playoff update

I really didn't know how these playoffs would go down, and so far, they've been just as unpredictable - in parts. I did not know what to make of the west's bottom half, and I was way off. Nothing much has changed. My only new predicition is that the Nuggets will outlast the Mavericks in 7. They're playing great. They will not, however, be able to challenge the Lakers, who will win in 5. In the east, not much has changed. Even though the Hawks won, I doubt they'll be able to steal more than one game from the Cavs. The rest is as I said it.

Playoff Predictions oh nine

The playoffs just got interesting and less interesting. There are a ton of ways for this all to play out, but it the end, it won't matter, because the finals are set: Lakers - Cavs. Only a few catastrophic injuries could stop this from happening. The injuries that have already happened have made a pretty clear pick even easier: Garnett is done, Ginboli is done, and Orlando's forwards are hurting. It was looking like Lakers-Cavs before this, and now, it's obvious. But the rest of the bracket will be fun. And I'm not sure who wins.

EAST PLAYOFFS
1. Cleveland vs. 8. Detroit

Hard to believe the Pistons have slipped this much, but they have. Maybe not having Iverson helps them. They won't get close, but they have to have some pride left.

CAVS in 6

4. Atlanta vs. 5. Miami

Atlanta's reward for improving and landing home court? A dangerous Miami team. Atlanta has been good and proved me right for believing they wouldn't slip this year, but Wade is too much. He's carried this team over bigger obstacles.

HEAT in 7

3. Orlando vs. 6. Philly

No one wants to watch this series. The Sixers haven't been that amazing in the past few weeks, but nobody challenged. Orlando is hurt but managed to avoid a team that could exploit that. Even if Thad Young comes back, I have little faith in the hometowners. Oh well. They're still learning.

MAGIC in 5

2. Boston vs. 7. Chicago

Boston is reeling from the loss of KG. Chicago has come on really strong. An upset would seem possible, except that Chicago doesn't have the big guys to exploit KG's absence. The Bulls are strong on the perimeter, but the Celtics are better and more experienced there. It might be close, but the defending champs have enough heart.

CELTICS in 6

second round

Cleveland vs. Miami

Wade really should get the chance to face LeBron, shouldn't he? I can see it. Too bad LeBron is a little better and has more help.

CAVS in 6

Boston vs. Orlando

I've debated whether or not Orlando is ready to be a contender. They have a chance with Boston and Philly struggling. I have to think Howard is going to dominate without KG, but what about everyone else? I can see Orlando doing it, but I can also see them falling apart. I like the Celts' moxie.

CELTICS in 7

conf finals

Cleveland vs. Boston

Sadly, the grit of the champs ends here. Even if Boston had a healthy KG, they'd be in trouble. They could use James Posey right now, too. They have no way to hold LeBron all series and they barely did it last year with a full roster. Meanwhile, Cleveland has grown a lot.

CAVS in 5

WEST PLAYOFFS
1. Los Angeles vs. 8. Utah

Utah was supposed to be one of the teams that could challenge the Lakers, but they've fallen apart. They still seem like a tough matchup, and could push the Lakers harder than they would expect in the first round, but there's a reason why they didn't win 50.

LAKERS in 6

4. Portland vs. 5. Houston

I'm distraught. These are two of the best teams in the west and neither of them can go to the conference finals.... unless they beat the Lakers. Some think the Blazers could do that if everything falls into place, but they have to get past the Rockets first. I like Houston just for the desperation/ experience factor. They have to win it, don't they? Portland is young, but with the way they played the last month, I can see them winning this and winning it easy. I will take Houston shakily.

ROCKETS in 7

3. San Antonio vs. 6. Dallas

The bottom half of the Western bracket is really unpredictable. The Spurs seemed like the second best team in the conference and the only guys who could even think of taking on the Lakers. But then Manu was declared out for good, and they've uncharacteristically struggled down the stretch. Dallas has been okay but not great all season. I still think the Spurs have one more stand in them.

SPURS in 7

2. Denver vs. 7. New Orleans

I did not see Denver improving this year, much less getting the # 2 seed. They've done great, but have a lot to prove in the playoffs. They got a rough matchup with the Hornets, who might just be the most dangerous low seed. They've had injuries, but it looks like Peja and Chandler will at least be in the lineup. That scares me more than anything the Nuggs can do.

HORNETS in 7

second round

Lakers vs. Rockets

If the Blazers don't make it, the Lakers will cruise. Even if they did, the Lakers should win. the Rockets have no answer.

LAKERS in 5

Spurs vs. Hornets

The Hornets impressed many last year by taking the Spurs to 7 games. This year, they are hurt, but so are the Spurs. If the Mavs and Hornets win, well, we know the Hornets killed them last year. I think the Hornets can do it again if healthy.

HORNETS in 7

conf finals

Lakers vs. Hornets

I really don't know who is going to face the Lakers in the conference finals. It could be any of those 4 teams - Spurs, Nuggets, Mavs, or Hornets. I would say Spurs if they were healthy, but they're not. The Hornets have the most potential. It doesn't matter, though. None of them are taking the Lakers past 6 games.

LAKERS in 5

THE 2009 NBA FINALS

In a rough season for the league, with teams failing economically and tickets available, one dream matchup is almost certainly going to take place: LeBron-Kobe. Yes, there are many more players involved, but this is a superstar marquee battle that everyone craves. Kobe has more talent surrounding him and more size. LeBron has a better defense and some guards that could hurt LA. Cleveland will hurt people by going small with LeBron at a power spot, but the Lakers might be able to counter with Lamar Odom. If the Lakers want to go big, they may break out Odom, Bynum, and Gasol at the same time. They also have a nice perimeter defender specialist in Trevor Ariza. The Cavs can shoot, though, and they have been great at home, which they will have.

I've debated the outcome of this series many times, and I will do so again in the next month. Right now, I give a small edge to the Lakers, given that they have Bynum back and a little more experience. But I'll be rooting for the Cavs. Cleveland has suffered enough. Maybe my kiss of death will work. Last playoffs I really thought it would be Suns-Pistons.... uggggggggghhh.

Lakers in 6.

AWARDS 09

Awards for the end of the season:

MVP
1. LeBron James
2. Dwyane Wade
3. Kobe Bryant
No one else is really close to these three. LeBron wins because he has taken a mediocre squad to 65 plus wins. Sure, his stats are redic, but he's also claimed the title of best player. Wade is second for getting a crummy team to the playoffs by himself. You can argue that Kobe is the top dog still, if not the best man on the best team.... but Kobe has the most talent surrounding him, and his main task is just to score. Wade and LB have to do EVERYTHING for their teams.

DEFENSE
1. Dwight Howard
2. Shane Battier
3. D Wade
Howard is an easy choice. He dominates the paint and glass. Note that Wade is coming on here.

ROOKIE
1. Derrick Rose
2. O.J. Mayo
3. Russell Westbrook
4. Brook Lopez
5. Eric Gordon

This is a very solid rookie class. I predicted Mayo could win it because he would have the best chance of averaging nearly 20 a game. Well, he almost did that, but Rose has been spectacular. He scored more than I thought, and he handled the starting job well. Despite a lot of early turmoil in Chicago, they are going to the playoffs. That's worth a lot. Mayo and Westbrook did great for their teams, and Lopez may be a franchise center. Gordon, Marc Gasol, D.J. Augustin, Kevin Love, and Michael Beasley also put up some good numbers, and Rudy Fernandez and Mario Chalmers are getting minutes for playoff teams. The only maybe disappointment for rookies is Greg Oden, but he's had to deal with injuries and high expectations. He's still a valuable part of a Portland team that won 50 games.

COACH
1. Mike Brown, CLE
2. Stan Van Gundy, ORL
3. Nate McMillan, POR
4. George Karl, DEN
5. Rick Adelman, HOU

Brown gets credit for getting LeBron to play defense, while figuring out a way to use him on offense to carry a mediocre unit. He has an undersized back court and two old guys down low, but this team still led the league in points allowed. I like what Van Gundy has done in Orlando, building an up-tempo game around Howard. McMillan won 50 games quicker than I thought he would. Karl was very impressive in making Denver better despite losing Marcus Camby for nothing. Adelman has surived in Houston despite injuries, but needs a playoff win to get noticed.

6th MAN
1. Jason Terry
2. Andrei Kirilenko
3. Lamar Odom
4. Anderson Varejao

Terry wins big as a sub who averaged nearly 20 a game. He also made the Jason Kidd deal look better, as he fits well next to the real point. Kirilenko showed some life with the second unit. Odom might have won this if Andrew Bynum didn't get hurt, making him a starter. Varejao started a lot of games for Cleveland, too, but has really been key to their defense.

MOST IMPROVED
1. Jameer Nelson
2. Danny Granger
3. Nate Robinson
4. Ramon Sessions
5. Wilson Chandler

Nelson wins, despite missing a large chunk of the season. I wasn't sure if he was a starter or should come off the bench, and Orlando was rated very low at point guard, but he worked his way into the all-star game. Granger went from solid player to all-star. Robinson and Chandler thrived in the Knicks' new system, changing them from afterthoughts to key cornerstones. Sessions inexplicably had a hard time getting minutes in Milwaukee before he showed he could be a capable starter.

ALL NBA: LeBron, D Howard, Wade, Kobe, Chris Paul

2ND: Garnett, Duncan, Nowitzki, Pierce, B Roy

3RD: Ming, Billups, Carmelo, T Parker, Bosh

ALL ROOKIE: Rose, B Lopez, Westbrook, Mayo, Gordon

R 2ND: Love, M Gasol, Beasley, Augustin, Chalmers

HM: Fernandez, J Thompson, Oden, C Lee

ALL DEF: D Howard, Garnett, Battier, Wade, Rondo

D 2ND: Varejao, LeBron, Duncan, Artest, C Paul

brackets 09

In a saddened state for the pro game, the college game remains strong, because you can't pay the players.... right?

[insert early 90's UNLV joke]

I haven't paid much attention this year, so I am not entering any real (i.e. paid) bracket pools. Not that I ever did.... cough.... but I'm not this year because I didn't study enough, and when I did recently, I found that I liked zero teams to win it all.

That's right, zero.

Usually, there a few teams that feel good, or at least one or two obvious favorites, even if you know they'll probably fail. This year, I have an overwhelming sense of meh about all the big teams. In my previous March Madness columns, I've listed a bunch of rules for eliminating teams. They've been pretty good for me over the years. Eventually, though, the process of elimination only goes so far and you have to pick teams you actually like. This year, I really don't like anyone.

UNC and UConn are big name picks, but they both have key people missing and I wonder about their depth. Pitt always falls apart in the tourney because they don't have shooting. Duke relies too much on shooting and doesn't have enough inside help, which has hurt them for the past 4 years. Michigan State is unimpressive. Kansas and Memphis did surprisingly well considering all the people they lost, but it's hard to make big runs twice with that many changes. Louisville is playing well, but I didn't really hear much about them during the season until they suddenly won the Big East tourney and got a # 1 seed. I watched them to get a view on draft prospect Earl Clark, and nothing really stood out. Oklahoma is intriguing, although I hate to go with a team led by underclassmen, although it doesn't really matter anymore. But they seem too obvious? Maybe?

Those are the top 9 teams in the country, and I have problems with all of them. Someone has to win, but I don't know who. There are some teams in the next range whom I like for upsets - Villanova, Washington, Wake Forest, Arizona State, Missouri, maybe UCLA. I don't like Gonzaga, despite their record. I also think that one of the many Big East teams that isn't getting hype - Nova, Marquette, West Virginia - will go farther than some of the others, like in '96.

My instinctive final four was Washington, Louisville, UNC, and Villanova. Other times, I went with all four # 1 seeds (never would've before last year, but the barrier has been broken). Oklahoma is tempting, but UNC has always been dependable to at least make it to the final four. My trouble bracket this year is Louisville's - I don't feel good about them, Michigan State, or Kansas. Wake Forest could pull it off but they could lose early too.

As for the finals? UNC-Lousiville or UNC-UConn will be popular choices. I said UNC over UW. But I don't trust anyone.

suck.

I usually go through and post a lengthy review on what trades should have been made and what I think of the ones that were, but it's too depressing this year. No one wants to spend money. Teams passed up easy chances to get better just to save some bucks. Even the big spenders like Portland refused ridiculously one-sided deals in the name of cash.

I really do not like where this season is going. Maybe this is cosmic justice for pro sports, but I'd rather see people win and try to make it look like they care, and then complain later.

The Bulls did nice, I guess. They can probably claim the 8th spot in the east. At least the Hornets didn't horrendously dump Tyson Chandler for nothing (on a default), but there's still time this summer. Alas.

Seriously, it's impossible for me to use the trade machine and get excited about any possibility because I know none of these great trades are realistic. There were a number of contenders that could have used just one more piece and didn't go for it. A few of them have since signed waived guys on the cheap, which is smart, but not likely causing a major shift. Mostly, though, every owner in the league, even the ones with a chance, has turned into Robert Sarver. This is NOT a good thing.

So I can't really write much of a trade posting this year, and it sucks.

all star picks 09

The starters were announced, and somehow, Tracy McGrady and Yi disappeared. But that's good. I don't have any major objections. I carefully went through and there weren't any starters I wouldn't have picked at all. Iverson is a little questionable, but he's the best bet on a Pistons team that ought to have someone. I can't say no to him.

My west starters: Kobe, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Duncan, Nowitzki

Bench: Yao, Amare, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Melo, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash

Chauncey Billups and David West were kinda tough omissions. In fact, I could change my mind on Nash (not that great this year, but I feel for him) over Billups. If Melo can't play, they should ensure that Billups makes it in. Al Jefferson and Kevin Durant have great numbers, and would be easy picks in the east, but their teams are too bad.

My east starters: Garnett, LeBron, Dwight Howard, Devin Harris, Wade

Bench: Danny Granger, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh, Iverson, Joe Johnson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis

I hated putting in Carter and Lewis, but I couldn't find anyone better. There are no big guys who really deserve it. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler are doing good, but they are hard to differentiate, and the Wizards are terrible. Al Harrington and David Lee put up surprisingly good numbers, but the Knicks and their system may inflate them. Michael Redd, Ben Gordon, Ray Allen.... meh... decent scorers but that's all. I would like to see Derrick Rose, but he just doesn't have enough yet. This is not an inspiring team outside the top eight or nine guys.

Not as important, but always fascinating to me, is the rookie - sophomore challenge. I don't know how to grade sophomores so easily, but rookies are interesting. There are some good stories this year.

ROOKIES - starters - Derrick Rose, O. J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, Michael Beasley, Brook Lopez

Bench - D. J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love

almost - Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jason Thompson

SOPHS - starters - Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Jeff Green, Rodney Stuckey, Al Thornton

Bench - Thad Young, Spencer Hawes, Wilson Chandler, Daequan Cook, Mike Conley

almost - Yi, Marco Bellinelli

holiday revue

As the holidays continue, I discovered that I had not wrote anything in a while, despite some juicy trades and the disappointing start of the Sixers. I don't like to really get into the season until January, or at least, in with my usual super intensity, but several things have already been determined:

1. The Celtics and Lakers will be awesome again.
2. The Cavs are excellent. But LeBron is making everyone in Cleveland nervous... or is he?
3. Much like last year, there are 9 good teams in the West and one of them will be left out. Then there are 6 who are young and building.... and have no shot.
4. Knick fans are more alive than they've been in years.

Let's go through the big changes. I'm disappointed in the Sixers, obviously, but I really hated to see Coach Mo go. He's classy and he got them to play a lot harder, and much better than expected, the last two years. I really thought they could give him more time. They look out of sync, but they're still in it, and I didn't think they would be super great this year. They need time to jell and to figure out where young guys fit in. They need another shooter on the outside, too. This was a quick pulling of the plug on a guy who got some votes for top coach last year.

As sad as I am to see of the great Sixers go, I'm pulling for another Leo, or at least a DiLeo. He might have some luck by changing things. The big problem is offense. I figured Brand and Iggy would both be able to get 20 a game, as they had been before, but no one is above 16 right now. Last year, I thought they really needed a post scorer / big man shooter to anchor that run-heavy offense, and Brand seemed to fit perfectly, but now it doesn't always look that way. I suppose they were best at being scrappy and going with a small offense with Thad at PF.... but then, where would that leave them in the long run? They were better than I thought they'd be last year, but I didn't see a terrific future without that big man. Now it's hard to tell where exactly they should be going.

Thankfully, they're not out of it, and there are only really 4 teams to be sure playoff faves in the East, although I do like Atlanta (feeling a little vindicated after everyone else said the Hawks would slip). But still, there's tons of room for them to get in without anyone looking great in the last few spots. I'm keeping my hopes up. Thad came out strong, which was good. Speights has shown some offense in a limited amount of time. They really, really need outside shooting. I don't wish the Korver trade reversed, but they do need to find a wing or guard who can shoot like that.

As for trades, the Knicks' revamping shouldn't have been surprising, but after they started well, it was a little odd to see them give up on that so quick. But they saw a way to get better for the future, and in the short term, Al Harrington fits their system nicely. They're really hoping for good draft picks and free agents in the coming years. Which might happen now....

On the other side of the country, the Clips haven't shown much life. Fortunately, unlike the bad Clippers of yesterday, they do have some talent. Their starters look great on paper, but this team has no chemistry or depth. I continue to hope that they trade Kaman for some help and then dump Dunleavy or at least get him to play a more freewheeling style. Zandolph was surprisingly good in D'Antoni's fast system, and everyone else seems to be suited for a quick pace. This can still work, even if Baron Davis is pulling a GOB Bluth and telling everyone he made a horrible mistake.

And up north, Golden State continues to mystify with how many wings Nellie can acquire and then throw out on the floor. Or not. Anthony Morrow exploded and then vanished just as quick, Bellinelli finally showed up in a real game, and then Jamal Crawford arrived as another two guard who will shoot at any time. Meanwhile, there are no inside scorers or true points. Nice. Even if they can fit Crawford and Monta Ellis together when he comes back, how do they balance minutes? Maybe they'll realize it wasn't worth it to get Magette when they had all wings anyway, and they've since added more. Weird team.

The other puzzling trade was the Suns taking advantage of the Bobcats. Jason Richardson gives Phoenix a wing who can shoot and pick up some outside scoring, while the Bobcats, who seem to always need scorers, traded their best one for two role players... not to mention Jared Dudley, who always got minutes. I guess Charlotte wants to use more two-point-guard sets (though that may also be a way to showcase Felton while they shop him) and really wanted a post creator. But Diaw has to match his one great season to even come close to giving this trade value. Mr. Jordan, you can start paying attention any day now.

Meanwhile, Phoenix can play Richardson at the 2 or 3 and give the Suns' perimeter a rest. They also realized that instead of finding a normal backup for Nash, they should just make sure Grant Hill is on the court when he's off as the de facto ball handler. When they don't have Shaq, they might considering going small again with Amare and Matt Barnes up front.

I feel bad because Phoenix and Dallas started off with problems but look much better now, and I think they could be contenders, but they're going to have to fight just to get in. Then again, no one besides the Lakers has really stepped up in the west. San Antonio quietly integrated new players and survived a rough stretch of injuries, so maybe I shouldn't have counted them out. Still trying to get a read on Utah and Houston as they deal with typical injuries. New Orleans and Portland are still learning, but doing well enough to be in the top teams.

I still hold a spot in my heart for Iverson, so it's rough to see Denver thrive without him, especially since they haven't really replaced Camby.... while Al's scoring drops big in Detroit and they're not the favorites I thought they'd still be. Alas. I hope he hasn't totally killed his future plans.

More trades are coming for sure. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland stays pat or tries to get another shooter. They might want another big guy who can shoot, since they only have three post guys they really use, and two of them can't score. I think every team but the Celtics can think of a trade that might help them, so this could be a crazy time.


I like my picks so far, except for the Pistons. They could still pull it together, but Boston and Cleveland are the real deal in the east. LeBron is the easy MVP, although Dwyane Wade has come back so strong. O.J. Mayo is the only rookie averaging 20, and that's a rare number for rookies these days, so I can feel good. Derrick Rose has probably impressed me more, though, and if he gets the Bulls in the playoffs, he has to win it (because that team is chaotic). I am disappointed in the Wizards, who managed to weather injuries before. At least they're picking up young guys. I think my COY would be Lawrence Frank, because he's the one guy in charge of a team that's really ahead of where I thought they'd be, but Mike Brown, Stan Van Gundy, and Gregg Poppovich have been taking good teams and doing more with less, i.e. talent and injury problems. D'Antoni and Skiles can jump in if their teams make the playoffs.

ALL NBA so far: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Dwight Howard, Garnett
2ND: C Paul, B Roy, Nowitzki, Duncan, Bosh

ALL ROOK: Mayo, D Rose, Beasley, R Westbrook, Rudy Fernandez
2ND: M Gasol, DJ Augustin, Mario Chalmers, Brook Lopez, Oden

DEF: Dwight Howard
MIP: Devin Harris
6TH: Jason Terry

I will look over all stars and post my choices before the big day.