Season projections, based on current standings:
EAST
1. Boston, 67 wins
2. Detroit, 61
3. Orlando, 50
4. Cleveland, 46
5. Toronto, 45
6. Washington, 39
7. New Jersey, 36
8. PHILLY ???!?!, 36
9. Atlanta, 35
(Chicago and Indiana are a few behind)
WEST
1. New Orleans, 58
2. Phoenix, 57
3. LA Lakers, 55
4. Utah, 52 (for divison leader)
5. San Antonio, 54
6. Dallas, 54
7,8,9. three way tie:
Golden State
Houston
Denver, all 50
10. Portland, 44
........................
Crazy, huh?
I don't expect all this to last, and I don't want to make any more predictions before the trade deadline next week (still waiting about the nutty Jersey-Dallas situation), but has it really gotten so bad that 50 wins is needed just to make the playoffs in the West, while the Sixers can sneak in? Can I even be proud of them if they make it with like 35 wins?
What a strange break. I need some time to think about what's going on.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
rats off to ya...?
I was waiting for the break but a flurry of activity forced me to respond.
Rats off to ya, people. Congrats and jeers around:
ALL STAR PICKS: The Eastern Conference picked everyone I did, so I guess I can't argue with them. That's got to be a first.
Out west, I was surprised only by David West making it. I know the Hornets are doing great, better than expected, and the game is in New Orleans, where they are trying desperately to promote everything basketball.... but still, I didn't even have him on my short list. To see him and Brandon Roy make it over Baron Davis, who has reinvented himself and kept Golden State going this season, is awful. Not that those two don't deserve it; they're doing good. But BD has been great and he might not get many more chances.
That's my only real gripe this year... but if someone goes out, as likely, he should be the first one in.
GASOL TO THE LAKERS
This is causing a frenzy out here. I'm still not sure how this happened. Memphis was talking to Chicago and Boston last year about moving Gasol for some decent players... and now they get a point guard they don't need and draft picks... and nothing else???
I've had it with Memphis's ownership. They had a 50 win team and did nothing. They gave Gasol good money for what he did and then complained he was too expensive.
That team needs to go. If they don't want to compete, send everyone home and fold the franchise. Don't move them to another city; we're running out of places. Chuck them and go back to the old system of 4 divisions.
As for the Lakers, I was a little surprised that they would make a deal for a big man after Andrew Bynum came through.... but then again, how could they say no? They would have had to surrender Bynum to get Kidd, or KG, or even Jermaine O'Neal, and now they get a pretty good big man without giving him up - or Lamar Odom. Amazing. Again, was this really the best Memphis could do? Or just the cheapest?
I thought maybe this would hold Bynum back a little, but then again, he's still learning on offense. Gasol can handle that and help rebounding. Gasol is also, I hear, more comfortable not having to bang as much, and he's a good apsser, so I think he'll fit into the triangle. It will be interesting to see if he and Odom can handle not being the first or second options all the time. If they can all mesh, that might be the scariest front line in the league, and soon.
Rats off to ya, Mitch. You made me look stupid this year.
SHAQ TO THE SUNS
[ahem]
Dear Robert Sarver,
you could have just kept Kurt Thomas.
Yours,
J. "Shawn Bradley will never die" L.
Miami has to be thrilled to get someone decent for Shaq. Marion will have an easier time in the East and can wreck people. They can go small with him and Haslem down low until they find a new center.
I don't necessarily hate this move for Phoenix, because they've always wanted a real big man who can help. But is that Shaq? Now? They need defense and shot blocking.... he can knock people over..... umm......
They knew they were going to dump Marion shortly, but they've pretty much closed the window on any long term plans. Nash, Shaq, and Raja all have 3 years and then they're probably gone. Amare and Barbosa have one more after that to see if Phoenix can regroup. So, this probably did add a sense of urgency, but will it work? Can these styles mesh?
Last month, I predicted that the Mvas might have won a title if they kept Nash and traded Dirk for Shaq. That, however, was Shaq three years ago. I think he could be a nice help, especially since he's not the first option. He could also ruin their offensive chemistry. We'll see.
Rats off to you, Riles. And Steve Kerr, for having some guts (though, again, I'd rather have Marion, Banks, and Kurt Thomas, despite the extra cash). I expect Miami to see if Banks and Earl Barron can do anything. They've got time.
Now for Jason Kidd.......
Rats off to ya, people. Congrats and jeers around:
ALL STAR PICKS: The Eastern Conference picked everyone I did, so I guess I can't argue with them. That's got to be a first.
Out west, I was surprised only by David West making it. I know the Hornets are doing great, better than expected, and the game is in New Orleans, where they are trying desperately to promote everything basketball.... but still, I didn't even have him on my short list. To see him and Brandon Roy make it over Baron Davis, who has reinvented himself and kept Golden State going this season, is awful. Not that those two don't deserve it; they're doing good. But BD has been great and he might not get many more chances.
That's my only real gripe this year... but if someone goes out, as likely, he should be the first one in.
GASOL TO THE LAKERS
This is causing a frenzy out here. I'm still not sure how this happened. Memphis was talking to Chicago and Boston last year about moving Gasol for some decent players... and now they get a point guard they don't need and draft picks... and nothing else???
I've had it with Memphis's ownership. They had a 50 win team and did nothing. They gave Gasol good money for what he did and then complained he was too expensive.
That team needs to go. If they don't want to compete, send everyone home and fold the franchise. Don't move them to another city; we're running out of places. Chuck them and go back to the old system of 4 divisions.
As for the Lakers, I was a little surprised that they would make a deal for a big man after Andrew Bynum came through.... but then again, how could they say no? They would have had to surrender Bynum to get Kidd, or KG, or even Jermaine O'Neal, and now they get a pretty good big man without giving him up - or Lamar Odom. Amazing. Again, was this really the best Memphis could do? Or just the cheapest?
I thought maybe this would hold Bynum back a little, but then again, he's still learning on offense. Gasol can handle that and help rebounding. Gasol is also, I hear, more comfortable not having to bang as much, and he's a good apsser, so I think he'll fit into the triangle. It will be interesting to see if he and Odom can handle not being the first or second options all the time. If they can all mesh, that might be the scariest front line in the league, and soon.
Rats off to ya, Mitch. You made me look stupid this year.
SHAQ TO THE SUNS
[ahem]
Dear Robert Sarver,
you could have just kept Kurt Thomas.
Yours,
J. "Shawn Bradley will never die" L.
Miami has to be thrilled to get someone decent for Shaq. Marion will have an easier time in the East and can wreck people. They can go small with him and Haslem down low until they find a new center.
I don't necessarily hate this move for Phoenix, because they've always wanted a real big man who can help. But is that Shaq? Now? They need defense and shot blocking.... he can knock people over..... umm......
They knew they were going to dump Marion shortly, but they've pretty much closed the window on any long term plans. Nash, Shaq, and Raja all have 3 years and then they're probably gone. Amare and Barbosa have one more after that to see if Phoenix can regroup. So, this probably did add a sense of urgency, but will it work? Can these styles mesh?
Last month, I predicted that the Mvas might have won a title if they kept Nash and traded Dirk for Shaq. That, however, was Shaq three years ago. I think he could be a nice help, especially since he's not the first option. He could also ruin their offensive chemistry. We'll see.
Rats off to you, Riles. And Steve Kerr, for having some guts (though, again, I'd rather have Marion, Banks, and Kurt Thomas, despite the extra cash). I expect Miami to see if Banks and Earl Barron can do anything. They've got time.
Now for Jason Kidd.......
Monday, January 28, 2008
january jonesin
With the midseason divide almost here, I look back and realize I haven't been updating that much. Work, work, work. I'll try to have something before the all-star break.
First, my all star picks:
STARTERS
EAST: Garnett, LeBron, D Howard, Wade, Billups
WEST: Dirk, Duncan, Boozer, C Paul, Kobe
BENCH
EAST: Caron Butler, Pierce, Bosh, Kidd, Rip, Joe Johnson, and ... who? I don't have a seventh guy. Seriously, no one stands out. Jamison, Josh Smith, Rich Jefferson, Redd, and Ray Allen could all make a case. I guess I like Jamison to give us some size... the Wizards are doing good without Arenas and that's worth something.
WEST: Melo, Yao, Baron, Nash, Iverson.... and I suppose Amare.... and a tie between Ginobli and B Roy. I felt like I missed a guard there... there are four guys under 6-3 there.... no, I'm good. I made that tie. I think we should let the west team have 13 and the east only 11. That's fair this year.
I want to see these people in the rookie game: Roy and Alrdidge; Durant and Jeff Green; Horford; Jamario Moon (great sleeper); Navarro and Rudy Gay; Corey Brewer; Yi; and ummm..... where are the second year guys? Bargnani is hurting but he's probably still in the top ten. 2006 is lacking for now.
Random trade ideas: I tried to figure out a deal for Kidd to Dallas for Devin Harris and other players, but that can't work because Dallas doesn't have many tradable guys. They could give up Erick Dampier, but that actually makes Jersey's cap worse. All of their expensive guys are too important or have too long contracts. Who knew Cuban could put himself in a spot where he couldn't make deals? Even a third team wouldn't help that much - Dallas just has nowhere to go with a big deal.
Kidd to Sacto, Bibby to Cleveland, and draft picks to Jersey? I figured out a way to make it work. But then Jersey doesn't get much for now, and they'd have cap relief in two years anyway when Kidd leaves.... and Kidd goes to the Kings, who might be near his hometown, but aren't a real contender. I doubt that he wants to go there.... so we're back to square one.
Maybe they can get involved with Dallas (Dallas gets Kidd, Jersey gets Harris, Cleveland gets Bibby, Sacto gets.... ummm.... )
Okay:
Sacto gets cap space and draft picks, mostly.... Jersey gets Harris, Dallas gets Kidd, Cleveland gets Bibby, and a lot of people are involved. This trade is contingent on some behind-the-scenes handshakes:
1. Dallas promises to New Jersey that if they accept Dampier now, they will trade for him over the summer with contracts that expire. So the Nets will have cap space heading into Brooklyn.
2. Sacto will cut Jerry Stackhouse, once acquired, so he can go back to the Mavericks. Cuban will send the Maloofs some cash and many draft picks for taking on his contract.
Dallas receives: Jason Kidd, Mikki Moore, Damon Jones (the latter two will be shipped to Jersey after the season is over to get back Dampier)
Cleveland receives: Mike Bibby, Eddie Jones (they might cut him)
New Jersey receives: Devin Harris, Nick Fazekas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Devean George, and the-merely-for-rental Erick Dampier.... besides, Harris all those guys (and the two they'll get for Dampier later) have contracts that are up soon.
Sacramento receives: Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, Jamal Magliorre, Ira Newble, Dwayne Jones, and Jerry Stackhouse (who will have something worked out)... plus draft picks from Cleveland and Dallas
Sacramento Kings
Incoming Players
Cedric Simmons Salary: $1,629,120 Years Remaining: 2
Shannon Brown Salary: $1,044,120 Years Remaining: 1
Jamaal Magloire Salary: $4,000,000 Years Remaining: 1
Ira Newble Salary: $3,441,900 Years Remaining: 1
Jerry Stackhouse Salary: $6,750,000 Years Remaining: 3
Dwayne Jones Salary: $770,610 Years Remaining: 1
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Nick Fazekas Salary: $427,163 Years Remaining: 2
Shareef Abdur-Rahim Salary: $5,800,000 Years Remaining: 3
Devean George Salary: $2,369,111 Years Remaining: 1
Erick Dampier Salary: $10,590,500 Years Remaining: 4
Devin Harris Salary: $3,995,003 Years Remaining: 6
Outgoing Players: Jamaal Magloire, Jason Kidd
Dallas Mavericks
Incoming Players
Mikki Moore Salary: $5,356,000 Years Remaining: 2
Damon Jones Salary: $4,172,432 Years Remaining: 2
Jason Kidd Salary: $19,728,000 Years Remaining: 2
Outgoing Players: Nick Fazekas, Devean George, Erick Dampier, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers
Incoming Players
Mike Bibby Salary: $13,500,000 Years Remaining: 2
Eddie Jones Salary: $1,830,000 Years Remaining: 1
Players: Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, Damon Jones, Ira Newble, Dwayne Jones
I think this might work. Obviously the Kings might want more for Bibby, like Drew Gooden or another forward.... but they still don't know what to do with Artest, and this gives them some financial flexibility. Simmons and Brown might do more with time. And they'll get lots of draft picks, so in this draft, they can probably find a good point guard and work from there.
This is contingent on a lot of secret deals, but that seems to help teams out sometimes. Because of all the craziness involved, I'd say it has about a 0.0003 % chance of happening.
But you have to admire that I came up with a four team deal that worked.
First, my all star picks:
STARTERS
EAST: Garnett, LeBron, D Howard, Wade, Billups
WEST: Dirk, Duncan, Boozer, C Paul, Kobe
BENCH
EAST: Caron Butler, Pierce, Bosh, Kidd, Rip, Joe Johnson, and ... who? I don't have a seventh guy. Seriously, no one stands out. Jamison, Josh Smith, Rich Jefferson, Redd, and Ray Allen could all make a case. I guess I like Jamison to give us some size... the Wizards are doing good without Arenas and that's worth something.
WEST: Melo, Yao, Baron, Nash, Iverson.... and I suppose Amare.... and a tie between Ginobli and B Roy. I felt like I missed a guard there... there are four guys under 6-3 there.... no, I'm good. I made that tie. I think we should let the west team have 13 and the east only 11. That's fair this year.
I want to see these people in the rookie game: Roy and Alrdidge; Durant and Jeff Green; Horford; Jamario Moon (great sleeper); Navarro and Rudy Gay; Corey Brewer; Yi; and ummm..... where are the second year guys? Bargnani is hurting but he's probably still in the top ten. 2006 is lacking for now.
Random trade ideas: I tried to figure out a deal for Kidd to Dallas for Devin Harris and other players, but that can't work because Dallas doesn't have many tradable guys. They could give up Erick Dampier, but that actually makes Jersey's cap worse. All of their expensive guys are too important or have too long contracts. Who knew Cuban could put himself in a spot where he couldn't make deals? Even a third team wouldn't help that much - Dallas just has nowhere to go with a big deal.
Kidd to Sacto, Bibby to Cleveland, and draft picks to Jersey? I figured out a way to make it work. But then Jersey doesn't get much for now, and they'd have cap relief in two years anyway when Kidd leaves.... and Kidd goes to the Kings, who might be near his hometown, but aren't a real contender. I doubt that he wants to go there.... so we're back to square one.
Maybe they can get involved with Dallas (Dallas gets Kidd, Jersey gets Harris, Cleveland gets Bibby, Sacto gets.... ummm.... )
Okay:
Sacto gets cap space and draft picks, mostly.... Jersey gets Harris, Dallas gets Kidd, Cleveland gets Bibby, and a lot of people are involved. This trade is contingent on some behind-the-scenes handshakes:
1. Dallas promises to New Jersey that if they accept Dampier now, they will trade for him over the summer with contracts that expire. So the Nets will have cap space heading into Brooklyn.
2. Sacto will cut Jerry Stackhouse, once acquired, so he can go back to the Mavericks. Cuban will send the Maloofs some cash and many draft picks for taking on his contract.
Dallas receives: Jason Kidd, Mikki Moore, Damon Jones (the latter two will be shipped to Jersey after the season is over to get back Dampier)
Cleveland receives: Mike Bibby, Eddie Jones (they might cut him)
New Jersey receives: Devin Harris, Nick Fazekas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Devean George, and the-merely-for-rental Erick Dampier.... besides, Harris all those guys (and the two they'll get for Dampier later) have contracts that are up soon.
Sacramento receives: Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, Jamal Magliorre, Ira Newble, Dwayne Jones, and Jerry Stackhouse (who will have something worked out)... plus draft picks from Cleveland and Dallas
Sacramento Kings
Incoming Players
Cedric Simmons Salary: $1,629,120 Years Remaining: 2
Shannon Brown Salary: $1,044,120 Years Remaining: 1
Jamaal Magloire Salary: $4,000,000 Years Remaining: 1
Ira Newble Salary: $3,441,900 Years Remaining: 1
Jerry Stackhouse Salary: $6,750,000 Years Remaining: 3
Dwayne Jones Salary: $770,610 Years Remaining: 1
New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players
Nick Fazekas Salary: $427,163 Years Remaining: 2
Shareef Abdur-Rahim Salary: $5,800,000 Years Remaining: 3
Devean George Salary: $2,369,111 Years Remaining: 1
Erick Dampier Salary: $10,590,500 Years Remaining: 4
Devin Harris Salary: $3,995,003 Years Remaining: 6
Outgoing Players: Jamaal Magloire, Jason Kidd
Dallas Mavericks
Incoming Players
Mikki Moore Salary: $5,356,000 Years Remaining: 2
Damon Jones Salary: $4,172,432 Years Remaining: 2
Jason Kidd Salary: $19,728,000 Years Remaining: 2
Outgoing Players: Nick Fazekas, Devean George, Erick Dampier, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers
Incoming Players
Mike Bibby Salary: $13,500,000 Years Remaining: 2
Eddie Jones Salary: $1,830,000 Years Remaining: 1
Players: Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, Damon Jones, Ira Newble, Dwayne Jones
I think this might work. Obviously the Kings might want more for Bibby, like Drew Gooden or another forward.... but they still don't know what to do with Artest, and this gives them some financial flexibility. Simmons and Brown might do more with time. And they'll get lots of draft picks, so in this draft, they can probably find a good point guard and work from there.
This is contingent on a lot of secret deals, but that seems to help teams out sometimes. Because of all the craziness involved, I'd say it has about a 0.0003 % chance of happening.
But you have to admire that I came up with a four team deal that worked.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
just imagine...
The latest news out of LA is that Kobe is happy. Bo-ring. I guess the Lakers are happy they didn't trade Bynum, although I think they'd still be way better off with Garnett. Jermaine O'Neal, I'm not so sure about anymore. His health really is troubling.
Anyway, I was just thinking about the old Lakers-Mavs trade talks, which are dead right now, and I stumbled onto this old article in Sports Illustrated from a couple of years ago during the Shaq trade talks. Remember what they were considering? They had offers from a number of places, but went with Miami.... which gave them Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, and Brian Grant... and of course, Grant did nothing and they traded Butler for Kwame. Now they have Odom, who isn't a top tier guy, and Kwame, who is on his way out.
Yeowch.
One of the possibilities they were throwing around in that article was a trade to Dallas, but they never pursued it. Apparently, they were reluctant to trade within their own conference, they didn't like Dallas and thought they were a rival, etc. Sound familiar? They said the same thing this summer with Kobe, but they listened to offers from Dallas. They should have done that then.
This summer, Dallas was wondering if there was a way they could get Kobe without giving up Dirk. There wasn't, and I can't see how they could make a deal with the parts they have. But imagine if they would have traded Dirk straight up for Shaq three years ago?
Oh, how history would have changed.
Let's imagine that Dallas and the Lakers pulled this off, say, because Mitch Kupchak realized in this parallel universe that you should get at least one true all star for a former MVP and one of the best big man in the game.... is that too much to ask? The Lakers would have Dirk and Kobe together. They might have clashed egos, but I think it would have worked because Kobe would be seen as the true leader of the team, and Dirk would have to be the second guy. I mean, Dallas won 67 games with Dirk as their only major star, and the Lakers made the playoffs twice with just Kobe.... I think the two of them on one team would always win 50 games.
Now, it's hard to speculate, because this would have changed so much and created a dynamic series of events that would change the league forever. But I think there would be some counter moves with this.
For example, I think Dallas would have changed direction with Dirk gone and Shaq in. They decided to go for some younger guys and build the team around Dirk that summer. They dumped Antawn Jamison to get Devin Harris in the draft, they let Steve Nash go without too much of a fight, and they traded Antoine Walker for Jason Terry. It worked eventually, giving them a good team for the past 3 years, and almost a title.
But let's say they traded Dirk and say, Marquis Daniels, for Shaq. I think they'd keep Nash and Jamison, seeing the shorter window of opportunity with the big fella around. They'd have more urgency, knowing he and Nash were old. Funny, those two were the MVP candidates the year afterwards with different teams in real life. Can you imagine them on the same team? I think a lineup of Shaq, Jamison, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, and Nash, with Terry (I think they'd still make that trade, worried about Nash's health.. plus 'Toine never fit in there....) and maybe DeSanga Diop coming off the bench would be dynamite. Shaq plus good outside shooters and decent role players? Jamison's numbers would not have been as high but he and Howard could be a nice frontcourt duo to help Shaq. Nash and Terry raining threes is scary. If Dallas could beat San Antonio and nearly win a title two years ago with their rag-tag team, couldn't they do it now??? I think so.
Besides, having Shaq and Nash on Dallas would kill other teams. So long, Miami! They wouldn't have won a title, obviously. They were, before getting Shaq, a very fun team that could probably have been within the top three or four of the East... but not a contender. So long, Phoenix! Here, their rebirth under Nash never happened. Dallas would have unknowingly knocked out two major powers from ever being created. The toughest competition they would ever face would be San Antonio and Detroit. I think they could win at least one title in that span. They almost did, with no post players, and now they wouldn't have to worry about Miami.
This would cause a lot of other changes around the league. Washington would not get Jamison or Butler to complement Arenas. Phoenix would have done something different at the point, and that would have changed things, and who knows if they would ever have the success they have with Nash.
Ironically, maybe Kupchak did have a point. He didn't want to see Shaq stay in the conference and win titles, and he probably would have. But then, the Suns would never have gotten great, and the Lakers would own their division, most likely, for a long time. Did he expect that? Who did? Who knew Nash was going to take them to 60 wins every year?
Maybe it's for the best; how things really worked out. I love watching Phoenix and I think their style has been a boom for the league. Miami with Shaq made the East much more interesting and gave Detroit a real threat. Dallas did well anyway, and Nowitzki is well above Shaq right now. But they could have had a title. Probably.
I just wonder if Kupchak ever thinks about having Dirk right now instead of Odom and Kwame. That's got to be a depressing thought in his head, isn't it? I wonder if he imagines a world with Shaq fading out, no Phoenix to worry about, and Kobe and Dirk together (maybe with Andrew Bynum, but they might not have been able to draft him then).
I think it must be hard for the man.
---------------------
Quick analysis on a trade that DID happen: Charlotte sending Primoz Breznec and Walter Hermann to Detroit for Nazr Mohammed.
I wanted Detroit to use Nazr or trade him quickly, and they managed to do the latter. They get two guys who can help in spurts. Hermann came on strong late last year, but hasn't done much recently. He might be a good addition to Detroit's bench, which seems to be deeper than ever. Mohammed is a true center that Charlotte does not have. He'll help off the bench or even starting for a little bit. Breznec is another big guy Detroit can throw out there. They seem to have a hard time deciding how their post rotation goes.
I like this trade for both teams, I think, but then I heard that Detroit is trying to clear space so they can finally re-sign Chris Webber. They just gave up one guy for two, so that's not helping. They cut Ron Dupree, but doesn't that just make them even? Stay tuned on that one.
Anyway, I was just thinking about the old Lakers-Mavs trade talks, which are dead right now, and I stumbled onto this old article in Sports Illustrated from a couple of years ago during the Shaq trade talks. Remember what they were considering? They had offers from a number of places, but went with Miami.... which gave them Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, and Brian Grant... and of course, Grant did nothing and they traded Butler for Kwame. Now they have Odom, who isn't a top tier guy, and Kwame, who is on his way out.
Yeowch.
One of the possibilities they were throwing around in that article was a trade to Dallas, but they never pursued it. Apparently, they were reluctant to trade within their own conference, they didn't like Dallas and thought they were a rival, etc. Sound familiar? They said the same thing this summer with Kobe, but they listened to offers from Dallas. They should have done that then.
This summer, Dallas was wondering if there was a way they could get Kobe without giving up Dirk. There wasn't, and I can't see how they could make a deal with the parts they have. But imagine if they would have traded Dirk straight up for Shaq three years ago?
Oh, how history would have changed.
Let's imagine that Dallas and the Lakers pulled this off, say, because Mitch Kupchak realized in this parallel universe that you should get at least one true all star for a former MVP and one of the best big man in the game.... is that too much to ask? The Lakers would have Dirk and Kobe together. They might have clashed egos, but I think it would have worked because Kobe would be seen as the true leader of the team, and Dirk would have to be the second guy. I mean, Dallas won 67 games with Dirk as their only major star, and the Lakers made the playoffs twice with just Kobe.... I think the two of them on one team would always win 50 games.
Now, it's hard to speculate, because this would have changed so much and created a dynamic series of events that would change the league forever. But I think there would be some counter moves with this.
For example, I think Dallas would have changed direction with Dirk gone and Shaq in. They decided to go for some younger guys and build the team around Dirk that summer. They dumped Antawn Jamison to get Devin Harris in the draft, they let Steve Nash go without too much of a fight, and they traded Antoine Walker for Jason Terry. It worked eventually, giving them a good team for the past 3 years, and almost a title.
But let's say they traded Dirk and say, Marquis Daniels, for Shaq. I think they'd keep Nash and Jamison, seeing the shorter window of opportunity with the big fella around. They'd have more urgency, knowing he and Nash were old. Funny, those two were the MVP candidates the year afterwards with different teams in real life. Can you imagine them on the same team? I think a lineup of Shaq, Jamison, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, and Nash, with Terry (I think they'd still make that trade, worried about Nash's health.. plus 'Toine never fit in there....) and maybe DeSanga Diop coming off the bench would be dynamite. Shaq plus good outside shooters and decent role players? Jamison's numbers would not have been as high but he and Howard could be a nice frontcourt duo to help Shaq. Nash and Terry raining threes is scary. If Dallas could beat San Antonio and nearly win a title two years ago with their rag-tag team, couldn't they do it now??? I think so.
Besides, having Shaq and Nash on Dallas would kill other teams. So long, Miami! They wouldn't have won a title, obviously. They were, before getting Shaq, a very fun team that could probably have been within the top three or four of the East... but not a contender. So long, Phoenix! Here, their rebirth under Nash never happened. Dallas would have unknowingly knocked out two major powers from ever being created. The toughest competition they would ever face would be San Antonio and Detroit. I think they could win at least one title in that span. They almost did, with no post players, and now they wouldn't have to worry about Miami.
This would cause a lot of other changes around the league. Washington would not get Jamison or Butler to complement Arenas. Phoenix would have done something different at the point, and that would have changed things, and who knows if they would ever have the success they have with Nash.
Ironically, maybe Kupchak did have a point. He didn't want to see Shaq stay in the conference and win titles, and he probably would have. But then, the Suns would never have gotten great, and the Lakers would own their division, most likely, for a long time. Did he expect that? Who did? Who knew Nash was going to take them to 60 wins every year?
Maybe it's for the best; how things really worked out. I love watching Phoenix and I think their style has been a boom for the league. Miami with Shaq made the East much more interesting and gave Detroit a real threat. Dallas did well anyway, and Nowitzki is well above Shaq right now. But they could have had a title. Probably.
I just wonder if Kupchak ever thinks about having Dirk right now instead of Odom and Kwame. That's got to be a depressing thought in his head, isn't it? I wonder if he imagines a world with Shaq fading out, no Phoenix to worry about, and Kobe and Dirk together (maybe with Andrew Bynum, but they might not have been able to draft him then).
I think it must be hard for the man.
---------------------
Quick analysis on a trade that DID happen: Charlotte sending Primoz Breznec and Walter Hermann to Detroit for Nazr Mohammed.
I wanted Detroit to use Nazr or trade him quickly, and they managed to do the latter. They get two guys who can help in spurts. Hermann came on strong late last year, but hasn't done much recently. He might be a good addition to Detroit's bench, which seems to be deeper than ever. Mohammed is a true center that Charlotte does not have. He'll help off the bench or even starting for a little bit. Breznec is another big guy Detroit can throw out there. They seem to have a hard time deciding how their post rotation goes.
I like this trade for both teams, I think, but then I heard that Detroit is trying to clear space so they can finally re-sign Chris Webber. They just gave up one guy for two, so that's not helping. They cut Ron Dupree, but doesn't that just make them even? Stay tuned on that one.
Friday, December 7, 2007
sorry, billy
Billy King is gone. FINALLY!
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Sorry, Billy. You were a nice guy and all, but this is a business.
And you, sir, were killing the business. Godspeed.
[Memo to Ed Stefanski: Umm... I don't have any advice now. I wish you guys got a star last year. But from what I hear, you're smart and know Philly. That's a start.]
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Sorry, Billy. You were a nice guy and all, but this is a business.
And you, sir, were killing the business. Godspeed.
[Memo to Ed Stefanski: Umm... I don't have any advice now. I wish you guys got a star last year. But from what I hear, you're smart and know Philly. That's a start.]
Monday, December 3, 2007
Throwvember Report '07
After one month in the tank, some quick thoughts on the season:
-- Boston is good, and deep enough for now.... and I expect them to add people later.
-- Don't the Bulls HAVE to make some moves now?
-- I like the Orlando / Lakers trade. LA needed to deal Cook or Radman, and Orlando suddenly wasn't using Ariza at all. Cook can play the 4 but spread things out for Howard, which seems to be working out for them. Ariza is a nice bench wing with size, which will eventually help the Lakers if they deal Odom (which they need to). Evans will add to Orlando's rotating back court. This was a small but very nice move.
-- Speaking of Orlando, Dwight Howard is on my shortlist for MVP this year with LeBron and Duncan. He's been phenomenal. Just carrying them.
-- Yi came out stronger than we thought, and Milwaukee is doing better, but do they look any different? Strange.
-- Nawlins looks nice when everyone's healthy. I hope so. I'm pulling for them, for 'Sual, and Chris Paul needs to be an all-star (especially this year when it's there).
--Philly sucks, but at least the Knicks suck worse at a higher price. I can always fall back on that. I'm going to be watching a lot of Kansas State games....
-- Durant has been good, and Jeff Green is quietly producing. Horford has been a nice double-double threat, so my rookie picks are looking nice.
-- Memphis is struggling, despite great years from some young guys. What did Vegas see that I didn't? That wins over/under was my sure bet... thankfully I decided not to put money on it.
-- There aren't too many surprise out West, though the Rockets have struggle a little. I was amazed by the Clippers hanging tough for a while, but that's starting to change.
-- In the East, it's too early to tell who's really in trouble. Everyone besides Boston, Orlando, and Detroit has something to deal with, be it injuries or chemistry. Not making any calls here.
-- Boston is good, and deep enough for now.... and I expect them to add people later.
-- Don't the Bulls HAVE to make some moves now?
-- I like the Orlando / Lakers trade. LA needed to deal Cook or Radman, and Orlando suddenly wasn't using Ariza at all. Cook can play the 4 but spread things out for Howard, which seems to be working out for them. Ariza is a nice bench wing with size, which will eventually help the Lakers if they deal Odom (which they need to). Evans will add to Orlando's rotating back court. This was a small but very nice move.
-- Speaking of Orlando, Dwight Howard is on my shortlist for MVP this year with LeBron and Duncan. He's been phenomenal. Just carrying them.
-- Yi came out stronger than we thought, and Milwaukee is doing better, but do they look any different? Strange.
-- Nawlins looks nice when everyone's healthy. I hope so. I'm pulling for them, for 'Sual, and Chris Paul needs to be an all-star (especially this year when it's there).
--Philly sucks, but at least the Knicks suck worse at a higher price. I can always fall back on that. I'm going to be watching a lot of Kansas State games....
-- Durant has been good, and Jeff Green is quietly producing. Horford has been a nice double-double threat, so my rookie picks are looking nice.
-- Memphis is struggling, despite great years from some young guys. What did Vegas see that I didn't? That wins over/under was my sure bet... thankfully I decided not to put money on it.
-- There aren't too many surprise out West, though the Rockets have struggle a little. I was amazed by the Clippers hanging tough for a while, but that's starting to change.
-- In the East, it's too early to tell who's really in trouble. Everyone besides Boston, Orlando, and Detroit has something to deal with, be it injuries or chemistry. Not making any calls here.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
2008 college preview
While this is primarily and NBA blog, I do like to keep an eye on college hoops. My alma mater, La Salle, hasn't been relevant in nearly 20 years, so it's hard to keep up the passion.
Still, I like to watch the college game, which can be better than the pros in ways. It also keeps me up to date on the upcoming stars. And, since the rule changes, most guys have to play in school for at least one year now, so you will get to know them at least a little bit before they get drafted.
I don't pay nearly as much attention as teh NBA and can usually only name a handful of players, but I can tell you certain teams' lineups and I always do the bracket... legally, of course... I also like to pick my projected Final Four before the season, my sleeper, and some All-America teams, which always include peopel I never heard of in the end.
So for this year:
National Champs - North Carolina def. UCLA
Is that boring or what? Two of the most storied programs, and easy picks this year. I want to say something more interesting. But I can't see a lot of teams that have the depth or experience. It's a matter of attrition, and other teams just not having enough.
I like UNC's trio of Hansborough, Lawson, and Ellington. That's more power than most people have. UCLA finally looks good up front, but who's going to score now?
Other Final Four teams - Memphis, sleeper Washington State
Memphis has talent and can cruise through an easy conference schedule to get a high seed. They did make it to the Elite Eight last year, so I think they can go far in the real tourney. Derrick Rose is suppsoed to be sensational.
Washington State is my official sleeper pick. I suppose they aren't really a sleeper since they came out last year and they are ranked in the top 12. But no one really likes this team, and no one knows who they are. They play great D and get by without stars. I just have this feeling they'll be the team that makes it and still remains unknown. Also, it would be sweet irony if they made the F4 before in-state rivals UW and Gonzaga, who have been on the radar longer. I can see it happening for odd reasons. These things always do....
Random teams to watch:
Georgetown - Roy Hibbert came back. He should be a high pick if he keep improving, and teh Hoyas should be a contender. But without Jeff Green, it's all Roy all the time.
Kansas - Even though Roy Williams left, their penchant for choking hasn't. I loved this team the past two years and they couldn't break through. Despite their talent, I'm losing faith in them. I also think it will be hard to replace Julian Wright, who did so many things.
USC - I'm calling O. J. Mayo as the freshman and maybe the spotlight player with the highest scoring average in the country. But will they win? And will the other guys kill him? He's good, but I wonder if there's a reason Nick Young and Gabe Pruitt wanted to leave early....
Indiana - They have a nice tandem with D. J. White and frosh Eric Gordon. Plus, what's going on with the Big Ten? When did they start losing athletes? IU can rebound quickly.
Louisville - Can't name one guy but they are in everyone's top 5 or 6. Pitino, I'm waiting.
Duke - This is the least impressive Duke team I can remember since the Cherokee Parks days. They're small, and they have guys who were great in high school, but haven't become the next Hill or Laettner or Brand or even close. Prove me wrong, Dukies. And pre-emptive shut up to Butler.
Kansas State - Bob Huggins got recruits and then vanished. I want to see if Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are worth the hype. And they almost made it last year despite having no stars. Interesting team to keep an eye on, for scouting and other purposes.
Connecticut, Arizona, Michigan State, Kentucky - the official "teams that are usually good and will probably come through in the end, even though I can't name more than one guy on each."
Player of the year - Tyler Hansborough, UNC
This is a matter of attrition, although that usually doesn't work. But whatever... the best people are freshmen, and they won't have Durant-type years.
All-America FIRST
Hansborough, O. J. Mayo, Roy Hibbert, Drew Neitzel (Michigan State), Chris Lofton (Tennesee)
SECOND
D.J. White, Chris Douglas-Roberts (Memphis), Darren Collison (UCLA), Brandon Rush (Kansas), Bill Walker
OTHER POSS
Darell Arthur (Kansas), Derrick Rose, Chase Budinger (Arizona), D. J. Augustin (Texas), Derrick Low (Washington State), Bryce Taylor (Oregon), Shroomy McDoses (Gonzaga)
Still, I like to watch the college game, which can be better than the pros in ways. It also keeps me up to date on the upcoming stars. And, since the rule changes, most guys have to play in school for at least one year now, so you will get to know them at least a little bit before they get drafted.
I don't pay nearly as much attention as teh NBA and can usually only name a handful of players, but I can tell you certain teams' lineups and I always do the bracket... legally, of course... I also like to pick my projected Final Four before the season, my sleeper, and some All-America teams, which always include peopel I never heard of in the end.
So for this year:
National Champs - North Carolina def. UCLA
Is that boring or what? Two of the most storied programs, and easy picks this year. I want to say something more interesting. But I can't see a lot of teams that have the depth or experience. It's a matter of attrition, and other teams just not having enough.
I like UNC's trio of Hansborough, Lawson, and Ellington. That's more power than most people have. UCLA finally looks good up front, but who's going to score now?
Other Final Four teams - Memphis, sleeper Washington State
Memphis has talent and can cruise through an easy conference schedule to get a high seed. They did make it to the Elite Eight last year, so I think they can go far in the real tourney. Derrick Rose is suppsoed to be sensational.
Washington State is my official sleeper pick. I suppose they aren't really a sleeper since they came out last year and they are ranked in the top 12. But no one really likes this team, and no one knows who they are. They play great D and get by without stars. I just have this feeling they'll be the team that makes it and still remains unknown. Also, it would be sweet irony if they made the F4 before in-state rivals UW and Gonzaga, who have been on the radar longer. I can see it happening for odd reasons. These things always do....
Random teams to watch:
Georgetown - Roy Hibbert came back. He should be a high pick if he keep improving, and teh Hoyas should be a contender. But without Jeff Green, it's all Roy all the time.
Kansas - Even though Roy Williams left, their penchant for choking hasn't. I loved this team the past two years and they couldn't break through. Despite their talent, I'm losing faith in them. I also think it will be hard to replace Julian Wright, who did so many things.
USC - I'm calling O. J. Mayo as the freshman and maybe the spotlight player with the highest scoring average in the country. But will they win? And will the other guys kill him? He's good, but I wonder if there's a reason Nick Young and Gabe Pruitt wanted to leave early....
Indiana - They have a nice tandem with D. J. White and frosh Eric Gordon. Plus, what's going on with the Big Ten? When did they start losing athletes? IU can rebound quickly.
Louisville - Can't name one guy but they are in everyone's top 5 or 6. Pitino, I'm waiting.
Duke - This is the least impressive Duke team I can remember since the Cherokee Parks days. They're small, and they have guys who were great in high school, but haven't become the next Hill or Laettner or Brand or even close. Prove me wrong, Dukies. And pre-emptive shut up to Butler.
Kansas State - Bob Huggins got recruits and then vanished. I want to see if Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are worth the hype. And they almost made it last year despite having no stars. Interesting team to keep an eye on, for scouting and other purposes.
Connecticut, Arizona, Michigan State, Kentucky - the official "teams that are usually good and will probably come through in the end, even though I can't name more than one guy on each."
Player of the year - Tyler Hansborough, UNC
This is a matter of attrition, although that usually doesn't work. But whatever... the best people are freshmen, and they won't have Durant-type years.
All-America FIRST
Hansborough, O. J. Mayo, Roy Hibbert, Drew Neitzel (Michigan State), Chris Lofton (Tennesee)
SECOND
D.J. White, Chris Douglas-Roberts (Memphis), Darren Collison (UCLA), Brandon Rush (Kansas), Bill Walker
OTHER POSS
Darell Arthur (Kansas), Derrick Rose, Chase Budinger (Arizona), D. J. Augustin (Texas), Derrick Low (Washington State), Bryce Taylor (Oregon), Shroomy McDoses (Gonzaga)
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