Wednesday, March 18, 2009

brackets 09

In a saddened state for the pro game, the college game remains strong, because you can't pay the players.... right?

[insert early 90's UNLV joke]

I haven't paid much attention this year, so I am not entering any real (i.e. paid) bracket pools. Not that I ever did.... cough.... but I'm not this year because I didn't study enough, and when I did recently, I found that I liked zero teams to win it all.

That's right, zero.

Usually, there a few teams that feel good, or at least one or two obvious favorites, even if you know they'll probably fail. This year, I have an overwhelming sense of meh about all the big teams. In my previous March Madness columns, I've listed a bunch of rules for eliminating teams. They've been pretty good for me over the years. Eventually, though, the process of elimination only goes so far and you have to pick teams you actually like. This year, I really don't like anyone.

UNC and UConn are big name picks, but they both have key people missing and I wonder about their depth. Pitt always falls apart in the tourney because they don't have shooting. Duke relies too much on shooting and doesn't have enough inside help, which has hurt them for the past 4 years. Michigan State is unimpressive. Kansas and Memphis did surprisingly well considering all the people they lost, but it's hard to make big runs twice with that many changes. Louisville is playing well, but I didn't really hear much about them during the season until they suddenly won the Big East tourney and got a # 1 seed. I watched them to get a view on draft prospect Earl Clark, and nothing really stood out. Oklahoma is intriguing, although I hate to go with a team led by underclassmen, although it doesn't really matter anymore. But they seem too obvious? Maybe?

Those are the top 9 teams in the country, and I have problems with all of them. Someone has to win, but I don't know who. There are some teams in the next range whom I like for upsets - Villanova, Washington, Wake Forest, Arizona State, Missouri, maybe UCLA. I don't like Gonzaga, despite their record. I also think that one of the many Big East teams that isn't getting hype - Nova, Marquette, West Virginia - will go farther than some of the others, like in '96.

My instinctive final four was Washington, Louisville, UNC, and Villanova. Other times, I went with all four # 1 seeds (never would've before last year, but the barrier has been broken). Oklahoma is tempting, but UNC has always been dependable to at least make it to the final four. My trouble bracket this year is Louisville's - I don't feel good about them, Michigan State, or Kansas. Wake Forest could pull it off but they could lose early too.

As for the finals? UNC-Lousiville or UNC-UConn will be popular choices. I said UNC over UW. But I don't trust anyone.

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