have. Maybe not having Iverson helps them. They won't get close, but they have to have some pride left.
CAVS in 6
4. Atlanta vs. 5. Miami
Atlanta's reward for improving and landing home court? A dangerous Miami team. Atlanta has been good and proved me right for believing they wouldn't slip this year, but Wade is too much. He's carried this team over bigger obstacles.
HEAT in 7
3. Orlando vs. 6. Philly
No one wants to watch this series. The Sixers haven't been that amazing in the past few weeks, but nobody challenged. Orlando is hurt but managed to avoid a team that could exploit that. Even if Thad Young comes back, I have little faith in the hometowners. Oh well. They're still learning.
MAGIC in 5
2. Boston vs. 7. Chicago
Boston is reeling from the loss of KG. Chicago has come on really strong. An upset would seem possible, except that Chicago doesn't have the big guys to exploit KG's absence. The Bulls are strong on the perimeter, but the Celtics are better and more experienced there. It might be close, but the defending champs have enough heart.
CELTICS in 6
second round
Cleveland vs. Miami
Wade really should get the chance to face LeBron, shouldn't he? I can see it. Too bad LeBron is a little better and has more help.
CAVS in 6
Boston vs. Orlando
I've debated whether or not Orlando is ready to be a contender. They have a chance with Boston and Philly struggling. I have to think Howard is going to dominate without KG, but what about everyone else? I can see Orlando doing it, but I can also see them falling apart. I like the Celts' moxie.
CELTICS in 7
conf finals
Cleveland vs. Boston
Sadly, the grit of the champs ends here. Even if Boston had a healthy KG, they'd be in trouble. They could use James Posey right now, too. They have no way to hold LeBron all series and they barely did it last year with a full roster. Meanwhile, Cleveland has grown a lot.
CAVS in 5
WEST PLAYOFFS
1. Los Angeles vs. 8. Utah
Utah was supposed to be one of the teams that could challenge the Lakers, but they've fallen apart. They still seem like a tough matchup, and could push the Lakers harder than they would expect in the first round, but there's a reason why they didn't win 50.
LAKERS in 6
4. Portland vs. 5. Houston
I'm distraught. These are two of the best teams in the west and neither of them can go to the conference finals.... unless they beat the Lakers. Some think the Blazers could do that if everything falls into place, but they have to get past the Rockets first. I like Houston just for the desperation/ experience factor. They have to win it, don't they? Portland is young, but with the way they played the last month, I can see them winning this and winning it easy. I will take Houston shakily.
ROCKETS in 7
3. San Antonio vs. 6. Dallas
The bottom half of the Western bracket is really unpredictable. The Spurs seemed like the second best team in the conference and the only guys who could even think of taking on the Lakers. But then Manu was declared out for good, and they've uncharacteristically struggled down the stretch. Dallas has been okay but not great all season. I still think the Spurs have one more stand in them.
SPURS in 7
2. Denver vs. 7. New Orleans
I did not see Denver improving this year, much less getting the # 2 seed. They've done great, but have a lot to prove in the playoffs. They got a rough matchup with the Hornets, who might just be the most dangerous low seed. They've had injuries, but it looks like Peja and Chandler will at least be in the lineup. That scares me more than anything the Nuggs can do.
HORNETS in 7
second round
Lakers vs. Rockets
If the Blazers don't make it, the Lakers will cruise. Even if they did, the Lakers should win. the Rockets have no answer.
LAKERS in 5
Spurs vs. Hornets
The Hornets impressed many last year by taking the Spurs to 7 games. This year, they are hurt, but so are the Spurs. If the Mavs and Hornets win, well, we know the Hornets killed them last year. I think the Hornets can do it again if healthy.
HORNETS in 7
conf finals
Lakers vs. Hornets
I really don't know who is going to face the Lakers in the conference finals. It could be any of those 4 teams - Spurs, Nuggets, Mavs, or Hornets. I would say Spurs if they were healthy, but they're not. The Hornets have the most potential. It doesn't matter, though. None of them are taking the Lakers past 6 games.
LAKERS in 5
THE 2009 NBA FINALS
In a rough season for the league, with teams failing economically and tickets available, one dream matchup is almost certainly going to take place: LeBron-Kobe. Yes, there are many more players involved, but this is a superstar marquee battle that everyone craves. Kobe has more talent surrounding him and more size. LeBron has a better defense and some guards that could hurt LA. Cleveland will hurt people by going small with LeBron at a power spot, but the Lakers might be able to counter with Lamar Odom. If the Lakers want to go big, they may break out Odom, Bynum, and Gasol at the same time. They also have a nice perimeter defender specialist in Trevor Ariza. The Cavs can shoot, though, and they have been great at home, which they will have.
I've debated the outcome of this series many times, and I will do so again in the next month. Right now, I give a small edge to the Lakers, given that they have Bynum back and a little more experience. But I'll be rooting for the Cavs. Cleveland has suffered enough. Maybe my kiss of death will work. Last playoffs I really thought it would be Suns-Pistons.... uggggggggghhh.
Lakers in 6.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
AWARDS 09
Awards for the end of the season:
MVP
1. LeBron James
2. Dwyane Wade
3. Kobe Bryant
No one else is really close to these three. LeBron wins because he has taken a mediocre squad to 65 plus wins. Sure, his stats are redic, but he's also claimed the title of best player. Wade is second for getting a crummy team to the playoffs by himself. You can argue that Kobe is the top dog still, if not the best man on the best team.... but Kobe has the most talent surrounding him, and his main task is just to score. Wade and LB have to do EVERYTHING for their teams.
DEFENSE
1. Dwight Howard
2. Shane Battier
3. D Wade
Howard is an easy choice. He dominates the paint and glass. Note that Wade is coming on here.
ROOKIE
1. Derrick Rose
2. O.J. Mayo
3. Russell Westbrook
4. Brook Lopez
5. Eric Gordon
This is a very solid rookie class. I predicted Mayo could win it because he would have the best chance of averaging nearly 20 a game. Well, he almost did that, but Rose has been spectacular. He scored more than I thought, and he handled the starting job well. Despite a lot of early turmoil in Chicago, they are going to the playoffs. That's worth a lot. Mayo and Westbrook did great for their teams, and Lopez may be a franchise center. Gordon, Marc Gasol, D.J. Augustin, Kevin Love, and Michael Beasley also put up some good numbers, and Rudy Fernandez and Mario Chalmers are getting minutes for playoff teams. The only maybe disappointment for rookies is Greg Oden, but he's had to deal with injuries and high expectations. He's still a valuable part of a Portland team that won 50 games.
COACH
1. Mike Brown, CLE
2. Stan Van Gundy, ORL
3. Nate McMillan, POR
4. George Karl, DEN
5. Rick Adelman, HOU
Brown gets credit for getting LeBron to play defense, while figuring out a way to use him on offense to carry a mediocre unit. He has an undersized back court and two old guys down low, but this team still led the league in points allowed. I like what Van Gundy has done in Orlando, building an up-tempo game around Howard. McMillan won 50 games quicker than I thought he would. Karl was very impressive in making Denver better despite losing Marcus Camby for nothing. Adelman has surived in Houston despite injuries, but needs a playoff win to get noticed.
6th MAN
1. Jason Terry
2. Andrei Kirilenko
3. Lamar Odom
4. Anderson Varejao
Terry wins big as a sub who averaged nearly 20 a game. He also made the Jason Kidd deal look better, as he fits well next to the real point. Kirilenko showed some life with the second unit. Odom might have won this if Andrew Bynum didn't get hurt, making him a starter. Varejao started a lot of games for Cleveland, too, but has really been key to their defense.
MOST IMPROVED
1. Jameer Nelson
2. Danny Granger
3. Nate Robinson
4. Ramon Sessions
5. Wilson Chandler
Nelson wins, despite missing a large chunk of the season. I wasn't sure if he was a starter or should come off the bench, and Orlando was rated very low at point guard, but he worked his way into the all-star game. Granger went from solid player to all-star. Robinson and Chandler thrived in the Knicks' new system, changing them from afterthoughts to key cornerstones. Sessions inexplicably had a hard time getting minutes in Milwaukee before he showed he could be a capable starter.
ALL NBA: LeBron, D Howard, Wade, Kobe, Chris Paul
2ND: Garnett, Duncan, Nowitzki, Pierce, B Roy
3RD: Ming, Billups, Carmelo, T Parker, Bosh
ALL ROOKIE: Rose, B Lopez, Westbrook, Mayo, Gordon
R 2ND: Love, M Gasol, Beasley, Augustin, Chalmers
HM: Fernandez, J Thompson, Oden, C Lee
ALL DEF: D Howard, Garnett, Battier, Wade, Rondo
D 2ND: Varejao, LeBron, Duncan, Artest, C Paul
MVP
1. LeBron James
2. Dwyane Wade
3. Kobe Bryant
No one else is really close to these three. LeBron wins because he has taken a mediocre squad to 65 plus wins. Sure, his stats are redic, but he's also claimed the title of best player. Wade is second for getting a crummy team to the playoffs by himself. You can argue that Kobe is the top dog still, if not the best man on the best team.... but Kobe has the most talent surrounding him, and his main task is just to score. Wade and LB have to do EVERYTHING for their teams.
DEFENSE
1. Dwight Howard
2. Shane Battier
3. D Wade
Howard is an easy choice. He dominates the paint and glass. Note that Wade is coming on here.
ROOKIE
1. Derrick Rose
2. O.J. Mayo
3. Russell Westbrook
4. Brook Lopez
5. Eric Gordon
This is a very solid rookie class. I predicted Mayo could win it because he would have the best chance of averaging nearly 20 a game. Well, he almost did that, but Rose has been spectacular. He scored more than I thought, and he handled the starting job well. Despite a lot of early turmoil in Chicago, they are going to the playoffs. That's worth a lot. Mayo and Westbrook did great for their teams, and Lopez may be a franchise center. Gordon, Marc Gasol, D.J. Augustin, Kevin Love, and Michael Beasley also put up some good numbers, and Rudy Fernandez and Mario Chalmers are getting minutes for playoff teams. The only maybe disappointment for rookies is Greg Oden, but he's had to deal with injuries and high expectations. He's still a valuable part of a Portland team that won 50 games.
COACH
1. Mike Brown, CLE
2. Stan Van Gundy, ORL
3. Nate McMillan, POR
4. George Karl, DEN
5. Rick Adelman, HOU
Brown gets credit for getting LeBron to play defense, while figuring out a way to use him on offense to carry a mediocre unit. He has an undersized back court and two old guys down low, but this team still led the league in points allowed. I like what Van Gundy has done in Orlando, building an up-tempo game around Howard. McMillan won 50 games quicker than I thought he would. Karl was very impressive in making Denver better despite losing Marcus Camby for nothing. Adelman has surived in Houston despite injuries, but needs a playoff win to get noticed.
6th MAN
1. Jason Terry
2. Andrei Kirilenko
3. Lamar Odom
4. Anderson Varejao
Terry wins big as a sub who averaged nearly 20 a game. He also made the Jason Kidd deal look better, as he fits well next to the real point. Kirilenko showed some life with the second unit. Odom might have won this if Andrew Bynum didn't get hurt, making him a starter. Varejao started a lot of games for Cleveland, too, but has really been key to their defense.
MOST IMPROVED
1. Jameer Nelson
2. Danny Granger
3. Nate Robinson
4. Ramon Sessions
5. Wilson Chandler
Nelson wins, despite missing a large chunk of the season. I wasn't sure if he was a starter or should come off the bench, and Orlando was rated very low at point guard, but he worked his way into the all-star game. Granger went from solid player to all-star. Robinson and Chandler thrived in the Knicks' new system, changing them from afterthoughts to key cornerstones. Sessions inexplicably had a hard time getting minutes in Milwaukee before he showed he could be a capable starter.
ALL NBA: LeBron, D Howard, Wade, Kobe, Chris Paul
2ND: Garnett, Duncan, Nowitzki, Pierce, B Roy
3RD: Ming, Billups, Carmelo, T Parker, Bosh
ALL ROOKIE: Rose, B Lopez, Westbrook, Mayo, Gordon
R 2ND: Love, M Gasol, Beasley, Augustin, Chalmers
HM: Fernandez, J Thompson, Oden, C Lee
ALL DEF: D Howard, Garnett, Battier, Wade, Rondo
D 2ND: Varejao, LeBron, Duncan, Artest, C Paul
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
brackets 09
In a saddened state for the pro game, the college game remains strong, because you can't pay the players.... right?
[insert early 90's UNLV joke]
I haven't paid much attention this year, so I am not entering any real (i.e. paid) bracket pools. Not that I ever did.... cough.... but I'm not this year because I didn't study enough, and when I did recently, I found that I liked zero teams to win it all.
That's right, zero.
Usually, there a few teams that feel good, or at least one or two obvious favorites, even if you know they'll probably fail. This year, I have an overwhelming sense of meh about all the big teams. In my previous March Madness columns, I've listed a bunch of rules for eliminating teams. They've been pretty good for me over the years. Eventually, though, the process of elimination only goes so far and you have to pick teams you actually like. This year, I really don't like anyone.
UNC and UConn are big name picks, but they both have key people missing and I wonder about their depth. Pitt always falls apart in the tourney because they don't have shooting. Duke relies too much on shooting and doesn't have enough inside help, which has hurt them for the past 4 years. Michigan State is unimpressive. Kansas and Memphis did surprisingly well considering all the people they lost, but it's hard to make big runs twice with that many changes. Louisville is playing well, but I didn't really hear much about them during the season until they suddenly won the Big East tourney and got a # 1 seed. I watched them to get a view on draft prospect Earl Clark, and nothing really stood out. Oklahoma is intriguing, although I hate to go with a team led by underclassmen, although it doesn't really matter anymore. But they seem too obvious? Maybe?
Those are the top 9 teams in the country, and I have problems with all of them. Someone has to win, but I don't know who. There are some teams in the next range whom I like for upsets - Villanova, Washington, Wake Forest, Arizona State, Missouri, maybe UCLA. I don't like Gonzaga, despite their record. I also think that one of the many Big East teams that isn't getting hype - Nova, Marquette, West Virginia - will go farther than some of the others, like in '96.
My instinctive final four was Washington, Louisville, UNC, and Villanova. Other times, I went with all four # 1 seeds (never would've before last year, but the barrier has been broken). Oklahoma is tempting, but UNC has always been dependable to at least make it to the final four. My trouble bracket this year is Louisville's - I don't feel good about them, Michigan State, or Kansas. Wake Forest could pull it off but they could lose early too.
As for the finals? UNC-Lousiville or UNC-UConn will be popular choices. I said UNC over UW. But I don't trust anyone.
[insert early 90's UNLV joke]
I haven't paid much attention this year, so I am not entering any real (i.e. paid) bracket pools. Not that I ever did.... cough.... but I'm not this year because I didn't study enough, and when I did recently, I found that I liked zero teams to win it all.
That's right, zero.
Usually, there a few teams that feel good, or at least one or two obvious favorites, even if you know they'll probably fail. This year, I have an overwhelming sense of meh about all the big teams. In my previous March Madness columns, I've listed a bunch of rules for eliminating teams. They've been pretty good for me over the years. Eventually, though, the process of elimination only goes so far and you have to pick teams you actually like. This year, I really don't like anyone.
UNC and UConn are big name picks, but they both have key people missing and I wonder about their depth. Pitt always falls apart in the tourney because they don't have shooting. Duke relies too much on shooting and doesn't have enough inside help, which has hurt them for the past 4 years. Michigan State is unimpressive. Kansas and Memphis did surprisingly well considering all the people they lost, but it's hard to make big runs twice with that many changes. Louisville is playing well, but I didn't really hear much about them during the season until they suddenly won the Big East tourney and got a # 1 seed. I watched them to get a view on draft prospect Earl Clark, and nothing really stood out. Oklahoma is intriguing, although I hate to go with a team led by underclassmen, although it doesn't really matter anymore. But they seem too obvious? Maybe?
Those are the top 9 teams in the country, and I have problems with all of them. Someone has to win, but I don't know who. There are some teams in the next range whom I like for upsets - Villanova, Washington, Wake Forest, Arizona State, Missouri, maybe UCLA. I don't like Gonzaga, despite their record. I also think that one of the many Big East teams that isn't getting hype - Nova, Marquette, West Virginia - will go farther than some of the others, like in '96.
My instinctive final four was Washington, Louisville, UNC, and Villanova. Other times, I went with all four # 1 seeds (never would've before last year, but the barrier has been broken). Oklahoma is tempting, but UNC has always been dependable to at least make it to the final four. My trouble bracket this year is Louisville's - I don't feel good about them, Michigan State, or Kansas. Wake Forest could pull it off but they could lose early too.
As for the finals? UNC-Lousiville or UNC-UConn will be popular choices. I said UNC over UW. But I don't trust anyone.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
suck.
I usually go through and post a lengthy review on what trades should have been made and what I think of the ones that were, but it's too depressing this year. No one wants to spend money. Teams passed up easy chances to get better just to save some bucks. Even the big spenders like Portland refused ridiculously one-sided deals in the name of cash.
I really do not like where this season is going. Maybe this is cosmic justice for pro sports, but I'd rather see people win and try to make it look like they care, and then complain later.
The Bulls did nice, I guess. They can probably claim the 8th spot in the east. At least the Hornets didn't horrendously dump Tyson Chandler for nothing (on a default), but there's still time this summer. Alas.
Seriously, it's impossible for me to use the trade machine and get excited about any possibility because I know none of these great trades are realistic. There were a number of contenders that could have used just one more piece and didn't go for it. A few of them have since signed waived guys on the cheap, which is smart, but not likely causing a major shift. Mostly, though, every owner in the league, even the ones with a chance, has turned into Robert Sarver. This is NOT a good thing.
So I can't really write much of a trade posting this year, and it sucks.
I really do not like where this season is going. Maybe this is cosmic justice for pro sports, but I'd rather see people win and try to make it look like they care, and then complain later.
The Bulls did nice, I guess. They can probably claim the 8th spot in the east. At least the Hornets didn't horrendously dump Tyson Chandler for nothing (on a default), but there's still time this summer. Alas.
Seriously, it's impossible for me to use the trade machine and get excited about any possibility because I know none of these great trades are realistic. There were a number of contenders that could have used just one more piece and didn't go for it. A few of them have since signed waived guys on the cheap, which is smart, but not likely causing a major shift. Mostly, though, every owner in the league, even the ones with a chance, has turned into Robert Sarver. This is NOT a good thing.
So I can't really write much of a trade posting this year, and it sucks.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
all star picks 09
The starters were announced, and somehow, Tracy McGrady and Yi disappeared. But that's good. I don't have any major objections. I carefully went through and there weren't any starters I wouldn't have picked at all. Iverson is a little questionable, but he's the best bet on a Pistons team that ought to have someone. I can't say no to him.
My west starters: Kobe, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Duncan, Nowitzki
Bench: Yao, Amare, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Melo, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash
Chauncey Billups and David West were kinda tough omissions. In fact, I could change my mind on Nash (not that great this year, but I feel for him) over Billups. If Melo can't play, they should ensure that Billups makes it in. Al Jefferson and Kevin Durant have great numbers, and would be easy picks in the east, but their teams are too bad.
My east starters: Garnett, LeBron, Dwight Howard, Devin Harris, Wade
Bench: Danny Granger, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh, Iverson, Joe Johnson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis
I hated putting in Carter and Lewis, but I couldn't find anyone better. There are no big guys who really deserve it. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler are doing good, but they are hard to differentiate, and the Wizards are terrible. Al Harrington and David Lee put up surprisingly good numbers, but the Knicks and their system may inflate them. Michael Redd, Ben Gordon, Ray Allen.... meh... decent scorers but that's all. I would like to see Derrick Rose, but he just doesn't have enough yet. This is not an inspiring team outside the top eight or nine guys.
Not as important, but always fascinating to me, is the rookie - sophomore challenge. I don't know how to grade sophomores so easily, but rookies are interesting. There are some good stories this year.
ROOKIES - starters - Derrick Rose, O. J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, Michael Beasley, Brook Lopez
Bench - D. J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love
almost - Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jason Thompson
SOPHS - starters - Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Jeff Green, Rodney Stuckey, Al Thornton
Bench - Thad Young, Spencer Hawes, Wilson Chandler, Daequan Cook, Mike Conley
almost - Yi, Marco Bellinelli
My west starters: Kobe, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Duncan, Nowitzki
Bench: Yao, Amare, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Melo, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash
Chauncey Billups and David West were kinda tough omissions. In fact, I could change my mind on Nash (not that great this year, but I feel for him) over Billups. If Melo can't play, they should ensure that Billups makes it in. Al Jefferson and Kevin Durant have great numbers, and would be easy picks in the east, but their teams are too bad.
My east starters: Garnett, LeBron, Dwight Howard, Devin Harris, Wade
Bench: Danny Granger, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh, Iverson, Joe Johnson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis
I hated putting in Carter and Lewis, but I couldn't find anyone better. There are no big guys who really deserve it. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler are doing good, but they are hard to differentiate, and the Wizards are terrible. Al Harrington and David Lee put up surprisingly good numbers, but the Knicks and their system may inflate them. Michael Redd, Ben Gordon, Ray Allen.... meh... decent scorers but that's all. I would like to see Derrick Rose, but he just doesn't have enough yet. This is not an inspiring team outside the top eight or nine guys.
Not as important, but always fascinating to me, is the rookie - sophomore challenge. I don't know how to grade sophomores so easily, but rookies are interesting. There are some good stories this year.
ROOKIES - starters - Derrick Rose, O. J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, Michael Beasley, Brook Lopez
Bench - D. J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love
almost - Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jason Thompson
SOPHS - starters - Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Jeff Green, Rodney Stuckey, Al Thornton
Bench - Thad Young, Spencer Hawes, Wilson Chandler, Daequan Cook, Mike Conley
almost - Yi, Marco Bellinelli
Monday, December 29, 2008
holiday revue
As the holidays continue, I discovered that I had not wrote anything in a while, despite some juicy trades and the disappointing start of the Sixers. I don't like to really get into the season until January, or at least, in with my usual super intensity, but several things have already been determined:
1. The Celtics and Lakers will be awesome again.
2. The Cavs are excellent. But LeBron is making everyone in Cleveland nervous... or is he?
3. Much like last year, there are 9 good teams in the West and one of them will be left out. Then there are 6 who are young and building.... and have no shot.
4. Knick fans are more alive than they've been in years.
Let's go through the big changes. I'm disappointed in the Sixers, obviously, but I really hated to see Coach Mo go. He's classy and he got them to play a lot harder, and much better than expected, the last two years. I really thought they could give him more time. They look out of sync, but they're still in it, and I didn't think they would be super great this year. They need time to jell and to figure out where young guys fit in. They need another shooter on the outside, too. This was a quick pulling of the plug on a guy who got some votes for top coach last year.
As sad as I am to see of the great Sixers go, I'm pulling for another Leo, or at least a DiLeo. He might have some luck by changing things. The big problem is offense. I figured Brand and Iggy would both be able to get 20 a game, as they had been before, but no one is above 16 right now. Last year, I thought they really needed a post scorer / big man shooter to anchor that run-heavy offense, and Brand seemed to fit perfectly, but now it doesn't always look that way. I suppose they were best at being scrappy and going with a small offense with Thad at PF.... but then, where would that leave them in the long run? They were better than I thought they'd be last year, but I didn't see a terrific future without that big man. Now it's hard to tell where exactly they should be going.
Thankfully, they're not out of it, and there are only really 4 teams to be sure playoff faves in the East, although I do like Atlanta (feeling a little vindicated after everyone else said the Hawks would slip). But still, there's tons of room for them to get in without anyone looking great in the last few spots. I'm keeping my hopes up. Thad came out strong, which was good. Speights has shown some offense in a limited amount of time. They really, really need outside shooting. I don't wish the Korver trade reversed, but they do need to find a wing or guard who can shoot like that.
As for trades, the Knicks' revamping shouldn't have been surprising, but after they started well, it was a little odd to see them give up on that so quick. But they saw a way to get better for the future, and in the short term, Al Harrington fits their system nicely. They're really hoping for good draft picks and free agents in the coming years. Which might happen now....
On the other side of the country, the Clips haven't shown much life. Fortunately, unlike the bad Clippers of yesterday, they do have some talent. Their starters look great on paper, but this team has no chemistry or depth. I continue to hope that they trade Kaman for some help and then dump Dunleavy or at least get him to play a more freewheeling style. Zandolph was surprisingly good in D'Antoni's fast system, and everyone else seems to be suited for a quick pace. This can still work, even if Baron Davis is pulling a GOB Bluth and telling everyone he made a horrible mistake.
And up north, Golden State continues to mystify with how many wings Nellie can acquire and then throw out on the floor. Or not. Anthony Morrow exploded and then vanished just as quick, Bellinelli finally showed up in a real game, and then Jamal Crawford arrived as another two guard who will shoot at any time. Meanwhile, there are no inside scorers or true points. Nice. Even if they can fit Crawford and Monta Ellis together when he comes back, how do they balance minutes? Maybe they'll realize it wasn't worth it to get Magette when they had all wings anyway, and they've since added more. Weird team.
The other puzzling trade was the Suns taking advantage of the Bobcats. Jason Richardson gives Phoenix a wing who can shoot and pick up some outside scoring, while the Bobcats, who seem to always need scorers, traded their best one for two role players... not to mention Jared Dudley, who always got minutes. I guess Charlotte wants to use more two-point-guard sets (though that may also be a way to showcase Felton while they shop him) and really wanted a post creator. But Diaw has to match his one great season to even come close to giving this trade value. Mr. Jordan, you can start paying attention any day now.
Meanwhile, Phoenix can play Richardson at the 2 or 3 and give the Suns' perimeter a rest. They also realized that instead of finding a normal backup for Nash, they should just make sure Grant Hill is on the court when he's off as the de facto ball handler. When they don't have Shaq, they might considering going small again with Amare and Matt Barnes up front.
I feel bad because Phoenix and Dallas started off with problems but look much better now, and I think they could be contenders, but they're going to have to fight just to get in. Then again, no one besides the Lakers has really stepped up in the west. San Antonio quietly integrated new players and survived a rough stretch of injuries, so maybe I shouldn't have counted them out. Still trying to get a read on Utah and Houston as they deal with typical injuries. New Orleans and Portland are still learning, but doing well enough to be in the top teams.
I still hold a spot in my heart for Iverson, so it's rough to see Denver thrive without him, especially since they haven't really replaced Camby.... while Al's scoring drops big in Detroit and they're not the favorites I thought they'd still be. Alas. I hope he hasn't totally killed his future plans.
More trades are coming for sure. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland stays pat or tries to get another shooter. They might want another big guy who can shoot, since they only have three post guys they really use, and two of them can't score. I think every team but the Celtics can think of a trade that might help them, so this could be a crazy time.
I like my picks so far, except for the Pistons. They could still pull it together, but Boston and Cleveland are the real deal in the east. LeBron is the easy MVP, although Dwyane Wade has come back so strong. O.J. Mayo is the only rookie averaging 20, and that's a rare number for rookies these days, so I can feel good. Derrick Rose has probably impressed me more, though, and if he gets the Bulls in the playoffs, he has to win it (because that team is chaotic). I am disappointed in the Wizards, who managed to weather injuries before. At least they're picking up young guys. I think my COY would be Lawrence Frank, because he's the one guy in charge of a team that's really ahead of where I thought they'd be, but Mike Brown, Stan Van Gundy, and Gregg Poppovich have been taking good teams and doing more with less, i.e. talent and injury problems. D'Antoni and Skiles can jump in if their teams make the playoffs.
ALL NBA so far: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Dwight Howard, Garnett
2ND: C Paul, B Roy, Nowitzki, Duncan, Bosh
ALL ROOK: Mayo, D Rose, Beasley, R Westbrook, Rudy Fernandez
2ND: M Gasol, DJ Augustin, Mario Chalmers, Brook Lopez, Oden
DEF: Dwight Howard
MIP: Devin Harris
6TH: Jason Terry
I will look over all stars and post my choices before the big day.
1. The Celtics and Lakers will be awesome again.
2. The Cavs are excellent. But LeBron is making everyone in Cleveland nervous... or is he?
3. Much like last year, there are 9 good teams in the West and one of them will be left out. Then there are 6 who are young and building.... and have no shot.
4. Knick fans are more alive than they've been in years.
Let's go through the big changes. I'm disappointed in the Sixers, obviously, but I really hated to see Coach Mo go. He's classy and he got them to play a lot harder, and much better than expected, the last two years. I really thought they could give him more time. They look out of sync, but they're still in it, and I didn't think they would be super great this year. They need time to jell and to figure out where young guys fit in. They need another shooter on the outside, too. This was a quick pulling of the plug on a guy who got some votes for top coach last year.
As sad as I am to see of the great Sixers go, I'm pulling for another Leo, or at least a DiLeo. He might have some luck by changing things. The big problem is offense. I figured Brand and Iggy would both be able to get 20 a game, as they had been before, but no one is above 16 right now. Last year, I thought they really needed a post scorer / big man shooter to anchor that run-heavy offense, and Brand seemed to fit perfectly, but now it doesn't always look that way. I suppose they were best at being scrappy and going with a small offense with Thad at PF.... but then, where would that leave them in the long run? They were better than I thought they'd be last year, but I didn't see a terrific future without that big man. Now it's hard to tell where exactly they should be going.
Thankfully, they're not out of it, and there are only really 4 teams to be sure playoff faves in the East, although I do like Atlanta (feeling a little vindicated after everyone else said the Hawks would slip). But still, there's tons of room for them to get in without anyone looking great in the last few spots. I'm keeping my hopes up. Thad came out strong, which was good. Speights has shown some offense in a limited amount of time. They really, really need outside shooting. I don't wish the Korver trade reversed, but they do need to find a wing or guard who can shoot like that.
As for trades, the Knicks' revamping shouldn't have been surprising, but after they started well, it was a little odd to see them give up on that so quick. But they saw a way to get better for the future, and in the short term, Al Harrington fits their system nicely. They're really hoping for good draft picks and free agents in the coming years. Which might happen now....
On the other side of the country, the Clips haven't shown much life. Fortunately, unlike the bad Clippers of yesterday, they do have some talent. Their starters look great on paper, but this team has no chemistry or depth. I continue to hope that they trade Kaman for some help and then dump Dunleavy or at least get him to play a more freewheeling style. Zandolph was surprisingly good in D'Antoni's fast system, and everyone else seems to be suited for a quick pace. This can still work, even if Baron Davis is pulling a GOB Bluth and telling everyone he made a horrible mistake.
And up north, Golden State continues to mystify with how many wings Nellie can acquire and then throw out on the floor. Or not. Anthony Morrow exploded and then vanished just as quick, Bellinelli finally showed up in a real game, and then Jamal Crawford arrived as another two guard who will shoot at any time. Meanwhile, there are no inside scorers or true points. Nice. Even if they can fit Crawford and Monta Ellis together when he comes back, how do they balance minutes? Maybe they'll realize it wasn't worth it to get Magette when they had all wings anyway, and they've since added more. Weird team.
The other puzzling trade was the Suns taking advantage of the Bobcats. Jason Richardson gives Phoenix a wing who can shoot and pick up some outside scoring, while the Bobcats, who seem to always need scorers, traded their best one for two role players... not to mention Jared Dudley, who always got minutes. I guess Charlotte wants to use more two-point-guard sets (though that may also be a way to showcase Felton while they shop him) and really wanted a post creator. But Diaw has to match his one great season to even come close to giving this trade value. Mr. Jordan, you can start paying attention any day now.
Meanwhile, Phoenix can play Richardson at the 2 or 3 and give the Suns' perimeter a rest. They also realized that instead of finding a normal backup for Nash, they should just make sure Grant Hill is on the court when he's off as the de facto ball handler. When they don't have Shaq, they might considering going small again with Amare and Matt Barnes up front.
I feel bad because Phoenix and Dallas started off with problems but look much better now, and I think they could be contenders, but they're going to have to fight just to get in. Then again, no one besides the Lakers has really stepped up in the west. San Antonio quietly integrated new players and survived a rough stretch of injuries, so maybe I shouldn't have counted them out. Still trying to get a read on Utah and Houston as they deal with typical injuries. New Orleans and Portland are still learning, but doing well enough to be in the top teams.
I still hold a spot in my heart for Iverson, so it's rough to see Denver thrive without him, especially since they haven't really replaced Camby.... while Al's scoring drops big in Detroit and they're not the favorites I thought they'd still be. Alas. I hope he hasn't totally killed his future plans.
More trades are coming for sure. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland stays pat or tries to get another shooter. They might want another big guy who can shoot, since they only have three post guys they really use, and two of them can't score. I think every team but the Celtics can think of a trade that might help them, so this could be a crazy time.
I like my picks so far, except for the Pistons. They could still pull it together, but Boston and Cleveland are the real deal in the east. LeBron is the easy MVP, although Dwyane Wade has come back so strong. O.J. Mayo is the only rookie averaging 20, and that's a rare number for rookies these days, so I can feel good. Derrick Rose has probably impressed me more, though, and if he gets the Bulls in the playoffs, he has to win it (because that team is chaotic). I am disappointed in the Wizards, who managed to weather injuries before. At least they're picking up young guys. I think my COY would be Lawrence Frank, because he's the one guy in charge of a team that's really ahead of where I thought they'd be, but Mike Brown, Stan Van Gundy, and Gregg Poppovich have been taking good teams and doing more with less, i.e. talent and injury problems. D'Antoni and Skiles can jump in if their teams make the playoffs.
ALL NBA so far: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Dwight Howard, Garnett
2ND: C Paul, B Roy, Nowitzki, Duncan, Bosh
ALL ROOK: Mayo, D Rose, Beasley, R Westbrook, Rudy Fernandez
2ND: M Gasol, DJ Augustin, Mario Chalmers, Brook Lopez, Oden
DEF: Dwight Howard
MIP: Devin Harris
6TH: Jason Terry
I will look over all stars and post my choices before the big day.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Leo's Big NBA Preview 08-09, Full Edition
Last time I gave win totals, finals, and major awards. Here's more in depth capsules of each team.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.
As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.
2. Utah Jazz
Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.
3. New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.
4. Houston Rockets
Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.
5. San Antonio Spurs
For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.
6. Phoenix Suns
I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.
7. Dallas Mavericks
I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.
9. Denver Nuggets
After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.
10. Los Angeles Clippers
After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.
11. Golden State Warriors
I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.
12. Sacramento Kings
The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.
14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces
Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.
1. Boston Celtics
The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....
2. Detroit Pistons
I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.
4. Orlando Magic
They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.
6. Toronto Raptors
From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.
7. Atlanta Hawks
It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.
8. Washington Wizards
Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.
9. Chicago Bulls
Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.
10. Indiana Pacers
This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.
11. Charlotte Bobcats
Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.
12. Miami Heat
I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.
13. Milwaukee Bucks
I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.
14. New York Knicks
The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.
15. New Jersey Nets
They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN
LAL over HOU
NO over UT
LAL over NO
BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL
BOS over ORL
DET over CLE
DET over BOS
FINALS: LAL over DET in 7
Wait, I already said that. Oh well.
Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:
ALL NBA
LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe
SECOND
Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade
THIRD
Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson
ALL ROOKIE
Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden
SECOND
Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts
ALL DEF
Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant
EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton
6th Man: Andre Kirilenko
Most Improved: Ramon Sessions
EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.
As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?
As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.
As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.
2. Utah Jazz
Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.
3. New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.
4. Houston Rockets
Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.
5. San Antonio Spurs
For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.
6. Phoenix Suns
I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.
7. Dallas Mavericks
I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.
9. Denver Nuggets
After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.
10. Los Angeles Clippers
After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.
11. Golden State Warriors
I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.
12. Sacramento Kings
The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.
14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces
Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.
1. Boston Celtics
The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....
2. Detroit Pistons
I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.
4. Orlando Magic
They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.
6. Toronto Raptors
From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.
7. Atlanta Hawks
It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.
8. Washington Wizards
Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.
9. Chicago Bulls
Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.
10. Indiana Pacers
This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.
11. Charlotte Bobcats
Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.
12. Miami Heat
I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.
13. Milwaukee Bucks
I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.
14. New York Knicks
The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.
15. New Jersey Nets
They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN
LAL over HOU
NO over UT
LAL over NO
BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL
BOS over ORL
DET over CLE
DET over BOS
FINALS: LAL over DET in 7
Wait, I already said that. Oh well.
Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:
ALL NBA
LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe
SECOND
Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade
THIRD
Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson
ALL ROOKIE
Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden
SECOND
Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts
ALL DEF
Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul
ALL STAR TEAMS
WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant
EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton
6th Man: Andre Kirilenko
Most Improved: Ramon Sessions
EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.
As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?
As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.
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