who wants lottery tickets

I picked the Cavs, and I hope for the league's sake that they can pull it off, because NO ONE is going to be excited about another Spurs - Pistons final, especially after the outrage over the Robert Horry Debacle. I think they need LeBron to get some hype going... will he get some official "help" of his own? So far.... ???

But of course, the big news this week was the lottery, maybe the most important one since 1985? Nah, I think the LeBron one was crucial, as was the Duncan one, and the Shaq-Zo one, and... you know what, most of the lotteries have been important, except maybe 2000 and 2001. But this was interesting because of all the tanking going on and the possibility of TWO franchise guys, maybe three if Yi Jianlin is really worth it (who knows?). It was also curious to see a bunch of teams openly tanking, as opposed to the usual one or two who just give up.

So what happens? None of the worst three teams, who are all guilty of tank tactics, actually landed in the top three. The inferior Eastern conference, which has the real dregs, got shut out of the top two. Portland and Seattle, two medium markets, get the big prizes. Guess that kills the conspiracy theories? This might save basketball in the Northwest, since they've both been struggling in recent years. In fact, I recently suggested combining them into one franchise that would be based in Portland and keep most of Seattle's fans. Could the Pacific Northwest, which doesn't have two pro teams in any other league, support both?

But then again, these franchises were both successful for a long time. Let's not forget the great fans who packed Portland during their early 90's excellence or Seattle during the mid 90's. They both started off well in the late 70's, winning titles, and it hasn't been until the past few years that either franchise had any major problems. Though they both seemed to go downhill at the same time, and it looks like the Sonics are moving soon, they were great franchises in supportive cities for years. This decade has been rough, but maybe this will turn things around.

Again, I would have liked to see the East get stronger, but it's not all lost. Remember, Steve Nash and Tim Duncan are getting old. KG is probably moving soon. Pau Gasol is probably gone, especially now. The East has LeBron, Wade, Arenas, Dwight Howard, Bosh, and good team nucleuses in Detroit and Chicago. Milwaukee, Boston and Atlanta could conceivably make playoff pushes if they weren't mismanaged and got their acts together. Philly... didn't get rewarded for not tanking, but I think they've got options (see below). The tide could turn again... although I think that there are plenty of good young teams in the West now, with Portland, New Orleans, The Clippers, Golden State, Utah, Dallas, and Houston... they could all be good for a while. That's not even counting the Lakers, Sacramento, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Seattle, who could be making big changes soon. Hmm... so the West isn't going to die, but maybe the East will get a little better. I hope.

As far as the lottery process itself goes? I like that it doesn't directly reward teams for giving in, but it could use some tweaking. Many have suggested factoring mulitple season records in, not just the previous one, so that a fluke team like San Antonio in 1997 doesn't get rewarded. I've considered a system like that before, and the problem is that it doesn't account for where teams are headed. For example, it would have prevented the Bulls from getting the first pick in 1999 (Elton Brand), because then it would've included those great years with Jordan and Co. They were terrible after everyone left, and they needed a big pick just to get back on track (and he couldn't even do that). It would have been extremely unfair to them

Here's what I expect from each team:

PORTLAND - They have the big choice, and it's not so easy. Before the lottery, most expected them to get around pick number 7 and go for a wing like Corey Brewer, Julian Wright, or Jeff Green. Obviously, Durant would be an even bigger prize. But is Oden too much to resist? One big question is what to do with LaMarcus Aldridge. Can he be a center? Do they like him enough to take Durant? Do they like him more at the four spot? I think they take Oden and trade Aldridge or, more likely, Zach Randolph (see later). But I don't know for sure.

SEATTLE - They needed this. Bill Simmons said they were the most deserving of all the lottery teams, and I started to get the feeling last week that they could be that 5 or 6th worst team that sneaks in there and gets it. They'll gladly take whomever Portland doesn't. If it's Durant, they'll let Rashard Lewis, a restricted free agent, go. If it's Oden, maybe they can convince him to stay and they'll have a good team. Either way, this is the most excitement they've had in years, and I hope it keeps the team in Seattle. This is a great basketball town and I'd hate to see what happened to Charlotte happen to them. Forget what the owners, old or new, say... they should take Memphis if they want a franchise so bad.

ATLANTA - They almost got their man after lots of frustration, but not quite. Still, they're one of the few teams happy to be at number 3, because they would have lost that pick if it was any lower. They also pick at 11 (from Indiana). They're going to target Mike Conley and they might want to add a center with the other pick. They might trade down a few spots if they know no other teams want Conley, but they're in decent shape right now. Just don't take any more wings. Please.

MEMPHIS - I used to root so hard for them when they were in Canada and losing every year. Now, not so much. They've ruined a decent start in Memphis by deliberately tanking this year and trading helpful vets like Battier and Eddie Jones away for youth. I think, unless they got Oden, they were most likely going to go really young and dump Gasol. They can still get a lot for him. They'll most likely go for Jianlin, Brandan Wright, or Horford, and look at offers for El Pau.

BOSTON - Depression abounds in Boston, and I feel for them... just as we shared our sadness ten years ago in the Duncan Draft. Sure, they tanked, and they made bad decisions, but they also have some bad luck. I'm mixed on whether they deserve all this. But I don't think it's as terrible as Simmons or every other drunken pissah at Sully's claims. If they add Horford, my surest bet out of the top two, they've got a nice front line. He, Pierece, and Jefferson would be better than most of what anyone in the East can offer. If the guards step up, they can be a playoff team. Really... don't hang yourself yet, Sports Guy.

MILWAUKEE - They didn't deserve it and I'm glad they didn't get it. This is an almost good young team with a decent lineup and a franchise center, even if he's not living up to it. Their problems lie with defense, rebounding, and shot selection. They'd be better off drafting an unselfish passer like J. Wright or Green anyway. They honestly shouldn't be so disappointed.

MINNESOTA - Needed a break more than almost anyone and didn't get it... so KG is either gone or losing his mind next year. Since they can't get an instant star to put next to him, all bets are off. They could take another forward, or Brewer, or Spencer Hawes. I don't know... Hawes gives them a nice lift immediately, and maybe down the road, but I think they have to trade KG. Just like we had to give up Iverson.... let these fighters live a little....

CHARLOTTE - They certainly could have used either stud, not having a great scorer or center. None of their guys are franchise players... but if they draft someone decent and sign a scorer like Vince Carter or Lewis, they'll be on the rigth track. I don't think fans will ever forgive the league for George Shinn, and for good reason. But they might have a future; they haven't drafted terribly so far. (OK, Morrison over Roy was pretty bad in hindsight. But when you can draft a white guy with a 'stache like that... you get sidetracked.)

CHICAGO - Very interesting team to watch here. Everyone knows the Bulls need another big man, preferrably one that can score in the post, to get over the hump. There isn't anyone at this point who solves that, especially with Roy Hibbert out. Hawes? Meh. So the Bulls might want to bring up talks to get Gasol, KG, or someone else. You dodged a bullet with this one, Isiah... but they still got the best of you... like many people.

SACRAMENTO - Another interesting team. They've got three great guys outside, but they couldn't win. They have lots of guys who used to be good down low, but they're washed up, it appears. They would like to take a big man, but with Hibbert gone, they might not have any decent pickings left. If they do trade one of their stars, things change. They're the only lottery team besides the Hawks and maybe Wolves who will look at Conley, if they decide to trade Mike Bibby... but Atlanta should be holding onto him now. They really could go any direction from here.

PHILLY - Their supposed good karma for not tanking meant... nothing. But they're not dead. Yes, I'd say this is an 11 man draft, and they're picking 12th. But they have a few options, with two later picks in the first round. Here's my proposed deal: Philly sends all their picks (11, 21, and 30) to the Blazers for Zach Randolph (and maybe Darius Miles and/or whatever contracts Portland wants to get rid of). Portland gets rid of their problem players and bad contracts and builds around nicer and potentially better young guys. Randolph might be a crackhead, but he'd own the East, and the Sixers need a big forward who can score. Plus, he wouldn't have to worry about being a big name in a small town... he can take over all of Iverson's shady routes and police logs and no one in Philly would care. 22 and 10? We'll take it. Shoot anyone you like. No worries. Then, Portland can still grab a decent wing at number 11, plus more depth with the later picks. They'll have a dynasty in five years if we get this right... and the Sixers will win the division next year. I'm calling it. Billy King, I beseech you.

NEW ORLEANS - Another wing would be nice. J. Wright, Brewer, and Green will almost certainly be gone, but Al Thornton, Thaddeus Young, and Nick Young all have nice games. It's a matter of what they want.

LA CLIPPERS - I think they add a big guy to take pressure off Brand, because Chris Kamen isn't always reliable. Hawes is probably gone, but Jason Smith is a nice player.

OTHER LOTTERY THOUGHTS...

INDIANA - Ugh. They could have used that pick. They need a big scorer at off guard, but how do they get him? They might trade JO, which would start an entirely new movement.

PHOENIX - They thought they'd have Atlanta's pick, but no. Next year, they will. This year, they can add depth with two late picks and maybe make a big move if they need it (Marion is being awfully shady...)

LA LAKERS - Better make a move, or else they're getting passed in the next few years.

That's all for now. I'll try to get some of my old stuff on here soon somehow.