RETRO: 2006 awards and playoff preview

picks and awards for ought six

FIRST ROUND

WEST
San Antonio over Sacramento in five

Despite their big push after getting Ron Artest, the Kings couldn’t get any better than the last seed, which hurts them, because they might have given the Suns trouble. As it is, they have no one to guard Duncan or Parker, and Bruce Bowen will limit Artest on one end. Spurs win without difficulty unless they have injuries problems recurring.

Dallas over Memphis in six

I don’t know if the Grizzlies really can win two games, but after two seasons of being swept, they need to at least win a few to prove they can do it. The Mavericks should win easily, but Memphis is solid enough to make them sweat… a little. Actually, maybe I’m just hoping this isn’t a disaster for the Grizz.

L.A. Clippers over Denver in seven

The stupid playoff seeding system, which I’ve complained about many times, leads us to a very rare event: a Clippers playoff appearance AND a chance for them to actually win it. But hanging onto the sixth seed helped them get a match up with the Nuggets, who could not even beat out the seventh best team (they’re tied with the Kings in wins). So the Clippers, for getting fewer wins than the Grizzlies, will actually face a much easier opponent AND have home-court advantage by virtue of a better record. Confused? Ask the NBA. Anyway, the Clips have the tools to win this series, but they need to figure out something for Carmelo Anthony, who has been playing great. I’ll give them the edge because they’re the only west coast team I can root for, and they do have the better overall team. Denver will be tough, and their record is a little misleading because they knew they didn’t have to work hard to win the division, and they’ll be hard to beat at home, but the Clippers have a little more.

Phoenix over L.A. Lakers in six

A ton of people (especially the radio morons around here) will be going for the Lakers to upset. Don’t count on it. Yes, Kobe will probably average 50 points a game in this series. But the Suns usually score 100, and the Lakers have no defense. The Suns will let Kobe score 80 if it means that the rest of the team will go scoreless. And they’ll win by 20. Lakers have no answer for Shawn Marion or a rejuvenated Boris Diaw. Kobe might be worth a win or two alone, but unless Kwame Brown and Lamar Odom suddenly turn it on, no way.

EAST
Detroit over Milwaukee in five

Okay, maybe that five is misleading. Milwaukee didn’t finish strong and they won’t come close. If Redd goes off, they could win one. Maybe.

Cleveland over Washington in seven

A lot of people will be looking to the Wiz for an upset, because Cleveland is hurting and inexperienced. Well, the east is much stronger in the top four than the bottom, and Washington needed to win big in the last week just to get this far. There is a gap between these teams, and while LeBron and Gilbert Arenas will be gunning it up, the Cavs have big men that Washington doesn’t. They made it this far. More importantly, the NBA needs LeBron to make it far. The more they can show him, the better. But yes, the Wizards make it close.

New Jersey over Indiana in six

This all depends on Jermaine O”Neal. IF he’s healthy, Indiana might have a shot only because the Nets are weak in the post. Still, the Pacers have been struggling while the Nets have been very hot. New Jersey should win without a lot of trouble.

Miami over Chicago in six

Miami has been coasting, but now it’s time for them to turn it on. They’ll face a Chicago team that has been on a major role and plays pesky, hounding defense. They might steal a game or two, but the talent level will eventually rule. Unless Shaq is really hurt, he’ll destroy them. Dwyane Wade gets to play in his hometown, giving him ample motivation.

SECOND ROUND
San Antonio over Dallas in seven

This should be a finals match, but again, the NBA is dumb. It will be the toughest second round series since the Spurs fought with the Lakers a few times during the Shaq era. Dallas improved a lot this season, and to see them in the finals is longer a surprise. But I just can’t pick them. Not yet. Not with the Spurs having too much power.

Phoenix over L. A. Clippers in six

If you thought it was crazy enough to see the Clippers in the playoffs, it’ll be even weirder to see them make it far. They can, but Phoenix has done well against them all season and they have too much scoring for the Clips to handle. Elton Brand can punish the Suns, but Shawn Marion can do the same. In a very high scoring series, Phoenix has the edge. It would help a lot more if they had Amare Stoudamire, or even Kurt Thomas, but Boris Diaw has come through as a post player.

Detroit over Cleveland in five

The Cavs will be happy to finally win a playoff series. LeBron will get lots of attention from making it this far, but his team has no way to deal with these Pistons. Unless he scores 50 and gets everyone involved, which is a paradoxical situation, they’ll go down.

Miami over New Jersey in six

Remember when New Jersey got creamed by the Lakers because they had absolutely no answer for Shaq? Well, here they are again, without any big men. They’re in trouble. They’ve been playing good and can test the Heat, and this may go to seven games if the Heat slack off, but with Shaq and Wade on all cylinders it won’t matter too much.

CONFERENCE FINALS

San Antonio over Phoenix in five

So, after their slugfest with Dallas, the Spurs will be ripe for an upset, right? Too bad no one in the other half of the bracket has any chance against them. Again, with Amare Stoudamire, the Suns would be a terrifying choice here. But without him, they have no answer for Duncan and won’t be able to take advantage. In the end, the Spurs have way too much. Bowen is one wing who can stay with Marion.

Detroit over Miami in six

I really want the Heat to win this, because I’m getting sick of Detroit and another Spurs-Pistons final would kill the league’s appeal. I keep thinking about how the Heat almost won last year, but Shaq and Wade were hurt, so if they are healthy now and the Pistons have basically the same team, they can do this… except that it hasn’t looked that way at all this year. Detroit figured it out last year and should again. They’re just on a roll too much. But the Heat can do this if they play up to potential. They’re the only team in the east that has a shot off knocking off Detroit.

NBA FINALS

San Antonio over Detroit in seven

What’s changed from last year? Detroit has a new coach and new attitude, but the same players. San Antonio at least added a few vets, and Tony Parker stepped up big. My rule of thumb is that I won’t bet against the Spurs unless Tim Duncan is hurt. Well, he’s played this season, but not at 100 %. If these playoffs grind on him, especially the Dallas series, and he can’t dominate, the Spurs are beatable. But if not, I call them to win again, despite the Pistons’ fine season.

Remember, with Duncan and Ginobli hurting, the Spurs ended up just one game behind. They have a way of being great and yet nobody noticing them either. The Pistons talk about a lack of respect, but most of the media focus has been on them this year. They’re driven, but they don’t have the depth or precision that the Spurs do. They will need to crack out Tony Delk and Dale Davis and Maurice Evans to get there, and they need to keep up their incredible injury-free streak. The Spurs just need to play like the Spurs.

Finals MVP: Parker (for showing he’s not choking anymore)

And now, for my picks on the season awards. One of the first long blogs I ever did on here was a long argument against Steve Nash being named MVP. I didn’t think he was worthy last year, but I ironically think he could be this year. Without Amare Stoudamire, with Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson gone, with an even smaller lineup, he still got the Suns to 50 wins. That’s worth a lot. But since he already won one he didn’t deserve, he can’t win two. This reminds me of the Jason Kidd situation, where he almost won for Jersey but then lost to Duncan because people (like me) said the east sucked too much (and it did). Then the next year, no one was talking about him, but I felt bad and wanted him to win. He didn’t.

That brings up another point: Kidd, Gary Payton, John Stockton, and Isiah Thomas never won one MVP award. They’re all much better points than Nash. Charles Barkley, Hakeem Olajuwon, and David Robinson were much much much greater players, and they only won the MVP once. How can Nash win it twice? It hurts me to think of it.

My pick is his former buddy, Dirk Nowitzki. Yeah, he doesn’t play defense, but his team has gotten much better in that area, and that counts for something. None of my other MVP candidates (LeBron, Nash, Kobe, Wade) is a defensive ace either. Dallas has 60 wins in the toughest division in the toughest conference, and Dirk does it without another all-star, holding together a strangely built team of wings and questionable centers. His numbers are great, he’s doing it without a true point guard, and his team has a chance to go somewhere. He makes it mainly because I find too many faults with other people (Nash has Marion, Kobe’s team isn’t that great, LeBron’s team is okay, Wade has Shaq). I like Chauncey Billups, but it’s hard to single out just one Piston. Dirk Diggler does it because he wins the war of attrition.

MVP voting 1-5 .... (which makes up my) ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM: Nowitzki, Nash, LeBron, Billups, Kobe (by a hair over Brand)

ALL-NBA SECOND TEAM: Elton Brand, Iverson, Wade, Duncan, Paul Pierce

ALL-NBA THIRD TEAM: Carmelo Anthony, Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, Pau Gasol, Yao Ming

My pick for coach of the year has changed a couple times in the past few days, but I think I’ve settled on one who gets overlooked a bit: Mike D’Antoni of Phoenix. I forget if he won it last season or not, but he deserves it this year for getting through the season without Stoudemire or any big man. I was going with Avery Johnson or Flip Saunders, but they have good big men and I never thought any team would win with Boris Diaw playing a significant role, especially in the post. Also, he helped reinstate a run and gun style in the NBA, which makes him a savior of sorts to this league.

1. D’Antoni
2. Avery Johnson
3. Flip Saunders
4. Byron Scott
… and 30. Larry Brown

My pick for defensive player of the year has also been unclear, but I’m settling for Bruce Bowen of the Spurs. I would have gone for teammate Tim Duncan, but Bowen managed to be tough this year without a healthy and mobile Duncan protecting the basket like he once did. Ben Wallace is always great, and there are some young guys who can do it on my teams as well.

ALL-DEFENSE FIRST TEAM: Bowen, Duncan, Andre Kirilenko, Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace

ALL-DEFENSE SECOND TEAM: Alonzo Mourning, Marcus Camby, Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace, Chauncey Billups

This is probably the easiest pick for rookie of the year ever, at least in my memory. New Orleans’ Chris Paul hasn’t been challenged at all since the season began. Charlie “The Hills Have Eyes” Villanueva made strides, and Channing Frye was the only thing good to happen to the Knicks this year (which means Isiah will trade him soon), but both are far behind Paul in this race. If he’s not unanimous, someone needs to lose their voting privileges.

ALL-ROOKIE FIRST TEAM (in order of voting for ROY): Paul, Villanueva, Frye, Raymond Felton, Andrew Bogut

ROOKIE SECOND TEAM: Deron Williams, Salim Stoudamire, Danny Granger, Luther Head, Sarunas Jaskievicus, with close entries Nate Robinson, Marvin Williams, Ryan Gomes (all these guys are in the same group, really)

The most improved player is also easy. Phoenix’s Boris Diaw, who couldn’t even play for the Hawks but somehow became a major contributor for the Suns. Other people who stepped up include New Orlean’s David West and San Antonio’s Tony Parker.

MIP: 1. Diaw
2. West
3. Parker
4. Dwight Howard
5. Elton Brand

Sixth man of the year – most people are going for Mike Miller, an important part of the Grizzlies, and he’s good. I liked Jerry Stackhouse before the season, and both of these guys are deft scorers whose teams use their benches heavily. Also in the mix is New Orleans’ Speedy Claxton. I’ll go with Miller, who is probably the second most important player on the Griz after Gasol.
1. Miller
2. Stackhouse
3. Claxton
4. Donyell Marshall
5. Shaun Livingston

I suppose that’s it. I’ll update my playoff picks if they fail after every round. Which they almost certainly will.