RETRO: final four '06 preview

March madness… is now.

And though you may not care much about it or even know what it is, the NIT field was also released this week and I'm sad to say that La Salle was not in it, which is a f---ing shame. 14 years since a winning team, 18 wins, and third place in a middle level conference used to be good enough, but no, the NIT is different now, and they started whittling down invitees and giving them to either unknown, very low level teams with good records or mediocre teams from big conferences. I didn't want to see Penn State shut out, of course, but I don't know if they or Virginia are really worthy of it. The NCAA now also owns the NIT and made new rules that all regular season champions of every conference, if they don't win their tourney and get in the NCAA, must at least get in the NIT.

So all these teams from tiny conferences, which can be anyone, get in, and then the obvious snubs from the NCAA's, plus low-level big teams. Look, I know the ACC is tough, but to have all 12 teams playing in the postseason is unfair to all the other conferences. And if they're so good, why are only 4 teams in the big dance? Miami and Wake Forest are barely eligible (over .500). And many times, the one seed in low conferences isn't that much better than the rest of the league, and a lot of 2 or 3 seeds get in that are good. I hate to cut out he small ones, though, so I don't know. Also, if they're concerned about where teams finish, they should know that Temple and St. Joseph’s finished below La Salle in the A-10 standings. They are in. LS is out. Alas.

Down to the real brackets. I’ve made my complaints heard before and I stand by them. I don’t like a lot of these seedings but there’s nothing to say about that now. It’s time to go. I’ve made a lot of brackets this week in various contests and I don’t even know what all my picks have been. So it’s hard to say what my official thoughts are; I can see a lot of possibilities. I did, however, come up with a few rules of my own. Don’t take them too seriously; these are just my opinions and I never claimed to be a real expert. Just a fan. I haven’t won a pool yet, though I’ve been close. Here’s my thinking…..

1. Teams that live and die by the long ball make for good Cinderellas, but not favorites in the long run. Villanova and Memphis rely on 3’s a lot…. so what happens if they have an off night? Do they have other ways to score? Nova doesn’t have much post offense, so I worry about them. Good outside shooting can get you far, but bad nights and tough defenses can end that. There have been many favorites (a lot of those Duke and UNC teams never made it because of this) that made it far but just couldn’t get over the top because they relied too much on treys and went cold. Conversely, smaller teams that shoot a lot make for good underdogs to go for. UNC Wilmington and Northern Iowa are two teams in this tourney that chuck threes like crazy. That might get them a few upsets. However, don’t expect it to last the whole time. See, it’s hard to keep things up for 6 games. Teams like this can get hot for one weekend, but then what? Which brings me to my next point….

2. Momentum doesn’t always carry over two (or three) weekends. If you think one team is hot because they upset two people, then remember that they have a week to hear about how great a story they are and the other team has a week to defend. People cool off when they get out of that rhythm. And once you get to the actual Final Four, forget what happened in the earlier rounds. It’s a new game from there. Every weekend, every two rounds, are different. Different locations, different feelings.

3. Teams that did well at the end of the season are not guaranteed to do well in the tourney, and vice versa. People have been hopping on Syracuse (who shouldn’t even be seeded that high), UCLA, and Iowa for winning their conference tournaments last week. But that momentum may not carry over. Maryland pulled a similar move to Cuse two years ago, going from a bubble team to a 5 seed by winning the ACC. Many were thinking they’d make another run. They almost got beat in the first round and lost in the second. Similarly, some teams that have slumped during the season suddenly put it together at the end. Missouri was a 12 seed a few years ago after being rated high in the preseason. They were one of the lowest at-large bids, almost snubbed. But they won, their bracket opened up, and they made it far, not to mention they faced a UCLA team that was the 8 seed and had a similar run. And don’t forget UNC in 2000, who underachieved, got an 8 seed in an easy bracket, and made it to the Final Four.

4. If a team looks like it’s much worse than its seeding, then it probably won’t live up to it. There have been some questionable 1’s and 2’s in the past few years and they usually don’t prove the selection committee right. Last year, people were shocked when Washington got a 1 while Louisville got a 4. When they played, many fans picked Louisville. They won. Tennessee is this year’s WHAT? team. Note that some of the SEC’s 2 seeds have gone out very early.

5. Cinderella teams rarely do it two years straight. If teams make an amazing run in one tourney, they are very unlikely to surprise anyone again. I don’t think you’ll see people overlooking Bucknell or Wisconsin-Milwaukee this year. The only team I can remember that did it twice in a row was Gonzaga, but that was actually part of a process that made them a mid-major national power…. a very rare exception, and one of the most improbable developments in basketball over the past decade.

6. Mid majors can sneak into the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, but the Final Four is almost always the big boys, even teams from major conferences you don’t think of. The only non-major teams to make it since 1994 are UMass (A-10) Marquette (CUSA) and Louisville (CUSA). These are the two leagues usually considered almost-majors. Sometimes you get a bracket with many upsets and a team like Kent State or Tulsa is playing for a spot in the Final Four. They haven’t done it yet. Yet 4 and 5 seeds from big conferences make it all the time. The 8 seeds that have made it have been from big conferences. The big guys just win out in the end.

7. Along with that, let me expound: power conferences often produce Final Four teams that aren’t the ones you expect. In 1996, everyone knew the Big East was loaded. UConn and Georgetown (with Ray Allen vs. Iverson) were tough and loaded for battle, and many thought they could rematch a great Big East final in the national title game. Villanova was also strong with Kerry Kittles. But it was the fourth best team, Syracuse, that made the final after getting through their bracket (the only Big East team in it). Two years ago, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State made the Final Four by good bracket luck and skills. Not the best teams in each conference, but matchups helped them. Indiana in 2002 did the same. As did Wisconsin in 2000.

8. Teams with a big crisis can go either way, but usually strongly. Look at Indiana. Their head coach is out. They could easily lose in the first round. They could make it to the Final Four. Who knows? Experts say to stay away from teams with distractions, but sometimes it propels them. And yes, a lot of times, it kills them. But I think this year, someone like Indiana might take advantage of that notion. So my lesson is: don’t always say no. This is a very tough gamble to make.

9. If your key player has a discernable weakness, teams will exploit it. You need depth and options. One guy really can’t carry a team to the title by himself. Not anymore. There just aren’t guys like in the game nowadays, they have all left for the NBA. Watch out for Duke, whose main two guys are not as infallible as everyone thinks. When Maryland won, it was because Lonny Baxter dominated and helped out their backcourt. UNC won last year with six good players. Duke won with a stacked lineup. UConn won for the same reason. You need supporting guys who can step up.

10. In the end, talent and depth rule. The big guys with loaded lineups and at least one or two good bench players are usually the ones last standing. Consistency and several scorers are better than one star and a bunch of schmucks. If your team has a lot of people that can play in the NBA, it will probably go far. Or if they’re all really good for the college level. Not that hard to see.

So here are my picks, which probably mean the least because they have nothing but pride on the line (or does that make them the most valuable?) i.e. no cash or prizes. Every week I will update them as my paid brackets crash and burn terribly.

First weekend, first round….SOUTH (ATLANTA): Duke, George Washington, Texas A & M, LSU, Southern Illinois, Iowa, NC State, Texas

WEST (OAKLAND): Memphis, Arkansas, Pitt, Kansas, Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette, UCLA

EAST (D.C.): UConn, Kentucky, Washington, Illinois, George Mason, UNC, Wichita, Tennessee

MIDWEST (MINNEAPOLIS): Villanova, Arizona, Nevada, BC, Oklahoma, Florida, Georgetown, Ohio StateFirst weekend, second round….

SOUTH: Duke, LSU, Iowa, Texas WEST: Memphis, Kansas, Gonzaga, Marquette

EAST: UConn, Illinois, George Mason, Wichita

MIDW: Nova, BC, Florida, Ohio St.

Yes, I picked a few upsets here. I don’t like UCLA or Michigan State or UNC all that much. I think Syracuse used up all their lives. The toughest call for me has been Florida-Ohio State or Gonzaga-Indiana. I still don’t know which Indiana team will show up. I think, in both cases, the winner of that game could make the Final Four.Here are my before tourney picks for the next rounds:Elite Eight: UConn vs. Wichita, BC vs. Florida, LSU vs. Texas, Gonzaga vs. Kansas

Some surprises? Wichita gets a broken bracket run. LSU can take down Duke with their big guys, who get Shelden Williams in foul trouble. Boston College has the post presence to hurt Villanova. Kansas has enough skill to get by Memphis, although I think Memphis is still the best and most talented team in that bracket. They seem like the number one no one wants to have, but you know, sometimes that means they’re the most likely one to make it. But their reliance on the three makes me nervous. In different contests, I have six different teams winning that region. Nothing would really surprise me.

Final Four: UConn vs. Florida, Texas vs. Gonzaga

I really want Adam Morrison to pull off a Bill Bradley/ Glen Rice type run, though I have a lot of doubts about that. But we need the 'stache. Florida puts together a run every few years when they have some athletes. UConn has it easy. No one in the bracket can touch them, not even the other big names. Texas has the depth to go far, and without Duke in the picture, they should cruise.

Final: UConn 74, Texas 68

UConn is the deepest and most talented team here. Texas is close behind them, but doesn’t have a real point to lead them. UConn has Marcus Williams, who might be the most important player in this tournament. At least, that’s what people have been saying. Rudy Gay isn’t always up to the task, but the Huskies have enough options to cover for him. Texas and Duke are too reliant on certain people.

Other than UConn, my second pick would be Duke after all. If they make it past LSU, they might go all the way. Texas would be third, but they struggled against Duke and a rematch would be hard. They have the talent, but not enough shooting. Other teams that can win: Memphis, if things fall the right way and they get their act together; and Villanova, though it will take a lot. If someone other than those five wins I’ll never write a word about college basketball again.

Unless it’s Gonzaga. That would be sweet.

[EDITOR'S POST NOTE: So... um... George Mason broke how many of my rules? 5? 6? It was a virtual impossibility, even though I had them in the sweet 16. Good for them, they made lots of people look stupid.]