Leo's 2011 NBA Preview: Recipe for Hate

Hate.

That's the word I keep thinking about in watching the league during this off season. I'm not just talking about LeBron's I Am The Most Important Person in The World special, the Heat hate, the continued erosion of the Sixers, or the ongoing Melo-drama. I mean, all of these are certainly part of it, but there's so much about the league EVERYWHERE that is bothering me. I'm disappointed in almost every team. This is an angry time of my basketball life. I'm as intrigued as ever to see what happens, but I'm pissed.

Yes, every team has a reason to be hated. Every team has done something to make me despise their existence. Every team has at least one thing I can complain about. Some teams made good moves, but there's no way to satisfy my internal flame. So I present a quick preview on every team, measured on my personal hate-o-meter, and also some less important things, like how many wins they'll have.

WEST

Los Angeles Lakers

HATE LEVEL: 10 of 10

I HATE: It sucks living in LA when the Lakers are good. Granted, there aren't many times when they are bad, but when they actually win titles, the city gets to an extra level of annoying. People put flags all over their car, slowing down an already-suffocating road system; drunken assholes of all races and professions march down the street like they were the ones playing in the game; and people who really don't care or know anything about sports awkwardly try to strike up conversations or talk about the team in interviews and IT ALL SUCKS. None of these people realize that the only way the Lakers became relevant again is because Chris Wallace gave up way too early on a franchise big man and settled for crap, more crap, and payroll relief. No, I still haven't gotten over that one.

As for the team itself, I wish there was something bad I could say or some hope of them slipping, but it just ain't gonna happen. They made two very smart moves in bringing in Steve Blake to back up Derek Fisher and Matt Barnes to serve as Ron Artest insurance. Both of these guys fit, and at positions they need depth. And just when they didn't deserve it, they got Shannon Brown back at a decent price. Teams that win titles should not be able to pick up people so easily. I wish there was a team out West who could challenge them, but there isn't. Dallas isn't quite good enough, OKC is another year away (and doesn't have the bigs), San Antonio is old, Denver is about to implode, Utah doesn't have the wings, Phoenix lost Amare, and Houston still has injury problems. They will win this conference easily, barring any major catastrophes. They already proved they were above the Magic two years ago, and Orlando hasn't really gotten better. The only teams in the league that can really take them are the Celtics or Heat, two teams I don't much like either. Hate. I hate.

[One reason I didn't extend the hate: Mychal Thompson. He's been fun. He's developed an almost Uecker-like level of self-parody for his career, which wasn't really that bad, but he has a good time. He always sounds like he's got his shoes off and is lying back with a pina colada. I can listen to him. I even made him my avatar/mascot for my fantasy team. Pride of the Bahamas!]

PROJECTED WINS: 60

Dallas Mavericks

HATE LEVEL: 5

I HATE: I should hate this team, considering they play in Dallas. But I like Cuban, I have respect for Nowitzki and Kidd, and they're a nice foil for the Lakers and Spurs' combined dominance of the West this decade. They've been on the cusp of being a serious contender the past few years, ever since they got knocked out by Golden State, but this might be their best shot at getting back to the finals. I don't think they can beat the Lakers, but they probably can make it to the conference finals. If anything, I hate them for not putting it together quite enough to beat LA.

The Mavs have changed their philosophy a couple of times this decade, but I think they have a good roster right now. They started out by trying to acquire as many good pieces as possible, regardless of how they played together. This led to weird teams where solid guys like Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison didn't have a spot. Then they tried to get a balanced team of supporting players around Dirk. This got them to the finals and the best record the next year, but they eventually gave it up. Last year, it seemed like they wanted to put out a small lineup again, but they tweaked it at the deadline. Now they have two decent centers (if Tyson Chandler is healthy, but he doesn't have to be 100% to help), a nice collection of shooters, defenders, a real point guard in Kidd, and some interesting young guys. The only guy who might not fit in is Caron Butler. He's not a guard, and he clashes with the offense sometimes. But he has an expiring deal and some value, so he'll probably be traded at some point. I'm sure Cuban will make more deals, but I don't know if it will be enough. With all the turmoil in the rest of the conference, I give them the runner-up spot.

PROJECTED WINS: 56

Not Seattle Sonics

HATE LEVEL: 8

I HATE: Ok, most of that hate is because this exciting team is not in Seattle anymore. One of the few great basketball hotbeds got a peek at one of the league's hottest new stars and then watched him go away. Not fair. Considering the last few markets to get NBA teams (Toronto, Vancouver-Memphis, New Orleans, Charlotte's retread, OKC), doesn't Oklahoma City get the best situation out of all of them? How does that happen? The good people of Seattle deserve much better, and while I think OKC has proved itself as a decent small market, they haven't had any ugly losing periods beyond their honeymoon to sour them. All those other cities had to deal with some awful teams without any stars. You guys got one Kevin Durant gift-wrapped to you. I hate. I HATE.

Actually, I do have some actual concerns about this team. I'm not sure what the ceiling is on some of their young guys. I have to compare them to Portland, their natural rival and the team before them that was getting all the buzz as being the brightest up-and-coming bunch. After last year, people had soured on Portland a little, realizing that they don't have any real stars besides Roy. I wonder if maybe this is the season where OKC's luster rubs off a little and people realize they don't have anything special besides Durant. You need at least two all stars to be a contender, and I don't know if Jeff Green or Russell Westbrook will ever be there. They are good, and Westbrook did make splashes on the national team, but I want to see more of them before I decide. This team also has a lot of question marks down low. At least Portland has Oden and Camby to protect them. This team has a jump shooter who doesn't go down low (Kristic) undersized forward types (Collison, White, Aldrich) and wild cards with big potential but no clue (Mullens, Ibaka). If no one steps up, they have a real size problem, especially since Durant and Green are natural small forwards (though big ones). Even though they put a scare into the Lakers, they got pummeled inside and will not be a real contender until they get some bigs. Everyone wants to see them in the conference finals and challenge the Lakers, but I put them a shade below until I see more. They are very good, I just want to make sure.

Projected wins: 54

Utah Jazz

Hate level: 5

I HATE: I love the beautiful state of Utah and its fantastic drivers! What could you hate? This team always seems to be in the middle of the playoffs, 4 or 5 seed, right around 50 wins. I thought Boozer leaving might drop them a tad, but they turned around and pulled off a shocking heist of Al Jefferson. Even though they had been trying to save money, they couldn't pass up a deal that good.

Maybe the most hatable thing about this team is that they make good moves, but always take one step back when they take one forward. It's got to be frustrating to their fans. Last year, they gave up quality young guards Ronnie Brewer and Eric Maynor for nothing just to get some cap relief. Their backcourt depth remains unsettled, although late pickups of Raja Bell and Earl Watson help. They drafted Next White Hope Gordon Hayward, but lost Previous White Hope Kyle Korver. They can't settle on a starting off guard, yet they always have big guys.

I think they're waiting for Kirilenko's contract to be over so they can make some decisions, but until then, they seem to be stuck. They have the big guys to throw at the Lakers, but not the wings. They'll be at the same place they have been.

Projected wins: 51

Portland Trail Blazers

Hate level: 6

I HATE: Ohh, the golden boys have lost their shine! For a few years, everyone talked about them as The Next Big Thing. They were supposed to take down the Lakers and build a new dynasty. Then, last year, you could hear the stampede leaving town and heading for Oklahoma. Is anyone left on the Blazer bandwagon?

This team isn't that bad; in fact, they are a quality bet to get to 50 wins. But no one is thinking of them as a contender anymore. They never found the third scorer to help Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. They haven't gotten much out of once-hyped Euros Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez. Andre Miller is a good point guard but a bad fit here. Greg Oden showed some poise but his injury history makes you think that anything can happen. At least they picked up Marcus Camby for depth.

I think they're going to hover around 50 wins and a middle playoff seed until they figure the roster out. With all those wings, they still signed Wes Matthews to a big deal, which was very confusing. They probably will trade Rudy at some point (don't they have to now?) and they will see if either of their rookies are worth it. This is not a bad team, but the magic, and Kevin Pritchard, are gone, and suddenly their future is not so bright. Poor Portland. A nice city deserves better. They had so much excitement and now they have so many questions. Well, at least you're not Seattle.

Projected wins: 50

San Antonio Spurs

Hate level: 4

I HATE: No reason to hate the Spurs anymore, because they are on the way down. They've been sinking for the past few years, and have the early playoff exits to show for it. Last year they got a small measure of revenge on Dallas from the year before, but were swept by their once inferior rival Suns. I don't think there's much left here. The only real reason to watch is to see if Tiago Splitter, talked about for years, is worth the hype. He could rejuvenate them a little. This roster is fine, with the big three still (mostly) holding down the fort and Richard Jefferson, though kind of a waste, providing some energy on the wings. I will look to see if they work any youngsters into the rotation, including first round pick James Anderson, Splitter, and onetime La Salle recruit Gary Neal. With Tony Parker approaching free agency and getting plenty of interest, this is the last hurrah for the Spurs as we've known them for the past few years. They could make a minor surprise run, but there's no real reason to project it with the way they've looked.

Projected wins: 48

New Orleans Hornets

Hate level: 6

I HATE: George Shinn. He's always been a bastard. He spends money and then criticizes it. He ruined a perfectly good situation in Charlotte, backed LJ over Zo (bad idea) and then traded him anyway, denied Michael Jordan a much better comeback story, and alienated one of the most loyal and zealous fan bases within a few years of creating the team. Since he came to New Orleans, he's been alternating in handing out dumb contracts and then dumping salary. He doesn't deserve to have a team. He doesn't deserve to have Chris Paul. When rumors started that CP wanted out, I figured that CP would be gone. After all, what has Shinn done whenever his star players have complained? Dumped them. For nothing.

I was figuring out trade machine deals for Paul to the Knicks when a funny thing happened: Shinn said he was selling (WHY DID IT TAKE YOU THIS FUCKING LONG??) the team, and the Hornets pulled off a sly trade to get Trevor Ariza and Marco Bellinelli while dumping James Posey off the books. They also gave up Darren Collison, who would've been a much cheaper replacement for CP if he left. They brought in a new coach and GM and promised CP that everything would be better. He calmed down.

So now what? The Hornets stand to have some decent wings surrounding Paul. He's never had an athletic finisher like Ariza, and Marcus Thornton got some nice looks as the off guard last year. He still has David West. Emeka Okafor was a disappointment, but is not a terrible player. They picked up Jerryd Bayless for depth and will probably have Jannero Pargo back. I kind of like this team, even if I don't know about frontcourt depth. They still have Peja off the bench, and it's nice that they don't have to depend on him to play a lot. Maybe he will be good in limited time. I just have a feeling that with CP back for a full year and a decent lineup, they can sneak into the playoffs. It's possible. Now just get Shinn out of there.

Projected wins: 46

Houston Rockets

Hate Level: 5

I HATE: I hate fate for cursing them. This is the team - not Dallas, not Denver, not anyone else - that should have been challenging the Lakers the past few years. Daryl Morey inherited a team with two star players and nothing else, and spent the past few years doing a wonderful job surrounding them with talent. He built up a team with no assets and low draft picks to get the necessary supporting players to those stars. But, just when they had a strong supporting cast, the two stars fell off the face of the Earth with injuries and weird problems. If the Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady of 2005-07 had the supporting cast of 2009-10, they might have mounted a real threat to the Lakers. But no. It just didn't work out. Now Houston has a collection of supporting players without the star base.

Last year, the Rockets impressed everyone by playing hard and scrapping without Yao or another big name. They had a lot of unknown parts that gelled and overachieved. They managed to later turn some of their parts into a decent wing, Kevin Martin. If they could just have Yao healthy for one year, I would list them as the second best team in the conference. But they already announced that they would be bringing him back slowly and limiting minutes. Once again, they will have to scrap and work hard, and I think that will get them back to where they just were. I like the back court of Martin and Aaron Brooks a lot. I'm surprised they gave up on Ariza so quickly, but they clearly want shooters around their big guys and Courtney Lee is a nice wing to have. They have too many big guys to use, so I think there will be some more moves. If they can get another impact player, maybe that will make up for it. But they are going to have to hope that Yao is okay, and that's a risk.

Projected wins: 45

Phoenix Suns

Hate Level: 8

I HATE: Robert Sarver is another owner that's hard to figure out. He infamously dumped draft picks and refused to make a few small deals that would have put the Suns over the top during their glory Nash-Marion years, yet had no problem giving cash to questionable guys like Boris Diaw, Marcus Banks, and Shaq (who was older and didn't fit the system). This summer, he really made a weird play, letting Amare go and then spending on Hedo Turkoglu, Hakim Warrick, and Channing Frye. WHAT?? Amare may or may not be worth the cash, but for the amount they spent on those guys..... that's just weird. He dumped Steve Kerr, who was trying hard to revitalize the team, and now I have no idea where they go.

As much as he had problems on D and rebounding, Amare was valuable to this team for his inside scoring. They replaced him with a bunch of forwards who don't go down low, and aren't even much better on defense. Turkoglu is not really a four, and Hakim Warrick is a decent slasher who doesn't really have a spot either. Warrick was an especially weird signing because they already had Earl Clark, a similar player, and Jared Dudley, a combo forward who does a lot of the small things. They needed an inside guy if anything, and didn't get it. Robin Lopez is not a scorer. Turkoglu was good, then looked lost in Toronto, and even though he might look better playing next to Nash, I think he was mostly just in a good situation in Orlando that utilized him perfectly. I don't have much hope for him. Or this team.

Steve Nash deserves better. They have enough scoring to be a threat for the playoffs, but the pieces do not fit together. I think it's back to the lottery, although they will be close and could slip in.

Projected wins: 44

Memphis Grizzlies

Hate level: 4

I HATE: I really wanted to hate this team last year, but they surprised everyone by flirting with the playoffs and getting to the .500 mark. Their starting lineup was solid; Zach Randolph finally put it together enough to be an all-star, and they made some strides. They had no bench at all, but they've made a few moves to help that. They drafted wing Xavier Henry and signed defensive specialist Tony Allen. Haseem Thabeet looks like a bust, but with Marc Gasol looking fine, they may not need him to be more than a role player. They just need to build up the roster a little. One question: do they like Mike Conley? He's the one starter that hasn't been doing great. He hasn't been terrible, but he's the one questionable part. They haven't brought in any backups for him, so they must see something. Otherwise, I like this team and I think they just need a little more time.

Projected wins: 40

Denver Nuggets

Hate level: 8

I HATE: They're almost certainly going to lose Carmelo. The only issue is when. That will kill them for now. It's not all their fault for him wanting to leave. But they should be hated a little for how it all happened. They overspent on Nene and Kenyon Martin, which killed their chances of signing other people, especially when they already had Marcus Camby. Then they tried to dump everyone they could. It worked the past few years, as those guys finally got healthy and made the team into a contender. But trades like giving away Camby for nothing probably made Melo question where this team was going. They got Iverson as a weird fit, then smartly dumped him for Billups. They got a nice pickup of Ty Lawson. But they didn't get another big guy to help when Camby left, and that cost them.

In reality, the Nuggets had everything going for them when they made the conference finals two years ago. That was their peak and Melo had to see that. Even though they will have space this summer after Martin's horrendous deal finally runs out, he is gone. They can still salvage themselves with the right deal and a few draft picks, but they have to see that the time is over. It's hard to project wins because they could make a deal next week, or it could wait until February. Either way, I think there's enough dysfunction to keep them out of the playoffs.

Projected wins: 38 (pending)

Los Angeles Clippers

Hate level: 7

I HATE: I hate that the team I could be following closely is almost as depressing as my hometown team. They get so close, but they could be doing so much better. They could be a real rival to the Lakers. They could get out of the Staples Center, go to Anaheim, and grow their own fan base. They could be a real NBA team with an identity and not just living off the Lakers' sloppy seconds and discount tickets. But no, Donald Sterling, maybe the most hateable (and that's saying something) of all the hateable owners, just doesn't care. So they lose the chance to seriously pursue LeBron or Carmelo or someone great that could make them into a contender.

The irony is that they used to draft horrible players, but now have figured out how to do better... they just lose them one way or another. Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, and Chris Kaman are good. They have built a nice team. They need a small forward, but they did draft Al-Faroq Aminu and he might help later. They need more now, but they have a nice base. They have the talent to make the playoffs, but will they? They're the Clippers.

Projected wins: 36

Golden State Warriors

Hate level: 5

I HATE: That the Warriors couldn't get a new owner until now. They've had fascinating teams since that takedown of the Mavs, but sucked. Now, they dumped a lot of guys and are trying over with three key players: Stephon Curry, David Lee, and Monta Ellis. They provide a lot of offense and no D. This is a nice fantasy team, and fun to watch, but they will continue to lose games until they rebuild things. After having about 8 shooting guards/wings on the roster last year, they are surprisingly weak on the wings. Dorrell Wright, who didn't do much in Miami despite some chances, is the new small forward. Reggie Williams, who came on strong last year, is probably going to be the real guy there.

I like what they're doing, and they have a direction, but they need to start building up the roster with more guys.

Projected wins: 32

Sacramento Kings

Hate level: 7

I HATE: I didn't hate much until I remembered that this team made me look dumb... and is probably moving. They really impressed me last year, looking like a team with a bright future. I berated them for not taking Ricky Rubio in the draft. Whoops! Tyreke Evans was awesome and looked like a real franchise player. I didn't like them having to give up Kevin Martin to fit him in, but they'll be able to find a shooter to put next to him. With the drafting of DeMarcus Cousins, and the steal of Omri Casspi, they have a solid foundation. They also have depth on the front line with Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Sam Dalembert, Donte Greene, and maybe steal Hassan Whiteside. They need some guard depth, but that's about it. They will struggle now, but they are building.

Last year, I was ready to declare them the worst and least-talented team in the league. Now, they have a promising base. And right when that happens, they're gonna move. Horrible. There is nothing but hate in this league.

Projected wins: 28

Minnesota Timberwolves

Hate level: 30

I HATE: Everything about this sorry joke of a franchise. Was it really not that long ago that they were the at the top of the conference? Well, six years. That's a lot in NBA terms. Since they did that, they've fallen into a worse abyss than they had pre-KG. They have the worst roster on paper, the least amount of talent, the biggest scoring problems, and no franchise player to speak of other than Kevin Love, and I don't know if he fits that bill. Instead of drafting a quality big man or trading up to get Evan Turner, they settled for Wesley Johnson, a serviceable wing but a guy who should never be a key component on a team. They dumped Al Jefferson, the only guy who was even close to being an all-star, for almost nothing. They claimed that he couldn't play together with Love. I'm not sure about that, but I feel even more dubious about Michael Beasley fitting in with Love. That is a bad mix. They have some guard depth now, but no one is really that good. They have a lot of mediocre guys who should be 8th or 9th men in key positions. I don't even want to touch the center spot, where infamous stiffs Darko (he only needs one name) and Kostas Koufos will try to show... anything? Something!

David Kahn has quickly become a running joke, and it's for a reason. They have no direction. The Jefferson trade not only cost them their best player, but it also basically ruined the remains of the KG deal. With Ryan Gomes gone, the Wolves have nothing left to show for trading away the best player in franchise history three years after it happened. Terrible. I haven't even gotten to the Ricky Rubio fiasco yet. They mishandled that horribly, as drafting Jonny Flynn was a big problem. At least Stephon Curry would be better and could play some off guard to entice Rubio. Now, he has no reason to come here and I don't see why he would. Flynn is solid but they blew two top picks with that selection. Now they need to get lucky in the draft.

I think they're going to be historically bad. The Nets won 12 games last year with better players, and they were in an easier conference. The Wolves managed only 15 wins with Jefferson and Gomes, two guys who at least provided some scoring. Unless Beasley makes a huge leap, I think they should be even worse.

Projected wins: 10. Not kidding.

EAST

Miami Heat

Hate level: 50

I HATE: Yeah, I'm on the Heat Haters bandwagon. I still can't wrap my head around this. I am curious to see how they will do, but I know they are going to kill people. I already wrote about this in my last column after the big decision was announced. They are going to be good and they are going to win. Everyone hoping for them to fall apart is going to be disappointed. They have too much, and they have some role players now to balance it out. They won't win the title without a real center, but they can easily get the best record in the East and I like them better than almost every team. Orlando and Boston will be tough in certain spots, but if LeBron almost took them down by himself, what's going to happen when he goes at them with two other stars? It's not going to be pretty. I'm tired of talking about them. I'm sure we'll hear a million things more.

Projected wins: 62

Orlando Magic

Hate level: 4

I HATE: Their new arena is furnished by a guy who runs a giant pyramid scheme. So that's cool. This team is in a weird spot. Just as they were happy to realize they had an advantage over Cleveland, they got a reminder that it wouldn't be the same against Boston with a healthy KG. Then, LeBron pulled the rug out on everyone. People are trying to back them as the team that can take down the Heat, but really, they're the third best team in the East (even if the records won't say so).

I'm not saying their finals appearance was a fluke, as they played great that year and shot unbelievably well, but they had to know they got a little luck with no KG and them being a matchup nightmare for Cleveland. To their credit, they did not stand still after that great run. They tried to make themselves better and deeper. Most teams wouldn't have been so bold. But now, they have an aging Vince Carter and a lineup that doesn't have all the quirks it did.

I know, I know, they have Dwight Howard and he can kill the Heat. But then, who does Rashard Lewis guard? Who do they have besides Mickael Pietrus to stop LeBron and Wade? I don't buy it. And the Celtics proved who was the best in their matchup.

I can see them getting 60 wins, I can see them having the best record in the conference and maybe the league, but unless Boston and Miami have serious problems, I don't think this is a finals team.

Projected wins: 60

Atlanta Hawks

Hate level: 6

I HATE: This franchise has made a big circle. In the late 90's, they put together a bunch of respectable teams that always made the playoffs and usually even advanced one round. They were solid and always seemed like one piece away from a contender. Yet they didn't attract fans and were seen as boring. So, to shake things up, they traded for (sentimental blogger favorite) Isiah Rider, which failed horribly, then Shareef Abdur-Rahim, which failed, but not that horribly, just kind of almost being there. Then they tanked one year too late to get the real prize (local stud Dwight Howard) but amazingly passed up the chance to get Chris Paul when they really needed a point guard. They suffered and suffered until finally they built a decent smallball team that won 50 games and advanced to the second round the past two years.

So….

Now they're in that holding pattern again. Most people have them in the same spot or sliding just a bit. No one thinks of them as a contender, just another team that will make the playoffs and scare no one. I'm still shocked that Joe Johnson came back here and even more shocked that they ponied up for him. They don't mind the notion that they're ok where they are. Don't they remember how it turned out last time?

I'm putting them third because I think they might just make a little improvement this year. I like Jordan Crawford as a rookie, and they brought in some bigs to help up front. But their base as it is not going to get any farther, so unless they make big changes, they will do the same. They can't compete with the Heat, Magic, or Celtics in the playoffs.

I'm just waiting for them to make that trade for Michael Beasley or Arenas in a few years.

Projected wins: 54

Boston Celtics: 5

I HATE: That they couldn't pull it off, and that I even wanted them to in the first place. This franchise has 17 titles. I feel no sympathy for them. It was nice in a way for the big three to get their title two years ago. They've all been professionals and I don't hate them. I just wish it happened in a city where they didn't already have 30 Hall of Famers. But they're here, and now they're one of the teams counted on to challenge the new Heat power. I don't know.

I have a feeling that they are going to coast a little in the regular season again. They are old, they are saving themselves, and they know it.

There are some questions here. I wonder which big guy gets left out when Perkins comes back. Five is a lot. I also want to know how much each one has left. KG looked dead for most of last season and then pulled it together for the playoffs, only to fade a little at the end. I have doubts about both O'Neals, although Shaq still has some skills.

They got a huge break when Delonte West came limping back to them. He can shoot, defend, and play both guard spots. They really needed perimeter depth, and he's good.

They already proved they can take down the Magic with enough healthy people. They are the only team in the East that can stare down Miami…. But if they don't take the regular season seriously, they may face the Heat in the second round and not the conference finals. I don't know how that series goes then. They might have to slug it out vs. the Bulls or Bucks beforehand. I think the Heat have the advantage, but man, is that interesting.

It's so hard to say with this team. They looked dead all year and then managed to get within a few points of a title. I am going in between and saying they are a tough playoff team but don't make the finals.

Projected wins: 52

Chicago Bulls

Hate level: 4

I HATE: They finally got their scoring power forward and now they don't have enough guards. Frustrating. For years, they needed an inside scorer. Finally, they get to free agency, score nice with a not-quite-huge star, but get dumped on the other end. I thought they would get Joe Johnson, but no, and now they have another hole to fill.

Still, I do like this team, and I think they get to 50 wins. They brought in some depth, have some defense and shooters, and are going to play hard under Thibodeaux. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver will tag team as they did in Utah for defense and shooting, but until Chicago gets a real two guard, they will be in the middle of the playoff pack.

Projected wins: 50

Milwaukee Bucks

Hate level: 7

I HATE: This franchise for constantly beguiling me. Last year I berated them for dumping people and drafting a string of bad point guards when they could've just had Chris Paul. They spent the past decade signing people to awful, terrible contracts, and then letting good players go for nothing to save cash. They have, on the whole, the most up-and-down front office history this decade. I declared them the worst team in the East and the least talented team in the league. I put them number one on my list of teams I would vote to be contracted.

Then the season started, and you know how that went. They surprised everyone on the way to the playoffs, and became a popular young team. Andrew Bogut finally made some progress and Brandon Jennings proved he was a point guard they should finally stick with. They got earnest contributions from some cheap pick ups like Carlos Delfino and Luc Richard Mbahohyouknow and scrapped along as some of their high-paid problems sat on the bench. They were such a feel good team.

I was really impressed with how John Hammond rebuilt this team in one year…. until the summer came and he abandoned his philosophy to hand out more contracts. He signed Drew Gooden and John Salmons, two guys with a lot of stops. He traded for Corey Magette, a highly paid scorer who doesn't do much else and hasn't won much. It seemed like he forgot everything he did and went back to the old Bucks style of giving up too much they'd regret later.

So, I don't know what to think of this team, and I'm tired of trying to figure out where they will go. They've surprised before, only to fall back the next year. I think they will be fine this year just because the conference is terrible, and Bogut and Jennings are for real, but I don't know how the new guys will fit. I'll call it a wash from the progress they made last year.

Projected wins: 45

New York Knicks

Hate level: 5

I HATE: That I felt so bad for these guys that I was rooting for them this summer. I used to love taunting Knicks fans, as I know quite a few, but it started to get sad after the mistakes of the old started to ruin the next few years. Isiah's infamous miscues ruined them in the short and long term. They didn't have enough assets to attract players, regardless of cap space, and they realized their dreams of getting LeBron and others was not going to end up well. Amare and Ray Felton just don't have the same ring.

But there is hope. While losing out on some big names, they did get Stoudemire to provide scoring inside they haven't had since Ewing. Felton, though no Chris Paul, is a solid point and much better than anyone they've had in a while. Throw in the progress of Wilson Chandler and Danillo Gallinari and they have a decent roster. They should have enough to make the playoffs in the East. And they will probably have a shot at landing Carmelo and maybe some other guys. Finally hope in New York.

I still give them a hate rating because I know those Knick fans will become unbearable again once they get players. They were cocky at first about the guys Isiah was bringing in, even though we all knew it was a bad idea. Also, James Dolan, by all accounts, is a spoiled asshole and let all this destruction happen. Don't get too comfy yet, New Yorkers.

Projected wins: 42

Charlotte Bobcats

Hate level: 6

I HATE: This team finally broke through and made the playoffs, and yet they remain a disappointing franchise. Even though they broke through, their talent level is just not that impressive. They had to give up key guys because they didn't want to pay for them, and are now hoping they have just enough to get by. Instead of building a foundation for the future, they scrapped together an older team just so they could taste the postseason. Now they're back to being just okay.

It's been a weird second stage for Charlotte in the NBA. The Hornets always had stars, even if George Shinn got rid of them. The Bobcats have never had a real superstar and have been filled with guys who were good but not amazing. Ray Felton was nice but was so uninteresting that they drafted D.J. Augustin high. Gerald Wallace finally became the first all-star last year, but he's not really a franchise player. They get by with these guys who had a few good years, like Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson, but are nothing special. They have a few overpaid centers who have done nothing of recent. Where do they go from here?

The only thing working in their favor is that they can still make the playoffs because all the other teams in the bottom half of the East just aren't there. I do think Tyrus Thomas could be a find, and I liked Augustin a lot coming out of college. They might step up (and they'll need to for my money). I just feel like the city is bored with this team.

Projected wins: 37

Indiana Pacers

Hate level: 6

I HATE: I was ready to kill these guys for putting together a horrible roster and the most boring team in the league. Larry Bird has had a rough time as GM and they've been stuck in mediocrity hell for a while. Then they pulled off a sly trade to get Darren Collison without giving up anyone they really needed long term. That kept them from the absolute basement. Now, with some contracts coming off the books, they might just have some hope, but it will take a lot more work.

I feel awful for the Indiana fans, who always support basketball at every level. This is one of the states that really cares and they shouldn't have to watch them put out a team that wins 35 games every year. I know Bird was crippled by the fallout of the Artest melee, but he didn't have to pile up all these bad contract guys. Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, and T.J. Ford were indeed signed by other people, but he picked them up. He also drafted uninspiring guys from the late lottery instead of taking more chances. This kept them in a cycle of being not that great, but not horrible enough to get anyone good.

He might have some promise now with Roy Hibbert, who has shown some low post moves. If Hibbert can be a decent center, and either Brandon Rush or Paul George steps up on the wings, they will have less spots to fill. Danny Granger, though he deserves better, is staying here because he is a solid citizen and nice guy and they need him. He and Collison will put up numbers and make this team somewhat watchable…. Just a little. They are still pretty bad in spots, particularly down low. They are the weakest at power forward in the whole league, and if Hibbert gets in foul trouble, they don't really have much center depth either.

It's going to be another 35 win year, but that may change soon. They have a shot at the playoffs if enough other teams falter.

Projected wins: 35

Washington Wizards

Hate level: 4

I HATE: The way they gave up last year. They dumped four starters for basically nothing. This wouldn't have hurt as much if they didn't already give up a top 5 pick before the season to make a run. They lost a potential top guy for Randy Foye and Mike Miller, both now gone. Horrible. They didn't get any young talent for Caron Butler or Antawn Jamison, just some low draft picks. Awful. Yeah, they were blindsided by the whole gun fiasco, but they could have responded better.

But then the summer came, and they got lucky in the lottery, and they made a few smart changes. They used their cap space to get Kirk Hinrich and Yi, two guys who could contribute right away. They also got some picks. Two big guys they had been working on for years, JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche, developed more. Now they have a more intriguing approach.

The real question is if they can move Gil Arenas. They might want to see how he does off the ball. I always though he'd be a better two guard, a la Iverson, but a guy who is used to having the ball in his hands so much might not adjust. If they can get something out of him, either by making him happy or setting up a deal, they might just be on their way, because John Wall is the real deal.

Projected wins: 31

Philadelphia 76ers

Hate level: 50

I HATE: Oh dear.

Where do I start?

Do I start with them dumping Maurice Cheeks too soon?

Do I start with Eddie Jordan not using anyone properly? Do I start with Doug Collins, who seems like a real reach? What a bizarre coaching carousel. I doubt it's over.

Do I start with them taking Evan Turner even though they already had a bunch of wings who couldn't shoot? They could have traded down and taken Cousins, Favors, Monroe… now Turner is getting bad reviews and probably won't even start on opening night. And since they traded Dalembert, they now have no legit starting center. Wonderful.

Do I start with them handing over too much money to Iguodala, even though he didn't really have any competition? I like him, but he's not worth that much.

I won't even touch Elton Brand because I did endorse that one. I'm as stupid as they were.

Look, they've tried hard to rebuild after letting Iverson go. This is not as bad as the Sixers teams I grew up with that tried to sell us on Shawn Bradley and Sharone Wright. No sir. They are picking up decent guys… it's just that they could be better and spend a lot less cash.

I don't know. I really don't. I like a few things. Jrue Holiday was a nice find at point, Lou Williams is a good combo guard scorer off the bench, and maybe Thad Young will come back. Spencer Hawes should not be a starter, but is fine as a backup, as is Mareese Speights. They're going to go small (as if they had a choice), which worked for them two years ago to get to the playoffs. It wouldn't be a huge shock. But they are going to be murdered down low, on defense, and on the boards.

Maybe they will work out some trades. Maybe Brand will finally come around. But for the most part, I can think of nothing but hate for my hometown team.

Projected wins: 30

Detroit Pistons

Hate level: 6

I HATE: Watching this crummy misfit team. They don't have a center or a point guard, just a bunch of combo forwards and off guards. How did Joe Dumars do so well before? He's lost it. He spent money on positions they already had, traded away their glue guy Billups, and put together a tremendously weird roster. He found some nice young guys in the second round, but he created such a logjam that it's hard to see what his plan is unless he has a bunch of trades coming.

Instead of going after a true center with post moves, they spent a lot on Charlie Villanueva, an outside shooter forward. Then they drafted a couple guys just like him. They brought in Ben Wallace off waivers presumably to be a veteran influence, but he ended up having to play major minutes for them because they didn't have any decent rebounders. They signed Ben Gordon and promoted Rodney Stuckey even though they already had lots of money tied up in Rip Hamilton. I don't get it.

And that's before the Tracy McGrady experiment. Joe D! Pay attention!

I do like Greg Monroe. Even though I think he's more of a forward than a center, he is crafty in the post and they will need him. If they can move Hamilton's big contract (and maybe using Tayshaun Prince's expiring), they will free up some minutes. Until then, I don't see why they get anywhere.

Projected wins: 28

New Jersey Nets

Hate level: 5

I HATE: They got jacked in the summer sweepstakes. I actually really liked what this team was doing the past few years. They had gotten old, and traded away all their guys for draft picks and younger ones. They created enough space and drafted well with the picks they did have to set up a strong run in free agency… except it never happened. Everyone turned them down and they had to overspend on Travis Outlaw just to reach the minimum salary.

I really thought they had a shot at LeBron and some of the other top guys. They had a nice base with Brook Lopez and Devin Harris, and a top draft pick in Derrick Favors. But he said no, and every other major free agent found a home. I still like their base, and if they can get a high scoring wing, they will be dangerous. They are going after Carmelo, but if they have to give up Harris and/or Favors to get him, it will be tough. Their best bet may be to try dealing Troy Murphy for someone during the season, or just waiting until the summer and see what happens.

For now, they will be better than 12 wins. I could see them sneaking into the playoffs if they just had a few more guys. They still need depth and scoring, though, so I am sticking them with around 30 wins. The good news is that they are (almost certainly) moving to Brooklyn, and they will have cap space again, so they can still look ahead.

Projected wins: 26

Cleveland Cavaliers

Hate level: 6

I HATE: I don't hate them. God or some force does. I feel terrible for the good people of Cleveland, who have never done anything to deserve what they have gone through. This is going to be maybe the hardest season anyone has had in the city.

I do have issues with the management. Maybe they never had a chance to keep LeBron. Maybe he was going to bail them with his buddies no matter what. I don't know. I do know that they missed several chances to impress him and get better. They tried, and they spent, but they didn't do it wisely until recent. For example, why didn't more people question signing Larry Hughes? He was not a shooter. He was a combo guard who liked to handle the ball. That was a terrible idea. I know that they went after Michael Redd and Ray Allen first that summer, and both of those guys turned them down. But that move nearly crippled them. It took them way too long to realize that LeBron's driving and passing abilities meant that they should surround him with good shooters. Once they did that, the team got better. They shouldn't have wasted his time with the likes of Hughes and Eric Snow, good passer but not shooters.

Last year, they could have done a lot more with different lineups, going small, and being innovative offensively, but they didn't. They dominated Boston at points in that series but didn't keep it up. That's partly to blame on coaching. It's not all LeBron's fault for their failures. They deserve some hate. [Not to mention Dan Gilbert's silly fonted, spurned-14-year-old girl angry letter. Not smart.]

And for this season, they could have done more. I'm glad they didn't make any panic trades to overpay for a guy to try to replace LeBron, but they could have at least bolstered depth. They barely made any moves at all. This has ensured them a place in the lottery, and that's probably the best way to go in the long term, but then why not trade some of their established guys? If they are going to be bad (they are), and they only traded for Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams to make a run with LeBron (they did), why keep them now? They don't fit a rebuilding plan. They could easily send those guys to contending teams to pick up draft picks and space. They're not big stars and they're not bringing fans in. They need to get on it.

Some have suggested that they could still be a playoff team. Uh, no. This talent level is not that good, and most of these guys were brought in to fit LeBron. Without him, they lose value. Williams isn't a real point guard, Jamison isn't a real big guy, and Varejao is not a scorer. They were good parts to a car that now has no engine. Who is even going to start at small forward? I would compare them to the Wizards, with Jamison and Williams as a Gil Arenas type…. except there's no Caron Butler. And the Wizards haven't been good. No, this team is not going to get close to winning, and they need to realize it. J.J. Hickson and some of the young wings should get more time. They're all that's left.

Projected wins: 22

Toronto Raptors

Hate level: 4

I HATE: Like Cleveland, they got dumped horribly but also didn't make any moves to help. If they didn't make the playoffs with Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu, they sure aren't going to after losing them for mostly nothing. They have a weird collection of wings and big guys who haven't done much. Their point guard battle took so many weird turns last year. They only decent scorer is Andrea Bargnani, who fed off of Bosh. This is going to be horrible.

They tried a few odd cleanup moves to help, but I don't know if they will. Linus Kleiza will have a chance to start, but he didn't do much in Denver when they needed him. Amir Johnson has been a nice energy guy down low, but they gave him a huge contract that just about everyone questioned. Leandro Barbosa can score, but is getting old.

Bryan Colangelo's plan to surround Bosh with a bunch of European players and emulate the Suns didn't work. There are no young studs save for DeMar DeRozan and Ed Davis, and they have questions. So I guess the question isn't if they are worse off than Cleveland, it's if God hates Canada more.

Projected wins: 18

By the way, I did check and my projected wins do add up realistically. They're only an approximation, but it could happen. YEAH! MATH!

…..

So… what does this all mean? Why do I hate so much? So many owners are easy to hate. I realized when making this preview that I can only support a few of them. So many players are earning so much for so little production. The owners decry the dumb contracts, but they gave them out. There is, by all accounts, going to be a lockout next year. They will make changes. I don't want to lose any games, but I know they can't continue like this. Which side do I root for?

But, I love basketball, and I'm curious about all the changes, so I will watch. I will watch and I will give them my money, and I will feel bad about it, but I can't stop.

The NBA! Where people who like basketball have no choice but to watch happens!

More predictions…

FINALS: Lakers over Heat in 6

I'm already dreading it.

CONFERENCE FINALS: Lakers over Mavs, Heat over Magic * - unless Boston gets Orlando in the semis, in which case, Heat over Celtics

MVP: Durant

Too easy. Kobe is taking it easy in the regular season, LeBron & wade cancel out for voters, and Dwight doesn't score enough for voters.

DEF: Dwight Howard

Joakim Noah and Rajon Rondo will get love, but Dwight has owned this.

ROOKIE: John Wall

I like Blake Griffin, but I question his health, and Wall has a better shot at the playoffs because his conference is weaker.

SIXTH MAN: Paul Millsap

Hard one to call. Houston has a few guys who could do it, and there's Jason Terry (but he already won), Lamar Odom, Delonte West, J.J. Redick, Mike Miller (if he's not out too long)… a lot of guys.

MOST IMPROVED: D.J. Augustin

I believe! My fantasy team believes! And he's the only guy at his spot on a team that's not terrible. It works. I also like James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, JaVale McGee, Anthony Randolph, and J.J. Hickson.

ALL NBA: Durant, LeBron, Dwight, CP, Kobe second – Stoudemire, Duncan, Nowitzki, De Williams, Roy

ALL ROOKIE: John Wall, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins, Wes Johnson, Greg Monroe

LeBron's choice: meh

Wow, I haven’t posted on here in a while. I guess this is as good as a time as ever to write about basketball, though. This was a big day. This was a big decision. Was it worth making a whole event out of? Probably not, although there was legitimate suspense.

When I heard LeBron say that he was going to Miami, I was really disappointed. I don’t fault him for trying to win. I don’t fault him for going to a nice area. I don’t fault him for wanting to have star teammates. I don’t know if this was the way to do it, on national television with a contrived special, but that’s not the worst thing here.

I like basketball. It’s always been my favorite sport and the one I would play and watch if I could pick just one. I like following the NBA. I like having a league with star players and good teams, but also just enough drama so it’s not obvious which team is going to win it all. This signing has created an imbalance that is going to put things out of whack.

A lot of experts are trying to dull the wild expectations for the Miami triumvirate, pointing out that they don’t have a center, a bench, enough point guards, and any real help for the stars. It’s true, but it’s not going to matter soon. In a short time, they will be getting an influx of older veterans looking for a chance to win. After this year, they will have some exceptions to use as well. They can find a decent center, especially since they just need a defensive guy. They will find shooters on the cheap. They don’t even need a real point guard since LeBron and Wade can handle the ball so much. They just need guys who will defend and shoot, and they can find them fairly easily once they settle the roster.

In the past 15 years, the Heat had a lot of money tied up in big players, but they managed to find unheralded role players to fill in the roster. Guys like Anthony Carter, Bruce Bowen, Ike Austin, (later) Keyon Dooling, my boy Rasual Butler, Udonis Haslem and Rafer Alston all got to play there while they had money tied up with bigger stars. Pat Riley has done it and he will do it. Getting three all-league guys in their prime was the hardest part, and they’ve done that.

So yes, I expect them to win now and win a lot more in the next few years. I don’t buy the people trying to downplay it. This is huge. LeBron’s decision alters the power in the East, not just for Miami, but for all the teams he passed on. With him and Bosh going to Miami, Cleveland and Toronto will suck. Hard. New Jersey has nothing yet - though I like their foundation, there is no player left that can turn things around for them anytime soon. New York is disappointed. They needed two big free agents and they’re not getting them. Even if they could land Tony Parker and Carmelo next year, I wouldn’t put them above Miami once they settle things. Their best bet might be to try to get Chris Paul. They need someone to get the ball to Amare, and if not, this team isn’t much better than it was the last few years. It might make the playoffs, but it’s not a lock. Atlanta is good but they’ve probably reached their ceiling. No one really considers them a title threat, even if they can win 50 games a year. They can’t spend much more money, and they’re small. Chicago is good, and if they would’ve gotten Joe Johnson, I would say they are a true contender, but they need more scoring now. I don’t know who is left that would save them. Milwaukee surprised people and showed some poise with some unknown guys, but they just spent a lot of money on guys with a history of attitude problems. Those were some bizarre moves after they had just put together a likable team. I don’t know what’s up with that franchise; they’ve been one of the nuttiest.

The rest of the conference is in bad shape. The Sixers? Yeah that didn’t work. The Bobcats are just okay and might lose Raymond Felton, the Pistons are a mess and full of bad contracts, the Wizards blew themselves up and will take a while to recover, the Pacers are the definition of mediocre and have been treading water unsuccessfully, and… that’s it. The only team that could go from lottery to playoffs is New York.

I have to say that Boston and Orlando are really the only teams you can put above Miami, and I’m dubious about them. Boston struggled during the regular season, and even though they made a triumphant rebirth in the playoffs, I wonder how much they have left. KG lifted himself up in the postseason, but he’s clearly hurting and on the downside. Those guys are all headed downhill, except for Rondo. Even though they made that great run, do you believe it will happen next year? In 2 years? I think it was their last stand.

Orlando finished the regular season hot, but didn’t look as coherent as they did a year ago in the playoffs. They’re probably the favorites… but no matter how bad Miami will get beat at center, do you trust Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis to handle Wade and LeBron? Dwight may kill inside, but then, who guards Bosh on the other end? I don’t trust that team completely. And again, in another year, they will have to make a decision on Vince and who knows what they will look like.

LeBron’s move really put the conference at whole into a state of panic. No team can deal with this firepower, they can only hope they have more balance. And again, after next year, things will look even better for Miami. Throw in the fact that Kobe is getting older, Amare left Phoenix, and Denver is a question mark….

Should we get ready for a couple of Miami vs. Oklahoma City finals? I don’t care if it will feature 4 of the best guys in the game, it just sounds awful. HEAT! THUNDER! It’s a freaking weather forecast.

That brings me to the second part of my post: the city aspect. I’m biased here, because I grew up near Philly in the rough Midwest-to-northeast sports craze. People care about sports there, maybe too much. We have awful teams sometimes, but we wear our devotion to them on our sleeve, and our suffering is like a badge of honor. See: Red Sox, Cubs, et al. Since I have moved to California, I have noticed the difference in bloodthirsty fans vs. laid back. It’s just not the same. Miami (the whole state of Florida, really) is very fair-weather, except for football. The Heat had such a weird crowd during the past few years, and they weren’t always into it. For us die-hards, it is painful to watch a beautiful city where people have better things to do get the spoils.

Until now, it was cool to have LeBron play in his hometown, a city that had suffered so much heartbreak. It would have been a great story, one of the best sports stories in years, for him to lead them to a title and erase all that pain. When I realized that the Sixers had made a terrible mistake this year, I drifted towards rooting for the Cavs for the playoffs, just because I wanted that pain to be over. I knew how they felt. I’m feeling you, Cleveland. You don’t deserve this.

I know that it was unfair to LeBron to have that much pressure on him, and he shouldn’t carry all the weight. It’s not worth killing him over. He did choose less money and better teammates. I’m more puzzled that he would change his legacy this quick. I’m not calling him Scottie Pippen as thousands seem to be. I think that he and Wade will try to say (at least publicly) that they are equals, and they will try to be treated as co-stars, rather than have one get more billing (don’t know if Bosh will be in the same level). But of course, he’ll never be seen in the same light and any discussion of great players will ultimately bring up the fact that he left to join up with other guys, while other great players had good sidekicks come to them. He was headed to a place in maybe the top ten players of all-time, but now, you can’t put him above Wade, and everything he does will have to be shared.

I remember when I was growing up and I desperately wanted Barkley to beat Jordan just once in the playoffs. Someone suggested to me that, if Sir Charles wanted a championship, he should try to join the Bulls. That sounded stupid to me. What would be the fun in that? Later on, he did join a team that had always foiled him in the playoffs, the Rockets. It felt weird. I had to root for the team that had embarrassed my own team and had grown to despise. It didn’t work. I know this is not like LeBron joining Boston or Orlando, but it is a weird collection of power. Someone compared it to A-Rod joining the Yankees. That’s not so far off. People are going to hate the Heat for having so much, and root against them every year. I always feel better when the Yankees lose in the playoffs. Of course, they didn’t last year. Talent usually wins out sooner or later, especially if it is kept in place for several years. People are going to hope the Heat never win, and they’re going to be disappointed. Maybe not this year, but soon.

(You know who looks really good right now? Tim Duncan. Look at his supporting cast in his first three titles. He had a few nice players …. who were either really old or really young. He never really played with another all-star in their actual prime until Parker and Ginobli developed, and that was after the 2003 title…. and in 2005 they weren’t all the way there either. David Robinson was not nearly what he once was during this stretch. Duncan’s resume might be the most amazing. Think about it.)

I don’t like it when all the big cities get the perks. New York and Los Angeles (and Chicago, to a point) get to have all the fun, and small markets are shut out. I liked having Cleveland in the mix. It’s odd that LeBron chose one middle-level market over another, especially after his flirtation with the Knicks and Bulls. But even though I don’t like those cities getting everything, I do understand why the league wants it that way. Big markets and interesting teams help boost ratings. I’ve been angry at how easy the Lakers and Celtics were able to rebuild, with some really lopsided trades, but they have tried hard and spent money, and they are signature franchises. Miami just isn’t in that group, although they will attract viewers. At least if LeBron had gone to New York, there would be a story. If he stayed, Cleveland was doing well with him there. I can’t imagine that David Stern is too happy about all his stars being in one place that doesn’t have great media ratings or fan support. I’m sure he liked all the attention this had been getting, but maybe he sees today how non-fans are turning on LeBron for his TV oversaturation and hating Miami as a whole. I don’t know. I think he would have liked more parity, or at least more stars spread out. It will be interesting to see how he responds.

In the end, I’m not feeling great about watching the league in the next few years. I like having the mystery of several teams that could win it. I don’t like having one dominant team and seeing if they win or not. I was always slightly disappointed that no one could knock off Jordan, I don’t like baseball as much because the Yankees-Red Sox pull is too much, and I was furious when the Kings couldn’t close the Lakers. There are some good young teams to watch like OKC and maybe the Clippers, but this is going to overshadow the whole league. If Miami had just gotten Bosh to go with Wade and spent that remaining money on several decent but not star level guys, and Lebron picked Cleveland / Chicago / New York / New Jersey, we would have a lively battle in the east next year with four really nice teams - Miami, LeBron’s team, Boston, and Orlando, with maybe Chicago (if he didn’t go there) also a possibility. Now it’s thinner at the top, and everyone else is going be losing hope.

I can only pray that more young stars will turn into superstars and give the league more balance, because with 30 teams to spread talent around, having 2 of the top 5 guys and 3 of the top 15 in one place is really nuts.

West preview, the upper

PHOENIX SUNS











For all the talk of the Shaq experiment failing, it wasn't really him. They never should have tried to stop pushing it and didn't have the defenders to try. They did fine with him in D'Antoni's offense. Terry Porter's worst crime was making Nash a secondary player. Why waste him like that?











So yes, now that it's over, I expect a much less stressful year for them. They shouldn't have any problem getting back in the playoffs this year. I don't have them as contenders, however, because of some key injury concerns. Nash and Stoudemire are always risks to go down, and they don't have key backups. I thought the Suns were going to draft a point guard, since there were so many this year, but they continue to leave Nash without a real sub. If he goes down, they're done. Amare is irreplaceable in the lineup, even if Robin Lopez progresses, because his scoring is unmatchable. Amare also has all the trade rumors and free agency issues to deal with, but he should still be fine if healthy. I don't think their rotation is that bad without Shaq - Channing Frye and Earl Clark may fit them nicely, and they're gonna go small a lot anyway. As I've said a million times, they should have kept some of those draft picks. They didn't, and now they have to hold their fingers.











Again, the conference is so that they shouldn't have any problems getting in the postseason, but I don't know if they go anywhere.











UTAH JAZZ











This team was considered so hot and so dangerous two or three years ago when they snuck into the conference finals. They had all these young big guys, Deron Williams, and a host of options. But they haven't really made a jump.











The problem here is that the pieces don't all fit. Boozer and Okur are great offensive big men but terrible defenders. They thought maybe Kirilenko would make up for that, but he doesn't really fit next to them. He doesn't really have a position they can use him for. They need shooters on the wing, but Korver (as I saw in Philly) should be a three man and a becnh player only. Giving him extended minutes at guard is going to kill them defensively. Ronnie Brewer is slowing coming along, but still needs to shoot better.











I expected them to make trades with Boozer and maybe Kirilenko to bring in a shooting forward, but it hasn't happened yet. Matt Harpring is still around, but who knows how much he has left. I like that they got a backup point in Maynor, but they have a weird roster. Why have they loaded up on young post players? They know Boozer will be gone soon, but what about everyone else?











I can't predict their season because it seems like they have a few moves up their sleeve. They need a scoring wing to really contend. They're still ultimately in good shape for the future, with Williams and thsoe young big guys.... and, again, they have the Knicks' pick next year (hold on AAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAH oh, Isiah HAHAHA) so they're fine. This season looks like it will be hard to predict, but I'm guessing they have a low playoff seed and try to fix the roster.











NEW ORLEANS HORNETS











After such a promising season in '08, last year ended in near disaster in the playoffs. Now, I'm not sure what to think. The Hornets seemed to be in financial hot water when they started trading away guys. Giving up my boy Rasual was tough. Almost giving up Tyson Chandler for cap relief would've been terrible. Trading him later for Emeka Okafor was puzzling in that it didn't seem to help either team, or give them financial relief. Finally, they brought on payroll to get Darius Songalia, which was an okay but not great move. I don't know. I really don't.











One of Okafor's problems in Charlotte was deciding if he was a 4 or 5. In the West, he may be a bit small for center. That could hurt, but it's not a big change. Losing Rasual Butler is going to kill them if Stojakovic is still hurting. His injury, and Chandler's, are what really killed them last season.











Despite the injury woes, the Hornets still won about 50 games and were playoff bound. They should be still, but some of these moves have confused me about the direction of this franchise. They need a lot more to contend, and who knows if money will be spent to do that.











PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS











After they finally broke through last year, the Team With Infinite Upside seems like a candidate to take the next step to contender. After all, they won 54 games and tied for the second-best record in the whole conference even though they had holes at point guard and lots of injuries. Now, they have Andre Miller and another year of experience. They should be awesome, right?









Something doesn't feel right to me here. Because they broke the 50 game mark easy, I won't doubt them to do it again. But their no-show in the playoffs suggests that they need more time. After acquiring so many interesting young guys, they may want to figure out which ones they want. Eventually, people are going to get pissed about playing time. Miller is a nice point, and he saved the Sixers many times over the past few years, but people are questioning his ability to play with Brandon Roy. I thought the plan was to have Roy be the main ball carrier and have Jerryd Bayless play off of him as a scorer. They barely used Bayless, who was once considered a top pick. They ought to trade him before other teams think something is up.









They also have a logjam at the three, although I'm guessing they will use Outlaw more as a backup big guy (see next point). They could just give time to Rudy, and have Batum as defensive specialist. They will need Outlaw at the 4 because there's no experienced backup there. I think they should be just a little worried that the only true big guys are Oden, Pryzbilla, and Aldridge. If they get any injuries, they'll be in trouble, and their centers haven't had a great history of health. They have Juwon Howard, but he's been around a long time. It would be smart of them to go small with all their guards, but Nate McMillan hasn't done that too much.









It wouldn't surprise me to see them win 55 or even 60 games, but I'm still not sold on them as a real threat to the Lakers until I see more.











DALLAS MAVERICKS











This is one of my favorite stories of the offseason - the Mavs reverting to their star-loading days of old. You may remember the early part of the decade, when they tried to load up with big name guys around Nowitzki, Finley, and Nash. They brought in Juwon Howard, Raef LaFrentz, Antoine Walker, Nick Van Exel, Antawn Jamison, and tried to create lineups with all stars and no role players or real centers. It didn't work well. Eventually, the Mavs did better and made the Finals with a bunch of supporting people around Nowitzki, including two true centers who cared about defense.









Now, they seem to be moving in the same old direction. After two years of slowing down, they brought in Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas, while not adding any post guys. They also lost key glue PF Brandon Bass. They can now throw out an interesting but small lineup of Nowitzki, Marion, Josh Howard, Terry, and Kidd. It's not so much different than those early lineups, although Kidd will not be a scorer, and that's good for him. They need to mix in role players like Quinton Ross and whatever big men they have left. Marcin Gortat would have been a nice help, but Orlando's trickiness got them.









Still, I think they can manage this a little better than they did last time. I like Kidd and Terry in the same backcourt, and I like Marion playing inside more to help Nowitzki. The only problem I can see is if Marion and Howard are too similar, but that's about it. I still think they need another big man, but if they can give minutes to defensive minded guys like Ross and Dampier with those scorers, maybe they will have enough shots to go around. I don't think they can compete with the Lakers without adding another big man, but they can be the second best team and hope for a lucky break if everything works right.







DENVER NUGGETS







No team made me look worse last year than the Nuggets. Coming off a season in which they only got the 8th seed in the playoffs, they basically dumped Marcus Camby for nothing, just to save money, and to make it seem like they needed overpaid and often injured post guys. It did not seem like a great idea (at least, on the court) for a team without much defense or post depth and lots of shooters to trade away its only quality big man / defender / rebounder. I thought it would kill them.







Miraculously, Kenyon Martin and Nene finally had some healthy seasons. K Mart found some of the old defense and rebounding that made him the first pick, while Nene finally showed the offensive skills that made him a high pick too. The Nuggs gambled on these guys because they knew they could never trade either of them, and they had to play them with all the money they were owed, and somehow it worked. They also got a big boost from Chris "Birdman" Andersen, completing the rotation.







Their other risky move was trading Iverson for Billups, which was a pretty easy deal in hindsight. Even though Iverson and Melo had both put up big numbers with each other, they never really gelled, and having a real outside shooter next to Melo (constantly getting double teamed) is ideal. It was hard for the Nuggets to put Melo, Iverson, and JR Smith on the court at the same time, and now they could load up on the perimeter. Add in some inspired play from Anthony Carter and Dahntay Jones, and Denver had a surprise run to the conference finals.







Denver's season was hailed as a matter or risks paying off, and everything coming together. Rightfully so. But now, it seems like everyone is writing them off. If everything that could go right did last year, what's the chance of it happening again? They won't get that luck or that teamwork again, many say. Many are also pointing out George Karl's history, how a lot of his successful teams have fallen apart. Indeed, he's a guy who always seems to wear on his guys eventually.







I don't doubt any of this, and I would never put money or anything of value on this team. I, too, can see it all falling apart. But since so many people are suspecting that they will fall back this year, I'll offer some ideas on why they might just stick around:







1. Melo made some big steps last year. He has so many ways to score right now, so he's not going to stop.







2. They figured out how to use Smith properly, even if it means benching him when he gets too wild.







3. Nene's health problems were weird and not something that suggests long term problems. K Mart is always a threat to go down, and his knees are shaky, but Nene looked fine. His improvement on offense is not something to overlook. He's got a nice post game, which makes him super valuable now.







4. They still haven't found a use for Linus Kleiza. He has a chance to contribute. I like him as a forward in a small lineup to space things out with more shooters. If K Mart does go down at some point, they could play him next to Melo and Birdman down low.







Sure, they could all get hurt, or mutiny, but I think they have just enough depth, including Ty Lawson, to keep things from really getting bad. I have them as one of the top 4 or 5 teams, and really, the only thing that keeps them down in the west order is how other teams have improved.



They can't knock off the Lakers without more big guys and depth, but it doesn't seem like they can add much now with their finances. Still, they're in the discussion of the next teams out west.







SAN ANTONIO SPURS







After a rare early exit, people were talking about the Spurs being too old. Were they? Or was it just that Ginobli was hurt? They did need another big guy, and maybe some depth. They responded with much more vigor than anyone expected, getting Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. Then they picked up a draft steal in DeJuan Blair and appear to be loaded again.







They are the number one threat to take down the Lakers.



LOS ANGELES LAKERS



The reigning champs were kind of a downer for me to watch people (suddenly) care in this town (and then just as suddenly disappear). It just didn't feel like they were properly tested. No one in the West could stick with them. After Yao went down, the Rockets, who were probably the most frisky team