Monday, June 25, 2007

I've been thinking over the Oden vs. Durant debate and I just keep thinking one thing:

Why couldn't the top two picks be reversed?

See, Portland went into this draft on an upswing. They were merely hoping to land a decent pick so they could get a small forward to complete their lineup, be it Jeff Green or Julian Wright. When they beat the odds and got the top pick, everything changed. They had to rethink the whole process.

Seattle was just begging for a decent pick anywhere. They needed excitement and a fresh start. Landing in the top two would help their situation immensely. They got it, and cheered... but for how long?

Here's what I hate: Portland would have been just fine with Durant. They would have been ELATED for number two. They might have been just fine with one of those other guys. Seattle, though, wanted Oden badly. They already have a great perimeter set up; the only thing that's kept them from the playoffs is the interior. They've drafted lots of projects in the past few years, but so far, none have panned out. If they landed Oden, it might be enough to keep them in Seattle. They could then probably convince Rashard Lewis to stay, and they'd be set. But Durant, as much excitement as he brings, is not as much of a savior. They'll let Lewis go and plug him in at the three, and it won't change anything for now. I think he's got more potential than Lewis, but he doesn't solve all their problems. Oden might.

Before the lottery, Simmons said that Seattle had the most karma out of all the lottery. I can agree with that. Seattle has always been a great basketball city with great, underrated fans. What happened to them in the past few years is terrible. They've had a bad ownership team, a bad front office, overwhelmed coaches, and a bad stadium lease. These people don't deserve that. For 30 years, they were passionate about the Sonics. Let them keep that.

I mean, how long has it been since Seattle had a decent center? Have they ever? They made it to the finals and won a lot of games in the 90's with scraps and Shawn Kemp owning at the four spot. Did they even have an all star before then? Jack Sikma? I don't know. Oden would be the first in a long, long time.

Even Simmons admitted that he'd rather have Durant if he was picking for Portland. He sugested they trade down with the Sonics and pick up Lewis for their troubles. That would be a sweet lineup, but it's too many people to please. I think if they simply take Durant and pick up future picks (and either Robert Swift or Mohammed Sene) from Seattle, it simplifies things.

Think about it:

Portland has been trying to dump Zach Randolph, admittedly a bad influence, and pick up a good three. But if they get a draft pick or someone like Antawn Jamison for him, does it make them better? They like LaMarcus Aldridge, but they don't know yet if he can be that low post scorer, or what position he fits at. Why not wait a year before deciding on Randolph to see how it all works? Why make these big decisions now?

If they dump him for a non-scorer at small forward, then find out that Oden and Aldridge don't have any offense yet, they're screwed. Whereas, if they take Durant, and pick up some of those young centers from Seattle, they'll be covered. They'll have three great players at the 2-3-4 spots, lots of young talent down low, and safer bets. Simmons' plan makes them too small and you can bet they'd complain about shots. But this plan gives them a balanced, exciting lineup. They can see if Swift, Alrdridge, or Sene works at the center spot, AND they still have Joel Pryzbilla, who can at least block shots and rebound, if these guys aren't ready. I think that's a much better looking lineup than, say, Oden, Aldridge, Jeff Green, Roy, and whatever PG they have.

Seattle just gives Oden the keys right away. Imagine how happy Lewis and Ray Allen will be with an actual force down low. And they give up guys who they're not entirely sure of.

Everyone has been saying that Oden is the safe pick, and that Portland is too scared not to take him. Ironically, I think, considering their roster, he's actually more of a gamble. If they do this deal, they're certain to have three great players, plus more guys that could be. If they just take Oden, then they have to make more trades and hope everything pans out. Durant is a natural fit for them in between their already decent combo.

And Oden might keep basketball in Seattle and take the Sonics to the playoffs... and soon.

So, I'm begging you, Portland, PLEASE, do the right thing. You won't ever be accused of pulling a Sam Bowie again. You'll make things easier for yourself. If you liked seeing him in person so much, just let Durant be the guy. But trade down so you can pick up more help. Hell, they might even take Darius Miles. Maybe. They're being awfully cheap, but I think they'd change their minds over Oden. They value him a lot more than Durant, and a lot more than you do. Use that.

As I wrote this, I realized the dark reasons that Portland could be thinking of for why they should NEVER do thsi trade: if it saves basketball in Seattle, they're helping their rivals. If they let Seattle struggle, they'll be the only team in the Northwest. They might benefit financially. They could eliminate their local competition.

That's why I wish the top two picks were switched.

I'm gonna watch this draft and hope that Portland deicdes Durant is too sexy to give up. I'm going to pray that the news Sonics management realizes that they can keep the team there and thrive if they do this right. I'm going to hope that some sort of cosmic justice can align itself here and let both these teams do what's best.

And since the Sixers didn't get in the top three, this is all I have left.

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