RETRO: first AI trade reaction

I guess I should say something about the Iverson trade, even if no one reading this cares. I give Billy King a B - on this. It's good, but not great. I was hoping for some better young players from Minnesota or Boston or Miami, but two draft picks in this draft (which should be good) is a good deal. Plus, Andre Miller is a solid point guard, and he's proven. You can argue that Sebastian Telfair (and/or Rajon Rondo and/or Gerald Green) or Randy Foye might never have panned out. And they got the salary cap space they wanted. The point for the Sixers now? Lose. Lose as much as you can. Play all your scrubs and start telling Greg Oden that college isn't that great.... even though it is....

RETRO: got no answer today

Out of nowhere, it suddenly appears that Allen Iverson is definitely out in Philly. He's not even with the team right now.

I thought they had a chance to at least make the playoffs this year, but they're awful right now. I don't really blame him, and I hope he goes somewhere nice where I can root for him, and he has a better chance to win. He's always given his all.I guess this is an okay move for the Sixers if they do the right things. They should pick up a decent guard and maybe a draft pick. Getting Iverson's contract off their payroll (and Webber's next year) is a big step forward. Unlike the mid-90's, I think free agents will take a look at Philly. Also, this is going to be a strong draft, so if they tank this season (and they're already on their way, even with him, so that should happen), they have a great shot at drafting someone good, be it Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, or Joakim Noah. I don't know what will happen, and Billy King hasn't been so smart since.... ever.... but this can lead to a promising future if they do it right.

At the very least, DO NOT repeat the Barkley trade and then draft the next Shawn Bradley. I can't handle that misery again.

EDITOR'S NOTE: And you wonder why I named this blog....

RETRO: leo's 2006-07 bball preview

Welcome to my second blogged and at least twelfth annual NBA preview. Actually, I’m throwing college in this as well because it seems right. I’ve been closely following all the NBA moves in the past few months and I’ve been working on this preview little by little since I got back to Cali in August.

As I preview the 2006-2007 season, I see a time of change in the NBA. All the guys who got me into the game as a kid are almost gone. I found some papers when I went home this summer and they foreshadowed my current life. Before I was making top hundred album and movie lists, I was ranking my NBA cards according to my favorite players. Of course, for his days in Philly, his rotund physique, and his outspokenness, Charles Barkley was (and still is) my all-time favorite player (and athlete, for that matter). I jumped on the bandwagon, like many other kids, for Shaq and Larry Johnson and Grant Hill and Penny Hardaway. I respected Michael Jordan enough to put him in my top three, even though I hated the Bulls like I do the Lakers now. I had to have Bird and Magic in my top five together. I always had a soft spot for guys like Shareef Abdur-Rahim (in Vancouver), Mitch Richmond, Ron Harper, Glen Rice, and others who had to suffer on bad teams for so long. And then, from 1999 on, it was all about Iverson. (Wasn’t too high on him in his first couple years. As no one was.)

It all began with that great Suns – Bulls finals, Michael and Chuck, in 1993. I began to track players and teams and lineups and even colors before I had a computer. Once I did, I put it on there. I’ve been updating it ever since, transferring it to three different machines. This is the newest one, and this is only the second time I’ve posted my thoughts online for the world. So this is a nascent era for me, just like the NBA.....

Which brings me back to my original point. All those old faves I mentioned are either gone or on their way out. I got hooked on the promising rookie classes from 1992, 93, and 94. Shaq, Zo, Laettner (don’t forget how great he was in college), Sprewell (where the f---- is he?), Hill, Big Dog Robinson, Kidd (starting to slow), Jamal Mashburn, Vin Baker, Isiah J. R. Crackhead Rider, Penny, Webber, and even Tom Guggliotta all started out great and then had bizarre problems. Shaq managed to get four titles despite an infamous feud, so I guess you can’t feel sorry for him, but all those other guys had injuries and illnesses and crazy stuff happen to them and now they’re all gone but for a few. Moreover, the next wave of guys to come in like Garnett, Iverson, Mike Finley, Duncan, Stackhouse, ‘Sheed, and so forth are just about to hit the downside of their careers. Some of those guys who came in at a young age have some good years left. But you see how the NBA is now dominated exclusively by guys who have come in within this decade, particularly the good drafts of the past few years. Wade and LeBron own most of the East on their talents, Duncan gets help from younger guys, still-young Nowitzki is an MVP candidate, and so forth. It’s a new age, and I think it’s going to be a good one. They’ve got scoring up and defense down, which will make things exciting. I don’t think we’ll be in the 1980’s again, but it’s nice to see stars who can put up 40 or 50 on any given night.Speaking of the new rules….

COMPLAINTS & SUGGESTIONS

I’m partially happy with David Stern and league management this year. They finally did change the rule to have the top two teams in each conference be the top two seeds, no matter what division they are in. This is a good step, one that I’ve pushed for on this space many times. But the three division format is still creating a hell of an imbalance. In the west, the Southwest is still a million times better overall than the Northwest. Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Memphis (albeit not with Gasol out), and New Orleans are all playoff caliber teams, with Dallas and San Antonio the absolute best in the conference. In the North, only Minnesota, Denver, and Utah are decent bets to even be above .500. And those three teams still have tons of question marks, and Seattle slipped a lot last year, and Portland is just awful. So it’s unfair to have them get anything for winning that division. Even if they’re only the 4th seed now, they’ll very likely be the 8th best team in the conference. That’s unfair to whichever team is 5th, be it the Clippers or Rockets or whoever, who will probably be better. And I think it’s entirely possible this year that the 9th best team makes it and the 8th best team sits out. Denver was barely better than Sacramento last time out. I could see the Lakers, Kings, or Hornets being squeezed out this way despite having good years.

My suggestion? Just go back to 4 divisions, with 7 or 8 teams in each. Conference records matter more, so if you have 7 in one and 8 in the other, it shouldn’t be a huge deal. This will even out some things. Portland, Seattle, both LA teams, Sacramento, Golden State, and Phoenix are the old Pacific redux. Memphis, New Orleans/Oklahoma City, Utah, Denver, Minnesota, and the three Texas teams make up the Midwest. Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, Indiana, Cleveland, Toronto, Charlotte, and Atlanta make up the Central. New York, New Jersey, Philly, Boston, Washington, Orlando, and Miami return to the old Atlantic. This is a lot like it was a few years ago, and you’ll see that it gives each conference much better balance. The two division winners get the top seeds, but the best records give home court advantage, just like they used to. That always worked well. It will again here.

And if that’s not good enough for them, maybe they should cut two teams that no one cares about. Or more. No one wants to do that, but it might be a solution to those cash-weary teams. Here’s my plan: Portland and Orlando are the most struggling. Seattle was just sold, as was Memphis, but let’s keep them where they are. Portland and Orlando are small markets that don’t seem to care anymore. Portland used to be one of the best franchises in the league, both in their front office and court success, but now they’re in a tailspin. Orlando has struggled mightily ever since Shaq left. Why not have the league buy them back? We could even finally settle a coup I’ve wanted to do for years, and pull a swap like in baseball: Paul Allen, who has tons of cash but can’t save the Blazers, gets control of the Clippers from the evil Donald Sterling… although, to the Donald’s credit, he has been spending more recently. Maybe we give Allen the keys to the Sonics, whom he will certainly keep in Seattle, while the new guy who owns the Sonics gets the rights to either the Hornets or Clippers. If he moves either of those teams to Oklahoma, it won’t be a big deal. They’re both under appreciated. The Orlando guys, if they even care anymore, can get in on the messy Atlanta situation (they were next on my list).

Now, a few years ago, Bill Simmons proposed a way to cut a few NBA teams to get the talent level up. He deleted all the expansion teams from 1988 and on, and had a draft for all those teams to be given to new players. Well, he went a little crazy with it, though it did make every team much better. Whilst bored, and on a plane recently, I came up with a plan to condense the league to 20 teams, 24 teams, and 28 teams. I don’t think they need to go to 20 or 24 teams. They’re not hockey.

I don’t advocate this, but eliminating two teams could be the way to go. Look at what would happen if we cut Portland and Orlando (Toronto and Utah switch divisions to replace them) and divided them up amongst the worst remaining teams there are. It makes all of them significantly better. I tried to make the draft order close to the real one last year, but I had to help out a few teams more than others. It’s for the best of the league.

(Rosters as of mid October):
1. Atlanta – Dwight Howard
2. Charlotte – LaMarcus Aldridge
3. New York – Mario Kasun (just kidding) Zach Randolph (in case Eddy Curry still sucks)
4. Toronto – Brandon Roy
5. Minnesota – Jamaal Magliorre
6. Boston – Darko Milicic
7. Golden State – Jameer Nelson
8. Houston – Raef LaFrentz
9. Seattle – Martell Webster
10. New Orleans/Ok C – Darius Miles
11. Philly – Joel Pryzbilla
12. Utah – J. J. Redick
13. Milwaukee – Carlos Arroyo
14. Chicago – Tony Battie
15. Indiana – Jarret Jack
16. Washington – Juan Dixon
17. Sacramento – Grant Hill
18. Denver – Hedo Turkoglu
19. L.A. Lakers – Keyon Dooling
20. L.A. Clippers – Dan Dickau
21. Memphis – Joel Freeland
22. Cleveland – Sergio Rodriguez
23. New Jersey – Keith Bogans
24. Phoenix – Pat Garritty
25. Miami – Trevor Ariza
26. Dallas – James Augustine
27. San Antonio – Travis Outlaw
28. Detroit – Travis Diener

SEE? Look how much better this makes everyone! Maybe by the end of that list, those people won’t make it, but I think all of those players can help their new teams. Howard saves his native Hawks, the Knicks get immediate help, Charlotte, Boston, and Toronto grab more young prospects, Minnesota finally gives KG a decent center to play with, and other teams fill a need. And if the Kings get anything out of Grant Hill, they’ll be even more dangerous.

This is just a dream. Just a suggestion, a thought, an idea on how the league could improve itself. But I know it won’t happen, so here is my full 30 team dossier on the upcoming season. I know, I know, technically, it already started, but it’s a long season. I needed to make sure I didn’t miss any opening day trades or roster moves. It’s happened before.

TEAM BY TEAM PREVIEW

EASTERN CONFERENCE

I’m a bit befuddled about the east this year. Things just did not play out like I thought they would in May. Detroit seemed like a lock for the title, but they fell apart, and Miami snuck in there a year after I thought they would. Yeah, they probably had help from the refs. Yeah, they probably knew the Heat were in their last window of opportunity for all the old guys they had. I was surprised when they suddenly dropped Detroit, turned things around in the finals, and made it, but I had a feeling that Stern wasn’t going to let another Detroit series kill ratings. I mean, I’d rather see Miami in the finals. So would many other fans. Conspiracy? Yes. Get used to it.

Nonetheless, for this season, I figured Miami was happy to get the title, and all those guys would retire on top. Then Ben Wallace left, and Detroit was even more vulnerable. And those old guys in Miami all came back. So now what? Cleveland and Chicago are the hot teams to pick this year, but I don’t think they’re quite ready. Cleveland is farther along, after nearly knocking off the Pistons. Indiana helped themselves with Al Harrington, but they still aren’t the same team from two years ago. These are your six contenders for this year, and I suppose Miami still has the best team. I don’t think Detroit will fall off so much without Big Ben, because they have most of their scoring intact and they actually added some depth for now (why not last year???). Still, Miami wins it again because they’re the best team left. They won’t have nearly as much motivation now, so they could be knocked out easily, but I’ll go with them simply because of their roster.

But this time, they’re getting smoked in the finals. No matter who they face.

Predicted records, lineups (f,f,c,g,g), and capsules, from bottom to top:

15. Charlotte Bobcats – 26 wins (approx.)

Starters: Emeka Okafor, Adam Morrison, Primoz Brezec, Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace

Key Reserves: Sean May, Brevin Knight, Melvin Ely, Matt “the Pride of Hatsboro” Carroll

Once again, MJ is back in the NBA. The great Jordan takes over the reigns of Charlotte, staying relevant in the new era. This time he gets to stay in his home state, and he should have an easier experience than he did in Washington, because this team has been built properly. Few expansion teams have started so well. They’ve lost, and they’ve lost a lot, but they still won more than people expected and the roster is shaping up to be strong. If they can nab Joakim Noah or Greg Oden in the draft, they’ll be in a great position for the future. As for now, they’ll lose more, but these young guys will get more experience and continue to grow. Morrison and Okafor are a nice forward tandem, inside-outside, and Felton came on strong late last year at the point. Plus, they’ve been able to keep all their cap space open in the future. In other words, they’re the anti-Knicks.

Note: Jordan has been conspicuously absent from team operations. WTF? He needs to use his image to sell tickets. The fans in North Carolina were once rabid, but are now the most skeptical anywhere (except maybe Portland). He doesn’t want to be the poster boy savior like in his stint with the Wizards, but if he wants the team to do well, he has to remind people that he is actively involved in the organization. Which means showing up. Soon.

14. Atlanta Hawks – 29 w

Starters: Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Zaza Pauchulia, Speedy Claxton, Joe Johnson

Key Reserves: Shelden Williams, Tyronn Lue, Josh Childress, Lorenzen Wright

Slowly, the Hawks are building up a roster. They seem to be on the right track, but they’ve still made a ton of mistakes in recent years. They overloaded on wings, without a decent center or point man. Marvin Williams HAS to be an all-star for them to ever forget that they passed up on Chris Paul. Taking two small forwards in one draft, then signing Joe Johnson, is not great roster management. And Shelden Williams wasn’t a top five-rated pick. Still, they’re getting better, and they can fix themselves if they get a nice draft pick next year. But what’s the deal with the ownership? And why doesn’t anyone in Atlanta care about them? You know, besides the fact that they’re horrible? And why did they sign two mediocre point guards instead of getting one good star? A long way to go, but at least Johnson earned his pay…. somewhat….

13. Toronto Raptors – 30 w

Starters: Chris Bosh, Joey Graham, Rasho Nesterovic, T. J. Ford, Morris Peterson

Key Reserves: Andrea Bargnani, Jose Calderon, Fred Jones, Jorge Garbajosa

Canada rejoices as the Raps get an overhaul. New GM Bryan Colangelo arrived, they got the top pick, and they made several moves. Unfortunately, it’s not paying off this season. Bargnani is going to take time to adjust, they have no scoring or rebounding outside of Bosh, and they’re not that deep. They need to get another big scorer on the wing before they can go anywhere. Some criticized the trade of Villanueva for Ford, but Bargnani plays the same way and Ford is one of the few true points left. Colangelo knows what he’s doing, but he also knows it’ll take a while.

(By the way, Colangelo seems to be gearing this team to run like the Suns and be full of international players. I guess he figures no one will come to Canada otherwise. Usually, I’d say that they’ll end up like Phoenix and be fun to watch but they’ll never win anything. But now that the league is changing back to offense…. Who knows? This will be an interesting team to watch for the next five years to see how it grows.)

12. Orlando Magic – 32 w

Starters: Darko Milicic, Grant Hill, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Keith Bogans

Key Reserves: Hedo Turkoglu, J. J. Redick, Tony Battie, Carlos Arroyo

Orlando is in an awkward phase where they’re trying to erase the memories of the failed past few years. They gave up Tracy McGrady, then Steve Francis, and now they have… what? Nothing to show for it? That would be terrible, but they saved themselves with Dwight Howard, who is the next great big man in the NBA. He’s already a fantastic rebounder, and as he grows on offense, he will be a franchise center for many years. Now they have to work on surrounding him with talent. So far, they have mostly youngsters and a gritty Grant Hill, still trying to make it a full season. Without another star, they’ll slip this year, but their future is bright because of Howard and only him. Bogans and Redick are a nice tandem at off guard, but is either Nelson or Arroyo a bonafide starter at the point? And can they finally solve the mystery of Darko? He looked okay in a few games with them. At least they cleared cap space to sign people later.

Anyway, a lot of people are predicting them to challenge for playoff spot this year, but I think that’s a reach. Well, maybe not that much of a reach, because there’s no real way of knowing what to expect after the top 6 or 7 teams. They could conceivably slip into the last spot if all things go right for them. But they’d need a lot, I mean a LOT, of help. They don’t have a major second scorer to help Howard, and their young guys are untested. I can’t see any guy averaging more than 18 this year, and that’s hardly the way to get to the playoffs. I’m not ruling it out, because I have no faith in any of the lower teams (including … and especially… the Sixers), but right now, I doubt it. (Though it seems that every ESPN expert has them either in the postseason or just out…. and also, above the Sixers. UGHHHHHH….)

11. New York Knicks – 33 w

Starters: Channing Frye, Jared Jeffries, Eddy Curry, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis

Key Reserves: Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson, David Lee

What? A ten game improvement? Yes, I’m saying that they’re going to win more. They have to. But don’t think that Isiah is the coaching answer or that they’re really getting any better. In fact, he’s screwing them up just as bad as ever.

Look, hiring Larry Brown with this roster was a questionable move. But once they did it, they needed to make the commitment to him for a few years. Brown has turned a lot of teams around, and has won everyone he’s gone, but it doesn’t always happen right away. His first season in Philly, don’t forget, was disastrous, and he nearly strangled Iverson several times. He needed time to get the people he wanted, and to install his system. Detroit was an aberration because that was the first time he took over a team that already had a great roster.

But did Isiah listen? Hell no. He created a front office tug-of-war, because he obviously disagreed on roster decisions with Larry, and after all the crap he did to their roster, he probably should have taken some advice. Now, this roster is a nightmare. Sure, there are talented players and, on paper, this team could conceivably contend for the playoffs. In fact, since Isiah will be much nicer to them, they’ll probably respond positively in the short run and win more this season. They could even get close to the playoff race if other teams screw up.

Still, Isiah is a yutz. He’s acquired all these guys without any care to the future. Other execs look for draft picks and cap space when their teams are losing. Isiah has neither, which is awful when they could have top five picks in two straight drafts. Certain people (Markanthony, are you listening?) think that all this talent will equal good trading chips.

Uhh, no.The only viable trading chip the Knicks have is Channing Frye, and they better hang onto him. No one wants their other guys because they all have huge contracts and loads of baggage. Starbury and Franchise are overpaid, shoot-first points who aren’t made for the new style of the league. Eddy Curry has health concerns, can’t rebound or play D, and didn’t look that motivated last year. Malik Rose is old and overpriced. Quentin Richardson is overpriced. They got rid of Jalen Rose and Maurice Taylor, which was good, but I’m pretty sure they still have their salaries on the books. Jerome James was one of the worst signings ever, and yet it was soooo obvious to just about every person who ever understood a single thing about basketball. Renaldo Balkman was considered the biggest question mark of draft night…. by a WIDE, WIDE margin. Jared Jeffries is a nice supporting player, but did they need to throw money at him when they have so many guaranteed contracts already? Nate Robinson, Jamal Crawford, and Mardy Collins give them a total of five – FIVE!!! – guards who are awkward combo types that hog the ball. The old joke about how the Knicks always have five guys who are all undersized power forwards has given way to the joke (and sadly, the reality) that they have five point guards who don’t pass.

Oh, and Isiah needs to find minutes for all these guys. And he can’t cut any of them; they all have guaranteed contracts, and they’ll be tough to trade. Good jorb.

And yet, I can totally see them winning more games and people saying Isiah is an okay coach. Don’t believe it for a second. He did awful with good Indiana teams. He has failed miserably at everything since his playing days ended. He’s still at it. Now, they’ll be a mediocre team with no chance of improvement and huge contracts killing them for years. Isiah could have gone the route of starting over, getting high draft picks, and clearing cap space to sign big free agents later. And you know why this is especially bad?

THIS IS NEW YORK!!! PEOPLE ACTUALLY WANT TO PLAY HERE!!! THE COMMISSIONER WILL SECRETLY HELP YOU IF YOU LET HIM!! YOU COULD HAVE MADE A MOVE FOR LEBRON OR SOMEONE BIG LATER!!!

Instead, you’ll be watching Eddy Curry get fat and Marbury shoot thirty times for the next ten years. Well done, Isiah. Well done.

10. Boston Celtics – 36 w

Starters: Al Jefferson (or Ryan Gomes), Wally Szczerbiak, Kendrick Perkins, Delonte West, Paul Pierce

Key Reserves: Gomes/Jefferson, Tony Allen, Rajon Rondo, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair

I don’t know what Danny Ainge is doing. Ever since he took over the C’s, he has fluctuated between trying to contend in the present and starting over with kids. Everyone thought he would trade Pierce, but he wouldn’t do it. Pierce, to his credit, has been playing GREAT. But Ainge hasn’t rewarded him with proper help. He tried to with Wally World, who adds some perimeter shooting. But he just hasn’t been able to find a post force to help the outside guys. He has stockpiled a lot of young guys who have a chance, but they’re not ready yet. How much more patience can Pierce have?

The talent is there, but position battles and inexperience threaten this team. They have three young points who were first round picks, and all will fight for playing time. Perkins and Jefferson were supposed to be their future post tandem, but neither has done much so far. Gomes and rookie Leon Powe could step up, but will they get playing time ahead of guys drafted earlier? Michael Olowokandi could get time if he tried, but then, he wouldn’t be Michael Olowokandi. Green was touted as the best potential player in the ’05 draft, but he spent much of last year in the minor league. The most likely outcome is Pierce carrying them to the brink of the playoffs, but not far enough. Will he take it for long? Will these guys step up? If so, they could sneak in, but a Pierce meltdown and another lottery berth are more likely.

[Note: With the recent passing of Red Auerbach, this will be a nostalgic season for Boston. Here’s my own random story about the ol’ coach: fall of 2000, first semester in college, during the Thanksgiving break, I got to see the Red Auerbach Classic. It was held at Auerbach’s alma mater, George Washington U. I went because my boy Buttcheeks was just starting his college career playing for Boston U. Well, they lost big that night, but he had 18 points and was named to the all-tournament team. And old Red was sitting in the audience, watching. I thought several times about going up to him and saying, “Hey coach, this kid’s going to B.U., he just scored 18 points and he’s only a freshman. You know, you could use some local draft picks once in a while. You should have your scouts look at him.” But I didn’t. And now he’s dead, and Butt is selling insurance. Lesson learned: uh…. actually, honestly, nothing, it wouldn’t have changed anything. Sorry. I just like pretending that it would.]

9. Milwaukee Bucks – 38 w

Starters: Charlie Villanueva, Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Maurice Williams, Michael Redd

Key Reserves: Ruben Patterson, Dan Gadzuric, Steve Blake, Brian Skinner

After making it back to the playoffs last year, the Bucks turned heads when they traded T.J. Ford to the Raptors for Charlie Villanueva. Ford endeared himself to Milwaukee fans after coming back from a serious spinal cord injury, which cost him an entire season, and playing exceptionally hard. The Bucks missed the playoffs when he was out, but they made it the two seasons he played. Bad trade? Actually, a lot of people (Bill Simmons included) thought it was imbalanced… for the Bucks. They said that Ford was overrated, and that a young big man like Villanueva was worth a lot more than a point guard with a serious injury history.The Bucks obviously think Mo Williams can handle the point. With Ford out, he did put up good numbers. But he’s not as good of a passer, and the Bucks struggled.

Still, they signed Steve Blake, a nice assist maker, so they have some depth now. And Villanueva should make for a nice frontline with Simmons and Bogut. Add Redd’s consistent scoring and they have a decent team. I’m just wondering how much they will miss Ford, and how ready Bogut is. He and Villanueva aren’t great rebounders yet at their spots. If they can solve those issues, they should be able to grab the last playoff spot. But those are big ifs.

[Editor’s Post Note: Bogut may be hurt for a while. That’s not helping their chances. They got rid of most of their post depth with Kukoc and Joe Smith gone, so they may suffer.]

8. Philadelphia 76ers – 39 w

Starters: Chris Webber, Rodney Carney, Samuel Dalembert, Allen Iverson, Andre Iguodala

Key Reserves: Kyle Korver, Steven Hunter, Willie Green, Alan Henderson

For years, these guys have been stuck treading water. They’ve been either the last team in the playoffs or the first team out of it. They’ve hovered around the .500 mark and the middle of the league. They thought getting Chris Webber would change all this, but it’s done nothing. This summer, everyone expected them to finally trade Iverson, and though they likely contacted a number of teams about a deal, they didn’t. So now what?

Well, what else should change? They’ll probably end up where they have been ever since they made it to the finals – middle of the pack. There are enough teams in rebuilding mode that I think they can nab the last playoff spot. It’s either them or Milwaukee. If they were smart, they would tank a season to have a shot of getting a decent draft pick. But no, they’ve been stuck in the constant process of slowly building around Iverson, except they’ve forgotten the formula that got them to the finals in the first place. That year, they surrounded Iverson with role players that didn’t need the ball. Everyone defended and knew that he and he alone was the offense. It was an ugly way to win, but they did win. Since then, they’ve tried to get guys to ease the scoring burden on him, but they’ve given up on all the gritty, lunch bucket types. The result? Mediocrity.

For the record, I always thought the only guy that they ever should have gone after was Rasheed Wallace. Once he was unhappy in Portland, they needed to pull the plug. They thought Webber would be the answer because he’s a big, not a wing (wings never worked with Iverson), he can shoot it, and he can pass. But he doesn’t play D, and he doesn’t fit in with the offense. Sheed would have deferred to Al, played D, and fit in. Plus, he’s a Philly native. Why didn’t they ever think of this? Their front office sucks, that’s why. After Larry Brown and Pat Croce left town, they went nowhere, overpaying for guys who weren’t even that good. Derrick Coleman, Keith Van Horn, Kenny Thomas, Glenn Robinson… all real winners. Except for Thomas, who played hard but wasn’t worth 50-some million bucks, they were all completely washed up.

And even though Webber puts up good numbers, he’s not really helping. This team is built so awkwardly, with a few good defenders mixed in with some horrible, HORRIBLE ones.Take Sam Dalembert. He may or may not be worth the big extension they gave him, but he’s still improving and he did get a lot of blocks and rebounds. That’s good. The Sixers obviously see him as a version of Theo Ratliff or Dikembe Mutombo, two lanky centers (like him) that they did well with. Unfortunately, they forgot that those guys did well because they had bruisers like Matt Geiger and Tyrone Hill at the other post spot. Having Webber ruins it for him. He can’t body people up, so if he has to guard the best bigs one-on-one, he falls apart. A good defender at the four would free him to take more chances and get more blocks. Think of Detroit and how they used Sheed with Ben Wallace. THAT COULD BE YOU, PHILLY!!!

Seriously, if they had Wallace, Dalembert, and Iggy in the frontcourt, their defense would be just as good as Detroit’s was the last few years. I’m completely serious about that statement. Instead, Webber gives up as many points as he scores and they are going nowhere.

My course of action would be to dump Webber to a veteran team that needs him for draft picks and load up on more defenders. But they’ll have a hard time doing that. They might just have to trade Iverson soon if they want the franchise to have an easy transition, but that’ll be hard to do for the fans. Also, I hear that Comcast is selling them, which would be awkward when they want to negotiate any future TV deals, but also, this usually means that a team will not make any big moves, unless to dump salary. Would a new owner want a team without its marquee star for the past decade? Would they rather them dump everyone and be cheap? That won’t make anything easier.

A few good things that they have done: picking up Rodney Carney in the draft. He’s athletic and was projected as a top ten pick early on. He’ll allow them to move Korver to the bench. Korver is a spot shooter who can’t defend, and they relied on him a little too much. Carney should do more on the wing. If Iggy ever develops, they might have a gem. He has the skills, but he hasn’t come through yet. Getting Alan Henderson was a nice move; he adds much needed muscle and depth to the front line. Willie Green was hurt most of last year, but they wisely held onto him, and he provides good energy off the bench. And who knows if Louis Williams will ever pan out, but at least they grabbed a guy who was considered one of the best high schoolers in the nation.

Still, the story remains the same. Until something big happens, the Sixers are stuck in the middle of the conference. They’re content with that for now, but soon, they will have to make tough decisions facing the future of the entire program. Seeing as to how they’ve acted recently, I’m worried.

[Great news update: the Sixers have La Salle’s recent star Steven Smith in their training camp. I still can’t believe he wasn’t drafted, but this is a good deal for him. He’s a local star, and they need to reach out to those guys again. I think he can easily make this squad as a backup to Webber. I just hope they realize that. Keep your fingers crossed, CROSSED, fellow La Sallians. He’s on the roster for now!!!]

7. Washington Wizards – 43 w

Starters: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Etan Thomas, Gilbert Arenas, DeShawn Stevenson

Key Reserves: Antonio Daniels, Jarvis Hayes, Darius Songalia, Brendan Haywood

Speaking of teams that are treading water, Washington has made it to the playoffs twice in a row but can’t seem to break through to the next level. And that isn’t going to change this year. They made a few small moves to boost depth, but this is basically the same team that won 42 games last year. Arenas always makes them dangerous, and Jamison is a solid second star, but they have no inside game and no D. Maybe Andray Blatche will come through some day. Maybe not. I do know one thing: they have an easy team to predict for now. They’ll score a lot, they’ll give up a lot, and they’ll win 40 – 46 games and lose in the first round of the playoffs.

6. Indiana Pacers – 46 w

Starters: Jermaine O’Neal, Danny Granger, Jeff Foster, Jamaal Tinsley, Stephen Jackson

Key Reserves: Al Harrington, David Harrsion, Marquis Daniels, Sarunas Jaskevicius

Now we get into the thick of the Eastern race. The Pacers have been dealing with all kinds of s--- for a while, but keep making it to the playoffs. They never recovered from the Artest melee, struggling that season, then later trading him for Peja Stojakovic… who left in free agency. Bringing back Harrington makes them more dangerous, but they still don’t have a true second star to ease the burden on O’Neal. Their small lineup with O’Neal and Harrington in the post would be deadly with Artest, but now, they have to hope that Granger keeps developing and Jackson can still shoot it. The rest of the bench needs to step up. They drafted Shawne Williams to come in and shoot off the bench, and they imported Jaskevicius last year to do the same. Harrison has good size, but he’s raw. Daniels fell out of favor in Dallas, but he showed promise there as a rookie.

Indiana has had bad luck with injuries the last few years, so people need to be ready. And are they certain about Tinsley? Out of the six teams that are guaranteed to make the playoffs in the east, I rank them last by a little. And all this recent crap with Jackson is not helping. He’s almost as crazy as Artest was. They need to move him, but they probably won’t get much in return now.

5. Chicago Bulls – 48 w

Starters: P. J. Brown, Loul Deng, Ben Wallace, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon

Key Reserves: Tyrus Thomas, Chris Duhon, Andres Nocioni, Thabo Selfosha

Everyone is talking about the Bulls as the next dangerous team. And while they grabbed Wallace and Brown, giving them experienced post players they haven’t had in a long time, their rebuilding mode is not over yet. They still have the Knicks’ top pick next year, and plenty of cap space. They overpaid for Wallace, who’s probably not worth much more than Tyson Chandler at this point, but they accepted it because they needed a veteran presence. By the time his contract is over, rookie Thomas should be developed into a dynamic shot blocker. That’s their plan, and they’re working it out well.

As far as this season goes, I’m not buying them as a real contender yet. They have post depth and defense, but no inside scoring. Believe it or not, they missed Eddy Curry last year. There just aren’t that many true post players left in the league with moves down low. Wallace will be much better in rebounds and D, but he doesn’t help with the offense. Once again, they’ll have to rely on their perimeter guys to score. Hinrich is an all-star candidate, and Deng is improving nicely, but they need to settle things with Gordon quick. Word is that he’s unhappy with them, and they were shopping him around. They can’t afford to lose him, or trade him for less than he’s worth. The addition of Adrian Griffin and rookie Selfosha will bring depth and defense on the wing, so that might help. They’ll be better, but not great yet.

4. New Jersey Nets – 48 w

Starters: Nenad Kristic, Richard Jefferson, Jason Collins, Jason Kidd, Vince Carter

Key Reserves: Clifford Robinson, Antoine Wright, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone

The Nets have probably the easiest division to win. They made it to nearly 50 wins and the division crown last year, and they shouldn’t have a problem doing it again. Even though they finished the season on a hot streak, they couldn’t get anything done in the playoffs. So now, instead of making a big splash to get over the hump, they’ve made just a few small moves. They drafted Williams and Boone from UConn to increase depth, they signed Eddie House for shooting, and that’s about it. Much like last year, they can’t be considered a real threat until they get some post help.

What will the Nets do? Are they content with winning the division? Do they want to make one last run before Kidd starts to slow and Carter is a free agent? You’d think so. Maybe they do have one plan going. With all their acquisitions, it looks like the Nuggets are up for trading Kenyon Martin. If the Nets can come up with a deal (Boone, Wright, and a future number one might be enough) and if K-Mart can come back to full strength, the Nets would have a great lineup, rivaling when they went to the finals. But that’s two major ifs.

Otherwise, expect another season of 45-50 wins, division coasting, and a second-round playoff loss.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers – 53 w

Starters: Drew Gooden, LeBron James, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Eric Snow, Larry Hughes

Key Reserves: Donyell Marshall, Damon Jones, David Wesley, Anderson Varejao

Look out for the Cavs. After a couple near misses getting to the playoffs, they made it with ease last year and excelled. After a wild first round with the Wizards, the Cavs came from behind and nearly knocked out the favored Pistons. Now, people are thinking this team could break through. And I say they’re very close.

But not quite there. Cleveland still has a few problems. First, they haven’t figured out a rotation at point guard. Snow defends, but can’t shoot. Jones and the newly signed Wesley can shoot, but that’s about it. Rookies David Gibson and Shannon Brown might get time, but they aren’t real points. Secondly, Illgauskas has been going strong for a few years, but he’s always a threat to suffer a big injury. At least they signed Scot Pollard to give them some insurance. And they just traded Luke Jackson. He was a top ten pick a few years ago, but had done nothing. So their bench is looking iffy on the wings, and they have to hope that Hughes stays healthy this time.

Otherwise, this team is going to be scary, mostly because of King James. Remember when we wondered if he was really just 18, or if he would do much right away? He’s already on the level with the all-time greats, and he’s just starting his fourth year. He can carry this team to a title. I think they’re still one more year away, but they’re extremely dangerous.

2. Detroit Pistons – 54 w

Starters: Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Nazr Mohammed, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton

Key Reserves: Antonio McDyess, Ron Murray, Lindsey Hunter, Dale Davis

What happened? Everyone’s pick for the title before the playoffs began almost lost to the upstart Cavs, then showed nothing against the Heat. Then, they lowballed Ben Wallace, thinking he would never leave. But he did. They panicked and picked up Nazr Mohammed as a replacement. Now a team that was on pace for 70 wins and the title halfway through last season is falling apart and facing a cloudy future. Doom! Doom all around!!!!…or so experts would have you believe. Don’t believe them.

In reality, they’re still arguably the best team in the conference. True, if they didn’t beat Miami with Ben, they’re probably not going to beat them without him. But they remain a threat to win 60 games and the conference if Miami and Cleveland slip up.

[Note: Bill Simmons claims that these guys have some of the best and worst roster management, and he’s got a point. Yes, they put together the most balanced, complete starting lineup and have contended for a title for several years. But they also missed out on chances to make it better, particularly with the whole Darko debacle. I’m not going to fault them for drafting him, because it’s hard to pass up on a seven footer with skills, regardless of how great all those other kids turned out to be. But they refused to play him, then traded him away for nothing in order to save cap space to resign Ben. But they didn’t try hard enough to keep Ben, and they lost both. They could have kept Darko as insurance. They could have traded him for immediate help. Now they have nothing to show for a number two pick in one of the strongest drafts ever. That’s bad. Moreover, the only weakness they had the past two years was a lack of depth and shooters. They refused to sign anyone or give up Darko for an important reserve. Why? They could have won two straight titles and maybe a third if they just tweaked a few things. But no. Simmons has a valid point, but I still say Joe Dumars is one of the best general managers out there. He put this team together from a squad filled with junk. He just gambled twice on the Darko situation and lost.]

Billups, Hamilton, Prince, and Sheed all know how to compete. Mohammed is a solid rebounder who will bring a little more offense than Ben did. He’ll likely split time with McDyess, with Davis and maybe Jason Maxiell getting a few minutes here and there. This puts a lot of pressure on Sheed, but he should be up to it, unless the new rules make him sit out every other game (technicals are going to be easy to get this year). At least they signed Murray, who can score and give their guards a rest. In fact, they have a better bench than they used to. Murray and Carlos Delfino are people they could have used before. Ben wasn’t on offensive threat, so they can focus on scoring more. Too bad they should have made some of these moves while they had him. It’s too late, but they can still compete if things go their way.

1. Miami Heat – 55 w

Starters: Udonis Haslem, Antoine Walker, Shaquille O’Neal, Jason Williams, Dwyane Wade

Key Reserves: James Posey, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning

The Heat got to the title jusssssssssssssssst as their window of opportunity was closing. They managed to capture the peak of Wade going up and Shaq going down. Even though the Pistons were doing better, they got hot in the playoffs and captured it. Mourning, Payton, and Walker gave in to the playoff run and got their rings. Happy endings all around. Sunsets were ready to be ridden off into.

Then they surprisingly all came back, eager to win another. Then the Pistons lost Big Ben, and suddenly it looks like they are the best team left. But besides their ages, these guys have to deal with complacency. All those vets worked hard for their first title. Can they do it again? Shaq got himself in somewhat decent shape to prove he could win a title without Kobe. But he still dropped off a lot from his previous output, missed a lot of games, and mailed it in for most of the season. Now that they’ve proven it, can they find that energy again? Riley managed it with a great Lakers team, but this is different. I think they’ll win the east because they’re the best team for right now, but I could see Cleveland or Detroit knocking them out. And if they face Dallas or San Antonio, they’re getting killed this time.

Some things to think about: is J Will ready to get more time? Can they get more out of young bigs Wayne Simien and Earl Barron? Is former first-rounder Dorrell Wright ready? These guys are their future. For now, the only question really is if Shaq can keep himself interested. Probably not, but he’s shown that he can still do well at less than 100 %.

EASTERN PLAYOFF PICKS

First Round Playoffs: Miami over Philly in four, Detroit over Washington in seven, Cleveland over Indiana in six, New Jersey over Chicago in six….

Second: Miami over New Jersey in six, Cleveland over Detroit in seven….

Conference Finals: Miami over Cleveland in seven.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

This is a little easier. The western title – and the NBA title, for that matter – should go to Dallas or San Antonio. No one else is even close. Only the Suns have a chance of making it to the finals besides them, and that’s only with a lot of miracles. Dallas and San Antonio should both win 60 games or so and meet up in the conference finals, where they belong. This time, I think the Spurs could get them back. But they’re neck and neck.

The real question is how the rest of the conference is going to shape up. Phoenix is the third best team, but how will Amare fare? Can they integrate him with their current team? The Clippers, Hornets, Rockets, Nuggets, T-Wolves, Kings, Warriors, Jazz, Grizzlies, and Lakers will all be fighting for spots. Hell, everyone but Portland has a realistic chance to make the playoffs. The northwest division sucks, but Denver and Minnesota (and maybe Utah) will duke it out for a guaranteed spot in the postseason. Houston was derailed by injuries last year, but if healthy, they could be the third or fourth best team in the conference. All those teams made some improvement in the off-season, so who gets left out? I’m constantly wondering about the lower half of the bracket. Spots four through eight will be tough.

Records, players (f,f,c,g,g), and capsules, from bottom to top:

15. Portland Trail Blazers – 18 w

Starters: Zach Randolph, Darius Miles, Joel Pryzbilla, Jarret Jack, Brandon Roy

Key Reserves: Martell Webster, LaMarcus Aldridge, Raef LaFrentz, Jamaal Magliorre

Hard to believe these guys were once the model franchise for the league. They survived in a small market; their fans were supportive and boisterous; they had classy players; and they won. They kept winning. Up until a few years ago, they had a streak of 16 seasons straight in the playoffs. Now, I can’t imagine them getting back there anytime soon. They’re the joke of the league, they rarely sell out, their players get in trouble constantly, and their owner was going to sell them but didn’t think it was even worth it.

With the conference at a strong point, they’ve decided to rebuild completely. Not a bad idea. They’ve picked up a lot of first round choices and have loads of young talent. They won’t win much, but they finally installed a pledge to get back to the old days.As for now, they need to get rid of these old guys and problems, but they have bad contracts. Aldridge is buried behind older, overpriced stiffs. Randolph puts up good numbers but could end up on the front page of the paper / in jail any day. His contract makes him super hard to trade. Same with Miles, who’s been mentioned in trade talks for years. They also need to figure out the point situation, after they decided Sebastian Telfair wasn’t their future. Sergio Rodriguez and Dan Dickau will have a shot to unseat Jack.

But they have some good news. Roy should be a star from day one. He’s got a shot at top rookie honors because he’ll get minutes and points for this team. Webster will continue to improve, and they have sleeper picks who might turn out to be something. Maybe. It’s gonna be a long season in Oregon, and this team is still miles away.

14. Seattle Super Sonics – 30 w

Starters: Chris Wilcox, Rashard Lewis, Johan Petro, Luke Ridnour, Ray Allen

Key Reserves: Earl Watson, Nick Collison, Danny Fortson (maybe), Damien Wilkins

I don’t think the Sonics are that bad. In fact, they could make the playoffs in a down year. But there are too many good teams in the west, and they haven’t done much to improve themselves from last year’s bunch, which won 32 or so. They’re still a perimeter-based team without any inside scoring or defense. The plan now seems to be for them to wait until their young bigs are developed. Robert Swift, Wilcox, Petro, and rookie Mohammed Saer Sene are all raw and loaded with potential. If any of them pan out, the Sonics will have a good team eventually. Until then, they’re going to be lottery bound. Something tells me they see a little Shawn Kemp in Wilcox, but he hasn’t gotten close to that level yet. Great scoring tandem with Lewis and Allen, though. Those two deserve better.

[News flash: Swift, their lottery pick from two years ago and their projected starting center, is out for the season. They were hoping that he would finally give them a decent center. Now they have to hope that Petro and Sene can give them something, and maybe Fortson, but he’s an ass. In fact, he’s already in trouble. And, so are they.]

13. Golden State Warriors – 35 w

Starters: Ike Diogu, Michael Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, Baron Davis, Jason Richardson

Key Reserves: Michael Pietrus, Monta Ellis, Adonal Foyle, Andris Biedrins

These guys have been in mediocrity hell for years. They’ve been bad, then they’ve made a run at the playoffs, then they lose someone and fall short. Last year, I picked them to sneak in and they didn’t. So did other people. Every few years, they get to the high 30 win zone, almost make it, but don’t, and can’t seem to break through that barrier. This has been going on since Chris Webber left.

So why expect anything else? They made waves by hiring Don Nelson, who was there for the fun years of the early 90’s. Eventually, he might be able to mold this team into a playoff contender. But not this year. The conference is just too stacked, and this roster hasn’t changed enough.

Much like the Sonics, the Warriors have been stockpiling raw big men with high draft picks. This year’s experiment, Patrick O’Bryant, joins Bidriens, Foyle, and Diogu in a collection of young post players with potential but few accomplishments. The Warriors are hoping that one or two of them will pan out to go with their talented perimeter and Murphy, who’s a solid producer at the four but no star.

The Warriors also made a questionable move by trading away Derek Fisher, one of the few bench players they could rely on. Davis doesn’t always play in control, so having the veteran come in was a nice change of pace. Don’t know why they did that. Their bench has no experience, other than Pietrus. Nellie has to address these things and hope that he can get something out of those young bigs before he can think playoffs.

12. Memphis Grizzlies – 37 w

Starters: Pau Gasol, Mike Miller, Jake Tskalidis, Damon Stoudamire, Eddie Jones

Key Reserves: Rudy Gay, Chucky Atkins, Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick

The Grizz are in a rough spot this year. They’ve been overlooked for the past couple years. They won 50 games, but they were only the sixth seed the first time they made it to the playoffs. Last year, they were the fourth best team, but the playoff system screwed them over. Instead of a lively first round with the Clippers, they got the intense Mavs. I still feel for this team, even if they are a playoff mainstay.

Sadly, that’s probably changing this year. The Grizz haven’t changed much from last year, when they almost won 50 and should have been the fourth seed. But the rest of the conference has gotten better, and they haven’t. They took a small step back when they traded Shane Battier for rookie Gay, who likely won’t contribute too much right now. But that was a good trade for the future, because they needed another star with Gasol and they weren’t going to get it with their middle round draft picks.

Though this is basically the same roster as last year, a couple things will sink them. First, the Battier for Gay trade leaves them without a key defender. Secondly, they have no centers. Gasol and Swift can handle most of the post rotation, but they could really use someone else. And, most importantly, Gasol hurt himself in international play and may miss a large chunk of the season. They can’t go anywhere without him.

Pending on how much time Gasol misses, they could struggle. That plus the improvement of other teams means they should be out of the playoffs. If he can play, they’ll likely be in it. If not, they’ll drop fast with the other teams speeding up.

11. Los Angeles Lakers – 38 w

Starters: Kwame Brown, Lamar Odom, Chris Mihm, Smush Parker, Kobe Bryant

Key Reserves: Brian Cook, Vladimir Radmanovic, Luke Walton, Jordan FarmarI’m not sold on this team. Everyone out here was giddy over them last year for bringing back Phil and making it to the playoffs. When they got ahead of the Suns, people were saying they could make it all the way to the conference finals. Well, they lost that series, and the new playoff format means there won’t be a weak bracket. More importantly, the conference has gotten a lot tougher in the middle and they didn’t do much to improve. So I’m saying they stay home in May.

Phil swallowed his pride and rebuilt this team to suit Kobe. And Kobe might be the best player out there. But that’s not enough. I’ve been watching the Sixers try the same method with Iverson for years, and lemme tell ya, it’s hard. They only won when they had good rebounders and defenders around him. The Lakers don’t. They, much like the Sixers, have been trying to get a second star to help Kobe and more youngsters. That’s not going to cut it in this tough conference.

Odom has the tools to be great, but he’s still learning. And he doesn’t have any defensive prowess at all. Brown and last year’s draft wonder, Andrew Bynum, are raw, and who knows if either will ever make it. The Lakers do have nice role players in Parker, Walton, and import Radmanovic, but their defense and rebounding is horrible. They could give more minutes to Ronny Turiaf, but then what do they do with the other guys? Cook and Radmanovic are basically the same player. And they continue to ignore getting a solid starting point.

Last year, they managed to sneak in when a few of the younger teams weren’t ready, but this year, they’re going to have to work super hard. Houston, Utah, Minnesota, and New Orleans aren’t going to fall down so hard this time. Phil and Kobe will really have to work magic for them to make any noise this year, let alone the postseason.

[News flash: Word is that Kobe could miss part of the beginning of the season. He hasn’t played at all in the preseason. If he has any, ANY, injury problems at all, they’re done for. They need everything to go right to make it again, and this is the worst thing they can have. With a conference this tough, it should be enough to keep them out of the playoffs.]

10. Minnesota Timberwolves – 39 w (O.S.T.) sleepers!!!

Starters: Kevin Garnett, Trenton Hassell, Mark Blount, Mike James, Randy Foye

Key Reserves: Ricky Davis, Marko Jaric, Rashad McCants, Eddie Griffin

After a big run to the Western finals, the Wolves dropped off a lot, then dropped off even more last year. Now they’re back in the hunt, but only because the division sucks. I think they’re very close to winning it because Utah and Denver aren’t helping themselves, but Minnesota has been.

I was ready to pick them to win the division, but news out of Minnesota hasn’t been good. Quietly, a lot of people think Garnett is through with them, and that this will be his last season there. That worries me. I’m still going to nominate them as my Official Sleeper Team this year. I think it’s entirely possible that they could get to 45 wins and take this crummy division. Or they could completely implode and clean house. Hard to tell. Pretty much no one is picking them for the playoffs, which is a bad sign, but I say they’ll at least be in the mix with Utah and Denver.

It’s also very possible that KG has been hurt the past two years. He hasn’t been producing like before, and he’s too young and too much of a competitor to be majorly done or quitting. He’ll benefit from some new faces. James and Foye will give him the guard support he hasn’t had in years. Davis will start or give scoring off the bench, and Hassell is a great defender.

This team still has a lot of problems. There’s no post presence besides KG, and even he isn’t a real bruiser. He has no decent center to take pressure off him. Blount is a solid backup, but that’s it. Griffin is and always has been a real crack head, from his days at Roman Catholic, but they’re forced to use him. Jaric was a waste at point, though he might be better as a reserve. Troy Hudson could be a nice sparkplug off the bench, but he’s probably hurt. McCants is a question mark. And even though I expect the new backcourt to help them out, they make up an awkward duo – two undersized combo guards who are more scorers than passers. That never sounds good.

Nonetheless, KG doesn’t need much to get it done. He had nothing but disgruntled vets and youngsters the past two years, but now, with help, it should be enough to make them at least a playoff contender again. If they can get to an even record, and I think they’ll be close, that might be enough to win the division and grab the last spot. Mark them down – they’re my sleepers for this year.

9. Utah Jazz – 40 w

Starters: Carlos Boozer, Andre Kirkilenko, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, Gordon Giricek

Key Reserves: Matt Harpring, Derek Fisher, Jarron Collins, Ronnie Brewer

The Jazz are a tough team to grade. They have a nice lineup and a nice bench. They’ve drafted and signed well, and they seem to be putting together a solid team. So why can’t they do well? Their roster hasn’t changed much from last year, when they managed to get back around .500. Yeah, they’ll have Boozer, but who knows for how long, and his presence will mean less points for Okur, who benefited from a lack of scorers last year.

I think the Jazz suffer from a similar problem as the Sixers in that they try to mix in great defenders with horrible ones. Kirilenko is a machine, a force on both ends, but none of the post guys can block shots, and the perimeter ones are young or spot shooters. In other words, he’s the only guy who can guard anyone, though Collins and Williams might be able to help.

Brewer adds athleticism at the two guard spot, but he can’t shoot. Williams is a solid young point, but he doesn’t fit in the old pick-and-roll system. With Harpring and Boozer, it seems like it was years ago they were healthy and productive, but they’re not old. So basically it’s up to Kirkilenko to carry them. Since they did make it to 40 wins last year, and their division sucks, they are still technically a playoff threat. But after all the big moves this year by other teams, they’ll have to work hard. Nice move, though, to pick up Fisher. He’ll help their young guards.

Bad karma point: they traded for Rafael Araujo. Uhhh…. really? How can you call yourself an NBA official and trade FOR him? I don’t care if they didn’t give up much for him. He’s not worth giving up a hot dog vendor. Even Isiah didn't trade for him... yet.

8. Denver Nuggets – 41 w **** (will be 4th seed for winning division)

Starters: Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Andre Miller, J. R. Smith

Key Reserves: Nene Hilario, Reggie Evans, Earl Boykins, Julius Hodge

Controversy follows George Karl everywhere. Now it could undermine the Nuggets’ whole season. They’ve been making moves to prepare themselves to trade Martin. They’ve watched as Karl and Martin have nearly killed each other. But yet he’s still with this team. How can they keep him around and expect it to work? That’s more awkward than every Curb Your Enthusiasm episode put together. The fact that they have FOUR guys besides him who can play his position suggests that he’ll be moved, despite what they say in public. Or several of them will.

Without a healthy and happy Martin (he may not be either right now), the Nuggets have no star to help Carmelo out. He’s doing this all alone. Camby and Miller are solid, but he’s the only scoring threat. They keep investing in Nene, even though he’s been hurt a lot. They have questions and more questions at off guard. As great as Melo is playing, they can’t make noise in the playoffs like this.

The good news? Their division is still shaky, and they can probably unload Martin to the Knicks or Nets if they are willing to. That gives them some hope. All they have to do is jussssst keep above a winning record and they should take the crown again, not that it means much. They need to solve things soon before people lose trade value.

[And yes, I just picked the top three teams in the Northwest division to finish within two games of each other. This is why I want four divisions again. These teams are barely good enough to be in the postseason; let’s not hand them over a nice seed.

And yes, the winner of this division is basically a toss-up for me. Not that it matters – whoever wins it will be destroyed in the first round anyway.]

7. Sacramento Kings – 43 w

Starters: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Ron Artest, Brad Miller, Mike Bibby, John Salmons

Key Reserves: Kenny Thomas, Quincy Douby, Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia

Here’s a team heading in many different directions. After their shady near miss in the playoffs four years ago (one that I still don’t feel happy or satisfied about…. yes, Mr. Commissioner, I’m talking to you…), the Kings have slowly gutted their roster. They got rid of Webber, then Christie, then Vlade, then Peja. Now all they have is Bibby from that 63 win team. They brought in new guys last year who didn’t quite fit their pass-happy system, so they changed it. Then, this summer, they low-balled one of those guys (Bonzi Wells) and he left.

Now the Kings are in a state of confusion. They added Artest for the unhappy Peja, even though he doesn’t fit their system and he could flip out at any time. Bibby is still one of the best points in the league, but after these two, the Kings don’t have much. They used to have a line-up full of potential all-stars, but now it’s just these two. Miller hasn’t been healthy in a while. Shareef dropped off dramatically last year in production, so maybe the Nets were right about his bum knees. Thomas is a great sub, but doesn’t score.

The big question for them is at off guard, where Wells was showing some skills. They added Salmons, who they like for his passing, but as I can tell you after watching him with Philly for so long, he’s not worth 25 million. Unless you signed him for 25 years. Besides him, their last three draft picks (Douby, Garcia, Martin) can all play the two. So they replaced one decent guy with four questionable ones. We’ll see how that goes.

These guys are a shaky pick for the last (free) playoff spot (minus the crap division). If Artest blows up or the new guys don’t work, they can slip easily. I’m not putting them above this. Some people pointed out how good they were after they added Artest, and that they were on a 50-win pace if they had him for a full season. But having him for that long is a major if, and a big part of that was also Wells coming on. They’re in it for now, but not by much. And what’s their future? They need to make decisions soon before they slip into constant mediocrity.

6. New Orleans / Oklahoma City Hornets – 46 w

Starters: David West, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Chris Paul, Desmond Mason

Key Reserves: Bobby Jackson, Hilton Armstrong, Rasual Butler, Cedric Simmons

After all they went through, moving out of New Orleans, shuttling between Louisiana and Oklahoma, and being miserable the previous year, no one expected the Hornets to do much last season. When they flirted with the playoffs, they became the feel-good story of the year by far and coach Byron Scott was a favorite to win top honors. Though they faded a little down the stretch, they impressed everyone with this work.

Then, over the summer, they surprised everyone yet again by making some deals. Their owner was run out of Charlotte for being such a cheap ass, but now they are throwing cash around. As a result, a team that had made a miraculous turnaround and was already on the rise got even better. They should be in the playoffs this year and many more after.

It all begins with Paul, the best point to enter the league since Jason Kidd. He’s dynamic, and was possibly the easiest choice ever for rookie of the year. The Hornets also finally got a lot out of West, who started scoring well. Now they add Peja, a great shooter, to flank Mason, a slasher and top defender. They also traded for Chandler, an athletic big, and drafted guys just like him in Simmons and Armstrong. And they’ve got my boy Rasual off the bench, making his niche as a deadly shooter. This is suddenly a nice roster.

Yeah, they still have some problems. Chandler has been erratic and missed games, which is why the Bulls gave up on him. Peja has slowed a bit. Jackson, who could be a fantastic sixth man, has had lots of injury problems. Still, they brought in and drafted a lot of need guys who will give them depth. They can survive a few injuries as long as no major problems happen.

The Hornets will continue to alternate home games in different places, but they’re on the rise. Barring major injuries, they should make the playoffs and climb into the west race with an exciting young team.

5. Los Angeles Clippers – 49 w

Starters: Elton Brand, Corey Magette (or Ross), Chris Kaman, Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobely

Key Reserves: Quinton Ross (or Magette), Shaun Livingston, Tim Thomas, Zelko Rebraca

Clippers! Clipppppppppppers!!!!

How things have changed in the most overlooked, depressing franchise in the history of the league. They used to be stuck with an owner who never spent any cash, horrible draft picks, and a general dark cloud that floated over the whole team and never left. Now they’re one of the better teams in the West.

What happened? Either through the new salary cap rules or maybe just senility, somehow Donald Sterling started spending cash to keep his players. The Clips locked Brand and Magette (and now Kaman), then shocked people by landing Mobely and trading for Cassell. Everyone thought they’d let Sam I Am go this summer rather than up him for two more years, but no! They brought him back, which might be the first time he’s felt welcome anywhere. Even if he does struggle, they have Livingston ready to take over soon, one of their new good draft moves. This is a very solid lineup and they have a promising future for the first time in, well, ever.

Of course, they probably aren’t coming as close to the conference finals as they did last year with the different playoff seeding, but they’re probably the only team besides the big three (Spurs, Suns, Mavs) guaranteed to be in the playoffs again. They have a nice mix of scorers and role players, depth for the first time in their lives, and it all starts with a legitimate MVP candidate in Brand and a tested leader in Cassell.

Sure, they have problems. Cassell is clutch but also hogs it too much at times. Livingston is still raw and has been hurt a lot so far. Kaman gets into foul trouble easily, and they don’t have much post help off the bench. Who knows which Thomas is going to show up? Their rebounding is an issue besides Brand and Kaman.

But let us rejoice! This is the most glorious time for all of us who hated the Lakers and can gleefully watch the Clippers establish themselves as the better team in town. If the Suns fall apart, they could even win the division.

4. Houston Rockets – 50 w

Starters: Juwon Howard, Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Rafer Alston, Tracy McGrady

Key Reserves: Kirk Snyder, Dikembe Mutombo, Bonzi Wells, Luther Head

The Rockets were my pick to be the third best team in the whole conference last year, but they slid to the bottom. Injuries killed their two stars and some of their support. Thus, any preview of this team comes with a big if: if they can stay healthy, they’re a threat.McGrady’s absence actually allowed Yao to build up some of his game. He had to carry this team, and he tried, posting great numbers. Still, the Rockets need both of them to win. It’s that simple.

In the off-season, the Rockets went to work on surrounding those two with the right people. They gave up a chance to draft Rudy Gay in order to get Battier. This is a smart move in the short term, though maybe a long term gamble. Battier will relieve McGrady of having to play small forward. He’ll also get the tough matchups on D. He’s a good spot shooter who can knock down threes, so he fits well in this offense. Alston is erratic, but he’s the only true point they have. They will probably use shooters like Bob Sura, Head, and rookie Vasilleis Spanoulis in the other guard spot.

The trade with Battier also saw them give up Stromile Swift, which was another risk. Even though Swift hadn’t fit in as well as the Rockets predicted, he was their only other option at the four spot besides Howard, who’s starting to wear down. This left a big hole in the post next to Yao. It appears now, with the late signing of Wells, that the Rockets plan to go small and surround Yao with guards. Their small lineup might work because Wells plays inside more than out and rebounds extremely well for his size. Jeff Van Gundy will still have to figure out a way to compensate for the lost boards, because Yao is the only threat to get 8 or more a night. Young fours Steve Novak (who can shoot, but that’s it) and Chuck Hayes (who can rebound, but that’s it) might get some time.

Besides obvious health questions, the Rockets will go as far as their stars can take them. I don’t know if their role players are what they need in every spot, or if they can rebound and defend with their small lineup, but if it works, they’ll be dangerous. I’m saying they make it back to the playoffs and could even win a round.

3. Phoenix Suns – 56 w

Starters: Shawn Marion, Boris Diaw, Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash, Raja Bell

Key Reserves: Kurt Thomas, James Jones, Leandro Barbosa, Jumaine Jones

I have to say that these guys really impressed me last year. I hated Nash as the MVP the year before, but I have to admit that he stepped it up last year. I didn’t think they would do much, and I certainly didn’t expect them to make it back to 50 wins without the injured Stoudemire. But Mike D’Antoni has done a masterful job with this club, getting all he can out of a high octane offense and guys who fit the system.

Last year, the Suns surprised everyone with the sudden great play of Diaw, who was buried on the Hawks. Who knew? He thrived as a post player in their crazy offense, and they hardly missed a beat. They weren’t really the second best team in the conference, and they almost lost to both LA squads, but they did great. Much better than I thought they would, for sure.

Now that Stoudemire is back, a lot of people have hopped on the bandwagon proclaiming them the best team in the league. After all, if they did good without their superstar big man, how great could they be if he came back at full strength?

Well…. sorry, Phoenix. I have doubts.History has shown that people don’t make it back from serious knee surgery. They might return at a slower clip, but few have ever missed a year from this and returned to glory. Stoudemire is young and he is a physical freak, but that’s a bad, bad sign.

The other worry is how the Suns readjust to having him in there. Part of the reason they thrived with a small lineup last year is because Marion and Diaw worked well in the post. Even though they’ll be bigger up front now, one of those guys is going to have to move out on the perimeter and it might disrupt their flow. Also, Stoudemire did great before he got hurt because he was a big guy who could run and dunk over people. If he doesn’t have that same lift now, he’ll be much less useful in their system.

Oh, and let’s not forget that Nash has nagging back problems, or that this team plays no defense whatsoever. They did help themselves by bringing in Jumaine Jones, Marcus Banks, and Eric Piatkowski, who will all fit in nicely. Still, there are just too many ifs.

Until I see that Stoudemire is doing something, and that the Suns can adjust, I refuse to hop on board with all these people. They’ll win 50 games and be fun to watch, no doubt, but they’re not catching San Antonio or Dallas unless they get really, really lucky with all their plights.

2. Dallas Mavericks – 59 w

Starters: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, Greg Buckner

Key Reserves: Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, Devean George, DeSanga Diop

After years of dicking around with the roster, the Mavs finally made it with a cast lacking star power more than they ever had. Besides Nowitzki, my choice for MVP, they had good but not star supporters and role players. And it worked. For once, they figured it out, squeezed past San Antonio, and would have owned the finals if not for shady officiating and Miami’s huge sense of urgency.

I was ready to make them my odds-on favorite for the title this year, but I had to make them choice 1A to the Spurs’ 1. Why? The Mavs finally got the better of the Spurs last year, but they don’t own them yet. The Spurs have bounced back from tough losses (Lakers) before and made it back. Plus, the Mavs forgot their new mode of business and started making moves.

I said after the finals that the Mavs should not touch their roster, especially on the perimeter. Maybe they could get more muscle down low, but that’s about it. They had too many wing players to make everyone happy, so they needed to set a rotation and stick with it. So what did Mark Cuban do? Get antsy and sign more people, which may disrupt things a bit. The Mavs brought in George, Anthony Johnson, and Buckner, who will fight for minutes with Terry, Harris, Stackhouse, and Howard, who were all great in last year’s run. That’s seven guys for three spots, which will leave someone upset. Moreover, they gave up on Marquis Daniels, who could’ve done everything Johnson and Buckner do, plus he’s a young up-and-comer. Then they drafted Maurice Ager, another wing. He won’t even have a chance to contribute yet.

If Avery Johnson can get these guys to meld, they’ll be a little deeper. Still, it doesn’t make them that much better than last year. The spots that they needed to address were in the post, and they did nothing. Diop was a revelation last year after doing nothing in Cleveland, but Dampier has been disappointing and there’s no post help besides those two. The Mavs could have brought in another rebounder and did not. They have to hope that their gamble at center works.

So where does that leave the Mavs? Exactly in the same place we last saw them. Nowitzki is great, Harris is rising, Howard is the best role player you can have, and Terry sank a lot of big shots for them. It’s neck-and-neck between them and the Spurs for the title. This year, I think the Spurs can sneak past them, but it’s almost a coin flip. The Mavs need things to go their way again, but at least they didn’t lose anyone.

1. San Antonio Spurs – 62 w

Starters: Robert Horry, Bruce Bowen, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli

Key Reserves: Brent Barry, Matt Bonner, Beno Udrih, Michael Finley

I know it’s boring to pick the Spurs every year. I’ve been doing it for like 4 straight seasons now and it doesn’t get any easier. Of course, by doing that, I’ve been right half the time. The Spurs won it in 2003 and 2005, so they’re a natural choice for 2007, right?

Initially, I wanted to pick Dallas after last year’s finals, but then I thought about it more. San Antonio didn’t have it easy last year. Duncan and Ginobli missed a lot of time with injuries, and Finley wasn’t as great of a pickup as they thought. After they lost to Mavs, many experts said that the torch had been passed and the Spurs were no longer the best.

But think about it…

They lost tons of games to injuries….

They weren’t healthy in the playoffs…

And they still won 63 games and were one missed shot away from taking down Dallas.

Finished? I think not.

The truth is that the Spurs are so good that they almost made it to another finals at less than full strength. They just barely, barely didn’t (yes, they would have gotten past Phoenix, easily). So if they can make it a full year without any problems, they should be the favorites, right? I think so. If Duncan ever makes it a whole season without missing any games, this team can honestly get close to 70 wins. They’ve been close before.

Of course, the Spurs have to worry, because Duncan has been missing games for every season the past few years. He’s got foot problems and he always seems to be battling something. Still, he’s good enough to be better than everyone else at less than 100 percent.

Also, unlike the Mavs, the Spurs did not sit still over the summer. They made changes to adapt themselves to the newer, faster pace of the league. They brought in Bonner, Francisco Elson, and some other young guys to man the post. Bonner can play the four and still shoot, spacing things out for Duncan like Horry does. Elson is an athletic young shot blocker. The Spurs might lose some rebounding, but they can also go small now if they need to. And they realized that they can afford to play four guards around Duncan because he owns the post so hard.

For this, I give the Spurs a tiny, tiny edge over the Mavs, which makes them the favorite. Once again, I will make my usual claim: a healthy Tim Duncan will not lose in the playoffs. Only Shaq could take him down before, and he’s not the same now. It’s boring, but the Spurs can get it done and they’ve bounced back before.

WESTEN PLAYOFF PICKS

First Round Playoffs:

San Antonio over Sacramento in five, Dallas over New Orleans in five, Phoenix over Clippers in seven, Houston over Denver in four……

Second: San Antonio over Houston in six, Dallas over Phoenix in seven…

Conference Finals: San Antonio over Dallas in seven.

(Note: Denver gets the 4th seed automatically for winning the division. Again, no matter who it is, be it them, Utah, or Minnesota, that team is not getting out of the first round.)

THE 2007 NBA FINALS

San Antonio over Miami in six games.

MVP: Tony Parker

I think the key phrase this year is Sense of Urgency. The Heat had it last year because they knew it was Shaq (and Zo and Payton)’s last stand. The Mavs have a young team and they know they’ll be around for a while. So I’m not as sold on them, nor Phoenix, which is a young team that still needs to get Amare back to full form.

The Spurs, however, are really at their end of the rope. They saw during the Dallas series that the Mavs were going to be tough for a while. They know they don’t have much time left with this current cast. Horry is almost done. Finley dropped off a lot. Bowen is wearing down, and the frenetic style he plays won’t keep up for long. Ginobli is older than you think – remember that he played overseas for a couple years. Duncan is great, and not super old, but he’s got recurring injury problems. Only Parker is still on the upswing of his career. That’s why I think the Spurs will come out extra motivated this year. They know this is their last shot with the current roster. Just like the Heat knew last year.

Therefore, to reacp stuff I've been repeating all day, the Spurs are the pick. They’ll take back Dallas, and that series will be the real finals, because the East certainly isn’t doing much. Whoever wins the battle of Texas is going to be a huge favorite in the finals. The Heat don’t have that essential sense of urgency, the Pistons are a step down, and the Bulls and Cavs aren’t ready. The Mavs and Spurs are ahead of everyone in the whole league, not just their conference. The Spurs will be extra ready after getting embarrassed on their own floor by Dallas last year.

In the finals, I expect the Spurs to attack a weakened Shaq with Duncan. Bowen and Ginobli will take turns hounding Wade. Parker will continue his improvement by running past Williams and Payton. The Spurs will take home their fourth title and start making major changes.

AWARDS

Most Valuable: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas

I picked him last year, and I think his playoff push should influence everyone now. It was too late for them to change their votes, but they’ll make up for it this year. Other candidates include Duncan, as always, LeBron, and Wade. If the Cavs make it to the finals and/or do well, King James might just snatch it up.

And there’s no way in hell it’ll be Steve Nash again. You morons got that out of your system.

Rookie of the year: Adam Morrison, Charlotte

I see a three-man race between Morrison, Brandon Roy, and Randy Foye. All three of these guys have a lot of college experience and thus are more ready to contribute right away than the younger, rawer guys like Tyrus Thomas and Bargnani. Morrison and Roy are on bad teams, so they should get plenty of shots and put up good numbers. Foye has been dazzling in summer league play, but he has to defer to KG and Mike James. Still, being on a good team always sways voters, so he has a shot. A lot of experts are hyping Foye, but I like Morrison because Charlotte has no shooters or big scorers, so they’ll rely on him right away to put up 20 nightly.

Coach of the year: Byron Scott, New Orleans / Oklahoma City

Scott was a major candidate for this award at the halfway point last year, when the Hornets were in contention for a playoff spot. He never made it because they slid at the end, but he should get it this year for all the work he’s done for a franchise that’s been through so much. Other candidates include the big three in the west (Johnson, Poppovich, D’Antoni) and anyone who makes a big surprise (Dwayne Casey?).

Defensive player of the year: Tim Duncan, San Antonio

If there’s any justice, Duncan would be recognized for his defensive capabilities as well as his offensive dominance. He holds that team together. I think he has always split votes in this race with teammate Bruce Bowen, but Duncan’s prowess allows Bowen to be so aggressive. In any case, I’m sick of seeing Ben Wallace win it every year. The other Pistons helped a lot. He’ll do fine in Chicago because Skiles also has great defenses, but he’s not the only one. Other candidates besides those three guys are Quinton Ross of the Clippers, Kevin Garnett of the T-Wolves, and Dwight Howard of Orlando. Oh, and Ron Artest, if he doesn’t kill anyone. You never know…

Sixth man of the year: Al Harrington, Indiana

Harrington will likely come off the bench, but he’ll play tons of minutes in a small but dynamic lineup. He’s got a great shot at this. Other candidates include Jerry Stackhouse of Dallas, who I liked last year, James Posey of Miami, Leandro Barbosa of Phoenix, Bonzi Wells of Houston, Bobby Jackson of New Orleans, and Corey Magette (if the Clippers use him this way). Also, whoever doesn’t start for Chicago in the frontcourt (Loul Deng, Andres Nocioni, or P. J. Brown) has a good chance.

Most improved: J. R. Smith, Denver

Smith never really got a shot in New Orleans, though he was their first pick two years ago and projected as their off guard of the future. Denver will give him every chance to succeed, because they have pretty much nothing else at his position. He can shoot it, so he should get points. Other candidates include Martell Webster and Jarret Jack of Portland, Marvin Williams of Atlanta, Chris Wilcox of Seattle, Andrew Bynum of the Lakers, Jackie Butler or Francisco Elson of San Antonio, and Andre Iguodala of Philadelphia (please put it together now). Hell, some teams have a whole mess of guys who need to step it up, like Boston (Sebastian Telfair, Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen, Gerald Green); Orlando (Darko Milicic, Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo, Trevor Ariza); and Golden State (Ike Diogu, Andris Biedrins, Dajuan Wagner, Monta Ellis). Yup, there are a bunch of guys that could step up, and whomever does will help their team and take home this award.

ALL LEAGUE TEAMS

ALL – NBA

First: Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Steve Nash

Second: Elton Brand, Yao Ming, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady

Third: Jermaine O’Neal, Shaquille O’Neal, Paul Pierce, Gilbert Arenas, Allen Iverson

Honorable Mention: Carmelo Anthony, Shawn Marion, Dwight Howard, Chauncey Billups, Chris Bosh

ALL – ROOKIE

First: Adam Morrison, Randy Foye, Brandon Roy, Rodney Carney, J. J. Redick

Second: Shelden Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Jordan Farmar, Andrea Bargnani, Rajon Rondo

Honorable Mention: LaMarcus Aldridge, Tyrus Thomas, Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, Rudy Gay

ALL – DEFENSE

First: Tim Duncan, Ben Wallace, Kevin Garnett, Quinton Ross, Bruce Bowen

Second: Andre Kirilenko, Dwight Howard, Samuel Dalembert, Kirk Hinrich, Ron Artest

ALL – STARS

Western Starters: Yao Ming, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant

Western Bench: Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, Tracy McGrady, Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker

(Honorable Mention: Ray Allen, Andre Kirilenko, Manu Ginobli, Jason Richardson, Mike Bibby, Ron Artest)

Eastern Starters: Jermaine O’Neal, LeBron James, Shaquille O’Neal, Allen Iverson, Dwyane Wade

Eastern Bench: Chris Bosh, Paul Pierce, Dwight Howard, Chauncey Billups, Gilbert Arenas, Richard Hamilton, Michael Redd / Jason Kidd (toss-up for that last spot)

(Honorable Mention: Redd / Kidd, Vince Carter, Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, Kirk Hinrich, Joe Johnson)

IMPORANT NOTE TO ALL OFFICIALLY SANCTIONED WRITERS: Please, voters, stop putting Vince Carter in there. He already made a few appearances as a starter when he shouldn’t have even been on the roster. Kidd runs that team, not him. We now know that his numbers are inflated and not clutch at all. Please keep this in mind when you cast your ballot in January. Thank you.

And my personal favorite squad….

LEO’S 2007 NBA ALL – UGLY TEAM

Honorary Captain: Tyrone Hill

Promising Newcomer: Adam Morrison

Starters: Charlie Villanueva, Brian Cardinal, Chris Kaman, Sam Cassell, Hedo Turkoglu

Bench: Morrsion, Erick Dampier, Delonte West, Renaldo Balkman, Jerome James, Jamal Crawford, John Edwards, Eric Williams, Reggie Evans, Tyronn Lue, Peter John Ramos, Jason Terry, Jake Tskalidis

MVP: “The Hills Have Eyes” Villanueva (props to Edwin for coming up with that)

Oh, how I miss those 80’s with their great perms and ‘fros and ‘stasches. And the early 90’s with their fades and box tops… the memories…

BRING BACK PAUL MOKESKI!!!

*****H***O***O****P***S*****

You think I’m done? I’m not done. This is a basketball preview, and I still need to get through college hoops. I have to admit that I haven’t followed college hoops as strongly since I left La Salle (and my boy Buttcheeks finished his time at Boston U.). It’s not quite as fun anymore. But with the new rules banning high schoolers from entering the NBA, the college game is going to be owned by underclassmen and seniors who step up.

Last year, while everyone was looking at Duke and UConn, Florida came on strong with a young team and got a few breaks on their way to the title. It happens. This year, with their whole lineup back, they’re everyone’s favorite.

Well, sorry, Gators, but you are no Duke. You see, the loaded Dukies of Laetter and Hill and Hurley were the last team to repeat. Since then, many teams have won titles with relatively young teams and tried to repeat, without success. North Carolina couldn’t do it, even though they added Stackhouse and ‘Sheed to a title team, Arkansas couldn’t do it, Arizona (who I would make a similar comparison to with Florida) couldn’t do it, the Jay Williams – led Dukies couldn’t do it, and I don’t think Florida is great enough to do it either. They got hot at the right time. And UConn unimaginably lost to George Mason in possibly the greatest upset ever. Then they faced a young UCLA squad who I really didn’t think was that great either.

So don’t expect me to kiss ass for Florida and UCLA this year. Although, there isn’t really one team that strikes my fancy. All the usual suspects have problems and inexperience. Last year, there were a number of teams that I could see winning the title. This year, I just don’t know.

The Gators will be good and make it back to the final four, but they’re not that special team capable of winning two in a row. I see teams that are loaded with young talent and just enough returning stars to make it as well.

Final Four: North Carolina, Kansas, Ohio State, Florida

Elite Eight: UCLA, Duke, LSU, Wisconsin

Sweet Sixteen: Pitt, Syracuse, Texas A & M, Texas, Arizona, Creighton (O.S.T.), Georgetown, Kentucky

I guess I have to pick one of those teams to make it all the way…. sigh…..You know, this is rough. Doing a preseason college preview is nowhere near as fun as doing it before the tourney starts. You get to see which young teams are coming on, how teams match up, what the brackets look like, who’s hurt, and so forth. It’s getting really hard to see just how things will work out in October as opposed to March. It just is. Especially now since most teams are relying on youth. No one predicted Florida last year before the season started, and I sure didn’t, but I did have them in the Final Four once I saw the bracket.

So my prediction now is not worth much, because it’s all about bracketville. But I’ll make a bold one anyway: Ohio State will ride its super freshmen to the title. Greg Oden, maybe the best center since Duncan, joins a team that’s already good, so why not? And yes, that means that I have officially picked the Buckeyes to win both the football and basketball crown this year. Just shoot me in the face now.

(Actually, if you think I believe in jinxes, you’re right. Ohio State has tons of negative karma going its way. Maybe if enough of us pick them to win, we can get Maurice Clarrett to strap a keg of dynamite to his chest and wreck the whole place. Cross your fingers.)

Here’s my all-America team for now:

Tyler Hansbrough, UNC
Glen “Big Baby” Davis, LSU
Joakim Noah, Florida (Naismith winner)
Nick Fazekas, Nevada
Alando Tucker, Wisconsin

I think Noah will win the player of the year awards because he’s visible right now and he’s won the title. But there’s room for lots of guys to get it. Other candidates:

Terrence Dials, Ohio State
Greg Oden, Ohio State **** (might be hurt at first)
Josh McRoberts, Duke
Aron Afflalo, UCLA
Aaron Gray, Pitt
Al Horford, Florida
Kevin Durant, Texas
Curtis Sumpter, Villanova
Ronald Steele, Alabama

I don’t know what’s going on with Connecticut, Gonzaga, Louisville, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Villanova, Texas Tech, or Memphis, but I have a feeling they’ll come through with new people sooner or later. And what’s the deal with the Atlantic Ten? Is there anyone good left? Why did Fran Dunphy turn down La Salle twice, only to jump to Temple right away? Temple hasn’t gotten great recruits since the Pepe Sanchez years. I have no idea what is going on in my home conference anymore. Someone get me John Cheyney... so he can strangle some info! HEYO!

I will also predict that in next year’s draft, Oden, Noah, Durant, Horford, and McRoberts will be the top five picks, in that order. Finally, we’ll get a draft with some good post players. Teams like the Bobcats, Hawks, and Blazers will be ecstatic.

(Oh, and someone fire Billy Packer already.)

And there you have it. My basketball blog comes to an end. It’s been a long road, but I hope I have informed all of you about the state of hoops for the upcoming year. Of course, I’ll keep updating things from time to time, and I’ll have big previews for the NBA playoffs and the NCAA tourney before they start. For now, adios.

RETRO: 06 draft reactions

Whilst walking around tonight and eating out beforehand (Note: the surrounding area around Wilshire and Western doesn't have much for you if you're not Korean) I got to spy on the goings on in the NBA draft. I think everything went well; for once, a lot of the top teams got what they needed, even if they didn't make the smartest moves. No huge surprises, most picks made sense, except the Knicks, who continue to confuse everyone. Really happy that the Sixers get Rodney Carney - he's a top seven talent who will do more overall than Korver and give them some much needed depth on the wing.

RETRO: the H is O

Seeeeeeeeeee? I knew Miami had too much nostalgia and good news going for it to lose the title. There was no way Stern was giving Dallas a title without any trouble. Yes, I think that the NBA may have helped push the Heat to the title, but I’m not as angry about it as I was during the infamous Lakers-Kings or Knicks-Pacers series of yore because Dallas messed it up themselves, too. They could have stopped this, because they clearly had the better team, but it got to their heads. Mark Cuban has every right to complain, but that doesn’t mean he should, because his antics got the team feeling robbed and they just gave up in game six. Maybe after this experience, they will get it done next year. They’re all fairly young and developing, and with a few roster moves to clean out the glut of perimeter players (leave it at Howard, Daniels, Stackhouse, Terry, Harris, and NO ONE ELSE… that’s five quality guys for three spots. You can’t get much better than that) they will be in the best position to get back here next year.

In fact, I’d say they’re my early favorite to win it in ’07. Phoenix, Detroit, San Antonio, and maybe someone else will be tough (Cleveland? New Jersey? Houston? Clippers?). Pending on moves they make. I think Miami will have big changes again – Shaq really doesn’t have anything to prove now, getting one ring without Kobe, as does Riley also getting one outside of L.A. Alonzo Mourning and Gary Payton will retire, I’m betting, and Shaq will keep getting less effective as the years go by, with only the lack of quality big men keeping him respectable. Dwyane Wade is a top three talent, but this team is done as a real contender. He’ll keep them in the top half of the conference as long as he plays, but right now, I’m calling Dallas. Stay tuned for my NBA end-of-season capsule and draft recap in the next few weeks.

RETRO: 06 playoff problems

SO Dallas finally overcame San Antonio. They're playing pretty tough, and like I said, this was the real conference finals and they should move on easily. The Suns might be thinking upset, but they had a big fight on their own hands. Sad to see the Clippers miss a rare, rare, chance to make it far. Anyway, I'll call Dallas in six, because Phoenix has enough energy to keep it close. But not win.

In the East, I really wanted to see LeBron do the impossible, and he came SOOOOOOOO close. But it's another Pistons-Heat matchup, and I called them over Miami in seven games. After that Cavs series, Detroit looks very vulernable, and Miami took it to New Jersey after a strange opening game. I think the Heat can do it, but Detroit still turns it on when they need to, so I'll stick with them in seven. I'd like to see Mavs vs. Heat, for something new, but Pistons-Suns would be an interesting clash of styles.

I say Detroit over Dallas in seven, but I'm not rooting for it.

RETRO: i wrote this on 2 hours sleep

Oh, and I did get the NBA first round right, though those Flakers gave me a scare. I'll stay with what I have, though I really want to see the Clippers in the conference finals, and the Nets suddenly put it together.

RETRO: i wrote this on 5 hours sleep

I really don’t know how the Suns can be struggling so much. Let Kobe score 50 if it means shutting everyone else down. They can outscore the Lakers any day. What a waste. And the Heat and Nets (and even Spurs) should not be struggling like that. No one has really looked that great so far.

RETRO: 2006 awards and playoff preview

picks and awards for ought six

FIRST ROUND

WEST
San Antonio over Sacramento in five

Despite their big push after getting Ron Artest, the Kings couldn’t get any better than the last seed, which hurts them, because they might have given the Suns trouble. As it is, they have no one to guard Duncan or Parker, and Bruce Bowen will limit Artest on one end. Spurs win without difficulty unless they have injuries problems recurring.

Dallas over Memphis in six

I don’t know if the Grizzlies really can win two games, but after two seasons of being swept, they need to at least win a few to prove they can do it. The Mavericks should win easily, but Memphis is solid enough to make them sweat… a little. Actually, maybe I’m just hoping this isn’t a disaster for the Grizz.

L.A. Clippers over Denver in seven

The stupid playoff seeding system, which I’ve complained about many times, leads us to a very rare event: a Clippers playoff appearance AND a chance for them to actually win it. But hanging onto the sixth seed helped them get a match up with the Nuggets, who could not even beat out the seventh best team (they’re tied with the Kings in wins). So the Clippers, for getting fewer wins than the Grizzlies, will actually face a much easier opponent AND have home-court advantage by virtue of a better record. Confused? Ask the NBA. Anyway, the Clips have the tools to win this series, but they need to figure out something for Carmelo Anthony, who has been playing great. I’ll give them the edge because they’re the only west coast team I can root for, and they do have the better overall team. Denver will be tough, and their record is a little misleading because they knew they didn’t have to work hard to win the division, and they’ll be hard to beat at home, but the Clippers have a little more.

Phoenix over L.A. Lakers in six

A ton of people (especially the radio morons around here) will be going for the Lakers to upset. Don’t count on it. Yes, Kobe will probably average 50 points a game in this series. But the Suns usually score 100, and the Lakers have no defense. The Suns will let Kobe score 80 if it means that the rest of the team will go scoreless. And they’ll win by 20. Lakers have no answer for Shawn Marion or a rejuvenated Boris Diaw. Kobe might be worth a win or two alone, but unless Kwame Brown and Lamar Odom suddenly turn it on, no way.

EAST
Detroit over Milwaukee in five

Okay, maybe that five is misleading. Milwaukee didn’t finish strong and they won’t come close. If Redd goes off, they could win one. Maybe.

Cleveland over Washington in seven

A lot of people will be looking to the Wiz for an upset, because Cleveland is hurting and inexperienced. Well, the east is much stronger in the top four than the bottom, and Washington needed to win big in the last week just to get this far. There is a gap between these teams, and while LeBron and Gilbert Arenas will be gunning it up, the Cavs have big men that Washington doesn’t. They made it this far. More importantly, the NBA needs LeBron to make it far. The more they can show him, the better. But yes, the Wizards make it close.

New Jersey over Indiana in six

This all depends on Jermaine O”Neal. IF he’s healthy, Indiana might have a shot only because the Nets are weak in the post. Still, the Pacers have been struggling while the Nets have been very hot. New Jersey should win without a lot of trouble.

Miami over Chicago in six

Miami has been coasting, but now it’s time for them to turn it on. They’ll face a Chicago team that has been on a major role and plays pesky, hounding defense. They might steal a game or two, but the talent level will eventually rule. Unless Shaq is really hurt, he’ll destroy them. Dwyane Wade gets to play in his hometown, giving him ample motivation.

SECOND ROUND
San Antonio over Dallas in seven

This should be a finals match, but again, the NBA is dumb. It will be the toughest second round series since the Spurs fought with the Lakers a few times during the Shaq era. Dallas improved a lot this season, and to see them in the finals is longer a surprise. But I just can’t pick them. Not yet. Not with the Spurs having too much power.

Phoenix over L. A. Clippers in six

If you thought it was crazy enough to see the Clippers in the playoffs, it’ll be even weirder to see them make it far. They can, but Phoenix has done well against them all season and they have too much scoring for the Clips to handle. Elton Brand can punish the Suns, but Shawn Marion can do the same. In a very high scoring series, Phoenix has the edge. It would help a lot more if they had Amare Stoudamire, or even Kurt Thomas, but Boris Diaw has come through as a post player.

Detroit over Cleveland in five

The Cavs will be happy to finally win a playoff series. LeBron will get lots of attention from making it this far, but his team has no way to deal with these Pistons. Unless he scores 50 and gets everyone involved, which is a paradoxical situation, they’ll go down.

Miami over New Jersey in six

Remember when New Jersey got creamed by the Lakers because they had absolutely no answer for Shaq? Well, here they are again, without any big men. They’re in trouble. They’ve been playing good and can test the Heat, and this may go to seven games if the Heat slack off, but with Shaq and Wade on all cylinders it won’t matter too much.

CONFERENCE FINALS

San Antonio over Phoenix in five

So, after their slugfest with Dallas, the Spurs will be ripe for an upset, right? Too bad no one in the other half of the bracket has any chance against them. Again, with Amare Stoudamire, the Suns would be a terrifying choice here. But without him, they have no answer for Duncan and won’t be able to take advantage. In the end, the Spurs have way too much. Bowen is one wing who can stay with Marion.

Detroit over Miami in six

I really want the Heat to win this, because I’m getting sick of Detroit and another Spurs-Pistons final would kill the league’s appeal. I keep thinking about how the Heat almost won last year, but Shaq and Wade were hurt, so if they are healthy now and the Pistons have basically the same team, they can do this… except that it hasn’t looked that way at all this year. Detroit figured it out last year and should again. They’re just on a roll too much. But the Heat can do this if they play up to potential. They’re the only team in the east that has a shot off knocking off Detroit.

NBA FINALS

San Antonio over Detroit in seven

What’s changed from last year? Detroit has a new coach and new attitude, but the same players. San Antonio at least added a few vets, and Tony Parker stepped up big. My rule of thumb is that I won’t bet against the Spurs unless Tim Duncan is hurt. Well, he’s played this season, but not at 100 %. If these playoffs grind on him, especially the Dallas series, and he can’t dominate, the Spurs are beatable. But if not, I call them to win again, despite the Pistons’ fine season.

Remember, with Duncan and Ginobli hurting, the Spurs ended up just one game behind. They have a way of being great and yet nobody noticing them either. The Pistons talk about a lack of respect, but most of the media focus has been on them this year. They’re driven, but they don’t have the depth or precision that the Spurs do. They will need to crack out Tony Delk and Dale Davis and Maurice Evans to get there, and they need to keep up their incredible injury-free streak. The Spurs just need to play like the Spurs.

Finals MVP: Parker (for showing he’s not choking anymore)

And now, for my picks on the season awards. One of the first long blogs I ever did on here was a long argument against Steve Nash being named MVP. I didn’t think he was worthy last year, but I ironically think he could be this year. Without Amare Stoudamire, with Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson gone, with an even smaller lineup, he still got the Suns to 50 wins. That’s worth a lot. But since he already won one he didn’t deserve, he can’t win two. This reminds me of the Jason Kidd situation, where he almost won for Jersey but then lost to Duncan because people (like me) said the east sucked too much (and it did). Then the next year, no one was talking about him, but I felt bad and wanted him to win. He didn’t.

That brings up another point: Kidd, Gary Payton, John Stockton, and Isiah Thomas never won one MVP award. They’re all much better points than Nash. Charles Barkley, Hakeem Olajuwon, and David Robinson were much much much greater players, and they only won the MVP once. How can Nash win it twice? It hurts me to think of it.

My pick is his former buddy, Dirk Nowitzki. Yeah, he doesn’t play defense, but his team has gotten much better in that area, and that counts for something. None of my other MVP candidates (LeBron, Nash, Kobe, Wade) is a defensive ace either. Dallas has 60 wins in the toughest division in the toughest conference, and Dirk does it without another all-star, holding together a strangely built team of wings and questionable centers. His numbers are great, he’s doing it without a true point guard, and his team has a chance to go somewhere. He makes it mainly because I find too many faults with other people (Nash has Marion, Kobe’s team isn’t that great, LeBron’s team is okay, Wade has Shaq). I like Chauncey Billups, but it’s hard to single out just one Piston. Dirk Diggler does it because he wins the war of attrition.

MVP voting 1-5 .... (which makes up my) ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM: Nowitzki, Nash, LeBron, Billups, Kobe (by a hair over Brand)

ALL-NBA SECOND TEAM: Elton Brand, Iverson, Wade, Duncan, Paul Pierce

ALL-NBA THIRD TEAM: Carmelo Anthony, Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, Pau Gasol, Yao Ming

My pick for coach of the year has changed a couple times in the past few days, but I think I’ve settled on one who gets overlooked a bit: Mike D’Antoni of Phoenix. I forget if he won it last season or not, but he deserves it this year for getting through the season without Stoudemire or any big man. I was going with Avery Johnson or Flip Saunders, but they have good big men and I never thought any team would win with Boris Diaw playing a significant role, especially in the post. Also, he helped reinstate a run and gun style in the NBA, which makes him a savior of sorts to this league.

1. D’Antoni
2. Avery Johnson
3. Flip Saunders
4. Byron Scott
… and 30. Larry Brown

My pick for defensive player of the year has also been unclear, but I’m settling for Bruce Bowen of the Spurs. I would have gone for teammate Tim Duncan, but Bowen managed to be tough this year without a healthy and mobile Duncan protecting the basket like he once did. Ben Wallace is always great, and there are some young guys who can do it on my teams as well.

ALL-DEFENSE FIRST TEAM: Bowen, Duncan, Andre Kirilenko, Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace

ALL-DEFENSE SECOND TEAM: Alonzo Mourning, Marcus Camby, Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace, Chauncey Billups

This is probably the easiest pick for rookie of the year ever, at least in my memory. New Orleans’ Chris Paul hasn’t been challenged at all since the season began. Charlie “The Hills Have Eyes” Villanueva made strides, and Channing Frye was the only thing good to happen to the Knicks this year (which means Isiah will trade him soon), but both are far behind Paul in this race. If he’s not unanimous, someone needs to lose their voting privileges.

ALL-ROOKIE FIRST TEAM (in order of voting for ROY): Paul, Villanueva, Frye, Raymond Felton, Andrew Bogut

ROOKIE SECOND TEAM: Deron Williams, Salim Stoudamire, Danny Granger, Luther Head, Sarunas Jaskievicus, with close entries Nate Robinson, Marvin Williams, Ryan Gomes (all these guys are in the same group, really)

The most improved player is also easy. Phoenix’s Boris Diaw, who couldn’t even play for the Hawks but somehow became a major contributor for the Suns. Other people who stepped up include New Orlean’s David West and San Antonio’s Tony Parker.

MIP: 1. Diaw
2. West
3. Parker
4. Dwight Howard
5. Elton Brand

Sixth man of the year – most people are going for Mike Miller, an important part of the Grizzlies, and he’s good. I liked Jerry Stackhouse before the season, and both of these guys are deft scorers whose teams use their benches heavily. Also in the mix is New Orleans’ Speedy Claxton. I’ll go with Miller, who is probably the second most important player on the Griz after Gasol.
1. Miller
2. Stackhouse
3. Claxton
4. Donyell Marshall
5. Shaun Livingston

I suppose that’s it. I’ll update my playoff picks if they fail after every round. Which they almost certainly will.