RETRO: 2005-06 NBA preview

For years I’ve been making NBA predictions whilst dying in class or on the, uhh, seats of certain things or just bored and never had anywhere to display it, other than my high school newspaper once that no one read or my college radio show that no one listened to. But now I can sign and date my NBA thoughts, the sport and league that first sparked my interest and what I considered to be my career calling for a long time. I’m happy I’m not now, though this film business is no easier, but I need to still vent now and then. I know that technically I’m late on this; games started last Tuesday. But you need to wait until the very last minute for trades and the Magliorre one may have an impact. Plus, the crazy first week isn’t going to affect my choices because first weeks are always crazy. So here’s my predicted approximate win totals for each team and a quick review. Eastern first.

15. Charlotte Bobcats 13-17 wins

They’re slowly getting there. Drafting Ray Felton was forgivable after Chris Paul was gone (that draft just didn’t work out well, very awkward lottery), but Sean May won’t start and taking him over a lot of wings was questionable. They have no shooting and not much scoring. But they’re still on a decent track for an expansion team.

14. Toronto Raptors 22-25

They suck and they know it. Chris Bosh is good and that’s it. They have continually brought in bad points guards and big men. Villanueva might not be that bad, but it doesn’t matter. Worst run team in the league, even more than the Clippers now. Remaining talent keeps them from the bottom.

13. Atlanta Hawks 27-30

Still bad, but better. They’ll actually be fun to watch, for the first time since HHF Nique was there. I don’t think this all-wing approach will work out in the long run, but they have some good people and they should be able to score. No D. No big men/rebounding. Josh Smith and Joe Johnson are a nice tandem. Might have to let Al Harrington go.

12. Boston Celtics 32-35

Will they trade Paul Pierce? Probably….. they’re young and they should have trouble getting anywhere this year. Need to settle on a point and wait for draftees to produce.

11. New York Knicks 34-36

Sorry, Larry, this team sucks. Even with Eddy Curry doing well. They used to play D and now they have none of it. If you start Matt Barnes and whoever of your five undersized power forwards in the frontcourt, you have problems. Maybe next year. And why they signed Jerome James, who didn’t even have a good contract season, just a few good playoff games against a team without a center, is beyond me.

No wait, it isn’t. Isiah did it.

Isiah Thomas: the grim reaper of all things front office.

10. Orlando Magic 35-38

I thought they were a playoff team in my preview last year. I was very high on them making it in, and they started out fine and should have, but then they traded Cuttino Mobely for no reason. Terrible. He and Francis could’ve carried them until Dwight Howard was ready. Now, they’re back to total dysfunction. Thankfully, they still have Howard, who should be a great big man eventually. Need an overhaul of management so he doesn’t bolt.

9. Milwaukee Bucks 38-40

The Magliorre trade was a steal, and if T. J. Ford is back for good, they have an excellent shot at making it back to the playoffs. Bogut has less pressure and they’re not small anymore up front. But in the addition of Simmons and the subtraction of Des Mason, they’re now an entirely jump shooting team. Mason at least brought athleticism. Which means that until Bogut becomes a real post threat, they’re not anymore than a low playoff seed and a continuation of the recent Bucks.

8. Philadelphia 76ers 40-44

What do I think of the hometown boys? First, I think Chris Webber is a good addition to Iverson. He’s a quality big man, and he can shoot. I always though he or Rasheed Wallace would be the best compliment to AI. I don’t think there’s any reason from him not to get 20, even if Iverson gets 30. This can work.

Why then, am I not so high on the Sixers? There isn’t anyone else. There isn’t enough D. Iverson and Webber can score 60 and they’ll have a tough time. Sam Dalembert, a guy I rooted for many years ago, is still raw. Maybe he’ll never get there. He can block shots but gets muscled around. When they had Theo Ratliff, they at least had maulers like Tyrone Hill next to him. Webber grabs boards but can’t do much defensively. Kyle Korver can shoot and that’s it. He is not a major player. If he has to start and play more than 30 minutes, they lose a lot more than they gain. Igualadala is a quality player and good defender, but not much offense.

They have no depth at all. If Willie Green was healthy, and they could move Korver to the bench, and they had a bruising big man like other teams do, they might have a chance. They have none of that now. They could go after George Lynch. He’s available, but old. They need to worry about D first, which is what they had when they were a contender….. Four defensive minded guys around Iverson. Their bench is a mesh of CBA and NBDL players. A few signings might help, but they have too much tied up in contracts.

So I can't see them moving past a low seed in the playoffs. They don't have enough and any injury is going to kill them. They could fall back into the lottery, but that might be the only place they can find help anymore.

7. Chicago Bulls 41-45

Hard to define this team. They rose huge last year and would seem to be on the way up. Then they lost Eddy Curry, which is fine defensively but kills their offense. And they won’t sneak up on anyone this year. Still, they have developing guys. Tyson Chandler must be healthy. Loul Deng could make a big leap.

6. Washington Wizards 43-47

Losing Larry Hughes is rough, but they should replace him okay with Caron Butler. They’re about the same as last year. The conference is better, so they can’t go as far, but they are a good playoff team.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers 47-50

LeBron James = great. They have shooters off the bench now to compliment him. They have bog men. They have Hughes to take off pressure. They’re not on the level of the big three in the East yet, but they will be. Step one is making the playoffs.

4. New Jersey Nets 48-51 (will be third seed)

Should win their division easily. I don’t know if trading Kenyon Martin, then picking up Vince Carter for those pieces, is a good move. At least Martin brought D and was an all-star in the East, where he could play the four spot. Still, if they can find a way to get a decent four man who can run (Chris Wilcox? Drew Gooden?) they will be better.

3. Detroit Pistons 53-56 (will be fourth seed)

I don’t see a big dropoff without Larry. They’ve done too well to change things. Flip will use the bench more, which is nice, but they still have a strong starting five and will be in it. Only Miami and Indiana’s improvements can stop them.

2. Indiana Pacers 56-59

Without any blowups or injuries, they can go far. Deep and talented. Won’t miss Reggie until they get in a tight spot. They can only stop themselves.

1. Miami Heat 59-62

Like the Pacers, they are their own worst opponent. Toine may not fit in, but they don’t even need him when Shaq and Wade are healthy. But that’s not going to be too often, so he will get a chance to be a major player. Was it a good move? Maybe. I think they make the finals because David Stern wants them to. Shaq-Duncan is the best matchup there is to offer nowadays. Of course, it’s really going to be all about Dwyane Wade.

WEST

15. New Orleans Hornets 16-19

Terrible, displaced, and traded away all their good people. May get a few wins on heart and youth. My boy Rasual Butler should be the shooter off the bench for the Heat. They didn’t have to do this to him. Chris Paul will win rookie of the year because he’ll have the best chance to put up major numbers right away…. Because there’s no one else to do it.

14. Portland Trail Blazers 24-27

Need a lot of time. Zach Randolph can put up numbers, but is he a franchise player? Will their backcourt ever mature? Not yet. Don’t know why Nate McMillan came here.

13. Los Angeles Clippers 34-37

I really, really, really want them to make the playoffs and show up the Lakers again. I pray for it. I want to make that pick. But it’s the Clippers and I can’t do it. Brining in a veteran backup to Shaun Livingston was good….. except that it’s Sam Cassell. If he ruined Minnesota, a contender team with a MVP, how’s he going to fare here? They should have a strong future, but they’ll probably find a way to ruin it somehow. All because the evil lord Sterling doesn’t care.

12. Utah Jazz 38-41

Could bounce back stronger than this, but I don’t know. Last year they had people and they fell apart. Carlos Boozer did well. Andre Kirilenko might make a difference. Hard to tell where they will go, especially without an experienced point.

11. Los Angeles Lakers 40-43

Despite the return of Phil, I can’t see them being that much better. Kwame Brown isn’t going to replace Caron just yet. Smush Parker is starting? He wasn’t even a star on a bad Fordham team. Chris Mihm is not a starter, but there’s no one else yet. Basically, it’s Kobe and Lamar Odom doing everything again. Which might be like those old Bulls teams, but they don’t have the role players. And Odom, right now, is no Scottie Pippen.

10. Memphis Grizzlies 41-44

They made a huge change, but I don’t know if they got any better. They needed to get another true post player next to Pau Gasol, and another scorer that could put in close to 20 a game. They got neither. Maybe they will function better as a team, and they have depth at every spot but center, but they just don’t seem all that talented. Mike Miller needs to step it up.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves 42-45

See above. They traded some problems, but they don’t have enough help around KG. Marko Jaric and Troy Hudson are an okay duo at point. If Wally World can get back to an all-star level, maybe they have a shot. Rashad McCants needs to fill it up. And Olwokandi needs to stop being a bitch. I don’t see it happening, but KG could carry them into the playoffs if a couple teams slip up.

8. Golden State Warriors 44-47

Yes, I’m jumping on their bandwagon. Maybe because I feel so bad for them- their playoff drought is longer than even the Clippers’. Maybe because I was there, as a 12 year old visiting Phoenix, the last time they were in the postseason (April 1994, Chris Webber’s rookie year). They were building their team up the past few years, and all they needed was more post depth and a point guard. Then they drafted Ike Diogu and Chris Taft and stole Baron Davis for basically nothing. Now, they have a good shot, pending on Davis’ health. I think it can happen. I hope. They don’t have the Clipper curse or bad ownership (actually I hear this guy is a dick, but anyway) so they might…. just … hopefully…

7. Seattle Super Sonics 45-48

They can’t be as good as last year, yes. But I don’t know if they’re going to fall off like many have suggested. They really didn’t change much. Their young guys had more time to develop. They won’t surprise anyone, but losing a coach is not a big deal when all they did was shoot threes anyway. If their division is better, maybe they’ll slip more. But this is the same team, essentially.

6. Phoenix Suns 49-52

Now here’s a team that could slip. They lost Johnson, Richardson, and will not have Amare for most of the year. With only Steve Nash and Shawn Marion left, they could struggle. James Jones, Raja Bell, Jimmy Jackson, and Kurt Thomas are better role players to have around them, but without the big man, Marion is the only guy here. They’ll be struggling bad until Amare comes back, but then they’ll be tough. They could make a run through the playoffs late.
5. Sacramento Kings 51-54 (will be third seed)

They can easily win this division with the Suns hurting. Their starting lineup is pretty solid, and they have depth up front. The problem is that none of these guys is a franchise player. All solid, none spectacular. Which means they’ll make the playoffs again, but not go anywhere, again. Mike Bibby is the only one with any heart, and deserves to be an all-star mainly because there aren’t many better points.

4. Denver Nuggets 52-55 (will be second seed)

They only need to improve a little bit from last year to win this division. They didn’t pick up anyone new, but Carmelo should come back strong and Andre Miller & Kenyon Martin should have more luck this year. Earl Watson might mean more of lil’ Boykins at off guard, where he can cause trouble. Basically, if they play like they did late, they can benefit from the imbalance in the conference and go far.

3. Houston Rockets 54-57 (will be fifth seed)

(note: I have to say how I really hate the seeding arrangements. Unlike the NFL and baseball, where teams play their own divisional teams much more than the league/conference, NBA teams play their outside division foes almost as much as their inside division foes. So why give them so much divisional preference in seeding? Just go 1-8 and make sure the division winners make it. That’s it. If the best two teams are in the same conference, they deserve to meet in the conference finals, not the second round. Watch what happens when the three best teams in the west are in the same division (and state, coincidentally) and they all end up in the same half of the bracket.. Totally ruins the point.)

That rant was necessary in light of the Rockets being maybe the second best team in the conference and yet so overlooked. Because there are two teams in their division (and state, of course) that are tough, yet they would own all the others. Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming are too good to have to lose in the first round because of matchups. Stromile Swift gives them a good four, which they haven’t had in a while. They don’t have much in the backcourt, but they only need a little.

2. Dallas Mavericks 56-59 (will be fourth seed)

See Rockets. They win close to 60 games every year but just can’t get past the Spurs. Dirk Nowitzki puts up MVP numbers, but doesn’t play enough d to get it. Without Michael Finley, they lose some focus, although they have plenty of depth on the wing. Erick Dampier needs to be more consistent, and Jason Terry actually could be the second scorer they are looking for. Will most likely be forgotten again.

1. San Antonio Spurs 66-69

There really isn’t anything to stop them. They would’ve reached nearly 68 wins last year if Duncan had stayed healthy. They fell apart without him, which only shows how valuable he is, and it made them look like they were bad on the road. Please. They can get to 70 if they have no injuries. They have depth and quality. Should win it all without problems.

PLAYOFFS

Second rounders: San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, Denver Miami, Detroit, Indiana, New Jersey

Conference finals: San Antonio roughs up Denver, Miami barely outlasts Indiana

NBA FINALS: San Antonio takes down Miami in six

MVP: Tim Duncan (should always be if he’s healthy)

COY: Stan Van Gundy (unless a surprise team shows up, he gets it for holding team together)

DEF: Tim Duncan (yes, he does that well too)

ROY: Chris Paul (will be the only one to have good numbers)

It would be nice to see someone catch San Antonio. I honestly think the only teams that can catch them and win it all are in the East, not the West, so you can see how much things have changed. Miami, Indiana, and Detroit have a better shot than Dallas or Houston. But again, barring injuries, the Spurs will demolish people.