West preview, the upper

PHOENIX SUNS











For all the talk of the Shaq experiment failing, it wasn't really him. They never should have tried to stop pushing it and didn't have the defenders to try. They did fine with him in D'Antoni's offense. Terry Porter's worst crime was making Nash a secondary player. Why waste him like that?











So yes, now that it's over, I expect a much less stressful year for them. They shouldn't have any problem getting back in the playoffs this year. I don't have them as contenders, however, because of some key injury concerns. Nash and Stoudemire are always risks to go down, and they don't have key backups. I thought the Suns were going to draft a point guard, since there were so many this year, but they continue to leave Nash without a real sub. If he goes down, they're done. Amare is irreplaceable in the lineup, even if Robin Lopez progresses, because his scoring is unmatchable. Amare also has all the trade rumors and free agency issues to deal with, but he should still be fine if healthy. I don't think their rotation is that bad without Shaq - Channing Frye and Earl Clark may fit them nicely, and they're gonna go small a lot anyway. As I've said a million times, they should have kept some of those draft picks. They didn't, and now they have to hold their fingers.











Again, the conference is so that they shouldn't have any problems getting in the postseason, but I don't know if they go anywhere.











UTAH JAZZ











This team was considered so hot and so dangerous two or three years ago when they snuck into the conference finals. They had all these young big guys, Deron Williams, and a host of options. But they haven't really made a jump.











The problem here is that the pieces don't all fit. Boozer and Okur are great offensive big men but terrible defenders. They thought maybe Kirilenko would make up for that, but he doesn't really fit next to them. He doesn't really have a position they can use him for. They need shooters on the wing, but Korver (as I saw in Philly) should be a three man and a becnh player only. Giving him extended minutes at guard is going to kill them defensively. Ronnie Brewer is slowing coming along, but still needs to shoot better.











I expected them to make trades with Boozer and maybe Kirilenko to bring in a shooting forward, but it hasn't happened yet. Matt Harpring is still around, but who knows how much he has left. I like that they got a backup point in Maynor, but they have a weird roster. Why have they loaded up on young post players? They know Boozer will be gone soon, but what about everyone else?











I can't predict their season because it seems like they have a few moves up their sleeve. They need a scoring wing to really contend. They're still ultimately in good shape for the future, with Williams and thsoe young big guys.... and, again, they have the Knicks' pick next year (hold on AAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAH oh, Isiah HAHAHA) so they're fine. This season looks like it will be hard to predict, but I'm guessing they have a low playoff seed and try to fix the roster.











NEW ORLEANS HORNETS











After such a promising season in '08, last year ended in near disaster in the playoffs. Now, I'm not sure what to think. The Hornets seemed to be in financial hot water when they started trading away guys. Giving up my boy Rasual was tough. Almost giving up Tyson Chandler for cap relief would've been terrible. Trading him later for Emeka Okafor was puzzling in that it didn't seem to help either team, or give them financial relief. Finally, they brought on payroll to get Darius Songalia, which was an okay but not great move. I don't know. I really don't.











One of Okafor's problems in Charlotte was deciding if he was a 4 or 5. In the West, he may be a bit small for center. That could hurt, but it's not a big change. Losing Rasual Butler is going to kill them if Stojakovic is still hurting. His injury, and Chandler's, are what really killed them last season.











Despite the injury woes, the Hornets still won about 50 games and were playoff bound. They should be still, but some of these moves have confused me about the direction of this franchise. They need a lot more to contend, and who knows if money will be spent to do that.











PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS











After they finally broke through last year, the Team With Infinite Upside seems like a candidate to take the next step to contender. After all, they won 54 games and tied for the second-best record in the whole conference even though they had holes at point guard and lots of injuries. Now, they have Andre Miller and another year of experience. They should be awesome, right?









Something doesn't feel right to me here. Because they broke the 50 game mark easy, I won't doubt them to do it again. But their no-show in the playoffs suggests that they need more time. After acquiring so many interesting young guys, they may want to figure out which ones they want. Eventually, people are going to get pissed about playing time. Miller is a nice point, and he saved the Sixers many times over the past few years, but people are questioning his ability to play with Brandon Roy. I thought the plan was to have Roy be the main ball carrier and have Jerryd Bayless play off of him as a scorer. They barely used Bayless, who was once considered a top pick. They ought to trade him before other teams think something is up.









They also have a logjam at the three, although I'm guessing they will use Outlaw more as a backup big guy (see next point). They could just give time to Rudy, and have Batum as defensive specialist. They will need Outlaw at the 4 because there's no experienced backup there. I think they should be just a little worried that the only true big guys are Oden, Pryzbilla, and Aldridge. If they get any injuries, they'll be in trouble, and their centers haven't had a great history of health. They have Juwon Howard, but he's been around a long time. It would be smart of them to go small with all their guards, but Nate McMillan hasn't done that too much.









It wouldn't surprise me to see them win 55 or even 60 games, but I'm still not sold on them as a real threat to the Lakers until I see more.











DALLAS MAVERICKS











This is one of my favorite stories of the offseason - the Mavs reverting to their star-loading days of old. You may remember the early part of the decade, when they tried to load up with big name guys around Nowitzki, Finley, and Nash. They brought in Juwon Howard, Raef LaFrentz, Antoine Walker, Nick Van Exel, Antawn Jamison, and tried to create lineups with all stars and no role players or real centers. It didn't work well. Eventually, the Mavs did better and made the Finals with a bunch of supporting people around Nowitzki, including two true centers who cared about defense.









Now, they seem to be moving in the same old direction. After two years of slowing down, they brought in Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas, while not adding any post guys. They also lost key glue PF Brandon Bass. They can now throw out an interesting but small lineup of Nowitzki, Marion, Josh Howard, Terry, and Kidd. It's not so much different than those early lineups, although Kidd will not be a scorer, and that's good for him. They need to mix in role players like Quinton Ross and whatever big men they have left. Marcin Gortat would have been a nice help, but Orlando's trickiness got them.









Still, I think they can manage this a little better than they did last time. I like Kidd and Terry in the same backcourt, and I like Marion playing inside more to help Nowitzki. The only problem I can see is if Marion and Howard are too similar, but that's about it. I still think they need another big man, but if they can give minutes to defensive minded guys like Ross and Dampier with those scorers, maybe they will have enough shots to go around. I don't think they can compete with the Lakers without adding another big man, but they can be the second best team and hope for a lucky break if everything works right.







DENVER NUGGETS







No team made me look worse last year than the Nuggets. Coming off a season in which they only got the 8th seed in the playoffs, they basically dumped Marcus Camby for nothing, just to save money, and to make it seem like they needed overpaid and often injured post guys. It did not seem like a great idea (at least, on the court) for a team without much defense or post depth and lots of shooters to trade away its only quality big man / defender / rebounder. I thought it would kill them.







Miraculously, Kenyon Martin and Nene finally had some healthy seasons. K Mart found some of the old defense and rebounding that made him the first pick, while Nene finally showed the offensive skills that made him a high pick too. The Nuggs gambled on these guys because they knew they could never trade either of them, and they had to play them with all the money they were owed, and somehow it worked. They also got a big boost from Chris "Birdman" Andersen, completing the rotation.







Their other risky move was trading Iverson for Billups, which was a pretty easy deal in hindsight. Even though Iverson and Melo had both put up big numbers with each other, they never really gelled, and having a real outside shooter next to Melo (constantly getting double teamed) is ideal. It was hard for the Nuggets to put Melo, Iverson, and JR Smith on the court at the same time, and now they could load up on the perimeter. Add in some inspired play from Anthony Carter and Dahntay Jones, and Denver had a surprise run to the conference finals.







Denver's season was hailed as a matter or risks paying off, and everything coming together. Rightfully so. But now, it seems like everyone is writing them off. If everything that could go right did last year, what's the chance of it happening again? They won't get that luck or that teamwork again, many say. Many are also pointing out George Karl's history, how a lot of his successful teams have fallen apart. Indeed, he's a guy who always seems to wear on his guys eventually.







I don't doubt any of this, and I would never put money or anything of value on this team. I, too, can see it all falling apart. But since so many people are suspecting that they will fall back this year, I'll offer some ideas on why they might just stick around:







1. Melo made some big steps last year. He has so many ways to score right now, so he's not going to stop.







2. They figured out how to use Smith properly, even if it means benching him when he gets too wild.







3. Nene's health problems were weird and not something that suggests long term problems. K Mart is always a threat to go down, and his knees are shaky, but Nene looked fine. His improvement on offense is not something to overlook. He's got a nice post game, which makes him super valuable now.







4. They still haven't found a use for Linus Kleiza. He has a chance to contribute. I like him as a forward in a small lineup to space things out with more shooters. If K Mart does go down at some point, they could play him next to Melo and Birdman down low.







Sure, they could all get hurt, or mutiny, but I think they have just enough depth, including Ty Lawson, to keep things from really getting bad. I have them as one of the top 4 or 5 teams, and really, the only thing that keeps them down in the west order is how other teams have improved.



They can't knock off the Lakers without more big guys and depth, but it doesn't seem like they can add much now with their finances. Still, they're in the discussion of the next teams out west.







SAN ANTONIO SPURS







After a rare early exit, people were talking about the Spurs being too old. Were they? Or was it just that Ginobli was hurt? They did need another big guy, and maybe some depth. They responded with much more vigor than anyone expected, getting Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. Then they picked up a draft steal in DeJuan Blair and appear to be loaded again.







They are the number one threat to take down the Lakers.



LOS ANGELES LAKERS



The reigning champs were kind of a downer for me to watch people (suddenly) care in this town (and then just as suddenly disappear). It just didn't feel like they were properly tested. No one in the West could stick with them. After Yao went down, the Rockets, who were probably the most frisky team