RETRO: midseason repore

Has the NBA reached midseason already? Actually, it's more than that. There have been 50 games for most teams and there are about only 30 left. And the showcase is today, a game I haven't missed in nearly 15 years. I don't know why. Unlike baseball (well, they kinda have this problem too), it's not a classic that means a whole lot to anyone besides marketing. At least it's more exciting/relevant than the damn Pro Bowl, but what isn't?

In any case, I'm here again, watching it. And this is a good time for my midseason report, since I spent so much time on the preseason. That's on the older archive way back….. way back. A lot could change in the next week or so with trades, but here's how things shape up for me, as far as all teams are doing.

Atlanta (shouldn't have passed on Chris Paul or even Deron Williams) lottery

Boston (is Pierce playing so good because he wants to be traded, or is it because he wants to stay? If the latter, why?) lottery

Charlotte (solid foundation, but there's no real star yet) lottery

Chicago (yes, they really miss Eddy Curry, believe it or not) lottery

Cleveland (they won't have that big second half slide this year because no one else is good enough) second round of playoffs

Dallas (tougher, balanced, and deep… maybe they can hang with the Spurs) should be conference finals, but the playoff system is dumb... see notes****

Denver (need trade to shake things up, but still should win weak division without problem) first round of playoffs

Detroit (the favorites, but they might want some depth) finals

Golden State (depth and dumb contracts hold them down…. but they're close) lottery

Houston (too many injuries… if they landed Adam Morrison, they'd be in good shape) lottery

Indiana (interesting to see if they can hold on… have enough to make playoffs, but then what?) first round of playoffs****

Los Angeles Clippers (may slide, but too much talent to lose now) first or second round**** pending on matchups ****

Los Angeles Lakers (actually, I'm not impressed; Dallas this year and the 2001 Sixers had final worthy teams built around one good offensive player. You can do better, Phil. I'm not kissing your ass) first round of playoffs

Memphis (solid, again, to make playoffs, but not do anything…. which is better than they were a few years ago. Nice for Gasol to play today) first round of playoffs****

Miami (coasting till playoffs, but can they get it together then? maybe) conference finals

Milwaukee (easy schedule and enough pieces to make playoffs without trouble) first or second round of playoffs***

Minnesota (need another piece to add; hurting now) lottery (unless major trade goes down)

New Jersey (not impressed; winning suck division easily but could be better) first or second round of playoffs****

New Orleans/Oklahoma City (the most impressive surprise team so far; Chris Paul is great, and they've even won a few without him, so I can believe….and don't forget super sub Rasual Butler…. the feel good story of the year) first round of playoffs

New York (………..…. suck.) lottery

Orlando (if they never made that Cuttino Mobely trade last year, they would've made playoffs and would have good base now…. but now Francis is angry and they need to find another piece outside to complement Dwight Howard, who will be great, and Darko, who still has a chance) lottery

Philadelphia (weird roster balance, no depth, and they almost traded their only big man off the bench….. I'm confused) first round of playoffs

Phoenix (Nash impresses me more this year than last, because he's got no Amare or Joe Johnson to feed…. And once Amare comes back, they'll be tough) conference finals**

Portland (shedding problems, but have a long way to go) lottery

Sacramento (Artest rejuvenates them, but something is wrong with this team…. They can't get things going much anymore) lottery

San Antonio (once again, only injuries can stop them… but these injuries have been holding them back, so watch for that) finals

Seattle (fading back, but may have good base after recent and upcoming trades) lottery

Toronto (actually doing better recently, but that Araujo pick will be mocked for years… need to figure out point guard and wing issues, but Bosh is solid foundation) lottery

Utah (they're close, but injuries and bad choices holding them back…. Deron Williams may not be good fit) lottery

Washington (enough offense to make playoffs, nto enough d to go anywhere) first round of playoffs

So, you might notice a series of asterisks **** and some uncertainty in playoff predictions. There's a really bad problem right now with how to playoffs are being seeded, and it's infuriating to watch. David Stern did address this recently, so they might do something about it. Here's the scenario: teams winning divisions are seeded 1-3 by record amongst just them, then the rest of the conference gets the rest. So, if the top two teams in the conference are in the same division (like this year), the better one gets the top overall seed, but the second one gets the 4th seed, even if they are much better than the other division winners. That means these teams will face each other in the second round, not the conference finals. And if the 3 seed is really weak, then they get a round at home against much lesser competition. Fair? I'd say no. Look at how the Western Conference could work out this season:

Actual standings Playoff seedings

1. Dallas 61 wins 1. Dallas
2. San Antonio 60 2. Phoenix
3. Phoenix 53 3. Denver
4. LA Clippers 48 4. San Antonio
5. Memphis 46 5. LA Clippers
6. Denver 43 6. Memphis
7. NO/OKC 42 7. NO/OKC
8. LA Lakers 40 8. LA Lakers

So, as it goes, 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, and so forth, and 1-8 meets 4-5 in the second round. Denver thus gets to play a team actually a few games better than them in the first round. Dallas and San Antonio have to battle it out in the second round, when they should be in the conference finals. And wouldn't the Clippers try to start losing games on purpose to get that sixth seed? If they get fifth place, they have to face the powerful Spurs in the first round. If the get sixth, they face the Nuggets, who have less wins. Wouldn't they and Memphis battle it out to NOT get fifth? Doesn't this create more problems? I don't think the commissioner wants to have teams bailing to get positioning. Then you have a lame matchup in the first round. The 4-5 series is great and the 3-6 is awful.

This happened last year. Houston came on really strong towards the end of the season, and they could've made it far in the playoffs. But they got a tough match with Dallas, who had a better record than Seattle but less than the Spurs. Meanwhile, the Kings got Seattle and could've taken them if they weren't banged up so much. The Rockets actually won too much and got a worse match up for it. Not a good way to reward teams, is it? Hopefully they change this. I think division winners should get something, like a berth or maybe the lowest of the top four seeds, but right now it's unbalanced. And earlier in the season, the three top teams were all in the same division. This means that the top team would play, in the second round, the winner of the second and third team matchup, while the other half of the bracket would suck big time. They can't have this. When it was only two divisions, it worked out because if the top 2 teams were in one division, they didn't have to face each other until the conference finals. They even made it so the 3 seed could have home court advantage over the 2 seed if they had a better record. But creating three divisions means that there will usually be one winner who's far behind the other two.

So what's the solution? Going back to two divisions might help, but they like this three format with 30 teams. Maybe seeding everyone just according to conference would help, but division winners should get something even if their division sucks. Maybe a first round home berth. What if they took the division winners plus the top wild card and re-seeded them. Let's try this method out:

Dallas
San Antonio
Phoenix
Denver
LA Clippers
Memphis
NO/OKC
LA Lakers

See, in this scenario, it works better. Denver and San Antonio won't have to face each other so soon. Denver would get home court over the Clippers, but that would encourage them to win more so they could get an easier opponent. Now they and Memphis are fighting for good. And the rest of the teams fall into line as they did. This won't create as much turmoil. And since there's a small chance of it working perfectly for the NBA so that the three best teams are in different divisions, they need to change it. Soon.

So yes, I am picking another San Antonio-Detroit final. Detroit has been hot and they're the prohibitive favorites right now, but they haven't changed much in personnel from last year. Meanwhile, the Spurs went out and added two veterans who could help them. If they meet again, will Detroit be able to handle that depth? They've looked more vulnerable in recent weeks. The Spurs aren't running away with the conference right now, but they are doing well despite some nagging injuries. They usually do much better in the second half, too. So unless Tim Duncan misses a ton of games (like last year) they should be able to get the top seed. Dallas and Phoenix (with Amare Stoudemire back) are interesting and will give them a battle. The fact that the Spurs could have to battle Dallas, then Phoenix, then Detroit might wear them out, but they have depth. In the East, Detriot and Miami shouldn't have any problem meeting again. Miami has talent but Detroit solved that last year. Still, if Shaq and Wade had been healthy, they could've won.

So, it's a tough call. I could see Detriot cruising to the title but I could also see them losing to Miami in a series where Pat Riley lets his two stars take over. I don't know how much a change in attitude and style can help a team over adding people. If Detroit was still playing at a 70 win pace and breaking in young people, they'd convince me. But giving up Darko and Arroyo last week means they don't have many bench options outside of Antonio McDyess and Lindsey Hunter, both of whom have seen better days. Mayeb in the second half, after they nail down their top seed, they will relax, rest the starters, and get some experience for the subs. Otherwise, they might be surprised when Miami can throw Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, and Antoine Walker against their second unit.

I'm going to go with my old edict: if the Spurs are healthy, they're tough to beat. Another seven game series with the Pistons is possible. Let me reiterate that the trade deadline is coming up and that could affect a few things, as Steve Francis, several people on the Knicks, Sonics, Nuggets, and Timberwolves, and a host of others are all likely to be moved.

And no, I don't think there's any chance the Sixers will trade Iverson, as has been speculated, though if the Sonics could offer Ray Allen , I'd consider it (need to find a point somewhere then).

50 point Awards:

MVP: Chauncey Billups (I like Steve Nash a lot, actually, but he won it last year when he shouldn't have, so let's give Billups his due) 2nd: Nash 3rd: Dirk Nowitzki 4th: LeBron James 5th: Tim Duncan (with a shout-out to Elton Brand) (btw, this is my all NBA team)

DEFENSE: Tim Duncan (he's won everything else, but he hasn't gotten recognized for this, and he should) 2nd: Samuel Dalembert 3rd: Alonzo Mourning

COACH: Byron Scott (remarkable job with unknown roster) 2nd: Mike Dunleavy 3rd: Mike D'Antoni 4th: Avery Johnson 5th: Flip Saunders

ROOKIE: Chris Paul (I called it, but he's been even better than I thought… and no one else is even close) 2nd: (no chance for these) Channing Frye 3rd: Charlie Villanueva 4th: Andrew Bogut 5th: tie between Raymond Felton and Deron Williams (tough call, and right behind them, there are a lot of guards, too) second tier: Saruanas Jaskievicus, Luther Head, Nate Robinson, Salim Stoudamire, Danny Granger)

SIXTH MAN: Jerry Stackhouse (deep team, big scorer) 2nd: Michael Finely 3rd: Boris Diaw (though I think he starts now) 4th: Maurice Williams 5th: Bobby Jackson

MOST IMPROVED: tie for David West and Boris Diaw (tough to pick between these two major striders) 3rd: Mike James 4th: Jameer Nelson 5th: Mehmet Okur

My all-star teams:

East: STARTERS (Jermaine O'Neal, Shaq, Billups, LeBron, Richard Hamilton) BENCH (Allen Iverson, Dwyane Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Paul Pierce, Michael Redd, Ben Wallace, Chris Bosh) (and I'd have Vince Carter as my injury replacement… and he should not start this game… he started a bunch he didn't deserve to)

West: STARTERS (Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Kobe, Elton Brand) BENCH (Yao Ming [fuck it, it's his day], Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, Shawn Marion, Carmelo Anthony, Tracy McGrady, Tony Parker) (I know that's not enough guards, but it should be the top seven regardless, and Carmelo should be here)