SHAWN BRADLEY WILL PUNK YOU

Pitt Men's Basketball: Disappointment or Secret Success?

2011-04-06T05:30:00.001-07:00

After another weird March Madness, I was wondering what to think of college basketball's power teams. It seems like mid-majors are catching up, so the definition of what a "power" team is might be changing. I want to focus on teams that have good programs but can't win in the tournament. This will not be a very in-depth analysis of the college game, because frankly, I haven't paid much attention to it since graduating and have merely dabbled to get a look at pro prospects.

I was chuckling to a few Pitt fans (having grown up in the middle of the Pitt - Penn State rivalry, I always liked to rib them, even if basketball isn't really the main sport to do so over) about their loss to Butler. I remarked that Pitt went from being a surprisingly good program to now maybe being a little overrated. I said that, while they have had amazing success in the regular season, they sure seem to fall apart quickly in the big dance.

Several people told me that Pitt is overachieving, given that Western PA locally does not care about basketball nearly as much as football, they don't get top recruits, that they don't have the glamour of the other Big East programs, and they have to scrap for people. I won't argue with that. But since they can beat those other Big East teams in the regular season, and the Big East is maybe the strongest conference around (and put 11 schools in the tourney this year), why can't they win in March? Are they now one of the biggest chokers? Or are they just overachievers whose talent level is exposed late? I don't know. But I wanted to have some data.

I decided to look at which major basketball programs had the most embarrassing losses in the tournament recently. I knew some obvious ones off the top of my head, but I wanted to go back and check for the past decade or so.

What counts as an embarrassing loss? I decided to qualify it as this:

A team loses to another team slotted at least 6 spots less than them (1 loses to 7 or lower, 2 loses to 8 or lower);

1 and 2 seeds who don't get out of first weekend;

3 seed or 4 seed loses in the first round.

I think that's pretty good for determining an embarrassing loss. If you are a 1 or 2 seed, the NCAA committee expects you to go pretty far. Not making it out of the first weekend is a disappointment. 3 and 4 seeds shouldn't lose in the first round. 5 seeds do often, as we know, but it hurts.

Let's look at some major programs with some bad losses in the tourney over the past 15 years....

Kansas

1998 - 1 lost to 8 in first weekend
2005 - 3 lost to 14 in first game
2006 - 4 lost to 13 in first game
2010 - 1 lost to 9 in first weekend
2011 - 1 lost to 11 (but made elite eight)

Kansas has had some awful, awful showings. They couldn't make a final four in the late 90's with a stud lineup that included Paul Pierce, Jacque Vaughn, Raef LaFrentz and others. They couldn't have had an easier route this year, but blew it. They have a lot of bad upsets... but, of course, they won it all in 2008, almost won it all in 2003, and made another Final Four in 2002. That's 3 Final Fours in a decade, which is pretty nice. Considering their recruiting, they really should be a contender every year, so the pressure is high.

Duke

1997 - 2 lost to 10 in first weekend
2008 - 2 lost to 7 in first weekend

Duke doesn't have a ton of very bad losses, but they have a lot of losing in the Sweet Sixteen, which I did not include on here. Considering their recruiting, they should be a 1 or 2 seed every year... and they are, usually. For all their losses as a 1 seed before the Final Four, they do have two titles and another FF appearance this decade, plus a near title in '99. Although I will contend that they never faced anyone that great last year. Yes, I'm still pissed.

Cincinnati

1998 - 2 lost to 10 in first weekend
2000 - 2 lost to 10 in first weekend
2002 - 1 lost to 8 in first weekend

The Bearcats under Bob Huggins were an erratic team. They recruited well by recruiting shady guys, dominated a mid major, and always seems to blow it in the tourney. But, he did get them to a Final Four in the early 90's. And they might have done more in 2000 with a healthy Kenyon Martin.

Wisconsin

1999 - 5 lost to 12 in first game
2007 - 2 lost to 7 in first weekend
2008 - 3 lost to 10 (but they did make sweet sixteen)
2010 - 4 lost to 12 in first weekend

It's hard to believe that Wisconsin is even considered a power, but they usually get a decent seed for the tournament. I don't think they get any of the best recruits in the Big Ten, but they win in the regular season. Are they comparable to Pitt? They have their one shining moment, though, making the Final Four as an 8 seed.

Wake Forest

2003 - 2 lost to 10 in first weekend
2005 - 2 lost to 7 in first weekend
2009 - 4 lost to 13 in first game

Wake Forest isn't a consistent power, but they've had some very good teams and 3 good players. They haven't made a Final Four despite a few good years from Tim Duncan and Chris Paul. Duncan did make the Elite Eight, but to have a dominant big man for 4 years and later the best point guard for 2 ... and never get to the Final Four? Somewhat disappointing?

Vanderbilt

2008 - 4 lost to 13 in first game
2010 - 4 lost to 13 in first game
2011 - 5 lost to 12 in first game

I didn't think Vanderbilt was such a consistent tournament team, but they make it more often that not. Considering that they are the only academically-minded school in the SEC, I guess it's nice that they can compete. It would be helpful if they ever won a game, though. (They did make a Sweet Sixteen earlier this decade.)

Stanford

1999 - 2 lost to 10 in first weekend
2000 - 1 lost to 8 in first weekend
2004 - 1 lost to 8 in first weekend

For a while, Mike Montgomery had Stanford at the top of the Pac Ten. He made a surprise Final Four trip in 1998 and helped them get big seeds for a while before he left. They had a few bad losses as high seeds, however, and haven't done much in the past five years.

Georgetown

2008 - 2 lost to 10 in first weekend
2010 - 3 lost to 14 in first game

After making a Final Four in 2007, Georgetown has done awful in the tournament despite some good players and some high seeds. They don't recruit like they did in the 80's, but they do have access to the D.C. metro area, which has produced some of the best talent of late. If it wasn't for that '07 run, they might be considered one of the biggest disappointments.

Pitt

2002 - 3 lost to 10 (but did make sweet sixteen)
2006 - 5 lost to 13 in first weekend
2011 - 1 lost to 8 in first weekend

Lastly, here's Pitt. Since 2002, they've been in the tourney consistently. They've had a couple high seeds and a couple mid seeds. They only made the Elite Eight once, no Final Four. They only have 3 losses that stand out, and two of them weren't extremely terrible. They're less of a choker than some other big name programs... but, they don't have that Final Four appearance to give them some credibility. Out of all these programs I've listed, most have made the last weekend at least once. Pitt has not, despite some chances.

Let's try one more stat: I'm going to list all the schools that have gotten a number one seed over the past 15 years and how many times they did it, since Pitt has done it twice. Let's see....

Duke - 10 times a # 1 seed
Kansas - 7 times
North Carolina - 6 times
Michigan State, UConn, Arizona, Kentucky, Stanford - 3 times
Pitt, Ohio State, Illinois, Memphis - 2 times
Syracuse, UCLA, Florida, Villanova, Louisville, Washington, St. Joseph's, Oklahoma, Texas, Cincinnati, Maryland, Auburn, Minnesota - once

As I expected, Pitt is the only team in the past 15 years to receive a # 1 seed more than once, but yet not make a Final Four in that span. [Notice that a lot of these schools did NOT make the Final Four in the year that they got the # 1 seed, but in another year.] Out of the 25 teams here, only 5 of them did not make any Final Four in the span.

And as for the teams that just had one great showing... Pitt is not just a one time wonder (like St. Joe's or Auburn or Minnesota); they've had several high seeds. That seems disappointing.

I don't know if these number suggest Pitt is a failure or not. There are so many factors here, from recruiting to officiating to the parity that seems to exist now in college basketball. Pitt's staff from Ben Howland to Jame Dixon to the whole athletic department deserves a ton of credit for turning them around. I never expected them to become a perennial power back in the late 90's. I thought maybe their football team would return to some relevance, but basketball has been way more successful. I just don't know what to make of their tournament problems. As Gene Keady or John Chaney will tell you, having a good program but not making any Final Fours will leave you wanting. We'll see if Dixon can get them there.

Contraction Draft: A possible fix?

2011-03-17T03:29:00.000-07:00

With a labor dispute looming, some teams in financial crisis, and the NBA taking a weird step in owning a team, there has been talk of contraction. Some have speculated for many years that the league should subtract a few teams. The talent level is good right now, but pundits are getting worried that all the stars are flocking to a few select teams (mainly based off what the Heat did, and also Melo forcing his way to New York). I don't think it's going to become like that, but I have thought about contraction for a while.

Every year, I ask myself what would happen if the league lost 2 more more teams and condensed rosters. I even have a mock draft to see what might happen. I was inspired by this way back in 2003 or so when Bill Simmons tried to see what would happen if recent expansion teams were shut down. I don't think we need to kill 4 teams; 2 always seems like a nice number. That would push the number back down to 28, in 4 divisions. I've complained about the 6 division format a million times on here and I desperately want them to go back to how it was before 2005. It's so much easier. If this helps, I'm for it.

I don't know how the financials would work or if any of this is legal. I'm not worried about it, because this is just hypothetical anyway. I merely want to see how much the talent level would be raised.

So who am I cutting? I thought about the teams with the worst fan support, or who have been losing the most money, or smallest market, or are worth the least, or are just bad and poorly run. I'm considering all of these and picking a team from each conference. The Hornets are an obvious choice because they are already in a state of flux, being owned by the league. They are a good team, though, and they have a solid coach and front office staff minus ownership. I hate to break them up, so I have a quirky solution: much like Bud Selig arranged for some owners to dump one franchise for another, I propose that the Hornets move back to Charlotte under Michael Jordan's ownership (but he should cut his front office people, they're terrible) and the Bobcat players are dispersed. The Bobcats have a terrible roster, despite their playoff contention, and no stars. They could be cut and no one would notice. Meanwhile, the long-suffering city of Charlotte would have an exciting team again with North Carolina natives Chris Paul and David West. This move might ensure that they stay with the team, instead of bolting for bigger markets. Sorry, New Orleans, but there's too many problems.

My other team is the Sacramento Kings. I hate to do this because they have an interesting roster and are one of the league's oldest franchises, but if they're seriously considering becoming the third team in one Southern California market, they need to go. If the Maloofs need the money so bad, I propose they just cut their losses and sell the team to the league. I wish it was the Clippers being contracted, but it seems like they'll just keep surviving somehow. This would give me some pleasure, but there's a lot of stuff I would change if I was in charge - Charlotte never would have given up the Hornets, George Shinn would've just sold them to Jordan and Bob Johnson in the first place; there would be no Grizzlies; the Sonics would be in Seattle; and Oklahoma City would be a nice backup plan for any other team that needed to move. We can't solve all these problems, but we can improve some if we dumped these two teams.

So, let's begin: the Bobcats and Kings are disbanded. All their players enter a supplemental draft held right after the season ends. Their contracts are still guaranteed by the league, although there aren't too many big deals left. Teams can draft them, and are responsible for paying their salaries. Those not selected will become free agents, although they will still get paid what they are owed. The draft order is based solely on record, from worst to first. No lottery.

Here's a look at how it might play out.....

1. Cleveland - Tyreke Evans
2. Minnesota - DeMarcus Cousins * (trade)
3. Washington - Gerald Henderson
4. Toronto - Omri Casspi
5. Detroit - Jason Thompson
6. New Jersey - D. J. Augustin (for trade)
7. L.A. Clippers - Stephen Jackson
8. Milwaukee - Boris Diaw
9. Indiana - Tyrus Thomas
10. Golden State - Hassan Whiteside
11. Phoenix - Marcus Thornton
12. Houston - Donte Greene
13. Philadelphia - Samuel Dalembert * (trade)
14. New York - Joel Pryzbilla
15. Utah - Francisco Garcia
16. Memphis - Beno Udrih
17. Portland - D.J. White
18. New Orleans (new Charlotte) - Dominic McGuire
19. Atlanta - Kwame Brown
20. Denver - Dante Cunningham
21. Orlando - DeSanga Diop

...and that probably ends it.

I made a faux trade too: Philly admits they screwed up last year, and sends the 11 pick in the contraction draft (Dalembert), their first round pick in this year's regular draft, and Evan Turner to Minnesota for the second pick in the contraction draft (Cousins) and Wayne Ellington. Minnesota didn't need another head case, but didn't want to waste their pick, so now they have Turner (who they wanted last year) and someone to block shots and play D. Works out well for both.

Let's look at how this improves some of the league's bottom feeders. Cleveland gets a new star in Evans; Minnesota gets two starters; Washington gets another young wing; Toronto gets another international player and shores up its small forward spot; Detroit gets another big man they desperately need; New Jersey gets more prospects or insurance for Deron leaving; the Clips get a sold wing who will help until Aminu is ready; Milwaukee gets post help; Indiana really is excited to have an athletic big guy; Golden State gets a big man project; Phoenix gets a wing scorer to replace Jason Richardson; Houston gets another young prospect; Philly finally gets a center; and other teams get depth where they need it. Half the teams in the league are severely improved by this, and the ripple effect of guys being traded and moved around will probably help some of the good teams get even more depth.

Think about what this does for talent levels and teams that have major holes. Cleveland suddenly looks a lot better and won't have to use NBDL guys at wing. Toronto doesn't have journeymen at small forward. Detroit and Philly don't have to play undersized. New Jersey gets depth. The Clips get an important wing piece. Indiana goes from terrible at the power forward spot to intriguing.

I don't want to take away jobs; I think the league could expand roster size so that the total number of players remains the same. I do want players to be earning their spots instead of being the only option. This will move some of the weaker starters around the league to the bench, and weaker rotation players to the end of the bench. I want that.

It's hard to come up with a constant number of teams based on talent because the level is always changing; 10 years ago it was bad, but after some good drafts, I feel better. (Look how many bad teams were at least fine with their point guard spot. No one needed Augustin, who should've been picked high.) But everything is always fluctuating.

This was just an experiment, and I think it showed that maybe just 2 teams would help. I don't think it will happen, and I don't know what other changes will be made this summer. I just wanted to see what would happen, and I propose that the NBA at least consider this as a way to improve itself.

The 2000's: The End of Curses and Droughts?

2011-02-15T05:41:00.001-08:00

After the Giants won the series, their first in 50 years, I thought back to some of the long droughts that ended this decade, like the Red Sox, Saints, Blackhawks and White Sox. It seemed like a lot of franchises in all 4 major pro sports were finally breaking through over the past 10 or so years. The Red Sox certainly got the most attention, but I had a feeling that many other teams had won a title or made a final game for the first time ever, or in a long time. I decided to look up and see how many there actually were.

And yes, there were quite a few.

Teams that won a championship this decade for the first time ever, or the first time in a long time (more than 35 years):

St. Louis Rams '00 (see also: Arizona Cardinals '09) - The Rams won their first Super Bowl (they had lost one while in Los Angeles). This was their first overall title since 1951 (pre-Super Bowl era), and first since moving in 1995. This was also the first NFL title for the city of St. Louis, as the football Cardinals never won anything while they were there.

Baltimore Ravens '01 (see also: Indianapolis Colts '07) - The Ravens won their first Super Bowl since moving in 1996. Baltimore the city already had titles with the Colts, but this was the first for the "new" franchise. If you count their previous history as the Browns, it was still their first Super Bowl appearance and win.

Arizona Diamondbacks '01 - Won first title in first World Series appearance after only 4 seasons of existence. Yeah, I know, not much of a drought..... but, they were the first team from that state to win a title. Arizona has had pro teams since 1969, although up until the 80's it was just the Suns.

New England Patriots '02 - Won first Super Bowl. Franchise started in 1960.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers '03 - Won first Super Bowl in first appearance. Franchise started in 1976. They sure seemed cursed for a long time; maybe it was just those orange jerseys.

Anaheim / Los Angeles Angels '02 - Won first title ever in first trip to World Series. Franchise started in 1961.

Tampa Bay Lightning '04 - Won first Stanley Cup. Franchise started in 1992, despite questions about why they'd put a hockey team in Florida.

Boston Red Sox '04 - Won title for first time since 1918. You may have heard about this.

Chicago White Sox '05 - Won title for first time since 1917, in first trip to World Series since 1959. Yes, they were out longer than the Red Sox but got less attention, probably because everyone knows where their bad karma came from.

Carolina Hurricanes '06 - Won first Stanley Cup, including time as Hartford Whalers, who joined NHL in 1979.

Miami Heat '06 - Won first NBA title in first finals trip ever. Franchise started in 1988.

Indianapolis Colts '07 - As stated, the Colts had won Super Bowls in Baltimore, but this was the first pro title of any kind for the state of Indiana. The Colts moved to Indy in 1984.

Anaheim Ducks '07 - Won first Stanley Cup. Franchise started in 1993. Unfortunately, the junior world titles accumulated under the reign of Emilio Estevez did not count.

New Orleans Saints '10 - Won first title in first trip to Super Bowl. Franchise started in 1967.

Chicago Blackhawks '10 - Won Stanley Cup for first time since 1961.

San Francisco Giants '10 - Won title for first time since 1954, and first ever since they moved west.

And the Phillies..... Philadelphia had the infamous curse of William Penn, so named for the old rule that no building could be made higher than the statue of Billy Penn that sits atop city hall. This rule was broken in the mid 80's, and since it happened, no team had won a title, until the Phils. Now, 1983-2008 may not seem like a super long time. 25 years, compared to some of these franchises, isn't much. But when you consider the fact that Philly has 4 teams, to not have any of them win any titles in 25 years is a big stretch. Consider all the cities that have 4 or more teams. None of them had longer streaks. Even the cities with 3 pro teams didn't have as long of a winless streak at the time the Phillies won.... well, except for one.... you can guess who that is....

Cities with 3 or more teams (4 or more get an *), with last title won, as of September 2008 [last title in brackets]:

Atlanta* [Braves '95], Boston* [Red Sox '07], Cleveland [err...Browns '64], Chicago* [White Sox '05], Dallas* [Stars '99], Detroit* [Pistons '04], Denver* [Avalanche '01], Houston [Rockets '94], Los Angeles* [Lakers '03], Miami* [Heat '06], Minneapolis* [Twins '91], New York* [Giants '08], Oakland [A's '89], Phoenix* [D-Backs '01], Philly* [Sixers '83], Pittsburgh [Steelers '05], St. Louis [Cardinals '06], Tampa Bay [Lightning '04], Toronto [Blue Jays '93], Washington* [Redskins '92]

(....and if you want to include North Carolina with Charlotte/Raleigh [Hurricanes '06] and Wisconsin with Milwaukee/Green Bay [Packers '97], they were more recent too.)

So maybe it was a big deal that Philly overcame that. Sorry, Cleveland.

Teams that made a championship game/finals appearance for the first time:

Already covered - winners in their first appearance - Diamondbacks, Angels, Ravens, Lightning, Heat, Saints

Tennessee Titans '00 - First Super Bowl appearance, not only for their brief time in Nashville, but also counting their previous years as the Houston Oilers. The Oilers won the AFL title in 1961, but never made the Super Bowl once it started.

Indiana Pacers '00 - First finals appearance. Franchise joined NBA in 1976.

New Jersey Nets '02 - First finals appearance. Franchise joined NBA in 1976.

Carolina Panthers '04 - First Super Bowl appearance. Franchise started in 1995. Not that long, but they had some terrible luck and tragedy.

Houston Astros '05 - First World Series appearance. Franchise started in 1962.

Seattle Seahawks '06 - First Super Bowl appearance. Franchise started in 1976.

Dallas Mavericks '06 - First finals appearance. Franchise started in 1980.

Ottawa Senators '07 - First finals appearance. Franchise started in 1992.

Cleveland Cavaliers '07 - First finals appearance. Franchise started in 1970. Despite Dan Gilbert's promise, this is probably not going to happen again anytime soon.

Colorado Rockies '07 - First World Series appearance. Franchise started in 1993.

Tampa Bay Rays '08 - First World Series appearance. Franchise started in 1998. Not long, but after (all their) 10 seasons only finishing dead last, it was a surprise run.

Arizona Cardinals '09 - First Super Bowl appearance. First NFL title game appearance in Phoenix. They last won the NFL title in 1947, long before the Super Bowl era, when they were in Chicago. They never won a title nor made it to the final game during years in St. Louis.

Texas Rangers '10 - First World Series appearance. Includes previous years as "new" Washington Senators. Lots of rough years. Franchise started in 1961.

Notable droughts (40 years or more of no titles, 50 or more with no finals appearances) still abound:

Arizona / St. Louis / Chicago Cardinals - last won NFL title in 1947, haven't won Super Bowl

Atlanta Falcons - never won NFL title or Super Bowl; franchise started in 1966

Atlanta Hawks - last won NBA title in 1958 while they were in St. Louis; have never made NBA finals since moving to Atlanta in 1968

Buffalo Bills - never won Super Bowl, despite four straight trips; franchise won AFL title in 1966; just ask Vincent Gallo

Buffalo Sabres - never won Stanley Cup; franchise started in 1970

Chicago Cubs - haven't made World Series since 1945; haven't won since 1908

Cincinnati Bengals - never won NFL title or Super Bowl; franchise started in 1968

Cleveland Browns - last won NFL title in 1964; have never made a Super Bowl (unless you count the Ravens, but they don't)

Cleveland Cavaliers - never won NBA title; franchise started in 1970

Cleveland Indians - haven't won World Series since 1948

(Cleveland, city of - lake on fire, LeBron's decision, the fumble, Jose Mesa, last title of any kind in 1964)

Denver Nuggets - never won ABA title or made NBA finals; franchise began in 1967

Detroit Lions - last won NFL title in 1957; have never made a Super Bowl

Houston Astros - never won World Series; franchise started in 1962

Houston NFL teams - haven't ever made Super Bowl; Oilers won AFL title in 1961 but never made SB; Texans haven't even made playoffs yet

Los Angeles Clippers / Buffalo Braves - have never made NBA finals; franchise started in 1970

Los Angeles Kings - never won Stanley Cup; franchise started in 1967

Milwaukee Brewers - never won World Series; franchise started in 1969

Minnesota Vikings - never won Super Bowl; franchise started in 1961

Minnesota NHL teams - North Stars never won Stanley Cup from 1967-1993; Wild has not made finals in 10 years of existence (I'm giving them this because this one of the few places in America that really REALLY cares about hockey)

Philadelphia Eagles - last won NFL title in 1960. Have not won Super Bowl. I guess this isn't the WORST place to be......

Phoenix Suns - never won NBA title; franchise started in 1969. A lot of close misses.

Sacramento / Kansas City Kings - have not won NBA title since 1951, when they were the Rochester Royals. Have not made finals since 1951 either. (Were close a few years ago before Laker shenanigans.)

San Diego Padres - never won World Series; franchise started in 1969

St. Louis Blues - never made Stanley Cup finals; franchise started in 1967

Texas Rangers - never won World Series; franchise started in 1961

Toronto Maple Leafs - haven't won Stanley Cup since 1967

Vancouver Canucks - never won Stanley Cup; franchise started in 1970

Washington Nationals / Montreal Expos - never made a World Series; franchise started in 1969

.... and maybe we can count the Jets and Chiefs, who won some of the early Super Bowls ('69, '70) but haven't made it since......

Some very early season awards

2010-12-10T01:19:00.000-08:00

It's early, but I want to track some favorites for the all-star weekend....

ROOKIE GAME

Starters (first team): Griffin, Wall, Cousins, Fields, Bledsoe

Bench: Wes Johnson, Turner, Aminu, Favors

Greg Monroe, Xavier Henry - alternates

EAST ALL STARS

Starters: Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, D Rose, Wade

Definite Bench: Pierce, Amare, Rondo

Probably Bench: Granger, Horford, Noah, ?

Other possibilites: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Bosh, Brook Lopez, Wall, Ray Felton, Stephen Jackson, Brandon Jennings

Wow, I couldn't even think of a 12th guy. I'm hoping one of the poss guys steps up. This is a sad year. Bosh might make it even though he's been a disappointment (and Wade is too, but I can't find a better two guard).

WEST ALL STARS

Starters: Dirk, P Gasol, Durant, Kobe, Deron

Definite Bench: CP, Nash, Carmelo, Ginobli, Westbrook

Probably bench: (hard to say) two of the following bigs......

Big guys that are too hard to choose between: Scola, Millsap, David West, Griffin, K Love

Other possibilites: Monta, B Roy, Rudy Gay, Duncan

I can't pick two out of those big guys. Millsap and West are very similar. The others are putting up great stats on bad teams. Hard to believe Duncan isn't a lock, but his scoring is way down. He might get respect votes anyway.

Pro Sports Teams in Relation to Media Markets: Who's Hanging with the Big Boys?

2010-12-01T09:02:00.001-08:00

Every so often, I like to look at the rankings for media markets in the US and compare them to the teams in every major sports league. Media markets are major cities, or a group of minor cities put together, ranked by number of viewers. Every individual media market must have its own broadcast television stations (NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, and maybe CW and PBS) to be counted. For example, Lancaster is part of the central PA market (with Harrisburg and York) because it has its own NBC station, and Harrisburg has CBS and ABC and so forth. It is NOT considered an outreach of Philadelphia, even though that's the major city nearby. Allentown and Bethlehem do count for Philly, however, because they don't have their own local channels (save for a PBS or indy station).

These rankings include suburbs and surrounding areas, so television executives, marketers, and sports officials look at them more than just pure population for determining which cities have the most potential fans. There are a million other factors that go into where they put teams, of course, but this is a big one, and I like to check the media market rankings to see if they match up to teams. With 30 teams in most leagues (and 32 in the NFL), we would think that most sports would try to only try to have teams in the 30-35 biggest markets. But that's not always the case.....

Let's take a look at the biggest media markets and what teams they have. Cities with a Big-4 next to them mean that they have a team in all four major sports (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL), although I don't really put hockey on the same level as the rest of them, and football is usually worth the most.

Here are Nielsen's 55 biggest media markets in 2010:

1. New York (big-4) (9 teams overall)

2. Los Angeles (not a big-4 right now, but soon, and they still have 6 overall)

3. Chicago (big-4) (5 overall)

These are the big three; they can hold multiple teams in one sport, have boatloads of money, and spend a lot. They get the goods.

4. Philadelphia (big-4)

Surprised? Yes, Philly, you are next in line after the big boys. I know it seems hard to believe sometimes, and it really pisses me off that it took so long for the Phillies to start spending cash, but my beloved city is 4th in the nation, ahead of many big names.

5. Dallas (big-4)

HATE, but they have money and they use it.

6. San Francisco - Oakland - San Jose (big-4, combined, overall 6 combined)

This study puts all three of these Bay Area cities together, which says something about how maybe they're overrated individually. Baseball and football have tried to cram 2 teams into this market, with sketchy results. Other than the Giants, they all need to find new stadiums. And they've ignored San Jose and the south land strip (Silicon Valley and such) of the Bay, which contributes a ton of people. If Philly and Dallas couldn't support more than one team in a sport, and they're ranked higher.... well, maybe having 2 teams in the Bay is not a great idea.

7. Boston (big-4)

They seem like one of the top 3 or 4, but they're actually a little lower on the list. They always have cash though.

8. Atlanta (big-4)

The old south's biggest city never seems to have great fan support, but it is big. A lot of these numbers are transplant yuppies, I'm guessing.

9. Washington (big-4)

This study puts San Fran and Oakland together but separates Baltimore and Washington. (This is true for their major TV stations). Our nation's capital is still decently ranked, but seems like the weakest fan support of all the major northeast cities. Again, I think it's transplants... and certain undercover communists working to keep the Steel Curtain manifesto in power.

10. Houston (3 major)

As much as I hate Texas, I didn't think they deserved to lose the Oilers. They do well in other sports; you know they're gonna show up for football.

11. Detroit (big-4)

Still big, but they used to be higher. One of the great Big-4 cities of old has gone downhill. They still support everyone well, but that might change soon.

12. Phoenix (big-4)

People like going to Arizona. They keep rising in population. What's interesting is that they have a lot of retirees and transplants, yet they have better fan support then other cities of the same make-up such as San Diego and all the Florida towns. The only sport that suffered was football, but that was when they played in a college stadium and had horrible owners. But the Suns have always done well, baseball is a new hit, and the hockey team impressed Wayne Gretsky enough to buy it. My hat's off to you, Arizona, even though I have no interest in ever becoming part of that.

13. Seattle (2)

This is a travesty. One of the smartest, most-moved-to, and yet still sports-crazy cities has gotten shit on constantly throughout the past few years. Just look at where Oklahoma City is on this list and ask yourself why David Stern thought if was fine for the Sonics to move. Atrocious.

14. Tampa Bay (Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater) (3 inc. hockey)

You may wonder why the hell there are 3 teams in Tampa. It's actually a decent-sized market, the biggest in Florida. It was almost in the top 10 at one point this decade. Yet no one goes to games, except the Bucs, and that's mainly because Florida loves football and they win games now. (They used to get sparse crowds in the old Big Sombrero.) No one cares that the Rays turned the corner, and I'm sure most people aren't even aware they they have a hockey team and that it won the Stanley Cup a few years ago. No matter. It's a big market, and so it gets teams.

15. Minnesota Twin Cities (Minneapolis, St. Paul) (big-4)

People seem to think of the Minnesota teams as small market, but they're not so bad. And they have all 4 sports. I think it's just because the Twins owner is/was such a cheap ass.

16. Denver (big-4)

Good sports town, not huge, but it helps to be the only major city for a lot of rocky mountain area.

17. Miami (big-4)

Possibly the most overrated place on this list. They're not huge - as we saw earlier, not even the biggest in Florida anymore - and their fan support is downright awful. They can't sell basketball tickets even with a big name team that spends, and they can't sell baseball tickets even with a large Cuban population and lots of local talent and good weather. They act like a major player and somehow have a hockey team even though the numbers suggest otherwise. We'll see how they do with future years of the Heat project and a new Marlins stadium due soon.

18. Cleveland (major 3)

I thought they'd get number 13, but hey, it's not like Seattle has has much better luck. Cleveland is a decent sized town that gets a lot of crap. Note that LeBron turned down his hometown to move up just one place on this list, to a city with MUCH worse fans, (and also turned down New York and Chicago), but considered it a good business move. Sucker.

19. Orlando (1)

This may be another big surprise for you. Orlando doesn't inspire much imagination besides boy bands and theme parks. Well, it's almost as big as Miami, and bigger than a lot of more famous cities. The NBA took advantage of this and put their second Florida team here instead of Tampa, and it's worked out well for them.

20. Sacramento (1)

Another surprise. No one thinks of Sacto as a major city, but this is California's third largest market, not San Diego. With this area, comprised of Sacto, Modesto, and Stockton, along with another one nearby in Fresno, there are actually a lot of people not on the coast in CA. The NBA once again took advantage of this fact and, instead of putting a second team in the Bay Area, had a team move out here, where it received more attention. Unfortunately, it looks like the Kings may be moving soon. I'm surprised more teams don't consider this, especially as an alternative to the Bay, although I hear that the A's are looking to move so that they are in between Oakland and here to tap into this market. That's a good idea for them.

21. St. Louis (3 inc. hockey)

We're in middle range here. St. Louis seems like a classic sports town, but it's not that huge. They support their teams and spend well though.

22. Portland (1)

One of the nicest cities is also one of the largest with only one team - and unlike Orlando or Sacramento, there isn't another major market nearby to squelch off of. Portland is a mid-sized city but seems to be forgotten in the Northwest behind Seattle. They should have more.

23. Pittsburgh (3 inc. hockey)

Western Pennsylvania's big city is not as big as you might think. I had to spend a half hour convincing my annoying neighbor, a diehard Pitt fan, that it was not nearly as big as Philly. When the Pirates and Penguins claimed hardship, they weren't kidding, although the Pirates could do better. They're not the smallest, exactly....

24. Indianapolis (2)

Indiana has been mocked, and isn't huge, but is not a terrible market. This is a decent spot for them, and they only have 2 teams.

25. Charlotte (2)

26. Raleigh-Durham (1)

Maybe the biggest surprise for me was how the Carolinas had not just one, but several decent sized markets on this list. These two are individually bigger than some well-known cities, and put together, they'd be formidable. That's why North Carolina has 3 teams, in everything but baseball. Yet the Carolinas don't seem that big individually as states.... weird... (and look at numbers 36 and 46....)

27. Baltimore (2)

Separated from Washington, Baltimore is a medium market. 2 teams sounds right. Maybe they shouldn't have expected so much from Peter Angelos.

28. San Diego (2)

My favorite city to visit is not all that big and not all that caring. It's too bad, because this is one of the finest places to be, and to watch games. It might be the best baseball experience in the country. Apathy may be due to beaches nearby and transplants, and the population isn't as grandiose as LA (and other cities with transplants) to overcome it. Sad, but I don't think these teams are going to move, because their owners would probably lose a few bucks just to stay there. It's hard to leave.

29. Nashville (2)

I don't know why they have hockey, and I wouldn't take them over Houston, but I would say they are big enough to warrant a football team, given their college history and pro support. I think most teams factor in the other cities in Tennessee when deciding to come here, although they need to realize that Nashville and Memphis don't really like each other and have very different populations.

30. Hartford

Well, well, well. Connecticut has something besides highways connecting New York to New England. Hartford-New Haven is, in fact, the biggest market not to have a pro sports team. New York gets 3 hockey teams and they have none? That's messed up. Bring back the Whalers! LONG LIVE THE MIGHTY WHALE!

31. Salt Lake City (1)

They've grown a lot, which makes sense because half their population is obsessed with having as many pasty babies as possible. SLC used to be a small market the NBA capitalized on, but at this spot, they're not that terribly small. Would anyone else dare to come here? They're bigger than some other name cities.

32. Kansas City (2)

Like their brother on the other side of Missouri, this is a classic sports town that is not really that huge.. and they're even smaller than St. Louis. They've been trying to get an NBA team, but this would be a small market to support 3 teams, especially when the Royals are barely hanging on.

33. Cincinnati (2)

34. Columbus (1)

Yikes. All the jokes about how Cincinnati makes Cleveland look good, and yet the numbers show they aren't nearly as big as their Ohio rival and are, amazingly, very close to being passed as number 2 in the state. That hurts. To be fair, even though the numbers are similar, I think still think of Columbus as a big college town, rather than a pro sports city, and I know Cincy still gets a lot of support from nearby Kentucky. They support 2 teams, but they're lucky they have them. Tradition helps. I do appreciate the NHL's logic in going for Columbus over Cincy and Cleveland. They couldn't do hockey. Then again, that team could disappear and I don't think anyone would notice.

35. Milwaukee (2)

The birthplace of many beers is on the smaller side, but seems to draw people. Don't forget that they essentially have the Packers as well. They're the main NFL team in this city. This is not a huge market, right on the cusp of being really small, but it's another classic Midwestern city with good fans.

36. Greenville, South Carolina- Asheville, North Carolina

I had to look this one up on the map. This is an area of Western North Carolina and Northwestern South Carolina that groups 4 cities together - Greenville, Asheville, Spartanburg, and Anderson. I have no knowledge on any of them. But, in this metro area, there are more people put together than in same famous cities. I wasn't aware South Carolina had metro areas, but add them to the Carolina total.

37. San Antonio (1)

Here's where the markets really get small and questionable. San Antonio has been a nice home for the NBA, and they might have a shot at a football team someday, but given that they have to fight with Houston and Dallas, it's tough.

38. West Palm Beach, Florida

Isn't this part of Miami metro? I guess not for this study. Well, that's probably where they would go. I'd count them for Miami for fans.

39. Harrisburg-Central PA

DISTRICT 3 REPRESENT!

When I was graduating high school, my one English teacher told me that I should look into interning at Lancaster's NBC station, which is not that far from my parents' house. I replied that I was going to school in Philly so that I would never have to work in this godforesaken town again, and that I'd rather see what happens in a real city. She told me that Lancaster was actually a very good market to start out in, and that most newly hired communication graduates don't even come close to starting out in a market this size. Well, she was right. It didn't matter because I never wanted to work in live broadcast TV, but her point was made - Lancaster-Harrisburg-York-Lebanon, put together, has more people than a lot of cities.

I guess this makes sense, given how much my home area has grown. There are so many burbs popping up between Chambersburg and Reading, and they're appearing without a lot of major cities or towns to be structured around. Harrisburg isn't that big, but the population in Dauphin and Cumberland counties keeps going up. I did not come from the sticks, as many people have incorrectly noted. I came from middle and upper class burbs in an area that has been booming for nearly 30 years. Now it's bigger than some famous places.

(Hey David Stern, we have more people than Oklahoma City! Maybe you should give us a team with Kevin Durant, you fucking prick.)

40. Birmingham, Alabama

41. Grand Rapids - Kalamazoo, Michigan

...then again, maybe we shouldn't be so proud of ourselves.

42. Las Vegas

Some have speculated that Vegas will get a pro team soon. They're not big, although they are bigger than some pro cities. I want to see it just for the hilarious scandal potential. It's a bad mix waiting to happen.

43. Hampton Rhodes, Virginia

I expected this area, which includes Norfolk, Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Newport News, Virginia Beach, and Hampton, to be a little higher. My brother lives in Virginia Beach and it seems like a fast-growing area. They're bigger than they used to be, but I don't think they will get a pro team because they have a lot of transplants (especially for the Naval Base) and most locals root for the D.C. teams anyway. But it's a nice place for minor leagues.

44. Albuquerque - Santa Fe

They still have the Isotopes!

(No, really, they do.)

45. Oklahoma City (1)

And here we are, David Stern! This city has rabidly supported the NBA, but it's just not that big, and it's gotten a really promising team with a superstar in place. It's not a fair deal. The NBA has done well in small markets with no other pro team in town, but this is really low on the list.

46. Greensboro - Winston-Salem, North Carolina

Okay! North Carolina! I get it!

47. Jacksonville (1)

Maybe the most puzzling expansion choice ever? Seriously, I know Florida loves football, but they don't support other sports, and they already had 2 teams. People were just starting to accept the Bucs when the NFL awarded an expansion team to Jax, which is way below the other Florida cities. Orlando maybe, but here? They've had decent fan support, but this is now universally seen as a college town with no business having any pro teams. It was a major problem during their hosting duties for the Super Bowl; they just weren't big enough to hold everyone.

What's even more astonishing is that they were chosen over Baltimore and St. Louis, two much bigger cities with plenty of tradition. Those snubs allowed owners from other teams to later jettison their teams to fill in those heartbroken towns. If the NFL had just given the second spot to St. Louis in 1993, the Rams would still be in LA, the divisions would make a lot more sense, and the league wouldn't have to come up with an excuse for why they didn't have a team in the second biggest market. I'd be more angry but it seems like this team is gone soon anyway, so things will eventually even themselves out. They'll probably switch divisions with the Rams, or others will be moved, and it will be ok. But they could have avoided all of this.

Sorry Jacksonville, you're just in a weird place.

48. Austin

Too bad the only cool city in Texas is too small to have any teams.

49. Louisville

I think the NBA considered going here.... I wouldn't do it. But then, they've been in smaller places. Such as...

50. Memphis (1)

Tennessee has been a hot place for teams, but Memphis is significantly smaller than Nashville. Even if they do get people from other parts of the state, and from surrounding states like Arkansas and Mississippi, they're awfully small. Memphis is a great college basketball town with local talent, but it's been hard for the NBA. They actually had a decent team a few years ago before they gave up Pau Gasol just to save cash. Now they have a nice foundation again, but who knows how long they will keep it together. This is a really questionable spot.

51. Buffalo (2)

This seems like a really low place for anyone to have a team, let alone two teams. But I give hockey a pass because this is the kind of place that should have hockey. And I give the Bills a pass because they're trying to draw fans from Toronto, which doesn't show up on any list because it's Canada but has potentially more fans than anyone outside the top 5. They're tried to play a few games in Toronto to get fans there to watch and make the trek across the border. I don't know if they've really benefited from that, but even if they can get a small percentage of Canadians to watch, that would be a big gain.

Upstate New Yorkers are worried that this team will leave or move to Toronto for good, but I don't think the NFL wants to deal with actually being in Canada. They just want Canada's English-speaking, American-football-accepting fans to watch and buy stuff. It may work. If so, they'll probably stay where they are and try to score deals with Toronto TV stations.

[By the way, Toronto doesn't show up on this list but has 3 pro teams, and they spend money reasonably well, so technically they should be considered a very good market.]

[[And now that the Grizzlies are gone from Vancouver, and the Montreal Expos are no more, Toronto is the only Canadian city to have teams from leagues besides hockey.]]

52. New Orleans (2)

They've obviously dropped a lot in the past few years. But even before Katrina, they were not that big. I think they were around # 43 in the early part of the decade. Nawlins is one of the most unique and important cities in America, but it has never been that huge. Now, as the city struggles to rebuild, having 2 major teams seems like a lot of work. They are the smallest pro city on this list, and certainly the smallest to have 2 non-hockey teams BY FAR.

I hate to say no to New Orleans. They have good fans who have been through a lot. The Saints have a lot of history, even if much of it is bad, and a strong connection to the area. They should stay, and I think they will now. The Hornets have barely been there, and never should have left Charlotte in the first place, but their owner is a horrible dick and he decided to come here. I don't know if they will stay. If Chris Paul leaves, they might have to move on as well.

53. Providence

Boston fans with their own fun college teams.

54. Scranton

55. Fresno

I'm gonna wrap this up now. If you can't beat Fresno or Scranton, I don't think you should have a pro team in anything. The only pro city left on this list is Green Bay at # 70, but as I said, I think they should count with Milwaukee. The Packers have a monopoly on the whole state of Wisconsin, right? I have to think that at least 90 % of the locals in Milwaukee and Madison are wearing green.

-----

So what does this tell us? We can see certain trends amongst the different leagues. The NBA takes more chances with small markets, although the NFL supports a few as well. Baseball tries to go for major cities. The NHL takes the major American markets, but doesn't appear everywhere because they have to put a couple teams in Canada (and there really should be more).

But, focusing on the major three leagues, allow me to make a point about the schedules: the NFL plays 16 games a year; the NBA, 82; and baseball goes for 162. Because football is usually played on the weekends, it allows itself bigger crowds from a larger area. People can use their weekend to travel to the game, and so it might not matter as much if they are in a big city. Green Bay gets fans from not just all over Wisconsin, but all over the mid west. It's the same reason why college football can exist in places like Nebraska and Iowa and Oklahoma and Alabama: less people have work on the weekends and thus have time to travel to games. Baseball, however, has to attract fans every night. They like being in major population centers where they can bring in daily workers and occasional families making a special trip. The NBA also has to do this, having many weeknight games. It's why the Eagles can have fans from all over the Eastern seaboard but the Sixers get people who mostly live in or close to the city.

Knowing this, it's interesting to note that the NBA and MLB have very different plans. Look at how many NBA teams are in a market where they are the only major sports team - Orlando, Sacramento, Portland, Utah, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Memphis. They were also the first league to put teams in Phoenix, Indiana, Seattle (about the same time as that failed Seattle Pilots attempt) and North Carolina. They have tried to find new markets and capitalize on middle and smaller markets that had nothing else. Meanwhile, baseball refuses to be the only game in town. All of their teams are in a market with another major sports team. Since 1970, (when the NFL and AFL merged to make football super powerful and the NBA started adding a bunch of teams), the MLB has never placed a team in a city that didn't have any other major teams. They are the only league that doesn't have a team ranked lower than 40 (Milwaukee is the smallest at 35). Yet the teams low on their list often complain about being overlooked, while in the NBA, a lot of those smaller markets have done well. The salary cap helps, but it's worth noting.

It looks like most of these leagues are done trying expansion for a while. The NBA and MLB would probably drop a few teams before adding any soon, but they most likely won't. The NFL is making the most cash, but 32 teams works out so well for them mathematically that it would be hard for them to add 1 or 2 more. This means that we're probably stuck with the same number of franchises for a while, and the only way to get different markets will be moves. Which will happen next? The Jaguars to LA? The Vikings?? (I hope not). Sacto may become Vegas or Kansas City (which they ironically once were). Whatever happens, I hope this list gives you an idea on where we stand in regards to media markets and team locations.

whoops! a correction

2010-11-09T15:06:00.000-08:00

Well, I realized that my NBA preview is flawed in a small way. I had Miami, Orlando, and Atlanta as the top 3 seeds in the East. That is technically impossible. They all play in the same division, so that means that one of them would be a 5 seed. The NBA gives the top 4 seeds in each conference to the division winners plus the best wild card, in order of record. Then, everyone else starts at 5. They did this after they realized how bad it would be if the best 2 teams in the conference would be in the same division (and it happened a lot with San Antonio and Dallas in those first few years after they switched to 6 divisions).

I feel especially stupid because I was just explaining to someone how, in 2007, the top three teams in the East were all in the same division (Pistons, Cavs, Bulls) and the way it worked out may have helped the Cavs get to the finals. The Bulls were just behind the Cavs for the number 2 spot but had to settle for the 5th seed.

So, if Miami, Orlando, and Atlanta finish with the three best records in the East, the worst of them still gets the 5th seed. I thought about this after they all got off to good starts. BUT, the Celtics are off to a good start as well, so they might be in there. I expected Boston and Chicago to win their divisions easily, so they would get the 3 and 4 seeds. This setup might help the Celtics get a 3 seed even more easily, and propel them to the conference finals.

Leo's 2011 NBA Preview: Recipe for Hate

2010-10-26T14:38:00.000-07:00

Hate.

That's the word I keep thinking about in watching the league during this off season. I'm not just talking about LeBron's I Am The Most Important Person in The World special, the Heat hate, the continued erosion of the Sixers, or the ongoing Melo-drama. I mean, all of these are certainly part of it, but there's so much about the league EVERYWHERE that is bothering me. I'm disappointed in almost every team. This is an angry time of my basketball life. I'm as intrigued as ever to see what happens, but I'm pissed.

Yes, every team has a reason to be hated. Every team has done something to make me despise their existence. Every team has at least one thing I can complain about. Some teams made good moves, but there's no way to satisfy my internal flame. So I present a quick preview on every team, measured on my personal hate-o-meter, and also some less important things, like how many wins they'll have.

WEST

Los Angeles Lakers

HATE LEVEL: 10 of 10

I HATE: It sucks living in LA when the Lakers are good. Granted, there aren't many times when they are bad, but when they actually win titles, the city gets to an extra level of annoying. People put flags all over their car, slowing down an already-suffocating road system; drunken assholes of all races and professions march down the street like they were the ones playing in the game; and people who really don't care or know anything about sports awkwardly try to strike up conversations or talk about the team in interviews and IT ALL SUCKS. None of these people realize that the only way the Lakers became relevant again is because Chris Wallace gave up way too early on a franchise big man and settled for crap, more crap, and payroll relief. No, I still haven't gotten over that one.

As for the team itself, I wish there was something bad I could say or some hope of them slipping, but it just ain't gonna happen. They made two very smart moves in bringing in Steve Blake to back up Derek Fisher and Matt Barnes to serve as Ron Artest insurance. Both of these guys fit, and at positions they need depth. And just when they didn't deserve it, they got Shannon Brown back at a decent price. Teams that win titles should not be able to pick up people so easily. I wish there was a team out West who could challenge them, but there isn't. Dallas isn't quite good enough, OKC is another year away (and doesn't have the bigs), San Antonio is old, Denver is about to implode, Utah doesn't have the wings, Phoenix lost Amare, and Houston still has injury problems. They will win this conference easily, barring any major catastrophes. They already proved they were above the Magic two years ago, and Orlando hasn't really gotten better. The only teams in the league that can really take them are the Celtics or Heat, two teams I don't much like either. Hate. I hate.

[One reason I didn't extend the hate: Mychal Thompson. He's been fun. He's developed an almost Uecker-like level of self-parody for his career, which wasn't really that bad, but he has a good time. He always sounds like he's got his shoes off and is lying back with a pina colada. I can listen to him. I even made him my avatar/mascot for my fantasy team. Pride of the Bahamas!]

PROJECTED WINS: 60

Dallas Mavericks

HATE LEVEL: 5

I HATE: I should hate this team, considering they play in Dallas. But I like Cuban, I have respect for Nowitzki and Kidd, and they're a nice foil for the Lakers and Spurs' combined dominance of the West this decade. They've been on the cusp of being a serious contender the past few years, ever since they got knocked out by Golden State, but this might be their best shot at getting back to the finals. I don't think they can beat the Lakers, but they probably can make it to the conference finals. If anything, I hate them for not putting it together quite enough to beat LA.

The Mavs have changed their philosophy a couple of times this decade, but I think they have a good roster right now. They started out by trying to acquire as many good pieces as possible, regardless of how they played together. This led to weird teams where solid guys like Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison didn't have a spot. Then they tried to get a balanced team of supporting players around Dirk. This got them to the finals and the best record the next year, but they eventually gave it up. Last year, it seemed like they wanted to put out a small lineup again, but they tweaked it at the deadline. Now they have two decent centers (if Tyson Chandler is healthy, but he doesn't have to be 100% to help), a nice collection of shooters, defenders, a real point guard in Kidd, and some interesting young guys. The only guy who might not fit in is Caron Butler. He's not a guard, and he clashes with the offense sometimes. But he has an expiring deal and some value, so he'll probably be traded at some point. I'm sure Cuban will make more deals, but I don't know if it will be enough. With all the turmoil in the rest of the conference, I give them the runner-up spot.

PROJECTED WINS: 56

Not Seattle Sonics

HATE LEVEL: 8

I HATE: Ok, most of that hate is because this exciting team is not in Seattle anymore. One of the few great basketball hotbeds got a peek at one of the league's hottest new stars and then watched him go away. Not fair. Considering the last few markets to get NBA teams (Toronto, Vancouver-Memphis, New Orleans, Charlotte's retread, OKC), doesn't Oklahoma City get the best situation out of all of them? How does that happen? The good people of Seattle deserve much better, and while I think OKC has proved itself as a decent small market, they haven't had any ugly losing periods beyond their honeymoon to sour them. All those other cities had to deal with some awful teams without any stars. You guys got one Kevin Durant gift-wrapped to you. I hate. I HATE.

Actually, I do have some actual concerns about this team. I'm not sure what the ceiling is on some of their young guys. I have to compare them to Portland, their natural rival and the team before them that was getting all the buzz as being the brightest up-and-coming bunch. After last year, people had soured on Portland a little, realizing that they don't have any real stars besides Roy. I wonder if maybe this is the season where OKC's luster rubs off a little and people realize they don't have anything special besides Durant. You need at least two all stars to be a contender, and I don't know if Jeff Green or Russell Westbrook will ever be there. They are good, and Westbrook did make splashes on the national team, but I want to see more of them before I decide. This team also has a lot of question marks down low. At least Portland has Oden and Camby to protect them. This team has a jump shooter who doesn't go down low (Kristic) undersized forward types (Collison, White, Aldrich) and wild cards with big potential but no clue (Mullens, Ibaka). If no one steps up, they have a real size problem, especially since Durant and Green are natural small forwards (though big ones). Even though they put a scare into the Lakers, they got pummeled inside and will not be a real contender until they get some bigs. Everyone wants to see them in the conference finals and challenge the Lakers, but I put them a shade below until I see more. They are very good, I just want to make sure.

Projected wins: 54

Utah Jazz

Hate level: 5

I HATE: I love the beautiful state of Utah and its fantastic drivers! What could you hate? This team always seems to be in the middle of the playoffs, 4 or 5 seed, right around 50 wins. I thought Boozer leaving might drop them a tad, but they turned around and pulled off a shocking heist of Al Jefferson. Even though they had been trying to save money, they couldn't pass up a deal that good.

Maybe the most hatable thing about this team is that they make good moves, but always take one step back when they take one forward. It's got to be frustrating to their fans. Last year, they gave up quality young guards Ronnie Brewer and Eric Maynor for nothing just to get some cap relief. Their backcourt depth remains unsettled, although late pickups of Raja Bell and Earl Watson help. They drafted Next White Hope Gordon Hayward, but lost Previous White Hope Kyle Korver. They can't settle on a starting off guard, yet they always have big guys.

I think they're waiting for Kirilenko's contract to be over so they can make some decisions, but until then, they seem to be stuck. They have the big guys to throw at the Lakers, but not the wings. They'll be at the same place they have been.

Projected wins: 51

Portland Trail Blazers

Hate level: 6

I HATE: Ohh, the golden boys have lost their shine! For a few years, everyone talked about them as The Next Big Thing. They were supposed to take down the Lakers and build a new dynasty. Then, last year, you could hear the stampede leaving town and heading for Oklahoma. Is anyone left on the Blazer bandwagon?

This team isn't that bad; in fact, they are a quality bet to get to 50 wins. But no one is thinking of them as a contender anymore. They never found the third scorer to help Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. They haven't gotten much out of once-hyped Euros Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez. Andre Miller is a good point guard but a bad fit here. Greg Oden showed some poise but his injury history makes you think that anything can happen. At least they picked up Marcus Camby for depth.

I think they're going to hover around 50 wins and a middle playoff seed until they figure the roster out. With all those wings, they still signed Wes Matthews to a big deal, which was very confusing. They probably will trade Rudy at some point (don't they have to now?) and they will see if either of their rookies are worth it. This is not a bad team, but the magic, and Kevin Pritchard, are gone, and suddenly their future is not so bright. Poor Portland. A nice city deserves better. They had so much excitement and now they have so many questions. Well, at least you're not Seattle.

Projected wins: 50

San Antonio Spurs

Hate level: 4

I HATE: No reason to hate the Spurs anymore, because they are on the way down. They've been sinking for the past few years, and have the early playoff exits to show for it. Last year they got a small measure of revenge on Dallas from the year before, but were swept by their once inferior rival Suns. I don't think there's much left here. The only real reason to watch is to see if Tiago Splitter, talked about for years, is worth the hype. He could rejuvenate them a little. This roster is fine, with the big three still (mostly) holding down the fort and Richard Jefferson, though kind of a waste, providing some energy on the wings. I will look to see if they work any youngsters into the rotation, including first round pick James Anderson, Splitter, and onetime La Salle recruit Gary Neal. With Tony Parker approaching free agency and getting plenty of interest, this is the last hurrah for the Spurs as we've known them for the past few years. They could make a minor surprise run, but there's no real reason to project it with the way they've looked.

Projected wins: 48

New Orleans Hornets

Hate level: 6

I HATE: George Shinn. He's always been a bastard. He spends money and then criticizes it. He ruined a perfectly good situation in Charlotte, backed LJ over Zo (bad idea) and then traded him anyway, denied Michael Jordan a much better comeback story, and alienated one of the most loyal and zealous fan bases within a few years of creating the team. Since he came to New Orleans, he's been alternating in handing out dumb contracts and then dumping salary. He doesn't deserve to have a team. He doesn't deserve to have Chris Paul. When rumors started that CP wanted out, I figured that CP would be gone. After all, what has Shinn done whenever his star players have complained? Dumped them. For nothing.

I was figuring out trade machine deals for Paul to the Knicks when a funny thing happened: Shinn said he was selling (WHY DID IT TAKE YOU THIS FUCKING LONG??) the team, and the Hornets pulled off a sly trade to get Trevor Ariza and Marco Bellinelli while dumping James Posey off the books. They also gave up Darren Collison, who would've been a much cheaper replacement for CP if he left. They brought in a new coach and GM and promised CP that everything would be better. He calmed down.

So now what? The Hornets stand to have some decent wings surrounding Paul. He's never had an athletic finisher like Ariza, and Marcus Thornton got some nice looks as the off guard last year. He still has David West. Emeka Okafor was a disappointment, but is not a terrible player. They picked up Jerryd Bayless for depth and will probably have Jannero Pargo back. I kind of like this team, even if I don't know about frontcourt depth. They still have Peja off the bench, and it's nice that they don't have to depend on him to play a lot. Maybe he will be good in limited time. I just have a feeling that with CP back for a full year and a decent lineup, they can sneak into the playoffs. It's possible. Now just get Shinn out of there.

Projected wins: 46

Houston Rockets

Hate Level: 5

I HATE: I hate fate for cursing them. This is the team - not Dallas, not Denver, not anyone else - that should have been challenging the Lakers the past few years. Daryl Morey inherited a team with two star players and nothing else, and spent the past few years doing a wonderful job surrounding them with talent. He built up a team with no assets and low draft picks to get the necessary supporting players to those stars. But, just when they had a strong supporting cast, the two stars fell off the face of the Earth with injuries and weird problems. If the Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady of 2005-07 had the supporting cast of 2009-10, they might have mounted a real threat to the Lakers. But no. It just didn't work out. Now Houston has a collection of supporting players without the star base.

Last year, the Rockets impressed everyone by playing hard and scrapping without Yao or another big name. They had a lot of unknown parts that gelled and overachieved. They managed to later turn some of their parts into a decent wing, Kevin Martin. If they could just have Yao healthy for one year, I would list them as the second best team in the conference. But they already announced that they would be bringing him back slowly and limiting minutes. Once again, they will have to scrap and work hard, and I think that will get them back to where they just were. I like the back court of Martin and Aaron Brooks a lot. I'm surprised they gave up on Ariza so quickly, but they clearly want shooters around their big guys and Courtney Lee is a nice wing to have. They have too many big guys to use, so I think there will be some more moves. If they can get another impact player, maybe that will make up for it. But they are going to have to hope that Yao is okay, and that's a risk.

Projected wins: 45

Phoenix Suns

Hate Level: 8

I HATE: Robert Sarver is another owner that's hard to figure out. He infamously dumped draft picks and refused to make a few small deals that would have put the Suns over the top during their glory Nash-Marion years, yet had no problem giving cash to questionable guys like Boris Diaw, Marcus Banks, and Shaq (who was older and didn't fit the system). This summer, he really made a weird play, letting Amare go and then spending on Hedo Turkoglu, Hakim Warrick, and Channing Frye. WHAT?? Amare may or may not be worth the cash, but for the amount they spent on those guys..... that's just weird. He dumped Steve Kerr, who was trying hard to revitalize the team, and now I have no idea where they go.

As much as he had problems on D and rebounding, Amare was valuable to this team for his inside scoring. They replaced him with a bunch of forwards who don't go down low, and aren't even much better on defense. Turkoglu is not really a four, and Hakim Warrick is a decent slasher who doesn't really have a spot either. Warrick was an especially weird signing because they already had Earl Clark, a similar player, and Jared Dudley, a combo forward who does a lot of the small things. They needed an inside guy if anything, and didn't get it. Robin Lopez is not a scorer. Turkoglu was good, then looked lost in Toronto, and even though he might look better playing next to Nash, I think he was mostly just in a good situation in Orlando that utilized him perfectly. I don't have much hope for him. Or this team.

Steve Nash deserves better. They have enough scoring to be a threat for the playoffs, but the pieces do not fit together. I think it's back to the lottery, although they will be close and could slip in.

Projected wins: 44

Memphis Grizzlies

Hate level: 4

I HATE: I really wanted to hate this team last year, but they surprised everyone by flirting with the playoffs and getting to the .500 mark. Their starting lineup was solid; Zach Randolph finally put it together enough to be an all-star, and they made some strides. They had no bench at all, but they've made a few moves to help that. They drafted wing Xavier Henry and signed defensive specialist Tony Allen. Haseem Thabeet looks like a bust, but with Marc Gasol looking fine, they may not need him to be more than a role player. They just need to build up the roster a little. One question: do they like Mike Conley? He's the one starter that hasn't been doing great. He hasn't been terrible, but he's the one questionable part. They haven't brought in any backups for him, so they must see something. Otherwise, I like this team and I think they just need a little more time.

Projected wins: 40

Denver Nuggets

Hate level: 8

I HATE: They're almost certainly going to lose Carmelo. The only issue is when. That will kill them for now. It's not all their fault for him wanting to leave. But they should be hated a little for how it all happened. They overspent on Nene and Kenyon Martin, which killed their chances of signing other people, especially when they already had Marcus Camby. Then they tried to dump everyone they could. It worked the past few years, as those guys finally got healthy and made the team into a contender. But trades like giving away Camby for nothing probably made Melo question where this team was going. They got Iverson as a weird fit, then smartly dumped him for Billups. They got a nice pickup of Ty Lawson. But they didn't get another big guy to help when Camby left, and that cost them.

In reality, the Nuggets had everything going for them when they made the conference finals two years ago. That was their peak and Melo had to see that. Even though they will have space this summer after Martin's horrendous deal finally runs out, he is gone. They can still salvage themselves with the right deal and a few draft picks, but they have to see that the time is over. It's hard to project wins because they could make a deal next week, or it could wait until February. Either way, I think there's enough dysfunction to keep them out of the playoffs.

Projected wins: 38 (pending)

Los Angeles Clippers

Hate level: 7

I HATE: I hate that the team I could be following closely is almost as depressing as my hometown team. They get so close, but they could be doing so much better. They could be a real rival to the Lakers. They could get out of the Staples Center, go to Anaheim, and grow their own fan base. They could be a real NBA team with an identity and not just living off the Lakers' sloppy seconds and discount tickets. But no, Donald Sterling, maybe the most hateable (and that's saying something) of all the hateable owners, just doesn't care. So they lose the chance to seriously pursue LeBron or Carmelo or someone great that could make them into a contender.

The irony is that they used to draft horrible players, but now have figured out how to do better... they just lose them one way or another. Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, and Chris Kaman are good. They have built a nice team. They need a small forward, but they did draft Al-Faroq Aminu and he might help later. They need more now, but they have a nice base. They have the talent to make the playoffs, but will they? They're the Clippers.

Projected wins: 36

Golden State Warriors

Hate level: 5

I HATE: That the Warriors couldn't get a new owner until now. They've had fascinating teams since that takedown of the Mavs, but sucked. Now, they dumped a lot of guys and are trying over with three key players: Stephon Curry, David Lee, and Monta Ellis. They provide a lot of offense and no D. This is a nice fantasy team, and fun to watch, but they will continue to lose games until they rebuild things. After having about 8 shooting guards/wings on the roster last year, they are surprisingly weak on the wings. Dorrell Wright, who didn't do much in Miami despite some chances, is the new small forward. Reggie Williams, who came on strong last year, is probably going to be the real guy there.

I like what they're doing, and they have a direction, but they need to start building up the roster with more guys.

Projected wins: 32

Sacramento Kings

Hate level: 7

I HATE: I didn't hate much until I remembered that this team made me look dumb... and is probably moving. They really impressed me last year, looking like a team with a bright future. I berated them for not taking Ricky Rubio in the draft. Whoops! Tyreke Evans was awesome and looked like a real franchise player. I didn't like them having to give up Kevin Martin to fit him in, but they'll be able to find a shooter to put next to him. With the drafting of DeMarcus Cousins, and the steal of Omri Casspi, they have a solid foundation. They also have depth on the front line with Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Sam Dalembert, Donte Greene, and maybe steal Hassan Whiteside. They need some guard depth, but that's about it. They will struggle now, but they are building.

Last year, I was ready to declare them the worst and least-talented team in the league. Now, they have a promising base. And right when that happens, they're gonna move. Horrible. There is nothing but hate in this league.

Projected wins: 28

Minnesota Timberwolves

Hate level: 30

I HATE: Everything about this sorry joke of a franchise. Was it really not that long ago that they were the at the top of the conference? Well, six years. That's a lot in NBA terms. Since they did that, they've fallen into a worse abyss than they had pre-KG. They have the worst roster on paper, the least amount of talent, the biggest scoring problems, and no franchise player to speak of other than Kevin Love, and I don't know if he fits that bill. Instead of drafting a quality big man or trading up to get Evan Turner, they settled for Wesley Johnson, a serviceable wing but a guy who should never be a key component on a team. They dumped Al Jefferson, the only guy who was even close to being an all-star, for almost nothing. They claimed that he couldn't play together with Love. I'm not sure about that, but I feel even more dubious about Michael Beasley fitting in with Love. That is a bad mix. They have some guard depth now, but no one is really that good. They have a lot of mediocre guys who should be 8th or 9th men in key positions. I don't even want to touch the center spot, where infamous stiffs Darko (he only needs one name) and Kostas Koufos will try to show... anything? Something!

David Kahn has quickly become a running joke, and it's for a reason. They have no direction. The Jefferson trade not only cost them their best player, but it also basically ruined the remains of the KG deal. With Ryan Gomes gone, the Wolves have nothing left to show for trading away the best player in franchise history three years after it happened. Terrible. I haven't even gotten to the Ricky Rubio fiasco yet. They mishandled that horribly, as drafting Jonny Flynn was a big problem. At least Stephon Curry would be better and could play some off guard to entice Rubio. Now, he has no reason to come here and I don't see why he would. Flynn is solid but they blew two top picks with that selection. Now they need to get lucky in the draft.

I think they're going to be historically bad. The Nets won 12 games last year with better players, and they were in an easier conference. The Wolves managed only 15 wins with Jefferson and Gomes, two guys who at least provided some scoring. Unless Beasley makes a huge leap, I think they should be even worse.

Projected wins: 10. Not kidding.

EAST

Miami Heat

Hate level: 50

I HATE: Yeah, I'm on the Heat Haters bandwagon. I still can't wrap my head around this. I am curious to see how they will do, but I know they are going to kill people. I already wrote about this in my last column after the big decision was announced. They are going to be good and they are going to win. Everyone hoping for them to fall apart is going to be disappointed. They have too much, and they have some role players now to balance it out. They won't win the title without a real center, but they can easily get the best record in the East and I like them better than almost every team. Orlando and Boston will be tough in certain spots, but if LeBron almost took them down by himself, what's going to happen when he goes at them with two other stars? It's not going to be pretty. I'm tired of talking about them. I'm sure we'll hear a million things more.

Projected wins: 62

Orlando Magic

Hate level: 4

I HATE: Their new arena is furnished by a guy who runs a giant pyramid scheme. So that's cool. This team is in a weird spot. Just as they were happy to realize they had an advantage over Cleveland, they got a reminder that it wouldn't be the same against Boston with a healthy KG. Then, LeBron pulled the rug out on everyone. People are trying to back them as the team that can take down the Heat, but really, they're the third best team in the East (even if the records won't say so).

I'm not saying their finals appearance was a fluke, as they played great that year and shot unbelievably well, but they had to know they got a little luck with no KG and them being a matchup nightmare for Cleveland. To their credit, they did not stand still after that great run. They tried to make themselves better and deeper. Most teams wouldn't have been so bold. But now, they have an aging Vince Carter and a lineup that doesn't have all the quirks it did.

I know, I know, they have Dwight Howard and he can kill the Heat. But then, who does Rashard Lewis guard? Who do they have besides Mickael Pietrus to stop LeBron and Wade? I don't buy it. And the Celtics proved who was the best in their matchup.

I can see them getting 60 wins, I can see them having the best record in the conference and maybe the league, but unless Boston and Miami have serious problems, I don't think this is a finals team.

Projected wins: 60

Atlanta Hawks

Hate level: 6

I HATE: This franchise has made a big circle. In the late 90's, they put together a bunch of respectable teams that always made the playoffs and usually even advanced one round. They were solid and always seemed like one piece away from a contender. Yet they didn't attract fans and were seen as boring. So, to shake things up, they traded for (sentimental blogger favorite) Isiah Rider, which failed horribly, then Shareef Abdur-Rahim, which failed, but not that horribly, just kind of almost being there. Then they tanked one year too late to get the real prize (local stud Dwight Howard) but amazingly passed up the chance to get Chris Paul when they really needed a point guard. They suffered and suffered until finally they built a decent smallball team that won 50 games and advanced to the second round the past two years.

So….

Now they're in that holding pattern again. Most people have them in the same spot or sliding just a bit. No one thinks of them as a contender, just another team that will make the playoffs and scare no one. I'm still shocked that Joe Johnson came back here and even more shocked that they ponied up for him. They don't mind the notion that they're ok where they are. Don't they remember how it turned out last time?

I'm putting them third because I think they might just make a little improvement this year. I like Jordan Crawford as a rookie, and they brought in some bigs to help up front. But their base as it is not going to get any farther, so unless they make big changes, they will do the same. They can't compete with the Heat, Magic, or Celtics in the playoffs.

I'm just waiting for them to make that trade for Michael Beasley or Arenas in a few years.

Projected wins: 54

Boston Celtics: 5

I HATE: That they couldn't pull it off, and that I even wanted them to in the first place. This franchise has 17 titles. I feel no sympathy for them. It was nice in a way for the big three to get their title two years ago. They've all been professionals and I don't hate them. I just wish it happened in a city where they didn't already have 30 Hall of Famers. But they're here, and now they're one of the teams counted on to challenge the new Heat power. I don't know.

I have a feeling that they are going to coast a little in the regular season again. They are old, they are saving themselves, and they know it.

There are some questions here. I wonder which big guy gets left out when Perkins comes back. Five is a lot. I also want to know how much each one has left. KG looked dead for most of last season and then pulled it together for the playoffs, only to fade a little at the end. I have doubts about both O'Neals, although Shaq still has some skills.

They got a huge break when Delonte West came limping back to them. He can shoot, defend, and play both guard spots. They really needed perimeter depth, and he's good.

They already proved they can take down the Magic with enough healthy people. They are the only team in the East that can stare down Miami…. But if they don't take the regular season seriously, they may face the Heat in the second round and not the conference finals. I don't know how that series goes then. They might have to slug it out vs. the Bulls or Bucks beforehand. I think the Heat have the advantage, but man, is that interesting.

It's so hard to say with this team. They looked dead all year and then managed to get within a few points of a title. I am going in between and saying they are a tough playoff team but don't make the finals.

Projected wins: 52

Chicago Bulls

Hate level: 4

I HATE: They finally got their scoring power forward and now they don't have enough guards. Frustrating. For years, they needed an inside scorer. Finally, they get to free agency, score nice with a not-quite-huge star, but get dumped on the other end. I thought they would get Joe Johnson, but no, and now they have another hole to fill.

Still, I do like this team, and I think they get to 50 wins. They brought in some depth, have some defense and shooters, and are going to play hard under Thibodeaux. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver will tag team as they did in Utah for defense and shooting, but until Chicago gets a real two guard, they will be in the middle of the playoff pack.

Projected wins: 50

Milwaukee Bucks

Hate level: 7

I HATE: This franchise for constantly beguiling me. Last year I berated them for dumping people and drafting a string of bad point guards when they could've just had Chris Paul. They spent the past decade signing people to awful, terrible contracts, and then letting good players go for nothing to save cash. They have, on the whole, the most up-and-down front office history this decade. I declared them the worst team in the East and the least talented team in the league. I put them number one on my list of teams I would vote to be contracted.

Then the season started, and you know how that went. They surprised everyone on the way to the playoffs, and became a popular young team. Andrew Bogut finally made some progress and Brandon Jennings proved he was a point guard they should finally stick with. They got earnest contributions from some cheap pick ups like Carlos Delfino and Luc Richard Mbahohyouknow and scrapped along as some of their high-paid problems sat on the bench. They were such a feel good team.

I was really impressed with how John Hammond rebuilt this team in one year…. until the summer came and he abandoned his philosophy to hand out more contracts. He signed Drew Gooden and John Salmons, two guys with a lot of stops. He traded for Corey Magette, a highly paid scorer who doesn't do much else and hasn't won much. It seemed like he forgot everything he did and went back to the old Bucks style of giving up too much they'd regret later.

So, I don't know what to think of this team, and I'm tired of trying to figure out where they will go. They've surprised before, only to fall back the next year. I think they will be fine this year just because the conference is terrible, and Bogut and Jennings are for real, but I don't know how the new guys will fit. I'll call it a wash from the progress they made last year.

Projected wins: 45

New York Knicks

Hate level: 5

I HATE: That I felt so bad for these guys that I was rooting for them this summer. I used to love taunting Knicks fans, as I know quite a few, but it started to get sad after the mistakes of the old started to ruin the next few years. Isiah's infamous miscues ruined them in the short and long term. They didn't have enough assets to attract players, regardless of cap space, and they realized their dreams of getting LeBron and others was not going to end up well. Amare and Ray Felton just don't have the same ring.

But there is hope. While losing out on some big names, they did get Stoudemire to provide scoring inside they haven't had since Ewing. Felton, though no Chris Paul, is a solid point and much better than anyone they've had in a while. Throw in the progress of Wilson Chandler and Danillo Gallinari and they have a decent roster. They should have enough to make the playoffs in the East. And they will probably have a shot at landing Carmelo and maybe some other guys. Finally hope in New York.

I still give them a hate rating because I know those Knick fans will become unbearable again once they get players. They were cocky at first about the guys Isiah was bringing in, even though we all knew it was a bad idea. Also, James Dolan, by all accounts, is a spoiled asshole and let all this destruction happen. Don't get too comfy yet, New Yorkers.

Projected wins: 42

Charlotte Bobcats

Hate level: 6

I HATE: This team finally broke through and made the playoffs, and yet they remain a disappointing franchise. Even though they broke through, their talent level is just not that impressive. They had to give up key guys because they didn't want to pay for them, and are now hoping they have just enough to get by. Instead of building a foundation for the future, they scrapped together an older team just so they could taste the postseason. Now they're back to being just okay.

It's been a weird second stage for Charlotte in the NBA. The Hornets always had stars, even if George Shinn got rid of them. The Bobcats have never had a real superstar and have been filled with guys who were good but not amazing. Ray Felton was nice but was so uninteresting that they drafted D.J. Augustin high. Gerald Wallace finally became the first all-star last year, but he's not really a franchise player. They get by with these guys who had a few good years, like Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson, but are nothing special. They have a few overpaid centers who have done nothing of recent. Where do they go from here?

The only thing working in their favor is that they can still make the playoffs because all the other teams in the bottom half of the East just aren't there. I do think Tyrus Thomas could be a find, and I liked Augustin a lot coming out of college. They might step up (and they'll need to for my money). I just feel like the city is bored with this team.

Projected wins: 37

Indiana Pacers

Hate level: 6

I HATE: I was ready to kill these guys for putting together a horrible roster and the most boring team in the league. Larry Bird has had a rough time as GM and they've been stuck in mediocrity hell for a while. Then they pulled off a sly trade to get Darren Collison without giving up anyone they really needed long term. That kept them from the absolute basement. Now, with some contracts coming off the books, they might just have some hope, but it will take a lot more work.

I feel awful for the Indiana fans, who always support basketball at every level. This is one of the states that really cares and they shouldn't have to watch them put out a team that wins 35 games every year. I know Bird was crippled by the fallout of the Artest melee, but he didn't have to pile up all these bad contract guys. Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, and T.J. Ford were indeed signed by other people, but he picked them up. He also drafted uninspiring guys from the late lottery instead of taking more chances. This kept them in a cycle of being not that great, but not horrible enough to get anyone good.

He might have some promise now with Roy Hibbert, who has shown some low post moves. If Hibbert can be a decent center, and either Brandon Rush or Paul George steps up on the wings, they will have less spots to fill. Danny Granger, though he deserves better, is staying here because he is a solid citizen and nice guy and they need him. He and Collison will put up numbers and make this team somewhat watchable…. Just a little. They are still pretty bad in spots, particularly down low. They are the weakest at power forward in the whole league, and if Hibbert gets in foul trouble, they don't really have much center depth either.

It's going to be another 35 win year, but that may change soon. They have a shot at the playoffs if enough other teams falter.

Projected wins: 35

Washington Wizards

Hate level: 4

I HATE: The way they gave up last year. They dumped four starters for basically nothing. This wouldn't have hurt as much if they didn't already give up a top 5 pick before the season to make a run. They lost a potential top guy for Randy Foye and Mike Miller, both now gone. Horrible. They didn't get any young talent for Caron Butler or Antawn Jamison, just some low draft picks. Awful. Yeah, they were blindsided by the whole gun fiasco, but they could have responded better.

But then the summer came, and they got lucky in the lottery, and they made a few smart changes. They used their cap space to get Kirk Hinrich and Yi, two guys who could contribute right away. They also got some picks. Two big guys they had been working on for years, JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche, developed more. Now they have a more intriguing approach.

The real question is if they can move Gil Arenas. They might want to see how he does off the ball. I always though he'd be a better two guard, a la Iverson, but a guy who is used to having the ball in his hands so much might not adjust. If they can get something out of him, either by making him happy or setting up a deal, they might just be on their way, because John Wall is the real deal.

Projected wins: 31

Philadelphia 76ers

Hate level: 50

I HATE: Oh dear.

Where do I start?

Do I start with them dumping Maurice Cheeks too soon?

Do I start with Eddie Jordan not using anyone properly? Do I start with Doug Collins, who seems like a real reach? What a bizarre coaching carousel. I doubt it's over.

Do I start with them taking Evan Turner even though they already had a bunch of wings who couldn't shoot? They could have traded down and taken Cousins, Favors, Monroe… now Turner is getting bad reviews and probably won't even start on opening night. And since they traded Dalembert, they now have no legit starting center. Wonderful.

Do I start with them handing over too much money to Iguodala, even though he didn't really have any competition? I like him, but he's not worth that much.

I won't even touch Elton Brand because I did endorse that one. I'm as stupid as they were.

Look, they've tried hard to rebuild after letting Iverson go. This is not as bad as the Sixers teams I grew up with that tried to sell us on Shawn Bradley and Sharone Wright. No sir. They are picking up decent guys… it's just that they could be better and spend a lot less cash.

I don't know. I really don't. I like a few things. Jrue Holiday was a nice find at point, Lou Williams is a good combo guard scorer off the bench, and maybe Thad Young will come back. Spencer Hawes should not be a starter, but is fine as a backup, as is Mareese Speights. They're going to go small (as if they had a choice), which worked for them two years ago to get to the playoffs. It wouldn't be a huge shock. But they are going to be murdered down low, on defense, and on the boards.

Maybe they will work out some trades. Maybe Brand will finally come around. But for the most part, I can think of nothing but hate for my hometown team.

Projected wins: 30

Detroit Pistons

Hate level: 6

I HATE: Watching this crummy misfit team. They don't have a center or a point guard, just a bunch of combo forwards and off guards. How did Joe Dumars do so well before? He's lost it. He spent money on positions they already had, traded away their glue guy Billups, and put together a tremendously weird roster. He found some nice young guys in the second round, but he created such a logjam that it's hard to see what his plan is unless he has a bunch of trades coming.

Instead of going after a true center with post moves, they spent a lot on Charlie Villanueva, an outside shooter forward. Then they drafted a couple guys just like him. They brought in Ben Wallace off waivers presumably to be a veteran influence, but he ended up having to play major minutes for them because they didn't have any decent rebounders. They signed Ben Gordon and promoted Rodney Stuckey even though they already had lots of money tied up in Rip Hamilton. I don't get it.

And that's before the Tracy McGrady experiment. Joe D! Pay attention!

I do like Greg Monroe. Even though I think he's more of a forward than a center, he is crafty in the post and they will need him. If they can move Hamilton's big contract (and maybe using Tayshaun Prince's expiring), they will free up some minutes. Until then, I don't see why they get anywhere.

Projected wins: 28

New Jersey Nets

Hate level: 5

I HATE: They got jacked in the summer sweepstakes. I actually really liked what this team was doing the past few years. They had gotten old, and traded away all their guys for draft picks and younger ones. They created enough space and drafted well with the picks they did have to set up a strong run in free agency… except it never happened. Everyone turned them down and they had to overspend on Travis Outlaw just to reach the minimum salary.

I really thought they had a shot at LeBron and some of the other top guys. They had a nice base with Brook Lopez and Devin Harris, and a top draft pick in Derrick Favors. But he said no, and every other major free agent found a home. I still like their base, and if they can get a high scoring wing, they will be dangerous. They are going after Carmelo, but if they have to give up Harris and/or Favors to get him, it will be tough. Their best bet may be to try dealing Troy Murphy for someone during the season, or just waiting until the summer and see what happens.

For now, they will be better than 12 wins. I could see them sneaking into the playoffs if they just had a few more guys. They still need depth and scoring, though, so I am sticking them with around 30 wins. The good news is that they are (almost certainly) moving to Brooklyn, and they will have cap space again, so they can still look ahead.

Projected wins: 26

Cleveland Cavaliers

Hate level: 6

I HATE: I don't hate them. God or some force does. I feel terrible for the good people of Cleveland, who have never done anything to deserve what they have gone through. This is going to be maybe the hardest season anyone has had in the city.

I do have issues with the management. Maybe they never had a chance to keep LeBron. Maybe he was going to bail them with his buddies no matter what. I don't know. I do know that they missed several chances to impress him and get better. They tried, and they spent, but they didn't do it wisely until recent. For example, why didn't more people question signing Larry Hughes? He was not a shooter. He was a combo guard who liked to handle the ball. That was a terrible idea. I know that they went after Michael Redd and Ray Allen first that summer, and both of those guys turned them down. But that move nearly crippled them. It took them way too long to realize that LeBron's driving and passing abilities meant that they should surround him with good shooters. Once they did that, the team got better. They shouldn't have wasted his time with the likes of Hughes and Eric Snow, good passer but not shooters.

Last year, they could have done a lot more with different lineups, going small, and being innovative offensively, but they didn't. They dominated Boston at points in that series but didn't keep it up. That's partly to blame on coaching. It's not all LeBron's fault for their failures. They deserve some hate. [Not to mention Dan Gilbert's silly fonted, spurned-14-year-old girl angry letter. Not smart.]

And for this season, they could have done more. I'm glad they didn't make any panic trades to overpay for a guy to try to replace LeBron, but they could have at least bolstered depth. They barely made any moves at all. This has ensured them a place in the lottery, and that's probably the best way to go in the long term, but then why not trade some of their established guys? If they are going to be bad (they are), and they only traded for Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams to make a run with LeBron (they did), why keep them now? They don't fit a rebuilding plan. They could easily send those guys to contending teams to pick up draft picks and space. They're not big stars and they're not bringing fans in. They need to get on it.

Some have suggested that they could still be a playoff team. Uh, no. This talent level is not that good, and most of these guys were brought in to fit LeBron. Without him, they lose value. Williams isn't a real point guard, Jamison isn't a real big guy, and Varejao is not a scorer. They were good parts to a car that now has no engine. Who is even going to start at small forward? I would compare them to the Wizards, with Jamison and Williams as a Gil Arenas type…. except there's no Caron Butler. And the Wizards haven't been good. No, this team is not going to get close to winning, and they need to realize it. J.J. Hickson and some of the young wings should get more time. They're all that's left.

Projected wins: 22

Toronto Raptors

Hate level: 4

I HATE: Like Cleveland, they got dumped horribly but also didn't make any moves to help. If they didn't make the playoffs with Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu, they sure aren't going to after losing them for mostly nothing. They have a weird collection of wings and big guys who haven't done much. Their point guard battle took so many weird turns last year. They only decent scorer is Andrea Bargnani, who fed off of Bosh. This is going to be horrible.

They tried a few odd cleanup moves to help, but I don't know if they will. Linus Kleiza will have a chance to start, but he didn't do much in Denver when they needed him. Amir Johnson has been a nice energy guy down low, but they gave him a huge contract that just about everyone questioned. Leandro Barbosa can score, but is getting old.

Bryan Colangelo's plan to surround Bosh with a bunch of European players and emulate the Suns didn't work. There are no young studs save for DeMar DeRozan and Ed Davis, and they have questions. So I guess the question isn't if they are worse off than Cleveland, it's if God hates Canada more.

Projected wins: 18

By the way, I did check and my projected wins do add up realistically. They're only an approximation, but it could happen. YEAH! MATH!

…..

So… what does this all mean? Why do I hate so much? So many owners are easy to hate. I realized when making this preview that I can only support a few of them. So many players are earning so much for so little production. The owners decry the dumb contracts, but they gave them out. There is, by all accounts, going to be a lockout next year. They will make changes. I don't want to lose any games, but I know they can't continue like this. Which side do I root for?

But, I love basketball, and I'm curious about all the changes, so I will watch. I will watch and I will give them my money, and I will feel bad about it, but I can't stop.

The NBA! Where people who like basketball have no choice but to watch happens!

More predictions…

FINALS: Lakers over Heat in 6

I'm already dreading it.

CONFERENCE FINALS: Lakers over Mavs, Heat over Magic * - unless Boston gets Orlando in the semis, in which case, Heat over Celtics

MVP: Durant

Too easy. Kobe is taking it easy in the regular season, LeBron & wade cancel out for voters, and Dwight doesn't score enough for voters.

DEF: Dwight Howard

Joakim Noah and Rajon Rondo will get love, but Dwight has owned this.

ROOKIE: John Wall

I like Blake Griffin, but I question his health, and Wall has a better shot at the playoffs because his conference is weaker.

SIXTH MAN: Paul Millsap

Hard one to call. Houston has a few guys who could do it, and there's Jason Terry (but he already won), Lamar Odom, Delonte West, J.J. Redick, Mike Miller (if he's not out too long)… a lot of guys.

MOST IMPROVED: D.J. Augustin

I believe! My fantasy team believes! And he's the only guy at his spot on a team that's not terrible. It works. I also like James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, JaVale McGee, Anthony Randolph, and J.J. Hickson.

ALL NBA: Durant, LeBron, Dwight, CP, Kobe second – Stoudemire, Duncan, Nowitzki, De Williams, Roy

ALL ROOKIE: John Wall, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins, Wes Johnson, Greg Monroe

LeBron's choice: meh

2010-07-09T04:21:00.000-07:00

Wow, I haven’t posted on here in a while. I guess this is as good as a time as ever to write about basketball, though. This was a big day. This was a big decision. Was it worth making a whole event out of? Probably not, although there was legitimate suspense.

When I heard LeBron say that he was going to Miami, I was really disappointed. I don’t fault him for trying to win. I don’t fault him for going to a nice area. I don’t fault him for wanting to have star teammates. I don’t know if this was the way to do it, on national television with a contrived special, but that’s not the worst thing here.

I like basketball. It’s always been my favorite sport and the one I would play and watch if I could pick just one. I like following the NBA. I like having a league with star players and good teams, but also just enough drama so it’s not obvious which team is going to win it all. This signing has created an imbalance that is going to put things out of whack.

A lot of experts are trying to dull the wild expectations for the Miami triumvirate, pointing out that they don’t have a center, a bench, enough point guards, and any real help for the stars. It’s true, but it’s not going to matter soon. In a short time, they will be getting an influx of older veterans looking for a chance to win. After this year, they will have some exceptions to use as well. They can find a decent center, especially since they just need a defensive guy. They will find shooters on the cheap. They don’t even need a real point guard since LeBron and Wade can handle the ball so much. They just need guys who will defend and shoot, and they can find them fairly easily once they settle the roster.

In the past 15 years, the Heat had a lot of money tied up in big players, but they managed to find unheralded role players to fill in the roster. Guys like Anthony Carter, Bruce Bowen, Ike Austin, (later) Keyon Dooling, my boy Rasual Butler, Udonis Haslem and Rafer Alston all got to play there while they had money tied up with bigger stars. Pat Riley has done it and he will do it. Getting three all-league guys in their prime was the hardest part, and they’ve done that.

So yes, I expect them to win now and win a lot more in the next few years. I don’t buy the people trying to downplay it. This is huge. LeBron’s decision alters the power in the East, not just for Miami, but for all the teams he passed on. With him and Bosh going to Miami, Cleveland and Toronto will suck. Hard. New Jersey has nothing yet - though I like their foundation, there is no player left that can turn things around for them anytime soon. New York is disappointed. They needed two big free agents and they’re not getting them. Even if they could land Tony Parker and Carmelo next year, I wouldn’t put them above Miami once they settle things. Their best bet might be to try to get Chris Paul. They need someone to get the ball to Amare, and if not, this team isn’t much better than it was the last few years. It might make the playoffs, but it’s not a lock. Atlanta is good but they’ve probably reached their ceiling. No one really considers them a title threat, even if they can win 50 games a year. They can’t spend much more money, and they’re small. Chicago is good, and if they would’ve gotten Joe Johnson, I would say they are a true contender, but they need more scoring now. I don’t know who is left that would save them. Milwaukee surprised people and showed some poise with some unknown guys, but they just spent a lot of money on guys with a history of attitude problems. Those were some bizarre moves after they had just put together a likable team. I don’t know what’s up with that franchise; they’ve been one of the nuttiest.

The rest of the conference is in bad shape. The Sixers? Yeah that didn’t work. The Bobcats are just okay and might lose Raymond Felton, the Pistons are a mess and full of bad contracts, the Wizards blew themselves up and will take a while to recover, the Pacers are the definition of mediocre and have been treading water unsuccessfully, and… that’s it. The only team that could go from lottery to playoffs is New York.

I have to say that Boston and Orlando are really the only teams you can put above Miami, and I’m dubious about them. Boston struggled during the regular season, and even though they made a triumphant rebirth in the playoffs, I wonder how much they have left. KG lifted himself up in the postseason, but he’s clearly hurting and on the downside. Those guys are all headed downhill, except for Rondo. Even though they made that great run, do you believe it will happen next year? In 2 years? I think it was their last stand.

Orlando finished the regular season hot, but didn’t look as coherent as they did a year ago in the playoffs. They’re probably the favorites… but no matter how bad Miami will get beat at center, do you trust Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis to handle Wade and LeBron? Dwight may kill inside, but then, who guards Bosh on the other end? I don’t trust that team completely. And again, in another year, they will have to make a decision on Vince and who knows what they will look like.

LeBron’s move really put the conference at whole into a state of panic. No team can deal with this firepower, they can only hope they have more balance. And again, after next year, things will look even better for Miami. Throw in the fact that Kobe is getting older, Amare left Phoenix, and Denver is a question mark….

Should we get ready for a couple of Miami vs. Oklahoma City finals? I don’t care if it will feature 4 of the best guys in the game, it just sounds awful. HEAT! THUNDER! It’s a freaking weather forecast.

That brings me to the second part of my post: the city aspect. I’m biased here, because I grew up near Philly in the rough Midwest-to-northeast sports craze. People care about sports there, maybe too much. We have awful teams sometimes, but we wear our devotion to them on our sleeve, and our suffering is like a badge of honor. See: Red Sox, Cubs, et al. Since I have moved to California, I have noticed the difference in bloodthirsty fans vs. laid back. It’s just not the same. Miami (the whole state of Florida, really) is very fair-weather, except for football. The Heat had such a weird crowd during the past few years, and they weren’t always into it. For us die-hards, it is painful to watch a beautiful city where people have better things to do get the spoils.

Until now, it was cool to have LeBron play in his hometown, a city that had suffered so much heartbreak. It would have been a great story, one of the best sports stories in years, for him to lead them to a title and erase all that pain. When I realized that the Sixers had made a terrible mistake this year, I drifted towards rooting for the Cavs for the playoffs, just because I wanted that pain to be over. I knew how they felt. I’m feeling you, Cleveland. You don’t deserve this.

I know that it was unfair to LeBron to have that much pressure on him, and he shouldn’t carry all the weight. It’s not worth killing him over. He did choose less money and better teammates. I’m more puzzled that he would change his legacy this quick. I’m not calling him Scottie Pippen as thousands seem to be. I think that he and Wade will try to say (at least publicly) that they are equals, and they will try to be treated as co-stars, rather than have one get more billing (don’t know if Bosh will be in the same level). But of course, he’ll never be seen in the same light and any discussion of great players will ultimately bring up the fact that he left to join up with other guys, while other great players had good sidekicks come to them. He was headed to a place in maybe the top ten players of all-time, but now, you can’t put him above Wade, and everything he does will have to be shared.

I remember when I was growing up and I desperately wanted Barkley to beat Jordan just once in the playoffs. Someone suggested to me that, if Sir Charles wanted a championship, he should try to join the Bulls. That sounded stupid to me. What would be the fun in that? Later on, he did join a team that had always foiled him in the playoffs, the Rockets. It felt weird. I had to root for the team that had embarrassed my own team and had grown to despise. It didn’t work. I know this is not like LeBron joining Boston or Orlando, but it is a weird collection of power. Someone compared it to A-Rod joining the Yankees. That’s not so far off. People are going to hate the Heat for having so much, and root against them every year. I always feel better when the Yankees lose in the playoffs. Of course, they didn’t last year. Talent usually wins out sooner or later, especially if it is kept in place for several years. People are going to hope the Heat never win, and they’re going to be disappointed. Maybe not this year, but soon.

(You know who looks really good right now? Tim Duncan. Look at his supporting cast in his first three titles. He had a few nice players …. who were either really old or really young. He never really played with another all-star in their actual prime until Parker and Ginobli developed, and that was after the 2003 title…. and in 2005 they weren’t all the way there either. David Robinson was not nearly what he once was during this stretch. Duncan’s resume might be the most amazing. Think about it.)

I don’t like it when all the big cities get the perks. New York and Los Angeles (and Chicago, to a point) get to have all the fun, and small markets are shut out. I liked having Cleveland in the mix. It’s odd that LeBron chose one middle-level market over another, especially after his flirtation with the Knicks and Bulls. But even though I don’t like those cities getting everything, I do understand why the league wants it that way. Big markets and interesting teams help boost ratings. I’ve been angry at how easy the Lakers and Celtics were able to rebuild, with some really lopsided trades, but they have tried hard and spent money, and they are signature franchises. Miami just isn’t in that group, although they will attract viewers. At least if LeBron had gone to New York, there would be a story. If he stayed, Cleveland was doing well with him there. I can’t imagine that David Stern is too happy about all his stars being in one place that doesn’t have great media ratings or fan support. I’m sure he liked all the attention this had been getting, but maybe he sees today how non-fans are turning on LeBron for his TV oversaturation and hating Miami as a whole. I don’t know. I think he would have liked more parity, or at least more stars spread out. It will be interesting to see how he responds.

In the end, I’m not feeling great about watching the league in the next few years. I like having the mystery of several teams that could win it. I don’t like having one dominant team and seeing if they win or not. I was always slightly disappointed that no one could knock off Jordan, I don’t like baseball as much because the Yankees-Red Sox pull is too much, and I was furious when the Kings couldn’t close the Lakers. There are some good young teams to watch like OKC and maybe the Clippers, but this is going to overshadow the whole league. If Miami had just gotten Bosh to go with Wade and spent that remaining money on several decent but not star level guys, and Lebron picked Cleveland / Chicago / New York / New Jersey, we would have a lively battle in the east next year with four really nice teams - Miami, LeBron’s team, Boston, and Orlando, with maybe Chicago (if he didn’t go there) also a possibility. Now it’s thinner at the top, and everyone else is going be losing hope.

I can only pray that more young stars will turn into superstars and give the league more balance, because with 30 teams to spread talent around, having 2 of the top 5 guys and 3 of the top 15 in one place is really nuts.

West preview, the upper

2009-12-11T01:35:00.000-08:00

PHOENIX SUNS

For all the talk of the Shaq experiment failing, it wasn't really him. They never should have tried to stop pushing it and didn't have the defenders to try. They did fine with him in D'Antoni's offense. Terry Porter's worst crime was making Nash a secondary player. Why waste him like that?

So yes, now that it's over, I expect a much less stressful year for them. They shouldn't have any problem getting back in the playoffs this year. I don't have them as contenders, however, because of some key injury concerns. Nash and Stoudemire are always risks to go down, and they don't have key backups. I thought the Suns were going to draft a point guard, since there were so many this year, but they continue to leave Nash without a real sub. If he goes down, they're done. Amare is irreplaceable in the lineup, even if Robin Lopez progresses, because his scoring is unmatchable. Amare also has all the trade rumors and free agency issues to deal with, but he should still be fine if healthy. I don't think their rotation is that bad without Shaq - Channing Frye and Earl Clark may fit them nicely, and they're gonna go small a lot anyway. As I've said a million times, they should have kept some of those draft picks. They didn't, and now they have to hold their fingers.

Again, the conference is so that they shouldn't have any problems getting in the postseason, but I don't know if they go anywhere.

UTAH JAZZ

This team was considered so hot and so dangerous two or three years ago when they snuck into the conference finals. They had all these young big guys, Deron Williams, and a host of options. But they haven't really made a jump.

The problem here is that the pieces don't all fit. Boozer and Okur are great offensive big men but terrible defenders. They thought maybe Kirilenko would make up for that, but he doesn't really fit next to them. He doesn't really have a position they can use him for. They need shooters on the wing, but Korver (as I saw in Philly) should be a three man and a becnh player only. Giving him extended minutes at guard is going to kill them defensively. Ronnie Brewer is slowing coming along, but still needs to shoot better.

I expected them to make trades with Boozer and maybe Kirilenko to bring in a shooting forward, but it hasn't happened yet. Matt Harpring is still around, but who knows how much he has left. I like that they got a backup point in Maynor, but they have a weird roster. Why have they loaded up on young post players? They know Boozer will be gone soon, but what about everyone else?

I can't predict their season because it seems like they have a few moves up their sleeve. They need a scoring wing to really contend. They're still ultimately in good shape for the future, with Williams and thsoe young big guys.... and, again, they have the Knicks' pick next year (hold on AAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAH oh, Isiah HAHAHA) so they're fine. This season looks like it will be hard to predict, but I'm guessing they have a low playoff seed and try to fix the roster.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

After such a promising season in '08, last year ended in near disaster in the playoffs. Now, I'm not sure what to think. The Hornets seemed to be in financial hot water when they started trading away guys. Giving up my boy Rasual was tough. Almost giving up Tyson Chandler for cap relief would've been terrible. Trading him later for Emeka Okafor was puzzling in that it didn't seem to help either team, or give them financial relief. Finally, they brought on payroll to get Darius Songalia, which was an okay but not great move. I don't know. I really don't.

One of Okafor's problems in Charlotte was deciding if he was a 4 or 5. In the West, he may be a bit small for center. That could hurt, but it's not a big change. Losing Rasual Butler is going to kill them if Stojakovic is still hurting. His injury, and Chandler's, are what really killed them last season.

Despite the injury woes, the Hornets still won about 50 games and were playoff bound. They should be still, but some of these moves have confused me about the direction of this franchise. They need a lot more to contend, and who knows if money will be spent to do that.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

After they finally broke through last year, the Team With Infinite Upside seems like a candidate to take the next step to contender. After all, they won 54 games and tied for the second-best record in the whole conference even though they had holes at point guard and lots of injuries. Now, they have Andre Miller and another year of experience. They should be awesome, right?

Something doesn't feel right to me here. Because they broke the 50 game mark easy, I won't doubt them to do it again. But their no-show in the playoffs suggests that they need more time. After acquiring so many interesting young guys, they may want to figure out which ones they want. Eventually, people are going to get pissed about playing time. Miller is a nice point, and he saved the Sixers many times over the past few years, but people are questioning his ability to play with Brandon Roy. I thought the plan was to have Roy be the main ball carrier and have Jerryd Bayless play off of him as a scorer. They barely used Bayless, who was once considered a top pick. They ought to trade him before other teams think something is up.

They also have a logjam at the three, although I'm guessing they will use Outlaw more as a backup big guy (see next point). They could just give time to Rudy, and have Batum as defensive specialist. They will need Outlaw at the 4 because there's no experienced backup there. I think they should be just a little worried that the only true big guys are Oden, Pryzbilla, and Aldridge. If they get any injuries, they'll be in trouble, and their centers haven't had a great history of health. They have Juwon Howard, but he's been around a long time. It would be smart of them to go small with all their guards, but Nate McMillan hasn't done that too much.

It wouldn't surprise me to see them win 55 or even 60 games, but I'm still not sold on them as a real threat to the Lakers until I see more.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

This is one of my favorite stories of the offseason - the Mavs reverting to their star-loading days of old. You may remember the early part of the decade, when they tried to load up with big name guys around Nowitzki, Finley, and Nash. They brought in Juwon Howard, Raef LaFrentz, Antoine Walker, Nick Van Exel, Antawn Jamison, and tried to create lineups with all stars and no role players or real centers. It didn't work well. Eventually, the Mavs did better and made the Finals with a bunch of supporting people around Nowitzki, including two true centers who cared about defense.

Now, they seem to be moving in the same old direction. After two years of slowing down, they brought in Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas, while not adding any post guys. They also lost key glue PF Brandon Bass. They can now throw out an interesting but small lineup of Nowitzki, Marion, Josh Howard, Terry, and Kidd. It's not so much different than those early lineups, although Kidd will not be a scorer, and that's good for him. They need to mix in role players like Quinton Ross and whatever big men they have left. Marcin Gortat would have been a nice help, but Orlando's trickiness got them.

Still, I think they can manage this a little better than they did last time. I like Kidd and Terry in the same backcourt, and I like Marion playing inside more to help Nowitzki. The only problem I can see is if Marion and Howard are too similar, but that's about it. I still think they need another big man, but if they can give minutes to defensive minded guys like Ross and Dampier with those scorers, maybe they will have enough shots to go around. I don't think they can compete with the Lakers without adding another big man, but they can be the second best team and hope for a lucky break if everything works right.

DENVER NUGGETS

No team made me look worse last year than the Nuggets. Coming off a season in which they only got the 8th seed in the playoffs, they basically dumped Marcus Camby for nothing, just to save money, and to make it seem like they needed overpaid and often injured post guys. It did not seem like a great idea (at least, on the court) for a team without much defense or post depth and lots of shooters to trade away its only quality big man / defender / rebounder. I thought it would kill them.

Miraculously, Kenyon Martin and Nene finally had some healthy seasons. K Mart found some of the old defense and rebounding that made him the first pick, while Nene finally showed the offensive skills that made him a high pick too. The Nuggs gambled on these guys because they knew they could never trade either of them, and they had to play them with all the money they were owed, and somehow it worked. They also got a big boost from Chris "Birdman" Andersen, completing the rotation.

Their other risky move was trading Iverson for Billups, which was a pretty easy deal in hindsight. Even though Iverson and Melo had both put up big numbers with each other, they never really gelled, and having a real outside shooter next to Melo (constantly getting double teamed) is ideal. It was hard for the Nuggets to put Melo, Iverson, and JR Smith on the court at the same time, and now they could load up on the perimeter. Add in some inspired play from Anthony Carter and Dahntay Jones, and Denver had a surprise run to the conference finals.

Denver's season was hailed as a matter or risks paying off, and everything coming together. Rightfully so. But now, it seems like everyone is writing them off. If everything that could go right did last year, what's the chance of it happening again? They won't get that luck or that teamwork again, many say. Many are also pointing out George Karl's history, how a lot of his successful teams have fallen apart. Indeed, he's a guy who always seems to wear on his guys eventually.

I don't doubt any of this, and I would never put money or anything of value on this team. I, too, can see it all falling apart. But since so many people are suspecting that they will fall back this year, I'll offer some ideas on why they might just stick around:

1. Melo made some big steps last year. He has so many ways to score right now, so he's not going to stop.

2. They figured out how to use Smith properly, even if it means benching him when he gets too wild.

3. Nene's health problems were weird and not something that suggests long term problems. K Mart is always a threat to go down, and his knees are shaky, but Nene looked fine. His improvement on offense is not something to overlook. He's got a nice post game, which makes him super valuable now.

4. They still haven't found a use for Linus Kleiza. He has a chance to contribute. I like him as a forward in a small lineup to space things out with more shooters. If K Mart does go down at some point, they could play him next to Melo and Birdman down low.

Sure, they could all get hurt, or mutiny, but I think they have just enough depth, including Ty Lawson, to keep things from really getting bad. I have them as one of the top 4 or 5 teams, and really, the only thing that keeps them down in the west order is how other teams have improved.

They can't knock off the Lakers without more big guys and depth, but it doesn't seem like they can add much now with their finances. Still, they're in the discussion of the next teams out west.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

After a rare early exit, people were talking about the Spurs being too old. Were they? Or was it just that Ginobli was hurt? They did need another big guy, and maybe some depth. They responded with much more vigor than anyone expected, getting Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. Then they picked up a draft steal in DeJuan Blair and appear to be loaded again.

They are the number one threat to take down the Lakers.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

The reigning champs were kind of a downer for me to watch people (suddenly) care in this town (and then just as suddenly disappear). It just didn't feel like they were properly tested. No one in the West could stick with them. After Yao went down, the Rockets, who were probably the most frisky team

Extended Season Preview: the Lower

2009-11-05T18:22:00.000-08:00

In the first part of my in-depth preview, I look at the lottery teams. The sidewalk is their pillow this year. I will go in mostly worst-to-best order, not exact, but the mediocre teams come last.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

Remember when they almost won the title? That was only seven years ago, right? It seems like 50. Actually, it seems like this is the late 1980's for them all over again. This is the worst roster in the league by far. The only good thing I might be able to say is that they used to be stuck in mediocrity hell, being at the top of lottery teams and getting just okay draft picks, but now they're clearly just bad and will get high picks. Their talent level is low and they haven't drafted any guys recently to change that.

Tyreke Evans was supposed to help, but fits into that problem. I know, I know, after the Rubio disaster, they might look smart for not taking him and going with Evans. But Evans is not a point guard. People like him but they compare him to Jerry Stackhouse, which is not exactly what this team needs. Spencer Hawes is a nice young center, but I don't think he's a franchise player. Jason Thompson is in the same boat, and there's no big man depth behind them. Poor Kevin Martin is going to score 30 points a night because no one else can. He's going to be exhausted.

This team needs a major overhaul and might be leaving Sacto soon. In the meantime, things aren't looking any better. I will watch to see if Donte Green or Omri Casspi show anything, but I see a team without any great hope.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Few teams have had such a busy offseason, but most of the others have something to show for it. This franchise made news by getting a lot of nothing. Let's go back a few years to see how this all went wrong: they got less than they could on deals for KG and Sam Cassell. That sent them downhill and eventually cost Kevin McHale his job. Then, this summer, they traded Rnady Foye, who they were once really high on, for a pick in a less-than-stellar draft. Then, they used that pick (and their own) on two point guards, one of whom was iffy to stay in the draft. I don't know if there was something different they could have done to keep the infamous Ricky Rubio, but drafting another similar player next was not a good start. Now they are really thin in the back court, have no stars next to Jefferson, and are going to keep being bad for a while.

On the plus side, Kevin Love turned out to be fit for the NBA after all, and Jonny Flynn, while no Rubio, is a nice point who has room to grow. They really need wings, and they gave most of theirs away, but they still hope Corey Brewer will make something happen. That's four guys to build on.. but not much more. If they can land a star wing in the next draft or two, they might have the makings of something. For now, another long winter beckons.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Back around my senior year of high school, I worked at a store that sold sports memorabilia. It was really the perfect job for me because I could use sports knowledge to helpless moms and girlfriends looking for gift ideas. They had cards and figurines, and random things with logos like lamps and trash cans. There was a Vancouver Grizzlies trash can that always sat in the corner. I don't know why they had it, but it was clear they were never going to sell it. I took pity on it and told them it would make a nice Christmas gift. I still have it in my room.

I started watching this team because they struggled and they were in a beautiful city with nice people, according to everything I've ever heard. They drafted likable guys like Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Mike Bibby, but they kept losing. They eventually moved to Memphis, and had to deal everyone, but they turned things around. They brought in Jerry West, they drafted well, and they even made the playoffs. They had a nice roster, but at some point, the jackass owner decided that winning 50 games was not worth the money and they'd rather lose again. Of course! Who wants to be good when you can be bad for less money? What a great f---ing business plan! So they traded away their franchise player, and they lost.

I've never turned so hard. I went from rooting for them to openly demanding their non-existence. This franchise should not be around until they get someone else in charge. It's awful. I enjoyed seeing this team win, but then the owner brought down the hatchet and brought in a guy (Chris Wallace) to ensure they would lose and cut costs. He's made my brain bleed with his moves, which are so bad sometimes that it's amazing he can even function and has some talent on this roster.

For example, I noticed something about the Gasol trade that might make it even worse than we originally thought. Midway through the season, Memphis dealt Javaris Crittenton, the only good young player they got in that trade, to the Wizards for a first round pick. Not a bad investment, right? Well, it turns out that they were just getting back a pick that Washington had gotten from them two years ago in the Juan Carlos Navarro deal.

This got me thinking... two summers ago, the Wizards were looking to deal Navarro (they held his rights, but he didn't want to go there) to a number of teams after he had been a standout in Spain. He chose Memphis, mainly because they had his friend and fellow national team member Pau Gasol. Thus, when the Grizz dealt Gasol a few months later, they pretty much ensured that Navarro would not be coming back there. He indeed left after a decent rookie year.

So let's do the math here: they made a horrible trade, which itself created another problem around a guy he had just given up a future top pick for, and then traded one of the few decent assets of that horrible trade just to make up for that other problem that was created by that same horrible trade. I think this is like some circular reference, only it comes out in the negative. Needless to say, I haven't seen anyone compound themselves quite like Chris Wallace.

And now, he brings in Zach Randolph. He scores but does nothing else and screws up chemistry. You can't build a team around him. Pau Gasol took them to the playoffs three times. They could build around him. But to save money, they dumped him, and some other veterans who could win. Now they have an interesting young core, but they're going to ruin it with Z-Bo (and AI) demanding the ball. And, most amazingly, he makes about the same amount of money as Gasol. If they had just kept PG, they'd have a great foundation. Beautiful work, Chris.

Anyway, after reading my post about Iverson, I'm certain now that this is not going to work. He had the chances to do good last year and didn't. He might be getting desperate, and he claims he will try to fit in, but this is not a setting that evokes success. I would contract this team and send these young guys elsewhere if I could. Alas, they will be around this year. Sometimes, I don't like the NBA.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Remember that long rant I had before the draft about this franchise? They kept trading guys or not trading guys because of who they had, only to then trade those guys who were supposedly valuable to them? Well, it has reached an all-time low. They dumped Richard Jefferson (who cost them a former high pick) for money to save, so they could (I thought) keep Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions. Nope. Both gone. They've been bad recently and have nothing to show for several of those lottery picks. That is enough to ruin a franchise that spends, let alone one that doesn't.

This might be the most depressing situation in the league, if it wasn't for some comically abysmal other ones. I don't know if this team will ever be sold or not, but they have really just given up. The only young guys they have to build around are all suspect and unproven. The one guy that probably should get traded - veteran shooter (and expensive) Michael Redd - is still here. They got a nice bargain in Hakim Warrick, but if not for him, they wouldn't even have a real frontcourt. Throw in flashy but raw rookie Brandon Jennings at the point and we have a long, long season. I imagine they will start to field offers for Redd. Unless Andrew Bogut becomes a real offensive force, this team is dead.

NEW YORK KNICKS
NEW JERSEY NETS

I group these teams together because they play near each other and they've had the same goal for the past two years: get rid of guys with big contracts, develop young stars, and save cap space for this summer to get LeBron or other big free agents. Everyone points to the Knicks as the favorite to get the big stars, but the Nets have actually put together a much better roster. The Nets have a young star point guard in Devin Harris, a decent true center with post up moves (a rarity these days) in Brook Lopez, a nice guard who can shoot threes and defend in Courtney Lee, rebounders Josh Boone and Sean Williams, interesting wings Terrence Williams and Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Yi, who might be a bust, but is a big guy who can shoot, which is nice to have (and he'd help out with Chinese market expansion.... he's more of an off-court asset than on, amazingly). The Knicks have some nice pieces.... David Lee and Jordan Hill can board, but they aren't centers, wing Wilson Chandler is good, forward Danilo Gallinari is promising but I don't know where he plays, and Nate Robinson can score but is not a point and maybe shoots too much. And that's it. On top of that, they don't have their first round pick next year because of the Marbury trade (AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HAHA HAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAA IT'S STILL HAUNTING THEM) , and that hurts. Jersey will have their high pick, plus Dallas' pick.

So tell me why LeBron doesn't take a look at the Nets?

I said this a while ago, but the experts said that it wouldn't matter without them moving to Brooklyn. Now, with a fancy Russian billionaire involved, who knows? As for this year, both of them will struggle to win 30 games. I think the Knicks will because they're desperate, and have no reason to fold without that draft pick. They will try to trade Jared Jeffries and Eddy Curry, but who wants them? I'm watching, as is everyone. This will be a boring, yet very interesting year in the big apple.

NOT THE SUPERSONICS

I still can't name this team, especially when they are looking like a future powerhouse. Really rubs it in to Seattle, and they don't deserve that. They've drafted well and have a great core group of young stars. I like Harden a lot, and he doesn't even have to do much to succeed. They don't really have any big men for now, but they have some interesting guys coming up, like Ibaka and Mullens, who was once considered a top prospect. Durant will probably lead the league in scoring this year... and many more years after that. I think they'll be fun to watch, but they still need some actual depth and inside work to get to the postseason.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

You have to love the dubs, even if they hate themselves. This is a fascinating team that can score 150 points in a game, or give it up. There's no way to predict what will happen... except that, it was like this last year, and they didn't win 30 games. I imagine more of the same, but who knows? Anthony Randolph could be great. He could also flame out, freak out, and have to go somewhere else to thrive. Stephen Curry could be rookie of the year, or he could be buried because they have enough shooters. Stephen Jackson could pout, or.... actually, I don't think he'll stick around that long. That's one of the few safe bets here.

Despite the surprise loss of Baron Davis, Nellie has managed to keep this team loaded with interesting pieces. I don't know if they fit together - well, I know they don't in a traditional sense, but he doesn't care - but they can be good. I am intrigued to see what happens.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

This roster frustrates me. There isn't a single franchise player on it. No one is a lock to average 20 points a game. No one is ranked at the top 5 at their position. They have two point guards who look nice, but not great, fighting for minutes. They have a bunch of bad centers and not enough wings. No one will come close to making the all-star team, no one will be someone casual fans think of, no one is really exciting. Despite all this, they came within sniffing distance of the playoffs last year.

How???

Larry Brown has put together a roster that fits but doesn't amaze. He got rid of his one consistent outside threat, Jason Richardson, to get two decent but unspectacular starters in Boris Diaw and Raja Bell. He let Gerald Wallace handle things and most of the scoring, even though he's more of a slasher. He traded Emeka Okafor, not really a center or a forward or a franchise player, to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler, which brings defense but even less offense. I don't know who is going to score for this team, but I didn't last year and they did ok. Not good. But okay. They might have been a threat to slip in a weak playoff bracket, but the conference has improved enough so that I doubt that will happen.

Let's hope.

DETROIT PISTONS

As I said in my Iverson piece, I really thought they would be inspired last year and wouldn't lose a step, but they lost a flight of stairs and then some. They barely made the playoffs in a conference not as strong as it was when they dominated just a few years ago. No one really said much, because they were clearly setting up cap space to make a big run this summer. They did just that, grabbing Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

But why? They had a decent team. Was Joe Dumars bored? Was he unhappy that they had made a bunch of conference finals and was a consistent contender? He thought they'd never pass the up-and-coming teams, and maybe they wouldn't with the same roster, but a few moves here and there would have strengthened this team. He had already done well by drafting Rodney Stuckey, a nice combo guard to come off the bench, and young bigs in Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson. Detroit's problem in the years after that unlikely title was not the starting lineup, but depth; they won that title with more depth than people think, and a few post options. They were quietly putting together a young bench to help themselves, but Dumars got impatient. Now he has two people who don't really fix anything. Gordon gives them some of the same problems as Iverson did with fitting people in, and Villanueva is like Sheed... without the D.

Letting Ben Wallace go was the right idea, but they never got around to adding a real post player after that. Sheed didn't want to do that, and so they suffered. I thought they would rectify this and get a real center, especially after they gained so many forwards, but they spent money on two more outside guys. Now their center spot will be manned by a combination of a very washed up Ben, Chris Wilcox, and (gasp) Kwame Brown. Yikes. That's not getting you to the playoffs.

So they're back to where they were last year, and not much better, so I don't have them in the postseason. If they could make a trade (Hamilton for Boozer?) to get a real big man, they could be good. Right now, I don't understand what Dumars is doing.

INDIANA PACERS

Here's my preview for the Pacers last year:

"This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up."

Nothing changes. They added nice, quiet role players like Tyler Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones, just to replace people. No big shake ups. No trying anything outside the box. They are officially in mediocrity hell - not bad enough to land someone to make a difference, but not good enough to go anywhere. 36 wins again.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Much like Bill Simmons, I started following this team when I moved out here because, well, every other area pro team is pretty hatable. They're good at getting people who are sick of the Lakers and that bandwagon mess. I knew the experience would be depressing, but it's a whole different kind of depressing right now, because they actually have talent. The old Clippers teams were horrible because they drafted horrible people and didn't spend money on free agents. They had no one. In the past few years, however, they have made some nice moves and have even opened the checkbook a little. Yet they still lose.

The main problem, as the Sports Guy has banged out many times, is that Dunleavy the coach is much worse than Dunleavy the G.M., but he can't fire himself. And the owner never cares. I once thought maybe there was a chance that Stern would dump Sterling, but it's obvious now that he lets him off the hook, especially since it was revealed that the Clippers make money (which just makes me think the world is a bad place sometimes). In this rough time of economic problems, when small market franchises are struggling, I was hoping that Stern would realize that he had the chance to have two good teams in a big market, if he let someone else take over. The Clips could and should be better, making more of a rivalry with their much famous city-mates, but he's content to let them be bad. Oh well. I'd say they would bring in more money, but if they already do, nothing happens. And considering what's gone on in Golden State, Atlanta, Charlotte.... he's not even number one on the s-list anymore. All we can pray for is his death. Seriously. (On the bright side, he seems like a guy who would have a lot of vendettas against him.)

Anyway, this should be a playoff team, but it won't be. The starting five is balanced, and they picked up my boy Rasual Butler as a much needed wing off the bench. Blake Griffin should be rookie of the year, because there's really no one else, but if he's hurt.... well... maybe that makes sense. They even have a decent bench now, with Butler, Craig Smith, Sebastian Telfair, and several centers who will have to share time. None of this matters, because they don't like Dunleavy. Baron Davis regretted his signing almost immediately and has barely tried in his time here. A real owner would tell Dunleavy to bring in a coach, but this is how it goes.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Speaking of franchises with no luck.... these guys tried to create a solid team based around star players, and it was working great, until their bones broke like Sam Jackson in "Unbreakable." Last year, they finally had gotten the right mixture of role players around two big stars - T Mac and Yao - and a third almost star (Artest). They had followed the San Antonio plan to a t. They had settled on point guard and power forward rotations, their most troubled spots the past few years. If they had been all healthy (and for T Mac, honest), they would have been a major contender.

Instead, they go into this season with all supporters and no leads. I don't blame them, and with McGrady's contract expiring, they have a shot to come out of this ok. As for now, though, the regular season will be tough. I don't know who is going to score for them. They like Trevor Ariza, but he can't be the lead guy here. They are totally set up for the stars who are gone, so offense is a mystery. Still, can't you see them staying near .500 and driving people crazy? I envision the scrappy Orlando team that got Doc Rivers his Coach of the Year award. I just have a feeling they'll scrap and be better than they should be. Ultimately, the conference is probably too good for them to make the playoffs. If the Suns were good last year and didn't make it in with 46 wins.... they're in trouble. They will fight hard, they will surprise people, but they have a tough slate.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

The last lottery team on my slate is the hometown guys. First things first - let me congratulate them again on going back to the old logo and red-white-and-blue uniforms, as they always should have been.

Unfortunately, though, I have them in this section because I don't think they will make the playoffs. I think they will get close, and will probably flirt with .500, because they have done so the last 2 seasons with a similar cast. I just don't think they have enough, and the conference is better. Still, I'm not that angry. They've made some changes and there will be more to come. I accept this as a year of transition, because they have a lot to work on before they get anywhere. I also know that they've been building for after this season, when the entire East could change dramatically. Some teams are old (Boston) and some could change next year (Cleveland, Miami, well, almost everyone else). When the dust is settled after this summer, who knows what the East will look like, but the Sixers will have quietly put together a good team - if they do it right.

As I've said before, I didn't like them giving up on Mo Cheeks so early, especially right after he had inspired them at their lowest point (the Iverson trade, which left the team nearly dead). But he's not coming back now and I like Eddie Jordan enough to give him some time. He wants to revamp the offense, and that's good.

Basically, this year is about answering questions. Is Andre capable of playing guard and hitting outside shots? I know he's a great slasher and defender, and he will score, but he could be a regular all-star if he improves from outside. Is Lou Williams a point? Is Jrue Holiday ready soon? Is Thad a wing or a guy who excels in small lineups? Is there any way to make Dalambert worth the money? I always liked him. I don't want to give up on him yet. Does anyone else see the irony of souring on Korver and then dumping him, only to pick up Kapono a little bit later to do the same exact thing? (Actually, I know the answer to this - Korver was gone to get cap space. Still, it's funny.) Is Elton ever going to look like he did? Can I get excited about Speights?

These are the questions I want answered before the end of the season. There are many concerns, but I think Jordan will be looking at all of them. If he can figure this out, then in a year or two, they will be in a good position.

Leo's 2009-2010 NBA Season Preview, Abridged

2009-10-27T02:02:00.000-07:00

I will go more into depth later, but here are some quick predictions for the upcoming NBA season:

RECORDS, APPROX.

WEST
1. Lakers 60
2. Spurs 58
3. Blazers 55
4. Mavericks 54
5. Nuggets 51
6. Hornets 50
7. Jazz 49
8. Suns 47

9. Rockets 40
10. Clippers 36
11. Not Sonics 34
12. Warriors 32
13. TWolves 22
14. Grizzlies 21
15. Kings 18

EAST

1. Cavs 62
2. Celtics 60
3. Magic 58
4. Hawks 48
5. Bulls 44
6. Raptors 43
7. Wizards 42
8. Heat 40

9. Sixers 38
10. Pacers 36
11. Pistons 35
12. Bobcats 33
13. Knicks 32
14. Nets 26
15. Bucks 20

PLAYOFFS - FIRST ROUND

Lakers over Suns
Spurs over Jazz
Mavs over Nuggets
Blazers over Hornets

Cavs over Heat
Celtics over Wizards
Magic over Raptors
Bulls over Hawks

SECOND ROUND
Lakers over Nuggets
Spurs over Blazers

Cavs over Bulls
Celtics over Magic

CONF FINALS
Lakers over Spurs
Cavs over Celtics

THE 2010 NBA FINALS

Cavs over Lakers in 7

MVP: LeBron

DEF: Dwight Howard

COACH: Rick Adelman (or someone who surprises me)

ROOKIE: Blake Griffin (even if he is hurt)

6TH MAN: Manu

MIP: Marco Bellinelli

The Irony of Iverson

2009-09-15T01:30:00.000-07:00

Allen Iverson is on the Memphis Grizzlies.

What do I say about this? This was the guy who revived interest in the Sixers for me - and a lot of other kids - at a point where they were dead. After a bunch of awful draft picks, they took Iverson first, and while he didn't win right away, we could see he was talented and passionate. He eventually got them in the playoffs consistently and to one Finals appearance. Now he's on the most disrespected team this side of the Clippers, and one that has been mostly terrible in its existence, and then traded away its only all-star ever to save money just when it had a decent team.

What happened?

The Pistons shut down Allen Iverson for the rest of the season just a few weeks before it was over. In danger of missing the playoffs, they had to cut him out for injuries, but also for nearly wrecking team spirit. He hadn't been happy coming off the bench or just being in Detroit in general. They thought they might just be better without him for the next few weeks. How could this happen to a guy who was always one of the better scorers in the league, right up until the time he arrived there?

There's a lot of irony in how badly the Iverson experiment failed in Detroit... irony for the people involved and irony for me. Every Philly fan remembers how close they were to trading Iverson to Detroit 9 years ago, right before his MVP / Finals season. That didn't happen because of trade kickers and contract minutia, but everyone can think about what could have been. If I remember right, the Sixers would have gotten back Glen Rice and Eddie Jones, two good shooters... but without much time left. Rice was finished shortly after he won the first of the Shaq-Kobe titles, and Jones never regained his late 90's all-star form. Iverson came back and the Sixers made the finals, while the Pistons looked lost. GM Joe Dumars would have to work magic to get that team in shape. It seemed Philly had dodged a major bullet.

But did they? The next year, the Pistons looked a lot better, and the Sixers began to slip. In 2003, they met in the second round of the playoffs. Despite having the lead in most games, the Sixers had some rough late moments and lost in 6 games. Larry Brown then left - for Detroit - and the Sixers fell even further into a hole that resulted in them eventually trading Iverson away. Detroit won a title under Brown and came close to repeating.

When Detroit and Denver made that big deal, it was like things had come full circle. Chauncey Billups, signed as a forgotten free agent after the botched Iverson deal, had made himself into one of the top guards in the league. But he was always in Iverson's shadow for popularity, and the Pistons figured they could try something different after a few years of very good regular seasons but no Finals. It didn't work.

The personal irony for me is that I still thought Detroit would be a contender after the trade and I liked the combination of him and their players, especially Rasheed Wallace. I updated my season preview to say that I thought this was a good roster for him. Specifically, I liked him with 'Sheed. In my old columns, back in the mid part of the decade, I always rooted for the Sixers to acquire Rasheed Wallace. I thought he was the perfect complement to Iverson. He could shoot and had offensive moves, but didn't mind being a second option. He was great on defense. I figured the best complement to Iverson would be a big guy that could shoot, so they could run the pick and roll. The Sixers actually did try to do this with Derrick Coleman and Keith Van Horn, but those guys were awful on D. Just awful. 'Sheed played D hard and made open shots, and again, he was much happier than other guys deferring. He ran into trouble in Portland once he became the go-to guy there. He didn't want to carry a franchise. He was better in Detroit because the guards carried the offense. To top it off, 'Sheed is a Philly native.

So, as much as I don't care for the Pistons, I was a little happy to see that Iverson and 'Sheed would come together. I also liked their roster to fit Iverson's game. The Sixers did well to match Iverson with a taller point in Eric Snow, who could defend the big guards, and the Pistons had Stuckey as a big point guard who could also shoot threes. Tayshuan Prince was a shooter and defender. They had McDyess as another big man to make shots, and Amir Johnson for rebounding and D. It seemed like the best roster for his talents. I knew it would be tough to mix him and Richard Hamilton, who also likes to come off screens, but that was the only problem I foresaw.

Well, you know how it went. His scoring plummeted, he didn't fit into the system at all, and they basically dumped him. They were happy to get rid of him and get the cap space. It wasn't just Hamilton that clashed with him; no one seemed to like him being there. I really misread that. Looking back, I'm not sure anything I predicted about him was accurate. I don't know if anyone really could have succeeded with him. Melo scored with him around, and their numbers were both good, but they never really meshed. My reflection of his career is entirely different. I thought he was a certain hall-of-famer and franchise player. Now he's scrubbing for a lottery team that I have grown to hate.

I guess I don't know what to think of Iverson anymore.

NBA tales of trouble

2009-08-05T17:22:00.000-07:00

I've been quiet so far, even though I have much to say about the offseason. I'm holding my breath until everything is done, because there have been some bizarre things going on and I've changed my mind many times already. I will wait until I make final judgement.

In the meantime, I'd like to share a lighter excerpt to make these rough times better. One of my friends asked me about some of the biggest scandals to happen to NBA players, and I had to share some of my favorites.

The good doctor writes: What are the most famous examples of NBA guys getting in trouble? Something along the lines of Kobe Bryant accused of rape, or Magic Johnson getting HIV... what are the most famous incidents of notoriety?

Another friend replies: Those are the two most famous. There's also Michael Jordan getting secretly suspended from the NBA for gambling. There's the Kermit Washington punch. The Ron Artest melee. And I know Shawn Kemp had a lot of kids out of wedlock. Oh, I forget the exact details, but something happened with the NY Knicks and the stipclub called the "Gold Club", where basically wholesale prostitution was going on. I think Patrick Ewing was involved. Oh, and the Isaiah Thomas thing, but he was done his playing days when that happened.

Me: Well said. I had to give them my long list of faves....

HAHA, well sir, the Jordan thing has never been confirmed, but a lot of people (I'm guessing you got that from reading Simmons) think that's why he disappeared. You covered a lot of the big ones. There are a lot of rumors and old stories out there, but they aren't as famous. A lot of crazy shite went down in the late 70s and early 80s, when a lot of guys were on coke. The hidden story behind Magic getting AIDS is that he and a lot of other guys had some crazy sex parties and f----d a lot of girls. A LOT. Then there's stories like how Michael Ray Richardson threw away a great career cause of drugs. But those stories are kinda obscure.

There's a lot of stories behind our old pal Mr. Iverson. In high school, he was put in jail for a long time because he was at this fight in a bowling alley where some people got killed. Eventually, the governor of Virginia thought it was a harsh sentence and pardoned him, but some people believe that the reason they gave him a big sentence in the first place is because they were sure he killed a guy but they didn't have any proof. It was a big deal when he got a scholarship to Georgetown. He had a lot of smaller incidents in Philly, and this kid I know who used to work as a valet in Old City claimed that the reason he got shot at one time is because he never paid for anything when he went out to fancy restaurants and expected everyone to just give him stuff because he was the big star. I don't know if that's true or not.

My personal favorite is Isiah Rider (also known as J.R.), who was like a living version of the Chappelle Show's "When Keeping it Real Goes Bad" skit. Even after he got a huge contract, he kept getting in trouble for mischief on the mean streets of Oakland. One time he was arrested for a dice game that got violent. There were incidents all thorughout his career and he nearly ruined the Hawks franchise. But my favorite story of any NBA player is when he got arrested for smoking weed out of a soda can on a street corner. Dude was making ten million dollars a year - he could've gotten some fancy hydroponic waterbong system or something and done it in his house without anyone bothering him, but no, he's on the corner doing something that broke college freshmen MIGHT do if they're desperate. That's keeping it real.

His team in Portland was riveted with bad guys, hence the nickname Jail Blazers. One of them allegedly had another player call up his baby mama and give death threats. Ruben Patterson was arrested for sexual assault on his kid's nanny and had to register in every NBA city as a sex offender. That was fun. Qyntel Woods pulled a Michael Vick before Vick did, but his dog ring wasn't as extensive and he was a no name, so it didn't get nearly as much press.

The Knicks have had misery off the court to match the losses. Stephon Marbury was in trouble a few years ago for some kind of sexual thing known as the Truck Party, which included him either raping or assaulting some girl in a SUV. I don't know the details of that, but he's pretty much been declared insane now, so it's hard to take anything he says seriously. There was almost a juicy story involving Eddy Curry in that a man claimed to be his secret gay lover, and wanted to sue for sexual harassment, but there was no evidence and it died. That would have been huge, but nothing came of it.

I guess, though, the biggest story of the past 10 years, besides the Artest fight, is the Jayson Williams case. He had some good years with the Nets, got hurt, and then was a big studio host. One day he was showing off some antique guns he owned and accidentally shot a guy in the face. The guy died and allegedly he tried to cover it up. I don't know if this case has even been concluded yet, but he's been in and out of court for the past decade.

Griffin! Everyone else! It's the 2009 NBA Draft!

2009-06-25T06:37:00.000-07:00

What a glorious day it is. The annual draft is a big festival in my house and in some corners of the sports world. This year, though, it's a little unpredictable. And weak. I shouldn't be as excited because teams are selling picks and none of these guys are likely going to be stars, save for a few. But I am excited, as always, because this means a new crop of young ballers coming in and it's fascinating to see where people go.

I actually think this year's draft is useful for people who realize that it sucks. If that doesn't make sense, well, maybe I should say that it works if you go in with lowered expectations. Normally, you might expect to find a starter or a major contributor up until the midway point. Not this year. If you need a little bench help, however, and a lot of teams do, it's an effective place to find people. Especially point guards. Teams that were hoping to get the big prize (Blake Griffin) are just going to have to face the fact that they're not getting an impact player. They need to look at weak spots and depth issues, as opposed to major holes.

I usually go with my own mock of what will happen and my opinion on what should happen. I have no idea, so I'm just giving out advice this year. Yeah, I didn't follow college ball as closely as I have, but the elite group is small and I'm pretty sure I've seen them in action.

Here goes:

1. Clips - They will take Griffin and they should, although, if the Not Sonics wanted to offer Durant, I think that works out for both teams, pending on what the details are. If he's not going to stay, it makes sense for the Okies to get a local kid who will. And it solves what positions people play. But the easier thing to do for the Clippers is just to take Griffin and do anything they can to get Zach Randolph out of town. Or just pull a Steve Francis and cut him.

2. Grizzlebees - They are depressed because Griffin could have been the last piece to a nice young lineup and there are no big men who even come close after him. Oh well - they don't deserve it. Not after giving up on a rare franchise big guy for nothing when he was still young. They need to realize that no one here can save them, so they should just trade down and improve their bench. If they go down with Minnesota, they can pick up Jordan Hill, who will be a nice energy guy to use with Gasol and Arthur. They can also pick up backups on the wing and point with later selections. Haseem Thabeet would be a nice tandem with Gasol, but he doesn't add any offense and they still have a hole at PF. They should just go for depth now and hope that next year, they can get a decent big man.

3. Not Sonics - They could go in many directions, and none of them are bad. They could take Rubio if they aren't sure Westbrook is a real point guard. They can take Curry and maybe split it up. They can take Harden, which is easy enough. Or they could take Thabeet if he's available. I like Thabeet here because they don't have a true center or shot blocker; they have a lot of forwards. Harden would be just fine, but they might be able to find a decent shooter in free agency. I have a feeling that Rubio will be gone, or at least should be... if not, they could trade down with Minnesota too and get some more picks and still get a decent guard.

4. Kings - Rough times for Sacto. The Kings really need a point guard and someone who can revive interest and they're just on the outside of getting Rubio. They don't really have anything to trade up for, but they can hope he falls. I don't think he will. The Wolves are desperate now and have more assets to move ahead. That leaves them with the next few guys: Flynn, Evans, Curry. I don't know if Evans or Curry will be real point guards; I think they'll be good players but this team needs a true point. I like Flynn but this may be a little high. They are in a rough spot. I'd say Flynn with a gulp.

5 & 6. Wolves - It was a little weird for them to pick up two consecutive picks in a crummy draft, but they're not done. They can probably convince Memphis or OKC to trade so they can get Rubio. Originally, I thought they would target Thabeet to platoon with Love and to let him come off the bench, but they are now desperate for guards. Really desperate. If they can keep # 6 and get Rubio at 2 or 3, they'll be in good shape. The actual 5th pick then depends on the trading partner: OKC would take Harden or Curry, while Memphis would likely spring for Hill. That would leave the Wolves to pick up a two guard at # 6. The good news is that one of Curry, Harden, or Evans has to be available in this scenario. I like Harden the best out of those guys, then Curry, then Evans.

Here is my advised top 6: Griffin, Rubio (to MIN), Thabeet, Flynn, Hill (to MEM), Harden.

7. Warriors - It seemed like they were taking a point, and that's smart. Even though it looks like they are trading Crawford for Law and Claxton now, those guys haven't done much. They will likely choose amongst whomever is left between Flynn, Evans, Curry, and Jennings. I like Flynn, although he could be gone. I think this is a decent place for Evans - he's not really a point, but neither is Monta Ellis, so maybe it will work. Curry might be too much like Ellis. Jennings is a strong possibility and I would see that. I don't think they'll go for a big guy unless he's an outside shooter type, and there aren't any here.

8. Knicks - I have a feeling that some way, they're going to steal Curry and piss everyone off. In my advised projections, he's still here. This is a great fit for him - he doesn't have to worry about defense, they can play him at the two and work him in, and D'Antoni will make sure he gets shots. I just think it happens. If he's gone, they may look at Flynn, Jennings, Holiday, or Teague. I don't know if they will be as happy with any of those guys besides Flynn. Some are saying they like Hill, but is he that different than David Lee?

9. Raptors - They needed wings before they traded Kapono, and they really need them now. I actually think they'll try to get Marion to come back at a reduced rate if no one offers him much and can do it, but even then, they need more depth. Evans would be nice if he was here, but I doubt it. They will likely choose between DeRozan and Clark, maybe Henderson. DeRozan has some skills and maybe the most potential. He's a decent choice here. They don't have any two guards, so he can get time right away.

10. Bucks - I know Simmons laid out the awful history of the Clippers and their penchant for drafting too many forwards. Well, I'd like to present a much smaller history of the Bucks, with special attention paid to point guards. Consider how few teams have been managed as poorly over the past decade:

2003: Having just traded Ray Allen for Gary Payton, the Bucks decide to let Payton walk, giving them... not much. They also decide to let Sam Cassell go for not much, and he helps Minnesota have its best season ever. After giving up on two all-star point guards, they have to draft T.J. Ford.

2004: Ford turns out to be decent, leading the Bucks to a surprise playoff appearance.

2005: Ford also turns out to be injury prone, as he misses most of the season. The Bucks miss the playoffs, but they win the lottery. Despite his injury woes, the Bucks remain committed to Ford as their leader and pass on Chris Paul and Deron Williams with their pick.

2006: Even though Ford comes back and they make the playoffs again, they suspend their commitment to him JUST A YEAR AFTER PASSING UP CHRIS PAUL TO KEEP FORD when they trade him to Toronto for Charlie Villanueva. They like how backup Mo Williams handles himself, even though he's more of a scorer.

2007: The Bucks miss the playoffs by a wide margin. Despite this turn, they decide to re-sign Mo Williams to a sizable contract, even though Miami really wants him to complement Wade. They also re-sign Charlie Bell when Miami tries to get him, even though he doesn't start. Then the Bucks draft Yi Jianlian, and for all the things you've heard about him and/or can make fun of him for, I just want to focus on this: he plays the same style and position as Villanueva. They need a small forward, but they pass on Julian Wright, Al Thornton, Thad Young, and others to get Yi.

2008: The Bucks still suck, but they finally seem to realize that Yi doesn't fit, several months after I (and many people) have been complaining about it. They make a decent trade to get Richard Jefferson from New Jersey for Yi and Bobby Simmons' horrible contract. I did mention his horrible contract, right? No? How about Dan Gadzuric? No? Silly me. I got so caught up in the point guard revolving door, I must've forgot.

So, despite picking up Jefferson, the Bucks still draft a small forward in Joe Alexander. They could have used a bruising big guy to take pressure off of soft bigs Villanueva and Bogut, but whatever. It's not the worst move they've made.

Finally, several months after signing him to a big contract and apparently committing to him as their point guard of the future, the Bucks dump Mo Williams for basically nothing. Actually, nothing would be the ideal. They take back Luke Ridnour's salary, even though the trade is supposed to free up time for late steal Ramon Sessions.

2009: The Bucks start the season by giving Ridnour time ahead of Sessions. Strange. They still lose.

The Bucks finish the season by trading Jefferson for salary dumps. They claim that they need the money to keep Villanueva and/or Sessions. So yes, they used up that 2007 # 6 pick for NOTHING, essentially. And they hurt their chances for keeping Sessions by taking on Ridnour and playing him, even though they didn't need him in that Mo trade, and didn't pick up anything in that trade, despite them having the only important player in that trade. WHY DIDN'T THEY PICK UP AN EXPIRING CONTRACT OR A YOUNG PLAYER OR JUST NEVER FREAKING RESIGN MO WILLIAMS IN THE FIRST PLACE???

This team has been going in a strange cycle of suck and it hasn't stopped. Do they even have any fans left? If so, why???

I'm guessing they will take another point guard this year. They have to, just to keep this comedy of errors going. Even if they think that they can bring Sessions back now (which was the decent move all along), they'd like to be safe. They can never settle. I would advise them to stop existing altogether, but I suppose the answer here is taking Flynn, Jennings, Holiday, or Teague, in that order. They like Teague, I hear. Of course they do.

11. Nets - They really need a wing. They had a laughable trio of washups at the 3 last year, presumably because they are holding it open for LeBron. Well, it might help to get someone anyway, and they can always trade or move Vince. I like Earl Clark, but Gerald Henderson is fine here too. If DeRozan slips this far, he'd be a solid pick.

12. Bobcats - They need a two guard, preferably one who can shoot. Henderson seems like an easy choice. DeRozan again, if he slips, is good. I hear they like Terrence Williams, but he's a little unpredictable.

13. Pacers - They need a power forward who can play and score inside, and there aren't many this year. James Johnson is more of a tweener, and this is too high for Hansbrough (and please, Larry Legend, they have enough white guys). DeJuan Blair would be an easy pick if they weren't scared about injury problems, but honestly, who else can they go with? He's what they need. I hear they like point guards, but they already have a bunch.

14. Suns - They just traded Shaq and have been linked to a lot of guys at this spot. They haven't had a real backup for Nash these past few years and it's hurting him. He might be gone soon, too. This is the draft to get young points, so why won't they? They have wings and a few bigs, and they could play small. It depends on who is still around. I think Flynn will be gone. Jennings could be a bust but has talent. Holiday is raw but has potential. Maynor is solid all around but unspectacular. Teague is nice but maybe not a real point. Lawson is solid but probably more of a backup. I'd say Jennings if he's there, then Holiday, then Maynor.

That concludes a weird lottery....

15. Pistons - They haven't had a true 7 footer since... well, Darko, but an effective true center? Years ago. They are rebuilding, and even though I think they will do the most in free agency and try to win soon, they should think about B.J. Mullens. They have undersized forwards and they can pick up more of those, but he could develop if they use him right.

16. Bulls - They could use a big man who can score, although that's rare in this draft. I like James Johnson here - he's a tweener, but he would only need to come off the bench and he can shoot. If Blair slips this far, they ought to snatch him up.

17. Sixers - First of all, I would like to say thank you to the hometowners for bringing back the old logo and the red, white, and blue color scheme. I always thought of it as the real logo. A team in Philly representing something patriotic really should stick with our national colors, right? The unis ever since they got rid of Barkley have been a mess.

I'm guessing that the Kapono trade means that they are not going for shooters. They could use a point, especially if Andre Miller leaves, and for the future. I like Maynor and Lawson and would be happy with either. Jennings if he slips, and Teague are possibilities.

18. Wolves - I'm expecting this pick to be traded. Memphis might go for Budinger or another wing here. OKC would go for whatever they didn't get earlier - a big guy or a shooter.

19. Hawks - Even though they picked up Crawford, they may want a guard. I don't know if they bring Bibby back, plus there aren't any big guys left here who can help them. Teague is a nice pick because he can shoot and they need that. Lawson and Maynor would be fine.

20. Jazz - Please, please don't pick Hansbrough. You have enough white stiffs in your history. Even if Boozer leaves, they can use Millsap and Kirilenko at the four with better results. I'm thinking a three would help better - Kirilenko and Korver do well off the bench or at other positions, Harpring is getting old, and that's the spot they need. A good shooter like Budinger or Daye would work. Daye could be like a young Rashard Lewis for them.

21. Hornets - They need big man depth, but that's about gone at this point. Instead, they might as well just get a backup point because there won't be much else left. They did well when CP had another point guard who could shoot with him. Teague and Lawson would be decent picks here.

22. Blazers - They traded up for two spots. Why? I don't know. They like to move. I think this is where Hansbrough should go, and it fits him well. He can board and bring energy off the bench to relieve Aldridge. They don't want more projects, and he's ready to play.

23. Kings - They will certainly use their first pick on a point, so here is a chance to get some big man depth. Too bad it's almost gone. They can take a crack at Hansbrough if he's available, but I doubt it. They might have to swing for Taj Gibson or Jeff Pendergraph.

24. Mavericks - They would like a big guy, too, but there won't be much to be had here. No, they can go to free agency for that. I think they should consider a point to serve under Kidd, because Barea and Terry are more shooters. If Terrence Williams slips this far, it would be great. He could learn under Kidd and not have so much pressure. Same for Holiday. Maynor or Lawson would be fine, but I think all of these guys could be gone. That might leave them with Nick Calathes, who is going to Greece but could be a nice prospect down the road. Otherwise, they could take another wing for depth. Sam Young, Derrick Brown, Ellington could fit.

25. Not Sonics - see 18. They could get Ellington here and that might solve some shooting issues. Or they could take another foreign guy to add to their stable.

26. Bulls - With their second pick, the Bulls can do more for their depth. I'm interested to see what they do over the summer, and they might have to prepare for that now. If they try to keep Gordon, they they probably have to move Hinrich. A backup point would be nice here then. If they don't keep Gordon, a backup wing like Ellington would fit. I didn't expect them to keep Gordon at the beginning of the season and they can really just give his minutes to Hinrich and Salmons. But then what about Deng? Is he okay? A lot of questions here. They should take a guard to be safe.

27. Grizz - Again, they need depth. Any wings or points left over would be a nice break for them. Young, Brown, Summers are all decent here. If the major points are gone, maybe they consider Darren Collison or Patrick Mills.

28. Wolves - This pick might be traded or not. The Wolves would probably go for a wing if they keep it. Young is good. DaJuan Summers is a poss, as is Omri Cassipi, or Ellington for some depth.

29. Lakers - It sounds like they're trading this. I would personally take a shot at Toney Douglas. He's not a point guard but they don't need him to be, and he was a good scorer/shooter.

30. Cavs - They made the splash with Shaq but the Orlando series proved they have many holes. They could use a big man who can shoot from outside, or maybe another small forward who can do that and defend to play next to LeBron. There isn't anyone special left here, but they might take a look at some of these wings.

Well, that's it. I have no idea if they will think like me or not. Probably not, I am always horrendously confused... and that's what makes this day so great.

A new direction

2009-06-10T05:01:00.000-07:00

The Sixers' trade of Reggie Evans for Jason Kapono looks pretty simple, straight up: they traded a guy who can't shoot for a guy who can shoot threes. They dumped a big guy for a wing because they needed shooting and they have big guys with Elton Brand and Jason Smith coming back.

I had to notice, however, that this is the first move since they hired Eddie Jordan. It might not seem like a big coaching change, but it gives me hope. I wasn't initially with all their coaching moves this year. I thought they gave up on Maurice Cheeks too early and that their early season slump wasn't really his fault; they just couldn't build an offense around Brand (who was still hurt). His firing coincided with them playing small and fast, and they won more in the second half. Jordan, however, was also probably fired too quickly. Washington sucked, but they were destroyed by injuries. Jordan took a team of offensive (well, selfish) minded players with a few defenders (with no offense) and made them into a regular playoff team. He knew how to run an offense with limited guys. In the end, these were two coaches who deserved better, so maybe it all works out.

I do know that Jordan might have good ideas for the offense. He's talked about moving Brand around, doing more with him and Iguodala, and trying to get more of a rhythm going. This trade allows them to (hopefully) move people back to good spots. The Sixers did well by going small and running the past two years, but that will only get them so far. As I've said before, it's nice but it has limits, and that's why they needed Brand. Now, they could potentially start Kapono or Thad at the 3, move Iggy to the 2, move Green to the bench (please), and then go smaller on the SECOND unit, instead of the first. They have the hustle and speed that's good for the bench, but they've been using it too much. The starting unit has to be bigger and better offensively. It seems like they are moving that way.

I'm hopeful then that Jordan can figure out some things. Next up is the draft. It's not deep, but there are a lot of point guards available, and the Sixers can grab someone nice to eventually replace Andre Miller... or now, if he leaves. If they get a guy who can shoot (I like Ty Lawson), that adds to the new direction. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.

WOW... a defense of the big SB

2009-06-05T20:13:00.000-07:00

Oh wow. This is too good. A man got a link on Simmons by trying to argue with him that Shawn Bradley was good. As the writer of a blog named after SB, you knew I couldn't resist.

In short, all I can say is .... SHAWN BRADLEY WAS TERRIBLE! I WATCHED HIM FOR YEARS! Yes, he had moments, and he blocked a few shots, but he was a huge bust. There is a legitimate reason we like to make fun of him.

Here's the post:

http://mormonhusbands.blogspot.com/2009/06/defending-shawn-bradley-swatting-bill.html

Here's my response, in case he took it down (it's clean, and civil, but I did go on for a while):

"Don't get me wrong, sir: Shawn Bradley was a cool guy, and always fun, so much so that I named my own hoops blog after him. But he was an awful, awful player. You can crunch numbers all you want, but if you ever watched him play for the Sixers, he was dreadful.

I like that someone has the chutzpah for defending him, and I'll admit that his numbers don't look so bad compared to other guys. Blocked shots on their own, however, are a pretty meaningless statistic. Lots of tall guys have them but it's not as important as good post defense, which requires some strength and quickness, which he didn't have. Marcus Camby might not have any offense and gets a lot of empty blocks, but he also rebounds well and is about a million times quicker. SB got muscled around and scored on far more often than he blocked shots. I saw it. It was not pretty.

Example: When the Pistons won the title, Ben Wallace got a lot of credit for blocking shots, but it was Rasheed's man defense that allowed him to do that. That's the kind of defense you want, not just blocks. Yes, SB never played with another good defensive big guy, who might have helped him block shots, so that's rough for him, but it doesn't take away the fact that he was NOT a good defender.

His rebound numbers surprised me, but that's a bit of a misnomer as well. Other guys like Smits and Illgauskas were primarily jump shooters who played away from the basket. Divac and Sabonis did that as well, plus they played on loaded teams where their passing ability was key. SB never had a good midrange jumper or any passing ability. He just hung around the post, or tried to, as people pushed him around. Any big guy who plays a lot of minutes can average a decent amount of rebounds. Even Kwame averaged about that many boards a game when the Wizards were trying to develop him and gave him time. To borrow a common line from Simmons, Jermaine O'Neal averaged about that this year and he's pretty much dead. I'd be more interested to see his rebounds-per-minute average.

Look, the guy had a raw deal, for sure. Those Sixers teams were beyond terrible and the front office had no idea what it was doing. I think he eased up a little after he got out of town, and didn't have all the pressure. I also think Dallas figured out the right way to use him, as a role player who wasn't needed for much besides blocking shots. If you want to say that he was good early on his career, however, I'm sorry. I watched those teams. As bad as they were, he wasn't the solution. He was one of the nicest guys to ever play here, and I always root for him, but there's a reason he's the butt of those jokes."

The end.

This is an example of how numbers can really skew things. Statistically, he appears to be a decent center. And for a while, there weren't a ton of great centers and people continued to try to go big even when they didn't have talented big guys. But please, please, please do not try to put him in a class with Marcus Camby or Rik Smits or Zydrunas Illgauskas. Camby is skinny but he doesn't get pushed around, plus he's very quick. He rebounds extremely well. Smits and Illgauskas had offensive skills. SB had NOTHING offensively. NOTHING.

I don't get how people can look at this and say he was a decent defender. He blocked some shots. So did every 7'4" or over guy. It doesn't count for his atrocious man defense, because he got pushed around and had no lateral quickness. You have to be strong in the post. He might block Shaq 3 times in a game, but then Shaq would easily dunk on him 12 times. I saw a game at the ol' Spectrum against Orlando in the Shaq-Penny days. Shaq tossed him around like a rag doll. He did that to a lot of people back then, but that was a routine for SB. If he had another good post defender, he might have found a niche blocking shots (like he did later in his career). Sadly, he had undersized Clarence Weatherspoon, a score-first guy and bad defender, next to him.

(Also, no one outside of Philly remembers this, but Sharone Wright, the guy they drafted the year after Bradley, was even worse. He did nothing and was out of the league in 4 years. He looked like he might be a physical post presence, but no dice.)

well this is unplanned

2009-06-04T01:50:00.001-07:00

Orlando.

Seriously.

That was one of the more intriguing playoff series in a while. I did not see it coming. The Magic took down the Cavs right away and didn't let go. They are dependant on shooting (a usual killer at some point) but they haven't been cold yet. They struggled with the Sixers in the first round and yet managed to embarrass Cleveland. HOW DOES THAT WORK??

I'm confused. Looking at their series vs. how the Lakers struggled against Houston and Denver, it seems that Orlando is in a good spot. I said before the season that Andrew Bynum was the key, but the Lakers have done a lot without him. He might be useful in this series, if he can push Howard a bit, but he hasn't shown much lately. It seems the Lakers wouldn't be so unfazed by Orlando's small lineup, because they can just use Odom, but the Cavs mysteriously failed to do the same thing with LeBron.

Jameer Nelson's pending return might be key. The Lakers struggle with quick scoring point guards. They have for years. If he's even decent, that could be a problem. Even Rafer Alston could take advantage of these guys.

Where to go? I think the Lakers have more of a sense of urgency. I also think that Phil Jackson is smart enough to make sure that they don't double team too much and leave shooters open like other teams did against Orlando. I know Kobe is angry over what happened last year and knows that, even though his team is fairly young, he may not have more chances. But I also know that a team that got beat up down low last year is going to struggle with Howard. Pietrus can give Kobe trouble, and Nelson could terrorize them.

I guess I'm going with the Lakers in a high-scoring series. I want to pick against them, but I just don't see Orlando pulling more tricks out. Lakers in 7.

And on a side note...

I feel good for the Clippers, even though most people have given up on them. I just hope there's a way they can get new management. Would it be terrible if someone overtook them like a South American country? Guerilla style? Eventually, Donald Sterling has to do something that lands him in jail, right? This is a talented team. It really is. I have a feeling that the commissioner will realize that, in this time of economic woe, he has the potential for two successful franchises in LA and some cash to be made. If he doesn't, he's missing out. I am crossing my fingers that someone will realize that it needs to end now.

I also hope that the Kings capitalize on Memphis' stupidity and move up to take Ricky Rubio. They really need him. They're in awful shape and he's the only guy outside of Griffin who can revive interest in this draft.

playoff update

2009-05-03T12:27:00.000-07:00

I really didn't know how these playoffs would go down, and so far, they've been just as unpredictable - in parts. I did not know what to make of the west's bottom half, and I was way off. Nothing much has changed. My only new predicition is that the Nuggets will outlast the Mavericks in 7. They're playing great. They will not, however, be able to challenge the Lakers, who will win in 5. In the east, not much has changed. Even though the Hawks won, I doubt they'll be able to steal more than one game from the Cavs. The rest is as I said it.

Playoff Predictions oh nine

2009-04-17T23:21:00.000-07:00

The playoffs just got interesting and less interesting. There are a ton of ways for this all to play out, but it the end, it won't matter, because the finals are set: Lakers - Cavs. Only a few catastrophic injuries could stop this from happening. The injuries that have already happened have made a pretty clear pick even easier: Garnett is done, Ginboli is done, and Orlando's forwards are hurting. It was looking like Lakers-Cavs before this, and now, it's obvious. But the rest of the bracket will be fun. And I'm not sure who wins.

EAST PLAYOFFS
1. Cleveland vs. 8. Detroit

Hard to believe the Pistons have slipped this much, but they have. Maybe not having Iverson helps them. They won't get close, but they have to have some pride left.

CAVS in 6

4. Atlanta vs. 5. Miami

Atlanta's reward for improving and landing home court? A dangerous Miami team. Atlanta has been good and proved me right for believing they wouldn't slip this year, but Wade is too much. He's carried this team over bigger obstacles.

HEAT in 7

3. Orlando vs. 6. Philly

No one wants to watch this series. The Sixers haven't been that amazing in the past few weeks, but nobody challenged. Orlando is hurt but managed to avoid a team that could exploit that. Even if Thad Young comes back, I have little faith in the hometowners. Oh well. They're still learning.

MAGIC in 5

2. Boston vs. 7. Chicago

Boston is reeling from the loss of KG. Chicago has come on really strong. An upset would seem possible, except that Chicago doesn't have the big guys to exploit KG's absence. The Bulls are strong on the perimeter, but the Celtics are better and more experienced there. It might be close, but the defending champs have enough heart.

CELTICS in 6

second round

Cleveland vs. Miami

Wade really should get the chance to face LeBron, shouldn't he? I can see it. Too bad LeBron is a little better and has more help.

CAVS in 6

Boston vs. Orlando

I've debated whether or not Orlando is ready to be a contender. They have a chance with Boston and Philly struggling. I have to think Howard is going to dominate without KG, but what about everyone else? I can see Orlando doing it, but I can also see them falling apart. I like the Celts' moxie.

CELTICS in 7

conf finals

Cleveland vs. Boston

Sadly, the grit of the champs ends here. Even if Boston had a healthy KG, they'd be in trouble. They could use James Posey right now, too. They have no way to hold LeBron all series and they barely did it last year with a full roster. Meanwhile, Cleveland has grown a lot.

CAVS in 5

WEST PLAYOFFS
1. Los Angeles vs. 8. Utah

Utah was supposed to be one of the teams that could challenge the Lakers, but they've fallen apart. They still seem like a tough matchup, and could push the Lakers harder than they would expect in the first round, but there's a reason why they didn't win 50.

LAKERS in 6

4. Portland vs. 5. Houston

I'm distraught. These are two of the best teams in the west and neither of them can go to the conference finals.... unless they beat the Lakers. Some think the Blazers could do that if everything falls into place, but they have to get past the Rockets first. I like Houston just for the desperation/ experience factor. They have to win it, don't they? Portland is young, but with the way they played the last month, I can see them winning this and winning it easy. I will take Houston shakily.

ROCKETS in 7

3. San Antonio vs. 6. Dallas

The bottom half of the Western bracket is really unpredictable. The Spurs seemed like the second best team in the conference and the only guys who could even think of taking on the Lakers. But then Manu was declared out for good, and they've uncharacteristically struggled down the stretch. Dallas has been okay but not great all season. I still think the Spurs have one more stand in them.

SPURS in 7

2. Denver vs. 7. New Orleans

I did not see Denver improving this year, much less getting the # 2 seed. They've done great, but have a lot to prove in the playoffs. They got a rough matchup with the Hornets, who might just be the most dangerous low seed. They've had injuries, but it looks like Peja and Chandler will at least be in the lineup. That scares me more than anything the Nuggs can do.

HORNETS in 7

second round

Lakers vs. Rockets

If the Blazers don't make it, the Lakers will cruise. Even if they did, the Lakers should win. the Rockets have no answer.

LAKERS in 5

Spurs vs. Hornets

The Hornets impressed many last year by taking the Spurs to 7 games. This year, they are hurt, but so are the Spurs. If the Mavs and Hornets win, well, we know the Hornets killed them last year. I think the Hornets can do it again if healthy.

HORNETS in 7

conf finals

Lakers vs. Hornets

I really don't know who is going to face the Lakers in the conference finals. It could be any of those 4 teams - Spurs, Nuggets, Mavs, or Hornets. I would say Spurs if they were healthy, but they're not. The Hornets have the most potential. It doesn't matter, though. None of them are taking the Lakers past 6 games.

LAKERS in 5

THE 2009 NBA FINALS

In a rough season for the league, with teams failing economically and tickets available, one dream matchup is almost certainly going to take place: LeBron-Kobe. Yes, there are many more players involved, but this is a superstar marquee battle that everyone craves. Kobe has more talent surrounding him and more size. LeBron has a better defense and some guards that could hurt LA. Cleveland will hurt people by going small with LeBron at a power spot, but the Lakers might be able to counter with Lamar Odom. If the Lakers want to go big, they may break out Odom, Bynum, and Gasol at the same time. They also have a nice perimeter defender specialist in Trevor Ariza. The Cavs can shoot, though, and they have been great at home, which they will have.

I've debated the outcome of this series many times, and I will do so again in the next month. Right now, I give a small edge to the Lakers, given that they have Bynum back and a little more experience. But I'll be rooting for the Cavs. Cleveland has suffered enough. Maybe my kiss of death will work. Last playoffs I really thought it would be Suns-Pistons.... uggggggggghhh.

Lakers in 6.

AWARDS 09

2009-04-15T05:27:00.000-07:00

Awards for the end of the season:

MVP
1. LeBron James
2. Dwyane Wade
3. Kobe Bryant
No one else is really close to these three. LeBron wins because he has taken a mediocre squad to 65 plus wins. Sure, his stats are redic, but he's also claimed the title of best player. Wade is second for getting a crummy team to the playoffs by himself. You can argue that Kobe is the top dog still, if not the best man on the best team.... but Kobe has the most talent surrounding him, and his main task is just to score. Wade and LB have to do EVERYTHING for their teams.

DEFENSE
1. Dwight Howard
2. Shane Battier
3. D Wade
Howard is an easy choice. He dominates the paint and glass. Note that Wade is coming on here.

ROOKIE
1. Derrick Rose
2. O.J. Mayo
3. Russell Westbrook
4. Brook Lopez
5. Eric Gordon

This is a very solid rookie class. I predicted Mayo could win it because he would have the best chance of averaging nearly 20 a game. Well, he almost did that, but Rose has been spectacular. He scored more than I thought, and he handled the starting job well. Despite a lot of early turmoil in Chicago, they are going to the playoffs. That's worth a lot. Mayo and Westbrook did great for their teams, and Lopez may be a franchise center. Gordon, Marc Gasol, D.J. Augustin, Kevin Love, and Michael Beasley also put up some good numbers, and Rudy Fernandez and Mario Chalmers are getting minutes for playoff teams. The only maybe disappointment for rookies is Greg Oden, but he's had to deal with injuries and high expectations. He's still a valuable part of a Portland team that won 50 games.

COACH
1. Mike Brown, CLE
2. Stan Van Gundy, ORL
3. Nate McMillan, POR
4. George Karl, DEN
5. Rick Adelman, HOU

Brown gets credit for getting LeBron to play defense, while figuring out a way to use him on offense to carry a mediocre unit. He has an undersized back court and two old guys down low, but this team still led the league in points allowed. I like what Van Gundy has done in Orlando, building an up-tempo game around Howard. McMillan won 50 games quicker than I thought he would. Karl was very impressive in making Denver better despite losing Marcus Camby for nothing. Adelman has surived in Houston despite injuries, but needs a playoff win to get noticed.

6th MAN
1. Jason Terry
2. Andrei Kirilenko
3. Lamar Odom
4. Anderson Varejao

Terry wins big as a sub who averaged nearly 20 a game. He also made the Jason Kidd deal look better, as he fits well next to the real point. Kirilenko showed some life with the second unit. Odom might have won this if Andrew Bynum didn't get hurt, making him a starter. Varejao started a lot of games for Cleveland, too, but has really been key to their defense.

MOST IMPROVED
1. Jameer Nelson
2. Danny Granger
3. Nate Robinson
4. Ramon Sessions
5. Wilson Chandler

Nelson wins, despite missing a large chunk of the season. I wasn't sure if he was a starter or should come off the bench, and Orlando was rated very low at point guard, but he worked his way into the all-star game. Granger went from solid player to all-star. Robinson and Chandler thrived in the Knicks' new system, changing them from afterthoughts to key cornerstones. Sessions inexplicably had a hard time getting minutes in Milwaukee before he showed he could be a capable starter.

ALL NBA: LeBron, D Howard, Wade, Kobe, Chris Paul

2ND: Garnett, Duncan, Nowitzki, Pierce, B Roy

3RD: Ming, Billups, Carmelo, T Parker, Bosh

ALL ROOKIE: Rose, B Lopez, Westbrook, Mayo, Gordon

R 2ND: Love, M Gasol, Beasley, Augustin, Chalmers

HM: Fernandez, J Thompson, Oden, C Lee

ALL DEF: D Howard, Garnett, Battier, Wade, Rondo

D 2ND: Varejao, LeBron, Duncan, Artest, C Paul

brackets 09

2009-03-18T06:33:00.000-07:00

In a saddened state for the pro game, the college game remains strong, because you can't pay the players.... right?

[insert early 90's UNLV joke]

I haven't paid much attention this year, so I am not entering any real (i.e. paid) bracket pools. Not that I ever did.... cough.... but I'm not this year because I didn't study enough, and when I did recently, I found that I liked zero teams to win it all.

That's right, zero.

Usually, there a few teams that feel good, or at least one or two obvious favorites, even if you know they'll probably fail. This year, I have an overwhelming sense of meh about all the big teams. In my previous March Madness columns, I've listed a bunch of rules for eliminating teams. They've been pretty good for me over the years. Eventually, though, the process of elimination only goes so far and you have to pick teams you actually like. This year, I really don't like anyone.

UNC and UConn are big name picks, but they both have key people missing and I wonder about their depth. Pitt always falls apart in the tourney because they don't have shooting. Duke relies too much on shooting and doesn't have enough inside help, which has hurt them for the past 4 years. Michigan State is unimpressive. Kansas and Memphis did surprisingly well considering all the people they lost, but it's hard to make big runs twice with that many changes. Louisville is playing well, but I didn't really hear much about them during the season until they suddenly won the Big East tourney and got a # 1 seed. I watched them to get a view on draft prospect Earl Clark, and nothing really stood out. Oklahoma is intriguing, although I hate to go with a team led by underclassmen, although it doesn't really matter anymore. But they seem too obvious? Maybe?

Those are the top 9 teams in the country, and I have problems with all of them. Someone has to win, but I don't know who. There are some teams in the next range whom I like for upsets - Villanova, Washington, Wake Forest, Arizona State, Missouri, maybe UCLA. I don't like Gonzaga, despite their record. I also think that one of the many Big East teams that isn't getting hype - Nova, Marquette, West Virginia - will go farther than some of the others, like in '96.

My instinctive final four was Washington, Louisville, UNC, and Villanova. Other times, I went with all four # 1 seeds (never would've before last year, but the barrier has been broken). Oklahoma is tempting, but UNC has always been dependable to at least make it to the final four. My trouble bracket this year is Louisville's - I don't feel good about them, Michigan State, or Kansas. Wake Forest could pull it off but they could lose early too.

As for the finals? UNC-Lousiville or UNC-UConn will be popular choices. I said UNC over UW. But I don't trust anyone.

suck.

2009-03-01T06:07:00.000-08:00

I usually go through and post a lengthy review on what trades should have been made and what I think of the ones that were, but it's too depressing this year. No one wants to spend money. Teams passed up easy chances to get better just to save some bucks. Even the big spenders like Portland refused ridiculously one-sided deals in the name of cash.

I really do not like where this season is going. Maybe this is cosmic justice for pro sports, but I'd rather see people win and try to make it look like they care, and then complain later.

The Bulls did nice, I guess. They can probably claim the 8th spot in the east. At least the Hornets didn't horrendously dump Tyson Chandler for nothing (on a default), but there's still time this summer. Alas.

Seriously, it's impossible for me to use the trade machine and get excited about any possibility because I know none of these great trades are realistic. There were a number of contenders that could have used just one more piece and didn't go for it. A few of them have since signed waived guys on the cheap, which is smart, but not likely causing a major shift. Mostly, though, every owner in the league, even the ones with a chance, has turned into Robert Sarver. This is NOT a good thing.

So I can't really write much of a trade posting this year, and it sucks.

all star picks 09

2009-01-24T14:27:00.000-08:00

The starters were announced, and somehow, Tracy McGrady and Yi disappeared. But that's good. I don't have any major objections. I carefully went through and there weren't any starters I wouldn't have picked at all. Iverson is a little questionable, but he's the best bet on a Pistons team that ought to have someone. I can't say no to him.

My west starters: Kobe, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Duncan, Nowitzki

Bench: Yao, Amare, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Melo, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash

Chauncey Billups and David West were kinda tough omissions. In fact, I could change my mind on Nash (not that great this year, but I feel for him) over Billups. If Melo can't play, they should ensure that Billups makes it in. Al Jefferson and Kevin Durant have great numbers, and would be easy picks in the east, but their teams are too bad.

My east starters: Garnett, LeBron, Dwight Howard, Devin Harris, Wade

Bench: Danny Granger, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh, Iverson, Joe Johnson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis

I hated putting in Carter and Lewis, but I couldn't find anyone better. There are no big guys who really deserve it. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler are doing good, but they are hard to differentiate, and the Wizards are terrible. Al Harrington and David Lee put up surprisingly good numbers, but the Knicks and their system may inflate them. Michael Redd, Ben Gordon, Ray Allen.... meh... decent scorers but that's all. I would like to see Derrick Rose, but he just doesn't have enough yet. This is not an inspiring team outside the top eight or nine guys.

Not as important, but always fascinating to me, is the rookie - sophomore challenge. I don't know how to grade sophomores so easily, but rookies are interesting. There are some good stories this year.

ROOKIES - starters - Derrick Rose, O. J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, Michael Beasley, Brook Lopez

Bench - D. J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love

almost - Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jason Thompson

SOPHS - starters - Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Jeff Green, Rodney Stuckey, Al Thornton

Bench - Thad Young, Spencer Hawes, Wilson Chandler, Daequan Cook, Mike Conley

almost - Yi, Marco Bellinelli

holiday revue

2008-12-29T03:58:00.000-08:00

As the holidays continue, I discovered that I had not wrote anything in a while, despite some juicy trades and the disappointing start of the Sixers. I don't like to really get into the season until January, or at least, in with my usual super intensity, but several things have already been determined:

1. The Celtics and Lakers will be awesome again.
2. The Cavs are excellent. But LeBron is making everyone in Cleveland nervous... or is he?
3. Much like last year, there are 9 good teams in the West and one of them will be left out. Then there are 6 who are young and building.... and have no shot.
4. Knick fans are more alive than they've been in years.

Let's go through the big changes. I'm disappointed in the Sixers, obviously, but I really hated to see Coach Mo go. He's classy and he got them to play a lot harder, and much better than expected, the last two years. I really thought they could give him more time. They look out of sync, but they're still in it, and I didn't think they would be super great this year. They need time to jell and to figure out where young guys fit in. They need another shooter on the outside, too. This was a quick pulling of the plug on a guy who got some votes for top coach last year.

As sad as I am to see of the great Sixers go, I'm pulling for another Leo, or at least a DiLeo. He might have some luck by changing things. The big problem is offense. I figured Brand and Iggy would both be able to get 20 a game, as they had been before, but no one is above 16 right now. Last year, I thought they really needed a post scorer / big man shooter to anchor that run-heavy offense, and Brand seemed to fit perfectly, but now it doesn't always look that way. I suppose they were best at being scrappy and going with a small offense with Thad at PF.... but then, where would that leave them in the long run? They were better than I thought they'd be last year, but I didn't see a terrific future without that big man. Now it's hard to tell where exactly they should be going.

Thankfully, they're not out of it, and there are only really 4 teams to be sure playoff faves in the East, although I do like Atlanta (feeling a little vindicated after everyone else said the Hawks would slip). But still, there's tons of room for them to get in without anyone looking great in the last few spots. I'm keeping my hopes up. Thad came out strong, which was good. Speights has shown some offense in a limited amount of time. They really, really need outside shooting. I don't wish the Korver trade reversed, but they do need to find a wing or guard who can shoot like that.

As for trades, the Knicks' revamping shouldn't have been surprising, but after they started well, it was a little odd to see them give up on that so quick. But they saw a way to get better for the future, and in the short term, Al Harrington fits their system nicely. They're really hoping for good draft picks and free agents in the coming years. Which might happen now....

On the other side of the country, the Clips haven't shown much life. Fortunately, unlike the bad Clippers of yesterday, they do have some talent. Their starters look great on paper, but this team has no chemistry or depth. I continue to hope that they trade Kaman for some help and then dump Dunleavy or at least get him to play a more freewheeling style. Zandolph was surprisingly good in D'Antoni's fast system, and everyone else seems to be suited for a quick pace. This can still work, even if Baron Davis is pulling a GOB Bluth and telling everyone he made a horrible mistake.

And up north, Golden State continues to mystify with how many wings Nellie can acquire and then throw out on the floor. Or not. Anthony Morrow exploded and then vanished just as quick, Bellinelli finally showed up in a real game, and then Jamal Crawford arrived as another two guard who will shoot at any time. Meanwhile, there are no inside scorers or true points. Nice. Even if they can fit Crawford and Monta Ellis together when he comes back, how do they balance minutes? Maybe they'll realize it wasn't worth it to get Magette when they had all wings anyway, and they've since added more. Weird team.

The other puzzling trade was the Suns taking advantage of the Bobcats. Jason Richardson gives Phoenix a wing who can shoot and pick up some outside scoring, while the Bobcats, who seem to always need scorers, traded their best one for two role players... not to mention Jared Dudley, who always got minutes. I guess Charlotte wants to use more two-point-guard sets (though that may also be a way to showcase Felton while they shop him) and really wanted a post creator. But Diaw has to match his one great season to even come close to giving this trade value. Mr. Jordan, you can start paying attention any day now.

Meanwhile, Phoenix can play Richardson at the 2 or 3 and give the Suns' perimeter a rest. They also realized that instead of finding a normal backup for Nash, they should just make sure Grant Hill is on the court when he's off as the de facto ball handler. When they don't have Shaq, they might considering going small again with Amare and Matt Barnes up front.

I feel bad because Phoenix and Dallas started off with problems but look much better now, and I think they could be contenders, but they're going to have to fight just to get in. Then again, no one besides the Lakers has really stepped up in the west. San Antonio quietly integrated new players and survived a rough stretch of injuries, so maybe I shouldn't have counted them out. Still trying to get a read on Utah and Houston as they deal with typical injuries. New Orleans and Portland are still learning, but doing well enough to be in the top teams.

I still hold a spot in my heart for Iverson, so it's rough to see Denver thrive without him, especially since they haven't really replaced Camby.... while Al's scoring drops big in Detroit and they're not the favorites I thought they'd still be. Alas. I hope he hasn't totally killed his future plans.

More trades are coming for sure. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland stays pat or tries to get another shooter. They might want another big guy who can shoot, since they only have three post guys they really use, and two of them can't score. I think every team but the Celtics can think of a trade that might help them, so this could be a crazy time.

I like my picks so far, except for the Pistons. They could still pull it together, but Boston and Cleveland are the real deal in the east. LeBron is the easy MVP, although Dwyane Wade has come back so strong. O.J. Mayo is the only rookie averaging 20, and that's a rare number for rookies these days, so I can feel good. Derrick Rose has probably impressed me more, though, and if he gets the Bulls in the playoffs, he has to win it (because that team is chaotic). I am disappointed in the Wizards, who managed to weather injuries before. At least they're picking up young guys. I think my COY would be Lawrence Frank, because he's the one guy in charge of a team that's really ahead of where I thought they'd be, but Mike Brown, Stan Van Gundy, and Gregg Poppovich have been taking good teams and doing more with less, i.e. talent and injury problems. D'Antoni and Skiles can jump in if their teams make the playoffs.

ALL NBA so far: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Dwight Howard, Garnett
2ND: C Paul, B Roy, Nowitzki, Duncan, Bosh

ALL ROOK: Mayo, D Rose, Beasley, R Westbrook, Rudy Fernandez
2ND: M Gasol, DJ Augustin, Mario Chalmers, Brook Lopez, Oden

DEF: Dwight Howard
MIP: Devin Harris
6TH: Jason Terry

I will look over all stars and post my choices before the big day.

Leo's Big NBA Preview 08-09, Full Edition

2008-11-05T03:51:00.000-08:00

Last time I gave win totals, finals, and major awards. Here's more in depth capsules of each team.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

In summary: the Lakers are the favorite, the Hornets showed a lot and will be tough, and the Jazz and Rockets will be good if they play together. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs used to dominate, but it looks like they're too old now. The Blazers will battle with the possibly dysfunctional Nuggets and Clippers for the last playoff spot.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

As I have been saying all along, a healthy Andrew Bynum is enough for the Lakers to win it all. Their defense wasn't that great last year and they almost did it; now they have a solid rebounder and shot blocker. They aren't sure if he will fit next to Pau (I think he will) or if Odom will fit at 3 or the bench (I think he'll be fine in most spots). But even if something doesn't work, they can easily trade Odom for more defense. They have three more options at small forward for different things. They can pick their spots. I was a little worried about backup center, where only Chris Mihm remains, and he's looked awful the past few years. It appears, however, that they may try to stagger their rotation so that Gasol and Bynum are always in there. Losing Ronny Turiaf may hurt; if Josh Powell steps up, it would be nice, but they can always look at that trade for more power down low. They just have too much depth and options around Kobe to be bad.

As much as it pains me, and I will get tired of all the Lakers flags and bandwagoneers hopping next May, I have to go with them for the title.

2. Utah Jazz

Utah won 54 games and played the Lakers tough last year. So it makes sense that they will be on it again, especially since their division sucks. The Jazz have size and shooting, although they haven't been great defensively. Some are worried about their impending free agents, but they have all season to convince them otherwise. I'd think about moving either Boozer or Kirilenko, and it looks like they will have to let go of one, but for now, they have a chance to be pretty good. They have the most depth of anyone outside of LA, and their only weak spot (two guard) is manned by some improving youngsters. Deron Williams is second only to Chris Paul amongst point guards, and the inside-out duo of Boozer and Okur kills. If they couldn't beat the Lakers without Bynum, it would be tough with him there, but they should be able to take everyone else in the West.

3. New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets surprised everyone with 56 wins and a near-takedown of the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, they won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't have to. Chris Paul is the best point in a long time, and they rely on him to create. They have surrounded him with great shooters and finishers. The only real question is depth. They have loads of wings and not much down low or at the point, although they may need those wings with Peja hurt often and Mo Pete aging. They can survive, but if Paul or David West gets hurt, they'll be sunk. They just need a few bench pieces to make a major run at the title.

4. Houston Rockets

Maybe the most talked about team of the offseason, the Rockets have a fascinating team built this season. After the star duo of Yao and McGrady kept faltering (mostly with injuries), they looked for other options. Ron Artest is now the third guy; he has to fit in with those stars, although I think he'll be most needed when they are out. He's not much of a risk, as his contract is up and he has much to gain from good behavior. I don't know how they will function at full strength, but I also don't think that will happen often. They have depth now in the post and at guard, even if they don't know if any of those guys will step up. This is their big chance to get out of the first round. I think it happens.

5. San Antonio Spurs

For years, I picked them because it was simple. Half the time, I was right. I wouldn't normally denounce them as slowing down, but there are too many problems here. They looked awful vulnerable in the Hornets series, and then didn't put up much of a fight with the Lakers, despite having a big advantage inside. They were supposed to go out and get help, but they didn't. They brought in some youth, but no one of note. With the conference looking tough, perhaps this is the time they don't finish in the top three. They always seem to pull it out at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did again, but they will struggle with Ginobli out early and they may not recover this time. Duncan is still great, and they're not dead yet, but they need more help and the conference is too stacked for them to make it five titles.

6. Phoenix Suns

I gave them the desperation bounce last year, and it failed. I guess they're still the most wanting team in the league, but their talent level has fallen off. Shaq claims to be motivated, but does it even matter now? I was loving them like so many the past few years, but the window is closed. They could have made a run with a few moves, but they decided to cut costs. They really needed a wing who could shoot and a backup point. Not to keep knocking their ownership, but they sold the picks that became Rudy Fernandez and Rajon Rondo for cash. That's painful. I do like having Shaq and Robin Lopez around to keep Amare at forward, and Nash should take on more of a scoring role, but I doubt they'll make that run they need. It won't be Terry Porter's fault; they can look squarely at owner Sarver and say he ruined a great run.

7. Dallas Mavericks

I'm not sold on their complete demise like many are. Jason Kidd will be in better shape running this team for a full year. But it won't matter, because they peaked a while ago and the conference is too loaded for them to get far. They could use another high volume shooter to space the floor, and they will have the money after this year to sign him. For now, they can win 50 again but are stuck in the middle of the pack.

8. Portland Trail Blazers

I'm cautiously jumping on the high-speeding Blazers Bandwagon, and only a little. I do think they can make the playoffs, but only because Golden State and Denver took such huge steps backward. This will be a fun team to watch, but they aren't winning 50 yet. Oden is going to be awkward at first and they aren't that much different than last year. Eventually, Jarryd Bayless will form a tough back court with Roy, and Oden could develop some more. But it's not going to be all that much better this year.

9. Denver Nuggets

After watching the Nuggets last year, it was apparent that their production did not equal their talent. They weren't that far behind everyone else in the standings, but then got humiliated in the playoffs. Some experts claimed they weren't a terrible defensive team because of their pace, but it sure never looked like anyone besides Camby cared, and now he's gone. They would seem to do better with shooters like J.R. Smith and Linus Kleiza flanking Iverson and Melo, but they spent a lot of time last year using Anthony Carter at the point because they didn't trust Iverson, while Kleiza was deemed a three. Maybe they'll change, but this team just does not mix well together. Smith and Leiza are keepers, but Iverson may be gone. And why not at least get some draft picks out of Camby? That was bad. They can still make the playoffs if other teams get hurt or falter, but they are going downhill this year.

10. Los Angeles Clippers

After another forgotten year, I thought they'd give up and go into rebuilding mode again. Then they surprised everyone by going after free agents. Then Elton Brand surprised them. Now they're left with a team in the middle. Much like the Nuggets, I like this team on paper, but the sum doesn't equal the parts. Baron Davis wants to run, but not everyone else does. Chris Kaman doesn't mix with Camby, although it was still a great trade (they just need to move him somewhere else). They're relying on Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas for help, which is always a bad risk. I love Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, but they need some seasoning. They're almost there, but they need to move one of those centers and get a little bench help. They can make the playoffs if a couple teams slip up, but I can't see them finishing above .500.

11. Golden State Warriors

I feel for those great Bay Area fans. For years, they watched the Warriors finish just out of the playoffs in eternal mediocrity mode. Then they took a gamble on Baron Davis, some of the late lottery picks actually turned out, and they got in and had one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent history. Last year, they built on that with almost 50 wins, but then missed the playoffs... and then Davis, the catalyst, departed. They kept some young guys and were hoping to come back from that, but then Monta Ellis got hurt. Alas, they are stuck in mediocrity again. They brought in Magette, but they already have wings who can score big (and not help in any other way). They don't have a point guard now, and even if Ellis can play it, he won't be back for a while. Just when things were looking up, they're going to be back winning 34-38 games and not quite doing anything. Sorry, dubs.

12. Sacramento Kings

The lottery losers start here. They've slowly been sliding backwards since those almost years with Webber and Co. They tried to import Artest to keep afloat, but that didn't work. With Bibby gone, they're back squarely in rebuilding mode. They managed to win a decent amount of games last year without any of their stars besides Kevin Martin, but they don't have any help for him. This is a mediocre team with a lot of hardworking but unimpactful players. They need a real impact player next to Martin, but seem to be settling for a lot of nice guys. This is going to be bad for a while.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves

Still trying to get their footing post-KG. This team actually has some nice pieces, but is undersized and will suffer defensively. Al Jefferson is a building block, and they have shooters to flank him, but they won't be able to board or play D yet. 30 wins would be a nice progression.

14. Jerklahoma Jerkfaces

Can't say it. Not yet. Much like last year, they will struggle and watch Durant shoot a lot. They're taking their time, and the new digs will allow them to do so. They need to figure out which position their young guys fit at.

15. Memphis Grizzlies

After the Gasol meltdown, I questioned whether they should even exist anymore. I'm not so down on them now, but it's clear they don't want to spend ANTYHING for any foreseeable time. They are building a nice team on the perimeter, but man, they are hurting down low. They think Gasol the Younger can be a real center. We'll see. I'm predicting Mayo for rookie of the year because he can score, and he will get shots here.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

In summary: the Celtics, Pistons, and Cavs will vie for the conference crown. The Magic and Sixers will make the playoffs easily, but nothing more. After that, it's a crowded race between the Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and Bobcats for the last spot. Pending on injuries, all those teams could slip in or fall apart. I like the Wizards, Hawks, and Raptors based on talent, but it's a real toss up.

1. Boston Celtics

The C's ran wild in the regular season, then had to find themselves in the playoffs. They did so and won it all. I still like them for 60 wins and a spot on top of the conference, but I'm not so sure about a repeat. Losing James Posey will hurt, and it looked like Ray Allen was through at times last year (though he recovered for the finals). They won't fall off like Miami, and they still have the hunger to do great, but I'm guessing they have some more trouble. It's hard to repeat, even for great teams. I am giving a slight edge to....

2. Detroit Pistons

I like them this year for the East title. I know I've said that every year, and they always do good but fail in the conference finals. This is the last straw, though. Joe Dumars explored a lot of trade options this summer and ultimately decided none were worth taking. That should light a fire under these guys. Plus, they won 59 games with a coach they didn't like. They may do better with Michael Curry, one of the most respected guys while playing. One of the problems the past few years was that they didn't have much bench help, but they have been developing good young subs like Maxiell, Stuckey, and Afflalo. They will also move McDyess to the bench, and give their starters an inside defensive guy in Amir Johnson. On top of all that, it's a contract year for 'Sheed. They have the motivation and the depth they didn't before. Even Kwame can help by just giving them a big body to throw around for a few minutes. I think they make a run for it. There's a small chance it will all implode, but I think they have one more last run.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

After their big midseason trade, I thought they were a very mediocre team that fit well beside LeBron but didn't scare anyone. Then they scared the crap out of the Celtics. Now, they have a great scoring point next to LB in Mo Williams, and they are thinking finals. They have shooting, but they don't quite have the big men. They dumped Joe Smith and Donyell Marshall, who could hit shots, and Drew Gooden, the only inside guy they had since Boozer. Now they rely on a crumbling Ben Wallace and maybe crumbling Z, with Anderson Varejao providing energy but no O. They still have some expiring contracts to make another trade, so I'm guessing that will happen. Until they do so, I have them just behind Detroit and Boston. In a weird way, J.J. Hickson is in one of the most important spots of any rookie - if he can show them anything, he will help a contender right away, and more importantly, give LBJ a reason to think about staying.

4. Orlando Magic

They won 50 games and a playoff series, but no one seems to be taking them that seriously. Some think their small lineup won't stick, but it did well last year. They flank Dwight Howard with shooters, which makes sense. Mickael Pietrus can shoot and play D, so he helps. It's mostly the point guard spot - Jameer Nelson is a great backup but can't be the main guy all the time. They have no one else there, and not a lot of depth, so that will hurt. But they're still a 50 win team and an easy playoff and division winner.

5. Philadelphia 76ers

With apologies to the Clippers, it was a great summer. They took an exciting young team and gave it a much-needed anchor. He may not be a franchise player, and they may not be contenders yet, but in another year or two this will be one of the most solid teams in the east. They must develop their young guys more and hope some can learn to shoot. The only real question is what will happen with Andre Miller, but they should be playing Lou Williams a lot anyway in case he needs to step up. I'm calling 45-48 wins for the hometown team, and maybe a playoff win.

6. Toronto Raptors

From this point on, all the playoff spots are up in the air. Injuries could sink any of these teams. The Raptors are no different. People are talking about them as a possible dark horse, but they've gotten rid of a lot of depth. They have no guards off the bench, so if anything happens to Calerdon or Parker, they're toast. They could have asked for more with the Ford-O'Neal deal, but didn't. Their starting line up is fine, and they may get more out of Bargnani someday, but I'm skeptical. I put them sixth because that's what their lineup merits, but as with as every team from here on, they're on thin ice.

7. Atlanta Hawks

It's strange that people are denouncing them and playing up the Raptors and other teams, because they actually showed something in the playoffs and have as much talent as anyone outside the top 3. Their lack of depth is alarming, but their lineup is strong enough to overcome it. They play well together, and they should benefit from having Bibby for a full year. They won't make any huge leaps, but I like them to get back to the playoffs with ease, pending injuries.

8. Washington Wizards

Here's a team that's always in the injury report, although they usually find a way around it. They will lose Gilbert for a while, but they got by that last year. The big question for them is developing some young guys for depth. Andray Blatche and Nick Young could pay off huge this year. Etan Thomas is back, which will make up for any time Brendan Haywood misses. Even with their problems, my guess is they will win around 40 games again. I'm not sure the other teams have caught up yet, so I give them the last spot.

9. Chicago Bulls

Where to put this team? The promising team that won almost 50 two years ago, or the disastrous team from last year? Maybe in the middle. They need to carve out the roster, and that will happen as the year goes along. They need to move some people and make a lot of decisions, so I think they will fall short of the playoffs. But if Derrick Rose picks it up right away, they have a shot. They have some scorers, and maybe if the big men step up, they won't have to wait.

10. Indiana Pacers

This is the weirdest run team. They have no stars or inside threats, but they almost made the playoffs last year with a similar team - and no point guard. They survived without Jermaine O'Neal by jacking a lot of threes, so maybe T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush will take them further. Still, I just can't over how blah this roster is. Granger is an excellent player, but he can't carry a franchise. Most of these guys would be great role players in support of a big guy, but they don't have that. I can't figure them in the playoffs, but yet I could see it. Maybe that's not a good thing - they are going to be in mediocrity hell for a while if they keep this up.

11. Charlotte Bobcats

Much like the Pacers, they don't have great stars but have put together a solid team. Larry Brown wants to fire these guys up, but there's not much excitement. They could do well by going small, which clears them of their major weakness in the post alongside Okafor. LB usually needs a year or two to make an impact, so I don't think they can get in. I'm also curious about drafting D. J. Augustin and how that impacts Felton, who's not bad.

12. Miami Heat

I was thinking they'd have a long way back before Wade started killing in the Olympics. They're in better shape, but I give them the least hope of all the near-playoff teams. They have the talent, but it doesn't mix. Shawn Marion needs a true point to harness his energy, and they don't have it. Michael Beasley could be rookie of the year, but he can't get minutes or shots with Mr. Matrix in the way. If they try to play small, they'll get killed defensively. They need to dump Marion at some point for picks or space or young guys. Wade can carry them to 34 wins, but without a center or a starting guard next to him, they'll have a hard time breaking into May. If they can pull it off, though, he should get some MVP consideration.

13. Milwaukee Bucks

I almost had the Bucks in the playoff conversation, but not yet. I like their moves; they had too many shooters last year, and now get a slasher in Jefferson and a pass-first guy in promoting Ramon Sessions. They're still a little soft down low, where Bogut and Villanueva scare nobody (or Gadzuric), so they need another rebounder/defender to get anywhere. But they're getting more balance, and they have some depth. Bogut needs to prove himself before they can be taken seriously.

14. New York Knicks

The old punchlines are over, or at least, they will be soon. Mike D'Antoni arrives with some much-needed optimism, and he can probably sculpt this team in a few years because they have some young talent, and a few of those awful contracts are finally going away. There's still way too much turmoil (Starbury? anyone?) to get close to the playoffs, but he may have something going soon.

15. New Jersey Nets

They wanted to rebuild and get space available for LeBron, so they did that. Now they're going to be awful. This team has no experience except for some role players and Vince, who never seems to try hard in these situations. They will lose, and they will develop young guys, but if they don't get anyone in two years, they will feel pretty stupid, Brooklyn or not.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

LAL over POR
UT over DAL
NO over PHX
HOU over SAN

LAL over HOU
NO over UT

LAL over NO

BOS over WSH
DET over ATL
CLE over TOR
ORL over PHL

BOS over ORL
DET over CLE

DET over BOS

FINALS: LAL over DET in 7

Wait, I already said that. Oh well.

Some other things I didn't put last time in the shortened preview:

ALL NBA

LeBron, Garnett, Dwight, Paul, Kobe

SECOND

Amare, Duncan, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wade

THIRD

Bosh, Pierce, Yao, Nash, Iverson

ALL ROOKIE

Beasley, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez, Derrick Rose, Oden

SECOND

Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Eric Gordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts

ALL DEF

Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Chris Paul

ALL STAR TEAMS

WEST: Starters - Yao, Duncan, Carmelo, Paul, Kobe
Bench - Amare, Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Boozer, Nash, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant

EAST: Starters - Garnett, LeBron, Dwight, (updated) Iverson, Wade
Bench - Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Elton Brand, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton

6th Man: Andre Kirilenko

Most Improved: Ramon Sessions

EDITOR'S NOTE: Just as I was about to post this, I heard about the massive Iverson deal. I had to pull out and rethink things. This is why it's hard to make season predictions, because there is usually something big in the days right before and after the season starts.

As I look now, I don't think I'm going to change my overall outlook for either team. Iverson will be nice in Detroit because he can get to the hole and he has shooters. I always wanted the Sixers to pair him up with 'Sheed in the earlier part of this decade, and now he gets to play with him, Rip, Prince, and Stuckey, who can all shoot it. They will have to change their style, but they still have urgency and maybe a guy who they can finally define as THE one on that team. Can't you see a rematch of Kobe-Iverson in the finals?

As for the Nuggets, I'm a little confused. This is a nice move because they needed to find a real point guard who could shoot, so they could have a backcourt of shooters to support Melo. Now Billups comes in and J. R. Smith gets more minutes, and that's great... but then why did they dump Camby if they're making moves to help themselves in the present? I figured Iverson would be gone after Camby left, but they'd use him also for cap space. This is a mixed message combined with the last trade. They could win more games, but the lack of a big man will hurt them. Maybe if Nene finally comes around, they'll be ok, but they should have thought about all of this.

NBA Preview 08-09, quick edition

2008-10-27T22:06:00.000-07:00

Just a few for the record:

Predicted Wins, Approx.

WEST

1. Lakers 56
2. Jazz 54
3. Hornets 53
4. Rockets 52
5. Spurs 51
6. Suns 50
7. Mavericks 48
8. Blazers 44

9. Nuggets 40
10. Clippers 38
11. Warriors 36
12. Kings 32
13. T Wolves 30
14. Not the Sonics 22
15. Grizzlies 18

EAST

1. Celtics 58
2. Pistons 55
3. Cavs 51
4. Magic 50
5. Sixers 48
6. Raptors 45
7. Wizards 42
8. Hawks 40

9. Bulls 37
10. Pacers 36
11. Bobcats 35
12. Heat 32
13. Bucks 30
14. Knicks 28
15. Nets 20

CONF FINALS: Lakers vs. Hornets, Celtics vs. Pistons

FINALS: Lakers def. Pistons in 7

MVP: LeBron James

DEF: Kevin Garnett

ROOKIE: O. J. Mayo

COACH: Jerry Sloan (Or most likely, someone who surprises people and makes me look stupid)

a Brand new day in philly

2008-07-10T17:06:00.000-07:00

What is going on?????

This is one of the greatest days in Sixers history, especially recently. And who saw it coming? I asked for it, but never expected it to happen.... and not like this.

I'm shocked and elated. However, I can also feel the pain of a franchise that has had all too much of it.

See, as a Sixers fan living in LA, who also follows the Clippers a little, I'm torn. Since I moved out here, I've grown attached to the Clippers and they're really the only west coast team I can follow... in anything... pro or college. I have rooted for them especially in light of the Lakers, whom I cannot stand. I've been pushing the Sixers to go after Elton Brand for a long time, but now, I'm wondering if it should feel so good. After the Baron Davis news came out, I was sad that the Sixers would probably not get Brand, but it was nice to hear the Clippers finally get some recognition. Now they're stuck halfway, and I hate to see that. I am elated - again, DELIGHTED - to get Brand; he's not perfect but he's just what the Sixers need (as opposed to Josh Smith, who's too much like their other guys).... but I don't like doing it this way. And I do think the Clippers actually have a better supporting cast, at least offensively, but the imbalance of conferences had to factor in heavily in this decision.

As for my hometown team.... what can I say? They actually did the thing I wanted them to for the first time ever. They got the guy who fits them perfectly. They made up for the Iverson trade, because they used that deal to get cap space and they actually used it. And Andre Miller turned out to be still valuable. Two years ago, I was sure this franchise was dead and I was openly rooting for them to tank TWICE so they could get prospects in each of the past two drafts. But here they are, on a major upswing. They made the playoffs, surprisingly, with a feisty young squad, but they needed a real big man force to be taken seriously.... and they just got him. And I don't have to worry about them throwing cash at Smith! Truly, it is a glorious day. This stuff just doesn't happen in Philadelphia that often.

I don't think they will instantly be a favorite. They need some shooting off the bench, and some more experience for the young guys. But after next year, Boston and Detroit will be in a tough spot, LeBron will be making a big decision, and the Sixers could be in a great spot. Toronto, Orlando, Washington, Atlanta, and maybe some others will be better. But I like the future of the Sixers. I love what they're doing now. Just a few months ago, I was still furious with them. Again, I am sorry for how this went down. The Clippers deserve better than this. They've suffered too long. I hope the Clips can get Okafor and they both can make the playoffs. That would be a good way to end this all.

But I'm also happy. Happy for the first time in a while with the ol' team.

[As I hear more on the radio right now, it appears that Brand's agent was hell-bent on making this difficult for the Clips. I hear shades of Drew Rosenhaus and Scott Boras, and I don't like it. We're still hurting from the rug pulled out on TO and Rosenhaus; I do not like having David Falk's ego being the thing that potentially saved the Sixers.]

draft reactions

2008-07-02T23:44:00.000-07:00

I was waiting a few days after the draft to give out my reaction, because I wasn't sure who was going where. Already, though, the free agency period is heating up. Baron Davis opted out of his contract, which surprised everyone, and hinted at the Clippers as a possibility. Now he might even have a deal in place? Argggh. I hate you, Warriors. You're ruining my summer.

See, my hope this summer was that the Clips would go cheap (just like the old days!), try to rebuild around theri young guys, let Magette and Brand go, and then Brand wouldn't have any choice but to look at the Sixers. Brand has been saying that he wants to stay, but he did opt out, so he might have been persuaded if they started dumping people. But now, if Davis comes, he'll almost certainly stay, and the Sixers will have to look elsewhere.

(It should be noted that they are getting together in inspiration of something like the Celtics, but they are doing it in the west. That's going to be tougher. It's also another reason I thought Brand would consider Philly. I mean, the Clippers have been spending more recently, but I didn't think they would try to jump back in the race with such a tough conference. I thought they would say f--- it, let their stars go, and slowly rebuild again. After wishing good vibes for the Clips fo so long, I should be elated that Dunleavy has finally convinced Sterling to spend some cash, but why now?)

This has already created new movement. Sources now report that the Sixers are looking at Josh Smith. Meh.... while I like him, and I think he's going to be a force, he's just way too much like the other guys they have. They can run with him, Thad, and Iggy, but that's about it. They need shooting, preferrably from a big man spot. That's why I was so keen on Brand, and I'm sure that's why they drafted Speights. Smith is a great player, but he's redundant in Philly. He's better off in Atlanta, where fans like him, he has a home base, and he's part of a rising group. Yes, they have a lot of other people to sign eventually, but he should be a priority. They can always let Childress and Marvin Williams go, but they need to keep him.

Now Golden State has a ton of space, though who knows if they'll use it. I don't entirely blame them for taking a conservative approach, when they just spent a lot and still missed the playoffs. Davis has a history of injury problems, and even though he was a catalyst for them, he's aging and they have some young guys coming up. Besides, the west just went from strong to ridiculous. Most importantly, they can say, they never gave up that much in the first place to get him. They had a good run, and while everyone in the bay is prboably very disappointed, at least they ended the playoff drought with a bang. Still.... this is not the way to entice maybe the most passionate fans in the league.

And you still ruined my plans. Damn you, Chris Mullin.

Anyway, onto draft thoughts...

ATLANTA - no picks. Like I said, I would re-sign Smith in a second. He, Horford, and Johnson deserve the big bucks. Everyone else is movable.

BOSTON - feeling great about their chemistry, they took some wild chances at wings J. R. Giddens and Bill Walker. I forgot about Giddens, who once showed much promise at Kansas. He's had problems but the talent is there. Walker had a weird route to college, but health issues are his only concern now. Risky, but maybe a great plan.

CHARLOTTE - while I like Augustin, I thought they could have used their first pick on a big man and their second on a point. Chalmers would still have been available. Instead, they may have to trade Felton, and while Ajinca is interesting, he's not going to help any time soon. For a team close to contending for a playoff spot, they could have done more.

CHICAGO - they bit for Rose. I'm sold if Del Negro is really thinking about going up tempo like his bosses in Pheonix. Now they have to see how to move people. Good luck.

CLEVELAND - for a team that needs help now, J.J. Hickson was a weird pick. He showed promise but will take a few years. I thought they were targeting Koufos, and he was available. This is not the way to make LeBron feel better. They did find a keeper late in Darnell Jackson, who can probably step in earlier.

DALLAS - they need to worry about free agents and trades. A change of philosophy is nice, so they'll start with that.

DENVER - they traded the pick away, thinking no one could have helped them. That's smart. They need a few trades, but probably nothing big.

DETROIT - they didn't like anyone at 29, so they traded for some second round chances. They have a good history with late picks, and I can see one or two of these guys contributing.

GOLDEN STATE - many have questioned taking Anthony Randolph with Brandan Wright there. I'm sure many will be even more angry now that Davis is likely gone. But they have a nice foundation. They seem to have a number of big guys now developing.

HOUSTON - I picked them to pick Greene, and they did, in a roundabout way. Why? Well, they picked up Joey Dorsey in the process. He might be too much like Chuck Hayes, but they can always use more big guys. I really like Greene for them. He can shoot, and they don't have depth on the wings. Great night.

INDIANA - did a lot of dealing, and came out with a completely new team. I guess I liek the direction they have now, although I didn't get the second deal. They gave up the higher pick but got back less, throwing Diogu away when I thought he was going to have more of an impact with JO gone. Also, I like Hibbert, but he has more value on a contending team that needed inside depth. I don't know if he fits in a rebuilding process. They could have gone for more potential there.

Of course, they're going to be in the lottery again next year. So maybe this is just a start.

LA CLIPPERS - had a solid night, picking up Gordon for guard depth and then landing DeAndre Jordan in the second round. He's a nothing-to-lose pick now, so that's big if he actually does something.

LA LAKERS - didn't do much, and don't need to.

MEMPHIS - is still puzzling. I think Love is solid, but they need more than that. Mayo can be their best two guard easily, and is a better pick. So I liked it from that end. They saved themselves by getting Arthur late; that could be a steal. But I chuckled at the fact that while they finally got rid of Brian Cardinal and his horrible contract, they picked up worse ones. At least they can try trading these guys.

They potentially got two starters, so that has to be considered a decent night... but are they going to ever keep any of these guys?

MIAMI - won big, even if Riley doesn't know it. Beasley was the best choice, and they stole Chalmers in the second round. Great picks.

MILWAUKEE - made it appparent that they are trying, and picked up some nice pieces. Jefferson is a good value for Yi, who never fit. I don't like them adding another scorer to a lineup full of them, but he can play some D as well. I don't know why they still drafted Alexander after the trade, but no one else was left. They should look for a defensive, bruising power forward to start and add balance. There may be more deals.

MINNESOTA - on the flip side of Memphis, I like their deals. Love and Miller give them two components, and they won't be hesitant to play there. They may be small, but Love fits with Jefferson and they needed a three who can score. It's a much better step for them.

NEW JERSEY - made it pretty clear that they're going all in for LeBron. There's no question. They added two offensive big guys to mix in with their defensive ones. Ryan Anderson thus makes less sense, but picking up CDR late was a huge steal. I like it, but of course it's all pending on the big prize in two years.

NEW ORLEANS - decided not to take anyone, despite CDR being on the board. Oh well. They'll try the open market.

NEW YORK - is taking it kinda slowly with Gallinari. I pushed for Bayless and Augustin, but I'll trust D'Antoni. He probably didn't want a rookie at the point. Gallinari may actually contribute sooner, and they can use him at several spots.

I have to give them credit. Isiah got hismelf into trouble by always going for the quick fix and the best guy at the moment. He always tried to spend and acquire people as soon as he could, without regards to long term effects. I think Walsh is going to be more patient. He knows he has some huge contracts expiring next year, and he will sit and wait until next year's trading deadline to get the deal he wants. That's a smarter way to work.

ORLANDO - Courtney Lee is solid and will get minutes at the two guard spot for a long time. They'll look at free agents up front.

PHILLY - Dear Mr. Speights,

I know that living in Philly presents a lot of temptations. Trust me, we've all been on board for that late night run to Pat's or Geno's or the Pretzel Factory or the South Street Diner and such. It's tough. But you have to get through it. You have a chance to start and contribute right away on a playoff team. How many middle round picks can say that? Do it for all of us who never could say no to a cheesesteak or a giant slice of pizza. You have a chance to be a big part of the future here.

Please?

PHOENIX - needed a backup point and a wing, and got neither. Robin Lopez is a nice role player, but they need to get more help and I don't know how much cap space they have.... or if they will spend much.

PORTLAND - did a million things and came out on top. I love Bayless next to Roy; he won't have to handle as much and can be a good scorer. They also picked up Diogu, who has some post moves and will add depth. Batum is likely bait for more trades. And they're adding two guys they drafted last year? Yowza.

SACRAMENTO - everyone is ripping them, but I don't think Thompson was a horrible pick. He can score and he doesn't have to be a savior; he just needs to form a decent tandem with Shelden Williams. None of the point guards they wanted were available, so they had to go big. They can probably re-sign Udrih and look at guards next year.

SAN ANTONIO - I have no idea who Geroge Hill is, but I guess they think he's a decent backup. They need wing help, but that may come in free agency.

SEATTLE - refuse to call them Oklahoma City until they're gone. I liked them picking up Westbrook, and they added some future and immediate help in the post. They're a two guard away from making a real turn. Too bad it will come in a weird place.

TORONTO - after the trade, they're looking nice. They need a backup point now, but that's not so hard to get. They did pick up Jawai, who might be a player in a few years.

UTAH - took another big guy. And one who doesn't really have D. I think they could have gone for a point (Chalmers) or someone else.

WASHINGTON - they were disappointed Hibbert was gone, because they could use some immediate help. With him and Lopez off the board, they decided to take another big guy project. It's the best they could do. Signing people is more important, and I'm sure they'll keep it together.

More once more news breaks.

BTW, I feel awful for you, Seattle. What a terrible move. Just an awful debacle, though one we should have seen coming (like Charlotte?)

mock draft 2008

2008-06-25T23:38:00.000-07:00

With just one day left, I present my mock draft. The NBA draft is always intriguing because one guy can make a huge difference. Franchises can change their direction in one night. Execs can look like geniuses and prolong their careers with one really smart pick. It doesn't get as much attention as the NFL draft, which is longer, but it has more impact. One guy cannot save or doom a football team (unless maybe he's a quarterback). Yet we forget that.....

I always do many mocks, but here I will post it and give thoughts on what I would do. I will give what teams should do (S) along with what I predict they will actually do (P). Let's roll.

# 1 CHICAGO
S: Well, I initially said that's it easy to just go Beas-y. But I'm not so sure now. I like that deal with Miami I drew up, where Wade and Beasley end up in Chicago, while Ty Thomas and Ben Gordon join Rose in south beach. But that's a lot to work out.

I think Rose is the safe pick, and there's no doubt he will sell tickets and get excitement going. For a guy on the hot seat like Paxson, that looks awfully good. I just hate to wrap my mind around the other moves they'd have to make with Rose. If they really could deal Hinrich for another big man, I wouldn't fault them. I still think the best thing to do is take Beasley, but I can see why they're scared.

As I've just learned, though, they can't get in on Jermaine O'Neal. That was one of the very few ways they could have dumped guards and got big men. That's not helping. If it was any other team with the same players, I'd say Beasley. Maybe.

P: They'll take Rose. They need a positive story.

# 2 MIAMI
S: That trade with Chicago is good, but maybe not as much for them, and I wouldn't want to give up on Wade yet. So I might not be that crazy. I do like the idea of joining Wade and Mayo, which seems like the real possibility here.

But I've been thinking recently.... doesn't it make more sense to just take Beasley and then trade/let go Marion? Marion needs a true point and a running team to succeed; Wade doesn't play that way. Beasley could play the three along Wade and Haslem in a half court offense; he could post up wings and then they wouldn't have to worry about his size or finding a real big man. And while Mayo would be a perfect compliment to Wade, it shouldn't be hard for them to find another combo guard who can shoot. They almost did last summer. So if Chicago does take Rose, I might just like Beasley, unless someone offers something really good for him.... but that would have to be Minnesota, because he won't slip past 3.

And if Rose is there, I'd trade down for Mayo. Other teams would offer a lot for Rose, so they can get more if he drops. I just don't like him and Wade together.

P: They take Beasley, then trade down. They'll see what they can get from Minnesota to get Mayo. Unless Riley really is working the most complex misdirection ever.

# 3 MINNESOTA
S: I'd do anything to get Beasley.They can play him at either forward, and let him find his way. He's better than anyone they can get at 3, and he's worth giving up things. They have two early second round picks and Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man for Miami. If that's not enough, they have Miami's first round pick next year. I don't think they can re-acquire Mark Blount, but maybe they can try or make a promise to later. Or McHale can tell Riley, "Riles... come on.... I took Antoine Walker off your hands, and gave you the expiring contract from Ricky Davis. I believe you owe me." If Miami wants to move down, they need to make this happen.

If Beasley is unavailable, I'd trade down. I like Mayo, and much more than any of their guards, but they need a forward or center. In that case, see what the Knicks or Clippers will offer and then take Gallinari or Love.

If Miami has Rose and wants to trade down, they can take Mayo and then make the Heat include them in a deal.

P: Mayo to trade up. They find a way to get Beasley if Miami doesn't want him. McHale needs some positive news as much as anyone else.

# 4 SEATTLE
S: They like Bayless and Westbrook, and I do too. Of course, I'd trade anyone not named Durant to get Rose if he becomes available, but that doesn't leave a lot. Most likely, it comes down to the combo guards. I might actually like Eric Gordon the best out of them because I know he can play the two if he doesn't work as a point; the others are going to struggle if they can't adjust. Bayless looks good, but he doesn't have much room for failure. Westbrook would at least bring defensive guarantees. It's tough. I'd consider swapping with the Knicks to get Westbrook and see what they can add in.

Late news is them leaning towards Brook Lopez. Not a terrible idea, because their last few centers haven't worked out. But then, what if he does too? That's a lot of wasted projects when there are still good guards available. I don't know if they take that risk at number 4.

P: I thought they might swap with the Knicks, but it appears that Westbrook is high on a lot of lists. So I think they just stay here and take him.

# 5 MEMPHIS
S: Good Lord, where to start? They seem to be high on Kevin Love, who is not a franchise guy. They need a star big man, not a complimentary pick. Also, since Juan Carlos Navarro left, and they might deal Mike Miller, they could use a wing. This team is in such disarray, who knows anymore. I would roll the dice with Anthony Randolph, or even take Brook Lopez, who is slow...but so is Love.... and Lopez has a real post game and a few inches on him. Randolph would at least have the potential to be an athletic four, with younger Gasol and Darko slumming around.

P: They apparently love Love. But who knows. They might trade this pick and Brian Cardinal for a used Ford Tempo the way things are going.

# 6 NEW YORK
S: If there's any way they can get Derrick Rose, do that. No matter what. Same with Mayo. I like all those guys for D'Antoni.

However, I expect all of them to be gone by now, with the Knicks picking between either Bayless or Westbrook, and also D.J. Augustin, or maybe addressing forward with Randolph, Gallinari, or Joe Alexander. They need a point guard, and I like Augustin the best. Westbrook will be much better defensively, but I don't think D'Antoni is even going to try playing any D with this team, and Westbrook doesn't fit the offense. Augustin has been compared to Steve Nash and I'd even say that he has the best point guard skills of anyone offensively in this draft besides Rose (and he's a better shooter). His only problem is his size, but I really think that will only hurt him defensively. Chris Paul is an inspiration.

I know Augustin isn't rated this high, so maybe they look at trading down, but I would go with him.

P: Tough call. They've been rumored with a number of people. Bayless is slipping, but I can't imagine D'Antoni passing up on a quick guard who can score. Even if he's not a real point, he brings size and offense.

# 7 LA CLIPPERS
S: If they can't move up to get Bayless or Mayo, they will look between Gordon and Westbrook, if available. Westbrook brings a local audience and great D, but Gordon would be fine. As long as they have guard depth, they're heading the right way. The bigger concern is signing Elton Brand (or not) and getting Shaun Livingston healthy.

P: Eric Gordon. No one else is left here.

# 8 MILWAUKEE
S: If Golden State offers Brandan Wright and the 14th pick for Yi, I do that in a second. Then I take Gallinari. If they want to just add one guy, it's a tough call. They might look at Westbrook if they are going to trade Redd or Mo Williams. They should go with Joe Alexander. Originally, his only problem was that no one knew much about him and this seemed too high to take him. But now he's moving up fast, so they won't feel as bad. He gives them a nice mix of shooting and athleticism at the three.

P: Alexander, unless they've got some major trades in mind.

# 9 CHARLOTTE
S: They need a center, but that center should have some shooting ability. Love, if he drops, is a nice fit. Brook Lopez has been getting dissed, but at this pick, he's a steal. They've been heard to like Westbrook, but even though they need a backup point, they need another big guy much more. Also, they will apparently have the # 20 pick now. That ought to find them guard help.

P: Brook Lopez.

# 10 NEW JERSEY
S: They have a plan in place. First off, I'd try anything to make that deal with Denver to get Carmelo. If they have him and no one else in three years, they'll be in good shape to entice LeBron. I'd give Denver everything, even Devin Harris.

As the roster looks now, I would go for Randolph if he drops. Same with Love. Without those two, I would probably move onto DeAndre Jordan, Darell Arthur, and Marreese Speights. I like Speights the most there, although Arthur would fit in with the current team.

But it seems now like they're very intent on trading Richard Jefferson, since I hear his names in about 5 different trade rumors a day. So maybe they can fit Gallinari, as widely speculated.

P: Everyone seems to think this is where Gallinari goes, so I'll bite.

# 11 INDIANA
S: Everything I had ready went down the drain when the big trade was announced. Personally, I think they can do better. I'd rather have Ty Thomas and Kirk Hinrich. They were tired of JO being injured all the time, but Ford has had several big injury scares as well. He's a real point, but he can't shoot it that well.

So now, instead of targeting a point, they may want to gamble on another big man. Ike Digou showed some promise when they first got him, but he didn't do much last year. This is a nice time to take a swing on a project. If Randolph slips, they might have a steal in a few years.

P: Anthony Randolph is still there, and I think they gladly take the chance.

# 12 SACRAMENTO
S: They need a point or a four. Again, they'll be happy if Westbrook or Augustin is available. I doubt both slip.

If both are gone, they may look at Arthur, Jordan, or Speights. They've been rumored to like Roy Hibbert, and I think he'll actually have some value, but this seems too high. I'd go with Arthur then, unless Randolph is still around.

P: Augustin is here in my prediction. They'll be stoked. They may want to send a thank you note to Toronto for solving Indiana's point problem.

# 13 PORTLAND
S: They'll probably trade this pick, and that's smart. The only guy I could kinda like for them here is Alexander, but I doubt he'll be available. They have two early second rounders, a late first, and a big expiring contract in Raef LaFrentz. That should get something, with this.

I'd offer Memphis both first round picks, LaFrentz, Channing Frye, and Martell Webster in exchange for Mike Miller and Cardinal's death trap. That would make this team scary.

P: I had a strong feeling this is where DeAndre Jordan would go, but it wouldn't be Portland who did it. But he's been dropping hard. Maybe Phoenix trades up to make sure they get Rush.

In any case, this pick will be moved, so it's tough to tell. I can't know who will go here until the trade happens. But I think the pick with the most value here is Brandon Rush. Someone will grab him here.

# 14 GOLDEN STATE
S: I wouldn't make the Yi deal I said earlier because I like Wright as a real inside presence in their offense. I do think they can target Yi, though. If they can give up this pick, a future one, and agree to take on Gadzuric, then I would try that. If they can give up Wright and other people, but keep this pick, I would also do that and take Arthur or JaVale McGee.

If they keep the pick, they have interesting choices. Speights is a good scorer down low, but he might not have the conditioning they like. Jordan is another risky prospect, which hasn't worked out. Arthur is too much like Wright; they shouldn't have both. Kostas Koufos might be a good fit because he's a big who can run and shoot it fairly well. If they don't make any deals, I think he's the guy.

P: I think they will try to get Yi again, but as my predictions are going, I will pencil in Koufos here.

# 15 PHOENIX
S: I'd hope that Brandon Rush drops. In this case, he doesn't. If he's gone, I might trade this pick and Barbosa for a better wing.

If Augustin somehow slipped this far, and Rush was gone, however much I doubt it, I'd take him to ease Nash. He could even replace him in a few years. The problem here is that Rush might go at spot 13, depending who picks there.

I'd make this offer to Portland if they do pick Rush or someone else wants him at 13: Barbosa and # 15 for # 13 and Jarret Jack. That way, they could get Rush and also bring in a backup point whom the Blazers are iffy on. The Blazers would then have a quick guard to pair with Roy.

P: They trade up to get Rush. He just makes too much sense for them not to get him. I don't know who ends up with this pick in the long run, but I do think this is where people start taking gambles... so let's say DeAndre Jordan.

# 16 PHILLY
S: First off, I'd make a big offer to Elton Brand and hope the Clips give up. I hate to work this way, but they have a history of cheapness. As for this pick, they will likely look at Jordan, Arthur and Speights. If all are there, I like Speights. Arthur is more athletic and that would seem to fit them, but I think they want to find a big guy with some actual offense. Jordan just looks lost.

I wondered during the season if maybe they would think about taking Hibbert and pairing him up with Dalembert to give them tons of size. Hibbert is slow, but maybe that helps him if he's not the only big guy. Or maybe this would be terrible. I'm not sure. I've been reading a lot about Speights since most experts have targeted him for the Sixers, and I'm getting worried. David Thorpe has seen a lot of him and thinks he's a bust.

Of course, if he's the sorry note they use to take Brand, I feel much better.

P: Speights. I will cross my fingers that he's trying.

# 17 TORONTO *****
S: This pick is now supposedly going to Indiana as part of the big deal. I thought Toronto would be content to take Robin Lopez for depth here, but I give them credit. They traded an expensive backup they weren't going to use that much for a former all-star. Even if JO is washed up, they didn't really lose much, and he'll be a free agent again soon.

So for the Pacers, if they took a big man last time, they will go for a guard here. They seemed to have solved their point guard spot, but they need depth. Tinsley and Ford have injury history, and neither is a great shooter. Chalmers can shoot and play both guard spots. It's something.

P: Mario Chalmers.

# 18 WASHINGTON
S: They always seem to need big guys. Andray Blatche and Oleksiy Perechov are still up in the air. They will likely have a chance with McGee and Hibbert, maybe even Jordan and Speights. Hibbert is a hometown guy, which may help or hurt. They've certainly seen a lot of him. I like McGee because he has more upside, but Hibbert would be able to come off the bench and score down low.

P: Hibbert has been looking better lately, and he'd generate more fan interest than anyone you can get at this point. He can score down low, and they don't have that.

# 19 CLEVELAND
S: They should get a big guy who can score, because Varejao and Big Ben can't. Koufos is local and knows LeBron, but he may be gone. They'll likely pick from the same guys Washington did. I like Hibbert if he's here. He can play the half court. Arthur is more athletic but less refined. McGee might be too much of a question mark. Speights would be terrific but I think he won't be there.

One guy who I first thought might be too much of a reach but now isn't? Jason Thompson. He's big and can score. He played at a small school, but you can't overlook a 6-10 guy with skills. Plus, he's ready to play. They can't wait for prospects. Pending on who is available, I go Koufos, Speights, Hibbert, Thompson, Arthur, McGee.

P: In this case, it's Thompson.

# 20 DENVER ***** CHAR
S: To counteract New Jersey, I would certainly NOT trade Melo. He's worth too much. They have a good team; I see a few tweaks rather than a complete overhaul. They might want a tall point to play next to Iverson, and a big who can shoot.

Well, it looks now like they will not even try to grab anyone here. That's okay, no one stood out as a definite answer to them. This pick is heading to Charlotte, and they want a point guard bad. If Chalmers is still on the board, they made a good pick. If not.... I'm not sure where they head. They'll probably grab another big guy and hope free agency nets them something.

P: Without Chalmers, they take a crack at French big man Alexis Ajinca. He's the anti-Lopez, unproven but athletic. Maybe it will all even out for them.

# 21 NEW JERSEY
S: Again, who knows if they pick here. This could easily be traded. If they stay, it depends on what they did with the tenth pick. If they didn't get a big there, they will now. If they did, they will go for depth on the perimeter. Most likely, they will choose amongst the big guys I've been talking about for the last few picks.

P: Well, I had them taking Gallinari earlier, so I guess they will go for Arthur here. They'd actually be really excited to get both. They'd even consider Arthur at 10.

# 22 ORLANDO
S: Depends on if they want to keep the small lineup or go big again. I think Van Gundy likes small ball if he can get better guards. They will look at Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas Roberts. They supposedly like Lee the best, and I have to agree. He's solid.

P: Courtney Lee

# 23 UTAH
S: Everyone says they need another big guy. Don't they already have Millsap off the bench, plus Jarron Collins, plus Fesenko - another huge prospect? But I guess they can't get any more wings after they did the last few years. I'd go with Chalmers if he's available. They don't have a true backup to Williams.

If he's gone, I suppose I take a look at big men. I guess it wouldn't hurt to add a defender. Now that Toronto's out, they could grab the other Lopez. He can come in and hurt people in the way Boozer and Okur won't.

P: Robin Lopez.

# 24 SEATTLE
S: If they keep this, they will probably go for an international post prospect, or a local project. I'd do the same.

If McGee or Jordan are available, it wouldn't hurt to take a look. They've already tried 4 big man projects in the past few years... fifth time's the charm? I think they need a true off guard who can shoot, not just throwing Durant there, but they have time for that later.

P: JaVale McGee

# 25 HOUSTON
S: They always seem to need power forwards, but that might be a reach here. Besides, they finally have some in Scola and Landry, while Steve Novak and Chuck Hayes are nice specialists. I hear they like Thompson or Ryan Anderson, but are they any better than those guys?

I think they should go for a wing, because there are none after McGrady and Battier. Donte Greene has slipped this far in my predictions because no one needed him before. They'd be delighted to get him.

P: Greene, which could be a steal.

# 26 SAN ANTONIO
S: They need to get younger on the wings. Usually, they'd go for an international big, but they have enough of those. They will look at who is available amongst Lee, Douglas-Roberts, Greene, Chalmers, and Nicolas Batum. If Batum is still there, he would fit in perfectly with what they do. He was talked about as a lottery pick in the past few years, so he might be a steal.

I hear they want Ryan Anderson, but is he any better than Matt Bonner? Or someone they could find for cheap in free agency?

P: Batum. Doesn't this sound exactly like the kind of thing that always happens to them?

# 27 PORTLAND
S: The Hornets gave up because they didn't think they could get a good player here. I thought they could probably land Douglas-Roberts or Lee, but they might not. I did say that if both of those guys were gone, I would trade out of the first round.

Portland is up to something. I don't know what, but they are. They can always go international.

P: Ante Tomic, another project they can stash or trade.

# 28 MEMPHIS
S: If they still have this pick, they should add some depth on the wing, if they took a big guy earlier. Any wing left would help, especially a two guard. Most mocks have them looking at J. J. Hickson, a raw four. Well, it can't hurt to stockpile big prospects.

It's hard to make a prediction without knowing if they will trade Miller. Why not look at college star CDR? He's not Derrick Rose, but he's familiar with fans.

P: Hickson. Everyone likes him here.

# 29 DETROIT
S: I'd look at the trade offers. I would probably do the Billups/Prince for Melo deal. I might trade 'Sheed if I had to.

What do they actually need in the draft? A true center who can score down low, but that's hard to find here. They were probably hoping earlier that people would sour on Hibbert, but that may not happen anymore. McGee, if he drops, is a Detroit native and a risky pick, but not so much at this stage.

If CDR slips this far, he's also a Detroit native who can play right away. As much as they need a big guy, he's local and the best guy on the board by far. He'd give them depth and might ease the burden of any trade.

P: Chris Douglas Roberts

# 30 BOSTON
S: They can always use another big guy, since P.J. will probably hang it up. Not right now, but eventually. That means international. They will likely take the best big guy left, which I think means whomever the other teams in the 20's don't take.

If Lee or Douglas-Roberts fell to them, they might sweep them up. They were scared about Tony Allen because of his poor shooting and handling. If any spot is a concern, it might be two guard.

Also, they could look at Ryan Anderson, who seems projected to go around here. He's a big man shooter in the vein of Steve Novak or Matt Bonner. He could fit.

P: Anderson. He's supposedly guaranteed to go in the first round, so he can't be any lower on the list. Let's hope he's worth more than Scalabrine.

...
...
And that does it for the first round. In the second round, I look for some sleepers who can do different things, like specialists. Anderson will be a target if he doesn't go in the first. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can D it up, even if he can't score. Kyle Weaver can shoot and play both guard spots. Bill Walker was once a top prospect, but got hurt. He could slip into the first if he looks better. Davon Jefferson came out too early, but he was rated high once. Joey Dorsey brings rebounding and energy, if nothing else. Trent Plaisted has decent offense for a big guy. All of these guys could be bench players if they work. I also look at internationals who will take a few years to develop.

The first five picks in the second round are: Minnesota, Seattle, Portland, Minnesota, LA Clippers, and Portland. This leads me to believe that Minnesota and Portland will be busy trading up. Or out.

But I guess we'll really find out tomorrow night.

finals thoughts, and the incredible shrinking beasley

2008-06-19T01:12:00.000-07:00

After a day joyously listening to the LA fans display anger and embarrassment, I had to think about just what happened. Not just in that game 6 blowout, but the whole series. I jumped on board the Lakers-can't-lose bandwagon, and I'm glad I was wrong, but I'm surprised to see people getting upset so quickly. This wasn't supposed to be a strong year for the Lakers; they spent all summer trying to satisfy Kobe and were never at full strength for the latter half of the season. They won one of the toughest conferences in recent memory despite new people and a large hole at center. They beat the Spurs and the Jazz without a huge front line. Now the fans want an overhaul?

Chill out, LA: you may look bad now, but if Bynum comes back, there's really not much to worry about. Gasol and Odom had to play bigger then they should in the finals, and Boston was the only team to really expose it. But if they have Bynum, Gasol only now has to worry about the 4, and Odom can go back out to the wing. That's a huge front line, as I've said before, and athletic. They can absolutely dominate with that big front line and Kobe in the back. Their main problems in the finals were rebounding and interior defense; Bynum helps to solve that. Adding him in makes them huge again and completely changes the opposition's defensive plans. I really think it's that simple for them.

Of course, people want an overhaul, and believe that they can get it for nothing (well, they did last year). There's no way the Lakers can or should do that. Odom, however, is going to be a free agent next year, so his contract might be attractive to other teams. I predicted that he would be out, because of that contract, when the Lakers were looking for trades to help Kobe. Maybe now the Lakers will take a quick look at what's available. I'd keep him for next year, unless something great comes up. He faded in this series, but if he gets to play more on the perimeter, and he's not the main focus, he does better. He had to play down low all the time and he was expected to take a lot of shots, and that's not his style. Bynum teamed with Gasol would allow him to take advantage of smaller wings and contribute on the boards as a slashing wing, not a true post player. Trust me, he's much more effective that way.

Bynum's health should be the key issue of the summer for them. Even if he comes back strong, though, they might want to look at a legitimate backup center who can board and mix it up inside (Desanga Diop? someone like that?). Other than that, I don't think they have to go crazy. I would trade Radmanovic or Walton, but I doubt other teams are that interested.

Anyway, it was nice to see Boston's guys get it, even if I can't have much sympathy for the franchise or the city right now. They're a likable bunch. Considering everything that's happened, I guess it's the best outcome. I feel for the Phoenix guys, but I can't think of any team besides the Sixers that I could really root for like the group Boston had.

------------------------------

Onto draft matters.... June is such a great month for hoops. Imagine if the NFL held their draft a week after the Super Bowl happened.

I'm getting worried by all the Beasley stories. I thought Chicago should just take him and forget about everything else. It was too simple. But now, in light of his height revelation, I am starting to back off a little. It's not that I think he'll be a bust, but if he's not a legitimate four, his value goes way down. Bigger guys are harder to replace, and if his real position is the three, he's just not as attractive, even though I'm fairly convinced he can score 20 a night from day one. It would kinda kill what Chicago needs, and Miami already has Marion and Haslem. They can't go that small with all three. So if he's projected as a small forward - which he was by scouts at the beginning of the season - I don't really know if he should be the first pick. The Bulls know Rose will be a solid true point. If they don't know if Beasley will be a solid true PF, maybe that makes it easier for them.

Of course, he'll have plenty of suitors. Miami could deal the pick to Memphis, to get some players and the fifth pick to get Mayo, but then the Wolves could deal the next pick to other teams who also want Mayo. I'm thinking that if Miami wants Mayo more than Beasley, but knows that Mayo won't slip past three or four, then they'll probably just have to accept Minnesota's offer. The Wolves could give Ryan Gomes, who'd be a nice sixth man, and they have two early second round picks. It's something. Miami gets the guy they want and some extra pieces for depth. Minnesota has a tough tandem with Jefferson and Beasley, and they have the time to figure out which positions those guys should play.

I don't know why Memphis likes Kevin Love at # 5. They could trade down, package that with all their extra pieces for an established star, or go for someone with more promise like Anthony Randolph. Love and Darko together? That's not going anywhere.

This is going to be a great week. There's so many potential moves. Right now, if I had to do a mock (and I love doing these), here's my idea:

1. Bulls - Derrick Rose
2. Wolves (trade) - Michael Beasley
3. Heat (trade) - O.J. Mayo
4. Sonics - Jarryd Bayless
5. Grizzlies - Anthony Randolph (just think about it, please, or fold the team)
6. Knicks - Russell Westbrook
7. Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Bucks - Joe Alexander
9. Bobcats - Brook Lopez
10. Nets - Kevin Love
11. Pacers - D.J. Augustin
12. Kings - Danilo Gallinari (surprised he drops, but he doesn't fit in NJ and they can play him next to Artest for now)
13. Blazers - DeAndre Jordan (they'll trade this to someone)
14. Warriors - Donte Greene
15. Suns - Brandon Rush (if he's gone, they may make some trades)
16. Sixers - Marreese Speights
17. Raptors - Robin Lopez
18. Wizards - Roy Hibbert
19. Cavs - Kostas Koufos
20. Nuggets - JaVale McGee
21. Nets - Darell Arthur
22. Magic - Courtney Lee
23. Jazz - Nicolas Batum
24. Sonics - Serge Ibaka
25. Rockets - Jason Thompson
26. Spurs - Mario Chalmers
27. Hornets - Chris Douglas-Roberts
28. Grizzlies - J.J. Hickson
29. Pistons - Alex Anjia
30. Celtics - Nathan Jawal

well, thanks for stopping by

2008-06-17T21:53:00.000-07:00

Good job, LA.

not so fast, comrades

2008-06-12T15:19:00.000-07:00

After 3 games, the finals present some interesting subplots. The Celtics are beating up on the Lakers inside, and Kobe looks pissed. I don't think he wanted to be selfish and take 50 shots a game, but now he might have to. Gasol and Odom are disappearing, and only spurts by Vujacic and Radmanovic shooting have helped them at all. Despite everyone in the entire basketball-watching world knowing that the Lakers would come out fired up for game 3, and get more calls going their way, they really didn't play great until the late going. Boston hung in there despite their big guns having off nights. Now I can see them winning a game in LA, which I highly doubted before the series started. Add that to the first two games, and I'm really wondering about the Lakers' chances.

The Lakers did make some nice moves by attacking more and having Kobe guard Rondo, who doesn't shoot a lot outside, but the Celts can counter this by playing House more (which, um, they should have been doing anyway). Pierce is still mysteriously guarded about his injury, so who knows. But even though the Lakers won last night, I'm very impressed by the Celtics. Of course, maybe the Lakers will put it together. And if Odom and Radman aren't doing anything, they should think about Ariza more. He can play D.

Some league-wide thoughts...

The Donaghy scandal took a sharp turn yesterday. I don't know if he's honest, but I always thought the Kings got a raw deal. Of course, so do lots of people. But still, he's waited to make these allegations 6 years after it happened and several months after he was arrested. To do it now shows he's more interested in saying F you to Stern than he is about being honest. He really wanted to stick the knife in his back.... if he had said this when he was first arrested, I might have believed him more. He needs proof before anything can really happen. But Stern looked extra pissed in his comments. I hope there's nothing going on.

I've been thinking about the draft and the different options Chicago (and thus Miami) have. Chicago doesn't need to start over, just move a few guys. Miami does. So when I heard about the trade rumors, I started thinking. I said the Bulls needed to take Beasley because it's hard to find a good big man, and they built their team up around a post player that they just don't have. Also, it's easy for them to move Gooden and Ty Thomas - really easy - to make room for Beasley, but it's nearly impossible to move Hinrich and Hughes to make room for Rose. So if Miami is really willing to deal Wade to move up, they can both benefit from this.

Here's how it could work - along with the right to switch picks, Miami gives up Wade and Udonis Haslem, who is solid but won't help them rebuild. Chicago sends them Gooden (cap filler), Thomas, and Ben Gordon (signed to a deal first). Now look at the potential lineups - Chciago has Noah, Beasley, Deng, Hinrich, and Wade, with Nocioni, Haslem, and Hughes coming off the bench. Miami has Gooden, Thomas, Marion, Rose, and Gordon, without a real center, but that's a fun team to watch. Plus, they can evaluate and will probably have a high pick next year.

I just keep thinking about styles and how people will mesh. Wade dominates the ball, which is why I'm so curious about the Heat initially wanting Rose. I don't know if they fit together. You need a shooter alongside Wade, which might be why the Heat are looking at O. J. Mayo now. He fits with Wade. This trade would create some nice backcourts: Wade would relieve Hinrich of ball handling pressure, and Hinrich could focus more on D and hitting jumpers, which is more his thing. Rose would have the ball in his hand and be flanked by up-tempo players who could fit a good running scheme (Marion, Thomas, Gordon raining outside jumpers). With Beasley inside, and Wade outside, Deng and Hinrich only have to be supporting players, and I think Chicago would be fantastic. That's a devastating offense if they work together. Miami would give up a lot, but then they'd have an exciting team to watch and only one more guy to find. I like this. I like it a lot. Even if the Heat aren't planning on keeping Marion, maybe they can get the Bulls to throw in Deng or Nocioni.

I was really pushing this upon the news of Doug Collins coming back to the Bulls, as he plays slow, half-cort sets. But that's not happening now. I still like it.

If Chicago still takes Rose anyway, that could set off some other stuff. I don't think they can trade Hinrich easily, but I did suggest in my trade deadline column that they might consider sending him and some big guys to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal. Who knows if JO will be healthy again, but it would solve their problems of lacking a dominant big man and finding a taker for Hinrich. If Indiana can get Eric Gordon in the draft, and pair him with Hinrich, that might work. They can get Thomas to be the new PF, and they also might want to give Ike Diogu more minutes. This is a possibility.

Miami would then go after Mayo, since they're not high on Beasley and O.J. fits well with Wade. They could trade down, and I think Memphis would be smart to offer some pieces. Miami would take Mike Miller and/ or Kyle Lowry any day, if that works, and then hope to get Mayo at number five. Maybe they could send something to Minnesota in hopes that the Wolves do not take Mayo.... maybe they take back Antoine Walker's contract? That might help, if that's possible. I can't calculate it right now, but they might work out some sort of agreement. This would help each team.

I guess we'll just have to see in a few weeks.

Lakers vs. Celtics and the NBA Playoffs

2008-06-05T02:10:00.000-07:00

Ahhhh, yes. I remember the first real basketball game I got for Genesis, Electronic Arts' first foyer into sports gaming (I think). They named it after the two classic franchises who had battled so much, even though the year it came out, the finals actually featured Detroit beating Portand. In their defense, that would've sounded so much lamer. Also, the Lakers and Celtics were seen as the great rivals, even though they only met 3 times in the 80's, although they did account for 8 titles and one of them was in the finals every year. In any case, EA wanted to make their debut by paying homage, and it's a nice touch for a maker whose games have really been a part of my life.

That's just one of the 50 million nostalgic stories that are circulating this week. It's my personal favorite aspect of that nostalgia, but I must admit that I'm kinda disappointed. I know I should be happy for the league and excited that ratings will be high and I won't be so mocked for loving basketball. I see everyone jumping on board and that's cool.... but I'm also a little dismayed by how things came to be.

I always hate to see LA and New York get all the attention and have things handed to them at times. Maybe now I should throw Boston in there as well. Yes, I'm still fuming a little over the Gasol trade. I don't hate the Lakers, and I don't hate Kobe (my MVP vote, even if it means nothing, was all for him), but I don't feel like they really deserved that. They should have suffered for the Shaq deal and the subsequent Kwame deal, but then it all magically turned better for them. Being out here, I here from fans that it was just a right of life; that they expected it, and that it was just another good thing to happen to them. Everyone else was furious. Remember this.

As for the Celtics, their trades weren't nearly as one-sided, and they gave up some young guys, but they're still a strange team. They're thrown together oddly, like the '97 Florida Marlins, as a mixture of vets looking for a title with a few key draftees who step up. I like all their guys, actually, but I don't feel like this is a real Celtics team. It could have been any team that had the right pieces and used them, but of course it was the team with the most titles in history. I'd feel better if it was some place tortured, like Cleveland or Indiana.... umm, maybe Philly... just saying.... but no, it's Boston. Again.

So I don't really have any rooting interest. I guess I would root for the Celtics because I like their individual guys, but they're getting awfully spoiled in Boston. I know the Celtics have been terrible for a while, unlike the Pats and Sawx, but they're still the most successful franchise in league history. I don't feel anything for the Lakers for that trade, and also for the fact that I know they're going to be good the next few years - even better, in fact, with Andrew Bynum coming back. I didn't think they could make it this far without him and they did, so what will they do next year?

Who do I like? I think I hate everyone. I'm from Philly, so that's okay.

What is my actual prediction? Let's break this down:

BOS DEF: The Celtics played defense when it counted. They can shut down big guys and point guards, but they struggle with wings. This might be why they didn't dominate early in the playoffs - Atlanta was all young wings, Cleveland survived only on LeBron. They just didn't match up well. Detroit needed a big series from Sheed and didn't get it, and Garnett helped that. Billups was hurt, but Rondo is also doing good. The only guy that really killed Boston was Rip Hamilton, but that was enough.

Well, the Lakers have the best wing in the league, and they don't offer much at point guard, so that doesn't really help the Celts at all. I'm interested to see how Boston matches up down low - Perkins and KG have been great on D, but if the Lakers keep their smaller lineups, one of them is going to have to face Odom or Radmanovic. I think Garnett is versatile enough to do that, but it pulls him away from the basket. Gasol can do that too with his midrange game, so maybe LA will stay out of the paint.

Interestingly, when these teams met this season, the Celts basically let Kobe open a lot outside and dared him to shoot every time. It worked, as he shot a lot, but didn't get others involved, they won both games. But the Spurs just tried to do the same thing, and it didn't work for them. If Ray Allen isn't making shots, I think they have to use Posey. Even if he is, they probably want to make Kobe work a little bit.

The Celts' D is good, but they're in for a tough battle because....

LA O: They're rolling. They can all shoot, and Kobe is dying to prove himself. I think Gasol is a little too outside for Perkins, and Odom can be all over the place. He's my choice as the biggest X factor in this series. He can take advantage of Pierce if he wants to. The Celts will try to be physical, but the Lakers have rolled over the Spurs and Jazz, who have bigger frontlines and usually knock people around.

BOS O / LA DEF: The Celts are good, but if Ray isn't hitting shots, they're in trouble. Garnett needs to step up big here, but it's not his tendency. Pierce can probably go off on anyone, but he'll be matched by Kobe. The Lakers are weak on both ends at the point, so Rondo could have some big games, but he's not a scorer. The Celts should watch when the subs are in. Jordan Farmar is struggling and they could get Eddie House some open looks.

The Lakers will try to minimize the size advantage by playing small and fast and just outscoring the Celtics. Kobe, determined more than ever, might have some good looks on Pierce, but probably he'll stick Allen and just watch his shots. The Celts might try to abuse them down low with depth, by bringing in P. J. Brown, Leon Powe and Big Baby, while the Lakers only have Turiaf on their bench. If Odom, Gasol, or Turiaf gets in foul trouble, that could help the Celts big time.

Bottom line, the Lakers have more weapons and match up well. This is a nice matchup in that one team relying strongly on offense will go against one relying on D. I just don't think Boston's strengths match with the Lakers' weaknesses. The Lakers scored a ton against the Spurs, who have been great defensively for a long time. The Celtics can't match that firepower if the games are high-scoring. If Ray catches fire and Garnett plays like he should, the Celtics could pull it out. I just don't see it.

Lakers in 6.

and then there were four (and a complete lottery)

2008-05-20T17:26:00.000-07:00

Some thoughts on the conference finals:

New Orleans has nothing to really fret about. They made it a lot further than I expected, and they scared the crap out of the Spurs. Who saw that coming before the season? I thought they were only an off guard away, but the way Jannero Pargo played in these playoffs shocked everyone. Their crunch time line up is pretty close to owning.

I'd say the same thing about the Lakers, even though they won. I think they can beat the Spurs, but again, without Bynum, they're in trouble defensively. Then again, if the Spurs struggled with the Hornets, how will they handle the Lakers? This is tough to gauge.

Spurs in 6, but I don't have much faith in that.

The Cavs-Celtics series intrigued me on a couple levels. I remember thinking Ray Allen was stupid years ago for coming back to Seattle for lots of cash instead of going to Cleveland to form a tandem with LeBron. Now, I don't know. He's slowing down and he might be more of a problem soon. Not that Larry Hughes was a good choice, at all, but they might not want Allen now.... or maybe they would, because then Boston would never have made themselves into a contender. Weird how fate brought them back together.

Also, they almost had Delonte West kill them, which would have been painful.

I'm wondering now how Cleveland moves forward. The look they had at the end of the year was reminiscent of the Iverson 76ers: one guy scores 40, you hope other people chip in enough to get 90, and play good defense. That doesn't sound good when LeBron is constantly questioned about his future. But they also have enough expiring contracts next year to maybe make a move.

Also, if rumors are true about the Nuggets shopping Melo to the Nets, they have to act soon. LeBron going to the Nets is already played out, but if they could somehow get him and Melo on the same team.... well, that's not even fair, is it?

As for this series, it seems like Detroit is the easy pick, but never doubt how the good name teams get... ummm... certain advantages. Plus, I want to see Boston make it with the worst possible record, making them the reverse Patriots.

Celtics in 7, and I don't have much faith in this either.

In other news, the lottery was today. Actually just watched it. Conspiracists may or may not point to the Bulls and their not-that-bad record, or that the top two teams were in the East, but hey, at least the Knicks didn't move up. In the race of Michael Beasley vs. Derrick Rose for top pick, I think this means that Beasley is now the top choice, despite Rose being from Chicago. They'd have to move Kirk Hinrich to take Rose, and they still need someone inside who can actually score. If they make Beasley the new center of the offense, and now Loul Deng and Ben Gordon can be supporting players, doesn't that make them what they wanted to be? They could turn it around fast with a new coach and some moves (don't know if they can dump Larry Hughes, but Drew Gooden and Gordon can be had).

Miami will gladly take Rose. That's a nice backcourt to rebuild around. The Wolves will be okay with probably O.J. Mayo, the Grizzlies (eternally disappointed) will make do with Brook Lopez, and the Sonics, Knicks, and Clippers will fight over guards. Eric Gordon, Jarryd Bayless, and Russell Westbrook are all combo guards who haven't quite proven themselves at the point, but those teams all need it, especially the Knicks.

After that? I don't know yet. But the top seven are pretty important.

revised playoff picks

2008-04-30T01:11:00.000-07:00

Yipes. What is going on here? Basketball in Atlanta is suddenly alive again, if it ever was. The Lakers had little trouble adjusting to the mountains. The Hornets, whom (like many) I didn't expect much out of, would not let the Mavs get close.

And then there are the two series I really didn't see coming - Spurs v Suns and Sixers v Pistons. Much like last year, I was ready to bet that the winner of a Spurs-Suns series would take it all. After an epic game 1, it looked like this would come down to seven intense battles. But even though the Suns were close, they never really got over that, and suddenly, they're done.

The Sixers, meanwhile, stole the first game with no real explanation, then got the third one at home to go up. Improbably, they were up big in game 4 and looking to get Detroit in the death zone when the Pistons finally woke up. Now, Detroit seems to be attentive and in control, after a big win tonight. But still, the hometowners are making a statement, and they are closer to being good again than we imagined.

So now what? Half of my finals prediction is trash, and I'm not feeling so certain about anything else. The Hornets, Magic and the Lakers have impressed me so much, while the Jazz and Pistons are struggling. And the Celtics? Tsk, tsk.

Well, here's my new call for the next rounds:

BOS over CLE in 7

DET over ORL in 7

SAN over NO in 6

LAL over UT in 7

SAN over LAL in 6

BOS over DET in 6

BOS over SAN in 7

Yeah... I don't like it, and I think the possibility of a retro Celtics-Lakers finals is rising everyday, but I am sticking to my belief that no Andrew Bynum is going to kill them at some point. It would kill them against Utah if the Jazz had anyone who could remotely stay with Kobe. That series will be good, but I can't see the Jazz taking any road games.

I've been moving towards the Celtics for a while, and naturally, they look angry and confused now. I think they will pull out of it.... and I think Detroit is way too unfocused for such a veteran team. I don't think the Spurs will have enough to repeat after that brutal road. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to the Lakers or maybe even Hornets.

This could all change shortly.......

the 2007-08 NBA awards

2008-04-25T01:20:00.000-07:00

As promised, my awards for a stunning and fantastic regular season. All of these were tough and I was delighted with the great play this year.

MOST IMPROVED - Hedo Turkoglu, Magic

2. Jose Calderon, Raptors
3. Louis Williams, Sixers
4. Linus Kleiza, Nuggets
5. Sasha Vujacic, Lakers

Turkoglu is an easy choice as someone who really stepped it up this season. He started out with promise in Sacramento, but never was more than a decent sub. When Orlando signed Rashard Lewis, it seemed like he would come off the bench or be a distant third option. But he was huge for them, and it was his play from outside that really helped Dwight Howard make that team decent.

Calderon did a lot after T. J. Ford went down, showing maybe he should be the guy in charge. Williams came on as a terror on a surprisingly good second unit for the Sixers. Kleiza found a nieche in Denver, so much that they wouldn't include him in any deals for Ron Artest. Vujacic redeemed himself after a few years of pretty much nothing for the Lakers, and filled in nicely with Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza out.

6TH MAN - Manu Ginobli, Spurs

2. Jason Terry, Mavs
3. Leandro Barbosa, Suns
4. James Posey, Celtics
5. Jason Maxiell, Pistons

This is another easy choice as Ginobli is an all-star but likes to come off the bench for San Antonio. He carried this team at points and is good enough to be on a high all-league team. Terry does well in small lineups in Dallas, with Kidd now handing off to him. Barbosa, last year's winner, slipped a little bit in numbers but is still crucial for them. Posey was a bargain save for the Celtics after their big three left them no money for a bench. He pretty much kept that second unit together until they brought in more people. Maxiell is the only real low-post presence for the Pistons, and he's key to their success.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Kevin Garnett, Celtics

2. Marcus Camby, Nuggets
3. Shane Battier, Rockets
3. Bruce Bowen, Spurs
5. Rajon Rondo, Celtics

Everyone is going for Garnett now because of his impact on the Celtics, and also because they want to recognize him in a year that would get MVP many seasons, but not now. He's never won it, either, so he's got sentiment. Normally I wouldn't, but I have to admit that he has transformed this team. Their defense has been the strength of their turnaround, and it's mostly due to his intensity. Also, no one else has risen up.

Camby, last year's winner, loses points because his team can't guard anyone (even though people were trying to say that they did because they play so fast.... well, the Lakers are exposing them). Battier and Bowen are great wing defenders, and Rondo is another factor for Boston because of his long arms and quickness.

ALL DEFENSE FIRST TEAM

Garnett, Camby, Battier, Rondo, Bowen

ALL DEFENSE SECOND TEAM

Ron Artest, Kings
Josh Smith, Hawks
Dwight Howard, Magic
Chris Paul, Hornets
Quintin Ross, Clippers

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Kevin Durant, Sonics

2. Al Horford, Hawks
3. Al Thornton, Clippers

I'm only putting three because there's no one else. In fact, it's mostly a two man race. Horford has put up a double-double and been the only big man for the Hawks, who are in the playoffs, so he has a lot going for him. But Durant is better. People are turning on him because he takes a lot of bad shots and his team is horrible. But for all the drama going on in the great city of Seattle, and the terrible team he's been dealt, I think he's handled it pretty well. Sure, he gets a lot of shots, but why not? Who else is going to score for this team? Any rookie that can average 20 a game has to be a major candidate, no matter what. Few guys can get to that level anymore. He's the first option already and he's scored because he has to. Look at how few rookies have gotten to that mark over the past decade. I give him the edge, but I do appreciate Horford's play.

ALL ROOKIE FIRST TEAM

Durant, Horford, Thornton
Luis Scola, Rockets
Juan Carlos Navarro, Grizzlies

ALL ROOKIE SECOND TEAM

Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Jeff Green, Sonics
Carl Landry, Rockets
Thaddeous Young, Sixers
Jamario Moon, Raptors

COACH OF THE YEAR - Byron Scott, Hornets

2. Stan Van Gundy, Magic
3. Maurice Cheeks, Sixers
4. Doc Rivers, Celtics
5. Rick Adelman, Rockets

Remember when I said that the Hornets and Grizzlies would be in the hunt for the last few playoff spots, and I thought the Grizzlies had a slight edge? Yup. I feel stupid. It's not a huge surprise that the Hornets broke through to the playoffs, but to flirt with the best record in the conference? When the conference is as tough as ever? No one saw that. Even at the all-star break, most figured they would slow down. They didn't. Chris Paul obviously gets a lot of credit, but I think Scott did a great job with a roster that has some holes. They surprised everyone the most and he should win this easily.

Van Gundy made the most of a second chance and created just the right offense for their talents. Cheeks, whom I thought was brought in to be loyal to the organization as they went through rough times, managed to get a lot out of this unknown squad. I couldn't be prouder of him, no matter how they do this round. Rivers won't get much credit for the Cletics' turnaround, but he hasn't ruined anything yet. Adelman managed to win more games than Jeff Van Gundy did, even with the usual injuries still haunting Houston, and a dramatic change of style.

MVP - Kobe Bryant, Lakers

2. Chris Paul, Hornets
3. LeBron James, Cavaliers
4. Kevin Garnett, Celtics

I can't believe I'm writing this, because I'm tired of all the Kobe-fawning the media have displayed over the past few years out here, but I like him. It may have been a terrible thing, but his tirades lit a fire under this team and he wisely came back and bought into them. Yes, this roster has improved a lot over the past year, but then he also carried this team with Bynum missing a lot of time, and Gasol out in some spots too. I think about this: before the Gasol trade, Bynum was giving them some offense and a lot of D. Then he got hurt. They still played fairly well. Then they traded for Gasol, who gave them good offense but not a ton of D. They never had both of these guys on the court at the same time to complement each other. They went through changes and had more injuries than people realize. They made a lot of lineup changes. Through it all, though, Kobe stayed vicious and they won 57 games in a ridiculously tough conference. I think that counts as something.

In any other year, Paul might have gotten it. Actually, so would have LeBron, and he's gonna be third despite an unfathomable stat line. Paul is just a hair under Kobe for keeping a team no one expected to be great. As Bill Simmons, John Hollinger, and others have said, he might be having the best season of any point guard ever. He controls everything there and sets everyone up. David West and Tyson Chandler owe their surges to him. That roster doesn't look impressive, but he carried them to more wins than they've ever had, in a tough year. The only thing holding him back? I don't know how far he can go in the playoffs, whereas I expect the Lakers to do something (and dominate the next few years as well). If he proves himself now, (he's off to a good start), he might change my mind.

LeBron's unbelievable season loses a lot for his team not being that great in the weaker half, but he could still go off in the playoffs and scare everyone. Garnett, for as much as he has done, just can't compete with these great seasons. He's not even the person to fear most for opponents offensively on his own team. He's already got an MVP, so I think he'll be okay, especially if he gets the ring.

Think about it this way: if the Lakers had traded Kobe for, say, Ben Wallace, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, and Ben Gordon, how terrible would they be? Terrible. Beyond terrible. They would be the first-half Bulls without Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng... and look how the Bulls turned out. If the Hornets didn't have Paul, they would probably be awful, but pending on what point guard they had. The Cavs would obviously suck without LeBron because they built the whole team around him, but they only won 45 games with him. The Celtics, meanwhile, would probably still be decent if they hadn't made the KG trade - not great, but a playoff team with Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes helping the guys they have now. Does this make any sense? I don't know. But I think the scenarios of people not being there favors Kobe.

It's not sentiment or a lifetime achievement award; I just think he's broken through. I hope that's enough. If not, well, there are three other guys I can accept. This is a great year and they all deserve recognition.

One note for my all league team: I couldn't decide between Duncan and Howard as my starting center. Both were so good, and Duncan is usually listed as a forward, but I put him in at center all the time. I decided to go with both. It's a good year. We can have 6 people on the first team. This also means that we don't have 3 east guys and 2 west guys, which seemed a little unfair.

ALL NBA FIRST TEAM

Kobe, Paul, LeBron, Garnett
Dwight Howard, Magic
Tim Duncan, Spurs

ALL NBA SECOND TEAM

Carlos Boozer, Jazz
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs
Amare Stoudemire, Suns
Steve Nash, Suns
Chuancey Billups, Pistons

ALL NBA THIRD TEAM

Paul Pierce, Celtics
Tracy McGrady, Rockets
Chris Bosh, Raptors
Allen Iverson, Nuggets
Manu Ginobli, Spurs

HONORABLE MENTION

Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
Antawn Jamison, Wizards

That's all. More playoff notes coming soon.

this is the end

2008-04-18T14:50:00.000-07:00

The end of the season came, and it didn't get any less crazy. I hate to see Phoenix and San Antonio battle it out in the first round, with the top half of the West bracket looking kinda weak. BUt that's how it is. So here are my picks (awards coming later).....

FIRST ROUND WEST

Lakers over Denver in 6

Jazz over Rockets in 7

Suns over Spurs in 7

Hornets over Mavs in 7

EAST

Celtics over Hawks in 4

Cavs over Wizards in 7

Magic over Raptors in 7

Pistons over Sixers in 5

SECOND ROUND WEST

Lakers over Jazz in 7

Suns over Hornets in 6

EAST

Celtics over Cavs in 6

Pistons over Magic in 6

CONF FINALS

Suns over Lakers in 6

Pistons over Celtics in 7

FINALS

Suns over Pistons in 6

Yeah. I picked it before the season, and I'm sticking with it. I think the Celtics will probably win it all now, but I'm not gonna change it. Besides, who reads this?

of course

2008-04-01T00:23:00.000-07:00

Of course this is the year that all # 1 seeds make it.

Of course.

Forget everything I said. Again.

I'm not even sure if UNC - UCLA is happening now. Memphis looks damn good.

Quick note for the pros circuit: I explained why lowly East teams didn't have much to play for, except for Atlanta, but I never thought about the good news for West teams. Portland would have liked to make the playoffs, but they'll take the 13th pick and use it (Stephen Curry? think about it...).

As I pointed out, the East teams in the lottery will almost certainly all be picking in the top 11. The difference between 8th and 9th seed is three spots. But look out west, where three teams are struggling to get in. The difference between the 8th and 9th seed? A whopping seven spots. The last team out in the west will pick 14th, but the last team in will probably be picking at 21 or 22. I know none of these three teams wants to miss the playoffs, but that's a nice consolation prize.

Now, Golden State and Denver have a lot of young talent and might be psychologically hurt by not making it, especially when they know they could wreak havoc as low seeds. For Dallas, it would be a disaster after the whole Kidd trade.... but wouldn't it be appropriate? This team needs a kick in the ass, and maybe this would be it. Dallas misses the playoffs and Avery might realize he needs to adjust some things. It would put pressure on them, but they need it. They can always blame Dirk's injury if that makes you feel better, Dallasites (Dallasans? Dallasers?).

They made a sly move in having their draft pick lottery-protected this year in case of emergency. They keep it now if they miss the playoffs. Would you rather have a first round loss and a summer of infighting, or a decent pick (that could be traded or used on a shooter) in the late lottery? Nothing short of a finals appearance will stop the turmoil, and it ain't gonna happen. I know Dallas would never think this way, but they might take a mulligan here.

I'm rooting hard for them to be the odd one out... I don't need to see Kidd hoisting ugly shots and glaring at Avery while they get blown out by San Antonio, when I could have G State or Denver bringing much more excitement. I'm sorry, Cuban, but someone had to go and it's you.

HIBBERT!!!!

2008-03-26T15:42:00.000-07:00

Yeah, my new bracket plan didn't quite work, but I was on the right track. I decided to base my picks on whom I did NOT like, and I was on the right track. Unfortunately, I decided Georgetown was the least-hateable team in their bracket, but I still hated them, and I really should have seen the Davidson upset coming (the fact that they're darlings scared me off). I should have trusted my gut... of hate.

Two things to emphasize:

1. If you don't like a high seeded team, don't put too much stock in them. Georgetown lost, Duke lost (I had that), Tennessee nearly lost (I knew Butler could take them, and they really should have), and Stanford had to pull everything out to squeak by. I also didn't like UConn or Drake that much, so I should've seen a busted bracket there. Which leads me to my second point....

2. Mid majors who have an excellent season and get a decent seed tend to flame out early. My theory is that they are much better off a s low seeded giant killers, and actually getting a decent seed creates pressure. Remember, a few years ago, Gonzaga made a couple nice runs as a low seed, but then when they finally got some recognition from the committee, they lost early. The only team that did anything with a decent seed was the '06 team with Morrison and Turiaf, which was really too talented to be a cinderella (much like Memphis is). And they only made it to the sweet 16. Nope, mid-majors just can't have a decent seed (6 or above) and live up to it. They need to surprise.

That's why I was feeling very doubtful about Drake, and lo and behold, they lost to Western Kentucky, which had that darling 12 seed. Sometimes, I think I'd rather be a 12 seed than a 5. Honestly.

So I got 9 out of 16. It's something. And, I still have 3 out of 4 for the last 4, but I'm wondering if maybe Kansas has gotten over their choke problems and will make it now. Wisconsin, Davidson, and Villanova? They have to be the best there.... but I can see Nova making it tough.... hmm....

We will see.

------0

Some random NBA notes while I'm here:

The Sixers' streak didn't end with my jinxing. In fact, they've been one of the best teams in the league for the past few weeks. WTF????? I'm thoroughly enjoying this now. Considering how the other teams plodding for the 8th spot are doing, they are now not only in, but an easy pick to make it. Unbelievable. Get Mo an extension; I think he could sneak away with a few COY votes.

Without much time left, I'm finding it near impossible to make any serious predictions. I'm leaning towards Boston over Phoenix, but that changes everyday. I still like the Pistons, especially the way the pro brackets are going. I have no answer for the West yet - I thought there would be some seperation, but clearly, this is going to come down to the last day of the regular season.

The Lakers beating Dallas, Utah (in SL), and Golden State last week while the Cavs floundered may have pushed Kobe head of LeBron in many eyes, including mine. But then what about Chris Paul? I think Kobe wins because voters know they'll have plenty of chances to vote for Paul and LBJ over the next few years, and he's got extra fire this year. But for me, it's almost a three way tie right now.

That is all.

bracketology '08

2008-03-19T03:00:00.000-07:00

Yes, it's bracket time. I know I haven't wrote much (er, anything) on college hoops this season, but I have been slowly paying more attention lately... mostly for prospects (i.e. freshman) but also getting a decent picture.

Then again, a decent picture is sometimes too much. People over-analyze and then the office pool goes to the secretary... or does it? The old cliche is true sometimes, but I've done okay in a few years. I've had some good calls (George Mason vs. Wichita State in the most improbable sweet sixteen in 2006; Florida over Duke in 2000; LSU over Duke in 2006) and a lot of misses. I think I can pick a decent bracket now based on one thing:

I know whom NOT to pick.

See, everyone wants to find the hot upstarts and cinderellas. That's hard. That requires a ton of luck. It's not always predictable to know who will get hot. BUT, I do think it is easy to spot high ranking teams with problems. Remember, it's very rare that more than two of the # 1 seeds make it to the final four. Usually, one does, but then you have a few from different spots. The 2 seeds can be good and bad. The rest of them all appear in random order.

I think the three best teams in this field are UNC, UCLA, and Kansas, and by a significant lead over others. I like them. But it's just mathematically unlikely that they all make it to San Antonio - and damn near impossible that Memphis does too. You say, they're all # 1 seeds for a reason! Yes, they are. They're the best. But I swear they aren't all gonna make it.

How did I pick some broken brackets that I managed to get right? By eliminating high seeds I didn't trust. In 2006, I think the high seeds in the East bracket were UNC, Tennessee and Michigan State, whom I both frowned upon. I saw George Mason and Wichita fully capable of pulling the upset, because I didn't like the look of those teams. I didn't put George Mason in the final four, but who did? This strategy has led me to call some good early round action, but it has left me on the dry for the late rounds. It's not full-proof.

I think now I will look at the tournament as who I hate the least. Maybe my pessimism will pay off this year. Unlike college football, this is a tournament - someone has to win. The process of elimination seems just as good as anything.

So here are my picks, and I'll explain my reasons for each segment:

EAST

Round 1 - UNC, Indiana, Notre Dame, Wash St, Oklhoma, Louisville, Butler, Tennessee

Round 2 (sweet sixteen) - UNC, Wash St, Oklahoma, Butler

Round 3 (regional finals) - UNC, Butler

UNC advances

I don't trust Tennessee because they're small and rely on shooting too much. If they go cold, they're done. I liked Washington State as a sleeper all year, but they have the same problem. UNC, when it has the top seed, has always been pretty good in the region. Last year, they lost in overtime in the regional final, but I think the last time before that when they didn't make it with a top seed was in 1994. They're one of the safe bets.

I don't really like anyone in the bottom half of that bracket. Louisville and UT look shaky as high seeds. Oklahoma could do some damage, but do they have guards? I like Butler. Mid-majors do better when they're seeded low.

MIDWEST

Round 1 - Knasas, UNLV, Villanova, Siena, USC, Wisconsin, Davidson, Gtown

Round 2 - Kansas, Nova, USC, Georgetown

Round 3 - Kansas, Georgetown

Georgetown advances

I really hate this bracket. Kansas is the best team by far, but they have a bad history of choking. I'm scared to pick them, but I don't love anyone else. I actually really like USC, but I could also see them losing in the first round. Wisconsin is okay. I can see Villanova in the sweet sixteen - one of the teams who barely got in always makes noise, espeically in the 5-12 game. Vanderbilt sucks if they're not at home. Georgetown is tough because they're not as good as last year, but I hate them the least out of all these people. Kansas State might be dangerous, but they have to face USC. Everyone is in love with Davidson as a sleeper, so I'm backing off them.

SOUTH

Round 1 - Memphis, Miss St, Mich St, Pitt, Kentucky, Stanford, Miami, Texas

Round 2 - Memphis, Pitt, Kentucky, Texas

Round 3 - Memphis, Texas

Texas advances

Memphis is another high seed with not enough size. I like how they play, but they've had good teams the past few years and haven't made the final four. I don't like Michigan State, and Pitt usually falls apart in the big tourney. I really don't like Stanford that much. I do like Kentucky; they've been playing well lately. Texas is my pick because they seem to be doing strangely better without Kevin Durant, and D.J. Augustin is playing well.

WEST

Round 1 - UCLA, Tex A&M, Drake, UConn, Baylor, Xavier, WVU, Duke

Round 2 - UCLA, Drake, Xavier, WVU

Round 3 - UCLA, Xavier

UCLA advances

UCLA is the one sure thing here, because no one else here looks that good. Xavier has a shot and I like them in the elite eight, but that's about it. I would like Drake, but as I said, mid-majors usually struggle when they get a decent seed. They're better off coming in low. But UConn doesn't really impress me either. Duke I could not hate more, and not just because they're Duke. They have NO inside game. You need one decent big man to make it in the tourney, no matter how good your guards are. WVU at least has a good history of upsets. Purdue? No dice. Sorry, Big Ten.

FINAL FOUR

UNC over G'town

UCLA over Texas

FINAL: UNC 70, UCLA 64

Yeah, I know, not an imaginative final. These are the two best teams, and I can't really find a good reason for UNC to lose. UCLA has some injury problems and I worry what they will do if any of their perimeter guys are out. Otherwise, they are great. I still don't like Georgetown here, but I can't think of who else to put.

------

AWARDS FOR COLLEGE

ALL AMERICA FIRST

Michael Beasley, KSU
Tyler Hansbrough, UNC (Player of the Year)
Kevin Love, UCLA
D. J. Augustin, Texas
Chris Lofton, Tennessee

SECOND

Brook Lopez, Stanford
Shan Foster, Vandy
Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis
Stephen Curry, Davidson

THIRD

Sam Young, Pitt
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Darrell Arthur, Kansas
DeMarcus Nelson, Duke
O.J. Mayo, USC

HM

Eric Gordon, Ind
D. J. White, Ind
Derrick Rose, Memphis
Jarryd Bayless, Arizona
Brandon Rush, Kansas
Derrick Low, Wash. St.
Sean Singletary, Virginia
Jaycee Carroll, Utah St.
Dionte Christmas, Temple

ALL FROSH

Beasley
Love
Mayo
D. Rose
E. Gordon
Bayless

COY: Keno Davis, Drake

tanks, but no tanks... or maybe?

2008-03-10T17:57:00.000-07:00

It's that time of year again.

While the college game is heating up (whoops, I guess I need to start paying attention to that for bracket busters), teams in the pro circuit face the stretch run. Aside from the wild playoff run in the west, which changes seemingly everyday (the Rockets are 3rd now???) there are a few teams in the east that are facing a slightly different challenge:

to tank or not to tank?

People have debated for years (notably Simmons) the merits and risks of mailing it in for the season. I write this now on the heels of two key events: the Sixers improbably making a playoff run and the Heat shutting down Dwyane Wade for the rest of the season (thanks, to you and Jermaine O'Neal, you were only the cornerstones of my fantasy team, it's okay, I still have John Salmons... jerks...). Two teams facing the challenge and taking opposite actions for it. How will this play out?

Actually, I don't think you can fault the Heat for this. They tried this year. They really did. They just failed miserably. They even made a late trade to give them veteran help (though, you could argue that anyone who trades for Ricky Davis is going for a disaster... maybe it was a conspiracy by Pat Riley all along?). Wade hasn't been playing great and they tried to win with him. They don't want him to get hurt for the long term, and they can't possibly make the playoffs. It's not pretty, but I think this is one of the more forgivable tank jobs. They do need to look at some young guys.

As for Pat Riley taking games off to scout.... umm.... shouldn't he resign as coach if he just wants to be the G.M.? It would be nice if he had a successor in place - oh wait, he did... three years ago, and then he pushed him off a cliff. Maybe we shouldn't forgive them.

Now, as for the hometown team, I openly campaigned for them to lose this year. And last year. I like Thaddeous Young, and he's been great.... but I'd still rather have Horford or Durant. This year, I thought they should dump Andre Miller for picks and young guys. But now? I'm getting on board. They're playing well, and they don't seem to have much competition for the last two spots. In fact, if they just go .500 from now on, they could make it easily. It's nice for a franchise that everyone thought was dead about a year ago.

But is it the best option? They look like they're having fun and raising the positive vibes in the city, which is always a good thing. There's even a distinct chance that they will make the playoffs and the Nuggets (with Iverson) won't, which might be seen as poetic justice if it didn't underscore just how unbalanced the conferences are. I can't blame them. They need some good news.

The rest of the teams in the East? Perhaps not. They all seem to be treading water. Atlanta is the only team that feels any pressure, because they don't have their pick, and they traded a lot for Bibby to win now. Chicago is in a weird state, Indiana has too many injuries, Charlotte has injuries and needs more people, and Jersey has to be thinking about the future without Kidd. Milwaukee needs an enforcer to be serious, and they need to maybe move some people (and hire Simmons to light a fire under this depressing franchise). Atlanta and Philly have the most to gain from making the playoffs, so I'd encourage the other teams to step aside.

[The sad thing about the east this year is that it's bad even when teams tried to be good. All those teams I just mentioned were not in rebuilding mode at the start of the season; they all wanted to make the playoffs. The Knicks and the Heat did, too. All of them would feel a little better with a playoff appearance, but none of them can seem to put anything together. Compare that to the west, where the bad teams at least knew they'd be bad and have young teams with plans for the future. This imbalance might be around for a while....]

So why tank this year? Because the west is so good, the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs could be worth three spots in the draft. We know that a very good team is getting shur out of the playoffs, like Denver or Golden State. It also appears that Sacramento and Portland are going to finish around .500. So, the last team out in the east will still get the 11th pick, most likely. In that cluster of teams, you might not think it matters who finishes where, but it could.

Right now, the 11 worst teams in order are the Heat, Wolves, Grizzlies, Sonics, Knicks, Clippers, Bucks, Pacers, Bobcats, Bulls, and Nets. After the Clippers, those last 5 teams are all within 3 games of each other. Why is this important? It's been a trend for years in the lottery that the worst team does not get the first pick - in fact, that rarely happens. Often, it's a team from the middle of the pack, like the 5th, 6th, or 7th worst team. Last year, none of the teams with the three worst records made it to the top three picks - Portland and Seattle lucked in with middle-lottery finishes.

Thus, my advice to those eastern teams who think they could sneak in and get killed by the Celtics: stop. Being the 7th worst team in the league is a nice position this year. I'd rather be there than be the 8th seed in the playoffs, quite honestly. There are only 7 or 8 guys that are really getting buzz in this draft; after that, it's a toss up. Plus, you might have a good shot at getting a high pick. Yes, I'm telling all of you not named Philly or Atlanta to think about the ol' tanker. Trust me, it's not such a bad idea this year.